Adam Isacson

Defense, security, borders, migration, and human rights in Latin America and the United States. May not reflect my employer’s consensus view.

Archives

March 2019

The day ahead: March 13, 2019

I’ll be more reachable in the afternoon. (How to contact me)

I’m meeting with a colleague from a foundation this morning, and we have an internal WOLA meeting at lunch hour. Otherwise I’ll be at my desk, writing about Colombia, doing some documentary research, and preparing for a few upcoming in-person briefings. Within a few hours, I’ll post a new WOLA Podcast about El Salvador.

Some articles I found interesting this morning

Gustavo Torrijos photo at El Espectador (Colombia). Caption: “De acuerdo con informes presentados por la JEP, el flagelo de los falsos positivos se concentró en 29 de los 32 departamentos del país.”

(Even more here)

March 12, 2019

Western Hemisphere Regional

The demand for $8.6 billion for a border wall, less than two months after a 35-day partial government shutdown paralyzed much of Washington, raised the possibility that there could be an even more dramatic impasse

In the event the supreme court rules and allows the government to resume aerial eradication, provide resources from the United States for that program. So that’s why you see significant uptick

Brazil

Os dois foram presos na madrugada desta terça-feira, 12. A denúncia formulada pelo Grupo de Atuação Especial de Combate ao Crime Organizado do MP-RJ classificou o crime como um “golpe ao Estado Democrático de Direito”

Colombia

Fecode, las comunidades indígenas, afros y campesinas del suroccidente del país y los cultivadores de coca en Meta, Caquetá y el sur de Córdoba anuncian protestas

Authorities at the Port of New York and New Jersey have seized about 3,200 pounds of cocaine in what authorities are calling the largest cocaine seizure at the port in nearly 25 years

En entrevista con BLU Radio dijo que el espaldarazo a Duque se basa en cuatro puntos fundamentales, que incluyen el tratado de extradición y el manejo del listado de miembros de las extintas Farc para evitar colados

Lamentamos que, a más de dos años de la firma del Acuerdo Final, la JEP aún no cuente con una Ley Estatutaria, marco jurídico sólido que garantice su operación en pleno ejercicio de autonomía e independencia

El gobierno del presidente Iván Duque Márquez persiste en formular nuevos obstáculos, o en intentar revivir debates ya superados en el trámite legislativo de las normas que deben regular el funcionamiento del recién inaugurado sistema de justicia transicional

Guatemala

The amnesty has gained traction in Congress as part of a reaction against a broader fight against impunity and corruption

Mexico

Las tres candidatas han sido severamente cuestionadas por la sociedad civil por su cercanía con el partido político del Presidente López Obrador

AMLO’s calculated strategy isn’t a new Mexican playbook. It harkens back to the PRI’s heyday

Peru

Gen. Céliz, a WHINSEC instructor in the late ‘90s, caught up with former colleagues and conducted a lecture for the WHINSEC Command and General Staff Officer course

Cuba, Venezuela

This story is not complete without acknowledging the central role Cuba and Russia have played and continue to play in undermining the democratic dreams of the Venezuelan people and their welfare

Venezuela

Many parts of the country are still cut off and it is hard to get a full account of their situation. Even when the electricity returns, it is often patchy and only lasts for a few hours

Guaidó said the exodus of millions of Venezuelans over the last several years likely meant there were not enough engineers left to help end the blackouts

Mr. Pompeo said the move reflected the “deteriorating situation” in the country and the belief that the presence of American diplomats “has become a constraint on U.S. policy.” The last phrase could be read as hinting at some form of military intervention

The day ahead: March 12, 2019

I’m around for much of the day. (How to contact me)

I’m in the office all day, with three phone meetings on the calendar but otherwise at my desk. I’ll be doing logistics for planned travel in April (border) and May (Latin American Studies Association conference); helping put together an analysis of the Trump budget request issued yesterday; and writing a memo about recent developments in Colombia.

Some articles I found interesting this morning

Valery Sharifulin/Tass/Zuma Press photo at The Wall Street Journal. Caption: “A massive power outage in Venezuela has left the streets of the capital Caracas dark.”

