Adam Isacson

Defense, security, borders, migration, and human rights in Latin America and the United States. May not reflect my employer’s consensus view.

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Haiti

November 16, 2023 — 0

Darién Gap Migration Dipped in October

Fresh numbers from Panama show a 35 percent drop, from September to October, in the number of people migrating through the Darién Gap. The main cause was a 41 percent decline in the number of citizens of Venezuela (blue in the chart) who traveled through the treacherous jungle region.

Monthly Migration Through Panama’s Darién Gap October 2023: Venezuela 70%, Haiti (plus Brazil and Chile) 8%, China 6.0%, Ecuador 5.8%, Colombia 4%, all others <2% Since January 2020: Venezuela 53%, Haiti (plus Brazil and Chile) 22%, Ecuador 10%, Cuba 3%, all others <3% Venezuela Haiti (plus Brazil and Chile) Ecuador Cuba Colombia China India Afghanistan Bangladesh Other Countries 20-Jan 9 1332 11 48 7 16 115 20-Feb 20 1535 4 45 2 9 48 162 20-Mar 3 972 6 16 2 7 10 83 20-Apr 0 0 20-May 0 0 20-Jun 2 135 1 12 5 10 17 20-Jul 0 0 20-Aug 0 1 3 2 20-Sep 5 84 2 17 20-Oct 5 315 2 2 47 20-Nov 3 313 7 1 1 2 38 20-Dec 22 645 9 123 11 11 37 113 21-Jan 3 720 3 176 8 3 38 120 21-Feb 9 1231 2 205 7 90 313 21-Mar 2193 14 198 1 2 30 15 241 21-Apr 3 3818 12 1306 102 127 497 21-May 113 2180 5 1514 44 118 488 21-Jun 205 6527 9 2770 4 44 131 577 21-Jul 248 15488 19 2354 8 34 210 452 21-Aug 568 21285 22 2857 8 1 128 463 21-Sep 437 22473 48 1566 31 3 40 102 805 21-Oct 339 20626 88 3018 29 11 65 325 1403 21-Nov 352 3595 65 1639 18 22 158 222 1691 21-Dec 542 936 100 997 55 39 71 151 1303 22-Jan 1421 807 100 367 48 32 67 1 70 1789 22-Feb 1573 627 156 334 72 39 74 3 81 1303 22-Mar 1704 658 121 361 59 56 88 40 201 1539 22-Apr 2694 785 181 634 72 59 172 31 126 1380 22-May 9844 997 527 567 248 67 179 67 254 1144 22-Jun 11359 1025 555 416 287 66 228 82 210 1405 22-Jul 17066 1245 883 574 407 85 431 162 236 1733 22-Aug 23632 1921 1581 589 569 119 332 128 150 2083 22-Sep 38399 2642 2594 490 1306 136 350 180 189 1918 22-Oct 40593 4525 8487 663 1600 274 604 551 143 2333 22-Nov 668 5520 6350 535 208 377 813 379 176 1606 22-Dec 1374 6535 7821 431 188 695 756 596 48 1853 23-Jan 2337 12063 6352 142 333 913 562 291 127 1514 23-Feb 7097 7813 5203 36 637 1285 872 276 132 1306 23-Mar 20816 8335 2772 35 1260 1657 1109 359 87 1669 23-Apr 25395 5832 2683 59 1634 1683 446 386 77 2102 23-May 26409 3633 3059 59 1645 1497 161 192 148 2159 23-Jun 18501 1743 5052 74 894 1722 65 217 185 1269 23-Jul 38033 1548 9773 123 1884 1789 96 321 243 1577 23-Aug 62700 1992 8642 172 2989 2433 27 467 159 2365 23-Sep 58716 3176 4744 166 2570 2588 43 609 260 2396 23-Oct 34594 3958 2849 97 2051 2934 36 400 200 2137

Data table

2023 is still—by far—a record-breaking year for Darién Gap migration, though. 458,228 people migrated through the region during the first 10 months of the year, making it certain that the year-end total will surpass 500,000. 294,598 of this year’s migrants (64 percent, blue in the chart) have been Venezuelan.

