RSS - Posts
I’ll be hard to contact today. (How to contact me)
I’m in an all-day staff training at WOLA. The family are out of town for 2 days, though, so I hope to get some writing and research done at home tonight.
April 30, 2019 — 0
April 2019
April 29, 2019 — 0
The best song I washed dishes to tonight
“Another Story” by The Essex Green (2018).
April 29, 2019 — 0
Big JEP vote today in Colombia’s Senate
(Cross-posted from WOLA’s colombiapeace.org blog)
On March 11 Colombian President Iván Duque threw the country’s peace process into semi-paralysis. He formally “objected” to parts of the law underlying the transitional justice system that the accords had set up for judging ex-combatants’ human rights crimes. The “objections,” essentially a line-item veto, sent back to Colombia’s Congress a law that originally passed in November 2017. Today, Colombia’s Senate is to vote on the objections, a major milestone in this labyrinthine process.
Without an underlying “Statutory Law,” the transitional-justice system, the Special Jurisdiction for Peace (JEP), can function but is badly hobbled. The JEP is a special tribunal, developed after 19 months of contentious negotiations between the government and the FARC guerrillas in Havana, to judge those on both sides who have committed war crimes or crimes against humanity. In exchange for full confessions and reparations to victims, the JEP sentences war criminals to up to eight years of “restricted liberty,” not quite prison. This was enough to convince 13,000 FARC guerrillas to demobilize, making the JEP the backbone of the 2016 peace accord. But the perception of leniency has made it unpopular and vulnerable to political attack.
For the 11,000 ex-guerrillas and 1,950 military personnel who have signed up to be tried in the JEP, President Duque’s “objections” cause more delay and more uncertainty. And more uncertainty—even the possibility that the JEP Statutory Law could collapse—raises concern among ex-combatants that they could be imprisoned or even extradited to the United States. That possibility could cause hundreds, or even thousands, of ex-combatants to take up arms again. This is serious.
What happened?
For readers coming to this story late, a bit of chronology is in order.
- The government-FARC peace accord went into effect on December 1, 2016. That set in motion a 12-month countdown in which Colombia’s Congress had “fast track” authority to quickly pass legislation needed to implement the accord. Just before the “fast track” deadline, at the very end of November 2017, Congress finally passed the Statutory Law for the JEP. Legislators added some problematic provisions, but at least the JEP had a legal underpinning.
- The law then passed to Colombia’s highest judicial review body, the Constitutional Court, to assess its constitutionality. In August 2018, the Court signed off on most of the law. In December 2018, the Constitutional Court published its 980-page decision.
- That set off a three-month countdown for President Duque, who took office in August 2018, to sign the bill into law. Just before that deadline, on March 11, Duque sent the Statutory Law back to Congress with objections to six of its 159 articles. They mainly had to do with reparations, the definition of “maximum responsible” war criminals, and extradition procedures.
Duque’s objections drew an outcry from peace accord supporters, both within Colombia and in the international community. Opposition legislators, led by former government peace negotiator Juanita Goebertus, used a newly won “right of rebuttal” to broadcast a video laying out the dangers posed by Duque’s move.
The only international government to support Duque’s actions was the Trump administration, in the person of Ambassador Kevin Whitaker, who went on national radio and met with members of Congress to argue for the objections that would ease extradition to the United States.
What happens now?
The JEP Statutory Law went to Colombia’s Congress, which is charged with voting to accept or reject President Duque’s objections. Colombia’s House and Senate vote separately. As we understand it, there are three possible outcomes:
- If both houses of Congress uphold Duque’s objections, they go back to the Constitutional Court for review. That Court already approved the law’s provisions after exhaustive review in 2018, so it would be likely to overturn the objections again.
- If both houses reject the objections, Duque must sign the bill into law as is, which would be a huge political defeat for him.
- If the two houses of Congress split, it’s not clear what might happen, as this situation has never come up under Colombia’s 1991 constitution. Probably, the six objections would be “archived,” and the law would go to the Court’s review without them. But it’s possible that the whole JEP law could get “archived,” or shut down, which would be disastrous. The Constitutional Court will have to decide.
On April 8, Colombia’s House of Representatives dealt President Duque a blistering defeat, voting 110-44 against his objections, with moderate and centrist parties joining the left. (This owed partly to concern about torpedoing the peace process, and partly to an unwillingness to hand Duque’s party a big political victory six months before nationwide gubernatorial and mayoral elections.) That eliminated option 1 above.
It is now up to the Senate to decide whether option 2 or option 3 will prevail. The vote will probably be closer there, not least because a senator from Duque’s party currently holds the body’s presidency. Analyses in Colombia’s media, though, indicate a majority of senators is likely to reject Duque’s objections, which would preserve the Statutory Law as is and deal an embarrassing blow to Iván Duque.
Duque’s supporters know this, and they have used gambits and delaying tactics to delay the Senate vote. Opposition observers worry that the governing party has been using the extra time making promises of patronage, like party positions in ministries, in order to turn the votes of enough moderate senators to gain a majority.
The vote is scheduled for today, Monday, April 29. Unless there are further delays, by Tuesday we should know whether President Duque’s objections have succeeded in keeping the JEP, and the peace process, in a state of semi-paralysis. This is an important vote.
April 29, 2019 — 0
The day ahead: April 29, 2019
I’ll be hard to reach today. (How to contact me)
I’ve got a few internal WOLA meetings scattered through the day, a call with a congressional office, and a Colombia event to moderate at WOLA this evening. I’ll be sort of reachable in the late afternoon, but working head-down in the office to get some writing done.
April 28, 2019 — 0
The best song I washed dishes to tonight
“Adored” by Hatchie (2018).
April 28, 2019 — 0
Latin America-related events this week in Washington
Monday, April 29
- 3:00–5:00 at the OAS: Childhood that Counts: The Impact of Drug Policies on Children and Adolescents with Imprisoned Mothers and Fathers in Latin America and the Caribbean.
- 6:30–7:30 at WOLA: The Monumental Task of Bringing Truth, Justice and Non-Repetition To a Fractured Colombia (RSVP required).