(Even more here)

March 11, 2019

Western Hemisphere Regional

Mr. Trump will request $8.6 billion in the annual budget proposal, aides said

“This is where we’ve seen a few of the large groups come through. They come to the end of the fence, come right around this edge and make their way and turn themselves in to the agents here”

According to an internal document reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, officials at U.S. Customs and Border Protection anticipate between 51,000 and 58,000 migrants traveling as families will either cross the border illegally or ask for asylum at a legal border crossing this month

She is introducing the bipartisan U.S. Customs and Border Protection Rural and Remote Hiring and Retention Strategy Act with Rep. Will Hurd, R-Texas

Activists and freelance journalists named in the leaked dossiers, published last week by San Diego’s NBC7, have reported being stopped and searched when they cross back into the U.S.

Brazil

The authorities investigating Marielle’s death have neither confirmed or denied that they are following lines of investigation reported by the media regarding the possible involvement in of military police officers, local officials, militia groups or a group of professional hitmen

Colombia

La objeción sólo generaría un debate de ocho o nueve meses y que, finalmente, tendría que echarla a andar

Eso puede llevar a que muchos decidan finalmente irse a engrosar las filas de las disidencias, algo que jefes de la Farc como Fabián Ramírez han intentado evitar

Guatemala

With the failure of these motions challenging the amnesty bill to be approved, the second reading concluded, paving the way for it to advance to the third and final reading before it can become law

Mexico

Si bien celebran medidas como las liberaciones de los denominados presos políticos, miran con recelo y preocupación decisiones como la creación de una Guardia Nacional, y alertan sobre una continua criminalización de defensores de derechos humanos y periodistas

En el primer bimestre de la administración morenista la violencia creció 2.12 por ciento al registrar 102 crímenes más que el último bimestre de Enrique Peña Nieto

Venezuela

Restarting the turbines requires skilled operators who can synchronize the speed of rotation on as many as nine of Guri’s operational turbines. Experts said the most experienced operators have long left the company

“We say you should not be helping this regime. You should be on the side of the Venezuelan people,” Elliott Abrams told Reuters

“[Monday] will be a key day, depending on what happens with the electricity [on Sunday],” he said, concerned there would be more deaths

A reconstruction of the moment when a truck bearing humanitarian supplies was set on fire shows the likely cause was a Molotov cocktail thrown by a protester

The day ahead: March 11, 2019

I’m in continuous meetings throughout the day, and will be hard to contact. (How to contact me)

I’ll be in a long morning staff meeting, lunch with a Colombian colleague, a visit to Senate committee staff, and a call with a House staffer. When at a desk, I may be analyzing the White House budget request—both homeland security and foreign aid.

At least on foreign aid, I may not rush to put the numbers out by the end of the day (i.e. “the White House wants to cut Colombia aid by 35 percent”), as I have in the past. The Trump administration’s foreign aid requests have been so unrealistic, and so quickly and summarily rejected by Congress, that they don’t deserve a rapid-response analysis.

The Homeland request, which is to include a big ask for the border wall, is a different story: even though Congress will reject it, we know that the White House will go to ridiculous lengths for it. Speaking of which, this week the Senate will vote this week on (and approve by a narrow margin) a resolution rejecting Trump’s national emergency declaration moving funds to build the wall, which the president will veto.

In Colombia, meanwhile, the president just line-item-vetoed the legislation that the post-conflict transitional justice system needs to operate. I’ve already done an angry tweet, but before publishing more I need to hear from Colombian colleagues and analysts who understand legislative procedure, in order to judge how severe a blow this is to the peace process and what can be done about it.

Latin America-related events in Washington this week

Tuesday, March 12

Wednesday, March 13

Thursday, March 14

  • 12:15–1:45 at the Inter-American Dialogue: Energy Policy in Argentina: A Conversation with Secretary Lopetegui (RSVP required).
  • 12:30–1:30 in Room 421, Cannon House Office Building: Challenges & Contributions of TPS Holders.
  • 12:30–2:00 at Georgetown University: Art & Political Dissidence with Juan Luis Landaeta (RSVP required).
  • 4:30–6:00 at WOLA: Violence and Hardline Citizen Security in El Salvador (RSVP required).
  • 5:00–6:30 at the Atlantic Council: Plan País: Building the New Venezuela – A Roadmap for Reconstruction (RSVP required).

