Adam Isacson

Defense, security, borders, migration, and human rights in Latin America and the United States. May not reflect my employer’s consensus view.

Archives

September 2020

Some articles I found interesting this morning

Gustavo Torrijos photo at El Espectador (Colombia). Caption: “Después del espectáculo deplorable que han dado los miembros de la Policía en estos días, ¿no se tomarán medidas más allá de un ofrecimiento de disculpas?”

(Even more here)

September 14, 2020

Western Hemisphere Regional

El papel protagónico de los uniformados levanta muchas suspicacias por las consecuencias a futuro que pueda tener haberles otorgado tanto poder

Colombia

La accidentada historia contemporánea de Colombia es también la de la Policía, que no ha estado ausente en los avances y retrocesos del Estado, pero continúa en contravía con los ciudadanos por el uso desmesurado de la fuerza

Alto Comisionado para la Paz revela evidencia de plan para trasladar el conflicto a lo urbano

The United Nations has documented at least 33 massacres this year, up from 11 in all of 2017, the year after the accord was signed

Ni siquiera durante el Paro Nacional del 2019, en el que murieron cuatro personas, las protestas desencadenaron tanta violencia

Después del espectáculo deplorable que han dado los miembros de la Policía en estos días, ¿no se tomarán medidas más allá de un ofrecimiento de disculpas?

Lo que se vino después, el otro resultado, fue sin duda mucho peor, de una brutalidad policial llevada irracionalmente a su punto más abyecto

Al parecer, es la misma organización conocida como La Mafia, pero cambió su nombre para desligarse de varios crímenes contra líderes sociales

El Salvador, Nicaragua

Abogada internacional que litigó casos de masacre de los jesuitas y genocidio contra Ríos Montt: “El proceso es lento, pero viene, y ahí estaremos”

El Salvador

A former Salvadoran army colonel who served as a government security minister has been sentenced to 133 years in prison after being found guilty of the murder of five Spanish Jesuits

Guatemala

El periodista Sonny Figueroa fue detenido la noche de este viernes 11 de septiembre por agentes de la Policía Nacional Civil (PNC) y trasladado a Torre de Tribunales, donde guarda prisión

Honduras

Some Honduran migrants say the destruction of social protections that drove them out occurred under his watch, even as the Obama administration aided him and Trump tightened the American embrace

Mexico

Mujeres que fueron desalojadas durante la madrugada de la Comisión de Derechos Humanos del Estado de México (CODHEM) en Ecatepec denunciaron que algunas fueron brutalmente golpeadas y están heridas, sin que ninguna autoridad del Estado se haga responsable

Entre las víctimas hay dos personas muertas y un joven que perdió el ojo derecho. La Sedena ha negociado directamente con algunos el pago de “indemnizaciones”

Los pobladores de este municipio que viven en la frontera con el de Chenalhó denuncian que presuntos grupos paramilitares los mantienen bajo ataque

Unrest has simmered for months over U.S. demands that Mexico pay off a shortfall of more than 100 billion gallons by Oct. 24 to meet its five-year water delivery quota

Paraguay

The two developments have suddenly raised the stakes of a yearslong conflict between the Paraguayan government and the Paraguayan People’s Army, a tiny guerrilla movement

Peru

Merino no tardó en ir al grano. Indicó a Cerdán que, “en el marco de la Constitución” se iba a llevar a cabo un proceso que podría terminar con la vacancia del presidente de la República y su reemplazo por el propio Merino

Roberto Carlos Pacheco Villanueva, hijo del conocido ambientalista Demetrio Pacheco, fue asesinado en su concesión forestal presuntamente por invasores de terrenos relacionados a la minería ilegal

El líder del Congreso, el opositor Manuel Merino de Lama, que asumiría la Presidencia si prospera el juicio político, contactó a altos mandos militares

A country with the world’s highest death toll per capita from the coronavirus is now also in political crisis, as lawmakers seek to oust President Martín Vizcarra over allegations of obstruction of justice

Peruvian service members use a strategy of siege and harassment against remnants of the Shining Path in the VRAEM, which has led to numerous desertions

U.S.-Mexico Border

The arrest was the first time protesters in Arizona stopped contractors from building the wall

A camp of asylum seekers along the Rio Grande in Matamoros has seen a significant reduction in population over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, with aid workers and camp residents counting just over 650 residents

At least 8,800 migrant children who arrived at the southern border without their parents have been swiftly expelled from the country and denied U.S. refuge during the pandemic under an emergency policy, the Trump administration told a federal court

Venezuela

Sin la represión abierta o solapada, a través de mecanismos de terror desplegados, y sin el miedo inducido en una población mayoritariamente opuesta al régimen, no sería posible que Maduro estuviese todavía en el poder

La mayoría de las víctimas fueron jóvenes pobres, entre 18 y 30 años de edad

Outlets close to the ruling Socialist Party identified the detainee as a former marine, John Heath Mattew, and said he was arrested on Thursday with three other people

The day ahead: September 14, 2020

I should be reachable in the afternoon. (How to contact me)

I’m in internal meetings all morning, but at my desk this afternoon. Last week I had a couple of events and a few writing deadlines; this week is not as hectic, but my communications inboxes are bursting. I’ll be spending much of the day getting back to people.

Some articles I found interesting on Thursday and Friday

Mauricio Alvarado photo at El Espectador (Colombia). Caption: “Daños tras las Protestas por muerte de Javier Ordoñez, CAI del barrio La Soledad (foto de referencia).”

(Catching up from a busier-than-normal couple of days.)