Annual Migration Through Panama’s Darién Gap 2023: Venezuela 64%, Ecuador 11.2%, Haiti (plus Brazil and Chile) 10.9%, China 4%, Colombia 3%, All Others <1% Since 2010: Venezuela 47%, Haiti (plus Brazil and Chile) 22%, Ecuador 8%, Cuba 7%, Colombia 2.24%, China 2.18%, All Others <2% Venezuela Haiti (plus Brazil and Chile) Ecuador Cuba Colombia China India Nepal Bangladesh Other Countries 2010 0 79 268 12 29 53 118 2011 1 15 18 65 9 11 9 45 110 2012 0 18 1154 24 11 48 213 89 220 2013 2 4 2010 26 1 297 398 313 2014 2 1 5026 9 1 468 377 291 2015 2 8 14 24623 32 1 1 2426 559 1623 2016 6 16742 93 7383 16 20 1619 580 3601 2017 18 40 50 736 36 6 1127 2138 506 2119 2018 65 420 51 329 13 2962 868 1525 2988 2019 78 10490 31 2691 23 1920 254 911 5704 2020 69 5331 40 245 21 3 39 56 123 538 2021 2819 101072 387 18600 169 77 592 523 1657 7830 2022 150327 27287 29356 5961 5064 2005 4094 1631 1884 20675 2023 (Oct) 294598 50093 51129 963 15897 18501 3417 2035 1618 19977

Data table

Data from the United States and Honduras also show sharp drops in migration from Venezuela. The cause appears to be U.S. and Venezuelan governments’ October 5 announcement that they would be renewing deportation flights to Caracas. Though these flights are proving to be relatively infrequent so far, the mere possibility of being sent all the way back to Venezuela seems to have led many Venezuelan citizens considering migration to “wait and see” and delay their plans.

Honduras is the country that reports in-transit migration in the most current manner. Looking at weekly migration through Honduras shows a possible recovery in Venezuelan migration (blue) during the first full week of November. However, a single week’s data don’t necessarily point to a trend. Here is migration of citizens of Venezuela during each week between September 1 and November 9.

“Irregular” Migrants from Venezuela and Haiti Registered in Honduras by Week, September-Early November 2023 Venezuela Haiti Week of 9/1-9/7 10101 2475 Week of 9/8-9/14 8685 3120 Week of 9/15-9/21 11012 5138 Week of 9/22-9/28 9852 4302 Week of 9/29-10/5 10384 5632 Week of 10/6-10/12 8430 6936 Week of 10/13-10/19 8514 8199 Week of 10/20-10/26 7154 11356 Week of 10/27-11/2 4866 5141 Week of 11/3-11/9 8199 1242

The chart also shows citizens of Haiti (green), whose numbers rose then fell during the same period. The recent drop owes to the Haitian government, at strong U.S. suggestion, banning charter flights to Nicaragua at the end of October.

See also:

November 11, 2023 — 0

Haiti Led Nationalities of In-Transit Migration Through Honduras in October

Honduras’s “Irregular” Migrant Encounters (Since August 2022) October 2023: Haiti 35%, Venezuela 34%, Cuba 17%, Ecuador 4%, Guinea 2.3%, Colombia 2.0%, All Others <2% Since August 2022: Venezuela 41%, Cuba 17%, Haiti 15%, Ecuador 11%, Colombia 2.1%, All Others <2% Venezuela Cuba Haiti Ecuador Colombia China Senegal Guinea Mauritania Other Countries 22-Aug 10769 6899 836 1583 314 42 118 19 18 2278 22-Sep 11325 5144 863 1685 379 45 135 23 14 2220 22-Oct 14027 5290 1856 5793 723 99 185 30 18 3037 22-Nov 3756 9219 2858 5130 400 186 158 34 38 3857 22-Dec 1923 7225 2518 6557 231 405 87 22 63 4034 23-Jan 1866 2079 5365 4562 296 415 202 72 31 4054 23-Feb 4462 629 4092 5010 449 688 159 97 71 4449 23-Mar 9112 776 2991 2493 624 719 191 90 88 4576 23-Apr 10883 1301 2392 1692 682 985 472 87 87 4350 23-May 11809 2397 1629 2147 654 801 831 277 427 4398 23-Jun 12698 3254 1305 2817 488 1045 390 118 1801 2870 23-Jul 25050 6721 1558 6116 954 980 1398 389 2036 3769 23-Aug 35669 11343 4051 5789 1330 654 1629 1005 1036 3020 23-Sep 42550 19288 14898 4830 2174 570 1066 1762 48 3453 23-Oct 34547 17513 35529 3581 2021 1006 1235 2304 75 4198

