Adam Isacson

Defense, security, borders, migration, and human rights in Latin America and the United States. May not reflect my employer’s consensus view.

Archives

October 2018

October 11, 2018 — 0

Some articles I found interesting this morning

(Even more here)

October 11, 2018

supuesta “campaña de falsedades” que “adelanta Colombia” y Estados Unidos

Western Hemisphere Regional

The migrant men have told authorities there was no attack on the agent who killed Claudia Patricia Gómez González, according to the Guatemalan Consul

The committee released statistics showing that 2,654 children had been separated from their parents under the zero-tolerance policy. The panel said 2,337 had been reunited with parents

Brazil

Soldiers are not itching for power. More likely, they would restrain Jair Bolsonaro

Levantamento inédito contabilizou relatos de agressões e ameaças contra pessoas em 18 estados e no DF nos últimos dez dias; 6 apoiadores do candidato do PSL também foram agredidos

Bolsonaro’s recent surge has also seen him gaining support across social and cultural lines, including from some unlikely-seeming celebrities

Brazil, Venezuela

Between them, Eduardo and Jair Bolsonaro have sent more than 50 Venezuela-themed tweets this year, most flagging up the supposed socialist threat to Brazil

Colombia

Luego de conocerse la petición de la ONU de retirar a los militares de los barrios de Medellín, EL COLOMBIANO consultó en la Comuna 13 sobre el tema. Allí prefieren la presencia militar

Members also voiced concern over the departure of several former FARC members from training and reintegration zones, emphasizing the urgent need to ensure the resumption of economic activities in affected areas on a larger scale

El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras

Our policy with regard to CICIG in Guatemala has not changed. The United States supports CICIG reforms, as has been noted previously, and we maintain that position

Mexico

It is unclear whether MPs will be patrolling the beaches, as they do at some other Mexican resorts

Precisó que el primer día de su mandato, 1 de diciembre, lanzará una convocatoria pública a los jóvenes para sumarse a esas instancias y desde allí contribuir “a serenar al país”

Mexico, Western Hemisphere Regional

Durante tres días, los integrantes de la CMDA abordaron temas como ayuda humanitaria, perspectiva de género, protección ambiental y resiliencia climática, evolución en el papel de las fuerzas armadas y búsqueda y rescate

Nicaragua

La escritora Gioconda Belli manifestó que la censura mediática del régimen de Daniel Ortega es mayor que en la dictadura somocista, porque en el pasado los periodistas tenían acceso a los juicios políticos y no existía un monólogo

Venezuela

The Councilor said he was being “threatened” and told that the only way he could get out of prison was to name Julio Borges, the exiled leader of Primero Justicia, as the organizer of the drone attack

In Washington, White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders issued a statement condemning “the Maduro regime’s involvement” in Alban’s death

Indicó que este será un cuerpo policial “muy especializado” que se ocupará de “atender la realidad en la frontera” y hacer frente a una

October 11, 2018 — 0

The day ahead: October 11, 2018

I’ll be reachable in the mid- and late afternoon. (How to contact me)

I have a full complement of meetings, calls, and interviews until mid-afternoon, after which I’ll mainly be helping prepare for the arrival of the large group of Colombian colleagues who’ll be here next week to participate in a conference and lots of side meetings.

October 10, 2018 — 0

The new Brazil

From Glenn Greenwald at The Intercept:

Last week, one candidate from Bolsonaro’s party, Rodrigo Amorim, shocked and disgusted even some far-right supporters. Wearing a t-shirt with a pistol pointed forward, he took, destroyed, and then on social media proudly displayed an unofficial street sign made to commemorate the life of Marielle Franco, the black, LGBT human rights activist from the favelas who, as a leftist City Councilwoman, was assassinated in March, with her police-linked killers still apprehended. …The last line of his social media post – now deleted – read: “Get ready left-wingers: your days are numbered if we’re in charge.”

Last night, Amorim not only was elected to the State House in Rio, but was the most-voted candidate in the state. The other Bolsonaro-aligned candidate promoted there, Daniel Silveira, an officer with Brazil’s military police, was elected to the Federal Congress.

October 10, 2018 — 0

The day ahead: October 10, 2018

I’m hard to reach today. (How to contact me)

Ever have most of your meeting requests and commitments gravitate toward one day on your calendar? That’s today for me. I’m in meetings and conference calls continuously, with perhaps a half-hour break, between 9:00 and 7:00 today. I’ll be hard to contact and barely checking e-mail. Tomorrow will be better.

October 9, 2018 — 0

Some articles I found interesting this morning

Fabio Cuttica photo at UNHCR. Caption: “Over 4,000 Venezuelans enter Colombia every day. Thousands do it on foot, crossing Simón Bolívar International Bridge.”

(Even more here)

October 9, 2018

Brazil

  • Brian Winter, “What to Expect From Jair Bolsonaro” (Americas Quarterly, October 9, 2018).