(Even more here)

September 11, 2020

Western Hemisphere Regional

Colombia no es el único país de la región que sufre por la brutalidad de las fuerzas del orden. México, Brasil, Chile y Argentina también sufren por lo mismo

Trump’s strategy to win over Florida Latinos is portraying Biden as the second coming of Fidel Castro

Argentina, Western Hemisphere Regional

Argentina ha asumido la derrota. A dos días de la elección de un nuevo presidente para el Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo (BID), el Gobierno de Alberto Fernández ha decidido que no tendrá candidato

Bolivia

Charges Against Evo Morales, Others Appear Politically Motivated

Colombia

Mientras la FARC denuncia que el plazo que fijó el Gobierno para la entrega total de los bienes es inalcanzable por la situación de inseguridad en las regiones, la pandemia y los asuntos jurídicos por resolver, el Gobierno dice que el cronograma se puede cumplir si hay voluntad

Mientras tanto, un juzgado de instrucción de la jurisdicción penal militar también lleva una investigación aparte

No sólo amenazan el derecho a la protesta, sino que representan un riesgo al derecho a la vida, la integridad, el debido proceso, la libertad de expresión

Diez muertos y más de 200 heridos, 66 por armas de fuego, en los disturbios tras la muerte de Javier Ordóñez por la policía

Lo que ellos hacen no sólo tiene efectos inmediatos en la protesta, sino que es importante, además, porque incide en la polarización en la que lleva años el país

Muertes de Dilan Cruz y Anderson Arboleda; bombardeo a menores en Caquetá; perfilamientos y seguimientos a líderes políticos, periodistas y activistas, estos son algunos de los casos que hoy abren el debate

Así es que los delitos de los que son acusados los agentes se investigan y sancionan en la justicia militar, pese a que en la Constitución y en el Código Penal la policía está configurada como un ente civil

La muerte de Javier Ordóñez y siete personas en protestas reavivaron el debate sobre las reformas de la policía en Colombia, un país que no logra superar el conflicto armado

Aunque todavía falta establecer con precisión de dónde vinieron las balas, varios testimonios y videos publicados en medios y redes sociales apuntan a que la Policía disparó a los manifestantes en una reacción desproporcionada

Guyana

The South American country, already deeply split by a presidential election and an oil windfall, is tested again as three teenagers are slain

Mexico

La guerra por el agua en Chihuahua inició con la extracción en la presa El Granero entre octubre de 2019 y enero de 2020, bajo el argumento del pago de 436 millones de metros cúbicos que debe hacer México a Estados Unidos por el Tratado Internacional

Padres de familia de los jóvenes víctimas del ataque armado de la colonia Antonio Barona en Cuernavaca que dejó ocho muertos y 14 heridos, exigieron a las autoridades estatales dejar de criminalizar a sus hijos y dar una disculpa pública

Barr said the coronavirus pandemic had acted as a brake on some operations against Mexican cartels, especially in terms of plans for busting clandestine methamphetamine

Peru

El ministro de Defensa desestimó el llamado a las FF. AA. por parte de titular del Congreso, Manuel Merino, y exigió respeto hacia la institución

En medio de la peor crisis sanitaria de la historia de Perú a causa del coronavirus, seis partidos políticos propusieron el jueves destituir al Presidente, Martín Vizcarra, por “faltar a la verdad y obstruir” las investigaciones por la contratación de un conocido suyo

Tres audios y la mención a una posible vacancia del primer mandatario Martín Vizcarra sacudieron la actual escena política peruana

U.S.-Mexico Border

Katie Waldman said a report saying only six suspected terrorists were caught at the border was wrong. A whistleblower now says DHS wanted to inflate the total

Venezuela

Turnout was low for events to honor health-care workers, seen as a risky gambit for a divided opposition

September 10, 2020

Western Hemisphere Regional

In the first four months of new looser federal rules for exporting firearms, as the coronavirus battered the world, US weapons companies dramatically increased the global export of military rifles and handguns compared to the same period last year

ICE or its contractors failed to test detainees exposed to the virus – or turned down vital testing assistance

Bolivia

Given the present mayhem, Mr. Arce, the only socialist running, is the best choice. Political commentators have argued that liberal democracy is the only acceptable political solution for Bolivia. But there are three reasons socialism should return to the country

Colombia

El balance, según la propia Policía, es de tres muertos en Bogotá y dos en Soacha, 80 heridos (50 civiles y 30 policías) y 17 CAI incendiados

Todos eran jóvenes y según el reporte de la Alcaldía murieron por el uso indiscriminado de armas de fuego por parte de la Policía de Bogotá

El Salvador

We are alarmed by recent attacks against El Faro, one of Central America’s top independent, investigative outlets

Mexico

Otros reporteros entrevistados, quienes pidieron anonimato por motivos de seguridad, cuentan que Julio no tenía enemigos declarados. Aunque eso, desde luego, no es garantía en un estado como Veracruz

A bilateral agreement from 1944 requires Mexico to divert waters to the US as Mexican regions experience drought

The day ahead: September 11, 2020

I’ve been hosting an event, and will be hard to reach for the rest of the day. (How to contact me)

I usually post this first thing in the morning, but it’s an unusual day (see below).

Despite the troubling subject matter, I’m delighted with the discussion we just hosted on civil-military relations in Latin America. The panelists were brilliant.

Now that this, last evening’s lecture, and a few other writing deadlines are in the past, I plan to move more slowly for the rest of the day. And for a good reason: this, September 11, 2020, is my 50th birthday.

The family and I will be masking up and going to a fancy restaurant later, and in the meantime I want to catch up on the news (you’ll notice I haven’t posted any links since Wednesday) and my backlog of e-mail and whatsapps.

The day ahead: September 10, 2020

I’m sort of available today, but may not respond immediately. (How to contact me)

I’m giving a lecture this evening (and having lunch with faculty mid-day) virtually at Dickinson College—the original plan was to travel to Carlisle, Pennsylvania to do this last March, but the event was an early casualty of COVID-19. My talk will be livestreamed.

Right now, my notes and slides are a mess and I need to take some time to tighten them up. So while I’ve got an eye on the ongoing disturbances over police abuses in Bogotá, I may not respond immediately to messages.

