Adam Isacson

Defense, security, borders, migration, and human rights in Latin America and the United States. May not reflect my employer’s consensus view.

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April 2025

April 18, 2025 — 0

Weekly U.S.-Mexico Border Update: April 18, 2025

Kilmar Abrego Garcia’s Case and Nayib Bukele’s Washington visit; The Alien Enemies Act; The Roosevelt Reservation and other military developments; March migration data show further declines; Mass deportation and the coming “reconciliation” funding bill

With this series of weekly updates, WOLA seeks to cover the most important developments at the U.S.-Mexico border. See past weekly updates here.

Your donation to WOLA is crucial to keeping these paywall-free and ad-free Updates going. Please contribute now and support our work.

THIS WEEK IN BRIEF:

  • Kilmar Abrego Garcia’s Case and Nayib Bukele’s Washington visit: A high-stakes legal battle continues between the federal courts and the Trump administration over the case of a Salvadoran man who was wrongly deported and sent to a notorious mega-prison in his home country. During an Oval Office visit, the country’s authoritarian-trending president struck a defiant tone alongside President Trump, calling into question the administration’s compliance with a Supreme Court requirement that it “facilitate” the return of Kilmar Abrego Garcia. Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Maryland) met Abrego Garcia briefly during a visit to El Salvador.
  • The Alien Enemies Act: Evidence continues to show that most of the 238 Venezuelan men sent to the Salvadoran mega-prison on March 15 faced no allegations of criminal activity or gang ties. A judge who had sought to stop their removal is now considering whether to hold Trump administration officials in contempt of court.
  • The Roosevelt Reservation and other military developments: The White House has declared that a 20-yard fringe of territory along the border in California, Arizona, and New Mexico is now the equivalent of a “military installation.” This raises important questions about the role of the U.S. military on U.S. soil. As is widely expected, these questions will deepen if the administration invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807.
  • March migration data show further declines: With 7,181 Border Patrol apprehensions, March 2025 was one of the quietest months at the U.S.-Mexico border since the 1960s. The main reason is the Trump administration’s shutdown of asylum access at the border. The ratio of uniformed personnel at the border to March migrant apprehensions is now about 4.6 to 1.
  • Mass deportation and the coming “reconciliation” funding bill: Congress is edging closer to considering a massive budget bill that would multiply the U.S. government’s ability to deport undocumented migrants on an enormous scale. The Trump administration’s unstated goal appears to be 1 million deportations during its first year, which seems unlikely. Meanwhile, the administration is rapidly undoing documented statuses granted by the Biden administration.

THE FULL UPDATE:

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April 13, 2025 — 0

Latin America-Related Events in Washington and Online This Week

7 events about Latin America this week, that I know about, that can be attended in person in Washington or online anywhere.

(Events that I know of, anyway. All times are U.S. Eastern.)

Monday, April 14

Wednesday, April 16

  • 2:00pm at atlanticcouncil.org: Navigating the US-PRC tech competition in the Global South (RSVP required).
  • 3:00pm at Georgetown University: Data for Humanity: How AI is Transforming Development and Business in Latin America (RSVP required).

Friday, April 18

  • 9:30am at atlanticcouncil.org: Banking on Belém: Mobilizing finance for energy and nature in the Global South (RSVP required).
April 11, 2025 — 0

Weekly U.S.-Mexico Border Update: April 11, 2025

El Salvador renditions reach the Supreme Court; Evidence points to little criminality among those rushed to El Salvador’s mega-prison; A $45 billion bill for migrant detention foreseen as budget bill moves slowly through Congress; New measures to undo legal pathways and punish the undocumented; A woman dies by suicide in Border Patrol custody as internal oversight is decimated; Notes on the impact in Mexico

With this series of weekly updates, WOLA seeks to cover the most important developments at the U.S.-Mexico border. See past weekly updates here.

Your donation to WOLA is crucial to keeping these paywall-free and ad-free Updates going. Please contribute now and support our work.

