Adam Isacson

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Developments

Following the Senate’s February 7 rejection of a spending bill with negotiated language limiting asylum access, the majority-Democratic Senate leadership introduced a new spending bill with no border or migration content at all, except for fentanyl-related provisions. The new bill contains just foreign aid to Ukraine, Israel, and other countries, without the earlier bill’s $20 billion in border spending and changes to immigration law.

This new bill cleared an initial hurdle on February 8 despite the objections of some Republicans holding out for tough border and migration language: by a 67-32 vote, senators cleared it for debate. (That’s the stage at which the earlier bill with the “border deal” language failed on February 7, by a 49-50 vote.)

• Madeline Halpert, “Senate Advances Aid Package for Ukraine and Israel” (BBC (UK), February 8, 2024).
• Burgess Everett, Ursula Perano, “The Senate Gop Ends Up Exactly Where It Started on Foreign Aid” (Politico, February 8, 2024).

This may not be the end of the story for border legislation, though. Democratic and Republican Senate leaders are negotiating Republican amendments that may be brought to the chamber’s floor during the next few days’ debate. (The Senate is postponing the beginning of a two-week recess and working through the weekend.)

• “#Welcomewithdignity @Welcomewdignity on Twitter” (Twitter, February 8, 2024).

Those amendments could include some or all of the Senate negotiators’ “border deal” language limiting asylum access; some or all of H.R. 2, a hardline bill thoroughly gutting asylum that passed the Republican-majority House of Representatives last May without a single Democratic vote; or some hybrid of the “border deal” and H.R. 2.

Those amendments would be unlikely to pass: as they are not germane to what is now a bill with no border or migration content, they would need 60 votes to win approval.

• “Andrew Desiderio @Andrewdesiderio on Twitter” (Twitter, February 8, 2024).

Putting off the start of a two-week recess, the Senate convenes at mid-day today and could vote on a “motion to proceed” after 7:00pm. Amid a confusing set of possible paths guided by arcane procedural maneuvers, senators might find themselves in a heated floor debate during Sunday’s Super Bowl.

• “Burgess Everett @Burgessev on Twitter” (Twitter, February 8, 2024).
• “Andrew Desiderio @Andrewdesiderio on Twitter” (Twitter, February 8, 2024).
• “Burgess Everett @Burgessev on Twitter” (Twitter, February 8, 2024).

As preliminary numbers show a 50 percent drop in migration along the U.S.-Mexico border, CBS News noted that Arizona and California now make up 60 percent of recent weeks’ Border Patrol apprehensions. In fiscal year 2023 those states made up 41 percent of Border Patrol apprehensions.

• Camilo Montoya-Galvez, “Migrant Crossings Fall Sharply Along Texas Border, Shifting to Arizona and California” (CBS News, February 8, 2024).

The conservative Daily Caller reported on Border Patrol agents’ February 6 apprehension of a migrant from Colombia who was identified as having terrorist ties because of prior membership in the United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (AUC) paramilitary group, which collaborated with the country’s U.S.-backed military, disbanded in 2006, and was removed from the State Department’s list of foreign terrorist organizations in 2014.

CBP does not report the nationalities of apprehended migrants who show up on the Department of Homeland Security’s (DHS) Terrorist Screening Data Set, but recent years’ increase coincides with growth in migration from Colombia, a country that has had five groups on the terrorist list this century, of which the largest two have long since demobilized.

• Jennie Taer, “Exclusive: Illegal Immigrant Admits Past Terrorism Ties After Crossing Border, Memo Shows” (Daily Caller, February 8, 2024).

Analyses and Feature Stories

“Many people in Ciudad Juárez and other parts of the border have reported waiting up to three months to receive an appointment through the [CBP One] application, while others receive it in a matter of days or weeks,” reported Verónica Martínez of the Ciudad Juárez-based La Verdad. Martínez’s feature documented many challenges that asylum seekers face while trying to use the app.

• Veronica Martinez, “Cuando los Cruces Ilegales a Estados Unidos Superan las Citas por Cbp One” (La Verdad (Ciudad Juarez Mexico), February 8, 2024).

A Semafor analysis examined whether hardline Trump-era policies, especially “Remain in Mexico,” succeeded in reducing migration, as their backers claim. Arrivals of asylum seekers did fall in the months after June 2019, when Trump ramped up “Remain in Mexico,” but that makes it one of many attempted crackdowns on asylum-seeking migration over the past 10 years that had only short-term effects. Whether “Remain in Mexico” would have joined that list of policies with temporary effects is unknown, as the pandemic and Title 42 policy came nine months after June 2019, shutting the U.S. border.

• Jordan Weissmann, Joseph Zeballos-Roig, “Did Trump Really Fix the Border? It’s Complicated.” (Semafor, February 8, 2024).

“Right now, with the patience of the American public running thin, both Republicans and Democrats seem more interested in pursuing policies that will help them look tough on the border in an election year, rather than a comprehensive approach to fixing the problem,” read a “seven questions” explainer at Vox.

• Abdallah Fayyad, Andrew Prokop, Nicole Narea, “7 Questions About Migration and the Us-Mexico Border, Answered” (Vox, February 9, 2024).

“In 1996 and 2006, Congress passed the last significant border and immigration bills to date. Both were hawkish messages to voters in election years, and both have become infamous for their unintended consequences,” wrote Rafael Bernal and Saul Elbein at The Hill.

• Rafael Bernal, Saul Elbein, “How the Federal Government Created the Immigration Crisis That Now Bedevils It” (The Hill, February 8, 2024).

At the Atlantic, Ronald Brownstein looked at Republican candidate Donald Trump’s plan to deploy National Guard soldiers from Republican-leaning states into Democratic-leaning states to carry out what Trump calls “the Largest Domestic Deportation Operation in History.”

• Ronald Brownstein, “Trump’s ‘Knock on the Door’” (The Atlantic, February 8, 2024).