Data table

We’ve grown accustomed to Venezuela (blue in this chart) being the number-one nationality of migrants transiting Central America and Mexico to come to the United States. Venezuela has been the number-one country of citizenship of people transiting Honduras during every month since March, and U.S. authorities encountered more migrants from Venezuela than from any other country—including Mexico—at the U.S.-Mexico border in September.

Data from Honduras in October, however, show at least a temporary pause in that trend. Last month, Honduras registered more migrants from Haiti transiting its territory (brown in this chart) than from Venezuela. (A new “Mixed Movements Protection Monitoring” report from UNCHR also notes this trend.)

It was a record month for Honduras’s registries of in-transit migrants from around the world: 102,009 people with “irregular” migratory status registered with the government, a necessary step for a short-term legal status making it possible to board buses to get across the country. Of that number, 35,529 were Haitian and 34,547 were Venezuelan. (271 were recorded as Brazilian and 489 as Chilean; many—probably most—of them were children born to Haitian citizen parents who had been living in those countries.)

Transit of Venezuelan migrants through Honduras fell 19 percent from September to October, from 42,550 to 34,547 people.

A possible reason could be a reaction to the Biden administration’s early October agreement with Venezuela to resume deportation flights to Caracas, news of which may have led some would-be migrants to pause their plans. Aerial deportations are expensive, however, and a charter flight to Venezuela only holds about 100-150 people. It is reasonable to expect Venezuelan migration to recover, as conditions in the country remain dire and as Venezuelans considering migration realize that the probability of aerial deportation is slim.

The sharp increase in Haitian migration appears to owe to a new air route from Haiti to Nicaragua, which does not require that visiting citizens of Haiti obtain a visa in advance (though it charges them a steep fee upon arrival). For more on that, see this good November 6 analysis from the Honduras-based journalism website ContraCorriente.

See also:

September 30, 2023 — 0

Humanitarian Parole Recipients By Nationality

Data table

While not 100 percent exact—the Department of Homeland Security isn’t sharing exact numbers—this chart gives a pretty accurate sense of which nationalities’ citizens have benefited from the two-year Humanitarian Parole program that the Biden administration has set up for citizens of Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela. To qualify for the paroled status in the United States, citizens of those countries must apply online from outside U.S. territory, have a passport, have a U.S.-based sponsor, and undergo a background check.

Haitians have taken fullest advantage of the program since the Biden administration created it for Venezuelan citizens in October 2022, and expanded it to the other three countries in January 2023. U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) reported on September 22:

Through the end of August 2023, over 211,000 Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, and Venezuelans had arrived lawfully under the parole processes. This number includes more than 45,000 Cubans, more than 71,000 Haitians, more than 32,000 Nicaraguans, and more than 61,000 Venezuelans who have arrived in the U.S. More than 47,000 Cubans, more than 84,000 Haitians, more than 39,000 Nicaraguans, and more than 68,000 Venezuelans have been vetted and authorized for travel.

May 3, 2023 — 1

Less migration? Or stranded migrants?

This talking point about a “95% drop in border migrant encounters from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela” is problematic.

