Adam Isacson

Defense, security, borders, migration, and human rights in Latin America and the United States. May not reflect my employer’s consensus view.

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November 2024

Mexico is Already Blocking as Many Migrants as CBP and Border Patrol Are

<Edit, November 27:> It was great talking to Greg Sargent yesterday for an excellent New Republic piece that embeds the below graphic.

All this paves the way for larger deceptions later. Bank on it: The moment Trump takes office, the lower apprehension numbers will magically become real metrics. Fox News will start trumpeting them and he’ll start claiming the border has achieved pacification due to his strength. Indeed, Trump very well may credit his current threat of tariffs with “forcing” Mexico to make the lower numbers of border crossings a reality.

…[W]e may not be prepared for the gale-force agitprop that’s about to hit us.

</Edit>

Yesterday the President-Elect promised to levy tariffs on Mexico and Canada for not doing enough to stop migration to the U.S. border.

However, Mexico’s security and migration forces (green in the chart) are already encountering and impeding, in their territory, about as many migrants as U.S. forces do at the border. In July, they stopped more people than their U.S. counterparts did.

Migrant Encounters: CBP at the U.S.-Mexico Border, and Mexico Throughout its Territory

United States:
	Between the Ports of Entry (Border Patrol)	CBP at the Ports of Entry
23-Oct	188749	52178
23-Nov	191106	51293
23-Dec	249740	52241
24-Jan	124215	51980
24-Feb	140641	49272
24-Mar	137473	51886
24-Apr	128895	50842
24-May	117905	52811
24-Jun	83532	46883
24-Jul	56400	47700
24-Aug	58009	49464
24-Sep	53858	47932
24-Oct	56530	49814

	Mexico
23-Oct	91581
23-Nov	97204
23-Dec	94816
24-Jan	113839
24-Feb	118865
24-Mar	117973
24-Apr	114514
24-May	125499
24-Jun	121589
24-Jul	116243
24-Aug	96563
24-Sep	
24-Oct

(Mexico hasn’t yet updated its September and October numbers. Underlying numbers are in the image’s alt text.)

CNN Español: “Estados Unidos prohíbe la entrada del General retirado colombiano Mario Montoya”

Here’s a CNN Español segment I recorded at the studio (which is one neighborhood away from home) on Monday evening. It’s about State Department sanctioning, for serious human rights allegations, a general who was a key U.S. “partner” at the outset of Plan Colombia in the early 2000s. Also, the Colombian government’s request to pardon a FARC leader currently in the federal Supermax prison in Colorado after being extradited in 2005.

My Kid, in Korea

My daughter Margaret has been spending this first semester of her junior year studying at Yonsei University in South Korea, a country that she’s followed closely since discovering K-Pop in junior high. Between that and a summer program, she’ll have spent five of the last six months of 2024 on the other side of the planet. Not bad for a 20-year-old.

She’s been posting regular updates about her travels to her blog, with dozens of photos. The latest post is about recent jaunts outside of Seoul, visiting cities in the country’s interior.

I post this as a proud parent—and as someone who can use his own site to post some links and prod search engine crawlers in her direction.

Email Update is Out

Here’s a new “weekly” e-mail about stuff I’ve been working on, for those who’ve signed up to receive them.

It has the weekly Border Update; some links to coverage of organized crime-tied government corruption during the past month; five interesting readings from last week; and some other items that I’ve posted here over the past week.

There are no “upcoming events” in the e-mail, nor will I post any here. Next week is punctuated by the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States (Thursday the 28th), so little will be happening. I will also skip next week’s e-mail update.

If you visit this site a lot, you probably don’t need an e-mail, too. But if you’d like to get more-or-less regular e-mail updates, scroll to the bottom of this page or click here.

Organized Crime-Tied Corruption in the Americas: Links from the Past Month

Over the past month, I managed to add 69 stories with the tag “Organized Crime” to my database of Latin American security-related news and reports.

Breaking deep, corrupt links and collusion between governments and criminal organizations must be at the core of any strategy to weaken organized crime and make people feel safer. Despite that, of the 69 articles, just 12 (7 from Mexico alone) documented examples of official collusion with organized crime. They are linked below.

Chile

As Chile arrests more gang members, the race is on to stop the prison system from becoming a new command nucleus for organized crime. Preventing corruption is going to be a key part of that effort.

“Criminal organization and state corruption are two sides of the same coin,” said Fernando Guzman, a judge who has made regular visits to Santiago I. “It is impossible to build a powerful criminal enterprise, with significant profitability, without an alliance with some state agencies.”

There have been some isolated cases of corruption among the police force and prison guards.

Colombia

The Special Jurisdiction for Peace (JEP) has forwarded copies of investigations to the Prosecutor’s Office, the Supreme Court of Justice and Case 08 of the same JEP so that the respective judicial processes can be carried out against a major general of the Army, six State agents and three civilians, accused by Dairo Antonio Úsuga David, alias ‘Otoniel’, for their alleged collaboration with paramilitary groups.

Among those investigated by the JEP is Major General Carlos Omairo Lemus Pedraza, who was commander of the XVIII Brigade of the National Army between 2000 and 2003. According to the testimony of the former paramilitary chief, Lemus allegedly collaborated with the paramilitaries, allowing the expansion of these groups in the Arauca region. Alongside him are several former governors and officials such as Julio Acosta Bernal, former governor of Arauca, and Helí Cala López, former governor in charge of Casanare, who allegedly facilitated the presence and operation of the paramilitaries in their respective regions.

Other prominent names include Óscar Raúl Iván Flórez Chávez, former governor of Casanare, and Milton Rodríguez Sarmiento, former senator, both accused of alleged participation in the consolidation of paramilitary control in Casanare and their support for the AUC. Also mentioned are businessmen such as Andrés Rueda Gómez, former secretary of infrastructure of Casanare, and Sergio Hernández Gamarra, former rector of the University of Cartagena, who allegedly collaborated financially with the AUC in contracts that favored these groups.

… The collaboration of these state actors with the paramilitaries not only allowed these groups to increase their power in the regions of Casanare and Arauca, but also consolidated territorial control that led to multiple human rights violations. In Casanare, for example, political and business actors facilitated contracts and resources that financed the operations of the Centauros Bloc, while in Arauca, the AUC, with the backing of local authorities and members of the security forces, managed to consolidate their dominance to combat other insurgent groups and control the region.

Haiti

In Solino, Garry Jean-Joseph, 33, blamed the police for the ongoing violence. “I left with nothing,” he said. “The people of Solino do not understand last night, the conspiracy of the policemen and the Live Together (Viv Ansanm) soldiers.”

The resident described how at 2 a.m., a policeman in an armored car told residents to go home and that they would secure the neighborhood. However, shortly afterward residents could hear gangs invading. “The police delivered Solino,” he added.

Some officers with Haiti’s National Police have been long accused of corruption and working with gangs.

Mexico

Germán Reyes Reyes, the retired military officer accused of ordering the assassination of Chilpancingo municipal president Alejandro Arcos, served as a prosecutor for serious crimes from 2022 to 2024. In the new municipal administration, he was placed in charge of the Public Security Secretariat. His career in the state capital was cut short on November 12, when he was arrested by the National Guard and the Army. In the initial hearing, the Public Prosecutor accused the official of being part of the criminal group Los Ardillos. The judge evaluated the evidence and ordered preventive detention.

The following day the Army issued a communiqué distancing itself from the accused; however, it had endorsed his appointment as prosecutor when Lieutenant Sandra Luz Valdovinos was appointed attorney general. So far in Evelyn Salgado Pineda’s administration, the investigation of the crimes is in the hands of the Army. The results have been disastrous because most of the investigation files are not prosecuted, and high-impact crimes have increased in the state’s eight regions.

While the kidnapping of [top Sinaloa cartel leader Ismael “El Mayo”] Zambada has broken the order that existed around drug trafficking in Sinaloa, little is said about the conflict between Governor Rocha [Rubén Rocha Moya] and former university president [Héctor] Cuén, the genesis of the de facto state of emergency in Culiacán.

… Then comes 2021. Cuén, more astute than Rocha, sold Morena on the need for an alliance with PAS [a local political party] and agreed that Rocha would be the gubernatorial candidate in exchange for him being appointed Secretary of Government or Senator. Several local media published that the elections had been won with the help of Zambada and the Guzmans, who threaten opposition politicians and move people around. Once the governorship was pocketed, Rocha offered him the Secretary of Health.

The newly elected mayor of Chilpancingo, Mexico, had appointed Germán Reyes as the man who would safeguard his city.

But on Tuesday, the Mexican authorities arrested Mr. Reyes, a retired military officer and former prosecutor, accusing him of ordering the mayor’s brutal killing in southwest Mexico last month in a case that had already shocked a nation reeling from widespread violence against local politicians.

…State prosecutors on Tuesday announced the arrest of Mr. Reyes, 46, the city’s security chief, on a charge of aggravated homicide, saying he colluded with a local criminal group to abduct and assassinate the mayor.

The implication was that Reyes – who was also a former military officer who, according to his official resume, retired with rank of captain in the military justice system – had somehow worked in collusion with the gang.

That would suggest that at least one of the two warring gangs fighting for control of Chilpancingo controls, intimidates or works with officials there.

If Reyes is convicted, it would also be a stinging rebuke for a policy adopted by cities across Mexico of hiring retired military officers for top local police jobs, on the assumption that they are less prone to corruption.

It was also revealing that state detectives had to rely on federal forces—soldiers and the National Guard—to make the arrest, suggesting they may not have trusted state and local police who would normally carry out such tasks.

Heyman Vázquez, a Catholic priest who works in Ciudad Hidalgo, along the Guatemalan border, said criminal groups in southern Mexico have gone so far as to set up checkpoints along the main highway in an effort to identify migrants. “The authorities are involved,” he said about the kidnappings, adding that there’s a blurry line between the authorities charged with protecting migrants and the cartels exploiting them. “You never know who you’re talking to,” he said.

The Mexican government didn’t respond to requests for comment on allegations that organized crime has set up checkpoints along the highway in southern Mexico or that kidnappers may be collaborating with officials.

Ciudad Hidalgo Mayor Elmer Vázquez claimed to not know anything about migrant safe houses operating in the area and said his town always looks after migrants.

