Adam Isacson

Defense, security, borders, migration, and human rights in Latin America and the United States. May not reflect my employer’s consensus view.

Archives

April 2018

Some articles I found interesting this morning

(Even more here)

April 30, 2018

Bolivia

It was as affectionate as it was clear: “Que descanse.” Let him rest. Let someone else have a chance to govern

Brazil

  • Julia Michaels, Crooked Rio (Rio Real (Brazil), April 30, 2018).

In the absence of official plans, targets, a budget or accountability, civil society has taken up the job of monitoring the intervention

Brazil, Venezuela

The population of Boa Vista, the state capital, ballooned over the past few years as some 50,000 Venezuelans resettled here. They now make up roughly 10 percent of the population

Colombia

Gordillo Vélez, Fiscal 11 Especializado contra el Crimen Organizado, planteó graves referencias discriminatorias, racistas y condenatorias, señalando a sus pobladores de “auxiliar” a las guerrillas y a las bandas criminales que pululan en sus territorios

 

En este momento de posible desencanto con la paz, los escritos y la memoria de personas como Marc deben hacernos perseverar en este esfuerzo por materializar esta paz imperfecta y frágil

La guerra en Arauca sigue, y la violencia viene de todos los lados. Mientras tanto, la población afectada espera con tanta esperanza como escepticismo a la paz

El organismo respondió a una publicación del Wall Street Journal, según la cual, existe un video en el que el ex jefe negociador de las Farc supuestamente “habla con un asociado de un narcotraficante mexicano conocido”

The latest investigation into an ex-commander, a 62-year-old hard-line communist named Luciano Marín—better known by the alias Ivan Marquez and now a designated Colombian senator—stems from a cellphone video

That peace deal was supposed to put an end to more than half a century of war, but in much of rural Colombia, the demobilisation has merely opened the way for other armed groups

Mexico

During a 20-minute speech, Pence repeatedly called agents heroes, saying they have a tough and dangerous job

The case sheds light on the broader impact that the militarization of public security has had on large parts of the country since troops were first mobilized for anti-narcotics operations in 2006

La presencia de un avión del ejército de Estados Unidos se debe a la instalación de un radar, en cooperación con las fuerzas armadas del gobierno mexicano

“The country has changed more than him,” said Francisco Abundis, head of the Parametria polling firm. “There is an atmosphere that is anti-system, anti-government. He represents this well”

The migrants were told Sunday afternoon that the immigration officials could not process their claims, and they would have to spend the night on the Mexican side of the border

This lengthy process doesn’t reflect anarchy. This reflects a nation functioning under the rule of law

Nicaragua

Esta fue la segunda manifestación multitudinaria en menos de una semana en que los nicaragüenses exigieron justicia después que las protestas de estudiantes contra la reforma de la ley del seguro social provocaran una dura represión

El periodista Tim Rogers se vio obligado a salir de Nicaragua debido a que se sintió amenazado por las grupos sandinistas que lo señalan de ser de la CIA

Peru

  • Patricia Montero, Los Otros (La Republica (Peru), April 30, 2018).

Otras cifras que se han elevado para nuestro pesar: la de los desaparecidos durante el conflicto armado que vivió el Perú debido a la insania de los criminales terroristas y, en menor grado pero innegable, al abuso de un sector de las fuerzas armadas y policiales

Western Hemisphere Regional

I believe both are sincere in their desire to stanch the flow of Latino immigration — not, I strongly suspect, because of drugs or crime, but because they loathe the demographic and cultural change that is taking place

During the Obama administration, Homan was seen as a loyal civil servant who was willing to compromise. Some of his former colleagues have been shocked by his rhetoric under Trump

The day ahead: April 30, 2018

I’ll be hard to reach all day. (How to contact me)

A full day of meetings. Internal staff meetings at WOLA all morning. Then the committee that chooses the Institute for Policy Studies’ Letelier-Moffitt Human Rights Award meets mid-day to select this year’s winners. Then there’s a discussion with a visiting Colombia peace process monitor at USIP. I won’t be easy to contact today.

The week ahead

I’m in Washington all five days this week, with a pretty heavy schedule of meetings and events on Monday, Tuesday, and Friday. On one of the other days (probably Thursday) I hope to go off the grid and do a large amount of writing.

On Friday I’m a panelist at a closed-door State Department discussion of Colombia; I’m almost done with my presentation for that. This should be a good week to finish, or nearly finish, the paper on Colombia that I’ll be presenting on a panel at the Latin American Studies Association conference at the end of May.

Latin America-related events in Washington this week

Monday, April 30, 2018

  • 9:00–10:30 at the Atlantic Council: “Venezuela’s Humanitarian Crisis: Searching for Relief” (RSVP required).
  • 2:30–5:00 at the Inter-American Dialogue: “Dialogue with the Candidates for the Inter-American Court of Human Rights” (RSVP required).

Tuesday, May 1, 2018

  • 8:40–10:30 at the Inter-American Dialogue: “Preparing Effective School Leaders: Lessons from Argentina” (RSVP required).

Wednesday, May 2, 2018

  • 10:30–11:30 at the Council of the Americas: “The Future of Work: A Conversation with Senator Esteban Bullrich” (RSVP required).
  • 12:30–1:30 at the Atlantic Council: “Mexican Presidential Candidate Series: A Conversation with Salomón Chertorivski” (RSVP required).
  • 1:00–2:30 at the Wilson Center: “A Conversation with Senator Esteban Bullrich” (RSVP required).

Thursday, May 3, 2018

  • 9:00–11:00 at the Inter-American Dialogue: “Inside Perspectives on Possible Scenarios in Venezuela” (RSVP required).
  • 2:00–3:00 at the American Enterprise Institute: “View from the summit: A conversation with Ambassador Carlos Trujillo on President Trump’s strategy in the Americas” (RSVP required).

Coca in Colombia: what are the options?

Revised 9:00AM on 4/29/18: I added two more options to the table based on a suggestion from Twitter user @gabrielvc.

Colombia’s government, faced with record-high levels of coca cultivation, is considering using drones to spray herbicides over the fields.

This is less indiscriminate and risky to public health than spraying from aircraft, a program the U.S. government paid for between 1994 and 2015. It’s safer for the eradicators, who would be less vulnerable to snipers, ambushes, landmines, and booby traps in the fields.

But ultimately even a billion-dollar swarm of drones wouldn’t solve Colombia’s coca problem. Here’s a really simplified matrix I threw together today illustrating why, by looking at all the main options.

As you can see here, in my view, only one of the options promises to bring coca cultivation under control in the long term. That’s the one where Colombia actually governs its territory effectively with a minimum of corruption or abuse. That’s the hardest of these options to pursue, and the least immediately rewarding. But all of the others are just partial fixes.

Here it is at Google Sheets.
And here’s a PDF version, which is probably easier to read.

(This matrix leaves out the “legalize cocaine” option, which isn’t a near-term possibility. Because the drug is more addictive than most, legalization advocates confront a widespread belief that legalized use would carry too high a social cost.)