Covering last weekend’s right-wing “convoy” rally near Eagle Pass, Texas, the New Yorker’s Rachel Monroe concluded that Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s (R) “insurrection-adjacent rhetoric seems to have breathed new energy into a movement that was thrown off by the events of January 6th.”

• Rachel Monroe, “Greg Abbott’s Anti-Migrant Standoff at the Border” (The New Yorker, February 8, 2024).

On the Right

• John B. Judis, “How Biden Could Act on the Border, and Help Himself in November” (The New York Times, February 9, 2024).
• Phil Boas, “Kyrsten Sinema’s Border Deal Blew Up and Now She’s Angry. Oh, Spare Me.” (The Arizona Republic, February 8, 2024).

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Developments

A deal that took nearly three months to negotiate went down in defeat yesterday in the U.S. Senate, just three days after its text became public. In a vote that needed 60 senators to agree to begin consideration of the Biden administration’s $118 billion request for spending on Ukraine and Israel aid, border items, and other priorities, only 49 voted in favor, with 50 opposed.

• Ursula Perano, “Senate Republicans Officially Block Foreign Aid Bill With Border Changes” (Politico, February 7, 2024).
• Eric Katz, “Senate Rejects Border-Related Federal Hiring Surge After Republicans Turn on Deal” (Government Executive, February 7, 2024).
• Caroline Coudriet, “Border Supplemental Package Stalls in Senate” (Roll Call, February 7, 2024).

In October, congressional Republicans refused to allow the spending measure to move forward unless it included language changing U.S. law to make it harder for migrants to access asylum at the U.S.-Mexico border. A group of senators launched negotiations before Thanksgiving, coming up with a set of measures that outraged both migrants’ rights defenders and progressive Democrats who feared people would be harmed, and conservative Republicans who wanted it to go further.

In the end, only four Republicans voted to begin debating the bill: Susan Collins of Maine, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Mitt Romney of Utah, and the Republicans’ chief negotiator, James Lankford of Oklahoma. Even Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky), who had vocally backed Lankford’s negotiating effort, voted “no.” Five Democrats voted “no.” (Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-New York) had to change his vote to “no” for procedural reasons allowing a reconsideration of the bill.) They were Ed Markey and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Bob Menendez of New Jersey, Alex Padilla of California, and Bernie Sanders (I) of Vermont, who opposed the unconditional Israel aid in the bill.

• Benjamin Wermund, “Cruz, Cornyn Help Sink Border Bill Republicans Had Long Demanded” (The Dallas Morning News, February 7, 2024).
• Rep. Nanette Barragan (D-California), Sen. Alex Padilla (D-California), “For Gop on Border, Crisis Sells Better Than Compromise” (The Hill, February 7, 2024).

As it nears a two-week recess, the Senate is paralyzed as Republicans are divided about whether to consider a spending bill without the asylum-restrictions deal attached to it, which is what Democrats had initially sought. One possible outcome for considering such a “clean” bill might be a debate process that allows votes on Republican-sponsored amendments seeking to limit asylum and perhaps other legal migration pathways.

Senate Republicans plan to meet this morning “to plot a path forward,” the Associated Press reported.

• Burgess Everett, “Senate Gop Leans Toward Advancing Foreign Aid Bill Without Border Policies” (Politico, February 7, 2024).
• Mary Clare Jalonick, Stephen Groves, “Senate Republicans Block Bipartisan Border Package, Then Scramble to Find Support for Ukraine Aid” (Associated Press, Associated Press, February 7, 2024).
• Burgess Everett, Ursula Perano, “Ukraine Aid in Danger as Republicans Struggle to Chart Course” (Politico, February 7, 2024).

News analyses indicate that President Joe Biden’s reelection campaign will make the border deal’s failure a central point of attack against Donald Trump and the Republican Party this year, or at least a way to blunt Republican attacks on Biden’s border and migration policies.

• Colleen Long, Seung Min Kim, Zeke Miller, “Biden Determined to Use Stunning Trump-Backed Collapse of Border Deal as a Weapon in 2024 Campaign” (Associated Press, Associated Press, February 8, 2024).
• Marianne Levine, Toluse Olorunnipa, “Biden and Trump Jockey for an Edge Amid the Rubble of the Border Deal” (The Washington Post, February 7, 2024).
• Peter Baker, “Trump’s Border Intervention Gives Biden a Chance to Shift From Defense to Offense” (The New York Times, February 7, 2024).
• Aaron Blake, “What a Border Deal Collapse Means for 2024” (The Washington Post, February 7, 2024).
• Mike Memoli, “Biden Advisers Ready to Go on Offense in the Immigration Fight After the Bipartisan Border Bill’s Demise” (NBC News, February 7, 2024).

Following the border deal’s legislative failure, the Biden administration is considering “executive action to deter illegal migration across the southern border” before migration inevitably rises again, two U.S. officials told NBC News. The article does not specify what these actions might be, though they “have been under consideration for months” and “might upset some progressives in Congress.”

• Julia Ainsley, Monica Alba, “The Biden Administration Is Considering Executive Action to Deter Illegal Migration at the Southern Border” (NBC News, February 7, 2024).

The likelihood of migration rising again, after a sharp reduction in January, is strong. In Border Patrol’s San Diego Sector, the sector chief tweeted that agents apprehended 8,659 migrants during the week of January 31-February 6. That is more than any week’s apprehensions in the sector during December 2023, which was a record-setting month for the entire border.

• “Chief Patrol Agent Patricia D. Mcgurk-Daniel @Usbpchiefsdc on Twitter” (Twitter, February 7, 2024).
• Anna Giaritelli, “Leaked Border Patrol Numbers Show Illegal Immigrant Arrests Dropped 50% From December to January” (The Washington Examiner, February 7, 2024).

Recent years’ immigration increases will add over $7 trillion to the U.S. economy over the next ten years, raising U.S. government tax revenues by $1 trillion, according to projections published by the Congressional Budget Office.