But Rev. Vázquez (no relation to the mayor), who has spent two decades defending migrants, said the prosecutor’s office, National Guard, special prosecutor for crimes against migrants do nothing even when crimes are reported.

“They are colluding with organized crime and, of course, they make it look like they’re doing their jobs,” he said.

In the specific case of Guanajuato, the attacks against police officers have been concentrated in the Laja – Bajío area, which is under the control of the Jalisco Cartel – New Generation (CJNG) and is disputed by the Santa Rosa de Lima Cartel (CSRL).

In an interview with MILENIO, public security consultant David Saucedo said that in the region, also known as the Huachicol Triangle, it is the criminal organization founded by José Antonio Yépez Ortiz – alias El Marro- that is fighting public security corporations.

According to documents from the National Defense Secretariat (Sedena) leaked by Guacamaya Leaks and cited by the consultant, the Santa Rosa de Lima Cartel had managed to infiltrate municipal and state security agencies and even the National Guard, from whom they received protection and support to escort tanks of stolen fuel leaving the Salamanca refinery.

With the CJNG’s violent incursion into Guanajuato municipalities and the so-called Industrial Corridor, the criminal organization currently headed by members of El Marro’s family has taken on the task of attacking security corporations that are not aligned with them.

The Santa Rosa Cartel does control some municipal police in the state of Guanajuato but others do not. Others are out of their control and that is where they have launched a combat strategy, especially in Celaya which is their economic capital and where they carry out kidnapping, extortion, fuel theft and above all drug dealing activities,” explained David Saucedo in an interview with MILENIO.

Thus, the attacks on police officers that have been reported during 2024 in Celaya would be related to the Santa Rosa de Lima Cartel since, in the consultant’s words, “it is one of the few police forces in Guanajuato that does carry out this activity of combating organized crime”.

To combat security corporations, the criminal organization headed by José Antonio Yépez Ortiz has assigned deserters from the Colombian Army, as well as members of the Grupo Escorpión of the Gulf Cartel with whom they created alliances to stop the advance of the CJNG.

(For more about ex-Colombian military personnel working with cartels in Guanajuato, Mexico, see this May 2023 report at Mexico’s El Universal from Héctor De Mauleón.)

Peru

In a hearing held this afternoon before the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR), Peruvian judge and member of the Latin American Federation of Magistrates Oswaldo Ordóñez alerted the international community about the permanent political attacks against the Public Prosecutor’s Office and the Judiciary, and made a report on all the laws in favor of organized crime and corruption approved so far by the Peruvian Congress.

… The magistrate recounted all the laws approved so far in Peru in favor of organized crime and corruption by the Congress dominated by Fuerza Popular, Peru Libre, and APP, together with other satellite blocs.

“This parliamentary majority and the Executive Power have enacted laws that modify the statute of limitations; that cut the terms in the processes of effective collaboration; that prevent the seizure of goods or materials used in illegal mining; that exclude all political parties from any criminal responsibility; that promote impunity for terrorists and ex-military; that oblige raids to be carried out with the presence of the raided person’s lawyer, and establish a new typification of the crime of organized crime”, he commented.

The magistrate commented that this new regulatory framework “has generated the exponential growth of crime and insecurity, putting the entire population at serious risk”.

Venezuela

Environmental leaders and activists agree that improving the situation for Venezuelan wildlife requires a fundamental shift in the government’s modus operandi. The government must cut ties with wildlife traffickers and actively prosecute cases of trafficking.

Cristina Burelli, founder of conservation NGO SOS Orinoco, says a lack of institutions and rule of law create favorable conditions for wildlife trafficking in Venezuela. “The only way to combat wildlife trafficking is by strengthening institutions, but that’s not going to happen under the Maduro regime. So unfortunately, until there’s a change of government, I don’t think there’s going to be any change [for wildlife],” she says.

“It has created a situation in Venezuela where nobody really cares,” she adds.

Listen to Human Rights Defenders

That’s quite a turnabout for Colombian Army Gen. Mario Montoya. In the early years of the “Plan Colombia” security buildup, Montoya was the “can-do” general whom the U.S. and Colombian governments frequently featured when they gave reporters access to military operations supported by big U.S. aid packages starting in 2000.

We now know that Montoya had a darker side of collusion with death squads, tacit backing of right-wing paramilitary groups, and—later, as Army commander—overseeing a spike in murders of civilians through relentless encouragement of high body counts. The State Department sanctions announced today further confirm this.

None of this is news to Colombia’s human rights defenders, who had been warning about Montoya’s record, and the rising number of extrajudicial killings, for years before either government began to respond.

This is yet another reminder of the importance of listening to human rights defenders.

Weekly U.S.-Mexico Border Update: November 22, 2024

Due to the U.S. holiday, there will be no Weekly Border Update on November 29, 2024. Updates will resume on December 6.

With this series of weekly updates, WOLA seeks to cover the most important developments at the U.S.-Mexico border. See past weekly updates here.

Support ad-free, paywall-free Weekly Border Updates. Your donation to WOLA is crucial to sustain this effort. Please contribute now and support our work.

THIS WEEK IN BRIEF:

Read More

Picking Up Where They Left Off

Things had been chaotic since January 2017, but Donald Trump’s first administration took a sharply darker turn during and after the June 2020 George Floyd / Black Lives Matter protests, all the way to the January 6 Capitol riots.

The Department of Homeland Security had already been captured by Trump loyalists who specifically sought to deter migration through cruelty, most notably during the 2017-2018 family separation crisis. Then, as people took to the streets to protest police killings of Black Americans, the Trump White House sought to involve the U.S. armed forces in internal, politicized missions with few modern historical precedents.

Mercifully, the story ended there: Trump lost the elections five months later, and was dislodged two months after that.

Those very rough seven months were the endpoint of the last Trump administration. But they are the starting point of the next one. The danger, especially for U.S. civil-military relations, is hard to understate.

It was during those last seven and a half months of Trump’s term that the guardrails came down and destructive people gained positions of real power. The generals who had served as brakes on Trump’s wildest urges—McMaster, Mattis, Kelly—were long gone, and Trump was musing about having soldiers shoot protesters in the legs. Things got so bad by the end that the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff took it upon himself to call his Chinese counterparts to reassure them that nothing destructively reckless was about to happen.

  • Soldiers got sent out to clear protesters from part of Lafayette Square, by the White House, so that Trump could have his photo taken with a Bible. Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley later apologized for accompanying Trump on that stunt.
  • Acting DHS officials deployed Border Patrol agents and other federal law enforcement officers to the streets of interior cities like Washington and Portland to confront protesters. In Portland, the confrontations were frequent and violent.
  • Little-known Trump loyalists like Ezra Cohen and Kash Patel, keeping close watch on acting Defense Secretary Chris Miller, gained effective control of the Pentagon.
  • Nobody called out the National Guard in time to respond to the January 6 insurrection.

Nearly all of the president-elect’s appointments since Election Day make clear that he wants to pick up exactly where he left off during those final, terrible months.

The United States might scrape by as a democratic republic after four years like January 2017-May 2020. But four years like June 2020-January 2021? That would be extinction-level.

We need institutions to guard against that, if they’re even able. Especially the U.S. armed forces, which have a long tradition of resisting any alignment with a political party or leader. But it’s a tradition: the president is the commander in chief, and though it may take a couple of years to pack the high command with pro-MAGA generals and colonels, it’s not impossible to politicize them.

The road to politicization starts with calls to involve the armed forces in a partisan, almost certainly abusive domestic mass-deportation campaign, even if just in a logistical or supporting role. The road to military politicization will become an expressway if headlines like these become more than just notions: “Trump draft executive order would set up board to oust generals en masse”; “Trump transition team compiling list of current and former U.S. military officers for possible courts-martial.”

Email Update is Out

Here’s a new “weekly” e-mail about stuff I’ve been working on, for those who’ve signed up to receive them.

It has the weekly Border Update; a set of resolutions for post-election daily life; a WOLA podcast episode about what awaits us; an overview of border and migration trends through the end of the U.S. government’s 2024 fiscal year; next week’s relevant events that I know of; five interesting readings from last week; and a self-evaluation of a year of “daily border links” posts.

If you visit this site a lot, you probably don’t need an e-mail, too. But if you’d like to get more-or-less regular e-mail updates, scroll to the bottom of this page or click here.

Latin America-Related Events in Washington and Online This Week

(Events that I know of, anyway. All times are U.S. Eastern.)

Monday, November 18

  • 12:30-2:00 at George Washington University: Can Peru’s Democracy Survive? Insights from President Francisco Sagasti and Ambassador Stephen McFarland (RSVP required).
  • 2:00-3:00 at refugeesinternational.org: Cartagena +40: Where Next for Refugee Protection in Latin America? (RSVP required).

Tuesday, November 19

Wednesday, November 20

Thursday, November 21

  • 2:30 at atlanticcouncil.org: Building the future of cross-sector collaboration in the Summit of the Americas (RSVP required).
  • 3:00-4:00 at the Inter-American Dialogue and thedialogue.org: Realizing the Economic Potential of Latin America and the Caribbean: A Fireside Chat with William Maloney and Kellie Meiman Hock (RSVP required).

Weekly U.S.-Mexico Border Update: November 15, 2024

With this series of weekly updates, WOLA seeks to cover the most important developments at the U.S.-Mexico border. See past weekly updates here.

Support ad-free, paywall-free Weekly Border Updates. Your donation to WOLA is crucial to sustain this effort. Please contribute now and support our work.

THIS WEEK IN BRIEF:

In the days following his election to the presidency, Donald Trump has named three officials with direct border and migration responsibilities. All of them represent the Republican Party’s hard line on border security crackdowns and restriction of immigration. Stephen Miller will be Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy at the White House. Tom Homan will be in the White House as a “border czar.” Kristi Noem is the nominee to head the Department of Homeland Security. They will manage a planned “mass deportation” campaign while seeking to do away with legal migration pathways that the Biden administration preserved or established. Secretary of State-designate Marco Rubio will lead a foreign policy toward the Western Hemisphere, especially Mexico, for which migration will be a dominant issue.