    Bolsonaro will have extraordinary power to act as he chooses, at least at first. After the crisis of recent years, many Brazilians see democracy as a synonym for chaos, corruption and leniency with criminals

  • Jeffrey W Rubin, “In Brazil and the Us, Democracy Is at a Crossroads” (The Guardian (Uk), October 9, 2018).

    As I spoke with Brazilians, I found myself repeatedly ticking off the many similarities between the two countries’ trajectories. And wondering, are there common forces that produced such similar results

Colombia

  • Joe Parkin Daniels, “Hector Abad: ‘Do Not Sink Into Rancour’” (The Guardian (Uk), October 9, 2018).

    Abad’s new novel, The Farm, follows a family as it struggles to live among guerrillas, paramilitaries, army soldiers and drug lords

Colombia, Venezuela

  • Maria Isabel Rueda, “‘Colombia Debe Renovar su Capacidad Ofensiva’: Francisco Santos” (El Tiempo (Colombia), October 9, 2018).

    “Es que la industria de la droga cambió. Hoy hay cultivos de 40, 50, 70 hectáreas. Que no son propiamente de un pequeño campesino, sino cultivos narcoindustriales que la única manera de poder erradicar eficientemente es mediante la fumigación”

  • Marta Martinez, “Unhcr to Intensify Aid to Venezuelans in Colombia” (UN High Commissioner for Refugees, October 9, 2018).

    Nearly 400,000 Venezuelans have obtained permits to legally work and access social services in the country, according to the Colombian government

Mexico

  • Alan Feuer, “Who Will Testify Against el Chapo at Trial?” (The New York Times, October 9, 2018).

    Two big drug dealers. A corrupt official. The government has sought to protect the identities of witnesses against the drug lord, but some possibilities are known

Peru

  • “Elecciones en Puno: Walter Aduviri al Poder” (La Republica (Peru), October 9, 2018).

    Para el exlíder aimara, su despedazamiento fue la sentencia de siete años de cárcel que le dieron por los disturbios del 2011 y que el pasado 05 de octubre fue anulada por la Corte Suprema

Western Hemisphere Regional

October 9, 2018 — 0

The day ahead: October 9, 2018

I’ll be available in the afternoon. (How to contact me)

I’ve got weekly and planning meetings in the office until around lunchtime. In the afternoon I’ll be reachable as I help prepare for the conference we’re holding in a week and finish my nearly done draft of a giant report on Colombia.

October 8, 2018 — 0

The day ahead: October 8, 2018

With the office closed, I’m intermittently available today. (How to contact me)

It’s Columbus Day / Indigenous People’s Day, and WOLA’s office building is closed. So is my kid’s school. So I’ll be at home alternating between “family time” and writing a big report about Colombia.

October 7, 2018 — 0

Weekly Update #7 is out

Here’s the latest. It’s got links to three analyses of Colombia I published last week. A conference announcement. Event announcements, music, and links to some great writing by others.

To get these in your e-mail, just add your name and e-mail here, and look for the confirmation e-mail in your inbox. I promise never to share your e-mail address with anyone.

[revue_subscribe]

October 7, 2018 — 0

Big Colombia conference is 9 days away: Tuesday the 16th

I’m really looking forward to having this group here. RSVP here, at WOLA’s website.

Staying on Course: Security, Coca, Justice, and Accord Implementation in Colombia

Tuesday, October 16, 2018, 8:30 a.m.-4:00 p.m.
 Root Room, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace,
 1779 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington DC

Two years after Colombia signed a historic peace accord with the FARC, Latin America’s largest guerrilla group, much is uncertain. Amid uneven implementation of the accord, armed and criminal groups—some made up of demobilized guerrillas—are filling territorial vacuums and encroaching on ethnic-minority communities. Murders of independent social leaders have reached epidemic proportions. A new president who had led opposition to the accord seeks to make adjustments. Complex transitional-justice cases are just getting started. Coca cultivation has reached new records. Negotiations with the ELN guerrilla group are stalled. Meanwhile, most messages from the U.S. government are about coca and the crisis in neighboring Venezuela—not consolidation of peace.

WOLA is pleased to bring to Washington a remarkable group of leaders, practitioners, and experts from Colombia. They will dive deeply into these and other current challenges in an all-day event, open to the public.

Light lunch, coffee, and simultaneous translation will be provided. Video will be available at WOLA’s website (wola.org) after the event.