• Rich Miller, “Immigration Surge Forecasted to Boost U.S. Economy” (Bloomberg, Time, February 7, 2024).

As the Biden administration reinstates some sanctions on Venezuela, two scheduled flights deporting Venezuelan migrants back to Caracas have been canceled since last week, the New York Times reported.

• Annie Correal, Genevieve Glatsky, Hamed Aleaziz, “Deportation Flights From the U.S. to Venezuela in Limbo” (The New York Times, February 7, 2024).

Customs and Border Protection (CBP) personnel interviewed migrants in the Darién Gap alongside Panamanian authorities in December, and “not one claimed fear of political persecution,” according to agency communications leaked to conservative reporter Ali Bradley.

• “Ali Bradley @Alibradleytv on Twitter” (Twitter, February 7, 2024).

Analyses and Feature Stories

The American Immigration Council published a thorough analysis of the now-defunct Senate border deal. “What we have seen, time and time again, is that adding additional penalties or complications to the process for asylum seekers once they arrive in the U.S. immiserates those asylum seekers without having a lasting impact on overall border arrivals.”

• “An Analysis of the Senate Border Bill” (American Immigration Council, February 7, 2024).

If President Biden were to confront Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) by federalizing the state’s National Guard, he would have to invoke the Insurrection Act, explains Joseph Nunn of the Brennan Center for Justice at Just Security. While doing so “would almost certainly pass legal muster,” Nunn counsels against it for now, as it “should be a tool of last resort.”

• Joseph Nunn, “Biden Can, but Shouldn’t, Federalize the Texas National Guard” (Brennan Center for Justice, Just Security, February 7, 2024).

Fentanyl addiction and overdoses have reached crisis levels in Tijuana and some other Mexican border cities, Will Grant reported at the BBC.

• Will Grant, “‘People Will Keep Dying’: Fentanyl Crisis Grips Mexico’s Border Cities” (BBC (UK), February 7, 2024).

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Developments

The Senate will hold a procedural vote at 1:00pm today on whether to proceed with debate on a $118 billion spending bill, which includes—in response to Republican demands—negotiated compromise language that would reduce migrants’ ability to seek asylum at the U.S.-Mexico border. The vote is expected to fail, falling well short of the 60-vote threshold that it needs, as conservative Republicans have lined up against the compromise language, arguing that it doesn’t go far enough. Some Democrats, concerned by the harm to migrants, will also vote “no.”

• Joan E. Greve, “‘Dead on Arrival’: Us Senate Poised for Procedural Vote on $118bn Border Bill” (The Guardian (Uk), February 7, 2024).

“We have no real chance here to make a law,” said Minority Leader Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky).

• Ursula Perano, “Mcconnell Admits Defeat on Border Deal: ‘It Will Not Become Law’” (Politico, February 6, 2024).
• “Burgess Everett @Burgessev on Twitter” (Twitter, February 6, 2024).

This concludes a two-and-a-half-month negotiation process. Media coverage is broadly portraying this as a Republican flip-flop and last-minute caving in to pressure from Donald Trump, with Democrats “setting a trap” for Republicans by calling their bluff and making concessions on tough border measures.

• Carl Hulse, “On the Border, Republicans Set a Trap, Then Fell Into It” (The New York Times, February 6, 2024).
• David Leonhardt, “Republicans Against Border Enforcement” (The New York Times, February 7, 2024).
• Michael Tomasky, “The Gop Owns the Border Now. Here’s How Democrats Make Sure of It.” (The New Republic, February 6, 2024).
• Anthony Adragna, Ursula Perano, “Senate Gop Mulls Whether It Wants to Delay or Outright Kill Bipartisan Border Deal” (Politico, February 6, 2024).

Some coverage portrays the fiasco as a setback for less Trump-aligned conservatives like McConnell, who supported the compromise. Asked whether he felt like he’d been thrown under the bus, the Republicans’ chief negotiator on the deal, Sen. James Lankford (R-Oklahoma), said “and backed up.”

• Burgess Everett, “Behind the Border Mess: Open Gop Rebellion Against Mcconnell” (Politico, February 7, 2024).
• Joseph Zeballos-Roig, “The Border Bill’s Collapse Leaves Some Republicans Dazed and Confused” (Semafor, February 6, 2024).
• Kayla Guo, “As G.O.P. Demolishes Border Deal, One of Its Own Stands in the Wreckage” (The New York Times, February 7, 2024).
• “John Mccormack @Mccormackjohn on Twitter” (Twitter, February 6, 2024).
• Alex J. Rouhandeh, “Republican Disregard for Border Negotiator James Lankford Angers Democrats” (Newsweek, February 6, 2024).

In a mid-day address from the White House, President Joe Biden voiced strong support for the bill, despite some very conservative limits on asylum and migration that contradict his earlier policy positions. He blamed Donald Trump, and Republicans’ failure to stand up to him, for the bill’s likely failure, calling on GOP members to “show some spine.”

• “Remarks by President Biden Urging Congress to Pass the Emergency National Security Supplemental Appropriations Act” (The White House, February 6, 2024).
• Cleve R. Wootson Jr., “Biden Vows to Make Trump Attack on Conservative Border Bill a Campaign Issue” (The Washington Post, February 6, 2024).
• Aamer Madhani, Mary Clare Jalonick, Stephen Groves, “Border Security and Ukraine Aid Collapses Despite Biden’s Plea for Congress to ‘Show Some Spine’” (Associated Press, Associated Press, February 6, 2024).
• Catherine E. Shoichet, “What the Border Bill Would and Wouldn’t Do” (CNN, February 6, 2024).

Once today’s vote fails as expected, Majority Leader Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-New York) is likely to seek a procedural vote on a version of the spending bill—which includes aid to Ukraine and Israel, and $20 billion for numerous border and migration items—with the border compromise language removed. This “cleaner” bill may have more Republican support. The Senate departs after this week for a two-week recess.

