Adam Isacson

Defense, security, borders, migration, and human rights in Latin America and the United States. May not reflect my employer’s consensus view.

Archives

December 2022

Latin America Security-Related News: December 30, 2022

(Even more here)

December 30, 2022

Brazil

 Ana Ionova, In Brazil’s Amazon, Land Grabbers Scramble to Claim Disputed Indigenous Reserve (Mongabay*, December 30, 2022).

The Apyterewa Indigenous Territory, on the banks of the Xingu river in Pará, suffered accelerated illegal deforestation during the Bolsonaro government

* Fabiano Maisonnave, Brazil’s Lula Picks Amazon Defender for Environment Minister (Associated Press, *Associated Press*, December 30, 2022).

Marina Silva’s naming is a good sign for Amazon protection during Lula’s government

Colombia

 Las Noticias de la Paz y la Guerra en Colombia Que Marcaron el 2022 (El Espectador (Colombia)*, December 30, 2022).

A rundown of top peace and conflict stories in 2022, a very busy year for such stories in Colombia

Ecuador

 El 2022 Dejo un Record de Asesinatos en Ecuador: 4.450 Casos; Solo 308 Fueron Resueltos (El Universo (Ecuador)*, December 30, 2022).

Homicides in Ecuador came close to doubling from 2021 to 2022

Honduras

 Jorge Burgos, Viena Hernandez, Desplazamiento Forzado, la Amenaza Que Mantiene en Vilo a los Hondurenos y Hondurenas (Criterio (Honduras)*, December 30, 2022).

VIolence has internally displaced at least a quarter million Hondurans

Peru

“No Habra Impunidad”: Presidenta Boluarte Promete Investigar Muertes en Protestas (Reuters, *La Tercera (Chile)*, December 30, 2022).

Peru’s new president says that prosecutors will investigate security-force members who killed protesters amid the country’s political crisis

U.S.-Mexico Border

 Martha Pskowski, Texas National Guard Lines Section of Rio Grande in el Paso With Shipping Containers (The El Paso Times*, December 30, 2022).

Texas’s state government laid 10 shipping containers along the river in El Paso, just as it has done in Eagle Pass. The barrier does not block asylum seekers from the riverbank

Venezuela

 Maduro en la Salutacion a la Fanb: «Hay 4.5 Millones de Milicianos en el Pais» (Asociación Civil Control Ciudadano (Venezuela)*, December 30, 2022).

Maduro claims that about one-sixth of Venezuela’s population are members of a citizen militia

 Catherine Osborn, Will the World Ditch Its Punitive Approach to Venezuela in 2023? (Foreign Policy*, December 30, 2022).

Broad sanctions didn’t work in Cuba, and they’re not working in Venezuela, where Maduro is approaching 10 years in power

 En 2022 10.737 Personas Murieron por Causas Violentas en Venezuela, Dice Informe Anual del Ovv (Efecto Cocuyo (Venezuela)*, December 30, 2022).

The Venezuelan Violence Observatory’s 2022 homicide estimate points to a homicide rate over 40 per 100,000 residents

Latin America Security-Related News: December 29, 2022

(Even more here)

December 29, 2022

Colombia

 Laia Mataix Gomez, Colombia Views Development as Only Way to End Coca’s Reign (La Prensa Latina*, December 29, 2022).

Felipe Tascón, the new director of Colombia’s alternative development program, calls for rural “industrialization”

 Javier Patino C., El Nuevo ‘Round’ en la Lucha Contra las Drogas (Revista Cambio (Colombia)*, December 29, 2022).

The Petro government’s approach to narco-trafficking goes easy on small-scale coca growers and seeks to go after powerful traffickers

 Ana Leon, Un Diciembre en Saravena, Donde la Guerrilla Mato la Navidad (La Silla Vacia (Colombia)*, December 29, 2022).

Another bad year for security in Saravena, Arauca, despite the Petro government’s peace efforts, as fighting persists between the ELN and FARC dissidents

Cuba, Haiti, Mexico, Nicaragua, U.S.-Mexico Border

* Mica Rosenberg, Ted Hesson, U.S. Plans to Expand Border Expulsions for Cubans, Nicaraguans and Haitians (Reuters, *Reuters*, December 29, 2022).

The Biden administration is considering expelling Cuban, Nicaraguan, and Haitian asylum seekers back into Mexico using the undead Title 42 pandemic policy. No word from Mexico about whether it would take them

Mexico

 Jorge Martinez, Victor Hugo Michel, Capacitara Eu a Mexico en la Lucha Contra el Armamento 3d (Milenio (Mexico)*, December 29, 2022).

3D-printed weapons are becoming a problem for Mexico, and ATF will provide training in countering them

* Edgar H. Clemente, Maria Verza, Thriving Network of Fixers Preys on Migrants Crossing Mexico (Associated Press, *Associated Press*, December 29, 2022).

Detailed investigation of the middlemen who connect migrants with smugglers and corrupt officials, making transit to the U.S. border possible in exchange for hefty fees

* Elliot Spagat, Mexico Draws More Asylum-Seekers Despite Grisly Violence (Associated Press, *Associated Press*, December 29, 2022).

Mexico is a very dangerous place for migrants, but also the world’s number-three recipient of asylum applications

U.S.-Mexico Border

 Sandra Sanchez, Bathroom Crisis for Migrants at Makeshift Camp in Matamoros, Mexico (Border Report*, December 29, 2022).

3,000 people are now living in a new encampment in Matamoros, Mexico, across from Brownsville. There are two portable toilets

 Zolan Kanno-Youngs, ‘This Is Not About the Pandemic Anymore’: Public Health Law Is Embraced as Border Band-Aid (The New York Times*, December 29, 2022).