Some articles I found interesting this morning

(Even more here)

April 27, 2018

Brazil

Over the next two months, the number of shootouts rose to 1,502

Colombia

Santos, saddled with a sluggish economy at the end of his second term, has struggled to ensure order of the sort the rebels, albeit murderous, once imposed across parts of the Andean nation

26 personas más que en el mismo periodo de 2017

La tendencia es que sea más mafioso que militar, anónimo, descentralizado, desarticulado y con relaciones más horizontales que jerárquicas entre los agentes

Colombia, Venezuela

Just 6 percent of the appeal has so far been raised, and many observers believe the figure is far too low to begin with

The WFP program will rely initially on the agency’s own emergency funds. Barreto characterized it as potentially the largest U.N. food program in Latin America’s recent history

Ecuador

Es necesario mejorar mucho más en tres áreas: entrenamiento a policías y militares; en tecnología y en compartir información e inteligencia

Guatemala

Mr Browder heard of the case of a Russian family who had sought refuge in Guatemala but ended up jailed there instead. He has accused CICIG of taking money from the Russian government, and persuaded America’s Congress to hear his concerns

Mexico

The exponential growth in sales to Mexico has not been accompanied by controls to track where the guns go or to ensure that they do not land in the hands of police or military units that are credibly alleged to have committed gross human rights abuses or colluded with criminal groups

CEDEHM señaló que la respuesta del Estado mexicano, sobre que la desaparición fue realizada por el crimen organizado, es una estrategia para legitimar la militarización en México, y acusó al gobierno de negar su responsabilidad

The group is planning to walk en masse on Sunday to the border crossing leading to southern San Diego, with those planning to petition for asylum presenting themselves to American border officials

Mexico, Western Hemisphere Regional

The 2018 Marine Leaders of the Americas Conference (MLAC) took place in Mexico City, Mexico, March 12th-16th

Nicaragua

Without Venezuela’s largesse, Mr Ortega can no longer maintain the public spending that kept dissent at bay

Western Hemisphere Regional

Officials say that threatening adults with criminal charges and prison time would be the “most effective” way to reverse the steadily rising number of attempted crossings

From last October to the end of the year, officials at the agency’s Office of Refugee Resettlement tried to reach 7,635 children and their sponsors, Mr. Wagner testified. From these calls, officials learned that 6,075 children remained with their sponsors

The following report sets out the broad parameters of Latin America ‘s crime challenges and explores innovations in promoting public safety and citizen security

Use of Deadly Force in Toronto, and At the Border

Watch this New York Times explainer video showing Toronto Police Constable Ken Lam de-escalating a situation, avoiding the use of deadly force, as he singlehandedly arrests Alek Minassian, the driver of a van that ran over dozens of pedestrians on April 24. Then contrast it to the 2012 shooting of a Mexican 16-year-old through the U.S.-Mexico border fence in Nogales, for which a court acquitted U.S. Border Patrol Agent Lonnie Swartz a day earlier.

As the Times describes it:

First, Constable Lam turned off the siren blaring from his car. This immediately lowered the temperature, experts said, making it easier for him to communicate with the suspect. Also, by leaning into the car, the officer is indicating that he is not in a rush.…
When the suspect yells that he has a gun in his pocket, Constable Lam replies: “I don’t care. Get down.”…
Next, the video shows, Constable Lam steps out and away from the cover of his car, indicating perhaps that he has assessed that the object in Mr. Minassian’s hand was not a gun.
Constable Lam then issues his first warning: “Get down or you’ll get shot.”…
Constable Lam then backs away from Mr. Minassian, who walks toward him, threatening object in hand. In response, the officer appears to replace his gun with a baton, visibly de-escalating the threat to Mr. Minassian.…
Then, Constable Lam confidently and slowly approaches the suspect with his baton in hand. By the time the officer reaches him, Mr. Minassian has dropped the object in his hand, raised his hands in surrender, turned and laid down on his stomach with his hands behind his back.

Now, every case is different. But compare this to the October 10, 2012 nighttime use-of-deadly-force incident at the U.S.-Mexico border in Nogales, Arizona-Sonora. Agent Lonnie Swartz killed José Antonio Elena Rodríguez, a 16-year-old who was likely throwing rocks over the border fence.

From The Arizona Republic:

As rocks begin to hit the fence and ground on the U.S. side, one of the Border Patrol agents by the fence retreats for cover. A Nogales police officer also retreats and places his K-9 partner into his vehicle. All in a matter of seconds.
Swartz, with gun drawn, walks to the fence and starts shooting. “Shots fired, shots fired,” someone calls on the radio. He fires 13 rounds, stops, reloads his pistol and fires three more rounds—16 shots in 34 seconds, according to the prosecution.

From The Tucson Sentinel:

On Thursday, the jury watched several different parts of the model, which showed that Swartz was about 90 feet away when he fired his first salvo of shots. Swartz then moved to two different firing positions along the fence, emptying an entire magazine of .40-caliber hollow-points from his H&K P2000 before reloading, and firing three more shots.
Swartz later returned to collect his magazine, before he went over to a telephone pole, vomited and began crying, according to fellow agents’ testimony last week.

On April 23, after a monthlong trial that was the first of a Border Patrol agent for a cross-border shooting, an Arizona jury acquitted Agent Swartz of second-degree murder. A juror said “the evidence showed the Border Patrol agent perceived that lives were in danger.” But the jury ended up deadlocked on lesser manslaughter charges. Prosecutors are deciding whether to pursue a manslaughter retrial.

Here’s a photo of the site where the shooting took place, taken in December 2013. That’s me in the lower right, taking a picture. I’m standing in the very spot where Elena Rodríguez, the 16-year-old, fell to the curb and died. Police would find ten bullet wounds in his body.

As you can see, the top of the border fence looms about three stories overhead from here: any rocks thrown would have been bloopers more than line drives. Agent Swartz knew that using less-than-lethal force was an option; he had reported responding to six earlier rock-throwing incidents, according to the Tucson Sentinel, “either by throwing a ‘stingball’—a grenade-like weapon that explodes and throws out rubber balls—or by firing a pepper-ball launcher—a paintball gun that fires balls made from a pepper-spray-like concoction.” But he did not use those options this time.

Based on this and other incidents, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) asked the Police Executive Research Forum (PERF) for recommendations in 2013, and in 2014 it released a new use-of-force policy. Here is what PERF said about rock-throwing incidents at the border:

Review of shooting cases involving rock throwers revealed that in some cases agents put themselves in harm’s way by remaining in close proximity to the rock throwers when moving out of range was a reasonable option. Too many cases do not appear to meet the test of objective reasonableness with regard to the use of deadly force. In cases where clear options to the use of deadly force exist and are not utilized in rock-throwing incidents, corrective actions should be taken. CBP should improve and refine tactics and policy that focus on operational safety, prioritization of essential activities near the border fence, and use of specialized less lethal weapons with regard to rock throwing incidents. The state CBP policy should be: “Officers/agents are prohibited from using deadly force against subjects throwing objects not capable of causing serious physical injury or death to them.”

CBP ultimately went with this standard in its revised policy:

Authorized Officers/Agents shall not discharge their firearms in response to thrown or launched projectiles unless the officer/agent has a reasonable belief, based on the totality of circumstances (to include the size and nature of the projectiles), that the subject of such force poses an imminent danger of serious physical injury or death to the officer/agent or to another person. Officers/agents may be able to obtain a tactical advantage in these situations, through measures such as seeking cover or distancing themselves from the immediate area of danger.

Since then, deadly-force incidents have declined. The border isn’t Toronto, but it’s better. Still, a post-trial statement from the president of the Border Patrol union, Art Del Cueto, shows that the culture of justifying deadly force, even under questionable circumstances, is deeply rooted.

“Lonnie Swartz took the extra step to defend himself and to defend the life of fellow agents around; so he pulled out his weapon and fired at the threat,” Del Cueto said. “A lot has been said that he continued firing, but the threat had not ended. There was still rocks coming at the agents, still rocks coming at Lonnie, and he was shooting at the direction where the rocks are coming from.”

Similarly, Swartz’s defense attorney, Sean Chapman, employed a line of argument that Border Patrol is somehow different from other law enforcement, even portraying it as “military,” as the Tuscson Sentinel reported. (It’s not. Border Patrol agents are civilians.)

Throughout his opening statement, Chapman emphasized how agents are different from people like the jury or the attorneys. He said the Border Patrol is essentially a military organization created to enforce federal law where there’s a risk of violence all the time. “It’s the mindset that they have, the way they are trained. … They don’t think like we do; they think based on their training.”

That’s probably not true, at least not anymore. But if it is, then that training must continue to change. Agents are not soldiers, and they are not in an armed conflict. Deadly force must always be a last resort in law enforcement as Constable Lam showed us all so well this week.