We’re hosting an event tomorrow about civil-military relations in Latin America (it will be in Spanish). RSVP today and join us at 11:00AM U.S. eastern time.

Some articles I found interesting this morning

Photo from Animal Político (Mexico).

(Even more here)

September 9, 2020

Western Hemisphere Regional

The pandemic seems to be producing even greater polarization and political fragmentation, potentially opening the door further to outsiders and increased tensions between executive and legislative branches

Argentina, Paraguay

Las familias de las niñas denunciaron que se trató de una masacre llevada a cabo por esta unidad de las Fuerzas Armadas

Colombia

Miguel Ceballos, Alto Comisionado para la Paz, explicó que los asesinatos y masacres que se han producido en distintas partes del territorio nacional, son producto de “algo que no funcionó después de la firma del acuerdo”

Londono has long denied the FARC had a policy of forced recruitment or allowed sexual abuse, but acknowledged some fighters may have committed misconduct

Fumigar, condenar y tratar como mafioso al cultivador de hoja de coca es un grave error con alto costo social

Al menos 500 organizaciones sociales presentan hoy un detallado informe sobre los dos años del mandato del presidente Iván Duque. No rebajan la gestión de desgobierno y alegan que se dispararon el autoritarismo y la guerra

El Gobierno de Iván Duque asegura que la causa de lo que llama “homicidios colectivos” está en el narcotráfico, mientras que expertos en conflicto refutan que esa no es la única razón

Honduras

Por la presunta compra irregular de ventiladores mecánicos por parte del Hospital Militar

Se contabilizan al menos 99 víctimas en homicidios múltiples durante el confinamiento. Según expertos, las masacres han disminuido debido al estado de sitio, pero de marzo a agosto hay un repunte

Mexico

El 5 de septiembre se cumplió un año de la muerte de ocho personas, que las autoridades estatales presentaron como un enfrentamiento contra integrantes del crimen organizado pero que familias de las víctimas y la ONG que les acompaña califican de “montaje”

Los colectivos y feministas que tomaron las instalaciones exigen ser escuchadas por las autoridades, a quienes acusan de no brindar una reparación del daño

De acuerdo con un informe de Intersecta, la militarización de la seguridad pública del país ha contribuido a la actual crisis de violencia contra las mujeres en México, donde al menos 10 son asesinadas cada día

El proyecto oficial propone ligeras reducciones en los subsidios destinados a la seguridad pública en los estados y municipios, así como en el combate al secuestro y en inteligencia

La Guardia Nacional informó en redes sociales que el enfrentamiento ocurrió mientras los elementos trasladaban a tres personas detenidas por tener granadas de gas lacrimógeno

Seizure data from 2016 and 2017 indicated that the flow of firearms at the US-Mexico border “appears to occur in smaller individual batches than the general global pattern.”

The administration of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador designated more than $4 million from the Mexico Fund last year to immigration containment purposes

Mexico, Western Hemisphere Regional

Gracias a una decisión insólita del gobierno de México, con casi total seguridad será electo el candidato norteamericano Mauricio Claver-Carone

The day ahead: September 9, 2020

I’ll be difficult to contact today. (How to contact me)

I’m on a writing deadline this morning, then starting in the late morning I have two internal planning meetings, two discussions with groups of students, and a conversation with State Department personnel. I also need to finish preparing a lecture I’m giving tomorrow evening and an event we’re hosting Friday, so it’s going to be a long day.

Latin America-related online events I know of this week

Tuesday, September 8

Wednesday, September 9

Thursday, September 10

  • 10:00-2:30 at thedialogue.org: 24th Annual CAF Conference (RSVP required).

Friday, September 11

  • 10:00-12:45 at thedialogue.org: 24th Annual CAF Conference (RSVP required).
  • 11:00 at wola.org: Las relaciones cívico-militares en América Latina después de seis meses de pandemia (RSVP required).

Several panels throughout the week

  • At vfororegional.org: V Foro Regional sobre Empresas y Derechos Humanos (RSVP required).

Some articles I found interesting this morning

Jaime Pérez photo at El Colombiano (Medellín, Colombia). Caption: “En Isla Amargura no hay ningún habitante. Todos salieron el pasado 2 de septiembre.”

(Even more here)

September 8, 2020

Western Hemisphere Regional

As the Inter-American Development Bank prepares to help Latin America rebuild post-COVID, will an American take over, breaking one of its core traditions?

Argentina

Organismos de derechos humanos habían enviado una carta al ministro de Defensa, Agustín Rossi en la que sostenían que “los homenajeados no fueron héroes”

Bolivia

One former EU official in the country confidentially told us that this represents a “significant setback”. Yet the EU has been helping to make this happen

Chile, Venezuela

Este domingo se detectó un segundo grupo de 17 extranjeros, entre ellos 4 menores y una mujer embarazada de 7 meses, quienes indicaron que fueron abandonados en pleno ingreso al país por los guías, los que retornaron a Perú

Colombia

Los programas previstos para la implementación del Acuerdo de Paz recibieron una fracción de la plata que pidió el consejero de Paz Emilio Archila, y aún menos de la prevista cuando se firmó el tratado con las Farc

Están en zona de disputa entre el ELN y el frente “Oliver Sinisterra”

El Instituto de Estudios para el Desarrollo y la Paz (Indepaz) confirmó que los hechos se presentaron en Zaragoza (Antioquia) y en Simití (Bolívar)

En Isla Amargura no hay ningún habitante. Todos salieron el pasado 2 de septiembre

Costa Rica, Nicaragua

Over three quarters of the refugees and asylum seekers are experiencing hunger, the UNHCR reports. Some 7% have returned to Nicaragua, despite the risk

Haiti, Panama

The closure left nearly 2,000 migrants from Haiti and a handful of African and Asian countries stuck in camps in the jungle along Panama’s northern and southern borders

Honduras

El sacerdote jesuita Ismael Moreno denunció que un grupo de jóvenes en El Progreso fue atacado y perseguido por miembros de la Policía Nacional mientras pintaban el reclamo popular y al parecer subversivo para el gobierno: “¿Dónde está el dinero?”

