Adam Isacson

Defense, security, borders, migration, and human rights in Latin America and the United States. May not reflect my employer’s consensus view.

Archives

August 2022

2 weeks of vacation

I’m out until after U.S. Labor Day (until September 6). Because there’s a lot to do during these weeks—a major wedding anniversary, dropping my only child off to start college, giving my first class at GW University—I’ll be difficult to reach. Unless it’s really screamingly urgent, I’d appreciate you waiting until September 6 to contact me. Thanks!

Weekly U.S.-Mexico Border Update: August 19, 2022

With this series of weekly updates, WOLA seeks to cover the most important developments at the U.S.-Mexico border. See past weekly updates here.

Due to staff absence, WOLA will not publish Weekly Border Updates on August 26 or September 2. The next update will appear on September 9.

This week:

  • July saw the second consecutive monthly drop in CBP’s encounters with migrants. The agency encountered slightly more individual migrants and significantly fewer repeat border crossers. Only 52 percent of July’s migrants came from Mexico or Central America’s “Northern Triangle,” the nationalities that make up nearly all Title 42 expulsions. As the remaining 48 percent came from countries whose citizens are harder to expel, the share of migrants subjected to Title 42 in July fell to 37 percent, the smallest share since the pandemic began.
  • Mexico’s two largest border cities, Tijuana and Ciudad Juárez, saw unusually fierce outbreaks of organized-crime violence between August 11 and the August 13-14 weekend. CBP’s operations, including removals and expulsions into those cities, were unaffected.
  • Revelations about continued confiscation of Sikh asylum seekers’ turbans in Arizona drew new attention, and new advocacy energy, to the longstanding issue of CBP officers’ and Border Patrol agents’ confiscation, disposal, and non-return of migrants’ valuable and vital possessions.

Migration slows from Mexico and Northern Triangle, increases from elsewhere

U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and its Border Patrol component encountered undocumented migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border 199,976 times in July, a 4 percent drop from June and a 6 percent drop from July 2021. “This marks the second month in a row of decreased encounters along the Southwest border. While the encounter numbers remain high, this is a positive trend and the first two-month drop since October 2021,” CBP Commissioner Chris Magnus said in a release.

Of last month’s 199,976 “migrant encounters”:

  • 181,552 took place in territory where Border Patrol operates: between the official border crossings, or ports of entry. That is 6 percent fewer than in June 2022 and 10 percent fewer than in July 2021.
  • 18,424 took place at the ports of entry, usually because CBP officers allowed migrants—many of them asylum seekers—to approach these border facilities and present themselves. That was 19 percent more encounters at ports of entry than in June, and 42 percent more than in July 2021. In the nearly 11 years for which we have monthly data, July 2022 saw the 3rd-largest monthly total of migrants allowed to approach ports of entry. (Really the 2nd-largest total, because April 2022, when a large number of Ukrainian refugees were processed at the ports of entry, was an anomaly.)

CBP reported that its 199,976 “encounters” took place with 162,792 actual individual migrants. 22 percent of last month’s migrant encounters were with repeat crossers: individuals who had already been encountered at least once in the previous 12 months.

That is a larger number of repeat crossers than was the norm in fiscal years 2014-19 (15 percent). The reason is the Title 42 pandemic authority in place since March 2020, which usually expels migrants very quickly: without a chance to ask for asylum in the United States, but also with very little time in CBP custody or other consequences. That, as an August 16 Wall Street Journal analysis points out, has incentivized repeat attempts to cross.

Despite this, July continued what appears to be a several-month decline in repeat border crossers. Although CBP reported a June-July drop in overall “encounters,” the agency reported increased individuals (162,792, up from 153,379 in June’s CBP release).

Read More

Data tables added to many border infographics

I added a small but useful feature to our collection of infographics about the U.S.-Mexico border and migration, hosted at our Border Oversight website.