THIS WEEK IN BRIEF:

  • El Salvador renditions reach the Supreme Court: The Supreme Court made two rulings related to the Trump administration’s practice of sending migrants to a mega-prison in El Salvador. The first requires that people subjected to rapid expulsion under the Alien Enemies Act have a reasonable chance to defend themselves. The second upholds, though softens, a lower-court judge’s requirement that the administration seek the release and return of a wrongfully expelled Salvadoran man. The President of El Salvador is to visit Washington on April 14.
  • Evidence points to little criminality among those rushed to El Salvador’s mega-prison: As experts cast doubt on tattoos as a sign of Venezuelan gang membership, three studies indicate that a substantial majority of those rendered to El Salvador had no known criminal records.
  • A $45 billion bill for migrant detention foreseen as budget bill moves slowly through Congress: A request for proposals issued to contractors foresees ramping up migrant detention spending sixfold, to $45 billion over two years. That would be paid for by a giant one-time appropriation slowly working through the Republican-majority Congress, which cleared an important initial hurdle this week.
  • New measures to undo legal pathways and punish the undocumented: This week saw CBP One app recipients receive an order to self-deport, a proposal to fine migrants up to $998 per day if they stay after receiving removal orders, movement toward a registry of undocumented migrants, and a continued legal fight over Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Venezuelans.
  • A woman dies by suicide in Border Patrol custody as internal oversight is decimated: A female citizen of China died by suicide in a California Border Patrol station. This and other recent incidents raise questions about oversight at a time when the Trump administration has effectively closed down the Department of Homeland Security’s (DHS) internal investigative agencies.
  • Notes on the impact in Mexico: Media reports covered the situation of migrants stranded in Mexico by the Trump administration’s revocation of asylum access at the border, including Venezuelans requesting repatriation flights and Haitians who are especially vulnerable to harm.

THE FULL UPDATE:

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April 6, 2025 — 0

Latin America-Related Events in Washington and Online This Week

4 events about Latin America this week, that I know about, that can be attended in person in Washington or online anywhere.

(Events that I know of, anyway. All times are U.S. Eastern.)

Tuesday, April 8

Wednesday, April 9

April 5, 2025 — 0

Improbable, but no longer impossible

Maybe President Bukele will build a new wing at his mega-prison to hold all the Trump administration critics who get sent there as “no-takebacks mistakes,” as happened with supposedly non-deportable Salvadoran citizen Kilmar Ábrego García.

Maybe President Bukele will build a new wing at his mega-prison to hold all the Trump administration critics who get sent there as “no-takebacks mistakes,” as happened with supposedly non-deportable Salvadoran citizen Kilmar Ábrego García.

From this week’s WOLA Border Update:

“Although the Alien Enemies Act does not apply to American citizens, without due process, a citizen could be mistakenly deported to El Salvador, held indefinitely, and reliant on the same administration that deported them to realize the error and decide to retrieve them,” wrote Adam Serwer at the Atlantic. Greg Sargent echoed that at the New Republic, quoting Ábrego García’s attorney Simon Sandoval-Moshenberg: “if the government can remove people in ‘error’ without recourse, then that logic could ‘apply with equal force to U.S. citizens.’”

If that plays out, by late 2025, two shaven-headed U.S. citizens in El Salvador’s Center for Confinement of Terrorism prison could have a conversation like this:

“What are you in for?”

“I complained about the tariffs on social media. You?”

“Tesla protest. But ICE said I was a Venezuelan gang member.”

See also:

April 4, 2025 — 0

Imagine Needing a Judge to Tell You to Undo a Mistake Like This

How twisted do you have to be to need a court to tell you to do this basic thing? Ábrego García was here legally, convicted of nothing, and sent to El Salvador's terror jail. ICE recognized the error. They should've asked Nayib Bukele to return him weeks ago.
Based on the record before the Court, I find that this Court retains subject matter jurisdiction. I further find that: (1) Plaintiffs are likely to succeed on the merits because Abrego Garcia was removed to El Salvador in violation of the Immigration and Nationality Act, specifically,&,U.S.C. § 1231(b)(3)(A), and without any legal process; (2) his continued presence TRUOS FISalyador for obvious reasons, constitutes irreparable harm; (3) the balance of equities and the public interest weigh in favor of returning him to the United States; and (4) issuance of a preliminary injunction without further delay is necessary to restore him to the status quo and to avoid ongoing irreparable harm resulting from Abrego Garcia's unlawful removal. For the reasons stated above, the Court hereby DIRECTS Defendants to return Abrego Garcia to the United States no later than 11:59 PM on April 7th, 2025. A memorandum opinion further setting forth the basis for this ruling will be issued in due course.

From the preliminary injunction granted today by Judge Paula Xinis in Maryland, requiring the Department of Homeland Security to bring back Kilmar Ábrego García from El Salvador’s Center for the Confinement of Terrorism (CECOT) prison, where the Trump administration put him on March 15.