Tentative Agenda 

8:30 a.m. – 9:00 a.m. 
Registration and Coffee

9:00 a.m. – 9:15 a.m.
Introductory Remarks

9:15 a.m. – 11:00 a.m. 
Panel: Colombia’s Transitional Justice System

  • Julieta Lemaitre Ripoll, president, Chamber for Recognition of Truth, Responsibility, and Determination of Acts and Conducts, Special Jurisdiction for Peace, Bogotá, Colombia
  • Patricia Tobón, commissioner, Commission for the Clarification of Truth, Coexistence and Non-Repetition, Bogotá, Colombia
  • María Camila Moreno, director, International Center for Transitional Justice, Bogotá, Colombia
  • Moderator: Gimena Sanchez-Garzoli, director, Colombia Program, Washington Office on Latin America

11:00 a.m. – 11:15 a.m. 
Break

11:15 a.m. – 1:00 p.m. 
Panel: Coca, Eradication, Substitution

  • Pedro Arenas, coordinator, Observatory of Crops and Cultivators Declared Illicit, Bogotá, Colombia
  • Ariel Ávila, deputy director, Peace and Reconciliation Foundation, Bogotá, Colombia
  • Invited Speaker from coca growers’ organization, via Skype, Colombia
  • Moderator: Adam Isacson, director, Defense Oversight Program, Washington Office on Latin America

1:00 p.m. – 2:00 p.m. 
Lunch

2:00 p.m. – 3:45 p.m. 
Panel: Security Dynamics, Peace Accord Implementation, and the ELN

  • Claudia López, former Senator and vice-presidential candidate now spokesperson, Anti-Corruption Consultation; program manager, Peace and Reconciliation Foundation, Bogotá, Colombia
  • Danilo Rueda, human rights defender, Inter-Ecclesiastical Committee for Justice and Peace, Bogotá, Colombia
  • Kyle Johnson, senior analyst for Colombia, International Crisis Group, Bogotá, Colombia
  • Moderator: Mariano Aguirre Ernst, peacebuilding senior advisor, Office of the Resident Coordinator, United Nations, Bogotá, Colombia

3:45 p.m. – 4:00 p.m.
Closing Remarks

October 7, 2018 — 0

Latin America-related events in Washington this week

Wednesday, October 10

  • 9:00–11:00 at the Inter-American Dialogue: Mexico’s Security Crisis: What Lies Ahead for AMLO? (RSVP required).
  • 6:00–8:00 at the Wilson Center: AMLO and the Outlook for North American Free Trade (RSVP required).

Friday, October 12

  • 10:00–12:00 at the Wilson Center: Will Brazil Go Right or Left? (RSVP required).
  • 10:30–12:00 at CSIS: Venezuela as a Narco State (RSVP required).
  • 11:30–1:00 at the Wilson Center: Looking Out: New Survey Reveals Views in Argentina of Trade, Great Power Relations (RSVP required).
October 7, 2018 — 0

Five links from the past week

Western Hemisphere Regional

Originally opened in June for 30 days with a capacity of 400, it expanded in September to be able to house 3,800, and is now expected to remain open at least through the end of the year

Colombia

En las zonas analizadas, los frágiles equilibrios y acuerdos entre las facciones ilegales se han roto y se han renovado procesos de disputa

Cuba

“This episode has gotten way out of hand with wild speculation and competing theories from specialists”

El Salvador

By pushing policies like these, the U.S. is fueling violence on one hand, while trying to solve it with the other through tertiary prevention

Mexico

What was clear after the violence of that night was that Mexico’s government was willing to go to extreme lengths to maintain control

October 7, 2018 — 0

The past week in Colombia’s peace process

(Week of September 23-29)

Presidents Duque and Trump Meet in New York

Seven weeks into his presidency, Colombian President Iván Duque had his first meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump, outside the UN General Assembly meetings in New York. “It was a great meeting,” Duque later told the Washington Post’s Lally Weymouth. “We are going to strengthen our relationship with the U.S.—not only the military cooperation, but also trade and development assistance. We also talked about Venezuela and got the president’s strong support for the refugee situation we’re facing due to the [Venezuelan President Nicolás] Maduro regime.”

The leaders had an 18-minute exchange with reporters. Trump stressed the U.S. desire that Duque address Colombia’s recent increase in coca and cocaine production.

What I want — what I want and what we’ve discussed, and one of the reasons I was so happy to see the President’s victory — that was a great victory and there was a very worldwide, world-renowned victory because of his strong stance on drugs.

Now, if he comes through, we think he’s the greatest. If he doesn’t come through, he’s just another President of Colombia. (Laughter.) But I think he’s going to come through. I really do.

Semana reported that Duque has set a goal of reducing the number of hectares of coca grown in Colombia by 70 percent during his four years in office. This is a very ambitious goal. Even eradicating 70 percent of the coca that the UN Office on Drugs and Crime detected in Colombia in 2017 would mean 120,000 eradicated hectares per year (much of which would quickly be replanted); Colombia eradicated 18,000 in 2016 and about 60,000 in 2017. Getting to 120,000 would probably only be possible through a vast expansion in forced eradication through aerial herbicide spraying, and an intense series of confrontations with organized coca cultivators. Duque says he favors herbicide fumigation but has not yet announced a plan.

Asked about Colombia’s peace process, Trump appeared startled and unprepared.

Q Are you going to talk about FARC and ELN, the peace process?

PRESIDENT TRUMP: Are you asking me that question? We’re going to be talking about everything.

Much of the presidents’ conversation surrounded the crisis in neighboring Venezuela. President Trump resisted commenting on a “military option” for dealing with Venezuela, though he did state that the Venezuelan military could easily overthrow President Nicolás Maduro if they so chose.