Mexico

Los datos de la SEDENA muestran que su violencia en los enfrentamientos está incrementando otra vez, alcanzando o incluso rebasando a los niveles vistos en años de Calderón

Colectivas de mujeres que tomaron una sede de la Comisión Nacional de los Derechos Humanos (CNDH) aseguraron que no entregarán las oficinas y pidieron la renuncia de su titular, Rosario Piedra Ibarra

U.S.-Mexico Border

Hundreds of asylum-seekers are still holding on in a tent camp across the river from Brownsville. Poor health conditions and the threat of kidnappings and violence are with them always

Venezuela

El excandidato presidencial analiza el nuevo escenario de la política venezolana tras abrirse a participar en las elecciones parlamentarias de final de año

Is it Mexico or Colombia?

During the late 2000s, when the Bush administration was rolling out the “Mérida Initiative” aid package to support Mexican President Felipe Calderón’s fight against cartels, secuirty analysts fretted about the “Colombianization” of Mexico. They meant that the country could be consumed by generalized violence so severe that it impacts political stability and economic viability.

Despite—or perhaps because of—the military-first strategy it pursued against organized crime, Mexico has long since “Colombianized.” In 2019 Mexico’s homicide rate was greater than Colombia’s.

Colombia’s homicide rate wasn’t much lower, though—and even as its cities remain relatively calm amid COVID-19 lockdown, the countryside is aflame with about 51 massacres so far in 2020. Still, Colombia’s violence is different than it was a decade ago. The FARC are gone. So are right-wing paramilitary groups with a national political agenda. Today’s armed groups are scattered FARC dissidents, the ELN, the Gulf Clan organized crime network, and several regional organized crime splinter groups.

Different groups are active in different regions. Many didn’t exist a year or two ago. Many won’t exist a year or two from now. They fight for control of the drug trade, which still probably provides the largest illicit income stream. But they also want to control territory to benefit from illegal mining, land theft, human trafficking, extortion, and other activities. Almost none can lay claim to a political program. Almost all benefit from relationships with corrupt local government officials, including security-force units.

I was referring to Colombia in that last paragraph. But re-read it and you’ll find that it also describes Mexico. It can describe the situation in Nariño, Cauca, Chocó, the Bajo Cauca, or Catatumbo. But it’s also Guanajuato, Michoacán, Guerrero, or Tamaulipas.

The following seven excerpts come from two recent reports: one about Mexico, and one about Colombia. The first is the annual Organized Crime and Violence report that the Justice in Mexico program at the University of San Diego published on July 30. The second is a 3,400-word overview of Colombia’s security situation that the investigative website La Silla Vacía published on August 24.

I’ve removed any information from each excerpt that might identify the country it describes (like names of places, people, drugs, or armed groups). Everything else is intact.

Can you guess which country each excerpt is referring to? Answers are at the bottom.

1. Fragmentation into smaller, more predatory groups

Counter-drug efforts and conflicts with rival organizations have disrupted the leadership structures of some major groups. This has contributed to the splintering of groups into smaller, more regionally-focused operations. Because of their more localized scale, such organizations tend to have less capability to develop trans-national criminal enterprises, like international drug trafficking operations. As a result, in addition to small-scale drug dealing, they are also more inclined to engage in predatory crimes, such as kidnapping, extortion, robbery, and similar crimes, which involve illicitly extracting revenue from individuals or businesses. Compared to major drug trafficking operations, many of these crimes have relatively low “barriers to entry” and often require less state protection. However, because of their predatory nature, the fragmentation of organized crime has contributed to more widespread victimization and public outrage.

2. Narcotrafficking is one of many illicit activities

“In some zones, narcotrafficking is the most important problem, but it’s not the only factor. In fact, for groups like [name], [name], and [name], the fight is over territorial control and all that that contains. Control over populations, imposition of rules, ‘taxes’ as they call it—extortion of the people—of all they can collect from them, and even access to local political power through intimidation,” said [a non-governmental expert].

3. Government strategies have fed fragmentation

U.S. and [country] counter-drug efforts targeting major drug trafficking organizations—including efforts to eradicate production, interdict illicit goods in transit, and disrupt organized crime leadership structures—contributed to fragmentation and further infighting among criminal organizations. In particular, the use of leadership disruption, or “kingpin” removal has greatly increased the internal fragmentation and competition among criminal organizations, and accordingly has been seen as a major contributor to violence.

4. Substituting for the state during the COVID-19 outbreak

It seems likely that the combined supply-chain disruptions, increased law enforcement scrutiny, and surges in the market have led to increased violent competition among traffickers vying to hold onto or expand their market share in uncertain times. Such organizations have also been making obvious attempts to gain public visibility and support, even showing up the government by distributing aid packages of food and supplies to help poor families amid the pandemic.

5. The military agrees that the strategy can’t just be military

The military strategy without state presence isn’t enough, as Army General [name], who is in charge of [unit], recognizes. “The solution isn’t soldiers in the territory, the solution is comprehensive, committing different sectors in the region to eliminate the narcotrafficking that causes violence. Where there’s drugs there’s death, blood, and pain. We provide the military component on the ground to try to stabilize the regions, to try to keep the armed groups from carrying out these kind of bloody interventions,’ he said. This comprehensive approach implies social investment and “the economic stabilization of the regions,” said the officer.

6. Local corruption helps groups thrive

Recent surges in violence are a function of the complex interactions among criminal organizations, and the choices and strategies that past and current governments have employed to combat them. Just as concerning, the ability of organized crime groups to thrive hinges critically on the acquiescence, protection, and even direct involvement of corrupt public officials, as well as corrupt private sector actors, who share in the benefits of illicit economic activities.