Analysts and border-security planners continue to expect the number of migrants approaching the U.S.-Mexico border to increase ahead of Inauguration Day as people race to reach U.S. soil before a crackdown. So far, though, this has not materialized: Border Patrol apprehensions have actually dropped since Election Day.

22,914 people migrated in October through the treacherous Darién Gap region straddling Colombia and Panama. That is a modest drop from 25,111 in September, which may be due at least in part to weather conditions. The number of migrants from Venezuela (19,522) barely dropped from September.

The U.S. Senate Appropriations Committee, chaired by Democrats until the chamber switches to Republican control, published the text of its version of the 2025 appropriations bill for the Department of Homeland Security. It includes more money for CBP, especially for ports of entry, and more funding for shelters and local jurisdictions receiving and integrating released migrants. It does not include additional money to hire Border Patrol agents or to build new border barriers. It is unclear whether this bill will move forward. Republicans may seek to write their own bill after they assume the Senate majority in January, though that would require keeping the U.S. government open after December 20, the deadline for passing a 2025 budget.

THE FULL UPDATE:

Read More

Darién Gap Migration Through October 2024

Panama’s government posted updated data about the number of migrants encountered migrating through the Darién Gap jungles. While the number of people making the dangerous journey declined a bit (to 22,914 in October 2024, from 25,111 in September), the number of citizens of Venezuela barely budged (from 19,800 in September to 19,522 in October).

In fact, citizens of Venezuela (blue in the chart) made up 85 percent of all people who migrated through the Darién Gap in October. That’s Venezuela’s largest-ever monthly share of the Darién migrant population (it was 80% in September 2022).

Data table

Migration through the Darién Gap has declined from 2023, when Panama counted 520,085 people all year. 2024 is in second place, though, with 286,210 migrants during the year’s first 10 months.

Since 2022, an incredible 676,981 citizens of Venezuela have migrated through the Darién Gap. If there are about 30-32 million Venezuelan people, that is 1 out of every 47 of them.

Data table

See also:

From WOLA: Five Migration and Security Trends at the U.S.-Mexico Border

Here’s 2,000 words and 12 charts that I wrote and drafted before the Election Day cataclysm. In late October, the U.S. government published final fiscal year 2024 data about border and migration topics. I waded through all that and distilled it into five key trends:

  1. Crackdowns temporarily lowered numbers.

  1. Children and families made up 43 percent of migrants encountered.

  1. The geography of migration has undergone rapid post-pandemic shifts and moved west since the end of Title 42.  Texas’s crackdown did not cause this.

  1. Migrant deaths may have declined. But deaths as a share of the migrant population have not.

  1. Fentanyl seizures dropped for the first time. It’s not clear why.

Read the whole thing, with text explaining these graphics, at WOLA’s website.

A “Border Czar”

Thomas Homan was the acting director of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) during Donald Trump’s last administration. He’s an extreme pro-deportation hardliner and was a key proponent of the 2017-2018 policy of separating migrant families at the border.

In October, CBS’s 60 Minutes asked Homan, “Is there a way to carry out mass deportation without separating families?”

He replied, “Of course there is. Families can be deported together.”

“I got a message to the millions of illegal aliens that Joe Biden’s released in our country. You better start packing now,” Homan told the Republican National Convention in July.

Donald Trump just announced that Tom Homan will be his administration’s “border czar,” a made-up position, presumably in the White House, that doesn’t require Senate approval. Homan will have responsibilities “including, but not limited to, the Southern Border, the Northern Border, all Maritime, and Aviation Security” and “will be in charge of all Deportation of Illegal Aliens back to their Country of Origin.”

“I will run the biggest deportation force this country has ever seen,” he told a July conference of so-called “National Conservatives,” adding, “They ain’t seen sh*t yet. Wait until 2025.”

Latin America-Related Events in Washington and Online This Week

(Events that I know of, anyway. All times are U.S. Eastern.)

Monday, November 11

  • 9:00-2:30 at Georgetown University: Caring for the Other: Refugees and Displaced Persons (RSVP required).
  • 9:00-6:00 at the Inter-American Human Rights Commission and online: Public Hearings of the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (RSVP required).

Tuesday, November 12

  • 9:00-6:00 at the Inter-American Human Rights Commission and online: Public Hearings of the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (RSVP required).
  • 11:00-12:30 at WOLA and online: ¿Por qué la comunidad internacional no puede ignorar la crisis en Perú? (RSVP required).
  • 2:00 at atlanticcouncil.org: Assessing the halfway point of Colombia’s 2016 peace accord implementation (RSVP required).

Wednesday, November 13

  • 9:00-6:00 at the Inter-American Human Rights Commission and online: Public Hearings of the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (RSVP required).
  • 10:00-11:00 at csis.org: Can Latin America’s Copper Be the Key to a Low-Carbon Future? (RSVP required).
  • 10:00-11:30 at georgetown.edu: Caring for the Other: Refugees and Displaced Persons Webinar (RSVP required).
  • 11:00-12:00 at wilsoncenter.org: The Drying Out of Central America (RSVP required).

Thursday, November 14

  • 9:00-5:30 at the Inter-American Human Rights Commission and online: Public Hearings of the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (RSVP required).
  • 10:00-11:15 at wilsoncenter.org: Claudia Sheinbaum’s Security Strategy: A Path Forward? (RSVP required).
  • 12:00-1:30 at refugeesinternational.org: U.S. Election Implications on Migration Policy in the Americas (RSVP required).
  • 12:00 at Zoom: The Darien Gap: A Deadly Journey in the Pursuit of Safety (RSVP required).
  • 1:00-2:00 at CGRS Zoom: Asylum and Climate Change: Identifying and Analyzing Climate-Related Claims in the United States (RSVP required).
  • 2:00-3:30 at csis.org: Consult and Cooperate in Times of Great Need: Indigenous Rights and the Just Transition (RSVP required).

Friday, November 15

  • 9:00-10:15 at wilsoncenter.org: USMCA After the Election: Key Challenges and the Path Forward (RSVP required).
  • 9:00-5:30 at the Inter-American Human Rights Commission and online: Public Hearings of the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (RSVP required).

WOLA Podcast: What Trump’s Return Means for Latin America

I recorded this late Friday with WOLA’s president, Carolina Jiménez, and our vice president for programs, Maureen Meyer. We walk through some of what that awaits us in Latin America during the second Trump administration: democratic backsliding, closing civic space, brutal crackdowns on migrants, old-school war on drugs, a collision course with Mexico.

We don’t have the blueprint yet for opposing the “authoritarian playbook” in the Americas. But if there’s a central message to this first-days conversation, it’s that the path back to democracy runs through a robust, creative, inclusive civil society. WOLA has been defending civil society partners throughout the region since 1974, and we’re going to continue doing that—now, here at home, too—during the coming storm that is no longer coming, it’s here.

Here’s the text of the podcast landing page at WOLA’s website:

We recorded this episode three days after Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election. It brings together WOLA’s president, Carolina Jiménez Sandoval, Vice President for Programs Maureen Meyer, and Director for Defense Oversight Adam Isacson. Together, they possess a combined seven decades of experience working on human rights, democracy, and U.S. policy toward Latin America. All worked on these issues, plus borders and migration, through the first Trump administration.

Maureen, Carolina, and Adam discuss what Trump’s win means for democratic backsliding and relationships with authoritarian governments region-wide, as well as for migration policy, drug policy, cooperation with Mexico, and U.S. foreign aid and security programs.

Both Maureen and Carolina emphasize the importance of journalists, human rights defenders, advocacy groups, and other elements of civil society. Their role in protecting checks and balances and promoting accountability has never been more crucial. The civic space that they need to do their work is at great risk of closure amid attacks on independent media, disinformation, and threats of retribution emanating from the president-elect and his allies.

They note that a Trump presidency will probably reverse the U.S. government’s uneven but improving record as a force helping to shore up democratic rule, which has been eroding in the region and worldwide. Guatemala—where the presence or absence of U.S. support has been crucial for fair elections and anti-corruption efforts—is a key example. The incoming administration’s transactional, ideological stance risks withdrawing support for democratic rule, empowering autocrats with severe consequences for basic rights.

While the Biden administration curtailed access to asylum and did little to improve accountability for U.S. border forces’ human rights abuses, Maureen, Carolina, and Adam warn that Trump’s plans for the border and immigration could indelibly stain the United States. The president-elect’s proposed policies—closing migration pathways, “mass deportation,” militarization of border security—threaten to cause mass suffering and greatly complicate U.S. relations with Mexico and other regional governments.

Humanitarian organizations on the border, migrant shelters, and legal service providers, they point out, are especially in need of solidarity as they are now at risk of being targeted on a federal level, as Texas’s government has sought to do at the state level.

Carolina recalls that “WOLA has survived for over 50 years because we are part of an ecosystem that is under threat but resilient… It’s time to stick together and support each other and to do our work with more commitment and more energy than ever.”

Adam adds, “Times like these are the reason we exist… Stay with us.”

Thank you for listening, and take care of yourself and your community.

Download this podcast episode’s .mp3 file here. Listen to WOLA’s Latin America Today podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, iHeartRadio, or wherever you subscribe to podcasts. The main feed is here.

“On Our Own and Undefended,” Revisited

David Atkins, at Washington Monthly:

Scripted is the kiss of death in modern presidential politics. The vibes and poll numbers for Harris were best preceding and, in the run-up to the Democratic National Convention, when she and Tim Walz were winging it on messaging and more willing to go off script. No matter what the polls and focus groups may have suggested, “They’re weird” worked better than stumping with Liz Cheney. Trump ran a campaign with almost no discipline, but it didn’t cost him anything. The more disciplined Harris became, the more she struggled. The more carefully Harris sought moderate Republican votes, the less buzz she seemed to receive.

Yes: this nails it. During those heady pre-Convention weeks, before the pricey consultants’ message-massaging took over, I wrote that for those of us fearing what Trump represents, the candidates’ tone offered a chance, finally, to feel “no longer on our own and undefended.”

The best thing about this new tone and energy is the feeling that, at least for now, we’re not on our own anymore. Someone—even if it’s with the same consultants who were writing timidly for Biden before, now unleashed—is finally sticking up for us.