It’s a serious stretch to continue claiming that Title 42 is a public health policy

 James Dobbins, Miriam Jordan, Will Lifting Title 42 Cause a Border Crisis? It’s Already Here. (The New York Times*, December 29, 2022).

Title 42 has not reduced migration, which is near record levels

Venezuela

 Ana Vanessa Herrero, Karen Deyoung, Samantha Schmidt, End of an Era as Venezuela’s Opposition Moves to End Guaido Experiment (The Washington Post*, December 29, 2022).

As the Maduro regime strengthens, Venezuela’s opposition casts about for new tactics

Title 42 is still with us for many more months. Perhaps a year or more.

The Supreme Court just voted 5-4 to stay lower courts’ termination of the Title 42 pandemic order, which has expelled migrants from the U.S.-Mexico border 2.5 million times since March 2020, often without a chance to seek asylum. The Court is keeping the controversial measure in place while it decides whether Republican-run states can go ahead with a challenge.

Title 42 is not a public health measure. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found it unnecessary back on April 1. It’s an internationally condemned block to the right to seek protection, and it’s generating profound misery.

Migrant Encounters in Border Patrol’s El Paso Sector

For a second straight month, El Paso is the number-one sector for migrant encounters, among Border Patrol’s nine U.S.-Mexico border sectors. In March, El Paso was number five.

Nicaragua (dark gray, 15,305 migrants) was the number-one nationality in November. In October, number one was Venezuela (dark red, 17,807 migrants

Nationalities of migrants at the US-Mexico border, September to November

(For all countries whose citizens were encountered at least 1,000 times in a month):

  • Largest increases:
    • Ecuador +120%
    • Russia +110% (a record, Russia is now in the top 10)
    • Nicaragua +88% (a record)
    • Cuba +32% (second most in a month)
  • Largest decreases:
    • Venezuela -77% (a result of Title 42 being applied, as of mid-October, to expel Venezuelans into Mexico)
    • Brazil -59%
    • El Salvador -12%
    • Honduras -10%
  • Colombia is now #4.

34 members of Congress send a letter on Colombia

“We applaud the Biden Administration’s support for the historic 2016 Peace Accord, and we encourage the State Department and USAID to use the new government’s commitment to fully implement the accord as an opportunity to increase investment and reenergize areas of weak implementation.”

Read the full letter here.

Title 42 Must End. Here are Five Reasons Why

Just posted at wola.org, drafted by WOLA’s communications team with much input and edits from Maureen Meyer and me. As Title 42’s end date nears a Supreme Court showdown, here in 1,280 words are 5 reasons why it should terminate, as soon as possible.

Title 42 Must End. Here are Five Reasons Why (in <1,300 words):

  1. It’s illegal
  2. It wasn’t designed to protect public health
  3. It creates a discriminatory system
  4. It puts people in need of protection in further danger
  5. It undermines the U.S. ability to promote a protection-centered response to regional migration

Read the whole thing here.

WOLA Podcast: Peru’s Turmoil and “the Danger of a Much Deeper Crisis”

Perhaps you’ve been focused on the crisis at the border, the gang crackdown in El Salvador, Brazil’s presidential transition, human rights violations in Venezuela and Nicaragua, Colombia’s peace talks, or something else. But Peru is having a moment that, if unaddressed, could quickly devolve into something much worse.

I spoke to Jo-Marie Burt, a senior fellow at WOLA who closely follows Peru, to talk about what’s been happening. It’s very much worth a listen. Here’s the content of WOLA’s podcast landing page.

A deeply divided country with the world’s highest COVID death rate, Peru has suffered a series of political crises. After the latest, it is now governed by its seventh president in less than seven years.

December 2022 has seen a president’s failed attempt to dissolve Congress and subsequent jailing, and now large-scale protests met with a military crackdown. Divisions between the capital, Lima, and the rural, largely indigenous interior have been heightened by President Pedro Castillo’s exit. The military is playing a more active, openly political, role.

WOLA Senior Fellow Jo-Marie Burt explains how Peru got here, the political divisions, the role of the international community, and the dangerous—but avoidable—possible outcomes of the present crisis.

Download the podcast .mp3 file here. Listen to WOLA’s Latin America Today podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, iHeartRadio, or wherever you subscribe to podcasts. The main feed is here.

“The highest degree of irresponsibility”

“Buying planes in the midst of a crisis like the one we’re experiencing is the highest degree of irresponsibility for a leader,” candidate Gustavo Petro said in 2021.

Now, in a reversal, President Petro will purchase 16 fighter jets, choosing between the U.S. F-16, Sweden’s Gripen, and France’s Rafale.

Each will cost dozens of millions of dollars. Colombia has few threat scenarios for which fighter jets would be of use.

What will get cut to pay for this? Peace accord implementation?

Border Patrol’s “Green Line” flag

Both of these photos appeared on social media yesterday. Can’t the U.S. Border Patrol just use a regular American flag at its events, instead of this “green line” flag? At least when involving children?

I understand that the design is meant to honor fallen agents. But it also portrays Border Patrol as a line of defense protecting “good” people from “others.” Who is implied to be on the other side of that line?

Several days after January 6, 2021, I wrote about why I’m uncomfortable with the pro-police “Blue Line” flag, which appeared often that day even as rioters attacked police at the Capitol.

Title 42 didn’t deter migration

It’s so perplexing that people are convinced that Title 42 slowed migration, and that its lifting will be a major change.

Here’s what happened to single-adult migrant encounters at the US-Mexico border after Title 42 went into effect. Not a deterrent, to say the least.