The past week in Colombia’s peace process

(Still catching up. This is the week of April 8-14. But this synopsis of the Santrich case is still worth your time, there’s no similar synthesis out there in English.)

FARC Leader Jesús Santrich Arrested, May Be Extradited

On the evening of April 9, police arrested demobilized FARC leader Seuxis Pausivas Hernández, alias “Jesús Santrich,” at his home near the Bogotá airport. The arrest complies with an Interpol Red Notice, issued days after the U.S. Department of Justice’s Southern District of New York convinced a grand jury to indict Santrich for conspiring to send cocaine to the United States. The guerrilla leader is now being held in the concrete-walled Bogotá headquarters (often called the “bunker”) of Colombia’s prosecutor-general’s office (Fiscalía).

An ideologist more than a fighter—he nearly always wears sunglasses due to poor eyesight—the 50-year-old Santrich was a fixture during all four years of peace talks in Havana, often delivering the FARC’s declarations to reporters after negotiating sessions. “Santrich was, by far, the most radical, intelligent and intransigent of the plenipotentiary negotiators,” Juanita León of La Silla Vacía wrote after his arrest. “In addition to a close friendship with [chief FARC negotiator] Iván Márquez, Santrich has much leadership among the guerrilla base, because he defended several points that were important to them.” In mid-2017, Santrich went on a lengthy hunger strike to pressure the government to speed its promised releases of amnestied guerrilla prisoners.

The U.S. prosectors’ indictment of Santrich, dated April 4, accuses the guerrilla leader of agreeing to export ten tons of cocaine to the United States in exchange for US$15 million. It states that the events in question took place starting in June 2017. The Havana peace accord protects FARC members from extradition to the United States for crimes committed before the accord’s December 2016 ratification. The accusations against Santrich, however, fall outside of that timeframe, making his extradition to the United States a distinct near-term possibility.

As a result, León contends, his arrest “is the greatest challenge to the peace process since Congress accepted the re-negotiated accord” after voters rejected the first version in an October 2016 plebiscite.

Over the course of the week, Colombian prosecutors made public some of the evidence against Santrich. “Very few cases have so much probatory accreditation [evidence] as this one,” Chief Prosecutor (Fiscal General) Néstor Humberto Martínez said. The story is as follows:

Mid-2017: members of the Fiscalía’s Technical Investigations Corps (CTI) investigating possible irregularities in healthcare contracts for demobilized guerrillas begin to focus on an associate of Santrich’s, Marlon Marín, a 39-year-old lawyer who is Iván Márquez’s nephew.

Telephone intercepts detect periodic references to a group calling itself “The Family.” It apparently includes Marín; Fabio Simón Younes, director of a Florida-based company listed as “inactive”; and Armando Gómez, a businessman and the father of a Colombian beauty queen. The intercepts include conversations with Mexicans about a possible drug trafficking operation. A Fiscalía investigator shares with Chief Prosecutor Martínez his suspicion that the Mexicans may be DEA agents. Martínez checks with U.S. embassy contacts, who confirm that they are. (Or they may be genuine Mexican traffickers with a DEA mole in their midst—it’s not clear.)

August 14, 2017: In a phone conversation Gómez, the businessman, mentions “five televisions that the buyers are interested in testing out,” an apparent reference to five kilograms of cocaine whose quality the Mexicans insist on evaluating before moving ahead with any deal. He says that the sample is for “Marco,” one of the Mexicans, who are apparently Sinaloa cartel representatives.

October 2017: The phone calls intensify. Before sealing the deal, the Mexicans tell Marín that they wish to meet with someone of higher rank within his organization. That is when Santrich’s name comes up in the conversations. Marín begins trying to convince Santrich to meet with the would-be Mexican purchasers.

October 18, 2017: Marín is recorded trying to convince Santrich’s assistant to get Santrich to meet with the Mexicans. Marín says he just needs “the blind man” to “simply say to them, everything’s cool, everything’s good, it’s all up to me, we’re good to go.” Sometime after that, Santrich agrees to meet with the Mexicans on the condition that Marín be present.

Late October 2017: Fulfilling the Mexicans’ precondition for holding a high-level meeting, Gómez meets with the Mexicans at a Bogotá hotel and hands them the five kilograms of cocaine (the “televisions”). The Mexicans later agree that the cocaine is of good quality.

Early November 2017: Santrich hosts the Mexicans at a pre-dawn meeting at his house. The Mexicans say they are in the employ of Rafael Caro Quintero, a top figure in the Sinaloa cartel who was released from prison on a technicality in August 2013, early in President Enrique Peña Nieto’s term. Caro had been given a 40-year term for the 1985 torture and murder of DEA agent Enrique Camarena; he remains an archenemy of the U.S. agency. His release after 28 years angered the U.S. government, distancing U.S.-Mexican relations. Upon gaining his freedom, Caro instantly disappeared.

One of the Mexican group takes an incriminatory photo with a camera apparently hidden in his clothing. The photo shows Santrich seated at the head of a table alongside Marín.

In the meeting, Marín tells the Mexicans that “The Family” has control of several cocaine laboratories. They agree to send seven tons in March, and the remaining three later.

The Mexicans ask that the purchase take place on U.S. soil (though it apparently ends up happening in Barranquilla). They give Santrich what they call a “token” to prove the identity of the FARC’s contact when the transaction takes place: a photocopy of a U.S. dollar bill that will be in the cocaine buyer’s possession. Sometime later, the DEA seizes the token in Florida during an apparent operation against “The Family.” U.S. prosecutors now have it in their custody, as evidence.

Santrich gives the Mexican visitors an ink drawing (he is a prolific artist). He inscribes it, “For don Rafa Caro, with esteem and hope for peace. Santrich.” It, too, is now in U.S. prosecutors’ possession.

Sometime afterward, Younes, the “Family” member, begins making connections in Miami for aircraft.

February 2018: “The Family” tells the Mexicans that they are having difficulty obtaining the cocaine because of recent “bombings.” Colombian investigators note that during this time period, Colombia’s army bombed some guerrilla dissident group encampments in southern Colombia. The Fiscalía believes that the cocaine suppliers are in Cauca and Nariño departments in southwestern Colombia, a zone with a significant presence of un-demobilized or recidivist FARC members.

Probably March 2018: Santrich gets a call from someone named “Fabio,” who warns him that there is a plan afoot to arrest and extradite him. Fabio says that “a man in the Police” told him. “We got sold out,” Prosecutor-General Martínez reportedly says. Sometime afterward, U.S. prosecutors decide to go ahead and indict Santrich based on existing evidence. This happens on April 4, and Santrich is arrested on April 9.

The arrest set off alarms within the FARC, for whom non-extradition for crimes committed before the accord was a non-negotiable point during the Havana talks. In at least some of the “Territorial Training and Reconciliation Spaces” (ETCR), the sites where much of the ex-guerrillas remain congregated and protected by the security forces, “they were glued to the television and the situation was very tense,” La Silla Vacía reported. “‘There’s a lot of anxiety, they’re basically afraid that now they can grab anybody,’ a source in one of the spaces told us. One of the FARC’s leaders in the south told us: ‘if this is breakfast, what will dinner be like.’” Protests continued at the remote sites all week.

Iván Márquez, the FARC’s former chief negotiator and the uncle of co-conspirator Marín, told reporters that the arrest of his friend (and fellow hardliner) Santrich was “the worst moment in the peace process.” He called the case a setup arranged by the Fiscalía and the United States that will sow distrust throughout the guerrilla ranks, hinting that many might be tempted to re-arm. “With Jesús Santrich’s arrest, the process is threatening to be a real failure,” reads a FARC statement. “The coincidence with Saturday’s visit of Donald Trump draws my attention,” said FARC legal advisor, Spanish lawyer Enrique Santiago. (Trump was to stop in Colombia after the April 13-14 Summit of the Americas in Peru. Later in the week, he canceled his entire trip.)