7. Conflicts are localized, while the government pursues a military-first approach

In [country] there is not one, but several local wars taking place, with actors and logics that aren’t exactly the same, but with something in common: they are raging everywhere. Meanwhile the government, according to experts and according to its own announcements, is pursuing a strategy that is more military than structural, even as it promises the opposite on paper.

Answers

(1), (3), (4), and (6) refer to Mexico.

(2), (5), and (7) refer to Colombia.

The day ahead: September 7, 2020

Today is a national holiday in the United States. (How to contact me)

Today is Labor Day in the United States, and now that I’ve read through the news in Latin America from the weekend, I’m going off the clock. I’ve got a list of household projects we need to work on, so I’ll be hard to reach.

Some articles I found interesting this morning

(Even more here)

September 7, 2020

Brazil

Hamilton Mourão, leader of the administration’s Amazon-protection task force, says he will keep the army in the rainforest this year to stop illegal logging

Colombia

Sustitución de cultivos de uso ilícito reclaman las comunidades en diversas regiones del país; asperjar con glifosato es lo que impone el gobierno nacional

La razón de ello sería el testimonio que este dio en noviembre de ese año señalando con nombre propio dirigentes políticos y a integrantes del Ejército que habrían dado apoyo a las estructuras paramilitares

El que verdaderamente va a decidir la suerte de Uribe no va a ser Gabriel Jaimes Durán, sino el propio Barbosa porque el fiscal al que le toque el proceso va a ser un simple pintado en la pared

Esta concentración de poderes y funciones en el Gobierno es muy peligrosa. El Estado de derecho colapsa sin controles horizontales entre los órganos del Estado

Conocimos el acta y el audio del Comité de Garantías Electorales y de Seguridad en el que la candidata a la alcaldía de Suárez (Cauca) denunció las amenazas contra su vida y también que las disidencias serían los sicarios

Cuba, Venezuela

“I’d try to reverse the failed Trump policies that inflicted harm on Cubans and their families,” said Biden

El Salvador

While the government has touted its Territorial Control Plan as the reason why homicides are down 60 percent since Bukele entered office, the gangs may be the ones holding the sword

El presidente de El Salvador debe aclarar su supuesta negociación con las maras

Mexico

El general Tomás Ángeles Dauahare y el comisario Javier Herrera Valles, quienes denunciaron en su momento a Genaro García Luna, fueron amedrentados, detenidos y encarcelados

It is strongly in the interest of the United States, although distracted by its own struggles, to be a particularly good and attentive neighbor in Mexico’s hour of need

A cuatro años de la creación de los lineamientos para certificar a todos los policías del país, esto sigue sin conseguirse. Al ritmo actual se necesitarían otros cuatro años

Hasta junio, unos 9 mil elementos de la extinta Policía Federal (PF) solicitaron el pago de la compensación voluntaria por la terminación voluntaria de su servicio a esa corporación, tras rechazar su transferencia para la Guardia Nacional

Organizaciones y defensores de derechos humanos y víctimas de la violencia rechazaron y recriminaron el discurso del Presidente Andrés Manuel López Obrador donde aseguró que en México ya no hay masacres ni desapariciones

Paraguay

Paraguay initially said the two girls were teenagers and labeled them as rebels, killed during a military operation targeting members of Paraguayan People’s Army

U.S.-Mexico Border

As the Coronavirus Descended on the Border, the Trump Administration Escalated Its Crackdown on Asylum

Venezuela

El militar falleció el 28 de junio de 2019, cuando llevaba una semana bajo custodia del régimen de Nicolás Maduro, luego de que las autoridades lo detuvieran

Las nuevas designaciones de ministros efectuadas por Nicolás Maduro Moros en el gabinete ejecutivo significan una pérdida de influencia de los militares en Venezuela

Una vez superada la pandemia en términos sanitarios, los mecanismos de control desplegados serán difíciles de revertir. Es posible que permanezcan entre nosotros mucho más que el propio virus que le sirve de pretexto

Sanctions and boycotts have failed to bring down president Nicolás Maduro. Now some opposition leaders are ready to shift strategy and take him on at the ballot box, despite concerns about the vote’s fairness

The largest oil reserves and one of the world’s most incompetent governments have brought authoritarianism, economic collapse and environmental disaster to the country

Luego de ser excarcelados por un indulto que decretó el gobernante Nicolás Maduro, el pasado 31 de agosto, varios ex presos políticos relataron haber sido víctimas de torturas

It seems certain that a substantial portion of what remains of the opposition movement will follow Capriles and take part in elections under the government’s control.

Some articles I found interesting this morning

Guatemalan Ministry of Defense photo at Diálogo. Caption: “In late June 2020, Guatemalan Army and National Civil Police personnel found three coca crops in a jungle area of Petén department, Guatemala.”

(Even more here)

September 4, 2020

Western Hemisphere Regional

Mr. Claver-Carone is a political appointee in the Trump White House whose controversial nomination would break a longstanding precedent that a Latin American serves as president of the IDB

Colombia

El Centro de Derechos Reproductivos y la Escuela de Salud Pública de la Universidad del Valle presentan una investigación que revela que la exposición al glifosato puede tener impactos negativos en la salud reproductiva de las personas

A Gabriel Jaimes Durán Estados Unidos le revocó la visa justo después de que Hernando Gómez Bustamante, un poderoso narcotraficante del cartel del norte del Valle conocido como Rasguño, declarara sobre el caso de Álvaro Gómez

InSight Crime carried out extensive research across 14 departments to see what forms of criminal governance have taken shape across Colombia, and what this might mean for the future

El Salvador

En 14 de las visitas participaron encapuchados que entraron a cárceles sin identificarse. Al menos uno de esos visitantes era un líder pandillero en libertad

The rare rebuke from the Trump administration — one of Bukele’s biggest boosters — came in a May 29 letter to an aide of the president from Thomas Kelly, acting vice president of the Millennium Challenge Corporation