“It was known” that in their bilateral meeting, Trump “had discarded the idea of a military solution” for Venezuela, El Colombiano reported. The U.S. president supported his Colombian colleague’s plan for a concerted campaign of diplomatic pressure and sanctions to remove Maduro, including a six-country petition to the International Criminal Court alleging the Venezuelan government’s commission of crimes against humanity.

Duque criticized Venezuela in his Washington Post interview, calling the Caracas government “a narco-trafficking state. It is a human rights violator. They have been sponsoring and helping and providing safe haven to Colombian terrorists in their territory.” He concluded, though, that “I don’t think that a military solution is the solution, because that’s what Maduro wants. Maduro wants to create a demon so that he can exacerbate patriotism and remain in office.”

The Venezuelan armed forces meanwhile announced a deployment of troops to the Colombia-Venezuela border, in the state of Táchira across from Norte de Santander department. The commander of the Venezuelan military’s Strategic Operational Command said that the deployment’s purpose was to combat narcotrafficking and illegal groups’ cross-border activity. During the UN sessions, U.S. Vice-President Mike Pence seized on this news to offer Colombia an explicit security guarantee.

News reports today are that the Maduro regime has moved military troops to the border of Colombia, as they have done in the past. An obvious effort at intimidation. Let me be clear: the United States of America will always stand with our allies for their security. The Maduro regime would do well not to test the resolve of the president of the United States or the American people in this regard.

Back in Bogotá, the leader of President Duque’s party, former president Álvaro Uribe, called on Venezuela’s military “not to aim at the sister country of Colombia, but to aim at the Miraflores [Presidential] Palace to kick out the dictatorship.”

Some FARC Leaders Reappear, Voice Discontent and Security Concerns

Some questions were answered in the crisis of at least nine top former FARC leaders who have gone missing in recent months. Some have “clandestinized” themselves citing security concerns, some have voiced fear of trumped-up judicial charges against them, and some, it is feared, may be inclining toward re-armed dissident groups.

In addition to Henry Castellanos alias “Romana”—an eastern-bloc chieftain responsible for numerous kidnappings who penned a letter ratifying his continued participation in the peace process—top Southern Bloc leader Fabián Ramírez also surfaced. Ramírez sent a letter to the Interior Ministry’s National Protection Unit (UNP) complaining about the inadequacy of the vehicle-and-bodyguard scheme that the Unit had assigned to him.

“I request for the third time that you resolve for me, quickly, the reinstatement of two missing bodyguards and a conventional car, which are part of my security scheme that the UNP, through its approved risk study, had given me for my protection since the beginning of this year,” Ramirez wrote. He added that he has never abandoned the peace process, although he left the demobilization site where he had been staying. Ramirez says he is now assembling a group of ex-guerrillas in the southern departments of Caquetá, Putumayo, and Huila to pursue income-generating projects. Ramírez writes that he seeks this reinforced security scheme because this work requires him to “be moving through zones where there are armed dissident-group personnel.”

For their part, three unnamed former FARC commanders have sought precautionary protection measures from the OAS Inter-American Human Rights Commission, citing personal insecurity. The formal request went through lawyers, and the FARC leaders asked that their names be held in reserve. El Tiempo reported, though, that one of the three is among nine ex-FARC leaders whose wheareabouts are currently unknown.

The FARC submitted a 10-page report to the Peace Committee of Colombia’s Congress alleging that only 87 of the guerrillas’ 14,000 ex-members have received government funds to carry out productive income-generating projects, as laid out in the peace accord. Seventeen such projects are so far under consideration or nearing approval, covering about eight percent of the FARC’s membership, but only two have yet been approved and begun to receive funds. The report claims that on a less-formal basis, former FARC fighters have started 259 income-generating projects on their own, two-thirds of them with their own funds and 12 percent of them with international support.

Displacement is Up Sharply

The Consultancy for Human Rights and Displacement (CODHES), a human rights group that has closely tracked forced displacement trends for over 20 years, issued a report counting 38,490 Colombians displaced by violence during the first eight months of 2018. This represents an increase over 2017.

CODHES counts 126 events of mass displacement. Of the victims, 8,376 were members of Afro-Colombian communities and 7,808 were indigenous. The majority of displacements happened in three departments; Norte de Santander, Antioquia, and Nariño. Fighting for territorial control between illegal armed groups, principally the ELN, EPL, post-paramilitary groups, and guerrilla dissidents, was the main cause.

Rightist Parties Advance Plan to Try Military Human Rights Cases Separately

Legislators from the governing Democratic Center party, together with the center-right Radical Change party, introduced legislation that would create a new chamber in the new transitional justice system, the Special Jurisdiction for Peace (JEP) to judge current and former military personnel accused of war crimes.

A procedural law for the JEP, passed in June and awaiting Constitutional Court review, freezes human rights cases against military personnel while the Congress designs a new chamber to judge them separately from former guerrillas. The bill introduced this week would do that—though the Constitutional Court could invalidate the whole effort if, when it completes its review, it strikes this provision from the June procedural law.