Tuesday, April 30
- 9:00 in Room 2359, Rayburn House Office Building: Hearing of the House Appropriations Homeland Security Subcommittee on FY2020 Budget – Department of Homeland Security.
- 10:00 in Room 310, Cannon House Office Building: Hearing of the House Homeland Security Subcommittee on Border Security, Facilitation, and Operations on The Impacts of Trump Policies on Border Communities.
- 2:00–4:00 in Room 902, Hart Senate Office Building: The VRIC: Tracing the roots of Venezuela, Russia, Iran & China security & intelligence cooperation (RSVP required).
- 2:30 in Room 138, Dirksen Senate Office Building: Hearing of the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs to examine proposed budget estimates and justification for fiscal year 2020 for the United States Agency for International Development.
- 3:30–5:00 at CSIS: Pursuing Effective and Conflict-Aware Stabilization (RSVP required).
Wednesday, May 1
- 10:00 in Room 310, Cannon House Office Building: Hearing of the House Homeland Security Committee on Trouble at the Top: Are Vacancies at the Department of Homeland Security Undermining the Mission?.
Friday, May 3
- 9:00–11:00 at USIP: Colombia at a Critical Juncture for Peace (RSVP required).
April 28, 2019 — 0
WOLA Podcast: Taking a Chainsaw to Cuba Policy
I posted this to wola.org on Thursday:
The Trump administration has gone full hard-line against Cuba, announcing severe new measures—including a once-unthinkable authority to allow owners of seized Cuban property to sue in U.S. courts.
WOLA’s vice president for programs, Geoff Thale, explains why these new punishments and restrictions won’t bring “regime change” to the island, and instead how they will hurt its struggling private sector. He and host Adam Isacson look at the politics underlying these steps, and whether they’re likely to be long-lasting.
April 27, 2019 — 0
Soldiers apparently caught digging a grave for a murdered ex-FARC member
At least 128 former members of the FARC guerrillas have been killed since Colombia signed its peace accord in November 2016. That’s not even counting 7-month-old Samuel David Gonzalez Pushaina, killed in an April 15 attack on his parents, both demobilized FARC members, in La Guajira.
But the case of Dimar Torres, a former FARC militia member killed in the Catatumbo region of northeast Colombia, is even more serious because it involves the security forces. Colombia’s military is going on the offensive in Catatumbo, a region of smallholding farmers with lots of armed groups, coca, and proximity to Venezuela. Catatumbo has big security needs—but in the past, the armed forces have been complicit in serious human rights violations there. Those include aiding and abetting a paramilitary terror campaign, with multiple massacres, that was most intense there between 1999 and 2002.
So this account of what happened to Dimar Torres on April 22, recounted by Jineth Prieto in La Silla Vacía, is especially concerning:
His fellow campesinos from the village of Carrizal, in the district of Miraflores [in Convención municipality], noticed his absence after hearing shots. They went out to look for him when they realized that he was the only one not answering calls. They demanded that the Army [camped nearby] produce him. They entered into the camp and found him dead with three shots (one in the head), half naked and lying next to a road.
They realized that the soldiers were digging a hole that was big enough to bury him and his motorcycle, and they cordoned off the area after sending an alert on WhatsApp -with videos and audios- to request that media and authorities arrive at the village to verify what was happening.
Dimar Torres Arévalo, excombatiente de las Farc, fue asesinado por militares del Ejército en Norte de Santander, según señalan habitantes de la vereda Carrizal. Los militares iban a esconder el cuerpo en una fosa común.
— Ana la vecina (@LaSinEstilo) April 24, 2019
Macabro.pic.twitter.com/9D8XmviQMJ
Three big takeaways here:
- It’s encouraging that the residents of Carrizal, Convención—a remote area far from the nearest paved road—were bold enough to confront the Army about what had happened. We also have modern smartphones to thank for getting the word out. One wonders how the worst years of Colombia’s conflict (late 90s, early 00s) would have gone if campesinos had cameras and broadband back then.
- Right now, the Army’s campaign in Catatumbo, just getting underway, could go one of two ways: horrific scorched earth, or “hearts and minds.” The spectacle of soldiers digging a grave for an extrajudicially executed civilian is a big warning sign of the former. Prieto’s article discusses some other recent incidents involving military personnel. Colombia needs to bring the Dimar Torres case to justice swiftly and conspicuously, or the military can forget about winning the trust of Catatumbo’s population. Note added April 28: the commander of the military task force in Catatumbo has acknowledged the crime and asked forgiveness. This is no substitute for a judicial process, but it is a very good first step on the “hearts and minds” front.
- Almost exactly 1 percent of demobilized guerrillas have now been killed. (Not counting dissident guerrillas killed in combat.) Colombia needs to get a handle on this quickly, improving protection and punishing those responsible, or the gains of the 2016 accord will evaporate.
April 25, 2019 — 0
The day ahead: April 25, 2019
I’ll be difficult to contact today. (How to contact me)
I’ll barely be in the office today: I’ve got a meeting to talk about the border with a congressional staffer, a long mid-day meeting to help choose a human rights award nominee, and an afternoon medical appointment for my daughter.
April 24, 2019 — 0
The best song I washed dishes to tonight
“Fully Present” by Styrofoam (2018).
April 24, 2019 — 0
The day ahead: April 24, 2019
I’m in the office from late morning until end of day. (How to contact me)
I’m home in the morning, at my computer while repair work gets done on our house. Other than a lunch with the interns and a meeting with some Colombians brought up by a State Department visitors’ program, I’ll be in the office working on two different articles: one about Colombia and one a nearly-done analysis of U.S.-Latin American security relations right now.
April 23, 2019 — 0
The best song I washed dishes to tonight
“The Seance on St. Augustine St.” by Wild Pink (2018).
April 23, 2019 — 0
Some articles I found interesting this morning
April 23, 2019
Western Hemisphere Regional
- Alfredo Corchado, “‘This Is All One Big Lie.’ Why This Migrant Just Wishes He Could Go Home” (The Dallas Morning News, April 23, 2019).