By Labor Day, the Harris-Walz campaign’s pugnacious, crackling-with-edgy-energy messaging was gone. It got washed away by gauzy, vague “moving forward to the future” language and appeals to Dick Cheney-loving border hawks who, except for a narrow educated fringe worried about democracy, were always going to vote for the real version of Trump instead of the “lite” version.

Remember that cool video, shot days after Walz got chosen, of the two candidates just shooting the sh*t, talking about their musical preferences and their backgrounds sticking up for working-class and vulnerable people? It was great! But for some reason, that video, and any similar messaging, got totally memory-holed.

This is from August 15, 2024. In it, Walz made a funny comment about liking “white guy tacos.” Some far-right outlets gnashed their teeth about that, and I guess the campaign got spooked?

I’ll say it: by October, I felt alone and undefended again. And the candidates’ rejection of the human rights priorities I advocate on border and immigration policy—priorities that much of the Democratic Party shares—personally stung.

Like most of my colleagues doing this work, I held my tongue because the other candidate’s program was so much worse. That felt awful.

Nobody likes being thrown under the bus by should-be allies for advocating what they know is right, for trying to protect vulnerable people. But you know what feels worse? Being thrown under the bus for that in the name of a strategy that utterly failed anyway. I don’t recommend this feeling. It feels f***ing bad.

That’s it. I’m done with recriminations and finger-pointing, they’re not productive. We need to build, we need to be constructive.

I just need to scream out my rage this one time, because I don’t want to see this ever happen again.

How That Year of “Daily Border Links” Posts Went

On November 27, 2023, with a U.S. presidential election nearly a year away, WOLA’s border and migration program embarked on a “rapid response” strategy to add facts and context to the narrative about one of the upcoming campaign’s main issues.

That day, we published the first of what would be 185 “Daily Border Links” posts totaling over 150,000 words (plus the link citations).

  • Each one was a summary of that day’s U.S.-Mexico border-related news: breaking developments and deeper analysis pieces, with fully cited links below each item.
  • Each was just a few hundred words: a quick read, most of the time produced by about 9:00 or 10:00 Eastern each weekday.
  • I would then share them on WOLA’s Border Oversight microsite, on my own blog, and—as up to four attached images of each page’s text—on seven social media sites (Twitter, BlueSky, Mastodon, Threads, LinkedIn, Instagram, and Tumblr).
  • I would also share them with three mailing lists: two NGO coalition listservs, and a Google Group open to the public. (You can still sign up for that and get WOLA’s Weekly Border Updates, which we’ve been producing since 2020.)

This was a key part of our “rapid response” strategy because it forced me to do the reading and to be excruciatingly up to date on every development and data point. It was an excellent tool for reaching journalists and fellow activists, experts, and service providers. It helped shape some news coverage, and I know that many people in government were reading it.

The idea was to run the Daily Border Links for a year, through U.S. Election Day, and then shut them down and move on. I would entertain the idea of continuing them if the level of demand and engagement was spectacular.

In the end, the level of demand for the “links” posts was healthy enough to have made it more than a worthwhile effort. But it was not overwhelming enough to merit continuing it beyond the election campaign year.

Here’s an evaluation of the experience:

The good

  • As a rapid response strategy, the Daily Border Links succeeded in reaching journalists and NGO partners. It appeared to reach U.S. executive branch officials quietly: they knew about it but rarely interacted with them. Legislative staff give much more frequent feedback on our weekly updates, which are actual narratives, rather than on annotated links like the dailies.
  • Having to write these each weekday kept me super sharp, which made my “post-9:00 AM” border and migration advocacy work far more effective. I know so much about what’s happening, in alarming detail. It made me a good interview, I think.
  • I didn’t miss a single deeply reported piece, investigation, or NGO or government report. (Though I also see most of those when doing the weekly updates.)
  • I’m very proud of the archive that will remain on the web for good. The November-to-November story is a journey from the late-2023 Senate negotiations over the “bipartisan border bill” at a time of record migration, to the bill’s failure, Mexico’s crackdown, all the things the candidates were saying as both tacked rightward, the Biden administration’s body blow to asylum access, and the recent decline in migration. All of this interspersed with innumerable fact checks, deeply reported investigations, and tragedies that people forget after a few news cycles.

The not-so-good

  • As noted, the Daily Links did not set the world on fire, traffic-wise, although it’s hard to tell because—since I wanted to get the information out frictionlessly—I shared them in a way that allowed people to read it without me knowing. I used graphics to put the whole thing on social media platforms, and I mailed it to listservs. My analytics service, Plausible, says that just 2,900 people visited the main news archive page in a year, which is not impressive; 4,600 people when you include visits to individual updates’ pages. But I gave people few reasons to visit the site itself, because the same information appeared in so many other formats and on so many other platforms.
  • While I created a Google Group mailing list (no cost to me, but not the friendliest format for people without Gmail accounts), I didn’t advertise it except for a link at the top of each post. Still, 158 people signed up between January and now. Between that and listservs, several hundred people got it in their mail every morning. That is good reach for a niche product, but nothing to brag about. (WOLA’s Weekly Updates do a lot better. They’re not as rapid response, and they run long. But Google features them prominently and they often get over 3,000 downloads each. About 1 in 10 exceeds 10,000 downloads.)
  • I ended up having to wade through a lot of mediocre content in my daily “gatherings” from news sources (a Twitter list of news posters, RSS feeds, Google News searches). There’s a lot of “boiler room,” “shovel,” “press release,” or “police blotter” reporting out there—especially on Google News—that I’m happy not to have to comb through anymore. What a waste of time.
  • Ultimately, it’s not our goal to be a “news service”: we should be active participants in the movement for a rights-respecting, humane, well-managed border.

During key moments like an election year, furrowing our brow to do rapid-response news-digging and analysis made sense, and I know the links posts inspired some good media reporting, alerted allies to emerging trends and challenges, and improved our audiences’ access to facts (if those matter anymore). But now, I need to spend more time on work that is less shallow, that adds more value, and that doesn’t require racing to put something out by 9:00 AM.

Why stop now? Resources.

So now, 347 days after the first post, the last “Daily Border Links” went up today, and there’s no plan to restart. Some colleagues have contacted me to lament this. They have a point: the Trump transition and the first 100 days are a time when our community could really use daily updates.

But WOLA doesn’t have the resources to maintain this pace right now. Like many NGOs that do human rights advocacy without U.S. government funding, we’re in a lean moment.

I suppose I could be convinced to continue producing them if we had specific philanthropic resources to pay for the big investment in staff time they require. However, institutional funders are less interested in backing national-level “narrative work” about borders and migration right now.

You could see the sector-wide lack of resources in major outlets’ campaign coverage, which tended to cite, repeatedly, a small number of border and migration experts. We’re the handful of people who’ve managed to make a living being credible sources of information and clear explainers, while more current and wide-ranging than our counterparts in academia. (No shade to academia, which rewards deeper specialization and a slower, more deliberate pace, not “rapid response” on a spectrum of issues. Imagine trying to do that while teaching a full courseload.)

Without foundation or big individual donor grant money, could we sustain a continued pace of Daily Links posts by charging people to get them, like a Substack model? Perhaps, but I’m not sure the numbers work for something this niche.

For the number of hours I spent on the daily links—news-gathering, reading, writing, all those mailings and social media cross-posts—plus the WOLA infrastructure that makes it possible, I’d conservatively need $3,500 per month. That’s $4,000-4,500 if you include time spent on the weekly updates, too. That would be 400 people paying $10 per month each, or 800 people paying $5 per month.

Given the traffic indicators I mentioned above, that seems unlikely. If we added a paywall (which many Substacks don’t do, asking for voluntary contributions), we’d be shutting down distribution to those who don’t cough up the money, thus negating the original goal of getting friction-free information to as many people as possible.

So that’s more than you probably wanted to know about our foray into producing daily, rapid-response content during an election year. I’m glad I did it, and I’m proud that I never missed a day without giving advance warning first. I certainly don’t rule out doing it again when the need arises.

Weekly U.S.-Mexico Border Update: November 8, 2024

With this series of weekly updates, WOLA seeks to cover the most important developments at the U.S.-Mexico border. See past weekly updates here.

Support ad-free, paywall-free Weekly Border Updates. Your donation to WOLA is crucial to sustain this effort. Please contribute now and support our work.

THIS WEEK IN BRIEF:

Donald Trump’s election points to a return, and likely intensification, of ultra-hardline border and migration policies at the U.S.-Mexico border and elsewhere. We can expect a suspension or curtailment of most legal migration pathways, from CBP One to asylum access to humanitarian parole. We can expect a “mass deportation” campaign in the U.S. interior. This section lists and explains some of the president-elect’s promised and likely initiatives, and what they mean for U.S.-Mexico relations.

Trump’s victory creates an incentive for some migrants to try to reach U.S. soil before Inauguration Day, January 20, rather than await CBP One appointments. In Mexico, “caravans” are already forming, while migrants in shelters along the route voice anxiety about their future.

Members of Mexico’s National Guard, a recently created force made up mostly of transferred soldiers, opened fire on a vehicle carrying migrants along the border east of Tijuana. Two Colombian people were killed. It is the second such incident since October 1, when Mexican Army soldiers killed six migrants in Chiapas. In both incidents, military leadership claims that the soldiers were returning fire, or thought that they were; witnesses dispute that.

Migration through the Darién Gap jungle region straddling Colombia and Panama appears to have dropped modestly from September to October. However, reports are pointing to an increase in people entering Colombia from Venezuela. Since August, Panama has operated 25 deportation flights, with U.S. support, to Colombia, Ecuador, and India.

THE FULL UPDATE:

Read More

The Helpers Need Help

If the fascism playbook calls for scapegoating a vulnerable minority, it also means heaping scorn and derision—or worse—on people who serve and defend that vulnerable minority.

I’ve had lots of conversations this week, both one on one and in coalition, with people assisting the migrant population that Donald Trump calls “animals” who are “poisoning the blood of our country.” I’ll have more conversations today.

They’re not doing well, and they’re preparing for retrenchment.

Shelter operators, pro bono attorneys, and rights defenders, at the U.S.-Mexico border and elsewhere, are bracing for the scale of suffering they’re about to see, and desolate about their limited power to do anything about it.

They’re also worried about themselves: Will they be able to operate? Will they be fending off legal challenges? Will their communications and relationships be subject to surveillance? Is their personal safety at stake, threatened by both aggressive security personnel and self-styled vigilantes?