• Andrew Desiderio, John Bresnahan, “Schumer’s Plan B: Clean Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan Bill” (Punchbowl News, February 7, 2024).
• Jake Sherman, John Bresnahan, Mica Soellner, “Schumer Moves on Foreign Aid as House Gop Fumbles” (Punchbowl News, February 7, 2024).
• Morgan Chalfant, “The Border Deal Is Dead. What Now for Ukraine Aid?” (Semafor, February 6, 2024).
• “Steven Dennis @Steventdennis on Twitter” (Twitter, February 6, 2024).

Republicans’ bad day on Capitol Hill was punctuated in the House of Representatives by a stunning 214-216 rejection of articles of impeachment against Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. Surprisingly, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) went ahead with the vote even though all Democrats were opposed and House Republican leaders did not have certainty over their side’s vote count.

• Jordain Carney, Olivia Beavers, “House Gop Fails to Impeach Mayorkas Over Border Handling” (Politico, February 6, 2024).
• Amy B Wang, Jacqueline Alemany, Marianna Sotomayor, Paul Kane, “In Stunning Vote, House Republicans Fail to Impeach Secretary Mayorkas” (The Washington Post, February 6, 2024).
• Anna Giaritelli, “Alejandro Mayorkas Dodges Impeachment by House Over Border Crisis” (The Washington Examiner, February 6, 2024).

The Secretary, whom House Republicans claim has mismanaged the border to the extent that it constitutes “high crimes and misdemeanors,” will keep his job for now thanks to the votes of three Republican members: Reps. Ken Buck (R-eastern Colorado), Tom McClintock (R-San Joaquín Valley, California), and Mike Gallagher (R-Green Bay, Wisconsin). A fourth Republican, Rep. Blake Moore (R-Utah), changed his vote to “no” for procedural reasons, allowing a motion to reconsider.

• Caitlin Yilek, “Alejandro Mayorkas Survives House Impeachment Vote as Gop Lawmakers Defect” (CBS News, February 6, 2024).

House Republican leaders vow to bring the impeachment up again when one more member of their caucus is present: Majority Leader Rep. Steve Scalise (R-Louisiana), who is receiving treatments for blood cancer. Scalise is not expected to return to the House today.

• “Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur on Twitter“ (Twitter, February 6, 2024).

Border Patrol Chief Jason Owens tweeted that the agency has apprehended “+160 undocumented subjects with gang affiliations” during the first four months of fiscal year 2024. If sustained all year, this rate—about 40 allegedly gang-tied migrants per month—would be the fewest since fiscal 2021 and the 3rd-fewest in the 8 years since fiscal year 2017.

• “Chief Jason Owens @Usbpchief on Twitter” (Twitter, February 6, 2024).

Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) operated 130 removal flights in January, up a bit from 128 in December and down from 140 in November, according to Tom Cartwright’s latest monthly report for Witness at the Border. Top destinations were Guatemala (53 flights), Honduras (37), El Salvador (11), Colombia (6), Ecuador (5), and Venezuela (4). One flight each went to Mauritania, India, and Romania.

• Tom Cartwright, Ice Air Flights January 2024 & Last 12 Months (Witness at the Border, Sunday, February 4, 2024).

Border Report went to Jacume, Mexico, just south of Jacumba Springs, California, where Mexico’s National Guard has set up a camp in an effort to block migrants at a point where asylum seekers have been arriving for months seeking to turn themselves in to U.S. authorities.

• Salvador Rivera, “Mexico Sets Up Camp to Stop Unlawful Crossings in Mountains East of San Diego” (Border Report, February 6, 2024).

Analyses and Feature Stories

At the New York Times, Cesar Cuauhtémoc Garcia Hernandez of Ohio State University recalled that the Title 42 expulsion authority did not deter migration, and it would be wrong to expect the expulsion authority in the failing Senate bill to do so.

• Cesar Cuauhtemoc Garcia Hernandez, “This Immigration Bill Was Never Going to Fix the Border” (Ohio State University, The New York Times, February 7, 2024).

At the New Republic, James North pushed back against the fiction that migrants are introducing fentanyl across the border into the United States.

• James North, “How the Media Falls for the Right’s Fentanyl Lies” (The New Republic, February 7, 2024).

In an interview at the Border Chronicle, WOLA’s Adam Isacson (this post’s author) walked through some of the current migration trends and data at the border and along the migration route right now.

• Melissa del Bosque, “Fight Corruption and Invest in Asylum: A Q&A With Adam Isacson” (The Border Chronicle, February 6, 2024).

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Developments

The Senate is to hold a procedural vote tomorrow (Wednesday) on a $118 billion spending package for Ukraine, Israel, border items, and other priorities. In response to Republican demands and after two and a half months of negotiations, the package includes a host of changes to immigration law that would, among other things, make asylum harder to attain at the U.S.-Mexico border. The text of those changes became public Sunday night.

Wednesday’s vote will test whether 60 senators are willing to end debate on the package and move to a vote. Right now, all signs indicate that the bill will fall short of 60 votes. It might not even be close.

More conservative senators—along with the House Republican leadership—are lining up against the compromise migration language on which they had initially insisted, arguing that it is not restrictive enough on migration. “Less than 24 hours after the text of the deal was released, nearly half of the Republican conference immediately panned it, leading to internal finger pointing, frustration and resistance,” wrote Leigh Ann Caldwell and Theodoric Meyer at the Washington Post.

• Leigh Ann Caldwell, Theodoric Meyer, “The Senate Border Deal Is Dead” (The Early 202, The Washington Post, February 6, 2024).
• Daniella Diaz, Ursula Perano, “Our Border Deal Whip Count: It’s Halfway to Getting Blocked” (Politico, February 5, 2024).
• Annie Karni, “G.O.P. Backlash to Border Deal Reflects Vanishing Ground for a Compromise” (The New York Times, February 5, 2024).
• Katie Marriner, Nathaniel Rakich, “You Can Probably Guess Why Trump Is Dead Set Against the Border Bill” (ABC News, February 5, 2024).

