Adam Isacson

Defense, security, borders, migration, and human rights in Latin America and the United States. May not reflect my employer’s consensus view.

July 2018

Some articles I found interesting from July 6

(Even more here)

July 6, 2018

Colombia

Rambo’s presumed return to the criminal world illustrates the risk the Colombian government takes when its implementation of the peace agreement with the FARC is perceived as inconsistent

La antigua cúpula de la Farc debe acudir ante la Sala de Reconocimiento de Verdad para responder por secuestros y secuestrados hoy desaparecidos

The protests were organized hastily over social media following an especially bloody week in which at least four activists were slain

Mientras el actual Gobierno demuestra incapacidad de reacción, en el país están tomando fuerza discursos censurables, pidiendo desde las redes sociales que no lamentemos la muerte de los líderes sociales asesinados porque los asocian con la guerrilla

El subcomandante también informó que abrieron una investigación disciplinaria sobre presuntas amenazas del comandante de la estación policial de Cáceres a la victima

Colombia, Venezuela

“Yo nunca he hablado de intervenciones militares ni de propiciar intervenciones militares. Lo que hay que hacer es ejercer presión diplomática contra la dictadura”, dijo el mandatario

Mexico

López Obrador’s foreign minister will be former Mexico City mayor Marcelo Ebrard

Nicaragua

Les fue aplicada la Ley Magnitsky, una decisión que fue respaldada públicamente por el vicepresidente Mike Pence

Western Hemisphere Regional

June’s numbers suggest that families attempting to enter the country illegally through Arizona were undeterred by the possibility of getting separated

After learning that neighbors had recorded video of children entering the building, an MVM spokesperson said the building “is not a shelter or a child care facility. … It’s a temporary holding place”

The judge ordered the government to deliver a list of the children’s names to the American Civil Liberties Union, which brought the lawsuit, by Saturday and said he would decide Monday whether to grant an extension

Some articles I found interesting from July 5

(Even more here)

July 5, 2018

Colombia

El asesinato de los líderes sociales Felicinda Santamaría en el departamento del Chocó y Luis Barrios en el Atlántico, en las últimas 48 horas, sumió

Al menos 178 líderes sociales han sido asesinados en Colombia desde que se firmó en 2016 el acuerdo de paz entre el Gobierno y las Farc. Aunque la Defensoría del Pueblo cuenta un total de 311

Petro afirmó que ella fue amedrentada mientas se encargaba de coordinar su campaña antes de las elecciones hacia la Casa de Nariño

EL HERALDO reconstruyó el recorrido que hizo el líder social antes de su muerte en Palmar de Varela

La preocupación por el aumento de los cultivos ilícitos la heredó el gobierno entrante y con ella la amenaza de descertificación

Para el Ejército, el ELN estaría detrás del múltiple asesinato. Según la Policía, dos de las víctimas eran disidentes de las Farc

Mexico

El colectivo señaló que “esa ley no contribuye a la paz y su simple existencia amenaza e inhibe el ejercicio de los derechos humanos”

Durazo, quien está encargado por Andrés Manuel López Obrador para diseñar las estrategias en la materia, expresa: sería irresponsable (que los integrantes del Ejército y de Marina ya no realicen tareas de seguridad pública) en este momento.

From coast to coast, a wave of MORENA votes washed across the country, cementing the party as the country’s soon-to-be main political force—a remarkable shift

Mexico, Venezuela

Replying to a question about the approach his government would take to the crisis in socialist-led Venezuela, Lopez Obrador said: “We’re going to apply the foreign policy of non-intervention of self-determination of nations”

Western Hemisphere Regional

The Department is no longer disclosing how many children it is holding, but immigration lawyers at the border say that many parents still don’t know where their children are

Currently the government is racing against the clock (and possibly cutting corners) to solve a problem it created by separating families without clear documentation of when they were split up

Administration officials previously had said about 2,300 children had been separated from their parents. But over the weekend, the agency came up with its final accounting that showed nearly 3,000 in total

Of 381 families we interviewed, 278 are still separated. At least two children have been deported without their parents. And at least five parents have been deported without their children

Its origins are unclear, but it was created after U.S. border officials began to limit the number of asylum seekers allowed to enter the San Ysidro Port of Entry

Southwest Border Data Shows ‘Zero Tolerance’ Didn’t Deter Migrants After All

Yesterday, U.S. Customs and Border Protection released its June data about migrants apprehended at the border with Mexico. The reduction was laughably small for a month when Jeff Sessions’s cruel “zero tolerance” policy was in full swing.

This post at WOLA’s website builds on Monday’s post here, which was based on a leak of preliminary data. It concludes:

For all of the pain and outrage it has caused, during a month when it was at its most intense and generating worldwide headlines, the “zero tolerance” policy had only a very small deterrent effect on would-be migrants.

Read it here.

The day ahead: July 6, 2018

I’ll be most reachable in the afternoon. (How to contact me)

I’m doing two interviews about Colombia this morning. Otherwise, I plan to keep writing both our report on the situation at the border (now over 9,000 words, yikes) and a regular Colombia update. If I’m on a roll with the writing, I may not be checking e-mail or other communications frequently.

The day ahead: July 5, 2018

I’m in meetings most of the afternoon. (How to contact me)

I’m back in Washington after a short break. By the weekend I expect to be done with the first draft of a lengthy report about the situation at the border, based on what we saw in Arizona two weeks ago. When not writing that, I’ll be in three meetings this afternoon, two internal and one with a visiting reporter.