Now, it’s not just a pretty image of a chart: if you want the actual numbers, many pages now have a little link you can click to view the underlying data as a plain-HTML table. That table easily copies-and-pastes into any spreadsheet.

A few weeks ago U.S. Customs and Border Protection started sharing its migration data, going back to fiscal year 2020, as a downloadable dataset. The “data table” pages here query that dataset in an instant and save me an incredible amount of time building these graphics. And now, any time CBP uploads new data, I can grab it, upload it to the Border Oversight server, and all these little “data table” pages will update automatically.

Latin America Security-Related News: August 17, 2022

(Even more here)

August 17, 2022

Brazil

Three Brazilian cutting-edge defense technology projects have caught the attention of the U.S. military and are vying for funding under the Research, Development, Test, and Evaluation (RDT&E) agreement between both nations

Colombia

La instrucción de Gustavo Petro ha causado polémica en las tropas, pero la ONU celebra el cambio de mentalidad

En un acto de irrespeto difícil de explicar, faltando apenas 45 minutos, Petro avisó que la ceremonia quedaba aplazada

Petro will be emboldened to implement his vision of peace but will quickly have to identify solutions to the obstacles facing the peace process

El pasado del nuevo mandatario parece ser ingrediente que le faltaba a un gobierno para concretar un acuerdo de paz con esta guerrilla

El secuestro ocurre en medio de los intentos del gobierno Petro de reactivar los dialogos de paz con esta guerrilla

La general Yackeline Navarro Ordóñez, quien desde hoy será la subdirectora de la Policía, viene de ser directora nacional de Escuelas de la Policía Nacional, desde donde promovió entre los cadetes la defensa absoluta de los derechos humanos

Benjamín Núñez, a quien sus subalternos señalan por el crimen, salió del país. ¿Cómo va el caso?

Colombia, Cuba

La revista RAYA tuvo acceso a miles de documentos clasificados de organismos de inteligencia militar colombianos donde queda en evidencia cómo espiaron a diplomáticos y funcionarios cubanos, líderes políticos de izquierda, periodistas y líderes sociales

Colombia, Venezuela

No existen cifras oficiales sobre la magnitud del reclutamiento forzado ni sobre su participación en situaciones donde no se los reconoce como víctimas

Ecuador

Desde el domingo 14 de agosto en Guayaquil, Durán y Samborondón rige un nuevo estado de excepción por 30 días

El Salvador

La policía de El Salvador detuvo a 50.000 personas en el curso de una “guerra” contra las pandillas que lleva adelante el presidente Nayib Bukele hace cinco meses, amparado en un régimen de excepción, informaron este martes las autoridades

El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua

Los gobiernos de Nicaragua, Guatemala, El Salvador y Honduras cada vez tienen menos remilgos para presentarse en público como lo que son: enemigos de la prensa independiente. Los periodistas somos el objetivo de su violencia

Guatemala

La confidencialidad del acuerdo tan solo confirma la reserva en información clave del Ejército, pero no en los acuerdos pactados entre instituciones

The country has persecuted the founder of one of its major daily newspapers—again. But that’s just the beginning

Mexico

El Subsecretario recalcó que “todavía no se pasa [la Guardia Nacional a la Sedena]”, pero que “hay una discusión en que aún está en el Congreso”

La única vía de atacar la violencia en México es fortalecer el Estado de Derecho y terminar con la impunidad, dice la antropóloga estadounidense Maureen Meyer, vicepresidenta de Programas de WOLA

El mandatario evadió hablar del número de intentos que las Fuerzas Armadas en México tuvieron para detener a Caro Quintero, pero sí expuso que existe desconfianza en los militares desde el gobierno del panista Felipe Calderón

Nicaragua, Venezuela

Los Army Games o Juegos de Guerra fueron fundados en el 2015 por el Ministerio de Defensa de Rusia. En estos participan cada año más de 30 países.

