WOLA just posted a new commentary that I drafted, which seeks to put into context the shocking recent U.S.-Mexico border migration statistics.

February and March saw the fewest migrants apprehended at the U.S.-Mexico border since available records began in 1999. The arrival of Donald Trump and his anti-immigrant rhetoric clearly has something to do with that.

But Trump’s rhetoric also probably explains why there was a big surge of migrants, especially Central American families and children, in the months between the election and the inauguration. In this article, I predict that migration levels are likely to increase again, to some level that is higher than the current low, but lower than the late-2016 high. To see the reasons why, read the article.