They also feel alone and undefended. And that’s with good reason.

Will anyone in the political establishment defend them? An important sector of the Democratic Party absolutely will defend them, and defend the rights of immigrants in general. But will a majority of the Democratic Party step up? The Party that just spent an election season triangulating itself away from the migrant rights’ defense community and tacking rightward (with absolutely nothing to show for it)?

Will traditional legacy media step up, after hedging their endorsements and issuing incessant “Trump Pursues Ambitious Immigration Agenda” headlines?

It’s really not clear.

Helpers don’t deserve to be made to feel like this. If you know someone who does this work, please send them a message today and let them know you appreciate them and that you’ll stick up for them. They need it now, and they’re really going to need it soon.

Daily Border Links: November 8, 2024

This is the final Daily Border Links post. Thank you for reading and sharing these as our year-long “rapid response” effort shifts down. The archive will remain online.

WOLA will continue to produce Weekly Border Updates, as we have for over four years, and we will continue to send them to the mailing list that you can join here.

For daily updates about migration, see the National Immigration Forum’s Forum Daily newsletter, and Mary Turck’s Immigration News site.

Developments

On November 6, a Donald Trump spokesperson told Fox News that the president-elect has a mandate to fulfill his campaign promises, including “on day one, launching the largest mass deportation operation of illegal immigrants.” The next day, Trump told NBC News, “It’s not a question of a price tag. It’s not–really, we have no choice” but to massively deport people.

A Reuters/Ipsos online poll taken after Trump’s election victory found that during Trump’s first 100 days in office, “25% of respondents said he should prioritize immigration, a much larger share than any other issue.”

Quiet preparations to implement “mass deportation” are now “ramping up” to full-scale planning, CNN reported. Advisers are discussing priority targeting of undocumented migrants with criminal records while they debate the next steps for “dreamers,” undocumented people who were brought to the United States as children. Slate pointed out that the deportation plan may count on the participation of local police departments nationwide.

Private security contractors that run prisons and detention centers are ramping up their own planning, CNN added. The stock prices of private detention companies like CoreCivic and Geo Group soared following Trump’s election. GEO Group’s board chair said his company was “well-positioned” to go from its present allotment of 13,500 Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) detention beds to “over 31,000 beds.” But the incoming administration won’t immediately have the money to pay them unless it resorts to emergency authorities.

Unnamed Border Patrol agents shared their ecstatic response to Trump’s election with the Washington Examiner’s Anna Giaritelli.

A federal district court judge has struck down the Biden administration’s “Keeping Families Together” program, which sought to use humanitarian parole authority to allow hundreds of thousands of undocumented spouses of U.S. citizens to remain in the United States. Judge J. Campbell Barker, a Trump appointee, determined that the presidential parole authority for migrants, which dates back to 1952, does not empower a president to parole people already inside the United States. The administration is unlikely to appeal, since the incoming Trump administration opposes the program and will not defend it.

Analyses and Feature Stories

If Donald Trump acts after taking office to cut off legal migration pathways like asylum and the CBP One appointments program, migrants are certain to turn to smugglers and seek to enter the United States through other, more dangerous, means, experts and advocates told Associated Press reporters in Mexico. Shelter directors in Mexico, meanwhile, say that they have heard of no Mexican government plans to receive a large number of U.S. deportees.

On a visit to the capital of Mexico’s Chiapas state last week, Gretchen Kuhner of the Mexico-based Institute for Women in Migration saw migrants “getting their cellphones charged every day at some makeshift place on the street so they can check their CBP One appointments… while they’re breastfeeding and sleeping in a tent without any water.”

In a Mother Jones listing of likely Trump policies, Isabela Dias warned of “indiscriminate workplace raids, massive detention camps, and around-the-clock deportation flights.”

Dias and NPR’s Sergio Martínez-Beltrán spoke to immigrant rights defenders who plan to use litigation and other tools to seek to block or at least slow Trump’s planned closures of legal immigration pathways.

Gustavo Torres of CASA told NPR that his organization’s corps of activists “are expressing disappointment in the Democratic Party’s strategy and policy on immigration and that the Harris campaign failed to articulate or promote clear immigration or border policies such as pathways to citizenship. When the issue came up during the race, Harris would criticize Trump for scuttling a bipartisan border bill.”

At the Intercept, Aída Chávez pointed out that Vice President Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party have “nothing to show” for their rightward shift on border and immigration policy during the 2024 campaign and the latter part of the Biden presidency.

Several analyses examined the impact that a second Trump administration may have along different parts of the border.

La Verdad de Juárez reported that Mexican border cities like Ciudad Juárez should prepare for a “boom” of migrants trying to reach U.S. soil before Inauguration Day, January 20. That city’s “Somos Uno Por Juarez” shelter network is currently at 45 percent capacity, but that could increase. Analysts foresee more migrants turning to smugglers, taking dangerous routes to avoid detection.

Migrants awaiting CBP One appointments in Ciudad Juárez told Border Report of their fear that the CBP One program will soon disappear, and the odds of winning cases will plummet for those who manage to apply for asylum.

In Mexico’s southern state of Veracruz, through which many migrants pass while traveling between the Mexico-Guatemala border and Mexico City, state officials expect an increase in the number of people passing through between now and Inauguration Day, Milenio reported.

Officials in Baja California, Mexico, told Border Report that they, too, expect an increase in migration ahead of Inauguration Day. Shelters are currently at 60 percent capacity in Tijuana and 70 percent in Mexicali.

In California, the state with the largest undocumented migrant population, Wendy Fry reported at CalMatters, non-profits are bracing for the humanitarian impact of Trump’s policies and preparing to oppose them using tools like litigation.

Searchlight New Mexico voiced concerns that the coming crackdown is likely to increase fear in immigrant communities, deterring crime reporting, healthcare access, and social service use, while raids may increase the separation of children from undocumented parents. The publication foresees a further increase in migrants dying in New Mexico’s deserts as they seek to avoid apprehension. The article further notes notoriously grim conditions at the state’s ICE detention centers, like Otero and Torrance.

In Texas, migrant rights defenders are bracing themselves, the Texas Observer reported. “Texas is definitely going to be on the front lines of a mass deportation operation,” said Daniel Hatoum of the Texas Civil Rights Project.

Donald Trump’s election victory in south Texas’s majority Mexican-American border counties–a solidly Democratic stronghold as recently as 2016–is “the starkest example of what has been a broad national embrace of the Republican candidate among Hispanic and working-class voters,” according to a New York Times analysis. Voters were concerned about inflation and what they perceived as uncontrolled immigration. The Associated Press reported on the same phenomenon from Starr, one of the south Texas counties that ended a long streak of voting for Democratic presidential candidates.

The Economist recalled Trump’s threats to slap tariffs on Mexican goods if, in his view, the Mexican government is not doing enough to block U.S.-bound migration and accept U.S. deportees–including an agreement to be a “safe third country” for other nations’ asylum seekers, a status that Mexico has resisted.

Daily Border Links: November 7, 2024

Daily Border Links posts will end tomorrow, on November 8; we lack resources to maintain this tempo indefinitely. We have been producing these since last November; the archive will remain online.

WOLA will continue to produce Weekly Border Updates, as we have for over four years, and we will continue to send them to the mailing list that you can join here.

For continued daily updates about migration, see the National Immigration Forum’s Forum Daily newsletter, and Mary Turck’s Immigration News site.

Developments

Even as the Republican Party and Donald Trump made sharp Election Day gains in border counties, especially in Texas, incumbents won all races in House of Representatives districts along the border. Among the narrowest victories are those of Reps. Vicente González (D) in Texas’s Rio Grande Valley, Gabe Vásquez (D) in New Mexico, and Juan Ciscomani (R) in southeast Arizona. Ciscomani won by about 1,600 votes over Democratic challenger Kirsten Engel; a Green Party candidate won 6,600.

In Arizona, 63 percent of voters approved a ballot initiative making it a state crime to cross the border without authorization. The measure resembles Texas’s S.B. 4, which passed in late 2023 but faces court challenges, including by the Biden Justice Department. The Arizona Daily Star’s Howard Fischer noted that it passed “without organized campaign support. But the measure, put on the ballot by Republican state lawmakers, could have benefited from years of headlines and videos about people entering the country illegally.”

In Chiapas, Mexico, participants in a migrant “caravan” exiting the city of Tapachula voiced concern to Reuters that Donald Trump’s election ends their hopes of seeking asylum or protection in the United States. A few turned back to Tapachula.

Milenio reported that some migrants may be trying to pick up their pace to reach the U.S. border before Trump takes office.

NBC News reported that the Biden administration’s Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is making contingency plans ahead of a possible increase in migration as people attempt to reach U.S. soil before Inauguration Day. “A common theme emerged among multiple users: The time to come to the U.S. is now,” NBC said of WhatsApp groups used by migrants.

Asylum seekers awaiting CBP One appointments in Tijuana voiced a well-founded fear that this opportunity will disappear on Inauguration Day. Casa del Migrante shelter director Pat Murphy told Milenio that dangerous irregular migration will increase if the CBP One pathway disappears: “People are going to keep trying to cross and there will be more deaths at the border.”

Analyses and Feature Stories

Donald Trump’s election “sets the stage for a sharp turn in immigration and border policy that could upend millions of lives and recast the U.S. economy and labor force,” wrote longtime Washington Post border and immigration reporters Maria Sacchetti and Nick Miroff.

Chad Wolf, who headed the Department of Homeland Security during the last Trump administration, told the Post that U.S. public opinion is more favorable now for Trump’s hardline policies: “You’ll see a different mindset, and over time it’ll be possible to remove large numbers of people.” Lee Gelernt of the ACLU said, “We anticipate it will be much worse this time and are particularly concerned about the use of the military to round up immigrants.”

Melissa López, director of Estrella del Paso (formerly known as Diocesan Migrant and Refugee Services), told Border Report that her organization is urging migrants “to be getting legal advice as soon as possible so they can find out where they stand” before Trump is inaugurated.

Mexico’s government is bracing for threats, including Trump’s campaign promise to impose tariffs, if it fails to meet the president-elect’s demands to block migrants, accept deportees, and curb drug transshipment, the Los Angeles Times reported.