How twisted do you have to be to need a court to tell you to do this basic thing? Ábrego García was here legally, convicted of nothing, and sent to El Salvador’s terror jail. ICE recognized the error. They should’ve asked Nayib Bukele to return him weeks ago.

See also:

April 4, 2025 — 0

Weekly U.S.-Mexico Border Update: April 4, 2025

The Alien Enemies Act invocation and El Salvador renditions have days in court, Notes about deportation flights, Budget resolution to move in Senate, Notes on the U.S. military’s border and migration role, Low border numbers in March, Noem’s travel to Latin America

With this series of weekly updates, WOLA seeks to cover the most important developments at the U.S.-Mexico border. See past weekly updates here.

Your donation to WOLA is crucial to keeping these paywall-free and ad-free Updates going. Please contribute now and support our work.

THIS WEEK IN BRIEF:

  • The Alien Enemies Act invocation and El Salvador renditions have days in court: The Trump administration sent 17 more detained people—10 Salvadorans and 7 Venezuelans—from Guantánamo to El Salvador’s Center for Containment of Terrorism (CECOT) prison. Federal courts are probing violations of a restraining order against the use of the Alien Enemies Act, as we continue to learn about people removed to the Salvadoran prison despite a lack of criminal background. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) recognized that at least one man, Kilmar Ábrego García, was removed in error, but the administration is not asking El Salvador to release him.
  • Notes about deportation flights: A Boston federal judge barred the Trump administration from deporting migrants to third countries without allowing them to argue that they might be harmed. Deportation flights to Venezuela have resumed. Reports highlight unsafe conditions and abuse aboard ICE’s deportation flights with little accountability or transparency.
  • Budget resolution to move in Senate: The Senate is preparing to vote on a budget resolution that sets the stage for a larger spending bill advancing President Trump’s “mass deportation” and border-hardening agenda. The forthcoming “reconciliation” bill could allocate $90–175 billion over 10 years for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). Passed by a simple majority, it would bypass the filibuster and exclude Democrats.
  • Notes on the U.S. military’s border and migration role: The U.S. military presence at the border has grown to over 6,700 active-duty troops, expected to grow to 10,000. Roles and equipment are expanding, and the price tag since January 20 is now $376 million since January 20. The Guantánamo base now holds about 85 migrants at a very high cost. Senators visiting the base criticized it as a wasteful, likely illegal attempt to bypass due process.
  • Low border numbers in March: Border Patrol recorded 7,180 migrant apprehensions in March, the lowest monthly total in decades, amid a near-total shutdown of asylum access. Shelters are empty, aid groups are scaling back, and migrant injuries from wall falls have declined. In Panama, migration through the Darién Gap plummeted to less than 200 in March.
  • Noem’s travel to Latin America: Homeland Security Secretary Kristie Noem visited El Salvador, Colombia, and Mexico. Her appearance at El Salvador’s CECOT, shooting a video using jailed people as a backdrop,  drew criticism. In Colombia, Noem signed a biometric data-sharing agreement. In Mexico, she claimed some progress toward a similar deal.

THE FULL UPDATE:

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April 3, 2025 — 0

WOLA Podcast: “Global Drug Policy: ‘Countries are being freed up to actually speak their minds’”

Podcast: A belligerent U.S. delegation got isolated at a UN drug policy meeting in March, where there were important breakthroughs for reform.

A belligerent U.S. delegation got isolated at a UN drug policy meeting in March, where there were important breakthroughs for reform. I got a great rundown from three people who were there in the latest WOLA Podcast. Here’s the text of the landing page at WOLA’s website.

For the second year in a row, what had been an uneventful, consensus-driven United Nations meeting on drug policy saw unexpected drama and signs of real change.

At the 68th session of the UN Commission on Narcotic Drugs (CND) in Vienna in March 2025, governments approved the formation of an independent expert commission to recommend changes to the architecture of global drug policy, which has changed little since the early 1960s.

Colombia again played a catalytic role, as it did in 2024. But this time, the United States—under the new Trump administration—tried to block nearly everything, isolating itself diplomatically in the process.

In this episode of the WOLA Podcast, Adam Isacson speaks with three experts who were in Vienna:

  • Ann Fordham, Executive Director of the International Drug Policy Consortium (IDPC), a network of 195 organizations working to reform global drug policy.
  • Isabel Pereira, Senior Coordinator for drug policy at DeJusticia, a Bogotá-based think tank and advocacy group.
  • John Walsh, WOLA’s Director for Drug Policy, who has tracked the UN’s drug control system since the 1980s.

