Adam Isacson

Defense, security, borders, migration, and human rights in Latin America and the United States. May not reflect my employer’s consensus view.

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February 2025

Email Update Is Out

Here’s a new “weekly” e-mail about stuff I’ve been working on, for those who’ve signed up to receive them.

This one links to the latest Border Update, media of two interviews about the border and migration, and a joint statement with colleagues at the border. It has links to events and some recommended readings.

If you visit this site a lot, you probably don’t need an e-mail, too. But if you’d like to get more-or-less regular e-mail updates, scroll to the bottom of this page or click here.

48 Percent

Take a moment today and sit with the fact that 48 percent of our fellow Americans favor taking any category of people and “establishing large detention centers, where people would be sent and held.”

 CBS News Poll – February 5-7, 2025
Adults in the U.S.
31. Creating Large Detention Centers
Would you avor or oppose the U.S. government establishing large detention centers, where people would be sent and held, while the government determinedwhether or not they should be deported?
Gender Age Ideology
Total Male Female Under 30 30-44 45-64 65+ Liberal Moderate ConservativeFavor
 48% 53% 43% 50% 43% 49% 49% 18% 48% 73%
Oppose
 52% 47% 57% 50% 57% 51% 51% 82% 52% 27%
Totals
 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (2,159) (1,053) (1,106) (449) (547) (703) (460) (559) (747) (658)
Party ID Race White by Education
Total Dem Ind Rep White Black Hispanic No Degree 4yr Degree+Favor
 48% 24% 43% 74% 50% 42% 47% 55% 41%
Oppose
 52% 76% 57% 26% 50% 58% 53% 45% 59%
Totals
 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (2,159) (665) (671) (719) (1,361) (269) (344) (845) (516)

Source is a CBS News poll.

At Venezuela’s Efecto Cocuyo: ¿Cómo mejorar el sistema de migración de EE. UU.?

Thank you to Luz Mely Reyes of the independent Venezuelan media outlet Efecto Cocuyo for hosting and sharing this conversation about the Trump administration’s ongoing anti-immigration offensive and the outlines of what a better policy would look like.

It is in Spanish, as is the site’s writeup of the interview. Here’s a quick English translation of that page:

The United States’ immigration policies, now based on a promise from a president who pledged to carry out the largest deportation in history, has generated a devastating impact on the community of migrants living in the United States, whose stay in that country is threatened by a system that makes it difficult for them to apply for asylum and regularize their immigration status through policies that have become obsolete.

To analyze the role of asylum, the causes of migration, the impact of U.S. policies, and recommendations for a more effective and humane management of the migratory phenomenon, Luz Mely Reyes, director of Efecto Cocuyo, spoke with Adam Isacson, director for Defense Oversight at the Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA).

From the “stick and the carrot to just the stick”.

According to Isacson, the Biden administration adopted a mixed strategy, combining incentives (the “carrot”) such as humanitarian parole and the use of CBP One to schedule appointments at the border, with restrictive measures (the “stick”) such as the continuation of Title 42 to remove migrants and rules limiting access to asylum for those without prior appointments. “So, Biden chose something of a carrot and stick arrangement for the many migrants who were arriving.”

The Wola executive describes Trump’s policy as exclusively punitive (“stick only”), with the elimination of humanitarian parole, making access to asylum more difficult, and increasing deportations. He highlights the use of deportation flights, including with military aircraft. “In its two weeks, it has chosen only the stick and ended the carrots. CBP One no longer exists,” he explained.

A “broken and rickety immigration system”

Isacson emphasizes that the U.S. immigration system is “broken” and has a “rickety” capacity to receive, process and evaluate asylum claims. This is despite the fact that the majority of migrants are asylum seekers.

The executive explains that, currently, most migrants’ cases are handled by about 700 immigration judges who must hear more than 3 million cases that take years to resolve.

Isacson explains that although many migrants are fleeing insecurity and violence, for the most part their applications do not meet the strict requirements for asylum in the United States. “One cannot flee, no one cannot get asylum statuses in the U.S. just for being a victim of widespread violence or just for not being able to feed their children because of the situation of bad governance.”