The America they were told about was a lie. They were not welcomed with open arms
- Jean Guerrero, “The Border Realities Beneath the Fury” (The New York Times, April 23, 2019).
As President Trump renews threats to close the border outright, customs brokers tell me their partners — in cross-border supply chains for aerospace, medical devices and agriculture — are “panicked”
Brazil
- Andres Martinez-Fernandez, Ryan Berg, “Three Measures Brazil Should Take to Face Organized Crime” (American Enterprise Institute, Americas Quarterly, April 23, 2019).
The Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC), Brazil’s dominant criminal group with an estimated 30,000 members, controls key territory in major cities and large swaths in rural areas, as well as parts of Paraguay, Bolivia, and beyond
- Robert Muggah, “Brazil’s Murder Rate Finally Fell—and by a Lot” (Igarape Institute, Foreign Policy, April 23, 2019).
The drop in lethal violence started well before the election of the self-styled crime-fighter-in-chief, President Jair Bolsonaro, who was elected in October 2018. Despite his attempts to claim these successes as his own, there is little evidence that his administration has had anything to do with the drop
Central America Regional, Mexico
- Sonia Perez D., “Mexican Police Detain Hundreds of Central American Migrants” (Associated Press, April 23, 2019).
As migrants gathered under spots of shade in the burning heat outside the city of Pijijiapan, federal police and agents passed by in patrol trucks and vans and forcibly wrestled women, men and children into the vehicles
Colombia
- Luis Felipe Cruz Olivera, “La Sustitucion de Cultivos de Coca Es Mucho Mas Barata Que el Glifosato” (DeJusticia, El Espectador (Colombia), April 23, 2019).
¿Está el Gobierno dispuesto a gastar más de 8 billones de pesos anuales en una guerra contra las poblaciones cocaleras o mejor debería aumentar los 1,3 billones de pesos que se están destinando al programa de sustitución?
- Sebastian Forero Rueda, “Los Desafios para Acelerar la Reincorporacion de la Farc” (El Espectador (Colombia), April 23, 2019).
Básicamente, en todos los ETCR los predios están en arriendo y el Gobierno paga ese monto. Esa situación irá hasta agosto, cuando se deberá resolver si se compran los terrenos o si los excombatientes deben trasladarse
Colombia, Venezuela
- Dylan Baddour, “Inside the un’s First Tent Camp for Venezuelans Who Fled to Colombia” (VICE, April 23, 2019).
The $1.7 million facility opened March 8 with 60 family-sized tents and a lengthy waiting list
Colombia
- Javier Forero, “‘las Farc Nunca Estuvieron Derrotadas Militarmente’: Ariel Avila” (El Tiempo (Colombia), April 23, 2019).
En su nuevo libro, el investigador derrumba afirmaciones que, dice, son erróneas sobre la violencia
Cuba
- “Editorial: Cuba Is a Problem That Trump Is Making Worse” (Bloomberg, April 23, 2019).
A full resumption of normal ties between the U.S. and Cuba should indeed require the victims of expropriation to be compensated. A process that could have yielded this result was underway thanks to the warming of relations under President Obama
Nicaragua
- Carlos Dada, “Nicaragua Vive una Normalidad Muy Extrana” (El Faro (El Salvador), April 23, 2019).
A un año del inicio de las protestas contra el gobierno de Daniel Ortega, las autoridades sandinistas se esfuerzan por presentar un país al que ha vuelto la calma y la normalidad. La realidad es muy distinta
- Judith Flores, “Sanciones Muestran la Red de Operacion de Daniel Ortega” (La Prensa (Nicaragua), April 23, 2019).
El Gobierno de Estados Unidos ha designado sanciones para siete altos funcionarios del régimen de Daniel Ortega, y al Bancorp, relacionado con Albanisa, que administra los millonarios fondos del acuerdo petrolero con Venezuela
Venezuela
- Tom Phillips, “‘Operation Blackout Is Underway’: Russia Blames Us for Venezuela Power Crisis” (The Guardian (Uk), April 23, 2019).
The Russian report was approvingly reproduced by Telesur, Maduro’s main international propaganda outlet
April 23, 2019 — 0
The day ahead: April 23, 2019
I’ll be around, but writing, in the afternoon. (How to contact me)
I’ve got a call with an NGO colleague, a dentist appointment, and a mid-day interview on CNN Español to talk about border militias. Then about four hours at my desk this afternoon, where I hope to work on one of four different writing projects, and hopefully finish one today.
April 22, 2019 — 0
The best song I washed dishes to tonight
“Lost Faith” by Bob Mould (2019).
April 22, 2019 — 0
Some articles I found interesting this morning
April 22, 2019
Western Hemisphere Regional
- Angela Kocherga, “Most of Trump ‘Emergency’ Wall Goes Through Nm” (The Albuquerque Journal, April 22, 2019).
The Trump administration’s declaration calls for $1 billion being diverted from military projects to build 57 miles of bollard barriers, with 46 of those miles in New Mexico’s Doña Ana and Luna counties
- Simon Romero, “f.b.i. Arrests Leader of Right-Wing Militia That Detained Migrants in New Mexico” (The New York Times, April 22, 2019).
Mr. Hopkins was arrested on charges of firearms possession by a felon
- Alex Horton, “Trump Soured Relations in Latin America. China and Russia Have Welcomed the Chaos.” (The Washington Post, April 22, 2019).
The Trump administration’s approach to Latin America is a house of mirrors and contradictions as it emphasizes relations mainly through migration and crime
Colombia
- Jose David Escobar Moreno, Leonardo Botero Fernandez, “Desmonte de los Sucesores del Paramilitarismo, Gran Deuda de la Fiscalia” (El Espectador (Colombia), April 22, 2019).
El Acuerdo de Paz creó una unidad especial para erradicar los grupos sucesores de los paramilitares. Casi dos años después de su creación no parece haber avances ni resultados contundentes
- “ee.uu y Colombia: Con Amigos Asi…” (Semana (Colombia), April 22, 2019).