The law calls for the new chamber’s judges to be experts in international humanitarian law with prior knowledge of how the armed forces function. It would allow military personnel who recognize their crimes, tell truth, and give reparations to victims to serve their sentences in special military facilities. After five years, they could be released on probation.

By contrast, former guerrillas who fulfill their truth and reparations duties would be held in “restricted liberty”—a term that the judge in each case will need to define, though it can’t be prison—for up to eight years.

The chief of the Democratic Center bloc in the Senate, former president Álvaro Uribe, introduced the bill, arguing that “the Armed Forces of a democratic country can not be equalized, put on the same level as those who have committed terrorist acts.”

ELN Talks Remain Stalemated; Venezuela Removed from Guarantor Countries

The Duque government, which pulled back its negotiating team last week, continues to suspend talks in Havana with the ELN guerrillas until the group releases all individuals it has kidnapped and agrees to cease hostilities. The ELN this week put out a statement claiming that, if the Duque government changes the rules and agenda agreed with the prior government of Juan Manuel Santos, then it is showing that “the Colombian state is unable to keep its word” from one government to the next. The guerrilla delegation in Cuba tweeted a picture of its negotiators sitting across a table from a row of empty chairs with the caption “We’re ready here. The counterpart is missing.”

President Duque, in New York, insisted on his terms: “I have every wish to be able to establish a dialogue with the ELN, but you have heard me say it: I hope that the basis of the construction of a dialogue will be the liberation of all the kidnapped and an end to criminal activities.”

Duque also announced that Venezuela was no longer welcome to be one of the ELN talks’ “guarantor” countries, a list that also includes Norway, Brazil, and Chile. Duque blamed Venezuela’s harboring of ELN fighters on its soil, which made the neighboring government less than an honest broker. “A country that has sponsored the ELN in its territory, that has protected it, that has allowed criminal acts against the Colombian people to be formed from its territory, is far from being a guarantor, it is a dictatorship that has been an accomplice of many criminal activities, I’m not saying that for the first time.”

“Most of the ELN kingpins are in Venezuela,” Duque told the Washington Post. “It’s impossible to come to consider a ceasefire when part of their troops or of their membership is in another country,” said High Commissioner for Peace Miguel Ceballos. The ELN’s chief negotiator, Pablo Beltrán, dismissed allegations of guerrilla presence in Venezuela as “a myth that has been invented in Washington,” adding, “I don’t see any association between a ceasefire and where the ELN’s leaders are.”

Semana cites a recent opinion column by Carlos Velandia, a former ELN leader who went by the name “Felipe Torres” and is now a go-between for peace talks, voicing the belief that in the event of a conflict involving Venezuela, the ELN might take Venezuela’s side on Venezuelan soil.

Semana notes that Venezuela had played a big role in getting the ELN talks started during the Santos government, “the dialogues’ public phase—which opened in 2017—was even achieved and announced from Venezuela.” The magazine sees no other country stepping up to fill the vacuum.

Which country can join the group? Among the guarantors who were there when the table opened is also Cuba, but that idea doesn’t convince the government at all.

Norway, Brazil and Chile are also in the group of guarantor countries. But each has its own problems to serve even as a place to relaunch the table. Brazil is in a presidential campaign and is quite divided about it. Norway has its attention placed on the [FARC] post-conflict and the chances of it serving as the venue for negotiations are very low. Chile has had a better disposition, it even offered itself as headquarters when Ecuador withdrew as a guarantor country following a wave of “terrorist attacks” on the border.

In-Depth Reading

October 7, 2018 — 0

Disarmament, Demobilization, and LinkedIn

“I remember once, in September 2016, he started to laugh because he tried to sign up on the LinkedIn social network and when he came to the page where you have to put where you worked before, he said: ‘What the [expletive] do I put? Guerrilla leader?’ He tried to skip that part but the page didn’t let him move forward, so gave up and said, gravely: ‘We’re not ready for LinkedIn yet, we’re ready to leave the mountains, but we’re not trained, we need learning.'”

—then-demobilizing FARC leader “Carlos Antonio Lozada,” in an account by journalist Jon Lee Anderson

October 6, 2018 — 0

Arms transfers in Latin America: Links from the past month

Western Hemisphere Regional

Argentina

  • “Former Argentine President Acquitted of Arms Smuggling” (Associated Press, The New York Times, October 4, 2018).

    “The same judicial branch that processed the case for 22 years without a firm sentence, now declares Menem innocent because too much time has passed”

Colombia

Mexico

Nicaragua

  • Elízabeth Romero, “Regimen Busca Aumentar la Capacidad de Armamento de la Policia Orteguista” (La Prensa (Nicaragua), September 27, 2018).