“There’s no reason to be worried,” Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum told a morning press conference yesterday. “There’s going to be dialogue.” Trade between Mexico and the United States exceeded $800 billion in 2023.

“Mexico gave in to the pressures back then [during Trump’s last term], and the question is whether Mexico will give in again,” Tonatiuh Guillén, a migration scholar who headed Mexico’s migration agency at the beginning of Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s term in 2018-19, told the New York Times. “I think the likelihood it will is high.”

The Times analysis noted that massively deporting people back to Mexico would severely damage the country’s economy by increasing the unemployed population and slashing remittances. “We’re going to see deportees who are harder to reintegrate,” said Eunice Rendón of the advocacy coalition Migrant Agenda.

The Associated Press noted that Trump’s plans to massively deport as many as 11 million undocumented immigrants lack any detail. However, Trump and advisors have referred to using the National Guard or the military and invoking the 1798 Alien Enemies Act. “We all have to have our eyes wide open to the fact that this isn’t 2016,” Heidi Altman of the National Immigration Law Center’s Immigrant Justice Fund told the AP. “Trump and Stephen Miller learned a lot from their first administration. The courts look very different than they did four years ago.”

The Dallas Morning News recalled that Trump advisor Stephen Miller said last year that mass deportation could involve detention camps built “on open land in Texas near the border.”

Officials from the last Trump administration singled out the State Department as a potential obstacle to the president-elect’s proposed mass deportation program. “Nobody” in the diplomatic corps “really thought that was their problem,” Reuters reported that Trump’s ambassador to Mexico, Christopher Landau, said in an October panel discussion.

“The president has a lot of discretion when it comes to the refugee program,” said Mark Hetfield, the CEO of HIAS, one of several advocates and service providers interviewed by Voice of America. “And for asylum, [he’s] going to make it impossible to apply at the border as he did with Title 42 and his Remain in Mexico policies.”

Art Del Cueto, vice president of the National Border Patrol Council, the union representing a large majority of Border Patrol agents, told Newsweek, “We consider today’s victory for President Trump not just a victory for himself, but a victory for the entire country.” The union endorsed Trump in every election since the 2016 primaries.

The New York Times talked to Democratic-leaning voters who chose Donald Trump on Tuesday because they disapproved of the Biden administration’s handling of the border and migration. “There is no constituency left in this country that favors large-scale immigration,” Muzaffar Chishti of the Migration Policy Institute told the Times’s Miriam Jordan.

Guatemalan analysts and former officials interviewed by Prensa Libre expect a big increase in U.S. pressure to halt migration and accept more deportees after Donald Trump moves into the White House. The same newspaper noted that hopes for Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Guatemalan citizens in the United States have evaporated.

At Palabra, Dianne Solís reflected on the United States’ history of migrant deportations, which Donald Trump proposes to step up massively. For asylum seekers, “Their deportation could be a death sentence,” Jenifer Williams of Dallas-based Migrant Emotional Health told Solís. “They live with a lot of anxiety, usually in the form of PTSD.”

A Colombian government report counted “261,975 detections of migrants in irregular transit to the north of the continent” leaving the country in the first 7 months of 2024. That is a slower pace than in 2023 when Colombia counted 539,959 people over the entire year. Of January-July “detections,” 70.8 percent were citizens of Venezuela.

Bracing Yourself

Here’s some unsolicited advice for how to go about daily life between now and January 20. You may have drawn up a list of your own today. If not, you may feel better after taking a moment to do so.

I’m absolutely not doing all of these things, though I’d like to start many of them.

  • Resist the urge to post “outrage” takes on social media. Daniel Hunter calls that “public angsting,” adding, “It’s demoralizing us. It’s hurting our capacity for action.” Maybe read more instead. Or better yet, spend the time writing or creating something more thoughtful, something that adds value and context, requiring more “emotional labor” than a hot take. At the very least, say, a blog post at a space you own. Then, when that’s done, go to social media and link to it.
  • Get off of Elon Musk’s Twitter. And look at Meta’s properties with skepticism, too. The ideal would be Mastodon—decentralized and immune from corporate takeovers, you can even own your own virtual managed server for not too much money, which I do. But very few people are there. More are on BlueSky, which is also run by a corporation that could change its behavior anytime, but at least for now it feels like “old Twitter.” The fact is, if you do communications, you still need a Twitter and Meta presence because so many audiences are still there: even though those audiences probably hate it, “network lock-in” is real. I’m limiting my own Twitter presence to posting links to items hosted elsewhere, and the very occasional quote-tweet. No original content.
  • Learn best practices for interacting with aggressive security personnel. Know your rights regarding what you are and are absolutely not required to say and what you are not required to allow to be searched. Also, learn best practices for dealing with violent people and people who threaten others. Learn at least some basics of de-escalation and self-defense.
  • Make more time for neighbors and co-workers as well as for family and friends. When you do, listen more than you talk.
  • Turn up your computer’s security settings, even if they’re less convenient. Ditch spying browsers like Chrome. Change passwords. Use a password manager if you don’t already. Cancel accounts for digital services you don’t use. Delete little-used apps that may be leaking location and other data. Consider using a VPN. Encrypt all of your drives and devices. Add more digits to the PIN you use to unlock your phone. Look at more secure communications services like Signal and ProtonMail. Read more tips from the EFF. If your security needs are extreme, use a locked-down Linux distribution like Debian with privacy enhancements, Fedora with security modules, or even Qubes OS.
  • Be gentler on yourself. Sleep 8 hours. Get exercise, but don’t overtrain; in fact, don’t even “train,” just take it slow, but get outside and see the sky. Cut back on—but don’t necessarily cut out completely—items that dull your alertness or weaken your body’s ability to deal with stress, such as booze, caffeine, drugs, refined sugars and carbohydrates, processed foods, and animal products.
  • Be kind. Even to people who don’t seem to deserve it. Just err on the side of kindness. Lots of folks aren’t doing well right now.

Daily Border Links: November 6, 2024

Daily Border Links posts will end this week, on November 8, the Friday after the U.S. elections; we lack resources to maintain this tempo indefinitely. We have been producing these since last November; the archive will remain online.

WOLA will continue to produce Weekly Border Updates, as we have for over four years, and we will continue to send them to the mailing list that you can join here.

Developments

“America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate,” said Donald Trump, as U.S. voters elected him to the presidency with a majority of the electoral and popular votes, while giving the Republican Party a majority of the U.S. Senate and the possibility of a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.

“We’re going to have to seal up those borders and we’re going to have to let people come into our country,” the president-elect said in his acceptance remarks’ only substantive reference to the U.S.-Mexico border. “We want people to come back in, but we have to, we have to let them come back in, but they have to come in legally.”

Based on statements of the president-elect and his surrogates, the list of policies, programs, and migration pathways that a second Trump administration would be likely to end, curtail, or sharply reduce include:

  • Use of the CBP One smartphone app to schedule appointments at U.S.-Mexico border ports of entry.
  • Nearly all access to asylum between ports of entry (which would largely continue a Biden administration policy dating back to early June 2024).
  • The Biden administration’s humanitarian parole program for citizens of Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela.
  • Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA), an Obama-era policy that protects from deportation hundreds of thousands of undocumented people who were brought to the United States as children. Challenges to DACA remain before a federal court.
  • Continued Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for citizens of 16 countries, including El Salvador, Haiti, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Venezuela.
  • Other pathways including family reunification programs and the Central American Minors Program.
  • The “Safe Mobility Offices” program offering access to migration pathways for a limited number of some countries’ migrants in Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, and Guatemala.
  • Assistance to UNHCR, IOM, and humanitarian non-profits helping to integrate migrants in other countries in the Americas, and to provide urgent assistance to those in transit.
  • The FEMA Shelter and Services Program (SSP), which supports municipalities and non-profits, including shelters receiving released migrants.
  • Justice Department challenges to Texas’s border and migration crackdowns, including the S.B. 4 law making unauthorized border crossings a state crime.

Initiatives that may be coming after Trump’s January 20 inauguration may include the following policies, or attempts to implement policies:

  • A campaign of “mass deportation” that could eject millions from the United States via sweeps and raids, internment in staging camps, and large-scale removals, possibly employing military personnel.
  • A renewed “Remain in Mexico” program, if the Mexican government is compelled to agree with it.
  • A possible attempt to use a prevalent disease of non-pandemic proportions as a pretext to revive the “Title 42” policy of expelling asylum seekers. If it happens, it would come with a reversal of the Biden administration’s reluctance to expel unaccompanied minors.
  • Expanded use of detention facilities managed by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), often through private contractors.
  • A “lawfare” campaign, similar to what the Republican attorney-general of Texas has been carrying out, seeking to shut down, punish, and otherwise block the work of shelters, legal aid groups, and other service providers assisting migrants.
  • Renewed border wall construction.
  • More National Guard and perhaps regular military deployments to the U.S.-Mexico border.
  • A more aggressive stance toward the Mexican government, especially on blocking migrants and stopping fentanyl. This may include threats of tariffs on Mexican goods if the Mexican government does not comply with hardline policies, like “Remain in Mexico,” that require its cooperation. Some close to Trump have proposed using drones or Special Forces teams to attack organized crime targets inside Mexico without the Mexican government’s consent.
  • Weaker oversight of Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and Border Patrol in human rights abuse cases.
  • Invoking the Constitution’s “invasion” clause to justify hardline policies, essentially classifying migrants and asylum seekers as the equivalent of an invading army.

Exit polls from CNN and NBC News showed that immigration fell on voters’ list of priority issues, well behind the economy. “There has also been growing unease among voters about deporting those who have been in the country for several years,” noted a Newsweek analysis of poll data.

Arizona voters approved Proposition 314, a ballot measure that makes unauthorized border crossing a state crime. It appears to have won more than 60 percent of the vote. The measure is similar to Texas’s S.B. 4, a law passed in late 2023 that remains on hold pending legal challenges.

Opponents of these laws point to the chaos that could result if states adopt and carry out different immigration policies, and the likelihood that the law might empower local and state police to stop people who look like they are of Latino descent merely on suspicion of having crossed the border illegally.

