Working through my 2024 election anxiety with a look at the early vote in a few states.

Ahead of Tuesday’s election, most states have early voting. A few states report the party registrations of those who vote early.

Even though this is almost certainly not a useful indicator of the final result, I have a spreadsheet of those states. (If you click on that link, choose “USE TEMPLATE” at the top, which makes your own copy so you can change the orange numbers yourself, which are my assumptions about how each party’s voters might actually vote).

OK, let’s assume that 96 percent of Democratic-registered early voters chose Harris, and 2 percent of all voters chose third parties. What would Harris need in these states to get over 50% of the early vote so far?

(As of 3:20 PM Eastern on November 1)

Alaska: 8,962 more Republicans than Democrats have voted (15%). To get over 50%, Harris would need:

  • 25% of Rs plus 50% of independents, or
  • 18% of Rs plus 55% of independents, or
  • 8% of Rs plus 62% of independents, or
  • 4% of Rs plus 65% of independents.
  • Seems barely attainable, probably out of reach, for Harris.

Arizona: 175,951 more Republicans than Democrats have voted (8.1%). To get over 50%, Harris would need:

Florida: 777,760 more Republicans than Democrats have voted (11.6%). To get over 50%, Harris would need:

  • 16% of Rs plus 50% of independents, or
  • 10% of Rs plus 62% of independents, or
  • 8% of Rs plus 66% of independents, or
  • 4% of Rs plus 74% of independents.
  • Seems out of reach for Harris.

Iowa: 2,099 more Democrats than Republicans have voted (0.4%).

  • Already over 50%.
  • Vote by mail only
  • Hard to tell anything because Iowa is just by mail—which Democrats seem to prefer—and has no real in-person early voting.

Maine’s 2nd Congressional District: 4,725 more Democrats than Republicans have voted (4.7%).

  • Already over 50%.
  • However, expected to go Republican as it did in 2016 and 2020.

Nevada: 47,285 more Republicans than Democrats have voted (3.5%). To get over 50%, Harris would need:

  • 11% of Rs plus 50% of independents, or
  • 8% of Rs plus 53% of independents, or
  • 6% of Rs plus 56% of independents, or
  • 4% of Rs plus 59% of independents.
  • Seems attainable for Harris, but not easy.

New Mexico: 58,326 more Democrats than Republicans have voted (10.4%).

  • Already over 50%.
  • Seems attainable for Harris.

North Carolina: 50,569 more Republicans than Democrats have voted (1.3%). To get over 50%, Harris would need:

  • 6% of Rs plus 50% of independents, or
  • 5% of Rs plus 51% of independents, or
  • 4% of Rs plus 52% of independents, or
  • 3% of Rs plus 53% of independents, or
  • 2% of Rs plus 54% of independents, or
  • 1% of Rs plus 55% of independents.
  • This says early voters polled have chosen Harris by a 2-6 point margin.
  • Seems more attainable than Nevada and Arizona, but it could be tough.

Pennsylvania: 393,147 more Democrats than Republicans have voted (23.5%).

And that’s it. You deal with election anxiety your way, and I’ll deal with it my way. My spreadsheet is here.