WOLA’s recommendations for more effective immigration management

  • Implement a reform of the 1990 immigration laws to reflect today’s reality, more residency quotas and facilitating application for residency from countries of origin.
  • Strengthen the refugee program to provide a safe alternative to the dangerous journey to the US.
  • Streamline asylum processes to be faster (less than a year), fair and efficient, with more judges and avoiding detention of asylum seekers.
  • Enforce existing laws that grant the right to asylum and protect vulnerable populations.

Isacson also advocates for fair, faster, more efficient, more just decisions with better processing. “There are so many things we have to do right now just to get to common sense and basic legality, that talk of reform is an issue for the future at this point.”

Latin America-Related Events in Washington and Online This Week

(Events that I know of, anyway. All times are U.S. Eastern.)

Tuesday, February 11

Wednesday, February 12

Thursday, February 13

On Greg Sargent’s “Daily Blast” Podcast

I had a great conversation with Greg Sargent at the New Republic for his popular “Daily Blast” podcast, which he released on February 6. The audio is here and a transcript is here. We talked about migration through Mexico and the futility of blowing up a multifaceted bilateral relationship by threatening tariffs over it.

The introductory text for the podcast reads:

Stephen Miller privately worried about imposing overly aggressive tariffs on Mexico because it could imperil Mexico’s effort to apprehend migrants traveling north to our southern border, reports The Wall Street Journal. That revelation is striking. Understood correctly, it’s an acknowledgment that Mexico had already been cracking down on migration, due to an arrangement secured by President Biden. That badly undermines Trump’s scam that his threat of tariffs forced Mexico to do his bidding on the border. We talked to Adam Isacson, an expert on Latin America, who explains what Mexico has actually been doing on immigration, and why it undercuts Trump’s biggest claims about immigration, tariffs, Mexico, and more. Listen to this episode here. A transcript is here.

Weekly U.S.-Mexico Border Update: February 7, 2025

With this series of weekly updates, WOLA seeks to cover the most important developments at the U.S.-Mexico border. See past weekly updates here.

Your donation to WOLA is crucial to keeping these paywall-free and ad-free Updates going. Please contribute now and support our work.

THIS WEEK IN BRIEF:

The many actions and changes following Donald Trump’s January 20 inauguration force a change in this week’s Border Update format. Instead of narratives organized under three or four topics, this Update organizes brief points under the following headings:

  • A tariff threat and a Mexican military deployment: after President Trump threatened to levy tariffs on Mexican imports, the Mexican government agreed to send 10,000 National Guard personnel to the U.S. border zone.
  • Reduced migration, and almost no asylum access, as groups file suit: fewer migrants are arriving at the border, in part because it is now impossible to exercise the right to asylum; a new lawsuit challenges the Trump administration’s border shutdown.
  • The U.S. military at the border and in the deportation effort: the new administration has now sent about 2,100 active-duty troops to the border as the new defense secretary paid a visit and military deportation flights—including one to India—continue.
  • First detainees taken to Guantánamo: two military planes have taken less than two dozen detained migrants, apparently people with ties to a Venezuelan organized crime group, to the notorious terrorist detention facility at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba.
  • Administration cancels TPS for Venezuelans: nearly 350,000 Venezuelans will lose their ability to live and work in the United States in April as the Trump administration reverses an extension that the Biden administration had granted in January. A similar number of Venezuelans face the same fate in September.
  • “Migration diplomacy” in Venezuela and Central America: a Trump administration envoy met with Venezuela’s dictator and appears to have secured a deal to allow deportation flights. The new secretary of state visited Central America and secured increased cooperation against migration, including a deal to send prisoners to El Salvador’s growing jails.
  • Mass deportation proceeds as Congress prepares a big funding bill: ICE is ramping up its arrests, detentions, and removals in the U.S. interior as Congress prepares a spending measure that could total $150 billion for border security.
  • Texas seeks reimbursement for “Operation Lone Star”: Texas’s governor, a Trump ally, is offering the federal government use of facilities built with state funds while asking for reimbursement of $11 billion spent on its border crackdown. Texas National Guard troops may now arrest migrants for CBP.

THE FULL UPDATE:

Read More

Email Update Is Out

Here’s a new “weekly” e-mail about stuff I’ve been working on, for those who’ve signed up to receive them.