WOLA Podcast: A Humanitarian Crisis, Not a National Emergency

Here’s a conversation with my WOLA colleague Maureen Meyer about the border, which we recorded last Thursday afternoon and posted last Friday morning.

U.S. and Mexican border communities are contending with a surge of asylum-seeking children and parents, arriving by the thousands each day. The Trump administration portrays it as a “national emergency” and is sending troops, turning asylum-seekers away, and circumventing Congress to build walls.

Adam Isacson (WOLA’s Director for Defense Oversight) and Maureen Meyer (WOLA’s Director for Mexico and Migration) discuss why the crisis is happening, and the Trump administration’s cruel efforts to “deter” migrants. Adam talks about what he’s seen over two weeks in San Diego and Tijuana so far this year. Then both outline a vision of what the process for asylum-seekers would look like if the U.S. and Mexican governments adjusted from a “security emergency” to a “humanitarian crisis” response.

Resources cited in the podcast include:

  • WOLA’s graphical overview of the February migrant data, which U.S. Customs and Border Protection released on March 5.
  • A December 2018 “snapshot” report, and February 2019 update, detailing current asylum waitlists at ports of entry across the U.S.-Mexico border, by the Strauss Center at the University of Texas at Austin, the Center for U.S.-Mexican Studies at the University of California at San Diego, and the Migration Policy Center at the European University Institute.
  • WOLA’s Central America Monitor, which tracks U.S. aid to the region and evaluates its progress.
  • WOLA’s new Asylum Resources for Attorneys, compiled with the Temple University Beasley School of Law to provide resources for lawyers representing Central American asylum seekers.

Restarting Aerial Fumigation of Drug Crops in Colombia is a Mistake

Colombia’s Constitutional Court met today to discuss the government’s plans to reinstate aerial spraying of coca. President Iván Duque was the first to address the high court; he asked the justices to “modulate” their past rulings to allow more spraying.

I just posted an analysis of this to WOLA’s website. It addresses a series of questions:

  • Why did coca cultivation increase so much?
  • Is glyphosate dangerous?
  • What restrictions did Colombia’s Constitutional Court put in place in 2017?
  • What do the peace accords call for?
  • What do US officials say?
  • Is aerial spraying effective?
  • What other options are there?
  • How else could we measure success?
  • Is crop eradication effective in any form?

Read the whole thing here.

The day ahead: March 6, 2019

I’ll be hard to reach today. (How to contact me)

Yesterday morning, I wrote that I had to spend the day getting re-organized after much travel and time spent reacting to things. But CBP released numbers showing a big jump in February family migration, so I spent the afternoon working on that instead.

So today I’m working at home, planning out the next few months and watching the several hearings on border security and migration happening before congressional committees. My replies may be delayed.

Graphics: the new CBP border/migration data in context

This afternoon U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) released a lot of new data about migrants at the border through February. Here are updated versions of some graphics, using official data, that put those numbers in context.