FARC leaders demanded to meet with President Juan Manuel Santos, and a delegation led by the party’s maximum leader, Rodrigo Londoño alias Timochenko, did so on April 11. All agreed that Santrich’s due process rights would be fully respected. They also agreed to establish (yet another) commission to speed implementation of the government’s peace accord commitments, many of which are lagging badly.

“I won’t extradite anyone for crimes committed before the accord’s signing and in relation to the conflict,” Santos said in a carefully worded statement. “Having said that, if after receiving due process and with irrefutable proof there are grounds for extradition for crimes committed after the accord’s signing, I will not hesitate to authorize it, based on the Supreme Court’s finding.”

In an April 11 statement, Timochenko said that the FARC remains committed to the peace accord. “Colombia’s peace isn’t conditioned on the problems, or the people, who form part of the organization,” he said, appealing for unity among the ex-combatants. That same day, though, an angry Iván Márquez told reporters, “One mustn’t lie like in this case, just to obstruct the progress of peace. Santrich told me: ‘the second one will be you [Márquez].’”

While this timetable of publicly available evidence points to Santrich’s guilt, it also shows him to be a reluctant conspirator, pulled into a meeting at the repeated insistence of Marín, who seems to handle all of the details. The right thing for Santrich to do, of course, would have been to report Marín, his friend’s nephew, to the police—not a natural instinct for a lifelong insurgent. Instead, he fell into the sort of trap that other guerrilla leaders are doubtless aware could easily ensnare them.

What happens next will be a big test of the peace process. It could bolster support in public opinion, taking away critics’ argument that the peace accord grants the FARC too much impunity. However, it also feeds into the narrative, common among right-wing critics, that the FARC are still up to their old ways. On the other side, any perception that Santrich’s due process is being denied, and that he is being extradited in haste, may send dozens or hundreds of ex-guerrillas back into the jungle for fear of sharing his fate.

The next steps will also test the new judicial institutions being set up to implement the accords. Santrich’s case must begin in the Special Jurisdiction for Peace (JEP), whose Review Chamber will have to take the step of finding that the evidence points to crimes committed after the accord’s signing. The JEP would then have to turn the case over to Colombia’s regular criminal justice system, where Santrich could be subject to longer prison sentences for war crimes, or to extradition.

The JEP, which is to try cases of war crimes and other aspects of ex-guerrillas’ legal status like narcotrafficking charges, has barely begun to function. The Constitutional Court hasn’t yet finished reviewing its enabling law, passed at the end of November, and the law to govern its day-to-day functioning hasn’t yet been introduced in Congress.

Since the JEP is supposed to get the first “bite at the apple” in cases like these, there is some debate in Bogotá about whether it was correct for the Fiscalía—Colombia’s regular justice system—to have been the agency to arrest him. Opponents say that the Fiscalía may have violated procedure and given Santrich’s lawyers a technicality that they might try to use to get the case dropped. Proponents, though, say there was too great a risk that Santrich would flee once he heard about the indictment in New York.

It;s not clear when the JEP will make its determination about whether Santrich committed an extraditable offense after the accords’ signing, a momentous decision essentially kicking a top guerrilla negotiator out of the peace process. Meanwhile, though, the United States must issue a formal extradition request within 60 days, which must then go to Supreme Court review and finally to the President for signature.

In the meantime, Santrich is in a cell in the Fiscalía’s “bunker,” where he has been on another hunger strike, refusing food since his arrest.

He was to occupy one of the five House of Representatives seats that the peace accord granted the FARC for the 2018-2022 legislative session that starts in July. Colombian law states that when a member of Congress runs afoul of justice, his or her seat must remain empty for the remainder of the legislative session. It is not yet clear whether Santrich’s absence, then, reduces the FARC’s House delegation to four seats. The current president of the chamber, Rodrigo Lara, said there should be no “empty seat,” that the FARC could replace Santrich because he hadn’t been sworn in yet. (Lara, incidentally, is no peace proponent: during the last legislative session he helped to delay or water down much legislation to implement the accords.)

Urabeños Attack Kills 8 Police

An attack with explosives killed eight Colombian police and wounded two more on the morning of April 11 in the rural zone of San José de Urabá, Antioquia, in northwestern Colombia. The zone is a stronghold of the Urabeños, Colombia’s largest organized crime/paramilitary organization (also known as the Gulf Clan, the Usuga Clan, and the Gaitanistas). Authorities blame local Urabeños leader alias “Chiquito Malo” (“Bad Little Boy”) for the attack.

The explosive destroyed a vehicle carrying police who were accompanying a visit from the government’s Land Restitution Unit. Urabá is one of the most challenging territories in Colombia for land restitution: there, paramilitaries and local landowners massively displaced communities of small farmers in the 1990s and early 2000s, and are resisting efforts to return landholdings to their rightful owners.

Kidnapped Ecuadorian Reporters Believed Dead

An apparent communiqué from a FARC dissident organization stated that the group has killed two Ecuadorian journalists and their driver. The “Oliver Sinisterra Front,” active in Nariño, near the Ecuador border, had kidnapped the three men on March 26. Its statement reads that the governments of Ecuador and Colombia “didn’t want to save the lives fo the three retained people and chose the military route, making landings in several points where the retained people were located, which produced their death.”

Upon hearing that Javier Ortega and Paul Rivas Bravo of Quito’s daily El Comercio were likely dead, along with their driver Efraín Segarra, Ecuadorian President Lenin Moreno left the Summit of the Americas meetings in Lima, Peru. At week’s end, he gave the dissident group, led by former FARC member Wálter Arizara alias “Guacho,” 12 hours to produce proof that the hostages were still alive.

Earlier, President Moreno had lamented that Colombia’s persistent conflict was reaching into Ecuador. He blamed his predecessor, Rafael Correa (in whose government he was vice president, but who is now his political enemy) for allowing problems to fester at the border. “Of course, we lived in peace, but we lived in a peace in which drugs were allowed to transit through our territory.” Ecuador’s border regions have long been an important transshipment point for cocaine, and Colombian armed groups have freely crossed for decades. Security analysts often refer to an informal arrangement in the border zone, in which Ecuadorian forces would not confront Colombian armed groups as long as they abstained from inciting violence or harming Ecuadorian citizens. If such an agreement exists, Guacho’s group has violated it several times this year with attacks on Ecuadorian security forces.

ELN-EPL Violence Continues in Catatumbo

Fighting between the ELN and a smaller, local guerrilla group, the Popular Liberation Army (EPL, which the government often calls “Los Pelusos”) continues to generate a humanitarian crisis in Catatumbo, a barely governed agricultural region in Norte de Santander department, near the Venezuelan border, that includes one of the country’s largest concentrations of coca. The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) has documented the displacement of about 1,350 people in the region in the month since a longtime arrangement between the ELN and the EPL broke down.

Both groups have been active in Catatumbo for decades. The EPL, with perhaps 200-300 members, can trace its lineage back to a remnant that refused to demobilize when a Maoist insurgency with the same name negotiated a peace agreement in the late 1980s. The EPL lost its longtime leader (alias “Megateo”) to a military attack in late 2015, and a year later the FARC—also present in Catatumbo—pulled out and demobilized in compliance with the peace accord. This opened up lucrative spaces for cocaine smuggling and other organized crime activity.

These changes upended the cordial ELN-EPL relationship, and fighting broke out between the two groups in mid-March. As both have deep roots in Catatumbo communities, the region’s population is caught in the crossfire; schools have suspended classes and many businesses are shuttered.

In-Depth Reading

The day ahead: April 27, 2018

I’ll be most reachable in the morning. (How to contact me)

I’ll be writing all morning, both at home and in the office, about Colombia. In the afternoon I’ve got some internal meetings at WOLA, and will attend a memorial service at Georgetown University for Marc Chernick, who taught me so much about Colombia since I first met him in 1997.

Some articles I found interesting this morning

Jorge Cabrera / Reuters photo at The New York Times. Caption: “A protest on Monday in Managua against police violence and Mr. Ortega’s government.”