Title 42 did not similarly increase child and family migration over what came before. But it didn’t reduce it, either.

The 4 countries whose citizens could be expelled across the land border into Mexico? Title 42 slowed growth in their migration, though it remained high. But citizens of all other countries surpassed them since last summer.

Title 42 did NOT reduce US-bound migration of non-Mexicans through Mexico, which has hit all-time record levels.

Northbound migration through Panama’s treacherous Darién Gap was rare before Title 42, which did nothing to deter it.

By increasing incentives not to turn themselves in to US authorities, Title 42 probably contributed to today’s horrific amount of migrant deaths on US soil along the border.

Title 42 had no impact on drugs crossing the border. Fentanyl, for instance, is almost entirely seized at ports of entry (blue) and checkpoints (brown), it appears in most cases by US citizens.

If Title 42 ends, a short-term increase is likely. Asylum seekers from 5 countries subject to land-border expulsions into Mexico will finally have a chance to seek protection, after being bottled up for 33 months.

But don’t believe for a moment that Title 42 ever reduced migration.

(P.S.: These and other charts are at WOLA’s Border Oversight page.)

Weekly U.S.-Mexico Border Update: December 16, 2022

With this series of weekly updates, WOLA seeks to cover the most important developments at the U.S.-Mexico border. See past weekly updates here.

Due to staff holiday absence, WOLA will not publish Border Updates on December 23 or 30. Updates will resume on January 6.

This week:

  • As the December 21 expiration date looms for Title 42, a court challenge seeks to preserve the pandemic expulsions policy and the Biden administration is considering other measures, from a “transit ban” to pressure on Mexico, to limit access to asylum. The result of the next few weeks may have long-term consequences for the right to seek asylum at the U.S.-Mexico border.
  • About 1,500 mostly Nicaraguan migrants—many of them victims of a mass kidnapping in northern Mexico—crossed from Ciudad Juárez to El Paso all at once on December 11. They are part of a sudden recent rise in migration to Border Patrol’s El Paso sector—which as recently as March was fifth of nine border sectors in migrant encounters—that is straining local services.
  • Arizona activists’ direct action appears to have halted the outgoing Republican governor’s effort to use thousands of shipping containers to fill a 10-mile border wall gap in an environmentally fragile national forest. The Biden administration had been slow to respond to the construction on federal land.

A pivotal moment for the future of asylum in the United States

December 21, the federal court-ordered expiration date for the “Title 42” pandemic expulsions policy, is drawing near. The coming days and weeks may set precedents with lasting consequences for the right, enshrined in U.S. law more than 40 years ago, to seek asylum at the U.S.-Mexico border.

In March 2020, at the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Trump administration invoked Section 265 of Title 42, U.S. Code, a quarantine provision, to swiftly expel undocumented migrants from the U.S.-Mexico border. It made no exception for asylum seekers, and Mexico agreed to accept expulsions of its own citizens, and citizens of three Central American countries, across the land border. The Biden administration continued to implement Title 42; both administrations have used it about 2.5 million times to expel migrants.

A Washington, DC federal district judge struck down Title 42 on November 15, finding its use “arbitrary and capricious,” but acceding to an administration request for five weeks to prepare for its end. As of December 21, the pandemic policy is to expire. Most observers expect a short-term increase in migration at the border, as many migrants who had been unable to request asylum upon reaching U.S. soil would once again be able to do so.

Republican state attorneys-general are seeking to challenge the November 15 ruling and preserve Title 42. Nineteen “red states” filed an emergency motion to the Washington, DC Circuit Court of Appeals asking it to suspend the District Court’s ruling and keep Title 42 in place past December 21. The states asked the Appeals Court to decide by December 16, and the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU), which led a coalition of groups whose suit successfully challenged Title 42, agreed.

If the Appeals Court denies their request, the states are asking it to declare an “administrative stay” keeping Title 42 in place for one more week, which would give the states time to appeal to the Supreme Court. It would then be up to the Supreme Court’s conservative majority whether to declare a stay, keeping Title 42 in place for the duration of appeals—which could last well over a year.

Amid the uncertainty, a December 14 Department of Homeland Security (DHS) document and media reports point to options that the Biden administration is weighing in the event that Title 42 expires on December 21. Internal discussions, and discussions with Mexico, are taking place as the migrant population increases.

The number of Customs and Border Protection (CBP) encounters with migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border exceeded 9,000 per day on three occasions during the first week and a half of December, a record-breaking pace, Axios reported, adding, “Officials now are preparing for the possibility of between 12,000 to 14,000 migrants attempting to cross every day.”

The December 14 DHS document warns of “a potential for a higher number of single adults and families to be provisionally released from DHS custody into communities without NGO or other sponsor support, pending the outcome of their immigration court proceedings.“ The chief of CBP’s Border Patrol component, Raúl Ortiz, echoed that warning of large-scale direct releases in a December 9 internal memo.

In order to accommodate the likely short-term migration increase, DHS is asking Congress for $3.4 billion over its 2023 budget request which, like the rest of the federal budget, still awaits legislative approval.

According to the DHS document, in a post-Title 42 climate the Department will increase use of Expedited Removal, a form of rapid deportation for those whom CBP personnel deem not to be asylum-seekers or otherwise needing protection. It will also seek to hold more single adult asylum seekers in detention, and refer for criminal prosecution “those whose conduct warrants it”—which according to DHS includes “noncitizens seeking to evade apprehension, repeat offenders, and those engaging in smuggling efforts.”

Press reports point to more severe steps that the administration is currently considering but has not yet decided to implement.

Axios reported that officials have internally circulated “a draft rule that would impose an asylum ban for roughly five months—initially.” It is not clear what legal basis such a rule might have.