For the first time ever, an incredible 61 percent of all migrants apprehended by Border Patrol at the U.S.-Mexico border are children, and parents with children. This proportion was never as high as 10 percent before 2012.
Child and family apprehensions took a big leap in February, overwhelming Border Patrol’s capacity to deal with them—and U.S. humanitarian groups’ capacity as well.
The number of single adults being apprehended at the border remains near 50-year lows, and less than most of 2016. The typical migrant is no longer an adult traveling alone.
The same thing is happening in Mexico, which has seen asylum requests almost double every year since 2014. As in the United States, most of those requesting are citizens of El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras fleeing violence and poverty.
At official land ports of entry, there has been no increase in asylum-seekers. That is because CBP is rigidly “metering” arrivals of those who would seek asylum the “proper” way, posting officers at the borderline to prevent them from presenting themselves inside the ports.
The largest percent increase in migration in February came from Honduras. Some were probably participants in a mid-January caravan, who received humanitarian visas from the Mexican government. As this was a one-time event—Mexico is not offering the visas in-country now—the number of Hondurans may drop in March.
Guatemala is the number-one country for child and family arrivals. The flow is heaviest from the country’s rural highlands. A robust trafficking route is taking many to remote desert zones like Yuma and the New Mexico bootheel.
El Salvador has dropped to a distant third in child and family arrivals. The “northern triangle” is increasingly two-sided.
Arrivals from other countries are up, too. Many are probably fleeing Nicaragua’s brutal crackdown on dissent.
CBP data show that of heroin, cocaine, fentanyl, and methamphetamine seized at the border, the overwhelming majority—80 to 90 percent—is seized at ports of entry, not the spaces between the ports where walls would be built.
CBP data show that of heroin, cocaine, fentanyl, and methamphetamine seized at the border, the overwhelming majority—80 to 90 percent—is seized at ports of entry, not the spaces between the ports where walls would be built.
CBP data show that of heroin, cocaine, fentanyl, and methamphetamine seized at the border, the overwhelming majority—80 to 90 percent—is seized at ports of entry, not the spaces between the ports where walls would be built.
CBP data show that of heroin, cocaine, fentanyl, and methamphetamine seized at the border, the overwhelming majority—80 to 90 percent—is seized at ports of entry, not the spaces between the ports where walls would be built.
The one drug that is primarily seized between the ports of entry, where walls would be built, is marijuana. But marijuana trafficking from Mexico has dropped sharply since 2013. Several U.S. states’ legalization dealt a severe blow to Mexican cannabis traffickers.
The average Border Patrol agent apprehended 23 migrants during all of fiscal 2018. And 9 of them (40 percent) were children and families who, in most cases, sought to be apprehended.
Though we still await data for 2018, in 2017 Border Patrol agents were apprehending far more migrants in Texas’s Rio Grande Valley sector than elsewhere.

Huge archive of congressional hearing audios about Latin America and the border

I can only rarely attend congressional hearings, and during a week like this one, when several hearings are happening at the same time, I can’t view them on video either. And anyway, who has the time to sit through hours of videos, which require you to stop what you’re doing to both watch and listen?

Still, hearings are a critical way to get information about U.S. policy toward Latin America. You learn a lot from officials’ responses to questions (some of which we’ve suggested). And you learn a lot about what legislators’ priorities are, and what it might be worth following up with their offices about.

So for the past couple of years, I’ve saved mp3 audio of every congressional hearing I’ve found relevant (thanks, youtube-dl, for making that easy). I can listen to an mp3 while doing something else that doesn’t require a lot of concentration, like driving, exercising, or doing the dishes.

At this point, I have quite an archive: 54 hearing audios since 2017, all of them with metadata following the same format. Here they are in one Google Drive folder, going up to last Friday.

They’re all mp3 files—just drop them on iTunes, Overcast, or your preferred audio player. (Tell iTunes that they’re “audiobooks” and it’ll remember your place.) I try to keep this folder reasonably up to date.

I suspect that if you’re geeky enough to find this useful, you may already have a similar system for keeping up with this information. Still, I hope it’s helpful to someone else out there.

The day ahead: March 5, 2019

I’ll be reachable much of the day, but not mid-day. (How to contact me)

There are so many hearings about border security and migration going on today that, unless you’re Elvis watching 3 TV sets simultaneously in his bedroom, you couldn’t process them all. It’s fantastic to see this level of oversight taking place, though it will be weeks before I’m able to get down all of the intel that we learn from this week and last week on Capitol Hill.

Meanwhile, after a lot of travel in mid-February and over 30 hours of meetings last week, my system for organizing work is a mess. I hit bottom yesterday when I had to write a colleague to whom I’d agreed on three commitments, and ask her to remind me what I’d committed to do. So I badly need to regroup: the weeds have taken over the garden.

I have a bit of urgent work to do today—guest-teaching a class via Skype, some input to give on the future of WOLA’s communications team, sending information and questions for upcoming hearings. The problem is, I’m not even sure what other urgent items I’m missing. I need to take several hours today and tomorrow to process and pull commitments out of the past few weeks’ notes and documents—which number about 200 files, plus email—then decide which projects should get done when, what I need to do them, and what I can delegate.

So I’ll be doing that: reachable, but perhaps slower to respond, and not posting much here or elsewhere until, I expect, late Wednesday or early Thursday.

Unless, of course, something unexpected happens in Colombia, Venezuela, or at the border.