La injerencia del Tío Sam está comenzando a preocupar a algunos y a incomodar a otros. Desde hace mucho tiempo no había tantas decisiones tan estructurales bajo la lupa de Estados Unidos
Guatemala
- Perla Trevizo, “Passports to the American Dream: Mounting Debt, Few Opportunities Keep Guatemalans Coming” (The Arizona Daily Star, April 22, 2019).
Leaving for the United States is seen as a last choice, propelled by a cycle of debt that only fuels more migration. And while it’s too soon to predict the long-term impact of family migration, some of these villages are losing their future
- Kevin Sieff, “The Stay Here Center” (The Washington Post, April 22, 2019).
As migration from Central America surges, a school funded by the U.S. government in a Guatemalan village aims to give youth the job skills to be successful in their own country. Will it keep them from heading north?
El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras
- Marcos Aleman, Maria Verza, “How Does a Central American Migrant Caravan Form?” (Associated Press, The San Francisco Chronicle, April 22, 2019).
The most recent caravan left the bus station in San Pedro Sula in northern Honduras on April 10, and journalists from The Associated Press have been following various online migrant chats since late March
Central America Regional, Mexico
- Sonia Perez D., “Frustration Grows Among Migrants in Mexico as Support Fades” (Associated Press, Associated Press, April 22, 2019).
The outpouring of aid that once greeted Central American migrants as they trekked in caravans through southern Mexico has been drying up
Mexico
- Kirk Semple, Paulina Villegas, “Mexican Town Once Welcomed Migrants. Now It Blames Mexico’s President for Them.” (The New York Times, April 22, 2019).
The towns here in the southern Mexican state of Chiapas have long been a common stop on the migratory route for people heading north. But something began to change last October with the arrival of thousands of migrants traveling en masse
- “Arranque de 2019, el Mas Violento del Que Haya Registro: 8,493 Personas Asesinadas” (Animal Politico (Mexico), April 22, 2019).
En enero, febrero y marzo de 2019 fueron asesinadas 8,493 personas en México, se trata del primer trimestre más violento del que haya registro (un 9 % arriba del arranque de 2018 que fue récord en su momento)
Nicaragua
- Yader Luna / Maynor Salazar, “Carazo, Masaya, Managua: La Resistencia a un Ano de la Rebelion” (Confidencial (Nicaragua), April 22, 2019).
En semanas recientes, varias casas de Diriamba han amanecido con pintas en las que se lee: “¡Plomo!”, “¡Te estamos esperando!”, “¡Aquí vive un golpista!”
- Javier Lafuente, ““No Hay Libertad para Que Yo Diga Algo, en Nicaragua Estamos en una Dictadura”” (El Pais (Spain), April 22, 2019).
El poeta y sacerdote nicaragüense Ernesto Cardenal, recuperado tras 16 días hospitalizado con 94 años, celebra la figura del papa Francisco y lamenta la deriva de Ortega
Peru
- Mario Vargas Llosa, “Alan Garcia” (El Pais (Spain), April 22, 2019).
¿Fue un político honesto, comparable a un José Luis Bustamante y Rivero o a Fernando Belaúnde Terry, dos presidentes que salieron de Palacio de Gobierno más pobres de lo que entraron? Yo creo sinceramente que no
Venezuela
- Sebastiana Barraez, “Testimonio del Horror: Habla un Torturado en una Carcel Militar Chavista” (Infobae, April 22, 2019).
Infobae conversó con un oficial del ejército que estuvo preso 45 días en la Dirección General de Contrainteligencia Militar de Caracas
- Steven Lemongello, “Florida’s U.S. Senators Rattle Sabers Over Military Intervention in Venezuela” (The Orlando Sentinel, April 22, 2019).
Scott has spoken with President Trump, National Security Advisor John Bolton and Vice President Mike Pence about military options
April 22, 2019 — 0
The day ahead: April 22, 2019
I’ll be reachable for much of the afternoon. (How to contact me)
This morning I’m guest-teaching a class at American University and participating in WOLA’s weekly staff meeting. Other than a couple of phone calls in the early afternoon, I plan to be in the office writing; I now have a few active projects running and would like to finish one.
April 21, 2019 — 0
The best song I washed dishes to tonight
“Bitter Medicine” by Tanuchikan (2018).
April 21, 2019 — 0
Latin America-related events in Washington this week
Thursday, April 25
- 8:30–10:30 at the Notre Dame University Keogh School: Venezuela: Humanitarian Crisis and Struggle for Democracy (RSVP required).
- 9:00 at the Atlantic Council: Venezuela After Maduro: A Vision for the Country’s Future (RSVP required).
Friday, April 26
- 8:30–10:30 at the Inter-American Dialogue: Institutions for Productivity: Towards a Better Business Environment in Latin America (RSVP required).
- 9:00-10:30 at the Council of the Americas: Beyond Silk and Silver: China’s New Road in the Americas (RSVP required).
April 20, 2019 — 0
The trashing of a once useful State Department report
Every March, the State Department publishes an annual report, required by law, providing a global survey of what countries around the world are doing to reduce supply and demand for illicit drugs. The International Narcotics Control Strategy Report (INCSR) is a bit of a drug-war relic, but it contains a lot of information unavailable elsewhere, such as how much drugs countries seized, and what U.S. aid to their counter-drug forces looks like.
The INCSR gets rewritten every year. While a lot of the same phrasing reappears, you can tell a lot about the U.S. government’s posture by looking at what has changed. A prime example is the report’s discussion of the growth in Colombia’s coca crop, which the U.S. government estimates as increasing from 80,500 hectares in 2013 to 209,000 hectares in 2017.
This paragraph, which appears each year, has undergone a radical metamorphosis from the Obama to the Trump administrations. Once a useful if partial analysis of the phenomenon, it is now hot garbage.
