It’s so perplexing that people are convinced that Title 42 slowed migration, and that its lifting will be a major change.
Here’s what happened to single-adult migrant encounters at the US-Mexico border after Title 42 went into effect. Not a deterrent, to say the least.
Title 42 did not similarly increase child and family migration over what came before. But it didn’t reduce it, either.
The 4 countries whose citizens could be expelled across the land border into Mexico? Title 42 slowed growth in their migration, though it remained high. But citizens of all other countries surpassed them since last summer.
Title 42 did NOT reduce US-bound migration of non-Mexicans through Mexico, which has hit all-time record levels.
Northbound migration through Panama’s treacherous Darién Gap was rare before Title 42, which did nothing to deter it.
By increasing incentives not to turn themselves in to US authorities, Title 42 probably contributed to today’s horrific amount of migrant deaths on US soil along the border.
Title 42 had no impact on drugs crossing the border. Fentanyl, for instance, is almost entirely seized at ports of entry (blue) and checkpoints (brown), it appears in most cases by US citizens.
If Title 42 ends, a short-term increase is likely. Asylum seekers from 5 countries subject to land-border expulsions into Mexico will finally have a chance to seek protection, after being bottled up for 33 months.
But don’t believe for a moment that Title 42 ever reduced migration.
(P.S.: These and other charts are at WOLA’s Border Oversight page.)