The day ahead: March 4, 2019

I’m around in the early afternoon, but lots of meetings. (How to contact me)

I’m in Washington all week, a bit tired from what, according to my timekeeping app, was a 70-hour week last week. (Not bragging—that’s not a good thing.) Today I’ve got the weekly staff meeting in the morning, coffee with a colleague visiting from Colombia mid-afternoon, and a call with a professor carrying out a research project in the late afternoon. Otherwise I’ll be in the office sending out information to congressional staff ahead of a few hearings this week, and putting together a presentation I’m giving to a class, via Skype, at Tufts University tomorrow.

Latin America-related events in Washington this week

Tuesday, March 5

  • 8:30–11:00 at the Inter-American Dialogue: Political Finance and State Capture in the Americas (RSVP required).
  • 9:00–3:30 at the Wilson Center: The Outlook for Mexico’s Energy Sector under the AMLO Administration (RSVP required).
  • 3:30–6:00 at the Inter-American Dialogue: Book Launch: Unfulfilled Promises – Latin America Today (RSVP required).

Wednesday, March 6

Thursday, March 7

Friday, March 8

  • 9:00–11:00 at the Wilson Center: The Challenges of Rural Reform in Colombia (RSVP required).

Some articles I found interesting this morning

EFE photo at La República (Peru). Caption: “Después del fallido intento de ingreso de ayuda humanitaria, más de medio millar de uniformados retiraron su lealtad al régimen de Maduro.”

(Even more here)

March 1, 2019

Western Hemisphere Regional

An official from the Department of Homeland Security, of which CBP is a part, said those abandoning legal entry points may not have legitimate asylum claims

While the Democrats can claim success in the increased ATD spending and potential decrease in detention space, the spending agreement is unlikely to force ICE to decrease the numbers of people detained

From 2010 to 2016, about two thirds of undocumented arrivals overstayed temporary visas; only one third entered across the southern border

Argentina

The court sentenced eight people accused of a cover-up, among them a former federal judge and a former head of the intelligence services, but it acquitted five others, including the highest-profile defendant: former President Carlos Menem

Brazil

It was the second highest number of killings for the month of January since 1998

Caribbean Regional

State has not created an initiative-wide planning and reporting mechanism that facilitates interagency coordination or establishes consistent performance indicators across agencies, countries, and activities

Colombia

Aquí está en juego la credibilidad y legitimidad de la comandancia de las Fuerzas Militares para dirigir a un Ejército capaz de cuidar a la población de forma profesional y respetuosa de los derechos humanos

Guatemala

Tension is rising over the proposed legislation and the possibility that convicted criminals could walk free and that future investigations in hundreds of other cases would be blocked

Mexico

“We are hearing one thing locally and another thing in Washington, and we are trying to find out exactly what’s going on,” said Escobar, saying the situation is fluid

Mexico’s Congress will now have to pass three additional laws within a 60 to 120-day period

In the end, Congress decided the National Guard would have an explicitly civilian, rather than military, character, with the new force lodged under the authority of the civilian Ministry of Security and Citizen Protection

En una primera etapa la Guardia Nacional se formará con 35 mil integrantes de la Policía Militar, ocho mil de la Policía Naval, 18 mil de Fuerzas Federales y Gendarmería, y 20 mil efectivos que serán reclutados y capacitados

In recent years, people have been fleeing Guerrero and Michoacán not only to improve their lives, but to save their lives

Mexico, Western Hemisphere Regional

For U.S. policymakers, it may be overkill to direct the resources of six federal law enforcement agencies toward dismantling these groups, especially in the era of synthetic drugs

Venezuela

“No hay comida. No tienen colchones, nosotros los sargentos de la Guardia Nacional estamos durmiendo en el suelo”

The ongoing economic crisis has driven many impoverished Venezuelans into working in the illegal mining sector. Armed state and non-state actors, Colombian guerrillas foremost among them, have also expanded in this resource-rich region

“I can dispel the theory that there is a military option for Venezuela,” says a defence official in Washington. She denies that staff are being asked to draw up plans

Rep. Eliot Engel (D., N.Y.), the chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said that Venezuela should hold an election before any new leader assumes power

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