Several factors contributed to the overall surge in coca cultivation in Colombia in 2014. First, widespread reporting indicates that FARC elements have been urging coca growers to plant more coca, purportedly motivated by the belief that Colombian government post-peace accord investment and subsidies will focus on regions with the greatest quantities of coca. Second, empirical evidence demonstrates that counter-eradication tactics have significantly reduced the effectiveness of coca eradication efforts. To hamper aerial eradication efforts coca growers: (1) shift fields to areas off limits to aerial eradication, including national parks and indigenous reserves; (2) plant smaller fields in areas where aerial eradication is permitted, to impede coca detection and aerial eradication; and (3) prune coca plants after being sprayed to prevent full absorption of the herbicide and save the plant for future harvests. To combat manual eradication, coca growers: (1) employ blockade techniques to prevent eradicators from accessing fields; (2) place improvised explosive devices (IEDs) around eradication operations to kill, injure, and demoralize eradicators and significantly slow eradication operations by requiring extensive counter-IED detection efforts; and (3) plant fields in remote areas, requiring increased effort to detect, access, and eradicate fields. Finally, Colombia’s manual eradication budget has declined by two-thirds since 2008, resulting in a 90 percent reduction in the number of manual eradicators in 2015 as compared to 2008. In mid-2015, however, the Colombian government announced a plan to dramatically increase the number of Colombian National Police (CNP) personnel devoted to manual eradication operations by about 100 percent to approximately 2,650, and to increase the number of manual eradicators by about 40 percent to approximately 1,050.
Here, State posits four reasons for the increase in coca-growing. (1) The peace accord, whose draft pointed to rewards for coca growers; (2) coca-growers’ resistance to aerial eradication; (3) coca-growers’ resistance to manual eradication; and (4) cuts to Colombia’s manual eradication budget.
As noted in a 2017 report, I would add a drop in the price of gold, which caused a big switch from illicit gold-mining to illicit coca-growing; a big weakening of the Colombian peso against the dollar, which made it look like coca’s farm-gate price was jumping; and declining Colombian spending on alternative development.
Several factors have contributed to the overall surge in coca cultivation in Colombia since 2014. First, widespread reporting indicates that FARC elements urged coca growers to plant more coca, purportedly motivated by the belief that the Colombian government’s post-peace accord investment and subsidies will focus on regions with the greatest quantities of coca. Second, the Colombian government reduced eradication operations in areas controlled by the FARC to lower the risk of armed conflict as the parties negotiated a final peace accord. Third, counter- eradication tactics employed by coca growers have significantly reduced the effectiveness of coca eradication efforts. To combat manual eradication, coca growers: (1) employ blockade techniques to prevent eradicators from accessing fields; (2) place improvised explosive devices (IEDs) around eradication operations to kill, injure, and demoralize eradicators and slow eradication operations; and (3) plant fields in areas less accessible to eradication efforts, including national parks, indigenous areas, and remote areas. Finally, Colombia’s manual eradication budget has declined by two-thirds since 2008, resulting in a 90 percent reduction in the number of manual eradicators in 2016 as compared to 2008.
In 2017 the “resistance to aerial eradication” argument goes away, which makes sense since the glyphosate-spraying program was suspended, due to health concerns, in October 2015. The recently signed peace accord gets blamed for a second phenomenon: the government soft-pedaling forced eradication to avoid disrupting the Havana dialogues. (I’ve talked to people in the Santos government who deny this, though the 2016 eradication figure, 18,000 hectares, was historically low.) The rest remains the same.
Several factors contributed to the surge in coca cultivation in Colombia since 2013, including the end of aerial spraying and indications that FARC elements urged farmers to plant coca, purportedly to take advantage of the Colombian government’s peace accord coca crop substitution program. Furthermore, counter-eradication tactics employed by coca growers have impeded the government’s manual eradication efforts, including blocking eradicators from accessing fields; placing improvised explosive devices in coca fields to kill, injure, and demoralize eradicators and slow eradication operations; and planting fields in inaccessible areas, including national parks, indigenous areas, and remote regions.
Colombia’s suspension of aerial fumigation gets blamed in this year’s report, even though the report two years earlier detailed several ways that coca-growers had acted to make spraying less effective. The peace accord is again blamed for creating a perverse incentive, but the report doesn’t repeat the charge that the Santos government abstained from eradication to avoid harming the negotiations. The “reduced eradication budget” argument disappears because Colombia ramped up manual eradication in 2017.
Several factors contributed to the surge in coca cultivation in Colombia since 2013, including: the end of aerial spray of glyphosate on coca; a crop substitution program that created perverse incentives for coca growers to grow more coca; and the failure of the FARC to comply with the illicit drug provisions of the peace agreement. Drug traffickers employ effective counter- eradication tactics such as protests and the use of improvised explosive devices in coca fields to kill, injure, and demoralize eradicators and to slow eradication operations.
This is the most contentious and poorly documented—we could say, “the Trumpiest”—edition of the report. It blames the peace accord’s entire crop substitution program for incentivizing coca-growing, even though the program caused the UN-verified voluntary eradication of 35,000 hectares of coca by the end of 2018. It claims that coca increased because the FARC cheated on its peace accord commitments: this is an explosive charge, but the report neglects to specify what commitments the FARC reneged on, or whether it is referring to all demobilized guerrillas or to the 10-20 percent who have retaken arms as “dissidents.”
Finally—and ominously, if you care about good analysis—it’s no longer “coca-growers” who take measures to resist manual eradication: it’s “drug traffickers.” At least 119,500 Colombian families live off the coca crop right now. For the State Department, these people are now drug traffickers. Language matters.
Over the course of the Trump administration, we’re seeing a relatively credible and careful report morph into a political document that we can no longer rely on as an accurate depiction of what is happening.
This change in the INCSR report’s language dovetails with President Trump’s and Ambassador Kevin Whitaker’s verbal attacks on the Colombian government this month for “not doing enough” about drugs. It raises the likelihood that, in September, President Trump will “decertify” Colombia as a partner in the drug war, placing Colombia on a small list of uncooperative countries that includes Venezuela and Bolivia.
That was once unthinkable because it would be so counter-productively stupid, given Colombia’s demonstrated willingness to do nearly everything the U.S. government asks on drug policy, trade policy, and Venezuela. But we live in counter-productively stupid times. At the rate we’re going, by next year this discussion of Colombia’s coca crop will probably just be 280 characters ending with “Sad!”