Guatemala

On June 25, Guatemalan Army personnel found coca crops and a lab in a hard-to-reach jungle area of Petén

Honduras

El abogado y exfiscal hondureño Jari Dixon Herrera indicó este jueves que las Fuerzas Armadas no sólo están involucradas en narcotráfico sino en gigantescos casos de corrupción

Mexico

Animal Político solicitó a la Fiscalía General de la República (FGR) información oficial sobre las circunstancias del fallecimiento de la funcionaria, pero hasta el momento de esta publicación no se ha proporcionado información

Lo cierto es que así como en Morelos el narcotráfico y otras modalidades del crimen organizado están impunes –como lo está todo en el país, por desgracia

La lucha tenaz de Inés y Valentina iluminó el camino espinoso de la justicia para las mujeres sobrevivientes de tortura sexual

Nicaragua

As long as the business leadership isn’t accountable for its coexistence with the dictatorship, we will have no future

U.S.-Mexico Border

Nogales residents say the city is struggling amid the pandemic and after years of Trump painting the area as a ‘war zone’

Hundreds of migrant children have been held in hotels and guarded by government contractors in recent months as part of a secretive new system that advocates warn puts kids in danger

About 30 minors a day were handed over to migrant shelters run by the Department of Health and Human Services in recent weeks, the people said, compared with about six a day a month ago

Venezuela

Relatives of at least 259 jailed Venezuelan police and military officers are clamoring for their release, upset that none of them were included on the list of 110 people pardoned by President Nicolas Maduro’s government

Moves this week by Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to recast his authoritarian image are succeeding in what might be their principal aim: dividing the U.S.-backed opposition

The day ahead: September 4, 2020

I’m in meetings from late morning to late afternoon. (How to contact me)

From a Colombia media interview to two border/migration coalition meetings to check-ins with colleagues, I may be in solid meetings from about 11:00 to 4:00 and difficult to contact during that time.

Some articles I found interesting this morning

AFP / Luis Robayo photo at El Espectador (Colombia). Caption: “La aspersión aérea en el país comenzó en 1992 con cultivos de amapola y en 1994 con cultivos de coca.”

(Even more here)

September 3, 2020

Western Hemisphere Regional

El candidato de Donald Trump a la presidencia del Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo defiende su independencia de Washington

Colombia

Una revisión sistemática de la Universidad del Valle a estudios de todo el mundo indica que este químico puede afectar la producción de espermatozoides y causar abortos espontáneos

Mexico

Dueños de negocios en Tamaulipas y Nuevo León hablan de su experiencia como víctimas de este delito

La dureza de sus acciones, suponen, se debe a sus alianzas con el Cártel Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG) y células de Los Rojos, cuyo líder, Santiago Mazari El Carrete, cumple sentencia en un penal federal

López Obrador promised to bring peace to the country; but in the first seven months of 2020, there have been 21,060 homicides in Mexico, slightly above the 20,713 in the same period of 2019

Nicaragua

La institución castrense ha sido seriamente cuestionada por el papel que ha jugado durante los últimos dos años, y por estar «alineada políticamente» al gobierno sandinista

South America Regional

During the cold war, eight US-backed military dictatorships jointly plotted the cross-border kidnap, torture, rape and murder of hundreds of their political opponents. Now some of the perpetrators are finally facing justice

Venezuela

El director del portal Punto de Corte, este 2 de septiembre, narró a Luz Mely Reyes parte de lo que vio y vivió durante su reclusión en los calabozos de la Dirección General de Contrainteligencia Militar (Dgcim)

Henrique Capriles said he’s determined to fight for fair elections on Dec. 6, despite obstacles created by socialist President Nicolás Maduro

The day ahead: September 3, 2020

I’m mostly reachable, except for the first half of the afternoon. (How to contact me)

I have a few calls with colleagues between lunchtime and mid-afternoon. Otherwise I should be at my desk, writing an update about the border and doing some research for an upcoming Colombia report.

Some articles I found interesting this morning

Octavio Gómez photo at Proceso (Mexico). Caption: “López Obrador y militares en el gobierno.”

(Even more here)

September 2, 2020

Western Hemisphere Regional

Las crisis en el BID y en la CIDH están inspiradas en la estrategia que, con aires imperiales, Donald Trump se ha fijado para América Latina

The way the secretary general has gone about taking this decision – and the IACHR’s response explaining its response to the allegations – raise serious concerns that this is a pretext to undermine the autonomy and credibility of the commission

The countries that have been among the hardest hit and that have driven the region’s ballooning case and death rates are led by politicians who have downplayed the severity of the crisis

El ex canciller peruano Rafael Roncagliolo denunció que Estados Unidos ofreció cargos a Brasil, Ecuador y Jamaica en el BID a cambio de apoyo a Mauricio Claver-Carone

Bolivia

En lo institucional y en las calles, oficialistas y opositores se disputan quién define los destinos del país. La elección nacional y las subnacionales avivan el conflicto por las ambiciones de los actores en ambas votaciones

Brazil

Some 66 million people, 30% of the population, have been getting 600 reais ($110) a month, making it the most ambitious social program ever undertaken in Brazil, a shocking shift under President Jair Bolsonaro

Colombia

Fue el último comandante del frente 37 y tras el Acuerdo de Paz se convirtió en coordinador del programa de sustitución de cultivos de uso ilícito. Fue asesinado, según testigos, por el Eln

Lo más probable es que Duque tampoco pueda ver despegar el primer avión con glifosato este año, y sus anuncios sobre el regreso del glifosato sigan siendo una mera mostrada de dientes

  • Ana Cristina Restrepo Jimenez, Provida Selectiva (El Colombiano (Medellin Colombia), September 2, 2020).