    Jaentschke alega en la entrevista a EFE que “nuestra policía, que era una policía muy tranquila y que caminaba en las calles sin mucho armamento, tiene que ajustarse a los embates del crimen organizado que se han mostrado en estas protestas”

October 5, 2018 — 0

Some articles I found interesting this morning

(Even more here)

October 5, 2018

Western Hemisphere Regional

  • Angela Kocherga, “Record Surge of Families Crossing Border” (The Albuquerque Journal, October 5, 2018).

    “If I had space for 1,000 per week, (U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement) would release 1,000. We’re over capacity,” said Ruben Garcia, director of Annunciation House

Brazil

Colombia

Haiti, Mexico, Venezuela

  • Kate Morrissey, “More Haitians Arriving in Tijuana From Venezuela” (The San Diego Union-Tribune, October 5, 2018).

    For Haitians who had been living in Venezuela, choosing to leave that country as well is just another step on a longer migration journey

Mexico

  • , David Agren, “More Than 6,500 Children Missing in Mexico, New Data Reveals” (The Guardian (Uk), October 5, 2018).

    The problem has gone largely unrecognized until recently, and victims’ families suffered the stigma of guilt by association amid a perception – often encouraged by the authorites – that victims of the drug war were somehow complicit

Nicaragua

  • Charles Davis, “In Nicaragua, Torture Is Used to Feed ‘Fake News’” (The Daily Beast, October 5, 2018).

    “They told me if I didn’t cooperate and read what they would give me they were going to show the execution of my compañero, and then there would be another and another”

Peru

October 5, 2018 — 0

Lunch break

In the middle of writing a huge report at home. Right now I’m filling in “conclusions” on page 87 of the 91-page “findings-conclusions-recommendations” matrix I created to hold all the information we gathered in Colombia. In plainer English, that means I’m really far along.

I did go to the kitchen for a lunch break a little while ago, though, as noted on Twitter.

October 5, 2018 — 0

The day ahead: October 5, 2018

I’m reachable, but working at home. (How to contact me)

I’m in the middle of drafting a long but fascinating report telling the post-conflict story of Colombia’s central Pacific coast region, where we visited a month ago. I’ll be spending the entire day doing that, working at home wearing comfortable clothes with music at high volume. Posting to this site will be light.

October 4, 2018 — 0

Some articles I found interesting this morning

(Even more here)

October 4, 2018

Argentina

  • “Former Argentine President Acquitted of Arms Smuggling” (Associated Press, The New York Times, October 4, 2018).

    “The same judicial branch that processed the case for 22 years without a firm sentence, now declares Menem innocent because too much time has passed”

Brazil

  • Brian Winter, “Meet the New Brazil. A Lot Like the Old Brazil.” (Americas Quarterly, October 4, 2018).

    Bolsonaro now seems on the verge of becoming Brazil’s next president. He no longer wears his uniform, but make no mistake: He is the modern-day heir to Brazil’s long tradition of soldiers in power

Colombia

  • “Report of the Secretary-General” (Mision de la ONU en Colombia, October 4, 2018).

    Some have cited concerns about their physical and legal security as a motivating factor for leaving the areas where some 1,500 former combatants are undergoing reintegration. Regardless of their motivations, this development has underlined the continued fragility of the peace process

  • Ariel Ávila, Diego Alejandro Restrepo, “La Guerra por el Bajo Cauca y Norte de Antioquia” (Fundacion Paz y Reconciliacion, El Espectador (Colombia), October 4, 2018).

    Tienen aumentos de la violencia homicida hasta del 200%. Tarazá e Ituango, entre los casos más dramáticos

Colombia, Venezuela

  • Juan Manuel Florez, Juliana Gil Gutierrez, Rosalinda Hernandez, “¿Militarizacion, la Salida a la Crisis Con Venezuela?” (El Colombiano (Medellin Colombia), October 4, 2018).

    ¿Qué consecuencias tendría un eventual enfrentamiento militar? Según expertos en seguridad nacional, el que saldría peor librado sería Colombia

El Salvador, Haiti, Nicaragua

Mexico

  • Jorge Carrasco Araizaga, “Lopez Obrador Entrampado Ante los Militares” (Proceso (Mexico), October 4, 2018).

    De su rechazo a que cumplan funciones de seguridad interna, ha pasado al reconocimiento de que no se puede prescindir de ellas en el mediano plazo; y de su pretensión de crear una Guardia Nacional habla ahora de Guardia Civil… con participación militar

  • Mariana Hernandez, Rafael Lopez, “Septiembre, el Segundo Mes Mas Sangriento del Sexenio” (Milenio (Mexico), October 4, 2018).

    En septiembre se cometieron mil 456 homicidios relacionados con el crimen organizado, una cifra que se ubica como la segunda más alta del sexenio

Peru

Venezuela

October 4, 2018 — 0

Colombia’s peace accord “may erode to its barest essence”

Here’s my 250-word response to a question in today’s edition of the Inter-American Dialogue’s Latin America Advisor publication, about the state of peace accord implementation in Colombia.