The conversation traces the slow evolution of the UN drug control system—from decades of punitive consensus to today’s shifting coalitions, unprecedented votes, and long-overdue reviews.

Much of the episode centers on a breakthrough: a new resolution establishing an “independent external review” of the UN’s own drug control institutions. For years, countries like Colombia have called for an honest assessment of the system’s failings. Now, thanks to a resolution spearheaded by Colombia and passed over U.S. opposition, that review is happening. The details still matter: how independent the expert panel will truly be, who funds it, and whether the review can influence the hard architecture of the drug control treaties.

“Vienna was very much a space where delegates would just pat each other on the back on how well we’re doing the war on drugs,” Pereira said. “The spirit of Vienna created a sort of lockdown situation on debate, true debate,” added Walsh. “Civil society enlivened the Vienna atmosphere” in recent years, he noted, “with new debates, new arguments.” Now, this international space has become more dynamic.

The guests also discuss coca leaf: its decades-old listing as a Schedule I narcotic, Bolivia’s and Colombia’s ongoing push for a scientific review, and the possibility of a pivotal vote in 2026. They stress how traditional knowledge—especially from Indigenous communities—must be recognized as legitimate scientific input during that review.

Underlying it all is a major diplomatic shift. Colombia is using the UN system to demand drug policy grounded in health, human rights, and development—not militarized prohibition. But with Petro’s term ending in 2026, it’s unclear who will pick up the baton.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration is signaling a return to zero-tolerance drug war policies—and burning bridges with potential allies in the process. “They behaved so terribly. I mean, they broke with all diplomatic niceties,” said Fordham. “The U.S. just went for it in their opening statement… It was frankly an embarrassing, but also pretty shocking statement.”

Despite the uncertainty, all three guests agree: civil society is no longer on the sidelines. NGOs and experts are shaping debates, challenging rigid thinking in Vienna, and holding governments to account.

Read more:

Download this podcast episode’s .mp3 file here. Listen to WOLA’s Latin America Today podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, iHeartRadio, or wherever you subscribe to podcasts. The main feed is here.

April 2, 2025 — 1

0.007

On an average day at the U.S.-Mexico border in March, each armed, uniformed soldier or agent encountered 0.007 migrants.

On an average day at the U.S.-Mexico border in March, each armed, uniformed soldier or agent encountered 0.007 migrants.

Uniformed Personnel to Migrants at the Border: A 4.6-to 1 Ratio About 32,800 total personnel 4,500 Texas State National Guard Personnel 2,200 Federal National Guard Personnel 16,500 Border Patrol Agents 9,600 Active-Duty Military Personnel 7,180 Migrants Apprehended by Border Patrol in March 2025 Does not include CBP officers at ports of entry, or Texas Department of Public Safety personnel on border missions. Sources: DHS OIG https://bit.ly/dhsoig-2324; Stars and Stripes https://bit.ly/43Hnstd; CNN https://cnn.it/3DDFh10; CBP https://bit.ly/cbp-2503

Sources: Border Patrol and CBP Officers: DHS OIG https://bit.ly/dhsoig-2324; Active-duty military: Stars and Stripes https://bit.ly/43Hnstd; Texas and federal National Guard: CNN https://cnn.it/3DDFh10; March apprehensions: CBP https://bit.ly/cbp-2503.

April 2, 2025 — 0

March Migrant Apprehensions at the U.S.-Mexico Border: Very Low, But Not a Record

Border Patrol migrant apprehensions at the U.S.-Mexico border were low in March 2025 -- but not "the lowest in history" as CBP oddly claims.

“The month of March recorded the lowest southwest border crossings in history,” reads a release put out by Customs and Border Protection (CBP) yesterday, adding, “In March, the Border Patrol data shows that around 7,180 southwest border crossings were recorded.”

7,180 Border Patrol apprehensions is very few. It is the fewest since Border Patrol (part of CBP) started reporting monthly data. But Border Patrol only started doing that in 2000.

If you look back further, to Border Patrol’s founding in 1925, you have to get monthly numbers by taking annual totals and dividing them by 12. Those averages show that March 2025 was not, in fact, the “lowest in history.”

There were fewer migrants in the 1950s-1960s and before World War II. And those low numbers were sustained over 12 months.

See also:

April 2, 2025 — 0

Back in the Headlines at Age 84

By vindictively revoking his visa, the Trump administration just did Osca Arias a favor, raising his profile again at age 84.