The Republican Party made historic gains in south Texas’s Rio Grande Valley border region, until recently a solidly Democratic area. Rep. Mónica de la Cruz (R), the first Republican elected in the region in many years, won re-election. Rep. Henry Cuéllar (D), who is under indictment on bribery charges, won re-election by a narrower margin than ever. No call has been made in Rep. Vicente González’s (D) re-election bid.

New Mexico’s border House seat remains in the hands of Rep. Gabe Vásquez (D), by about a 4-point margin.

Fearing an end to CBP One, asylum access, and other migration pathways after Trump’s January 20 inauguration, approximately 2,500 to 3,000 people formed a “caravan” in Mexico’s southern border zone city of Tapachula yesterday. We can expect an increase in migration over the next few months as people seek to get to U.S. soil before the new administration starts closing down existing pathways.

People at Tijuana migrant shelters shared with EFE their fear of being stranded by the electoral result after long journeys to the U.S.-Mexico border region.

InsightCrime reported on the U.S. Treasury Department’s recent sanctions against four people and two companies tied to the Ciudad Juárez-based “La Línea” criminal organization. Treasury holds them responsible for colluding with the Jalisco New Generation Cartel to smuggle fentanyl, a drug that U.S. authorities have overwhelmingly seized at California and Arizona border crossings, not the Ciudad Juárez-El Paso area.

Analyses and Feature Stories

Border Report’s Julián Resendiz talked to political and economic leaders in Ciudad Juárez, including Mayor Cruz Pérez Cuellar, before the U.S. voting began. They worry about Donald Trump’s tariff threats, Mexico’s ability to absorb millions of forcibly deported people, threats to “close” the border, and rhetoric bullying Mexico. A finance sector leader doubted Mexico’s ability to meet Trump’s demands to secure its northern border, since the country has been unable to get a handle on its own public security challenges. Mayor Pérez Cuéllar concluded, however, that “the level of interdependence between the two countries is so large that it is practically impossible” to break.

“It’s not going to happen. It’s just not. It’s going to be an empty campaign promise, to be honest with you,” Thaddeus Cleveland, the sheriff of Terrell County, Texas (Fort Worth), a Trump supporter, told Nexstar about the Trump administration’s plans for a “mass deportation” campaign.

At the Border Chronicle, Melissa del Bosque interviewed Nicole Ramos of the Tijuana and San Diego-based assistance and advocacy group Al Otro Lado. The organization is named in a lawsuit that brought an end to CBP’s policy of “metering” asylum seekers (blocking all but a few from approaching ports of entry). Still, Ramos observed, “Anytime an organization like Al Otro Lado, ACLU, or Raices gets a win on asylum access, the U.S. government creates another policy to evade their obligations under that decision.”

In New York, Documented spoke to Venezuelan asylum seekers who fear that Donald Trump’s administration will force them to leave the United States without a hearing.

At The Conversation, Ragini Shah gave a brief overview of the history of the U.S. Border Patrol, concluding that the agency’s culture continues to be “rough” and soft on human rights abusers within the ranks. “Giving the Border Patrol ever more money, agents and higher-tech equipment only spurs more violence and lawlessness,” Shah concluded.

Although the number of people migrating through the Darién Gap region has declined in 2024, the number of minors migrating unaccompanied has increased, according to a Panama-based UNICEF official. Last year, about 3,300 children walked through the Darién jungles unaccompanied. During the first nine months of 2024, 3,800 children have done so. Most are Venezuelan.

Speaking to advocates and experts from Mexico’s northern and southern borders, an Al Jazeera video program looked at the Mexican government’s undeclared but vigorous 2024 policy of blocking migrants and busing them to the country’s south.

Daily Border Links: November 5, 2024

Daily Border Links posts will end this week, on November 8, the Friday after the U.S. elections; we lack resources to maintain this tempo indefinitely. We have been producing these since last November; the archive will remain online.

WOLA will continue to produce Weekly Border Updates, as we have for over four years, and we will continue to send them to the mailing list that you can join here.

Get daily links in your email

Developments

For the second time since October 1, Mexican soldiers have shot and killed migrants. Members of Mexico’s recently created National Guard, much of whose personnel were transferred from the Army, opened fire on a vehicle near Tecate, Baja California, along the border east of Tijuana. Two Colombian migrants were killed in the November 2 incident, and four others were wounded.

Mexico’s Defense Secretariat (SEDENA, the Army and Air Force) contended that the soldiers fired their weapons in self-defense after alleged smugglers fired on them. Witnesses dispute that: “We had no weapons, we are not criminals, they were never shot at,” a survivor told the Tijuana-based investigative publication Zeta. Witnesses say that, before aiding the wounded, the guard members spent a few minutes cleaning up their spent ammunition cartridges, which, if true, would constitute altering a crime scene.

Three guard members who opened fire have been taken off duty while investigations proceed.

On October 1, soldiers opened fire on a vehicle carrying migrants, killing six. In that case, too, SEDENA claimed that the soldiers responded after hearing “detonations,” though witnesses disputed that.

On Monday, the final day before Election Day, Republican candidate Donald Trump vowed, if elected, to impose a 25 percent tariff on Mexican goods, escalating to 100 percent, if Mexico’s government does not act to stop migrants and fentanyl from crossing its northern border. He said that if he wins today’s elections, his first call will be to Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum to convey this threat.

On the eve of the U.S. election, CBS News spoke with migrants awaiting CBP One appointments in shelters in Nogales, Sonora. They fear a Donald Trump victory today would end the CBP One program. “They’re very scared. They think that the asylum system is going to close,” said immigration attorney Alba Jaramillo.

Reporting from just north of Mexico City, the Los Angeles Times Patrick McDonnell spoke with migrants determined to come to the United States regardless of who is elected. “If you’re a migrant, you’re going to suffer whoever is president,” a Honduran man said.

A measure on the ballot in Arizona would make it a state crime to cross the international border without authorization, the Associated Press reported. Proposition 314 resembles S.B. 4, the Texas law–currently on hold facing legal challenges–that could empower law enforcement to enforce a separate state-level immigration policy, and to stop anyone on suspicion of having crossed the border illegally.

Speaking with Cronkite News, border-area political and law-enforcement leaders voiced reluctance to finding themselves having to use scarce resources to enforce immigration laws, a mission for which they are not trained, if Proposition 314 passes.

At one of the busiest official border crossings between Colombia and Venezuela, authorities are measuring an increase in the number of Venezuelan citizens departing the country. “What is undeniable is that the exodus is still latent along this border and has increased after the electoral process of July 28,” reported the Venezuelan daily La Nación. The paper referred to presidential elections almost certainly won by the political opposition, followed by a wave of repression carried out by the current regime, which denies that result.

Analyses and Feature Stories

Thomas Cartwright at Witness at the Border published his latest monthly report on Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) deportation flights. The agency removed migrants on an average of 5.3 flights per weekday in October, up slightly from September but down from over 6.0 per weekday during the summer. Fewer migrant apprehensions at the border are the likeliest reason for the drop. The top removal destination countries were Guatemala (37 flights in October), Honduras (20), Mexico (20), El Salvador (11), Colombia (9), and Ecuador (9).

The report noted that Panama operated 25 deportation flights between August 1 and November 2, with 989 people—about 1.5 percent of Darién Gap migration—taken to Colombia (19), Ecuador (5), and India (1).

At InsightCrime, Steven Dudley and Parker Asmann highlighted the sharp contrasts between two Arizona border-zone sheriffs. Mark Dannels of Cochise County is an outspoken border and migration hardliner who often appears on Fox News and as a Republican congressional hearing witness. David Hathaway, from neighboring Santa Cruz County (which includes Nogales), favors a more humanitarian approach that prevents harm to migrants.

On the Right

Daily Border Links: November 4, 2024

Daily Border Links posts will end this week, on November 8, the Friday after the U.S. elections; we lack resources to maintain this tempo indefinitely. We have been producing these since last November; the archive will remain online.

WOLA will continue to produce Weekly Border Updates, as we have for over four years, and we will continue to send them to the mailing list that you can join here.

Get daily links in your email

Developments

About 200 families participated in the annual “Hugs Not Walls” event organized by the Border Network for Human Rights in El Paso. For a few minutes, people living in El Paso shared a moment in person with loved ones living on the Ciudad Juárez side of the border.

Reporting from coastal Ecuador, Elliot Spagat of the Associated Press documented the spike in organized crime-violence that has made many communities unlivable and populations desperate, spurring an increase in migration that made Ecuador the number-seven nationality of migrants encountered at the U.S.-Mexico border in 2024.

Mexican migration officials “discreetly” dismantled a 500-person migrant “caravan” a few days after its members entered the southern state of Oaxaca from Chiapas. The officials reportedly told people they would be transported further into Oaxaca; while some boarded buses, migrants quoted by Milenio voiced fear that they would instead be sent back to Mexico’s southern border.

Three unnamed U.S. officials told CBS News that migration to the U.S.-Mexico border could “spike” if Donald Trump wins tomorrow’s presidential election, as migrants race to get to U.S. soil before Inauguration Day.

The Gulf Clan, the organized crime group that dominates Colombia’s entrance to the Darién Gap migration route, called on the U.S. and Colombian governments to “join a constructive dialogue” about migration, drugs, and deforestation. The group charges roughly $50 to $80 or more per person to allow migrants to enter the Darién and manages “guides” and other services on the Colombian side of the trail. Colombian President Gustavo Petro’s government is conducting informal talks with the Gulf Clan about its potential demobilization.

Two Colombian migrants were killed, and another five reportedly wounded, in an apparent crossfire involving organized crime in Tecate, along Mexico’s northern border east of San Diego and Tijuana.

Along the border wall in Tijuana, the Casa del Migrante migrant shelter and the coalition Pro Defensa de los Migrantes installed an altar to commemorate migrants who have died trying to reach the United States. “In the last six years, at least 225 people have lost their lives at the border [in the area], either because of extreme weather conditions or because of the violence that stalks them,” said Father Pat Murphy of the Casa del Migrante.

Analyses and Feature Stories

A New York Times analysis concluded that the Biden administration failed to leave behind any lasting solution to the U.S. government’s “fundamentally broken” immigration system. Biden’s reform goals, the Times noted, “were stymied by the need to confront a worldwide surge of displaced people fleeing their homes and a determined Republican opposition.”