Q: The U.N. Security Council on Sept. 13 extended the mandate of its mission overseeing the implementation of Colombia’s peace agreement with the FARC rebels. The council also called on the FARC and President Iván Duque’s government “to renew momentum” in implementing the peace deal. Could both sides indeed speed up implementation of the peace accord, and what should they do to achieve that? What is the significance of reports that FARC commanders Hernán Darío Velásquez, also known as “El Paisa,” and Luciano Marín, also known as “Iván Márquez,” have gone missing? Will the peace accord remain intact during Duque’s administration?

A: The FARC peace accord will remain in place, and President Duque will not “tear it to shreds.” We’ll see some efforts toward implementation. Still, the sad but likely scenario is that, over the course of the Duque government, the accord will erode to its barest essence.

The accord’s vital first chapter, on rural reform and territorial governance, is moribund. Guarantees of political participation are undermined by a wave of social-leader killings. Promises of crop-substitution support for coca-growing households are uncertain.

The main reason is that there’s no money. Colombia’s budget deficit is ballooning, and resources are being eaten up by the need to attend to Venezuelan migrants and by pressure to step up coca-eradication operations.

There’s also little political interest or institutional capacity to capitalize on the FARC’s absence and bring a state presence into long-abandoned areas. That would take a “Marshall Plan” or “moon shot” level of investment and mobilization, and it’s not happening. Meanwhile, new armed groups are filling in the territorial vacuums that the FARC left behind and the state failed to fill.

FARC members are defecting, or just “clandestinizing” themselves out of fear that they might be capriciously arrested and extradited. In the near term, the Duque government must at least get right the reintegration of ex-combatants. The cost isn’t large, but it will mean providing land to those who want to work it. And the U.S. government must state publicly that it is not seeking to round up ex-FARC leaders for extradition, that those who are sticking to their accord commitments need not abandon the process out of fear of being sent to a U.S. jail.

October 4, 2018 — 0

The day ahead: October 4, 2018

I should be reachable much of the day. (How to contact me)

I wrote thousands of words yesterday and our next Colombia report is really taking shape. Today, though, I’m going to put that aside and run through a long list of smaller tasks and commitments—some related to upcoming travel, some related to the conference we’ve scheduled for October 16.

October 3, 2018 — 0

Some articles I found interesting this morning

Reuters/Nacho Doce photo at Al Jazeera. Caption: “Brazilian presidential candidate and former military officer Jair Bolsonaro takes pictures with soldiers during an event in Sao Paulo, Brazil on May 3, 2018”

(Even more here)

October 3, 2018

Western Hemisphere Regional

Bolivia, Chile

  • Pascale Bonnefoy, “Chile, Bolivia y la Salida al Mar: Volver a Empezar” (The New York Times, October 3, 2018).

    En una decisión que tomó por sorpresa a ambos países —con una votación de doce contra tres—, el tribunal desechó en su totalidad los argumentos jurídicos de la demanda boliviana

Brazil

Colombia

  • “Farc Rechazo la Carta de Marquez y el ‘Paisa’” (El Tiempo (Colombia), October 3, 2018).

    En la misiva dirigida a la Comisión de Paz del Senado, Márquez y el ‘Paisa’ hablan de “acuerdos fallidos” y de “tres actos de insensatez” que, según ellos, han dado al traste con lo acordado

  • Jim Mustian, Joshua Goodman, “Dea’s Colombia Post Roiled by Misconduct Probes” (Associated Press, The Washington Post, October 3, 2018).

    Prior to Bogota, Dobrich oversaw the DEA’s military-style FAST teams that battled drug traffickers in Afghanistan and Latin America, and were criticized for a series of fatal shootings in Honduras in 2012

  • ““Nos Estan Matando y el Gobierno No Hace Nada”: Lider Social en la Cidh” (El Espectador (Colombia), October 3, 2018).

    Héctor Marino Carabalí, protagonista del documental “Nos están matando”, se reunió esta semana con la organización de derechos humanos y el Departamento de Estado de los Estados Unidos para exponer por qué están matando a los líderes sociales en Colombia

  • “Ministro de Defensa Insiste en Regular la Protesta Social” (El Espectador (Colombia), October 3, 2018).

    Respecto a la regulación de esa protesta social, sostuvo su posición y extendió la invitación al Congreso para que legisle esta manifestación ciudadana, “que debe de ser libre y pacífica”

  • Nelson Matta Colorado, Ricardo Monsalve Gaviria, “Bombardean Campamento de “Cabuyo” en Briceno” (El Colombiano (Medellin Colombia), October 3, 2018).

    Al parecer estaba ubicado un campamento de Ricardo Abel Ayala, alias Cabuyo, principal cabecilla de las disidencias del frente 36 de las Farc

Mexico

  • Paris Martínez, “A 50 Anos de la Masacre de Tlatelolco: Estamos Aqui para No Olvidar” (Animal Politico (Mexico), October 3, 2018).

    Estudiantes de universidades públicas y privadas y exintegrantes del movimiento de 1968 marcharon para conmemorar a las víctimas de la masacre del 2 de octubre. Todos bajo la misma consigna: Nunca más

  • , Rep. Eliot Engel (D-New York), “Engel Decries Trump Administration Funding Deportations From Mexico” (U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs Democratic Office, October 3, 2018).