(Even more here)

April 26, 2018

Colombia

There’s a big gap between devising a perfect plan and actually implementing that plan

The case of Juan Pablo Rodríguez Barragán raises questions about diplomatic immunity and international justice

Lo que hemos logrado juntos, el Comando Sur y Colombia es algo de lo que todos podemos enorgullecernos

Colombia, Ecuador

La Fiscalía General del Estado ha iniciado una investigación previa urgente contra el expresidente de la República Rafael Correa, por los supuestos aportes económicos de las Farc a la campaña

Ecuador

El Gobierno ecuatoriano suscribió ayer, en la Comandancia de Policía, en Quito, un memorando de entendimiento con la Agencia Antidrogas (DEA) y el Servicio de Inmigración y Control de Aduanas de Estados Unidos (ICE)

El Salvador

The best way to diminish the gang’s appeal to vulnerable young men is to think of it as more of a social organization than a criminal enterprise

Mexico

What happened to three cousins who disappeared after being detained by Mexican soldiers will be taken up by the Inter-American Court of Human Rights — the first case related to Mexico’s drug war to come before the court.

U.S. lawyers planned to lead clinics later this week on U.S. asylum law to tell them what to expect when they seek asylum

Nicaragua

Tres jóvenes que participaban en las protestas autoconvocadas y un ciudadano que transitaba por una calle, ajeno a los incidentes, fueron ultimados a balazos por agentes de la Policía Nacional

A new country is emerging from the dried cocoon of Sandinista dictatorship. The process is just starting, but Nicaragua is changing

Nicaragua is undergoing its biggest uprising since the civil war ended in 1990

Western Hemisphere Regional

Democrats pressed McAleenan about whether he would prioritize construction of a border wall over the staffing shortages and improvements to the ports of entry

April 26, 2018, 12:01 PM

The Pan-American Health Organization headquarters, plunked down on a little-noticed spot near the State Department, is like a little slice of 1960 Brasília in the middle of Washington DC.

The day ahead: April 26, 2018

I’ll be mostly hard to contact today. (How to contact me)

Sort of a busy day today. In the morning I’m at a book launch for a longtime colleague at George Washington University. In the afternoon, I’m helping with a discussion at USIP with some visitors who work with human rights defenders and conflict victims in and around Medellín. I have to leave work on the early side for an event at my kid’s school. So I’ll be hard to contact today.

Colombia’s Grade on Implementing the FARC Peace Deal So Far Is a C Minus

Published this evening at World Politics Review:

Harsh perhaps, but sadly true: Colombia is dropping the ball badly on implementing the FARC peace accord.

Its 1,300 words are behind a paywall. Here’s a sample:

On reintegration of ex-fighters: Incredibly, to this day the implementation process is still missing one of its most essential elements: a written plan for how to help all former guerrillas earn legal livelihoods and adjust to post-combat life. As a result, with so many ex-combatants left idle, “dissident” groups of rearmed guerrillas are growing fast: Their membership now totals about 1,200, up from 300 a year ago.

On filling “ungoverned spaces”: Strangest of all, the Colombian government just hasn’t been filling the territorial vacuum. Except for infrequent visits from government agencies created to implement the accord, mainly to hold meetings, the presence of the state has changed little in vast areas of the countryside that were historically under FARC domination or influence.

On U.S. policy: It’s so important that the U.S. Congress undid the Trump administration’s proposed 2018 aid cuts to Colombia, maintaining current funding levels for programs that are crucial to the early phases of the peace deal’s implementation. U.S. officials also need to be aware that helping Colombia to govern ungoverned areas, as envisioned in the accord, offers the best hope for permanent reductions in coca cultivation. People don’t grow illicit crops where there’s a government presence.

Go here to read the whole thing.

Some articles I found interesting this morning

(Even more here)

April 25, 2018

Bolivia

These gender-focused initiatives, paired with poverty reduction and increased state support for mothers, contributed to an 84 percent decrease in the number of women incarcerated for drug offenses between 2012 and 2017

Brazil

Their viewpoint reveals organizations that are unapologetic for their criminal activities but not likely to attack a military they see as a temporary inconvenience, at worst

Colombia

 

El panorama es mucho menos alentador que el retratado ayer por Villegas en el Congreso. En estas regiones, la gente que entrevistamos siente que la oportunidad que abrió el Acuerdo con las Farc de construir la paz se está diluyendo

El exnegociador de la guerrilla en los diálogos de paz manifestó que si la crisis del proceso continúa permanecerá en la vereda Miravalle, San Vicente del Caguán

Colombia, Ecuador

Para familiares como Ricardo Rivas, hermano del fotoperiodista asesinado, la gestión del Gobierno fue un fracaso, ya que no se logró la liberación con vida de sus allegados. Ahora reclaman la repatriación de los cuerpos

Guatemala

The case of Salvador de León is the first in which an army colonel has been implicated as a key player in the money laundering operations of a gang

Mexico

“We will be evaluating whether to seek a retrial on the manslaughter charges,” First Assistant U.S. Attorney Elizabeth A. Strange said

The most likely thing to glimpse along that divide is evidence of the countless billions of dollars that have been spent there over the past 30 years to build the most gigantic border-enforcement apparatus in US history

The migrant caravan is expected to arrive in Tijuana later this week. It is not yet clear how quickly CBP will be able to process them

Riodoce’s editor said the suspect was arrested in the border city of Tijuana and was a member of an organized crime group. He declined to say which one, but said it had to do with the war that the Sinaloa cartel is in

Prosecutors in the western state of Jalisco said late Monday the three were abducted by the Jalisco New Generation Cartel because they were filming a school project at a house used by the rival Nueva Plaza gang

En entrevista con EL UNIVERSAL, la diplomática, que dejará la embajada el 5 de mayo próximo, tras dos años de representar a su país, dijo que le habría gustado ver un México más seguro

Nicaragua

With freshly shaved heads and some bearing bruises they said were inflicted by police during their captivity, students were dropped along a highway on the outskirts of the capital

The president retains the support of the armed forces, and protesters have no figurehead to rally behind

Venezuela

The United States should work with the Lima Group countries to coordinate their national-level sanctions with our own growing efforts to target the Maduro regime’s criminal elements

Western Hemisphere Regional

CBP employees “have this extraordinary power, and they have a de facto immunity because they have no meaningful oversight and accountability”

Fifty-five percent of U.S. adults think deploying the National Guard to the border will be effective in the short term, but only 49 percent think it will be effective in the long term

This report is a preliminary effort by the IACHR to examine the issue of poverty from a human rights angle. From that perspective, people who live in poverty are no longer considered “recipients of charity” and are treated as rights holders instead

The judge stayed his decision for 90 days and gave the Department of Homeland Security, which administers the program, the opportunity to better explain its reasoning for canceling it

Colombia’s Dumbest Trafficker

In mid-March Jeremy McDermott, a longtime investigator of organized crime in the Americas, published a study at the site of InsightCrime, the organization he co-directs. He profiled the thriving new cohort of Colombian drug traffickers, which he calls the “fourth generation” of narcos, or just “the invisibles.”

With the FARC’s and AUC’s exits from the criminal scene, narcotrafficking has been left more exposed than ever, with nowhere to hide. Once identified by national and international authorities, the useful life of an important capo is short, at least unless he is prepared to live as a guerrilla in the jungle, passing from one shack to another every night, and renouncing the comforts and opportunities that a great fortune might offer. That’s why today’s narcotrafficker prefers to hide behind the facade of a successful businessman, avoiding the ostentation and extreme violence that characterized earlier generations.

In an English summary, McDermott added:

Colombian drug traffickers have learned that violence is bad for business. The new generation of traffickers have learned that anonymity is the ultimate protection, that “plata” (“silver”) is infinitely more effective than “plomo” (“lead,” as in bullets). …Today’s Colombian drug trafficker is more likely to be clad in Arturo Calle [Colombia’s equivalent of Men’s Wearhouse] than Armani, wear classic European shoes rather than alligator boots, drive a Toyota rather than a Ferrari, live in an upper middle class apartment rather than a mansion with gold taps. He will have the face of a respectable businessman.