Screenshot of linked US-Mexico joint statement (English): "Fourth, Mexico and the United States commit to continue the successful joint initiative that President López Obrador and President Biden announced in January 2023 beyond May 11, 2023. This initiative – which combines expanded legal pathways with consequences for irregular migration – achieved a 95 percent drop in border encounters at our shared border. Today, the United States committed to continue to welcome individuals from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela under our parole process. For its part, Mexico will continue to accept back migrants on humanitarian grounds."
Screenshot of linked US-Mexico joint statement (Spanish): "Cuarto. México y Estados Unidos se comprometieron a continuar la exitosa iniciativa conjunta que el presidente López Obrador y el presidente Biden anunciaron en enero de 2023 más allá del 11 de mayo de 2023. Esta iniciativa –que combina una expansión de vías legales con consecuencias para la migración irregular– logró la reducción de 95 por ciento en las llegadas de personas indocumentadas –de las nacionalidades incluidas en el programa– en nuestra frontera compartida. Hoy, Estados Unidos se comprometió a continuar aceptando personas de Cuba, Haití, Nicaragua y Venezuela bajo el programa humanitario. Por su parte, México continuará aceptando de regreso a migrantes bajo motivos humanitarios."

Why? Let’s examine encounters along the migration route, from north to south.

Here’s where the 95% comes from.

Chart: Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela Migrants Encountered Between U.S. Ports of Entry Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Between Ports of Entry (Border Patrol) 47270 34596 54042 55910 57280 40470 50069 56209 78256 71656 75658 84192 11909 2052 3811

US Border Patrol’s apprehensions of these 4 countries’ migrants really did drop steeply from December—after Mexico agreed to accept Title 42 expulsions of these nationalities, and once a “humanitarian parole” option opened up for some of them.

But there’s no 95% drop anywhere else along the migration route, where people fleeing those countries have become stranded.

Since December, Mexico’s encounters with these 4 countries’ migrants are only down 42%.

Chart: Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela Migrants Encountered in Mexico Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Total 7549 6601 10448 11221 8551 8071 11308 21545 22910 31047 23450 21124 12480 9859 12327

Since December, Honduras’s encounters with Cuban, Haitian, and Venezuelan migrants are up 10%.

(Nicaraguan citizens don’t need passports to be in Honduras, and thus don’t end up in Honduras’s count of “irregular” or “undocumented” migrants.)

Chart: Cuba, Haiti, and Venezuela Migrants Encountered in Honduras Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Total 1589 2253 7571 10703 10757 12726 10297 18504 17332 21173 15833 11666 9310 9183 12879

Since December, in Panama’s Darién Gap, migration from Cuba, Haiti, and Venezuela is up 250% (though down 57% from a high in October, before Mexico started accepting expulsions of Venezuelan migrants).

Chart: Cuba, Haiti, and Venezuela Migrants Encountered in Panama’s Darién Gap Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Total 2595 2534 2723 4113 11408 12800 18885 26142 41531 45781 6723 8340 14542 14946 29186

The upshot: migration from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, Venezuela may be down sharply at the US-Mexico border, due to aggressive Title 42 expulsions.

But the expulsions have absolutely not deterred these nations’ citizens from migrating. They’re still fleeing—but they’re stranded.

February 28, 2023 — 0

Dominican Republic deportations of Haiti citizens

Dominican Republic deportations of Haiti citizens:

  • 2019: 67,400
  • 2020 (pandemic): 23,600
  • 2021: 85,000
  • 2022: 171,000

That’s 238 per day.

Source is Dominican President’s state of the union address, which lauds plans to build 54km of fence along the Haitian border.

UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said in February:

In my visit to the Ouanaminthe in the northeast of the country [Haiti], I heard terrible stories of the humiliating treatment to which many migrants are subjected to, including pregnant women and unaccompanied or separated children.

January 30, 2023 — 0

Meant to bring order to asylum-seeking, an app threatens chaos for Haitian migrants

Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has spent the month rolling out an app to allow asylum-seekers in Mexico apply for appointments at official border crossings: a limited number of “Title 42 exemptions” available each day.

The “CBPOne” app has problems, the Associated Press is reporting. This may be the most serious:

Some migrants, particularly with darker skin, say the app is rejecting required photos, blocking or delaying applications. CBP says it is aware of some technical issues, especially when new appointments are made available, but that users’ phones may also contribute. It says a live photo is required for each login as a security measure.

The issue has hit Haitians hardest, said Felicia Rangel-Samponaro, director of The Sidewalk School, which assists migrants in Reynosa and Matamoros, across from Texas’ Rio Grande Valley. Previously, about 80% of migrants admitted to seek asylum in the area were Haitian, Rangel-Samponaro said. On Friday, she counted 10 Black people among 270 admitted in Matamoros.