U.S.-Mexico Border

Family members are still being separated under some circumstances, including if a parent has a criminal history, has health issue, or is being criminally prosecuted

“There are good agents and bad ones,” he says. “Some can care less that there’s been a policy change”

Venezuela

El gobernante Nicolás Maduro ratificó a 15 de los 28 jefes de ZODI y a seis de los ocho comandantes de las REDI

Desde 2015, Rusia organiza cada año una especie de Juegos Olímpicos militares. Esta vez también habrá competencias en Venezuela

A growing number of US citizens are being detained in Venezuela — giving authoritarian leader Nicolas Maduro leverage in frosty relations with Washington

At colombiapeace.org: A Corruption Scandal Undermines Colombia’s Peace Accord Implementation

I hadn’t seen anything in English about the OCAD Paz scandal, a nasty example of corruption in Colombia that has undermined what to me is the most important part of the 2016 peace accord. Officials in the last government demanded bribes and kickbacks, perhaps amounting in the hundreds of millions of dollars, from vital programs seeking to establish a government presence in conflictive, poorly governed zones.

It was revealed by the work of Colombian journalists who carried out a six-month investigation. The scandal’s breadth, implications, and current status are the subject of a new Q&A I just posted to WOLA’s Colombia Peace website. Read it there.

Latin America Security-Related News: August 16, 2022

(Even more here)

August 16, 2022

Brazil

Far-right president Jair Bolsonaro is trailing in the polls and has hinted he will not cede power if defeated

Colombia

Even if Colombia’s political system is doomed to hit gridlock later in his term, the country’s new president, Gustavo Petro, still has a few months to check a few agenda items off his list and start their implementation

El Salvador

Más de 800 personas que fueron arrestadas durante el régimen de excepción que se implementa en El Salvador para combatir a las pandillas han sido liberadas

Guatemala

La sociedad civil organizada, la prensa independiente, y la ciudadanía en general debemos interesarnos en investigar y denunciar este convenio entre el Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) y el Ministerio de la Defensa

La alianza pro-impunidad de hoy revive, de alguna manera, el pacto que se forjó durante la guerra

Sus abogados sostienen que los señalamientos se basan solo en el testimonio de un exbanquero que, según Zamora, lavó dinero para los expresidentes Mauricio Funes de El Salvador y Jimmy Morales de Guatemala

Mexico

El mayor problema está en las condiciones laborales de los militares de la Guardia Nacional. Estos llegaron a una nueva institución con un “oficio de comisión”

López Obrador suggested Monday the attacks were part of a political conspiracy against him by opponents that he describes as “conservatives” and he argued that “there is no big problem” with security

Mexico’s peacefulness has deteriorated by 17.1 percent over the last seven years. However, in the past two years, peacefulness in the country has improved by 3.6 percent

U.S.-Mexico Border

CBP officials blindsided by state move to block asylum-seekers

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The number of unique individuals encountered nationwide in July 2022 was 162,792, a one percent increase in the number of unique enforcement encounters than the prior month

With about two months left in the agency’s fiscal year, full-year arrests are expected to break the two million mark for the first time

One to three people a day are being removed from Migrant Protection Protocols, which required asylum seekers to wait in Tijuana for U.S. court cases

U.S.-Mexico Border, Venezuela

Desde abril de 2022, cientos de migrantes que han ingresado por caminos no autorizados de la frontera sur son enviados a la capital de Estados Unidos y Nueva York por instrucciones de los gobernadores de Texas y Arizona

Venezuela

Dentro de las delegaciones participantes se encuentran China, Rusia e Irán

Latin America Security-Related News: August 15, 2022

(Even more here)

August 15, 2022

Brazil

Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has issued more than a dozen decrees in favor of Brazilians’ right to bear arms. Sales have spiked and gun shops and shooting ranges have opened up all over Brazil

Colombia

Just one week after his inauguration, Colombian President Gustavo Petro sent 52 generals into retirement. The biggest sweep in Colombia’s history is aimed at putting together a corruption-free brass

El 13 de agosto de 2020 el comunicador indígena murió por un disparo de fusil en medio de unos disturbios