30 years ago, I was in Costa Rica working at the foundation that Oscar Arias founded with his Nobel Peace Prize money. It was my first paid job in this field (if $800 per month, minus my $400 in student loan payments, counts as “paid.”)

By vindictively revoking his visa, the Trump administration just did “don Óscar” a favor, raising his profile again at age 84. He held a news conference about it yesterday, covered by the New York Times and other outlets.

“I don’t know why they have revoked my visa,” Mr. Arias said at the news conference. “I don’t know if the revoking of my visa is some sort of punishment, because I say what I think.”

Mr. Arias has been critical of the Trump administration on social media. In February, he wrote on Facebook that Mr. Trump behaved like “a Roman emperor, telling the rest of the world what to do.”

“If someone wants to punish me in the hopes of silencing me, that isn’t going to work,” Mr. Arias said on Tuesday. He said that he did not have plans to travel to the United States, and did not provide information about what kind of visa he had and when it was set to expire.

April 1, 2025 — 0

To the West This Evening (in the Northern Hemisphere)

A new moon, next to the Pleiades (a cluster of young stars in the constellation Taurus, just below the moon here), along with Jupiter (the bright object at top) and, just above the tree to the right of the airplane, the red giant star Aldebaran, also in Taurus, 65 light years away.

I took this with my phone while taking out the garbage here in DC.

April 1, 2025 — 0

“I’m not trying to hit cleanup. I’m bringing orange slices.”

Legal expert Elie Mystal of The Nation, with Anand Giridharadas at The Ink, discuss generational change in today's urgently needed political activism:

I enjoyed and recommend this conversation with legal expert Elie Mystal of The Nation, with Anand Giridharadas at The Ink.

But as a Gen X-er, I especially liked this part, about generational change in today’s urgently needed political activism:

One of the things that I have said in those rooms to generally older geriatric people is to get the hell out of the way of the young folks. Like, there is a sense amongst older people, I have found, that they don’t want to be a part of it if they’re not out front of it, if they’re not the leader of the whatever thing. And that they have earned that right by their age and experience.

And some of it comes from a good place. Like, they have something to give and something to teach and been there, done that. And I respect all of that.

But by the same token, your time’s up. You had your chance.

I’m Gen X. We had our shot. We blew it. Sorry.

But it’s time for the next guys to step up.

And as a Gen Xer—and don’t even get me started on boomers—as a Gen Xer, my job is to help.

Like, I’m a dad. I bring orange slices to the game. I’m not trying to get out there and go—I’m not trying to hit cleanup. I’m bringing orange slices. I’m taking the kids out for pizza afterwards.

Because I now, I have a mortgage now. I live in a house. I’ve got things. I can take people out for pizza.

But I need the person who doesn’t have a house, who doesn’t have a mortgage, who’s out there on the streets. That’s the person that’s going to be the leader, that’s going to be out there with the time and effort and whatever to do it.

April 1, 2025 — 0

Day 17 for the 238 Venezuelans Sent to El Salvador

His head shaved, unable to contact anyone, with no end date to his captivity, Andry Hernández Romero, a gay makeup artist from Venezuela whose tattoos commemorate his town’s Epiphany festival, is starting his 17th day deep inside El Salvador’s “Confinement of Terrorism” prison. And the Trump administration put him there.

His head shaved, unable to contact anyone, with no end date to his captivity, Andry Hernández Romero, a gay makeup artist from Venezuela whose tattoos commemorate his town’s Epiphany festival, is starting his 17th day deep inside El Salvador’s “Confinement of Terrorism” prison.

And the Trump administration put him there.

Jonathan Blitzer, at the New Yorker, just published a 5,000-word overview of what we know so far.

As part of the White House’s effort to invoke the Alien Enemies Act, ICE officers received a document called the “Alien Enemy Validation Guide,” which provided a point system based on different categories of incriminating behavior or associations. If an immigrant in custody scored six points or higher, according to the rubric, he “may be validated” as a gang member. Tattoos, which fall under the “Symbolism” category, constitute four points; social-media posts “displaying” gang symbols are two points. Using “open source material,” agents at the investigative arm of ICE compiled photos of tattoos considered suspicious: crowns, stars, the Michael Jordan Jumpman logo.

It is shaping up to be an “Abu Ghraib” or “family separation” level of stain on the United States, and there’s no resolution yet. On Thursday afternoon, the judge overseeing litigation about this use of the “Alien Enemies Act” will hold a hearing requiring the Trump administration “to show cause why they did not violate the Court’s Temporary Restraining Orders.”

See also:

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.