April 19, 2019 — 0
Some articles I found interesting this morning
April 19, 2019
Western Hemisphere Regional
- Manny Fernandez, “One of the Deadliest Places on the Southwest Border” (The New York Times, April 19, 2019).
Since January 2009, the bodies or skeletal remains of 642 migrants have been discovered in Brooks County
- Simon Romero, “Militia in New Mexico Detains Asylum Seekers at Gunpoint” (The New York Times, April 19, 2019).
Members of the group, which calls itself the United Constitutional Patriots, filmed several of their actions in recent days, including the detention this week of a group of about 200 migrants who had recently crossed the border
Brazil
- Gabriel Stargardter, “Brazil Murders Maintain Downward Path in First Three Months Under Bolsonaro – Data” (Reuters, Reuters, April 19, 2019).
In Rio de Janeiro state, which Bolsonaro represented as a federal congressman for nearly three decades, the number of people killed in confrontations with security officials rose 18 percent to 434 in the first three months of this year
Cuba
- William M. Leogrande, “Trump Declares Economic War on Cuba” (The Conversation, April 19, 2019).
The Trump administration has declared the most severe new sanctions against Cuba since President John F. Kennedy imposed an economic embargo banning all trade with the communist island in 1962
Mexico
- Delphine Schrank, “Migrant Camps Overflow as Mexico Cracks Down After Trump Threats” (Reuters, Reuters, April 19, 2019).
Amid pressure from Washington, Mexico is backpedaling on promises of better treatment for Central American migrants, leaving hundreds stranded in unsanitary camps near its southern border
Nicaragua
- Javier Bauluz, Maynor Salazar, Wilfredo Miranda Aburto, “350 Muertos, 760 Presos Politicos y 65,000 Exiliados: El Oscuro Saldo de un Ano de Crisis en Nicaragua” (Univision, April 19, 2019).
Tres nicaragüenses cuentan, desde distintas trincheras, cómo han vivido el horror
Peru
- Ryan Dube, “Former President’s Suicide Puts Peru Probes in Spotlight” (The Wall Street Journal, April 19, 2019).
Critics say prosecutors are abusing the use of preventive detention, a legal mechanism that allows suspects to be jailed for as long as three years without being charged as investigations are completed
Venezuela
- Marianna Parraga, “Venezuela Skirts U.S. Sanctions by Funneling Oil Sales via Russia” (Reuters, Reuters, April 19, 2019).
Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA has started passing invoices from its oil sales to Rosneft
- David Luhnow, “Message From a Venezuelan Opposition Leader: ‘Welcome to My Golden Cage’” (The Wall Street Journal, April 19, 2019).
In his first interview since fleeing arrest and taking refuge in the Chilean diplomatic compound in Caracas, the former deputy head of the National Assembly discusses his country’s autocratic turn
April 19, 2019 — 0
The day ahead: April 19, 2019
I’m off today. (How to contact me)
As the child of a mixed marriage with two religious traditions, it’s always nice when Passover and Easter coincide. Even better when it’s on a weekend. I’ve got family showing up this afternoon, and will not be available for work-related stuff today. Have a good holiday.
April 18, 2019 — 0
The best song I washed dishes to tonight
“Soñemos un Bosque” by Aterciopelados (2018).
April 18, 2019 — 0
Some articles I found interesting this morning
April 18, 2019
Western Hemisphere Regional
- Alicia A. Caldwell, “Yuma, Ariz., Declares State of Emergency Over Migrant Crisis” (The Wall Street Journal, April 18, 2019).
U.S. Border Patrol agents released nearly 1,300 migrants in Yuma, which has a population of about 100,000, in the past three weeks
- Dara Lind, “Attorney General Barr Just Handed Ice More Power to Keep Asylum Seekers in Detention” (Vox, April 18, 2019).
The ruling won’t address the heart of the current border crisis. Families make up a majority of people crossing into the US without papers
Bolivia
- Jason Lemon, “Bolivian Lawmakers Sent Letter to Donald Trump Asking Him to Intervene in Their Country’s Election” (Newsweek, April 18, 2019).
The group of 12 politicians asked Donald Trump to use Washington’s influence within the Organization of American States to prevent Bolivian President Evo Morales from running for another term
Brazil
- Oliver Stuenkel, “How Bolsonaro’s Rivalry With His Vice President Is Shaping Brazilian Politics” (Americas Quarterly, April 18, 2019).
President Jair Bolsonaro’s government is at war with itself, and the president is increasingly unable to control the factions close to him jockeying for influence
Colombia, Venezuela
- Venezuela Investigative Unit, “Guerrilla Groups Largest Employers at Colombia-Venezuela Border: Report” (InsightCrime, April 18, 2019).
The report explores how these recruits are funnelled into numerous lines of illegal work, including drug trafficking, micro-trafficking, fuel smuggling, illegal mining of gold, coltan and copper, or being employed as “gariteros”
Colombia
- ““Condenamos Este Acto Que No Quedara Impune”: Ivan Duque Sobre Asesinato de Samuel David” (Semana (Colombia), April 18, 2019).
El presidente rechazó el atentado que sufrió la familia del excombatiente de las extintas Farc y en el que perdió la vida el menor de 7 meses
- “Bancada Alternativa Rechaza “Intromision de Embajador de Ee. Uu. En Colombia”” (El Espectador (Colombia), April 18, 2019).
Los congresistas se refieren, sin duda, a la reunión que sostuvo el embajador estadounidense con senadores y representantes en días previos a la votación de las objeciones presidenciales a la ley estatutaria de la Jurisdicción Especial para la Paz
- “Security Council Press Statement on Colombia” (UN Security Council, Mision de la ONU en Colombia, April 18, 2019).
They agreed with the Secretary-General’s assessment that the peace process stands today at a critical juncture
- “Drogas y Venezuela, los Temas de la Reunion de Duque Con Congresistas de Estados Unidos” (El Espectador (Colombia), April 18, 2019).