After a meeting between representatives of both sides in Havana, Colombia’s national peace commissioner, Danilo Rueda, said the government would take the necessary “judicial and political steps”

El Gobierno anuncia, oficialmente, que reconoce la legitimidad de la Delegación de Diálogos del Ejército de Liberación Nacional-ELN, en la búsqueda de la paz

En el volumen “No matarás”, que es la narrativa histórica del conflicto en el Informe Final de la Comisión de la Verdad, se muestran factores que permitieron una guerra tan larga en el país, entre ellos el rol fundamental del narcotráfico

Los muchachos fueron presentados como sicarios del Clan del Golfo. Hoy, las investigaciones apuntan a que fueron víctimas de un falso positivo

  • La Purga (Cambio (Colombia), August 15, 2022).

La inconformidad, que ya era grande, creció con el trino del presidente en el que advirtió que sancionará a comandantes militares y de policía si se presentan masacres y asesinatos a líderes sociales en sus jurisdicciones

Colombia, Cuba

El presidente de Cuba, Miguel Díaz-Canel se reunió con los delegados del gobierno de Gustavo Petro y negociadores del ELN en La Habana

El canciller colombiano, Álvaro Leyva, rechazó este jueves desde La Habana la decisión de Estados Unidos de mantener a Cuba en su lista de Estados patrocinadores del terrorismo

Colombia, Venezuela

Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido has held “informal meetings” with members of newly elected Colombian President Gustavo Petro’s government, he said on Friday

Ecuador

Además, 17 personas resultaron heridas por explosión en Guayaquil, atribuida al crimen organizado

Haiti

Haiti is on the edge of collapse as gang violence has erupted all over the capital leaving hundreds of dead and wounded in recent weeks and a population living in perpetual terror. The United States has a history of intervention in Haiti, so what is holding back President Biden?

Honduras

The Honduran Ministry of National Defense’s (SEDENA) Human Rights Directorate, with the support of the Human Rights Initiative (HRI) of U.S. Southern Command’s (SOUTHCOM) Human Rights Office, held the Honduran Human Rights Initiative Seminar, August 9-11, 2022, in Tegucigalpa

El gobierno anunció la creación de una nueva comisión con la finalidad de investigar las violaciones a derechos humanos y tratar de encontrar una solución definitiva

Mexico

Behind the violence is a bloody dispute among warring cartels that’s paralyzed several cities across Mexico

24 vehicles were burned across the region including 15 in Tijuana; 17 arrests made in connection with mayhem

Tras un atentado a balazos en el interior del Cereso, que dejó dos muertos, Ciudad Juárez vivió casi 10 horas de ataques e incendios a comercios, asesinatos y balaceras, lo que obligó al cierre masivo de negocios y a la suspensión de actividades en planteles escolares, oficinas judiciales y algunas maquiladoras

En 19 meses del Gobierno de Joe Biden en Estados Unidos, checa cómo ha aumentado el despliegue de la Marina, Ejército y Guardia Nacional en las frontera norte y sur para contener a migrantes y los resultados que ha dado

Así lo aseguró en entrevista el ex titular del Instituto Nacional de Migración (INM), Tonatiuh Guillén, quien criticó que México mantenga el despliegue de guardias y soldados

Mexico’s president has begun exploring plans to sidestep congress to hand formal control of the National Guard to the army, a move that could extend the military’s control over policing

Organizaciones humanitarias e internacionales han expresado inquietud porque los militares realicen labores de seguridad pública en México, y que la Guardia Nacional pase al control de la Secretaría de la Defensa Nacional

Montserrat Caballero, alcaldesa de Tijuana, pidió a los criminales cobrar solamente a quienes les deben “facturas”

Cartel violence has wracked Mexico since the reported arrest of cartel leader Ricardo Ruiz, or “Doble R.” Now AMLO is claiming Doble R was never arrested

An outbreak of violence in Ciudad Juarez, across the border from El Paso, and in the western states of Jalisco and Guanajuato have stunned even Mexicans accustomed to violence.