NBC News reported that officials are “solidifying plans” to implement a so-called “transit ban,” refusing asylum applications from non-Mexican migrants who did not first attempt to seek asylum in other countries along their route to the United States. Unless they can prove that they require protection under the International Convention Against Torture, a higher standard than asylum, migrants “would have to show they first sought and were denied asylum in a country they passed through on their way to the U.S. border, four sources familiar with the planning say.”

Axios added that possible exceptions to the transit ban may apply to those who “are facing extreme circumstances, such as a medical emergency or other immediate, severe harm,” and perhaps for those who, under a new process, use CBP’s “CBP One” app to schedule an appointment at a port of entry (official border crossing).

The Trump administration sought to impose a similar severe limit on asylum in 2019; a federal court overturned it after the ACLU and other organizations filed suit. DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, asked by NBC News about this controversial proposal, “did not deny that a so-called transit ban was under consideration,” even as he called the U.S. asylum system “one of our crown jewels.”

NBC and the El Paso Times, covering Mayorkas’s December 13 visit to El Paso, reported that the administration is also considering a mechanism to allow migrants from Cuba, Haiti, and Nicaragua to apply online for humanitarian parole in the United States. The program would be similar to one created in October for up to 24,000 Venezuelans, approving two years’ parole with work permits for those  who hold passports and have someone to sponsor them in the United States. Many poorer and threatened Venezuelans are unable to meet those two criteria.

The administration is leaning on Mexico, meanwhile, “to ensure that the surge of migrants bused to Juárez, to the border, over the weekend doesn’t happen again,” the El Paso Times reported, referring to a group of about 1,500 migrants discussed in this update’s next section. Roberto Velasco, Mexico’s senior diplomat for North American affairs, told the Dallas Morning News that “sensitive” and “delicate” negotiations with his U.S. counterparts are “intense” and happening “round-the-clock.”

Read More

Latin America Security-Related News: December 13, 2022

(Even more here)

December 13, 2022

Colombia

 Natalia Romero Penuela, Irregularidades y Corrupcion en Unp: Los Casos en los Que No se Protegio a Lideres (El Espectador (Colombia)*, December 13, 2022).

Vehículos con blindajes falsos, funcionarios públicos que se aprovechan de las medidas de protección y la puerta giratoria entre la entidad y empresas privadas son los otros tres casos

 ¿Que Son los Acuerdos Humanitarios y por Que Importan en los Dialogos Con el Eln? (El Espectador (Colombia)*, December 13, 2022).

Uno de los líderes de una de esas zonas propone que la guerrilla apoye un Eje Humanitario, una idea que pretende crear refugios libres de actores armados donde pueda salvaguardarse la población

 Astrid Arellano, ‘Panic’ Sets in as Armed Groups Occupy, Deforest Colombian National Park (Mongabay*, December 13, 2022).

Authorities say illegal cattle ranching, coca growing and land-grabbing are driving deforestation in the park, much of it reportedly done at the hands of armed groups affiliated with FARC dissident factions

 Sair Buitrago, Informe de Onu Senala Que Este Ano Han Sido Asesinados 89 Lideres Sociales (El Tiempo (Colombia)*, December 13, 2022).

La organización intenta establecer el homicidio de otra líderes comunitarios

Colombia, Mexico, Venezuela

* Astrid Suarez, Jorge Rueda, Mexico to Host Next Round of Colombian Peace Talks (Associated Press, *Associated Press*, December 13, 2022).

On Monday, delegates from Petro’s government and the ELN published a statement in which they announced they had agreed on a plan to provide humanitarian relief to rebel fighters in Colombian prisons and also to villages in two regions of Colombia

Cuba

 David C Adams, Autoridades Reportan un Aumento Masivo de Balseros Cubanos en Aguas de Florida (Univision*, December 13, 2022).

Cada vez aparecen más balsas cubanas en aguas estadounidenses debido a la crisis económica en Cuba

El Salvador

 Masacre en el el Mozote: 41 Anos Sin Justicia (Expediente Publico (Honduras)*, December 13, 2022).

Sobrevivientes de los asesinatos en el caserío El Mozote y zona aledañas siguen esperando un juicio contra el alto mando castrense

 Anna-Cat Brigida , El Salvador Crackdown Could Prompt Gangs to ‘Adapt and Reshuffle’ (Al Jazeera*, December 13, 2022).

At least 90 people have died in state custody since March, according to government statistics

Mexico

 Mary Beth Sheridan, Nick Miroff, They Call Him the Eagle: How the U.S. Lost a Key Ally in Mexico as Fentanyl Took Off (The Washington Post*, December 13, 2022).

The untold story of America’s most dependable drug war ally and how the drug war in Mexico fell apart as a river of synthetic drugs flooded the United States

 Cierra Inm Espacio en Tapanatepec y Mantiene la Asistencia a Personas Migrantes (Instituto Nacional de Migración (Mexico)*, December 13, 2022).

El comisionado aclaró que se seguirá proporcionando apoyo en otras instalaciones del instituto a quienes transitan en contexto de migración

Peru

 Adriana Leon, Patrick J. Mcdonnell, Tracy Wilkinson, In Peru, President’s Ouster Just Latest Manifestation of Extreme Political Turmoil (The Los Angeles Times*, December 13, 2022).

While democratic elections are held regularly in Peru, critics say that the results often have more to do with settling scores and politicians getting rich than installing effective governments

 Juan Diego Quesada, La Ira de los Manifestantes Pone a Prueba la Resistencia de la Nueva Presidenta de Peru (El Pais (Spain)*, December 13, 2022).