With Colombia producing record-high amounts of cocaine, there is much money to be made as a drug trafficker today. But unlike past generations, the last thing a trafficker wants to be is high profile. It attracts too much attention.

But that’s exactly what Wálter Patricio Arizala Vernaza, alias “Guacho,” has chosen to do. In just a couple of months, this former FARC fighter has risen from obscurity to be possibly the most sought-after criminal in both Colombia and Ecuador. And it’s all due to his own actions.

Guacho gives a Colombian television interview, which is also a dumb move.

An Ecuadorian citizen from the border province of Esmeraldas, Arizala joined the FARC in 2007. He was a member of the group’s powerful Daniel Aldana Mobile Column, active in Nariño along the Colombia-Ecuador border. There, he specialized in explosives but was also found to be very good at math. He was promoted to management of the Column’s finances in a territory that today is the busiest cocaine superhighway in South America:

Guacho developed contacts with Mexican narcotraffickers who buy and transship cocaine in southwestern Colombia and northwestern Ecuador. This makes him the classic example of the mid-level guerrilla leader whose demobilization was so important for the peace process to guarantee: someone with contacts in the criminal underworld who would be tempted to abandon the peace process at the first lucrative opportunity. And that’s what he did: when the FARC headed to its demobilization sites in early 2017, Guacho went on the lam.

His “Oliver Sinisterra Front,” named for a FARC colleague killed in 2015, grew very fast, a rapid rise documented by the International Crisis Group’s Kyle Johnson in a piece published this week to Razón Pública. Guacho may now be commanding as many as 450 people. Many of them are former FARC militias in the port city of Tumaco, and many are fresh recruits. His group reportedly controls cocaine labs capable of producing at least 10 tons per month. It is currently the largest in an ever-shifting patchwork of criminal groups fighting for control of Tumaco, whose surrounding municipality (county) has more coca than any other in Colombia.

Guacho and his “front” could have kept a low profile and become quite wealthy, had they followed McDermott’s suggestion to use “plata” much more than “plomo,” seeking to corrupt and penetrate institutions.

Instead, though, they have picked spectacular fights with authorities on both sides of the border.

  • In November 2017, Guacho’s group attacked a checkpoint of Ecuador’s Special Mobile Antinarcotics Group (GEMA) with grenades and gunfire, killing four.
  • In January, it set off a car bomb outside a police station in Guacho’s hometown of San Lorenzo, Ecuador, that wounded 28 people. This was an apparent retaliation for an Ecuadorian police raid and search of his mother’s house.
  • In February, it launched a mortar at an Ecuadorian Army post, with no casualties.
  • On March 20, it set off a roadside bomb in Ecuador, killing four Ecuadorian soldiers and wounding ten.
  • On April 5, Guacho’s group knocked out an electric tower in Colombia, plunging Tumaco into darkness. This was an apparent retaliation for the Ecuadorian government arresting one of his brothers-in-law. Power lines again went down on April 18.

The most spectacular action, though, was the March 26 kidnapping of two reporters from Quito’s El Comercio newspaper, together with their driver. The captives’ plight became daily front page news in Ecuador. The #NosFaltan3 (“we’re missing 3”) hashtag continues to get constant use on social media. Sometime before April 13, Guacho’s group killed Javier Ortega, Paul Rivas Bravo, and Efraín Segarra on Colombia’s side of the border, under circumstances that have yet to be cleared up. Sometime last week, Guacho’s group kidnapped two more Ecuadorian citizens, Vanesa Velasco Pinargote and Oscar Efrén Villacís Gómez, who remain in custody.

Hostages Rivas, Ortega, and Segarra, murdered sometime before April 13.

From a drug trafficker’s perspective, these are incredibly stupid things to do. The message Guacho has sent is, “look at me, put a target on me, make me a top priority.” And indeed, Colombia and Ecuador have offered a combined reward of more than US$230,000 for information leading to his capture. Using McDermott’s frame, Wálter Arizara is a first or second-generation drug trafficker in a fourth-generation world.

Nine years ago Colombian Police Chief Gen. Óscar Naranjo (now the Vice President) said that the authorities had reduced the “useful lifespan” of the average top drug trafficker to 24 months, after which they are captured or killed. Today, a “well behaved” trafficker like one of McDermott’s “invisibles” may hang on for far longer. But for someone like Guacho, who has committed very grave errors, two years sounds like far too long an estimate.

The day ahead: April 25, 2018

I should be reachable much of the day. (How to contact me)

I’ve tried to steer meetings away from today, so I’m in the office, writing, mostly with the door closed.

I’m getting my backlog of weekly Colombia updates posted—the first week of April went up this morning. These take about 3 hours each—and they’re a necessary exercise to maintain any semblance of being an “expert”on this—but some of my weeks lately haven’t had 3 extra hours, so it’s catch-up time. I hope to post at least one more today and be caught up tomorrow.

The past week in Colombia’s peace process

(Catching up. This is the week of April 1-7.)

Concerns Emerge About Irregularities in Government Peace Fund

Prosecutor-General (Fiscal General) Néstor Humberto Martínez sent a letter to President Juan Manuel Santos alleging corruption and influence-peddling within government agencies administering projects to implement the FARC peace accord.

“According to evidence obtained through technical controls and legal surveillance, it is noted that there exists a network of intermediaries who may be interested in winning project contracts for certain businesspeople or contractors, in exchange for undue economic benefits like percentages of these contracts’ value,” the letter reads. El Tiempo reported that the prosecutor’s office has videos and audios of this network’s members requesting payment for help getting chosen to carry out lucrative infrastructure, agriculture, fish-farming and similar project contracts for ex-combatants or communities affected by the conflict. The same intermediaries, El Colombiano reported, then pay bribes to contracting officials. The corruption extends to firms that oversee and evaluate the contracts.

The Fiscal said he decided to make his office’s investigation public after El Tiempo revealed a letter from the ambassadors of Norway, Sweden, and Switzerland to a vice-minister of the Treasury Ministry. That letter voices concern about the slowness and lack of transparency of contracting for projects funded by the Sustainable Colombia Fund (FCS), a US$200 million “peace checkbook” to which the three governments have contributed.

The ambassadors asked the Treasury Ministry for a meeting to discuss the recent exit of Marcela Huertas, the head of the FCS Technical Consultative Unit, and “the qualifications required for an optimal functioning of the FCS.” It adds, “the experience of recent months has shown that it is necessary to reinforce the functioning of these bodies and compliance with regulations.”

El Tiempo mentions an earlier document from the ambassadors, a confidential memorandum, that is more strongly worded. It refers to a “general concern about the integral management of the Sustainable Colombia Fund.” It calls for “establishing a clear route so that the execution of these resources no longer suffers from delays and occurs in a completely transparent manner.”

The Foreign Ministry pointed out that the ambassadors’ concerns “cannot be interpreted as accusations of corruption in the management of this aid fund’s resources. The comments make reference to procedures, operations, functioning, and compliance with fundamental regulations.” President Santos echoed this point. This is true: only the Fiscal’s letter appears to allege corruption.

The government announced that it would carry out an audit of the Sustainable Colombia Fund as foreseen in the grant agreements with the donor countries. The Comptroller’s Office (Contraloría) and Internal Affairs Office (Procuraduría) are also to increase their oversight of peace resources. “The only luxury that the country cannot allow itself is to let the peace process collapse due to poor administration of resources at the hour of its launch,” said Internal Affairs chief (Procurador) Fernando Carrillo, whose office is currently reviewing 1,800 contracts granted so far by the new transitional justice system, the Special Jurisdiction for Peace (JEP).