Peru

Al lugar se hicieron presentes sus familiares, donde el presidente Castillo lamentó sus muertes

U.S.-Mexico Border

Neighbors and elected officials in Nogales were irritated by the sudden launch of a surveillance aircraft they find intrusive. CBP maintains the aerostat only looks down at the border region

The policy, just one of several that have kept migrants in Mexico, is actually “counterproductive” to protecting people from COVID

Venezuela

Venezuela envió a la frontera una comisión mixta conformada por miembros del Dgcim, Cicpc y el Ministerio Público para esclarecer los hechos, pero no han emitido ninguna declaración oficial

La misión fundada por Hugo Chávez en 2006 con el objetivo de atender los problemas de exclusión y miseria, ha derivado en planes que restringen la libertad de las personas que se supone debe rehabilitar

In the classroom this fall

By the end of this weekend, I’ll have completed a draft syllabus for Security in the Americas, a course I’ll be teaching every Monday evening this fall at George Washington University.

There is a lot to talk about: the list of topics I want to cover is about 50% longer than the number of class sessions. Also, I’ve got so much great work archived in my database, it will take me a while to select just a few readings for each session. I also have to figure out how to engage and evaluate everyone.

I’ve guest-lectured countless classes, but have never taught an entire course. In fact, I haven’t been affiliated with a university since I received my M.A. in 1994. So, apologies in advance to the students who’ll be watching me figure things out in real time.

Latin America Security-Related News: August 12, 2022

(Even more here)

August 12, 2022

Argentina, Venezuela

La justicia argentina procedió el jueves a la incautación de un avión de carga de origen venezolano en repuesta a una solicitud de Estados Unidos que considera hubo irregularidades en la adquisición de la aeronave a una compañía aérea de Irán

Brazil

The second letter, published in newspapers last Friday, carries the endorsement of hundreds of companies in banking, oil, construction and transportation — sectors that traditionally have been averse to taking public political stances

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) fears for Brazil’s democracy as it heads into a raucous presidential election in October, and he wants the U.S. Senate to officially stand on the side of voters — regardless of who they choose

Colombia

The 800-soldier unit racked up at least 60 misconduct offenses, including incidents with alcohol, drugs and adultery; a battalion commander was fired; members of one advising team are facing punishment for their behavior in Colombia; and another team’s actions in Honduras are under investigation

El Pnis será la primera prueba de fuego que tendrá que enfrentar la política de drogas de Gustavo Petro.

The ELN’s cards are on the table, and it seems that both the new government and illegal groups are open to exploring peace talks

What does the law mean for women and the punitive penal system? WOLA explores those questions and more

Organizaciones sociales, oficinas de Naciones Unidas y un sector del Congreso le hicieron llegar al presidente Gustavo Petro un documento con ejes y líneas de acciones urgentes para detener los asesinatos sistemáticos a líderes, lideresas, defensores de derechos humanos y firmantes de paz

Colombia, Cuba

El canciller Álvaro Leyva llegó a La Habana a la cabeza de una delegación colombiana para entablar contactos con los representantes del ELN

Colombia, Venezuela

  • Rocio San Miguel, ¿el Fin de los Tancol? (Asociación Civil Control Ciudadano (Venezuela), August 12, 2022).