La muchedumbre ha cortado carreteras, dos aeropuertos y se enfrenta a las autoridades en distintos puntos del país

U.S.-Mexico Border

 Mark Scialla, ‘Hurting People’: The ‘Cover-Up Teams’ Operating on the Us Border (Al Jazeera*, December 13, 2022).

When US Border Patrol pursuits of migrant vehicles have led to accidents, an opaque unit has been among those responding

 Eileen Sullivan, J. David Goodman, Simon Romero, Mass Migrant Crossing Floods Texas Border Facilities (The New York Times*, December 13, 2022).

The arrival of up to 1,000 migrants, the latest big group to have crossed the border, was one of the largest single crossings in recent years in West Texas

 Lauren Villagran, Asylum Seekers Cross en Masse at el Paso-Juarez Border as Title 42 Nears End (The El Paso Times*, December 13, 2022).

“In November, our demographics changed to Nicaraguans. You see the migrants staging and waiting to be transferred”

 Veronica Martinez, Migrantes Desbordan la Frontera Entre Ciudad Juarez y el Paso (La Verdad (Ciudad Juarez Mexico)*, December 13, 2022).

Un cruce masivo de personas migrantes registró Estados Unidos por Ciudad Juárez este domingo, más de mil fueron personas que arribaron a esta frontera en caravana desde el sur del país

Latin America Security-Related News: November 28 – December 12, 2022

(Even more here)

December 12, 2022

Western Hemisphere Regional

 Josefina Salomon, Kate Keelan, 2022, a Year of Human Rights: ‘Despite the Long List of Challenges, There Are Opportunities’ (Washington Office on Latin America*, December 12, 2022).

WOLA’s president, Carolina Jiménez Sandoval, shared reflections on the human rights agenda in the Americas and the challenges to come in 2023

Bolivia, Chile

 Chile Plantea Otra Relacion Con Bolivia, Pero Ven Que al Pais Le Falta Mas Que Voluntad (El Deber (Bolivia)*, December 12, 2022).

Analistas y políticos dicen que Bolivia tiene dos problemas: no maneja una política exterior y no tiene la capacidad profesional para llevar adelante un diálogo exitoso. Desde el MAS responden que sí la tienen

Colombia

 Mads Nissen, Colombia, Cocaine and the Lost War (Financial Times (UK)*, December 12, 2022).

This year, I travelled the country to chronicle the drug trade in all its aspects

 Santiago Torrado, Patricia Tobon Yagari: “Encontramos un Rezago Monumental en el Cumplimiento a las Victimas” (El Pais (Spain)*, December 12, 2022).

La directora de la Unidad para las Víctimas, una indígena embera, considera que llevar el Estado a los territorios olvidados es uno de los mayores retos del Gobierno

 Jep Pide Sancion para 12 Militares por Falsos Positivos Cometidos en Cesar (El Espectador (Colombia)*, December 12, 2022).

Esta vez decidió que 12 de los 15 integrantes del Batallón La Popa del Ejército que fueron imputados por matar a civiles y presentarlos como bajas en combate sean postulados para imponerles sanciones

 Daniela Osorio Zuluaga, Hoy Cierra el Primer Ciclo de Negociaciones: ¿el Eln Cesara Hostilidades? (El Colombiano (Medellin Colombia)*, December 12, 2022).

Este lunes se cierra el primer ciclo de conversaciones. Pizarro cuenta en qué ha avanzado la mesa

 Gerardo Reyes, Colombia Mantiene Bajo Hermetismo Investigacion de la Violacion de una Nina Indigena por un Soldado de Ee. Uu. (Univision*, December 12, 2022).

La fiscalía colombiana investiga el caso de la niña de 10 años que dio a luz en 2019 a un bebé en el hospital de San José del Guaviare, capital del departamento amazónico de Guaviare

 Eeuu y Colombia Acuerdan Conferencia para Abordar Migracion Venezolana por el Darien (Tal Cual (Venezuela)*, December 12, 2022).

Tanto Estados Unidos como Colombia manifiestan su preocupación en torno al incremento del flujo migratorio a través del Darién durante 2022

 Jerson Ortiz, Santiago Rodriguez Alvarez, Petrismo Avanza en Democratizar la Policia y Arrebatarle un Nicho a la Derecha (La Silla Vacia (Colombia)*, December 12, 2022).

Es una iniciativa que recoge una promesa de campaña del presidente Gustavo Petro para que “cualquier patrullero pueda llegar a ser General”

Colombia, Venezuela

 Fundaredes: Hay Presencia de Grupos Armados en el 75% de las Escuelas Fronterizas (Tal Cual (Venezuela)*, December 12, 2022).

La ausencia de las autoridades gubernamentales deja espacio para que grupos armados en la frontera interrumpan las actividades escolares de las instituciones educativas en la frontera

Cuba

 Ed Augustin, Frances Robles, ‘Cuba Is Depopulating’: Largest Exodus Yet Threatens Country’s Future (The New York Times*, December 12, 2022).

The pandemic and tougher U.S. sanctions have decimated Cuba’s economy, prompting the biggest migration since Fidel Castro rose to power

Ecuador

 Readout of Secretary Alejandro N. Mayorkas Trip to Quito, Ecuador (Department of Homeland Security*, December 12, 2022).

Secretary Mayorkas’s visits follow the U.S.-hosted Summit of the Americas in June and the multinational endorsement of the Los Angeles Declaration on Migration and Protection, which included Colombia and Ecuador among its signatories

Guatemala

 Raul Barreno Castillo, Guerra Contra las Pandillas: Guatemala Refuerza Vigilancia en Fronteras Con Honduras y el Salvador, Pero el Mayor Desafio Es la Migracion Masiva (Prensa Libre (Guatemala)*, December 12, 2022).