El Centro de Derechos Reproductivos y el Grupo de Epidemiología y Salud Poblacional de la Universidad del Valle presentarán mañana el estudio “Efectos del glifosato en la salud reproductiva humana”

Ruiz Massieu es criticado en voz baja por sus colegas dada su pasividad, falta de liderazgo e incapacidad para depurar una organización

Mexico

Destacó su colaboración en combate al huachicol, la construcción del aeropuerto de Santa Lucía y el combate a la pandemia de Covid-19

Esta es la parte más visible del nuevo arreglo de poder y dominación. La presencia de los militares fuera de los cuarteles no tiene precedente en la historia moderna del país

El Segundo Informe de Gobierno presenta los logros y avances de la gestio?n pu?blica entre el 1 de septiembre de 2019 y el 30 de junio de 2020

Las armas de grueso calibre utilizadas en este ataque estarían relacionadas con otros delitos de alto impacto registrados recientemente y en los que participaron miembros de la delincuencia organizada

U.S.-Mexico Border

According to the Mexican government, a total of 5,637 foreigners requested to stay in Mexico as refugees from March 1 to June 30

“Fisher Industries’ private bollard fence will fail during extreme high flow events,” concluded Tompkins, who specializes in river management

Uruguay

Manini Ríos, comandante en jefe del Ejército en 2018, es cuestionado por no haber denunciado esas declaraciones

Venezuela

El abogado Alonso Medina Roa señala que el silencio sobre los militares es un mensaje ejemplarizante a los integrantes de la FAN que se mantienen en los cuarteles

Llegaron a las oficinas de la cárcel militar de Ramo Verde 12 boletas de excarcelación para presos políticos que recibieron un «indulto» por parte del gobierno de Nicolás Maduro, a pesar de que nunca debieron estar presos

At long last, a senior official in the Trump administration has spoken the truth about U.S. Venezuela policy, even if it might frustrate the many Venezuelans duped by President Trump’s demagoguery about a possible military intervention

What does its aggressive coca eradication campaign tell us about Colombia—and about the United States?

Over the next few weeks I expect to use this space to think some things through in a series of bite-sized but connected posts. I’m going to start with the reality of forced coca eradication and the Colombian government’s larger plan for the millions who live in rural zones where illicit crops and armed groups predominate.

One such zone especially got me thinking: the Guayabero River region in Meta and Guaviare departments, in south-central Colombia about 200 miles south, and 20 hours’ drive, from Bogotá. (I’ve been near here—but not quite this far south—when working on this 2009 report.) In early June and again in early August, this zone saw strong confrontations between coca-growing farmers and security forces.

Strong images from June 4 in the Guayabero region.

The main military unit operating in the Guayabero is the Omega Joint Task Force, which has received heavy U.S. assistance since its founding in 2003. Its current commander (who has threatened legal action against local human rights groups) holds degrees from both the National Defense University in Washington and the Army War College in Carlisle, Pennsylvania (which means he probably speaks English better than I do). Omega is one of four units specified to be receiving assistance from a four-month, fifty-three-person detachment of U.S. military trainers that arrived in Colombia at the beginning of June.

The Omega Task Force isn’t accused of killing anyone in these confrontations, but local campesino groups and national human rights groups have leveled some very troubling allegations of rough and aggressive treatment of farmers at the soldiers’ hands. I’ll summarize those in another post.

Omega in the Guayabero is just one example among many of a more combative approach to forced coca eradication this year, and especially since the pandemic lockdown began in March. I discussed this trend in a post in early July, but it’s time to dig deeper.

Here are the points I want to explore over the next few weeks. The outline may change as research accumulates and thoughts evolve.

Forced coca eradication has been notably rougher and more aggressive this year.

There have been many more denunciations of aggressive behavior in 2020 than in 2018 or 2019. While coca farmers aren’t models of nonviolence either, the security forces have the guns and the option whether to escalate or de-escalate. Where armed groups are forcing some coca farmers to protest against their better judgment, that should be another reason to de-escalate.

Eradication is larger in scale this year.

Too much is being guided right now by a single, short-term number: hectares of coca planted in Colombia. The U.S. government is pushing Colombia to cut that number by half in 2023, and Bogotá is pursuing some record eradication targets in order to get there. The number of eradication teams has grown sixfold, much of it with U.S. funding.

Eradication is happening with the participation of U.S.-aided armed forces units.

Joint Task Force Omega in the Guayabero is a key example. The U.S. Security Force Assistance Brigade that arrived in June is also accompanying military units in two other major coca-growing zones, Catatumbo and Nariño, as well as the nationwide mobile Army Counternarcotics Brigade created with funds from the original 2000 “Plan Colombia” aid package. As eradication operations grow more aggressive, U.S.-aided units’ behavior requires especially tight scrutiny.

Eradication is happening uncoordinated with food security or any other economic assistance—even in a pandemic.

Colombia’s defense minister has acknowledged this, as have officials with whom I’ve recently spoken. Leaving coca farming families hungry is not only cruel, it would seem to be a recipe for rapid re-planting. Perhaps it makes sense if the goal is to meet an eradication goal just for 2020, future be damned. But it makes no sense if the goal is to achieve permanent reductions in planting, or to integrate these abandoned territories into the rest of the country.

Farmers are caught in the middle.

With no land titling, no government presence, no access to credit, and no farm-to-market roads, coca—an easily transportable product that for years has sold at a reliably steady price—is farmers’ best, and often only, option. Armed groups in some cases require farmers to plant it, and there’s no government nearby to prevent that. Armed groups in some cases are forcing farmers to protest eradication. Campesino leaders, especially those leading coca substitution projects, are being killed in shocking numbers.

Depite all this, when eradicators show up in a territory, who bears the brunt of the security forces’ aggressive behavior? The farmers.

Some past efforts tried to establish a state presence, to uphold farmers’ organizations, and to integrate communities into the national economy. Right now, these are underfunded at best, or stalled or abandoned at worst.

Examples in the past 10 years include the National Territorial Consolidation Program, the Land Restitution Law of 2011, and the 2016 peace accords’ rural reform and crop substitution chapters. None of these efforts is thriving right now.