Terroristas armados narcotraficantes de Colombia, en su acrónimo TANCOL, fue el término escogido por el mandatario venezolano

El Salvador

Desde que El Salvador entró en Régimen de Excepción, una madre, su hija e hijo van de casa en casa, de un hotel a otro, porque tienen miedo de terminar en la cárcel

Guatemala

Con la consigna de #NoNosCallarán, cientos de guatemaltecos salieron ayer a las calles de la capital para manifestar su rechazo a la corrupción en el gobierno del presidente Alejandro Giammattei

Guatemala arrests a crusading journalist

Mexico

El registro de los dos últimos minutos de vuelo que tienen las llamadas cajas negras será clave a la hora de determinar la causa del desplome

Si bien las autoridades de Chihuahua no han informado si hay relación entre los diversos hechos, tiendas y gasolineras de la ciudad cerraron temporalmente debido a la violencia

Por fuera de la propia Constitución que expresamente coloca a la Guardia Nacional bajo un mando civil y a la espalda del Poder Constituyente y del Legislativo, AMLO manda un mensaje político peligroso para la democracia mexicana en dos sentidos

Posterior a ese enfrentamiento, miembros del CJNG incendiaron automóviles, unidades de transporte público, tiendas de conveniencia y diversos comercios

Nicaragua

With virtually no independent journalists left inside and foreign reporters banned from entering, Nicaragua has become ‘an information black hole’

Peru

La fiscalía peruana inició una nueva investigación preliminar contra el presidente Pedro Castillo y su ministro de Transportes por presuntamente integrar una organización criminal. Esta es la sexta indagación contra el mandatario, un caso inédito en la historia peruana

Cerca de 15 aeronaves convergieron en precisa coordinación sobre la zona de Massapato y Undurabe, frente a la quebrada de Jajasmayo, en la zona de Vizcatán

U.S.-Mexico Border

Border agents improperly shared confidential information about u.S. journalists, activists and others with mexican law enforcement, putting them at risk in a country with a dismal record on human rights

The Office of Professional Responsibility (OPR) is now hiring the very people that Congress is investigating, BPCITs

Colombia’s weak peso

I just paid $46.59 per night to stay in the Holiday Inn right in the middle of Bogotá’s business district. A perfectly quiet, clean chain hotel with fast internet, hot water, and free breakfast.

The Colombian peso is so weak right now: in part because the dollar is strong everywhere, but in part because investors had a little freakout after Colombians elected a “leftist” president.

On this last trip, I found myself tipping cab drivers 50% (tips aren’t usually a thing in taxis) because the rides were so cheap (like $7 for a half-hour trip) that they barely seemed enough to cover the gas.

Latin America Security-Related News: August 11, 2022

(Even more here)

August 11, 2022

Argentina, Bolivia, Chile

A California-sized piece of South America is stifling production of lithium at a time when battery makers desperately need it

Colombia, Venezuela

Expertos consideran que el anuncio de restablecimiento de relaciones militares entre Venezuela y Colombia es positivo

Colombia

Feared Gulf Clan has unleashed terror campaign since arrest of leader in May but keen to talk to leftist president Gustavo Petro

Por ahora parece que va a haber más zanahoria que garrote

One of the world’s largest sustainable development agencies has worked with energy companies to quash opposition and keep oil flowing, even in sensitive areas

En su más reciente volumen del Informe Final, la Comisión de la Verdad puso su lupa sobre episodios en los que las entidades públicas terminaron siendo arma para la guerra. Uno de ellos es el caso del exfiscal Luis Camilo Osorio

Guatemala

Time is no longer on the side of the U.S. and of those who support democracy

Honduras

Though the roots of the country’s land battles go back decades, there is new hope that turmoil over disputed plantations — the cause of so many killings and enforced disappearances — could finally be settling down

Mexico

La secretaria de Seguridad Pública, Rosa Icela Rodríguez, hará entrega de las responsabilidades de la Guardia Nacional a la Secretaría de la Defensa Nacional el próximo 16 de septiembre durante el desfile militar

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Enviará una propuesta al Congreso, pese a que “los conservadores están en huelga y todo lo rechazan”

Members of the well-armed and brazen Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generacion blocked roads and lit fire to cabs, buses and stores in the states of Jalisco and Guanajuato

U.S.-Mexico Border

The agent approached the area and observed the man sustained a severe head wound from an apparent fall from the secondary barrier

Texas state troopers have taken custody of and returned to the border several thousand migrants who illegally crossed from Mexico, according to the governor’s office

737 migrants per day in the Darién Gap last month

Panama’s government published data on the number of people whom its migration authorities registered coming through the dangerous Darién Gap migration route, in the country’s far east along the Colombia border.