Though they may favor Ukraine aid, some progressive senators are also inclined to vote “no,” because of the bill’s erosion of asylum.

Those favoring the bill include moderate Democrats and some top Senate Republican leaders—though Minority Leader Mitch McConnell did not forcefully encourage his caucus to vote for it on Wednesday. Notably, the National Border Patrol Council, the union comprising a large majority of Border Patrol agents, broke with Donald Trump and supported the bill’s border language.

• Burgess Everett, Ursula Perano, “Senate’s Border Deal Teeters on Brink of Collapse” (Politico, February 5, 2024).
• “Seung Min Kim @Seungminkim on Twitter” (Twitter, February 5, 2024).

If the procedural vote fails, it is not clear what will happen next: whether Senate leadership will withdraw the bill, or give senators more time to read its 370 pages and keep debating. The Senate will be out of session next week and the following week.

• Andrew Desiderio, Laura Weiss, Max Cohen, “Senate Gop Poised to Block Border Deal — for Now” (Punchbowl News, February 6, 2024).
• Joseph Zeballos-Roig, “The Border Bill Is Off to a Rough Start in the Senate” (Semafor, February 6, 2024).Rafael Carranza, “Here’s What Arizona’s Members of Congress Say About the New Senate Border Bill” (The Arizona Republic, February 6, 2024).
• Matthew Choi, “Texas Democrats and Republicans Split on Border Proposal — Not Necessarily on Party Lines” (The Texas Tribune, February 5, 2024).
• Bernd Debusmann Jr, Sam Cabral, “Us Senate Releases Deal on Border and Ukraine – but Will It Ever Become Law?” (BBC (UK), February 5, 2024).
• John Cassidy, “Why Trump’s g.o.p. Sock Puppets Are Sinking a Bipartisan Effort to Tighten Up Border Security” (The New Yorker, February 5, 2024).

The full House of Representatives will vote today to impeach Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas on charges of “high crimes and misdemeanors,” based on what House Republicans regard to be poor handling of border security and migration.

• Amy B Wang, Jacqueline Alemany, “House Republicans Schedule Tuesday Vote on Whether to Impeach Mayorkas” (The Washington Post, February 6, 2024).
• Annie Grayer, “House Set to Vote to Impeach Dhs Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas on Tuesday” (CNN, February 6, 2024).
• Anna Giaritelli, “Mayorkas Impeachment Articles Headed for Floor Vote After Rules Committee Votes to Advance” (The Washington Examiner, February 5, 2024).

If all 212 Democrats in the chamber are present and vote “no,” House Republicans will need 216 members of their 219-member delegation to vote “yes”—and a handful of Republican holdouts remain. One moderate, Rep. Ken Buck (R-Colorado), published a column in The Hill yesterday laying out his “no” vote, arguing that while he disapproves of Mayorkas’s performance at DHS, it does not constitute high crimes or misdemeanors.

• Rep. Ken Buck (R-Colorado), “Principles Matter: Republicans Should Follow the Constitution and Not Impeach Mayorkas” (The Hill, February 5, 2024).
• Jordain Carney, “Johnson’s Risky Impeachment Bet” (Politico, February 6, 2024).

Even if the House votes to impeach—only the second impeachment of a cabinet member, and the first since 1876—the two-thirds vote necessary to convict will be unattainable in the Democratic-majority Senate.

• Li Zhou, “The Baseless Impeachment of Alejandro Mayorkas, Explained” (Vox, February 6, 2024).

Organized-crime violence has broken out into open firefights this week in the Mexican border cities of Reynosa, Tamaulipas and Tecate, Baja California.

• “Ciudadania de Reynosa Queda Expuesta a Violencia en Operativos Fallidos por Captura de Lider Criminal” (Elefante Blanco (Mexico), February 5, 2024).
• “7 Balaceras en 5 Dias en Tecate; 6 Muertos” (Revista Zeta (Tijuana Mexico), February 5, 2024).

Analyses and Feature Stories

Joe Biden has shifted to the right on border and migration issues due to “a realization that immigration has become one of his greatest vulnerabilities,” according to an analysis from Washington Post reporter Toluse Olorunnipa. Throughout his term, the analysis reveals, Biden has closely followed the latest migration numbers, even asking about specific ports of entry.

• Toluse Olorunnipa, “Biden’s Journey to ‘Shut Down’ Border Paved With Political Fault Lines” (The Washington Post, February 6, 2024).

A column from Isabela Dias at Mother Jones also explored Biden’s “radical U-turn.”

• Isabela Dias, “Is This the End of Biden’s “Moral Leadership” on Immigration?” (Mother Jones, February 5, 2024).

A commentary from the Center for American Progress broadly supported the bill currently before the Senate, but voiced misgivings about the asylum limitations. It calls for more investment and reform to the U.S. asylum system and for more assistance to “stabilize” and support migrant integration in the Americas.

• Dan Restrepo, Debu Gandhi, Patrick Gaspard, “To Resolve the Humanitarian and Administrative Border Crisis, the U.S. Must Fix the Broken Asylum System, Help Stabilize the Western Hemisphere, and Provide Robust, Orderly Migration Pathways” (Center for American Progress, February 5, 2024).

Associated Press reporters Elliot Spagat and Javier Arciga combined an analysis of the Senate bill’s asylum provisions with an on-the-ground report from Jacumba Springs, California, where asylum seekers arriving at a gap in the border wall wait for hours or days to turn themselves in to Border Patrol.

• Elliot Spagat, Javier Arciga, “Senate Border Bill Would Upend Us Asylum With Emergency Limits and Fast-Track Reviews” (Associated Press, Associated Press, February 5, 2024).

“Why not let states decide how many foreign workers they need and give each participating state an allocation of work visas or waivers to issue in industries with labor shortages?” asked author D.W. Gibson at the Los Angeles Times.