The Washington Post noted several Democratic candidates’ rightward drift on border and migration policies in closely fought legislative races.

NPR, too, noted the Biden administration’s turn away from reform and toward “enforcement, restrictions, and punishments – a strategy at times indistinguishable from the Trump administration.”

At its Immigration Impact site, the American Immigration Council explained key aspects of the “Border Act of 2024,” the oft-cited bill that failed to pass the Senate in February 2024 following months of negotiations between a group of Democratic and Republican senators. While the bill would open up some immigration pathways and preserve presidential humanitarian parole authority, it also would codify bans on asylum during busy periods, raise standards some asylum seekers would have to meet, and add funding for barrier construction and migrant detention.

At ProPublica, Emily Green reported on rampant kidnappings of migrants near Ciudad Hidalgo, Chiapas, on Mexico’s southern border en route to Tapachula. With only modest pressure from authorities, criminals are holding hundreds of migrants in livestock pens until they pay a ransom of about $75 per person. “The kidnapping is so widespread and open that migrants walk around Tapachula with stamps of a bird on their forearms as a sign that they paid the ransom.”

Green noted that the situation is worsened by Mexico’s vigorous busing of migrants to Tapachula and other southern Mexican destinations after apprehending them elsewhere in the country. Last week, the Associated Press, too, reported on this suddenly worsening kidnapping wave at Mexico’s southern border.

In an article for the Times of London, Thomas Graham illustrated Mexico’s busing policy, which has helped to reduce the number of migrants entering U.S. custody at the northern border while stranding tens of thousands in Mexico.

The Washington Post’s Arelis Hernández followed the journey of the Orasma family from Azure, Venezuela, to the United States, illustrating the political and logistical obstacles thrown in asylum seekers’ way. The family, once solidly middle class, underwent a harrowing trip through the Darién Gap and atop Mexico’s “La Bestia” cargo train, forced by Mexico’s crackdown to turn to exploitative smugglers. They documented the trip with photos and videos. The Orasmas are now in New York, struggling amid delays in obtaining a work permit.

ProPublica and the Texas Tribune profiled Joe Frank Martinez, a Democrat who is the first Latino sheriff of Val Verde County, which includes the border town of Del Rio. Martínez has come under political fire for perceived leniency toward migrants, as local political opinion has grown more hostile to them, even though border management is not part of the sheriff’s job.

In Laredo, Texas, a border city whose voters have opposed having a border wall built along its riverfront, local leaders worry about such construction happening if Donald Trump wins the election, the Laredo Morning Times reported.

At Mother Jones, Tim Murphy explained that a legal crusade against Texas border-area organizations assisting migrants, led by the state’s hardline attorney general Ken Paxton (R), stems from a conspiracy theory about undocumented migrants being registered to vote in elections.

A Politico article by Myah Ward told the story of Angelina and her father Teodoro, a Guatemalan migrant family separated for seven months by the Trump administration’s family separation policy in 2017, when Angelina was eight. Both continue to suffer trauma symptoms.

A story at the independent Nicaraguan website Confidencial made clear that after emerging from the Darién Gap jungles, migrants’ road through Central America is little, if at all, easier. What is loosely called a “humanitarian corridor” through Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and Honduras is more of an effort “to ‘pass the buck’ and get rid of them as soon as possible.” Among those countries, Nicaragua is a “black hole” without a transportation policy, where officials often demand bribes to allow migrants to pass through.

“As of June 2024, around 86% of asylum-seekers, refugees, and stateless people in the Americas lived in countries highly vulnerable to climate disruptions, where limited capacity hinders effective responses and mitigation efforts,” read a UNHCR fact sheet on “Americas Climate Action.”

On the Right

Weekly Migration in the Three “Busiest” U.S.-Mexico Border Sectors

	San Diego (California) Sector
Feb 28 - Mar 5	8168
March 6-12	8389
March 13-19	6985
March 20-26	7353
Mar 27 - April 7	6698
April 3-9	6997
April 10-16	8959
April 17-23	9513
April 24-30	10023
May 1-7	8303
May 8-14	8016
May 15-21	6157
May 22-28	6777
May 29-Jun 4	8488
June 5-11	7693
June 12-18	
June 19-22	
June 23-29	3696
Jun 30 - Jul 6	3958
July 7-13	
July 14-20	3552
July 21-27	3089
Jul 28 - Aug 3	3174
August 4-10	3389
August 11-17	3237
August 18-24	3063
August 25-31	3557
Sep 1-7	4000
September 8-14	3169
September 15-21	3292
September 22-28	2294
Sep 29 - Oct 5	2803
October 6-12	3016
October 13-19	3710
October 20-26	3228

	Tucson (Arizona) Sector
March 1-7	12200
March 8-14	10500
March 15-21	9000
March 22-28	7200
Mar 29 - Apr 4	6600
April 5-11	6700
April 12-18	7500
April 17-23	7600
Apr 26 - May 2	7900
May 3-9	7300
May 10-16	6700
May 18-24	7400
May 25-31	7800
June 1-6	7500
June 7-13	6900
June 14-20	4900
June 21-27	3700
Jun 28 - Jul 4	2900
July 5-11	2700
July 12-18	2600
July 19-25	2400
Jul 26 - Aug 1	2800
August 2-8	2400
August 9-15	2600
August 16-22	2500
August 23-29	2900
Aug 30 - Sep 5	2700
Sep 6-12	2500
September 13-19	2500
September 20-26	2400
Sep 27-Oct 3	2800
October 4-10	2400
October 11-17	2400
October 18-24	2600
October 25-31	2600

	El Paso
Week 10	7791
Week 11	5656
Week 12	5761
Week 13	7756
Week 14	7112
Week 15	6678
Week 16	8463
Week 17	7028
Week 18	5397
Week 19	5586
Week 20	5397
Week 21	4704
Week 22	5082
Week 23	4417
Week 24	3164
Week 25	3234
Week 26	2702
Week 27	2807
Week 28	2597
Week 29	2296
Week 30	2597
Week 31	2800
Week 32	3010
Week 33	2975
Week 34	2968
Week 35	3171
Week 36	2940
Week 37	2716
Week 38	2968
Week 39	2968
Week 40	2653
Week 41	2380
Week 42	2471
Week 43	2380
Week 44	2394

This chart shows the number of migrants apprehended by Border Patrol each week in the three geographic sectors at the U.S.-Mexico border where the agency apprehends the most people right now. (Border Patrol has nine U.S.-Mexico border sectors.)

Numbers have been remarkably flat since late June, following the Biden administration’s June 4 declaration of a near-total ban on asylum access for migrants arriving at the border between ports of entry. I don’t have a big archive of weekly apprehensions data, but looking at months, it is unusual to see migration remain at a low level following a decline for more than six months or so. We’re at four months now.

The source for the San Diego (California) and Tucson (Arizona) sectors is weekly tweets from the sectors’ chiefs. The source for the El Paso (far west Texas plus New Mexico) sector is the city of El Paso.

Latin America-Related Events in Washington and Online This Week

(Events that I know of, anyway. All times are U.S. Eastern.)

Wednesday, November 6

Thursday, November 7

  • 10:00-11:00 at USIP: First in War, First in Peace: Building Post-Conflict Stability and Democracy (RSVP required).

Friday, November 8

I Don’t Deal Well With Uncertainty

Ahead of Tuesday’s election, most states have early voting. A few states report the party registrations of those who vote early.

Even though this is almost certainly not a useful indicator of the final result, I have a spreadsheet of those states. (If you click on that link, choose “USE TEMPLATE” at the top, which makes your own copy so you can change the orange numbers yourself, which are my assumptions about how each party’s voters might actually vote).

OK, let’s assume that 96 percent of Democratic-registered early voters chose Harris, and 2 percent of all voters chose third parties. What would Harris need in these states to get over 50% of the early vote so far?

(As of 3:20 PM Eastern on November 1)

Alaska: 8,962 more Republicans than Democrats have voted (15%). To get over 50%, Harris would need:

  • 25% of Rs plus 50% of independents, or
  • 18% of Rs plus 55% of independents, or
  • 8% of Rs plus 62% of independents, or
  • 4% of Rs plus 65% of independents.
  • Seems barely attainable, probably out of reach, for Harris.

Arizona: 175,951 more Republicans than Democrats have voted (8.1%). To get over 50%, Harris would need:

Florida: 777,760 more Republicans than Democrats have voted (11.6%). To get over 50%, Harris would need:

  • 16% of Rs plus 50% of independents, or
  • 10% of Rs plus 62% of independents, or
  • 8% of Rs plus 66% of independents, or
  • 4% of Rs plus 74% of independents.
  • Seems out of reach for Harris.

Iowa: 2,099 more Democrats than Republicans have voted (0.4%).

  • Already over 50%.
  • Vote by mail only
  • Hard to tell anything because Iowa is just by mail—which Democrats seem to prefer—and has no real in-person early voting.

Maine’s 2nd Congressional District: 4,725 more Democrats than Republicans have voted (4.7%).

  • Already over 50%.
  • However, expected to go Republican as it did in 2016 and 2020.

Nevada: 47,285 more Republicans than Democrats have voted (3.5%). To get over 50%, Harris would need:

  • 11% of Rs plus 50% of independents, or
  • 8% of Rs plus 53% of independents, or
  • 6% of Rs plus 56% of independents, or
  • 4% of Rs plus 59% of independents.
  • Seems attainable for Harris, but not easy.

New Mexico: 58,326 more Democrats than Republicans have voted (10.4%).

  • Already over 50%.
  • Seems attainable for Harris.

North Carolina: 50,569 more Republicans than Democrats have voted (1.3%). To get over 50%, Harris would need:

  • 6% of Rs plus 50% of independents, or
  • 5% of Rs plus 51% of independents, or
  • 4% of Rs plus 52% of independents, or
  • 3% of Rs plus 53% of independents, or
  • 2% of Rs plus 54% of independents, or
  • 1% of Rs plus 55% of independents.
  • This says early voters polled have chosen Harris by a 2-6 point margin.
  • Seems more attainable than Nevada and Arizona, but it could be tough.

Pennsylvania: 393,147 more Democrats than Republicans have voted (23.5%).

And that’s it. You deal with election anxiety your way, and I’ll deal with it my way. My spreadsheet is here.

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