Los poblados de Guatemala cercanos a Honduras y El Salvador aún no perciben el peligro que representa la lucha contra las pandillas, pero analistas consideran que el tema debe tomarse con seriedad

 Guatemala Es “Irresponsable” Con Migrantes Venezolanos, Afirma Sacerdote Que Dirige la Casa del Migrante (EFE, *Prensa Libre (Guatemala), December 12, 2022).

“Estamos hablando de un filtro a servicio de Estados Unidos”, añadió el sacerdote, para describir la postura tomada por Guatemala y México

Honduras

 Carlos Barrera, Roman Gressier, Honduran State of Exception Expands Bukele’s Echo in the Region (El Faro (El Salvador)*, December 12, 2022).

The same day Nayib Bukele staged a military siege of the gang bastion Soyapango, Xiomara Castro decreed a state of exception before deploying police and military in 162 of Honduras’ most marginalized urban communities

Mexico

 Rocio Gallegos, Veronica Martinez, Chihuahua Cierra Paso a Caravana de Migrantes y Pide su Repatriacion (La Verdad (Ciudad Juarez Mexico)*, December 12, 2022).

Migrantes de diferentes nacionalidades en ruta hacia Estados Unidos están varados en el municipio de Jiménez, al sur de Chihuahua

Peru

 Franklin Briceno, Regina Garcia Cano, New Peru President Appears With Military to Cement Power (Associated Press, *Associated Press, December 12, 2022).

Peru’s first female president appeared in a military ceremony on national television on Friday in her first official event as head of state, an attempt to cement her hold on power

Read More

Latin America-related events online and in Washington this week

Monday, December 12

  • 3:00-4:30 at csis.org: Defending Transparency and Advancing Anticorruption in the Western Hemisphere (RSVP required).

Tuesday, December 13

Wednesday, December 14

  • 1:30-3:00 at wilsoncenter.org: 200 Years of U.S.-Mexico Bilateral Relations: An Ambassadorial Perspective (RSVP required).

Thursday, December 15

  • 1:00-2:00 at atlanticcouncil.org: US-Mexico ties at the bicentennial and weeks from NALS (RSVP required).

Video en español de hoy

Tuve una muy interesante discusión hoy, aquí en Washington en el programa Foro Interamericano de la Voz de América, con Néstor Osuna, el ministro de justicia de #Colombia. Hablamos sobre la política antidrogas y la política exterior de EEUU.

Weekly U.S.-Mexico Border Update: December 9, 2022

With this series of weekly updates, WOLA seeks to cover the most important developments at the U.S.-Mexico border. See past weekly updates here.

This week:

  • The Title 42 pandemic expulsions authority is scheduled to terminate in less than two weeks, in accordance with a November court ruling. A Biden administration appeal will not change that date, but a challenge from Republican state governments might. The Senate may soon consider a still-unpublished bill that could prolong Title 42 for a year in exchange for giving legal status to “Dreamers.” Meanwhile, preparations for a post-Title 42 reality continue: shelters are anticipating increased populations, and the Biden administration is considering other means to block or limit asylum seekers, including something similar to the Trump-era “transit ban.”
  • Migration through Panama’s Darién Gap declined by 72 percent from October to November. The main reason appears to be an October expansion of Title 42 that made it impossible for citizens of Venezuela to pursue asylum in the United States. The number of Venezuelan citizens in the Darién dropped by 98 percent.
  • In November, Mexico’s asylum system received its largest monthly number of applications in a year. Applications from citizens of Venezuela, now denied the chance to seek protection in the United States, increased by 27 percent over October.

What’s next after Title 42, if it ends on December 21

It is now less than two weeks from December 21, when, in accordance with a November 15 court ruling, the Title 42 pandemic authority is to end. Title 42 has expelled about 2.5 million people without a chance to seek asylum since the Trump administration first implemented it in March 2020.

The administration appeals

On December 7, the Biden administration’s Justice Department informed D.C. District Judge Emmet Sullivan of its intent to appeal Sullivan’s November 15 ruling. The administration, however, is not seeking to prolong the current Title 42 order. The Justice Department filing does not ask for Judge Sullivan’s ruling to be paused: its intent appears to be to preserve the executive branch’s future ability to employ Title 42 to expel migrants for public health reasons.

The Justice Department stated that it would seek to put this case on hold while the U.S. Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals (Louisiana and Texas) considers its appeal of another case: a Louisiana district court’s decision that had prevented the Biden administration from ending Title 42 in May 2022. The Louisiana decision had taken issue with the administration’s process for terminating Title 42, which it had planned to end on May 23. Judge Sullivan’s decision struck down the use of Title 42 entirely.

Meanwhile, 19 Republican state governments are asking Judge Sullivan to suspend his ruling. If he does not do so—as appears likely—the states could seek to have the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals and the Supreme Court hear the case. Should those higher courts agree to do so, and should they decide to stay (suspend) Judge Sullivan’s decision while appeals proceed, then Title 42 would remain in place for some time after December 21.

While the legal maneuvering proceeds, a Biden administration official told CBS News that the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) “continues to charge full speed ahead in preparing for Title 42 to lift on December 21.”

(For more background on this confusing narrative, see the timeline of major Title 42 developments at the end of this section.)

Possible legislation

On December 5, the Washington Post’s Greg Sargent revealed that Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Arizona) and Sen. Thom Tillis (R-North Carolina) were negotiating a bipartisan bill to resolve the situation of “Dreamers”—up to 2 million undocumented people who were brought to the United States as children and know no life in any other country.