• DW Gibson, “How to Turn Down the Pressure on the Southern Border” (The Los Angeles Times, February 6, 2024).

At the Nation, Arizona-based journalist John Washington published an essay based on his new book, The Case for Open Borders.

• John Washington, “11 Arguments for Open Borders” (The Nation, February 5, 2024).

On the Right

• John Daniel Davidson, “A Border Solution Would Punish Mexican Cartels, Not Bribe Them” (The Federalist, February 5, 2024).

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Developments

Senate leadership published the text of a $118 billion supplemental appropriation bill, complying with a Biden administration request, that would provide additional aid to Ukraine and Israel, among other priorities including $20 billion for border and migration management. It is the product of about two and a half months of negotiations between a small bipartisan group of senators.

• “Murray Releases Text of Bipartisan National Security Supplemental“ (Senate Appropriations Committee, February 4, 2024).

Republican senators’ price for allowing this bill to go forward was new restrictions on migration at the U.S.-Mexico border. But Republicans who insist on an even tougher crackdown on migration—including Donald Trump and leaders of the House of Representatives’ GOP majority—are lining up against the bill. Prospects for its passage are poor.

Of the legislative text’s 370 pages, 281 comprise the “Border Act,” a series of border security, immigration, and fentanyl-interdiction policy changes and spending items.

• Karoun Demirjian, “Here’s What’s in the Senate’s $118 Billion Ukraine and Border Deal” (The New York Times, February 5, 2024).
• Karoun Demirjian, “Senators Release Border Deal to Unlock Ukraine Aid, but Fate Remains Uncertain” (The New York Times, February 4, 2024).
• Camilo Montoya-Galvez, “Senators Release Border-Ukraine Deal That Would Allow the President to Pause U.S. Asylum Law and Quickly Deport Migrants” (CBS News, February 4, 2024).
• Leigh Ann Caldwell, Liz Goodwin, “Senate Negotiators Release Sweeping Border and Military Aid Bill” (The Washington Post, February 4, 2024).
• Mary Clare Jalonick, Stephen Groves, “What’s in the Bipartisan Senate Package to Aid Ukraine, Secure U.S. Border” (Associated Press, Associated Press, February 4, 2024).
• Burgess Everett, Daniella Diaz, Ursula Perano, “Senators Unveil Long-Awaited Border Deal” (Politico, February 4, 2024).
• Lauren Fox, Priscilla Alvarez, “Key Highlights of the Senate’s Proposed Border Deal Package” (CNN, February 5, 2024).
• Al Weaver, “Senate Negotiators Unveil Long-Sought Border Deal” (The Hill, February 5, 2024).
• “Policy Brief: Aila Analysis of the Border and Immigration Provisions of the “Emergency National Security Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2024”” (American Immigration Lawyers Association, February 4, 2024).

The text includes many of the controversial limits on access to asylum at the U.S.-Mexico border that had already been reported in media coverage. Among the bill’s many key provisions are:

• Allowing the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to impose a Title 42-like expulsion authority, “summarily removing” asylum-seekers from the United States (except for hard-to-prove Convention Against Torture appeals), when unauthorized migrant encounters reach a daily threshold.
  • This “Border Emergency Authority” would kick in when DHS encounters a seven-day average of 5,000 migrants per day or 8,500 in a single day; at its discretion DHS could start expelling people when the average hits 4,000.
  • As this threshold includes about 1,400 per day who approach ports of entry, expulsions would be mandatory when Border Patrol apprehends 3,600 or more people per day between ports of entry. Encounters have crossed that threshold in 34 of the Biden administration’s first 36 months.
  • It is not clear whether Mexico would agree to take back expelled migrants across the land border. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) does not have the capacity to carry out aerial deportations on this scale to countries beyond Mexico.
  • This Border Emergency Authority would “sunset,” or automatically be repealed, after three years. For each of the three years, DHS would have fewer days in which it could use it to expel asylum seekers.
• Requiring asylum seekers placed in “expedited removal”—usually 20-25,000 per month right now, but likely to expand—to meet a much higher standard of “credible fear” in screening interviews with asylum officers.
• Changes to the asylum system that would have asylum officers handing down most decisions in months, while making it rare for cases to be heard in immigration courts.
• No substantive changes to the presidential authority to grant humanitarian parole.

President Biden called for the bill’s immediate passage and said he would sign it.

• “Statement From President Joe Biden on Bipartisan Senate National Security Agreement” (The White House, February 4, 2024).
• “Fact Sheet: Biden-?Harris Administration Calls on Congress to Immediately Pass the Bipartisan National Security Agreement” (The White House, February 4, 2024).
• Jennifer Haberkorn, Myah Ward, “Biden Challenges House Gop to Solve Border Crisis — or ‘Keep Playing Politics’” (Politico, February 4, 2024).

The bill quickly came under fire from Democrats who favor immigration reform and upholding migrants’ rights, and from Republicans who want a return to Donald Trump’s policies at the border.

• Sen. Alex Padilla (D-California), “Padilla Statement on Senate National Security Supplemental Agreement” (U.S. Senate, February 4, 2024).
• Eugene Daniels, Rachael Bade, Ryan Lizza, “Playbook: The Biden 2024 Co-Chair With Serious Border Qualms” (Politico, February 2, 2024).
• Jordan Weissmann, Joseph Zeballos-Roig, “The Senate Unveiled Its Border Bill. House Republicans Immediately Declared It Dead.” (Semafor, February 4, 2024).

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) and Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-Louisiana) said that it was “dead on arrival” and would not come to a vote in their chamber. The House has instead scheduled a vote on a $17.6 billion standalone bill with aid for Israel and nothing else that was in the administration’s request.

• “Speaker Mike Johnson @Speakerjohnson on Twitter” (Twitter, February 4, 2024).
• “Steve Scalise @Stevescalise on Twitter” (Twitter, February 4, 2024).
• Oliver Milman, “Us House to Vote Next Week on Standalone $17.6bn Bill for Aid to Israel” (The Guardian (Uk), February 3, 2024).