This one links to the latest Border Update and our analysis of the USAID aid freeze. It has a video I made while walking around a deserted downtown Washington looking at all the hotspots where a coup is reportedly taking place inside. It has links to events and some recommended readings.

If you visit this site a lot, you probably don’t need an e-mail, too. But if you’d like to get more-or-less regular e-mail updates, scroll to the bottom of this page or click here.

Latin America-Related Events in Washington and Online This Week

(Events that I know of, anyway. All times are U.S. Eastern.)

Monday, February 3

  • 12:00 at atlanticcouncil.com: Why Ecuador matters for the future of the Western Hemisphere’s security (RSVP required).

Tuesday, February 4

Wednesday, February 5

  • 10:00-11:00 at the Inter-American Dialogue and Online: Peru’s Path Forward: Navigating Political, Economic, and Global Dynamics (RSVP required).
  • 4:30-6:00 at Georgetown University and online: Global Outlook: Latin America’s Place in the World (RSVP required).

Thursday, February 6

  • 10:00 in Room 2123, Rayburn House Office Building: Hearing of the House Energy and Commerce Health Subcommittee on Combatting Existing and Emerging Illicit Drug Threats.
  • 10:00-11:00 at the Inter-American Dialogue and online: A Roadmap to Protect Independent Journalism in Repressive Countries (RSVP required).
  • 4:30-6:00 at Georgetown University and online: Breaking Latin America’s Cycle of Low Growth and Violence (RSVP required).

From WOLA: Trump’s Pause of U.S. Foreign Assistance to Latin America: An “America Last” Policy

Here is a piece that WOLA published last Friday (January 31) in response to the Trump administration’s 90-day freeze on most foreign aid. It’s even more urgent now: since we published it, the President and Elon Musk (which is which isn’t always clear) have been on a full-bore offensive to abolish USAID.

Here’s the intro, but you can read the whole thing at WOLA’s site.

The unprecedented pause and potential elimination of many U.S. foreign assistance programs, announced in President Trump’s executive order “Reevaluating and Realigning United States Foreign Aid,” has caused shock waves worldwide. The State Department has since backtracked and taken the welcome move to exclude “life-saving humanitarian assistance” from this freeze. Still, most programs remain on long-term hold even though they support priorities that the Trump administration claims to uphold, like curbing mass migration, reducing illicit drug supplies, and fostering economic prosperity.

State Department and USAID-managed foreign assistance to Latin America and the Caribbean totaled a little over $2 billion in FY 2023, the most recent year for which an actual amount is available. While this is a fraction of the $45 billion in base U.S. foreign assistance obligated for State and USAID programs that year, it is enough to guarantee that great harm will result from the 90-day pause in use of funds and the possibility that agreed-upon programs might be modified or discontinued. That is causing great uncertainty and alarm among “implementing partners”—civil society organizations, international organizations, and contractors region-wide- : they are being forced to cancel events, lay off staff, and determine how or if they will be able to honor commitments. 

The freeze applies beyond development and human rights efforts to encompass programs that groups like WOLA have often critiqued. Much U.S. military and police aid, including training programs and counter-drug eradication and interdiction funded through the State Department’s International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs (INL) Bureau, is now on hold. 

Far from making the United States safer, stronger, and more prosperous, the pause in funding and uncertainty about future funds undermine fundamental U.S. interests to an extent that is difficult to comprehend. It is actively weakening efforts to address the reasons millions are fleeing Latin America and the Caribbean, like armed conflicts, violent organized crime, rampant corruption, democratic backsliding, closing civic space, weak justice systems and rule of law, inadequate policing and public security, gender-based violence, exclusion from formal markets, and vulnerability to climate change. The aid freeze is an exquisitely wrapped gift to the United States’ regional adversaries, from dictators to drug lords to human smugglers to great-power rivals like China. 

Read the whole thing here.

February 2, 2025: A Strangely Quiet Walk Through Trump and Musk’s Washington

I heard there’s a slow-motion coup happening in Washington this weekend, and I needed some exercise, so I visited some of the scenes where it’s all going down right now.

The result: it was lonely.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.