El Colombiano notes that the government announced plans to increase post-conflict spending this year by 31.5 percent over last year, to a total of COP$2.4 trillion (US$852 million). The paper cites an estimated 15-year accord implementation cost of COP$128.5 trillion (US$45.6 billion), 86 percent of it (COP$110 trillion) to implement the accord’s rural reform chapter. The rest would go to implementing:

  • The political participation chapter (COP$4.3 trillion / US$1.5 billion);
  • The “end of conflict” chapter, mainly ex-combatant reintegration (COP$1.9 trillion / US$680 million);
  • The illicit crops chapter (COP$8.3 trillion / US$2.9 billion); and
  • The victims chapter, which includes transitional justice (COP$4.3 trillion / US$1.5 billion).

Troubles With FARC Dissidents Continue at Ecuador Border

Two Ecuadorian journalists and their driver remained captive of a former FARC “dissident” armed group somewhere along the Colombia-Ecuador border. Reporter Javier Ortega and photographer Paul Rivas Bravo of Quito’s El Comercio newspaper, along with their driver Efraín Segarra, have been hostages of the so-called “Oliver Sinisterra Front” since March 26. Relatives received a brief proof-of-life video this week.

Many members of this “front” were FARC militia members in the troubled port of Tumaco, Nariño, whose municipality borders Ecuador. The ex-guerrilla group numbers from several dozen to up to 400 members who either failed to demobilize, abandoned the demobilization process, or are newly recruited. Nariño, and Ecuador’s coastal provinces of Esmeraldas and Manabí, comprise what are probably the busiest cocaine trafficking routes in South America. The Oliver Sinisterra group exists mainly to participate in the drug trade, and authorities allege that it is tightly linked to Mexican cartels.

It is headed by Walter Patricio Artízala Vernaza, alias “Guacho,” an Ecuadorian citizen who joined the FARC in 2007. Under his command, the group has carried out high-profile attacks this year: a roadside bomb that killed four Ecuadorian soldiers in Mataje, Esmeraldas; a car bomb against an Ecuadorian police station in San Lorenzo; and an attack on power lines that left Tumaco in the dark for days.

The most dramatic action so far, though, is the kidnapping of the El Comercio group, which is dominating the news in Ecuador. The dissidents captured the reporters while they were working on a story near the border, and have since held them almost totally incommunicado. The reporter’s brother asked that the Colombian and Ecuadorian governments not attempt a rescue mission that might endanger the hostages’ lives. “They shouldn’t take such drastic measures, we prefer a negotiation to risking their lives. We haven’t discussed that with my parents. This is the first case like this in the country, this is something new for us.”

Ecuador is deploying more troops to the border region. Since January, the Colombian armed forces’ Joint Task Force Hercules has included 10,000 soldiers, sailors, marines, and airmen deployed in Nariño. Defense Minister Luis Carlos Villegas told reporters, “We have offered all all support in intelligence, mobility, special forces, and military coordination” to the effort to free the hostages, though he added, “so far we don’t have documentation indicating that the journalists are in Colombian territory.”

Local ELN Leader Killed Upon Crossing from Venezuela

The Colombian military ambushed and killed José Trinidad Chinchilla, a top commander of the ELN’s Luis Enrique León Guerra front in northeast Colombia, as he was passing from Venezuela to Colombia via an unofficial border crossing. The April 1 operation, in a rural part of Tibú, in Norte de Santander’s troubled Catatumbo region, came after “a long intelligence effort, which included four unsuccessful operations,” El Colombiano reported.

Chinchilla, alias “Breimar,” joined the ELN 22 years ago and had long been active in Catatumbo. He was considered the mastermind of a 2012 kidnapping of two German citizens, who were held for five months but eventually released.

“It concerns us that the ELN is planning and carrying out attacks in Colombian territory from Venezuela, both along the Norte de Santander and Arauca borders,” Defense Minister Luis Carlos Villegas said in February. The minister alleged that, except for those involved in negotiations in Ecuador, all top ELN leaders are taking refuge in Venezuela, including Gustavo Giraldo alias “Pablito,” the head of the ELN’s Northeastern War Front in Arauca, the guerrilla group’s largest structure. “Pablito” is probably the member of the ELN’s five-person Central Command who is least supportive of negotiations.

Two FARC Members Killed in Less than 48 Hours

Two members of the Alternative Revolutionary Force of the Common People (FARC), the party descended from the demobilized guerrilla group, were killed on April 3 and 4. Nelson Andrés Zapata Urrego, a 32-year-old who was known as “Willinton” during his time in the FARC’s 4th Front, was shot by two masked men who intercepted him in the rural zone of Remedios municipality, Antioquia. In Piamonte, Cauca, an assailant shot 34-year-old Darwin Londoño Bohórquez, once known as “El Loco,” six times while he was eating alone in a restaurant.

According to the Prosecutor-General’s Office (Fiscalía), 52 demobilized FARC members were killed between January 2017 and March 2018. About 13,000 former FARC members are currently at large throughout the country (including those who have re-armed as dissidents).

Some of those killings, including a multiple murder in Nariño in February, were committed by the ELN. This week, four FARC leaders traveled to Quito, Ecuador, to discuss the issue with ELN leaders who are in the city to participate in peace talks with the government. In a video posted to his Twitter account, one of the FARC leaders, Pastor Alape, said, “We agreed to carry out clarification activities and, most important, they guaranteed to us that there is no ELN policy against the FARC.”

Meanwhile in Quito, the fifth round of talks between the government and ELN continues, with the topic shifting to the details of a possible new bilateral ceasefire. “If the agenda is to advance, it requires that the ceasefire be indefinite,” without an end date like a 100-day truce that lasted from October to January, chief government negotiator Gustavo Bell told El Tiempo.

Government Cites Progress in De-Mining

President Santos announced that of 673 municipalities with a presence of landmines, 225 are now mine-free. (Colombia has about 1,100 municipalities, or counties.) “We have advanced to 33 percent of the total,” Santos said. That is the total of municipalities: in fact, de-miners have cleared about 6.08 million square meters (2.35 square miles) of a total of 52 million square meters (20 square miles) believed to be contaminated with mines, laid mostly by guerrilla and paramilitary groups.

Sergio Bueno, the director of Colombia’s Department for Integrated Action Against Anti-Personnel Mines (DAICMA), celebrated “a very important reduction” in the number of landmine victims. In 2012, landmines killed or wounded 589 Colombians. That fell to 56 in 2017 and 14 so far in 2018.

The country has increased its de-mining personnel strength from 1,300 to 5,478 trained people. Support for this effort comes from the “Global Demining Initiative for Colombia,” a 23-donor, US$144.5 million fund (including US$42 million pledged so far from the United States).

In-Depth Reading

Some articles I found interesting this morning

(Even more here)

April 24, 2018

Central America Regional, Mexico

For those seeking asylum, all individuals may be detained while their claims are adjudicated efficiently and expeditiously, and those found not to have a claim will be promptly removed

Colombia

El general Alberto José Mejía, comandante de las Fuerzas Militares, asegura que la Jurisdicción Especial para la Paz será una oportunidad para resolver los procesos penales en contra de los miembros de la fuerza pública

Henry Acosta, quien facilitó los diálogos de paz, afirma que en la Farc hay dos bloques: Márquez- Santrich-Joaquín Gómez, y Timochenko- Alape- Lozada y Catatumbo

Honduras

Mirian, a 29-year-old mother from Honduras, is currently detained in T. Don Hutto detention center in Taylor, Texas, while her toddler is kept in a facility in San Antonio, some 120 miles away

Mexico

At the Kino Border Initiative, we have stood with his family in their grief and their persistent fight for justice. As such, we accompany them in their sorrow today given the jury’s decision to declare Lonnie Swartz not guilty of second-degree murder

The decision by U.S. District Judge Raner Collins means prosecutors could seek another trial for Agent Lonnie Swartz on the manslaughter charges in the 2012 death of Jose Antonio Elena Rodriguez

Ello, como parte del litigio contra el Estado mexicano por la desaparición forzada –el 29 de diciembre de 2009– de Nitza Paola Alvarado Espinoza, Rocío Irene Alvarado Reyes y José Ángel Alvarado Herrera en el municipio de Buenaventura, Chihuahua

About 600 men, women and children from Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras had been waiting on Monday in Hermosillo, Sonora to board a train or take buses for the remaining 432 miles

El Fiscal Especial para la Atención de Delitos cometidos contra la Libertad de Expresión? (FEADLE), Ricardo Sánchez Pérez del Pozo, confirmó la detención de Heriberto “N”, alias el Koala

Nicaragua

The student leaders stress that their cause is much bigger than the infamous social security reform that sparked the massive street protests last week

Paraguay

Many older Paraguayans remember Stroessner fondly, and the 60 percent of the population born since 1989 barely remembers him at all

Western Hemisphere Regional

According to conventional law enforcement accounting, this single incident should have been tallied as seven agents assaulted — not seven agents times six perpetrators times three projectiles

As the records POGO obtained show, drug-related charges are some of the most common reasons CBP employees are arrested

  • Nick Fortugno, Sisi Wei, The Waiting Game (Playmatics, WNYC, ProPublica, April 24, 2018).