    Transferring scarce State Department resources—which could be used for poverty reduction or democracy promotion—to the Department of Homeland Security sets an extremely dangerous precedent

  • Mark Stevenson, “Trump to Skip Inauguration of Mexico’s President” (Associated Press, Yahoo, October 3, 2018).

    During a telephone conversation, Lopez Obrador talked to Trump about plans for development projects in Central America and Mexico aimed at reducing the need for people to emigrate north

Nicaragua

Venezuela

  • Roger Noriega, “The U.S. Is Watching From the Sidelines as Venezuela Destabilizes the Region” (The Washington Post, October 3, 2018).

    U.S. authorities could delegitimize the regime by indicting its leaders and exposing its criminality, choke off the gangsters’ access to hundreds of billions in looted oil revenue, sow division among regime leaders, or induce a rebellion among patriotic soldiers who are known to be upset

  • “Diosdado Cabello a la Onu: “Si Ponen un Pie en Venezuela, Seran Destruidos”” (La Republica (Peru), October 3, 2018).

    Consultado sobre si Venezuela recibirá ayuda humanitaria de la ONU, el militar venezolano dijo que Maduro aceptó la entrada del buque hospital y además dijo que si alguno de los miembros de la Organización de las Naciones Unidas “pone un pie en su tierra sin permiso, serán destruidos”

October 3, 2018 — 0

The day ahead:October 3, 2018

I’ll be most reachable mid-day and late afternoon. (How to contact me)

I’m deep into report-writing today (the report based on our fieldwork in Colombia a month ago). Other than two meetings in the afternoon, I’ll be at the keyboard trying to make the cursor go from left to right as fast as possible. Responses to messages may be slow.

October 2, 2018 — 0

Some articles I found interesting this morning

(Even more here)

October 2, 2018

Bolivia, Chile

Brazil

  • Beatrice Christofaro, Marcelo Silva de Sousa, Peter Prengaman, “In Brazil Congress, Bolsonaro’s Record Thin; Army Was Focus” (Associated Press, The Washington Post, October 2, 2018).

    The Associated Press reviewed and categorized all 642 legislative filings by Bolsonaro since he entered Congress in 1991

  • Ciara Long, “In Brazil, Voters’ Far-Right Fears Carry Weight of History” (The Christian Science Monitor, October 2, 2018).

    “Fascist,” “authoritarian,” “far-right” – words that are thrown around in US politics these days. But what does it feel like to discuss those terms in a country that actually has memories of a military dictatorship?

Colombia

  • Ricardo Monsalve Gaviria, “Van Mas de 150 Hechos Violentos de las Disidencias” (El Colombiano (Medellin Colombia), October 2, 2018).

    Walter Patricio Arizala, alias Guacho, y Ricardo Abel Ayala, alias Cabuyo, son los cabecillas de disidencias que más han llamado la atención de las autoridades por sus acciones criminales en Nariño y Antioquia respectivamente

  • Manuel Rueda, “Colombia’s President Cracks Down on Drug Use” (Associated Press **, October 2, 2018).

    President Ivan Duque signed a decree on Monday enabling police to search people and confiscate any drugs they have on them. Offenders will also be fined

Cuba

El Salvador

Guatemala

  • Sandra Cuffe, “Guatemala’s Army Breaks Ranks With President Over Court Ruling” (Al Jazzeera, October 2, 2018).

    “The army has to obey civilian rule and the Constitution, and the authentic interpreter of the Constitution is the Constitutional Court. So, what the army is saying regarding the court is what is right”

  • Jo-Marie Burt, Paulo Estrada, “Dos Erres Massacre Trial Starts Today” (International Justice Monitor, Open Society Foundations, October 2, 2018).

    After years of inaction by the Guatemalan courts, FAMDEGUA brought the case to the Inter-American System of Human Rights. In 2009, the Inter-American Court of Human Rights found the state of Guatemala responsible

Mexico

  • Luis Hernandez Navarro, “Amlo, el Ejercito y el 68” (La Jornada (Mexico), October 2, 2018).

    Es muy delicado involucrar a las fuerzas armadas en funciones de policía. Buena parte de las violaciones a los derechos humanos que la milicia ha cometido son resultado, en mucho, de su acción en tareas de seguridad pública

Nicaragua

  • Jude Webber, “Nicaragua Issues New Warning to Protesters” (The Financial Times (UK), October 2, 2018).

    The Nicaraguan Police on Friday declared demonstrations illegal and on Saturday deployed riot police against protesters gathering for a march

Peru

  • Franklin Briceno, “Ex-Army General Accused of Murder Leads Mayoral Race in Peru” (Associated Press, The Washington Post, October 2, 2018).

    On Thursday, a panel of judges will decide if the 62-year-old ex-general is guilty of killing a journalist who was murdered while covering the bloody conflict between the Peruvian state and Shining Path guerrillas

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