The 22,582 migrants who came through the Darién in July (737 per day) were the fourth-largest monthly total that Panama has ever measured. The top three were in August-October 2021, when a large number of Haitian migrants took this very dangerous route.

This year, migration of Haitian citizens is reduced, but a stunning number of Venezuelans are now passing through the Darién. Three-quarters of July’s migrants in this region (16,864, or 544 per day) came from Venezuela.

In January, at strong U.S. suggestion, Mexico established a visa requirement for Venezuelan citizens arriving in the country, which sharply reduced the number of Venezuelans arriving by air, many of whom were traveling to the U.S. border to seek asylum. U.S.-bound migration of Venezuelans fell in February, but is now recovering as migrants take the far more dangerous land route.

In the first 7 months of 2021, Panama registered 45,029 migrants in the Darién. The total for the first 7 months of 2022 is 71,012.

Some photos from yesterday’s presidential inauguration in Colombia

It was an honor to be in the audience at yesterday’s swearing-in of President Gustavo Petro and Vice President Francia Márquez. Here is a Flickr album of 40 photos taken with my little point-and-shoot camera, which has a decent zoom lens.

Some of them came out well. Feel free to use them with attribution.

And here’s me during the break in the action while we waited for them to bring out Bolívar’s sword.

Weekly U.S.-Mexico Border Update: August 5, 2022

With this series of weekly updates, WOLA seeks to cover the most important developments at the U.S.-Mexico border. See past weekly updates here.

Due to staff travel, WOLA will not publish a Weekly Border Update on August 12. The next update will appear on August 19.

This week:

  • As the Senate nears a vote on a big “Inflation Reduction Act,” a procedural quirk may provide Republican senators with an opportunity to add amendments curtailing the right to seek asylum, building more border walls, and otherwise hardening the border.
  • A month after the Supreme Court green-lighted the Biden administration’s efforts to end “Remain in Mexico,” some in the administration appear to favor keeping the program in place for now.
  • Confiscation of religious headgear, falsification of migration forms, post-midnight expulsions of small children,  a 33-hour detention of a 9-year-old U.S. citizen, and another fatal vehicle pursuit highlight continued concerns about human rights at CBP and Border Patrol.

“Vote-a-Rama” in U.S. Senate could include anti-migrant amendments

Before it leaves for its August recess, the U.S. Senate—which is divided evenly between 50 Democrats (including Democrat-leaning independents) and 50 Republicans—will debate and possibly approve the “Inflation Reduction Act,” a large budget bill reflecting Biden administration priorities, especially health care and climate provisions. The Senate’s complicated rules allow budget-only measures like this one to pass with a simple majority, avoiding the 60-vote “filibuster” threshold that prevents much legislation from being considered.

The resulting process, called “reconciliation,” requires that the bill be open to amendments on unrelated topics during a grueling, many-hours-long procedure that usually drags on until the pre-dawn hours of the next day. Called “vote-a-rama,” it offers an opportunity for senators from the body’s large Republican minority to introduce amendments that could restrict migration, codify obstacles to the right to seek asylum, or otherwise harden the U.S.-Mexico border.

Sen. James Lankford (R-Oklahoma), the principal sponsor of a bill that would keep in place Title 42, the pandemic provision that eliminates the right to seek asylum at the border, told Roll Call on August 2 “that Republicans have some immigration-related amendments ‘in the queue,’ though he declined to provide specifics.” Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-South Carolina) added that “he thought border security would come up during the vote-a-rama process.”

Amendments could seek to enshrine into permanent law the Trump administration’s Remain in Mexico program, which forces asylum seekers to await their U.S. court dates inside Mexico, or Title 42, empowering U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) to expel migrants indefinitely for public health reasons. Amendments could also seek to re-start construction of the Trump administration’s border wall, which Joe Biden halted when he assumed office in January 2021.