El representante Kevin McCarthy anunció que estarán este jueves en la frontera colombo-venezolana
Cuba
- Karen Deyoung, “Trump Administration Announces New Measures Against Cuba” (The Washington Post, April 18, 2019).
U.S. citizens will now be allowed to sue any entity or person found to be “trafficking” in property that was expropriated from U.S. citizens after the 1959 revolution
- Nora Gamez Torres, “U.S. Restricts Travel, Remittances to Cuba as Part of a New Policy Under Trump” (The Miami Herald, April 18, 2019).
The re-tightened restrictions also could impact air travel because of a reduction of passengers
Guatemala
- “Guatemalan Presidential Candidate Charged With Conspiring to Import Cocaine Into the United States and Related Firearms Offense” (U.S. Department of Justice, April 18, 2019).
As alleged, Estrada and Gonzalez conspired to solicit Sinaloa Cartel money to finance a corrupt scheme to elect Estrada president of Guatemala
Colombia, Mexico
- Rafael Croda, “Denuncian Amenaza del Cartel de Sinaloa Contra Lideres Sociales Colombianos” (Proceso (Mexico), April 18, 2019).
Una organización campesina del sureño municipio colombiano de Piamonte denunció este miércoles que grupos armados, entre los cuales se menciona al Cártel de Sinaloa, amenazaron de muerte a varios dirigentes sociales de la zona
Mexico
- Sergio Ocampo Arista, “Advierten en Guerrero Que Derribaran Helicopteros Que Fumigan Amapola” (La Jornada (Mexico), April 18, 2019).
“No nos oponemos a eso, pero que lo hagan por tierra, y que además nos traigan proyectos productivos”, dijo uno de los comisarios
- Elena Reina, “La Frontera Sur de Mexico Es una Olla a Presion” (El Pais (Spain), April 18, 2019).
Miles de cubanos, congoleños, angoleños, haitianos y centroamericanos se acumulan en la frontera sur de México tras la orden del Gobierno de López Obrador de suspender en Tapachula los trámites migratorios para quienes se dirigen a EE UU
- Fernanda Echavarri, “For Some Asylum Seekers, Trump’s “Messed Up” Policies Have Made Settling in Mexico Their Only Option” (Mother Jones, April 18, 2019).
When their names were finally called, they were detained for three days in extremely cold cells and then released back into Tijuana as part of the Trump policy known as Remain in Mexico
- “Gente Nueva… El Ejercito de 5 Mil Hombres Que Surgio para Proteger a ‘el Chapo’ Guzman y Ahora Es un Brazo Armado del Cartel de Sinaloa” (Vanguardia (Saltillo Mexico), April 18, 2019).
Ambas organizaciones, “La Línea” y “Gente Nueva”, han protagonizado sanguinarios enfrentamientos que ha aumentado la violencia principalmente en Chihuahua
Peru
- Adam Taylor, Simeon Tegel, “Former Peruvian President Dead; Shot Himself as Police Attempted to Make Arrest” (The Washington Post, April 18, 2019).
Alan García, the former two-time president of Peru, died Wednesday morning after shooting himself as police attempted to arrest him in the wide-ranging corruption scandal that has implicated scores of leaders
- Andrea Zarate, Nicholas Casey, “Alan Garcia, Ex-President of Peru, Is Dead After Shooting Himself During Arrest” (The New York Times, April 18, 2019).
When the authorities arrived at the home of the former president, Alan García, with an arrest warrant, he locked himself into his bedroom, shot himself and was rushed to a hospital
Venezuela
- Jonah Shepp, “Venezuela’s Maduro Doesn’t Appear to Be Going Anywhere. What Now?” (New York, April 18, 2019).
The U.S. strategy of sanctions and isolation has yet to show any concrete wins — and in some ways, may even be backfiring
April 18, 2019 — 0
The day ahead: April 18, 2019
I should be reachable much of the day. (How to contact me)
I’m in the office, and will be finishing a big-picture article, for a Latin American publication, about current U.S. policy toward the region. Also adding new information to my database. I’m off tomorrow, Good Friday/Passover.
April 17, 2019 — 0
The best song I washed dishes to tonight
“Nonbeliever” by Lucy Dacus (2018).
April 17, 2019 — 0
Updated border and migration graphics are always here
I keep up-to-date a big PDF file full of stats and graphics about security and migration issues at the U.S.-Mexico border. Right now, it’s 2.2 megabytes and 36 pages long, and you can download it here or, more memorably, at the shortcut bit.ly/2019wolaborder.
It covers migration, Border Patrol staffing, the immigration court backlog, and security measures like terrorism, drugs, and so-called “spillover” violence (which doesn’t happen).
I just updated it again, with the March migration data that CBP released last week, while I was traveling at the border. Incidentally, I’ve screenshot every instance of that monthly report since it was first released in May 2014.
April 17, 2019 — 0
Some articles I found interesting this morning
April 17, 2019
Western Hemisphere Regional
- Katie Benner, Michael D. Shear, “In New Effort to Deter Migrants, Barr Withholds Bail to Asylum Seekers” (The New York Times, April 17, 2019).
Mr. Barr’s decision does not affect unaccompanied children or families who cross into the United States illegally. A longstanding settlement in a previous court case says that the government cannot detain children or families for longer than 20 days
- “House Judiciary Requests Information on Reported Pardon Offer for Cbp Head” (CNN, April 17, 2019).
After the President left the room, agents sought further advice from their leaders, who told them they were not giving them that direction and if they did what the President said they would take on personal liability. You have to follow the law, they were told
Colombia
- “Duque Pone a Prueba su Discurso de Mano Suave Con Bases de Farc” (La Silla Vacia (Colombia), April 17, 2019).
El 15 de agosto se acaba la figura que creó los espacios territoriales en los que viven casi 3.500 excombatientes
- “La Retaguardia Disidente” (Semana (Colombia), April 17, 2019).
Ni los jefes de las antiguas Farc se sienten seguros en los llanos, donde tuvieron su fortín. Al escenario, dominado por las disidencias de Gentil Duarte, se suman grupos posparamilitares y se asoman los elenos
- Nelson Ricardo Matta Colorado, “Las Huellas de Isis y Hezbola en Colombia” (El Colombiano (Medellin Colombia), April 17, 2019).
