We’re hearing word from Los Angeles Times and Reuters reporters that the Biden administration plans to announce today its new rule curtailing asylum for migrants who passed through third countries on their way to the U.S.-Mexico border. (That is, anyone who is not Mexican.)

This could not only trigger a humanitarian crisis, it is almost certainly illegal and would depend on Mexico’s government taking back thousands—perhaps tens of thousands—of vulnerable people.

WOLA explained this in a report, written principally by me, published last Friday.

Excerpt from the linked report: The transit ban “In the coming weeks,” the administration’s Supreme Court brief read, it will issue a proposed rule (first announced on January 5) that would reject many asylum seekers who pass through third countries en route to the U.S.-Mexico border and do not first request asylum in those countries. Such migrants “will be subject to a rebuttable presumption of asylum ineligibility in the United States unless they meet exceptions that will be specified.” Migrants’ rights advocates call this “transit ban” or “asylum ban” a “death sentence” because it is likely to return to danger people with legitimate protection claims. Under this ban, the only nationality not subject to this ineligibility would be Mexicans, who pass through no other country on their way to the border. The Trump administration put in place a similar ban in 2019, only to see it struck down in federal court. The Immigration and Nationality Act is quite clear that asylum seekers can
Excerpt from the linked report: Negotiating with Mexico to make it all possible Both the “transit ban” and expedited removal could involve swift deportation of large numbers of migrants, many of them from countries very far from the U.S.-Mexico border. Flying them back to their countries of origin would be so costly that most would likely instead be released into the United States with dates to appear in U.S. immigration court. To avoid that outcome, the Biden administration is negotiating for Mexico’s government to accept deportees across the land border, as it has done in over 2.4 million Title 42 expulsions and over 72,000 implementations of the now-defunct “Remain in Mexico” program. The Washington Post revealed on February 8, citing “four current and former U.S. officials familiar with the discussions,” that talks with Mexican officials are ongoing. It is quite possible, then, that U.S. authorities may continue to send large numbers of protection-seeking migrants back into Mex