The U.S. is supposed to be a safe haven for people fleeing persecution. But asylum-seekers face years of uncertainty when they arrive

The day ahead: April 24, 2018

I’ll only be reachable in the late afternoon. (How to contact me)

I’m spending the morning at a Colombia conference that George Mason University is putting on. In the afternoon I have calls with congressional staff and some local university researchers. During the latter part of the afternoon I’ll be in the office writing.

Some articles I found interesting this morning

(Even more here)

April 23, 2018

Central America Regional

New data reviewed by The New York Times shows that more than 700 children have been taken from adults claiming to be their parents since October, including more than 100 children under the age of 4

Colombia

Una de las noticias que más se repite en la cronología periodística de los últimos 60 años en Colombia, es que en los servicios de inteligencia del Estado hay escándalos y que para superarlos se ordenan medidas de reforma o disolución de unidades

La convicción de la Farc como partido político se reforzará si demuestran que superarán las dificultades en el camino, entre tanto, el Gobierno deberá respetar y dar garantías frente al Acuerdo

La gente que lo conoció bien en la Habana tenía la firme impresión de que ‘Santrich’ era un convencido político en la causa guerrillera y por eso es difícil creer que estuviera haciendo esa transacción para enriquecerse él mismo

Por lo menos 33 personas fueron detenidas durante el viernes pasado por las autoridades en una acción coordinada en varios municipios. Se les sindica de hacer parte de la guerrilla del Eln

Colombia, Ecuador

Muchos colombianos se preguntan, ¿cómo es posible que un disidente de menor rango de esa guerrilla y con unos 200 hombres se haya convertido en la prioridad número uno de las Fuerzas Armadas de Colombia y Ecuador?

Mexico

Cadhac, dirigida por la hermana Consuelo Morales, es la primera organización del norte del país que arropó a las víctimas de la “guerra del narco”. También logró estructurar un sistema de búsqueda en colaboración con las Procuradurías, que se ha convertido en un modelo

El fenómeno es nacional, pero los focos más rojos siguen estando en el centro-occidente del país y en la península de Baja California

Nicaragua

Cuadra insistió en la responsabilidad de una posible intervención militar. “Se ha rumorado de que se vaya a usar el Ejército para reprimir. Esa es una posibilidad muy remota. No la veo absolutamente. Sería un error histórico”

His announcement seemed to acknowledge that the protests, which started on Wednesday as a picket by college students against the social security overhaul, had become a serious challenge to his authority

My friends in Nicaragua think this one’s for real

Las banderas de esta rebelión popular también están demandando libertad, democracia, y participación política para terminar con la dictadura

Paraguay

Mr. Abdo Benítez’s presidential bid evoked memories of Paraguay’s dictatorship from 1954 to 1989 because his father was the personal secretary of Alfredo Stroessner

South America Regional

Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Paraguay and Peru had decided to temporarily leave the Union of South American Nations, or UNASUR, given differences over choosing the secretary general of the group

The day ahead: April 23, 2018

I’ll be most reachable in the afternoon. (How to contact me)

Spent the weekend knocking out a “final final” draft of an evaluation of a USAID project in Colombia, responding to reviewers’ comments. The morning will be spent in internal meetings—the weekly staff meeting and a follow-on discussion of our communications strategy. In the afternoon, I’ll be in the office catching up on three weeks of overdue Colombia peace process updates.

The Week Ahead

Again, I’m in Washington all week, this time with a lighter meeting schedule. Which means it’s time to catch up for real on writing. First order of business is backlogged Colombia peace process updates for the month of April. Second is to pay more attention to this site.

I also expect to prepare a Colombia talk that I’ll be giving before a State Department audience late next week, and to start writing a paper about Colombia’s peace process that I’ll present at the Latin American Studies Association’s annual meeting at the end of May.

Later in the week we’ll be helping USIP host a group of victims’ advocates from the Medellín city government, who are brought here by George Mason University.

Latin America-related events in Washington this week

Monday, April 23

Tuesday, April 24

Wednesday, April 25

Thursday, April 26

The day ahead: April 20, 2018

I’ll be most reachable in the morning. (How to contact me)

I’m talking to a border-area journalist in the late morning, then headed to a meeting with a Colombia-based international organization official in the early afternoon. Taking my excellent intern out to coffee in the mid-afternoon (it’s her last day, and she did a great job with our weekly border updates), then talking to some reporters about Mexico’s southern border at the end of the day.

The day ahead: April 19, 2018

I should be reachable much of the day, but trying to get some work done. (How to contact me)

Today’s a quieter day: for the first time all week, I’ll have more than a couple of minutes at a computer keyboard, without racing to meet a deadline. (Incidentally, today is only quiet because I’ve aggressively steered meetings away from this day on my calendar, having blocked it off early last week. I recommend this practice if you find that meetings and commitments keep you from getting “real” work done.)

I expect to close the door and catch up on research, reading, databasing, and some writing all day. I’m be available to talk, but would prefer not to get too diverted from program work.

The day ahead: April 18, 2018

I’ll be hard to contact today. (How to contact me)

This morning I’m finishing a brief article about Colombia for another publication, probably working at home. I’ll have a late-morning phone conversation with a journalist about Colombia, then I’m going to USCIS to brief a group of refugee officers, again about Colombia. Later in the afternoon I’m joining WOLA colleagues in a meeting about Mexico at the State Department. I’ll be hard to contact all day—and once again, probably not posting here.

The day ahead: April 17, 2018

I’ll be hard to reach today. (How to contact me)

This morning I’m working on a WOLA planning document, then headed to the US Institute of Peace for a discussion of how Colombia’s peace process is going. I then need to prepare a presentation I’ll be making tomorrow for USCIS refugee officers who work on Colombia. I have two internal meetings this afternoon and a sit-down with some researchers from a local university who are looking at organized crime. And I want to make progress on (and finish tomorrow morning) a brief piece on Colombia’s peace process for another publication. In the evening I hope to catch up on the news in the region, I’m a bit behind.

The Day Ahead: April 16, 2018

I’ll be difficult to contact today. (How to contact me)

I’ve got a weekly staff meeting in the morning. Then, in the afternoon, two calls scheduled with journalists, a call with State Department officials about an upcoming Colombia talk, and a call with USAID about Colombia. That will consume most of the day.

The week ahead

I’m in Washington all five days this week, for a change. (Last week I spent Wednesday and Thursday in Orlando, at a very good workshop on military assistance hosted by the University of Central Florida. Then I spent the entire weekend in New York visiting family.)

As of now, I’ve got about 16 hours of meetings and calls on the calendar, which leaves at least some time for research, writing, and communicating.

Most of that will be about Colombia this week. I’ll have a short piece coming out about the current state of the peace process. And more updates posted here. And later in the week—hopefully, unless I run out of time—an update on the state of border-security spending and construction.

Over the weekend I’ll be completing final responses to comments on the USAID project evaluation for which I spent February in Colombia.

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