Many Republicans have targeted the 5,000-encounter threshold in the “Border Emergency Authority,” incorrectly portraying it as allowing 5,000 migrants to be released into the United States (the 5,000 could just as likely be deported or detained).

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-New York) has scheduled a vote for Wednesday to “test” whether the bill has the 60 out of 100 votes necessary to end debate and vote on it.

Schumer and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky) “are counting on a center-right plus center-left supermajority of the Senate to vote for this measure,” wrote Andrew Desiderio, Jake Sherman, and John Bresnahan at Punchbowl News. “There’s no guarantee of enough support there.”

• Andrew Desiderio, Jake Sherman, John Bresnahan, “Brawl Erupts in Senate Gop Over Border Security Supplemental” (Punchbowl News, February 4, 2024).

Thirteen Republican state governors joined Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) in the border town of Eagle Pass. It was another show of conservative support as Texas challenges federal authority over border and migration policy, insisting that migrants are an “invasion” and blocking Border Patrol from full access to Eagle Pass’s sprawling riverfront park.

Abbott claimed, without evidence, that Texas’s policies are behind January’s drop in migration at the border, even though sectors in Arizona and California also saw reductions.

• “America’s Governors Stand With Texas to Secure the Border” (Texas Governor’s Office, February 4, 2024).
• J. David Goodman, “Texas Will Expand Effort to Control Land Along Mexican Border, Abbott Says” (The New York Times, February 4, 2024).
• Jasper Scherer, “5 Takeaways From Gov. Abbott’s Trip to the Border With Gop Governors” (The Houston Chronicle, February 5, 2024).
• Linda Greenhouse, “There’s a Border War Inside the Supreme Court, Too” (The New York Times, February 4, 2024).
• Benjamin Wermund, Jasper Scherer, “Abbott Vows Expansion of Texas Border Security Push Alongside 13 Republican Governors in Eagle Pass” (The Dallas Morning News, February 4, 2024).

Abbott’s event somewhat overshadowed a right-wing gathering nearby, outside Eagle Pass; much coverage of this “convoy” focused on its participants’ religious fervor.

• Maria Alejandra Cardona, Ted Hesson, “Trump-Focused Texas Border Rally Blends Politics and Religion” (Reuters, February 4, 2024).
• Macarena Vidal Liy, “Convoy of Trump Supporters Demands Control of the Us Border With Mexico” (El Pais (Spain), February 4, 2024).

A deportation flight to Morelia, Mexico on January 30 was the first such flight to Mexico’s interior since May 2022, the New York Times reported.

• Hamed Aleaziz, “U.S. Quietly Resumes Deportation Flights Deep Into Mexico” (The New York Times, February 2, 2024).

Analyses and Feature Stories

The Guardian accompanied volunteers in the wilderness of California’s central border zone, more than an hour’s drive east of San Diego, where they hike through hostile territory looking for people in territory where migrant deaths are frequent.

• Amanda Ulrich, “The Fight to Save Lives in the Treacherous California Desert: ‘a Broken Ankle Is a Death Sentence’” (The Guardian (Uk), February 4, 2024).

CBS News’s “60 Minutes” program visited this region and reported on asylum seekers turning themselves in to Border Patrol in difficult outdoor conditions, including a big increase in citizens of China.

• Aliza Chasan, Guy Campanile, Lucy Hatcher, Sharyn Alfonsi, “Chinese Migrants, Some With the Help of Tiktok, Have Become Fastest-Growing Group Trying to Cross U.S. Southern Border” (60 Minutes, CBS News, February 4, 2024).
• Brit Mccandless Farmer, “The San Judas Break: Where Migrants Pour Into America” (CBS News, February 4, 2024).

Across the border from this region, in Mexico’s state of Baja California, INewsource reported that Mexico’s government “significantly escalated enforcement” this week, installing a camp at a point where asylum seekers frequently cross.

• Sofia Mejias-Pascoe, “Mexico Sets Up Border Camps Near San Diego to Intercept Us-Bound Migrants” (inewsource, February 2, 2024).

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Developments

Congress will adjourn for the weekend later today. And after next week, the Democratic-majority Senate is scheduled to take a two-week Presidents’ Day recess. (The Republican-majority House of Representatives will take a one-week recess after February 16.)

• “Burgess Everett @Burgessev on Twitter” (Twitter, January 31, 2024).

Meanwhile, there is no bill language yet from a small group of senators negotiating a deal that would restrict asylum access, to satisfy Republican demands to pass a package of Ukraine aid and other spending. The agreement is teetering as pathways to becoming law close off. “It’s not dead yet, but the writing’s on the wall,” a Republican senator told Punchbowl News’s Andrew Desiderio.

• Lauren Fox, Priscilla Alvarez, “Democrats Lean in on Border Security as Republicans Scuttle Deal” (CNN, January 31, 2024).
• Deirdre Walsh, Lexie Schapitl, “Senate Gop Split Threatens Bipartisan Border Deal as Trump Looms Large” (National Public Radio, January 31, 2024).
• Alex J. Rouhandeh, “Killing Border Deal Is ‘Terrible’ for Gop: Dem Campaign Chief Gary Peters” (Newsweek, January 31, 2024).
• “Andrew Desiderio @Andrewdesiderio on Twitter” (Twitter, January 31, 2024).

As discussed in a new WOLA commentary, media reports indicate that the deal would create a new Title 42-like authority to expel asylum seekers from the United States, with little to no chance to seek protection, when a daily average of migrant encounters exceeds a specific number (reportedly 5,000).

• Adam Isacson, “Five Questions and Answers About the Senate Border Deal” (Washington Office on Latin America, January 31, 2024).