Some articles I found interesting this morning

(Even more here)

July 4, 2018

El domingo asesinaron a dos policías en Las Esquinas, Carazo. Después de tres semanas ellos son la única “ley” en la zona

El general en retiro y exjefe del Ejército de Nicaragua, Humberto Ortega, hermano del presidente designado Daniel Ortega, redactó una carta en la que propone adelantar elecciones presidenciales para el 2019 como la salida pacífica a la crisis

Venezuela

Eventually, McMaster would pull aside the president and walk him through the dangers of an invasion, the official said

Western Hemisphere Regional

The policy is seen as unwanted and unfair in this border city of 142,000 whose population is 90 percent Hispanic and so fully bilingual that roadside anti-littering signs say “No dumping basura”

ICE confirmed to The Intercept on Tuesday that more than 60 women were moved during the secretary’s visit, though the agency claimed the move was for the purpose of “recreation”

A review of regulatory filings, campaign donations and lobbying records reveals a number of important links between people in Mr. Trump’s orbit and the groups poised to earn financial rewards from his immigration policies

Chile

A judge handed down the sentences after leading a long-running inquiry into Jara’s death on 16 September, 45 years ago

Colombia

El alcance de esta política va hasta el 2026 y desde este mes se encuentra en marcha

La estrategia de defensa del próximo gobierno deberá concentrarse en la lucha contra cuatro organizaciones, diferentes entre sí, que todavía le hacen la guerra al Estado

Pobladores de Argelia recordaron que hace apenas una semana un grupo que se autodenominó Comando Popular de Limpieza (CPL), hizo público un panfleto amenazante

Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah, led a small chorus of conservatives who raised doubts about Joseph Macmanus’ nomination

Mexico

Dijo que no usaría la ley de Seguridad Interior que legalizó las actuaciones del Ejército y de la Marina en la última década y evitó cualquier contacto con el Estado Mayor Presidencial (EMP)

El padre y defensor de los migrantes, aclaró que no cree en el poder ni en el dinero, por lo que de ser Ombudsman destinará su sueldo a proyectos productivos

Cruz said Mexican President-elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador, 64, had been running on an “anti-American campaign for a long, long time.”

Nicaragua

The day ahead: July 3, 2018

I’m off today, visiting family. (How to contact me)

Tomorrow is a national holiday in the United States, and yesterday my father-in-law had a big milestone birthday. So I’m outside Washington spending a few days with family. Regular posting should resume Thursday. Happy Independence Day to U.S. readers.

“Zero Tolerance” Didn’t Deter Many Migrants

Much of the country, and the world, have been shocked by the cruelty of the Trump administration’s zero-tolerance, arrest-everyone-and-separate-parents-and-children policy. In the face of criticism, administration officials have contended that the policy promised to “deter” potential future migrants from attempting the journey.

That assertion would meet its big test in the number of migrants whom Border Patrol apprehended in the month of June. With the “zero tolerance” policy going firmly into effect around May 5, and media reports of family separations accumulating by the end of the month, would fewer people try to cross the U.S.-Mexico border in June?

Actually, the number of migrant apprehensions nearly always goes down from May to June, for seasonal reasons: it is scorchingly, dangerously hot in the arid deserts along the southwest border. So in order to judge “deterrence” resulting from zero tolerance, we need to know whether the reduction was more than the seasonal average.

Yesterday, July 1, Associated Press reporter Elliot Spagat got a leak of a preliminary June apprehension figure. The drop from May to June 2018 was 15.6 percent, from 40,344 apprehensions to 34,057.

Border Patrol furnishes monthly apprehensions data since 2000, allowing us to judge whether 15.6 percent is abnormally high. It isn’t.

Between 2000 and 2017, the average monthly drop from Mays to Junes at the U.S.-Mexico border was 21.3 percent: 5.7 percentage points steeper than 2018’s drop of 15.6 percent. The May to June 2018 drop in migration was smaller than the average of the previous 18 years, showing no deterrent effect at all.

Between 2011 and 2017, a period of sharply reduced migration, the average May-June drop was much lower: 11.3 percent. The May to June 2018 drop in migration, then, was 4.3 percentage points larger than the average of the previous 7 years, showing only a very modest potential deterrent effect.

Had 2018 matched the 2011-2017 average, Border Patrol would have apprehended 35,785 migrants at the border. Instead, it apprehended 34,057. The difference is 1,758. So perhaps that is about how many migrants were “deterred.” Not much.

For all of the pain and outrage it has caused, during a month when it was at its most intense and generating worldwide headlines, the “zero tolerance” policy had only an extremely modest deterrent effect on would-be migrants.

Instead of this cruel wrong turn, it’s beyond time to focus on the violence, corruption, and misrule pushing tens of thousands of Central Americans out of their home countries.

Year May-June Change May June
2000 -30.8% 166,296 115,093
2001 -27.5% 122,927 89,131
2002 -19.3% 97,424 78,655
2003 -14.8% 88,690 75,530
2004 -20.3% 118,726 94,590
2005 -21.6% 115,823 90,786
2006 -35.2% 105,450 68,366
2007 -19.4% 88,504 71,338
2008 -22.2% 69,233 53,854
2009 -9.5% 50,884 46,044
2010 -30.0% 47,045 32,955
2011 -13.0% 31,236 27,166
2012 -17.0% 36,966 30,669
2013 -21.5% 43,856 34,436
2014 -4.6% 60,683 57,862
2015 -7.2% 31,576 29,303
2016 -14.6% 40,337 34,450
2017 10.8% 14,519 16,087
2018 (unofficial) -15.6% 40,344 34,057
Average May→June decrease 2000-2017 -21.3%
Average May→June decrease 2011-2017 -11.3%
Source: http://bit.ly/2F1UHsc
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