Trying to reveal the “real agenda” behind this means exploring the Colombian elite’s split personality.

This is where I’d like to conclude this series of posts. Colombia’s elite seems to show two very different faces to communities in rural areas, including coca cultivators. The same probably applies to the urban poor.

The first face—that of “consolidation,” “stabilization,” land restitution, and the peace accords’ commitments—says to communities, “you can stay where you live.” Even if they don’t see the rural smallholder model as the most efficient approach, they’re willing to direct resources, and in some cases to foster participation.

The second face—that of paramilitarism, “mega-projects,” impunity for social leader killings, refusal to govern territory, and nakedly favoring large landholders—says to communities, “we don’t want you here.” (Or perhaps, “the free market doesn’t want you here”—a message as old as the British Enclosure Movement of the 1700s, and nothing unfamiliar to residents of declining factory towns and poor urban neighborhoods in the United States today.)

Forced, aggressive coca eradication without any food or economic aid? That’s solidly an example of that second face.

The U.S. government supports both faces of Colombia’s elite, to an extent that approaches split-personality disorder. Its aid programs have helped dozens of rural communities to remain where they are and to obtain land ownership, and some military aid programs helped improve Colombia’s overall human rights record. But it also supports aggressive forced eradication and (as we saw in documents released this week) has been too slow or quiet in its response to paramilitarism, social leader killings, and serious human rights abuses.

I’ll be digging more into these questions over the next several weeks.

The day ahead: September 2, 2020

I should be reachable much of the day. (How to contact me)

Except for an internal meeting mid-day, I’m at home doing some writing, putting together an event for next week, and attending to a list of tasks—many of them related to catching up after two weeks’ vacation—that are too small and numerous to detail here. I should be reachable.

Some articles I found interesting this morning

Photo from Semana (Colombia). Caption: “Disidencias de las Farc en el Cauca Foto: Tomada de Facebook”

(Even more here)

September 1, 2020

Western Hemisphere Regional

An ombudswoman for the Organization of American States is facing criticism that she assisted Secretary General Luis Almagro in a widely condemned effort to remove the region’s top human rights official

Bolivia

Human rights organizations say the motorcycle gangs, or “motoqueros”, are acting in the interests of the conservative interim government

Brazil

Heckler & Koch cita agitação política e violência policial como motivos para suspender vendas para o Brasil. Submetralhadora MP5 foi usada no assassinato de Marielle Franco

The Brazilian president has done a disastrous job with the public health response to the pandemic, making decisions and statements that have cost untold numbers of lives. But he is winning the narrative war

Colombia

El 70% de los victimarios identificados son sicarios que ni siquiera saben quién los contrató y el 30% son disidencias de las Farc, ELN, Clan del Golfo, etc.

Se trata del frente Carlos Patiño que opera en el sur del Cauca y sostiene una disputa a sangre y fuego con la Segunda Marquetalia, estructura comandada por Márquez, Santrich y El Paisa

De acuerdo con información preliminar, los militares asesinados y el que resultó herido, adelantaban labores de erradicación forzada de cultivos de uso ilícito

Desde el año pasado la Embajada venía advirtiéndole al gobierno colombiano que Mancuso quedaría libre este año. Sin embargo, sus advertencias fueron ignoradas por parte del equipo de Iván Duque

Haiti

State Department’s Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs (INL) awarded a $73,000 contract for the provision of “riot gear kit[s]” for the police’s crowd control unit

Honduras

Denunció además que las recientes incautaciones de drogas que el gobierno ha vendido como “logros” de la lucha contra el narcotráfico, son realmente un espejismo político

Mexico

Este 30 y 31 de agosto se cumplen 10 años desde que la Corte Interamericana de Derechos Humanos (Corte IDH) sentenció a México por la tortura sexual de la que fueron víctimas Inés Fernández Ortega y Valentina Rosendo Cantú

El presidente Andrés Manuel López Obrador ha encontrado en el Ejército una institución que puede hacer tareas de seguridad, de construcción y hasta de ingeniería, sin embargo, las fuerzas armadas ahora enfrentan acusaciones

Muy claridosa la Sedena. Por sus respuestas, ni les interesa saber, e investigar menos, las muertes de civiles desarmados a manos de soldados

He still gets 52% support for a coronavirus policy that amounts to little more than damage control with as little testing as possible and almost no contact tracing or mandatory lockdowns

U.S.-Mexico Border

When the new wall projects are finished in Cochise County, they will seal off nearly 75 miles of the border to animals larger than a rabbit, despite that area being the home or migratory route of mountain lions, deer, bear and numerous other species

A new report from a government watchdog office concluded that the U.S. Border Patrol complied with its use of force policy when it twice deployed tear gas to stop hundreds of mostly Central American migrants from rushing the border

Leon was not swayed by the Trump administration’s argument that CBP and Border Patrol employees are adequately qualified to determine which asylum cases deserve to move forward

Venezuela

Durante los primeros seis meses del año el Centro Gumilla y el Programa Venezolano de Educación-Acción (Provea), pudieron conocer de 201 presuntas ejecuciones extrajudiciales, 129 de ellas localizadas en Miranda y 72 en el Distrito Capital

President Nicolás Maduro cast his decree as a bid for unity, but many members of the political opposition quickly scorned it

The move appeared aimed at deepening divisions within the opposition over whether to participate in the December vote

El enviado especial de Estados Unidos para Venezuela, Elliot Abrams, fustigó a la líder opositora María Corina Machado, después de que expresara su posición de no adherirse a la coalición de Juan Guaidó y en su lugar proponer una alternativa no electoral

The day ahead: September 1, 2020

I’m in meetings during the first half of the afternoon. (How to contact me)

I’m in “meetings” with border groups, then with a colleague with whom I’m organizing an event for next week (details soon). Otherwise I should be reachable.

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