It is possible that some of these amendments to the spending bill could pass with a simple majority. They will have solid Republican support, and a small number of moderate and conservative Democrats, or Democrats facing tough re-election races in states where immigration is unpopular with swing voters, could end up voting for them as well. Several conservative or vulnerable Democrats are already co-sponsors of Lankford’s legislation that would keep Title 42 in place for months after the end of the U.S. COVID-19 emergency, which could last for years. (Currently Title 42, which the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had intended to lift on May 23, remains in place by order of a federal judge in Louisiana.)

Should such amendments succeed, however, the larger “Inflation Reduction Act” bill—which, if it passes, would do so with the slimmest of majorities—could be in jeopardy. The anti-migrant measures could lead progressive and pro-immigration Democratic senators to vote against the entire bill. If hardline “poison pill” border and immigration provisions added during “vote-a-rama” cause even a few of those senators to vote “no,” the bill will fail.

At the Washington Post, columnist Greg Sargent called the likelihood of Republican immigration amendments a “ticking time bomb still threatening the big climate deal.” Sargent cited an e-mailed statement from Sen. Robert Menendez (D-New Jersey), who warned that “Adoption of amendments that would end access to asylum or expand Trump’s border wall…will put reconciliation at risk.” This, Sargent said, “is a not-so-veiled suggestion that adoption of such poison pills might imperil the whole climate deal.” Menendez repeated this language on Twitter.

WOLA, one of many groups to issue statements opposing harmful “vote-a-rama” amendments, warned that such provisions could usher in “a harmful regime that could cause years of real human suffering.” A letter from 286 U.S. non-governmental organizations, including WOLA, urged senators to oppose any legislation that might “end asylum at the border”; “harm immigrants’ health, economic well-being, or education”; or “further bloat enforcement or militarize the border.”

As of Thursday morning (August 4), the timetable is not clear. The Senate’s Democratic leadership is awaiting word from the body’s parliamentarian on how the rules of debate will proceed, while trying to secure the support of the remaining Democratic holdout, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Arizona). “Several Democratic senators” cited by Roll Call said they expect the “vote-a-rama” process to begin “as soon as this weekend.”

“Remain in Mexico” is not over yet

With a 5-4 decision on June 30, the Supreme Court upheld the Biden administration’s ability to cancel the “Remain in Mexico” policy, an initiative begun by the Trump administration in 2019 that sent over 70,000 asylum-seeking migrants back across the border into Mexico to await their U.S. immigration hearings. Evidence that the Biden administration is preparing to end the policy, however, is scarce.

President Joe Biden began shutting down Remain in Mexico, which he regarded as cruel and ineffective, after taking office in January 2021, but a Texas federal judge in August 2021 ordered the White House to restart it. The program re-launched in December; since then, about 5,000 more migrants have been sent back to Mexico to await their U.S. hearings. The Supreme Court’s recent ruling overruled that August 2021 decision, giving a green light to “re-terminate” Remain in Mexico.

A month later, though, Remain in Mexico continues to operate, sending dozens of migrants back to Mexico each day.

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At Razón Pública: Iván Velásquez, ministro de Defensa: por qué y para qué

The Colombian publication Razón Pública today published a new piece by me about the defense and security challenges the country is facing, six days before it swears in a new president. That president will be the first leftist politician in Colombia’s modern history, and his choice to lead the Defense Ministry, Iván Velásquez, is one of Latin America’s best-known anti-corruption fighters.

I argue here that Velásquez is a good choice because he at least stands a credible chance of making progress on three urgent security priorities:

  • Combating corruption within the officer corps;
  • Increasing government presence in abandoned marginal rural areas where armed groups and coca thrive; and
  • Deeply reforming and civilianizing the police.

We’ll be adapting some of the language in this column for a WOLA commentary later this week, which will have an English version.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.