The current legislative session, which ends on December 31, could be the last chance to find a legal solution for Dreamers. The House of Representatives elected in November will have a slight Republican majority, and its leadership has indicated fierce opposition to any softening of immigration policy. The Obama administration executive order that had found a temporary solution for about 700,000 Dreamers (Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, DACA) was ruled illegal by a Texas judge in 2021, and the future of appeals leading to the conservative U.S. Supreme Court appears grim.

To entice Republicans to vote for a legal status for Dreamers, the Sinema-Tillis legislation, Sargent and others report, might:

  • increase resources for migrant processing,
  • hire more border agents,
  • increase prosecutions of improper border crossers,
  • quickly remove those who don’t qualify for asylum, and—most controversially—
  • extend Title 42 expulsions for at least another year.

Sen. Bob Menendez (D-New Jersey) has expressed “serious concerns” about the proposed bill, especially the proposal to prolong Title 42, which could cause hundreds of thousands more expulsions of migrants, many of them asylum seekers. A statement from several non-governmental groups (including WOLA) under the #WelcomeWithDignity campaign opposes “a shocking proposal to extend Title 42 for another year and additional proposals that would indefinitely curtail asylum rights.”

To move forward under Senate rules (the filibuster), this bill would require 60 senators to vote to end debate and allow a vote. Assuming that all 50 Democrats back this bill—far from certain, due to progressives’ discomfort with the Title 42 extension—Sinema and Tillis would need to convince 10 Republicans to allow it to come to a vote. That may prove very difficult, as Congress approaches the final two or three weeks of its session still needing to pass the entire 2023 federal budget and the Defense Department’s authorization.

On December 8, Sen. Tillis indicated that he and Sen. Sinema expect to finalize their bill language by Friday, December 9.

Preparations for an increase in migration

It is reasonable to expect protection-seeking migration to increase at the border after December 21, if Title 42 does truly end on that date. Data, presumably from CBP, leaked to Fox News point to 207,000 migrant encounters at the border in November, which is similar to October (it is not clear whether the number includes migrants encountered at ports of entry).

Read More

Timeline of major Title 42 developments

This (likely with a bit more editing/polish) will be in tomorrow’s WOLA Border Update, but it’s also useful as a standalone post:

  • March 2020: The Trump administration’s Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) imposed the measure, at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, as U.S. borders closed to most travel. Citing the difficulty of detaining asylum seekers in congregate settings where viruses could spread, the order—drafted by hardline immigration opponents in the Trump White House, citing an obscure 1940s quarantine law—suspended the right to seek asylum at the U.S.-Mexico border. It ordered CBP to block asylum seekers from approaching ports of entry (official border crossings) and to quickly expel all migrants, regardless of protection needs, apprehended elsewhere. It was later revealed that CDC officials opposed this application of Title 42, but bent under intense political pressure. Mexico agreed to accept land-border expulsions of 4 countries’ citizens: its own, plus those of El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras.
  • November 2020: D.C. District Court Judge Emmet Sullivan ruled that Title 42 could not be used to expel unaccompanied child migrants. This decision was overturned on appeal in January 2021, just before Joe Biden’s inauguration, but the Biden administration has chosen not to expel non-Mexican unaccompanied children. The Trump administration had expelled unaccompanied kids 15,863 times between March and November 2020.
  • January 2021: The Biden administration kept the Title 42 measure in place. Of all Title 42 expulsions since March 2020, at least 81 percent have taken place since Joe Biden’s inauguration.
  • August 2021: After negotiations with the Biden administration broke down, the ACLU and other organizations resumed litigation challenging Title 42 in D.C. District Court.
  • September 2021: Following a large-scale arrival of Haitian migrants in Del Rio, Texas— notorious for disturbing images of Border Patrol agents on horseback charging at migrants—the Biden administration began a large-scale campaign of aerial expulsions back to Haiti. Witness at the Border would count 229 expulsion flights to Port-au-Prince and Cap-Haïtien between September 2021 and May 2022.
  • March 2022: The CDC decided that the pandemic’s reduced intensity made it possible to end Title 42 expulsions. The Biden administration set May 23, 2022 as Title 42’s termination date.
  • April 2022: Human Rights First reported tracking “at least 10,250 reports of murder, kidnapping, rape, torture and other violent attacks against migrants and asylum seekers blocked in or expelled to Mexico due to Title 42 since the Biden administration took office.”
  • May 2022: Mexico agreed to accept land-border expulsions of Cubans and Nicaraguans for a few weeks, until May 23.
  • May 2022: In response to a lawsuit brought by Republican state attorneys-general, Louisiana Federal District Court Judge Robert Summerhays issued a preliminary injunction blocking the Biden administration from lifting Title 42. The May 23 deadline was revoked, and expulsions continued.
  • August 2022: For the first time ever, migrants from Mexico, El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras comprised less than half of the population of migrants encountered at the U.S.-Mexico border. This was largely because migrants from these countries faced a very high probability of Title 42 expulsion, but citizens of all other countries (especially Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela, and Colombia) were more difficult for the U.S. government to expel; most were being released into the U.S. interior.
  • October 2022: The U.S. and Mexican governments announced that Mexico has agreed to accept land-border expulsions of citizens of Venezuela.
  • November 2022: In the case (Huisha-Huisha vs. Mayorkas) brought by the ACLU and other organizations, Judge Emmet Sullivan struck down Title 42. He acceded to a Biden administration request for five weeks in which to wind down the policy. Republican state attorneys general filed a motion to allow them to intervene in the suit.

“Preparing for US War with China”

The latest edition of the US Air Force Air War College’s Journal of the Americas—which I hope will invite other genders to contribute next time—has six articles, and two of them are about China. One, ominously titled “Preparing for US War with China—2025–2032.”