This adds to existing concerns about racial bias in facial recognition, artificial intelligence, and other technologies that national security agencies are rapidly adopting.

It also could reverse a program that was making progress: Haitian asylum seekers’ access to exemptions, for migrants deemed “most vulnerable,” to the Title 42 pandemic expulsions policy.

You may recall the chaotic, abusive scene in Del Rio. Texas in September 2021, when thousands of Haitians crossed the Rio Grande all at once, hoping to turn themselves in to Border Patrol agents and ask for asylum.

That is not the current reality for Haitian migrants. Right now, Haitians hardly ever cross the border in an unauthorized way to seek asylum. They’ve taken full advantage of a Title 42 exemptions process that gradually began expanding during the second half of 2022. They show up, by appointment, at ports of entry (official border crossings).

Since June, 37,408 Haitian migrants have been processed at ports of entry. And the number of Haitians whom Border Patrol has encountered between the ports of entry plummeted 99.6 percent from May (7,762) to December (31).

The cruel airlift of Haitians being expelled back to the Port-au-Prince airport has sharply receded: one plane during the last three months of 2022, compared to 36 in May.

That progress is in jeopardy now, though, as the CBPOne app appears to be making it much harder for Haitian asylum seekers to access the exemptions.

If this continues, Haitians will not stop coming to seek protection in the United States. In fact, Panamanian authorities report that Haitians are the number-one nationality arriving through the treacherous Darién Gap jungles right now.

Unless the CBPOne app improves its facial recognition and other performance quickly, this new technology’s introduction could undo a lot of hard-won progress for Haitian migrants, and worsen order at the border.

November 23, 2022 — 0

At least 0.6% of Haiti’s current population was deported there this year

An Associated Press story reports that the Dominican Republic has deported 43,900 Haitian migrants back across the two countries’ land border between July and October. Another 6,492 of them were deported just last week, according to local media. Things are so extreme in the DR right now that the U.S. embassy issued a travel warning cautioning darker-skinned Americans from visiting, due to the risk of being caught up in a sweep.

In September, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) reported that the United States, Cuba, the Bahamas, Turks and Caicos, and other countries had deported 21,215 Haitian migrants back to Haiti since January. (That’s on top of 19,629 returns from those countries in 2021.)

Putting those numbers together—an incomplete picture—documents that at least 71,607 people have been returned—in nearly all cases, against their will—to Haiti, a nation currently on the verge of anarchy and collapse amid gang violence, hunger, and a menacing spike in cholera cases.

Haiti has perhaps 11.4 million people. So at least 1 in every 159 people in Haiti right now—0.6 percent of the population—has been forcibly returned there since 2022 began. Despite the miserable and dangerous conditions that Haitians are facing in their country.

May 1, 2020 — 0

WOLA Podcast: COVID-19, Anti-Democratic Trends, and Human Rights Concerns

Podcasts are coming back after a two-week break. There’ll be a few over the coming week.

For this one, I wrangled together four of my WOLA colleagues to take the temperature of politics and human rights in the region a month and a half into the COVID-19 lockdown. It’s really grim, and challenging to end on an optimistic note. But listen to it and you will learn a lot. Here’s the description from WOLA’s website:

COVID-19 threatens to take many lives in Latin America. It also threatens to leave behind a less democratic, less rights-respecting, more unequal, and more violent region.

An April 13 WOLA commentary laid out many of these concerns. If anything, they’ve grown more urgent since then. Here, five WOLA program directors gather for a discussion of where things stand in several countries in the region.

  • Director for Defense Oversight Adam Isacson talks about El Salvador.
  • Director for the Andes Gimena Sánchez-Garzoli discusses Colombia, Brazil, and Haiti.
  • Director for Venezuela Geoff Ramsey covers Venezuela.
  • Director for Mexico and Migrant Rights Maureen Meyer provides an update about Mexico and the border.
  • Director for Drug Policy and the Andes John Walsh explains drug trafficking trends and the situation in Bolivia.

Listen above, or download the .mp3 file.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.