Esta conversación, registrada el 3 de febrero de 2018, es una de las pruebas que tiene la Fiscalía en el proceso penal por terrorismo y concierto para delinquir en contra del cubano
Colombia, Venezuela
- Ethan Bronner, Ezra Fieser, “Mercenaries, Spies, and Double Agents Gather en Masse in Bogota” (Bloomberg, April 17, 2019).
In the Casablanca of the Andes, seemingly everyone’s plotting—or counterplotting—for control of neighboring Venezuela
Colombia
- Ariel Ávila, Juan Gomez Tobon, “El Ejercito Antirrestitucion y la Guerra Contra los Reclamantes” (Fundacion Paz y Reconciliacion, El Espectador (Colombia), April 17, 2019).
El ataque a una comisión de la Unidad de Restitución de Tierras, el pasado 11 de abril, habría sido perpetrado por una organización cuyo objetivo es “exterminar” a todo campesino que reclame tierra o verdad
- “¿Que Esta Pasando Con la Seguridad?” (Semana (Colombia), April 17, 2019).
Resulta desconcertante que aun cuando los capturaron cometiendo el delito, el 95 por ciento de ellos quedaron en libertad, según cifras de la Fiscalía y la Policía
- Javier AlexÁnder MacÍas, “En Bojaya y el Atrato la Guerra No Cesa, se Agudiza” (El Colombiano (Medellin Colombia), April 17, 2019).
Leiner Palacios, líder social de ese territorio chocoano y sobreviviente de la masacre de Bojayá, aseguró a EL COLOMBIANO que puede presentarse no solo una masacre como la que el presenció, sino otras incluso más fuertes
Cuba
- Matt Spetalnick, Sarah Marsh, “In Major Shift, Trump to Allow Lawsuits Against Foreign Firms in Cuba” (Reuters, April 17, 2019).
The major policy shift, which will be announced on Wednesday, could expose U.S., European and Canadian companies to legal action and deal a blow to Cuba’s efforts to attract more foreign investment
Mexico
- Molly o’toole, “Internal Memos Say Trump Officials to Resume Forcing Asylum Seekers to Wait in Mexico” (The Los Angeles Times, April 17, 2019).
Under the policy, which then-Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen announced in December, authorities have forcibly returned more than 1,000 asylum seekers
- Arturo Angel, “Gobierno Si Propuso Que Estados Paguen por la Guardia Nacional; Ahora Buscan Dar Marcha Atras” (Animal Politico (Mexico), April 17, 2019).
La Presidencia informó a Animal Político que el gobierno buscará dar marcha atrás a su propia propuesta y que este requisito se elimine
- Jose Raul Linares, “Rodriguez Bucio Fue Critico “del Empleo Rutinario” del Ejercito en Funciones de Seguridad Publica” (Proceso (Mexico), April 17, 2019).
Rodríguez Bucio se pregunta: ¿cuáles fueron los principales problemas externos e internos que enfrentaron las Fuerzas Armadas Mexicanas (FAMs) con motivo de su participación en la estrategia mencionada?
- Mathieu Tourliere, “La Guardia Nacional Tambien Actuara Como “Migra”” (Proceso (Mexico), April 17, 2019).
El gobierno de Andrés Manuel López Obrador pretende dotar a la Guardia Nacional de facultades para revisar documentos y arrestar a migrantes que transiten por territorio mexicano y custodiar los centros de detención migratoria
- J. Jesus Esquivel, “Mexico-Eu: “Compromisos” Migratorios en Sigilo” (Proceso (Mexico), April 17, 2019).
Este semanario revela los pormenores de esos acuerdos, que son trastocados una y otra vez por la ira de Trump
- Jorge Ramos, “El Presidente No Es el Jefe de los Periodistas” (The New York Times, April 17, 2019).
López Obrador ha utilizado sistemáticamente ese espacio para desacreditar a reporteros, columnistas y a medios de comunicación que lo critican
Nicaragua
- , Toby Stirling Hill, “Nicaragua: One Year After Protests Erupt, Ortega Clings to Power” (The Guardian (Uk), April 17, 2019).
Opposition calls for a return to the streets as talks between government and civil society leaders stall
Venezuela
- Karen Deyoung, Mary Beth Sheridan, “Venezuela’s Military, Despite U.S. Expectations, Has Not Turned on Maduro” (The Washington Post, April 17, 2019).
Some express anger at what they see as ineffectual U.S. bluster and are calling colleagues still inside, telling them to stay put
Colombia, Honduras, Venezuela
- Diana Castrillon, Natalie Gallon, Nick Paton Walsh, “Corruption in Venezuela Has Created a Cocaine Superhighway to the Us” (CNN, April 17, 2019).
US and other regional officials say it’s Venezuela’s own military and political elite who are facilitating the passage of drugs in and out of the country on hundreds of tiny, unmarked planes
Venezuela
- Ana Vanessa Herrero, Anatoly Kurmanaev, “After Years of Denial, Venezuela’s President Allows Aid to Enter” (The New York Times, April 17, 2019).
After denying for years that Venezuelans were suffering a humanitarian crisis, the government allowed the Red Cross to send in 24 tons of medical equipment
- Barbara Starr, Ryan Browne, Zachary Cohen, “Pentagon Developing Military Options to Deter Russian, Chinese Influence in Venezuela” (CNN, April 17, 2019).
Several Pentagon officials continue to say there is no appetite at the Department of Defense for using US military force against the Venezuelan regime to try to force it from power
April 17, 2019 — 0
The day ahead: April 17, 2019
I should be reachable much of the day. (How to contact me)
Holy week is setting in, with Congress out of session and much of Latin America on vacation. Other than a long-ish phone interview with a reporter, I’m going to be in the office all day, catching up on tasks left undone because of last week’s travels, including updating my security database and our border statistics.
April 16, 2019 — 0
The best song I washed dishes to tonight
“I Will Be Waiting” by Let’s Eat Grandma (2018).