herbicide fumigation in Colombia reducing the supply of cocaine, or
is it just pushing coca cultivation over Colombia's borders, into Peru
and Bolivia? Neither the United States' nor the United Nations' preliminary
estimates for the area's coca cultivation in 2003 offer a definitive
Department press release, citing "survey-sampling techniques
and satellite imagery," found that overall levels of coca cultivation
in Peru and Bolivia were 1,400 hectares (or 2 percent) lower in 2003
than in 2002. These numbers contradict preliminary UN estimates.
Department's "2003 Coca Cultivation Estimates for Bolivia and
Peru" reports that, while cultivation in traditional coca-growing
areas has remained steady or even increased, net coca cultivation
in the two countries has dropped to 59,600 hectares, from 61,000 at
the end of 2002. A 17% increase in coca cultivation in Bolivia in
2003, it said, was offset by a net 15% decrease in Peru. 
Klaus Nyholm, the Colombia director of the United Nations Office on
Drugs and Crime, has said coca cultivation in the two countries may
have grown by as much as 21%. During a September 16 release of preliminary
estimates for Colombia, Nyholm noted that Peru and Bolivia could experience
a nearly 15,000-hectare increase in 2003. 
to the discrepancy between its own numbers and UN estimates, the White
House argues that UN data collection techniques differ from U.S. government
methods. However, some Peruvian observers have questioned US findings
that drug cultivation has decreased in that country. Roger Rumrill,
a Peruvian anti-drugs expert, told Reuters that Peruvian officials,
under U.S. pressure for progress in its international "War on
Drugs," have been inflating eradication figures. 
United States, Department of State, "State Dept. Issues 2003
Coca Cultivation Estimates for Bolivia and Peru" (Washington:
State Department, November 18, 2003) <http://usinfo.state.gov/xarchives/display.html?p=washfile-english&y=2003&m=November&x=20031118105938nesnom0.6506616&t=usinfo/wf-latest.html>.
"U.S. says coca area up in Bolivia, down in Peru," Reuters,
November 18, 2003 <http://famulus.msnbc.com/FamulusIntl/reuters11-17-144932.asp?reg=AMERICAS>.
"Peru says beats coca eradication target," Reuters, November
19, 2003 <http://famulus.msnbc.com/FamulusIntl/reuters11-18-165242.asp?reg=AMERICAS>.