Lead Republican negotiator Sen. James Lankford (R-Oklahoma) said that the group was “whisper-close” to releasing language, but that they were not ready to share it Wednesday. (Lankford is taking a lot of criticism from pro-Trump elements of his party for negotiating with Democrats.)

• “Camilo Montoya-Galvez @Camiloreports on Twitter” (Twitter, January 31, 2024).
• Anthony Adragna, Burgess Everett, Ursula Perano, “Lankford’s Make-or-Break Moment on the Border” (Politico, January 31, 2024).

Another negotiator, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Arizona), offered some new details about what the agreement contains as she sought to debunk rumors.

• Burgess Everett, “Sinema Rebuts ‘Misinformation’ About Bipartisan Border Deal” (Politico, January 31, 2024).
• Julie Tsirkin, “The Bipartisan Border Deal Would Not Allow 5,000 Illegal Crossings Per Day, Despite What Trump Says” (NBC News, January 31, 2024).

One of the main misconceptions is that the new expulsion authority would be triggered after 5,000 migrants per day were allowed into the U.S. interior: it would instead apply whenever Border Patrol apprehended that many people under any circumstances, even if most ended up deported or detained.

• Julie Tsirkin, “The Bipartisan Border Deal Would Not Allow 5,000 Illegal Crossings Per Day, Despite What Trump Says” (NBC News, January 31, 2024).
• Al Weaver, “Border Negotiators Fire Back at Conservative Critics” (The Hill, January 31, 2024).

In the House, Republicans opposed to the deal are digging in. They include Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana), who criticized elements believed to be in the Senate agreement, along with a broader attack on the Biden administration’s border and migration policies, in his first floor speech as speaker.

• Clare Foran, Kristin Wilson, Priscilla Alvarez, “Mike Johnson Stands by Opposition to Senate Immigration Deal and Biden’s Border Policy in First Floor Speech as Speaker” (CNN, January 31, 2024).
• Mychael Schnell, “Speaker Johnson Uses First Floor Speech to Hammer Biden on Border” (The Hill, January 31, 2024).
• Raquel Martin, “House Gop Rejects Bipartisan Border Deal” (Border Report, January 31, 2024).
• Justin Kounelias, “Trump All but Confirms He Told Johnson to Tank Border Deal” (Border Report, January 31, 2024).

The rightmost contingent of the Senate’s Republicans also attacked the deal at what The Hill called “a contentious lunch meeting in the Capitol Wednesday.” Reporter Alexander Bolton concluded, “the prospect of mustering 25 Senate GOP votes for the bill is dimming, raising the possibility that Republicans will abandon the effort altogether.”

• Alexander Bolton, “Gop Senators Wrestle Over Border Deal in Face of House Opposition” (The Hill, January 31, 2024).
• Daniel Marans, “Like Trump, Republican Senate Candidates Buck Bipartisan Border Deal” (The Huffington Post, January 31, 2024).

Politico reported that progressive Democrats, too, are beginning to line up against the Senate border deal.

• Nicholas Wu, Ursula Perano, “Democrats Risk a New Progressive Rebellion as Biden Embraces Border Deal” (Politico, January 31, 2024).

The House passed a bill, with 56 Democratic votes, that would mandate life sentences on migrant smugglers involved in high-speed pursuits near the border if anyone is killed during the chase.

• Jim Nintzel, Paul Ingram, “House Passes Ciscomani Bill to Punish Drivers Who Flee Bp, Cops Near Border” (The Tucson Sentinel (Tucson Arizona), January 31, 2024).

The chief of Border Patrol’s San Diego Sector tweeted that agents there apprehended 7,889 migrants in the week ending January 30. That is the fourth weekly increase she has reported in a row, up from 3,598 during the week ending January 9.

• “Chief Patrol Agent Patricia D. Mcgurk-Daniel @Usbpchiefsdc on Twitter” (Twitter, January 31, 2024).

A San Diego Border Patrol agent is under investigation after engaging in lewd behavior in a YouTube video while on duty near Jacumba Springs, California, near where hundreds of asylum seekers wait outdoors each day to turn themselves in to agents.

• Anna Giaritelli, “Uniformed Border Patrol Agent Who Exposed Himself to Youtuber and Porn Star Under Investigation” (The Washington Examiner, January 31, 2024).

Analyses and Feature Stories

The disorder and neglect of the U.S. asylum and immigration-court systems are a big reason why migration is increasing at the U.S.-Mexico border, reads an analysis from Miriam Jordan at the New York Times.

• Miriam Jordan, “One Big Reason Migrants Are Coming in Droves: They Believe They Can Stay” (The New York Times, January 31, 2024).

The New York Times’s Karoun Demerjian and The Atlantic’s David Graham poked holes in House Republicans’ case for impeaching Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.

• Karoun Demirjian, “Impeachment Case Against Mayorkas Ignores Government’s Immigration Powers” (The New York Times, January 31, 2024).
• David A. Graham, “The Nonsensical Impeachment of Alejandro Mayorkas” (The Atlantic, January 31, 2024).

In an interview at Slate, the American Immigration Council’s Aaron Reichlin-Melnick explains why there is no such thing as a presidential ability to “shut down” the border.

• Ben Mathis-Lilley, “So Many People Want Biden to “Shut Down” the Border to Stop Migration. There’s Just One Problem With This!” (Slate, January 31, 2024).

At the Washington Post, data journalist Philip Bump unpacked the new Republican talking point of referring to adult male migrants as “military-age males.”

• Philip Bump, “It’s Scarier to Refer to Immigrants as ‘Military-Aged Males’ Than ‘Men’” (The Washington Post, January 31, 2024).

At The Atlantic, Fernanda Santos positively reviewed an upcoming book about migration from New Yorker staff writer Jonathan Blitzer.

• Fernanda Santos, “America’s Immigration Reckoning Has Arrived” (The Atlantic, January 31, 2024).

On the Right

• Daniel Henninger, “The Republicans’ Border Crisis” (The Wall Street Journal, January 31, 2024).