Soyapango, El Salvador

From El Salvador’s Gato Encerrado, reporting on the government’s encirclement of Soyapango, a poor San Salvador suburb, with 8,500 soldiers (about 1/3 of El Salvador’s military) and 1,500 police. The troops and cops are doing sweeps to arrest people whom they believe are gang members.

Translated caption of this photo, credited to Melissa Paises: “According to the human rights organization Cristosal, the majority of the more than 56,000 people detained under the emergency regime have been young men between the ages of 18 and 30, who were detained simply for their appearance or for living in stigmatized areas such as Soyapango.”

65+ free-to-use photos of border surveillance tech

The Electronic Frontier Foundation (EFF) has posted and shared, under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 license, more than 65 photos of camera towers, aerostats, and other surveillance technologies deployed along the border. Some of this tech has “negative impacts for human rights or the civil liberties of those who live in the borderlands,” EFF notes.

Here’s one labeled “An extreme close-up shot of the lens of an Integrated Fixed Tower (IFT) camera on Coronado Peak, Cochise County, AZ”:

Denying the right to asylum led to fewer asylum seekers transiting Panama’s Darién Gap

Panama just posted November records of migration through the dangerous Darién Gap jungles that straddle its border with Colombia. The result is unsurprising. They show that denying protection to people, even as it violates international human rights standards, will keep them from trying to come, at least in the short term.

Migration through the Darién plummeted 72 percent from October to November. This was led by a 98 percent drop in migration from Venezuela.

That fewer people risked crossing through the Darién Gap should be good news: hundreds each year die, are attacked, and suffer sexual violence along this ungoverned 60-mile walk. But the reason for the decline is not a happy one.

On October 12, the U.S. and Mexican governments announced that any Venezuelan citizens encountered at the U.S.-Mexico border would be swiftly expelled back into Mexico, without even affording them the chance to seek asylum. That denial of asylum is usually illegal, but the U.S. government invoked the Title 42 pandemic authority, in place since March 2020. On November 15, a U.S. federal judge struck down Title 42, so the expulsions should stop by December 21.

For now, though, the Title 42 expansion forced a pause in U.S.-bound migration through the Darién Gap. For unclear reasons, November also saw declines in migration of citizens from Peru (-92%), Colombia (-87%), Cameroon (-44%), Afghanistan (-31%), the Dominican Republic (-30%), and Ecuador (-25%). Other countries increased, though: Nigeria (+56%), China (+38%), Haiti (+24%), India (+20), and Bangladesh (+18%).

Despite the November decline, 2022 is already the busiest year for migration in the history of the Darién Gap, which until recently was viewed as nearly impenetrable.

Asylum requests are increasing again in Mexico’s system

13,217 migrants applied for asylum in Mexico’s system in November 2022, the most in a month since November 2021, according to the Mexican government’s Refugee Aid Commission (COMAR). November’s asylum requests increased 15 percent over October, and 47 percent over September.

From October to November, COMAR received the largest increase in applications from citizens of Venezuela—27 percent—though the number of Venezuelan applicants was in second place behind that of citizens of Honduras. Venezuela’s applications almost certainly increased because, after the U.S. and Mexican governments began applying Title 42 and expelling Venezuelans into Mexico on October 12, Venezuelan citizens could no longer seek protection in the United States.

All nationalities measured increases in asylum applications from October to November:

  • Venezuela: +27%
  • Haiti: +17%
  • Dominican Republic: +14%
  • Colombia: +12%
  • Honduras: +12%
  • El Salvador: +12%
  • Others: +12%
  • Brazil: +12%
  • Guatemala: +12%
  • Cuba: +11%
  • Nicaragua: +5%

Despite what you hear from some U.S. politicians and media outlets, the Americas’ ongoing migration event is not just a US-Mexico border phenomenon. People are fleeing everywhere. Colombia and others are assimilating millions of Venezuelans. Costa Rica is doing the same with Nicaraguans. And here’s Mexico.

Mexico’s use of the military for migration missions

In the past month or two, Mexico again increased the number of soldiers, marines, and national guardsmen assigned to border and migration duties. The most recent count, as of November 21, was 31,777 individual military personnel.

The numbers come from “security reports” periodically presented at President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s morning press conferences, and uploaded to the Mexican Presidency’s website:

On proposed legislation to protect “Dreamers” by sacrificing asylum seekers

My bit of a joint statement released by the #WelcomeWithDignity Campaign:

“It’s good to finally see some legislative movement to get Dreamers out of the cruel limbo in which they’re forced to live,” said Adam Isacson, Director for Defense Oversight at the Washington Office on Latin America. “But you’ve probably heard about the ‘Trolley Problem,’ an ethical thought experiment in which a person is forced to choose between two outcomes, both of which do severe harm to other human beings.

“This legislation creates a trolley problem where none need exist. It would preserve Title 42 for a year, condemning a year’s worth of asylum seekers to summary expulsion; many would face death, torture, gender-based violence, and other harm. The other choice—failing to pass this legislation—would devastate the lives of hundreds of thousands of Dreamers, who are our fellow Americans.

“This is a false dilemma, a completely unnecessary choice. It should be just as possible to give Dreamers the relief they deserve, while fixing our rickety asylum system so that it can meet the demands of an era of historic worldwide migration. There is no need to harm one population to help another.”

Coca in Mexico

During the López Obrador government (since December 2018), Mexican forces have eradicated 33.6 hectares of coca, according to the country’s presidency.

(Colombia, the most energetic eradicator, reported destroying 103,000 hectares in 2021 and nearly 60,000 in 2022 through October.)

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