Adam Isacson

Defense, security, borders, migration, and human rights in Latin America and the United States. May not reflect my employer’s consensus view.

November 14, 2023 — 0

At WOLA: U.S. Congress Must Not Gut the Right to Asylum at a Time of Historic Need

Republican legislators have dug in and have given the Biden administration a list of demands. Aid for Ukraine and other items in the White House’s supplemental budget request will not get their approval, they say, unless the law is changed in ways that all but eliminate the right to seek asylum at the U.S.-Mexico border.

Here, at WOLA’s site, is an analysis of this proposal and the unspeakable harm that it would do. We urge the administration and congressional Democrats to stand strong and reject it.

From the conclusion:

If the Senate Republicans’ November 6 proposal were to become law, it would deny asylum to almost all protection-seeking migrants, unless:

  • That migrant sought asylum and received rejections in every country through which they passed en route to the United States.
  • That migrant presented at a land-border port of entry (official border crossing), even though CBP strictly limits asylum seekers’ access to these facilities.
  • The U.S. government could not send that migrant to a third country to seek asylum there.
  • In an initial “credible fear” interview within days of apprehension, that migrant met a higher screening standard.

If an asylum seeker clears those hurdles, the Republican proposal would require them to await their court hearings in ICE detention—even if they are a parent with children—or while “remaining in Mexico.”

This proposal is extraordinarily radical. Congressional Republicans’ demands to attach it to 2024 spending put the Biden administration in a tough position. It is a terrible choice to have to secure funding for Ukraine and other priorities by ending the United States’ historic role as a country of refuge, breaking international commitments dating back to the years after World War II.

Read the whole thing here.

See also:

November 14, 2023 — 0

Migration at the U.S.-Mexico Border Dropped 11 Percent from September to October

All CBP (Border Patrol Plus Port of Entry) Migrant Encounters by Country at the U.S.-Mexico Border October 2023: Mexico 26%, Venezuela 17%, Guatemala 10%, Honduras 9%, Colombia 6%, Cuba 5.2%, Ecuador 5.0%, El Salvador 3%, All Others <2% Since October 2020: Mexico 33%, Honduras 11.2%, Guatemala 11.1%, Venezuela 8%, Cuba 6%, Nicaragua 5%, Colombia 4.5%, All Others <4% Mexico Honduras Guatemala Venezuela Cuba Nicaragua Colombia El Salvador Ecuador Other Countries 20-Oct 46786 7370 9292 143 1679 256 26 3014 2220 1143 20-Nov 44164 8199 10323 184 1590 387 69 3650 2765 782 20-Dec 39370 10358 12454 206 2067 640 73 3921 3676 1229 21-Jan 40793 11232 13137 295 1899 534 69 3580 3598 3277 21-Feb 44257 20180 19154 913 3848 706 76 5599 3440 2926 21-Mar 62504 42116 34060 2566 5700 1930 179 9475 5579 9168 21-Apr 65597 38205 30053 6048 3288 3074 260 11043 8079 13148 21-May 70874 32131 26452 7499 2664 4414 408 10462 11691 14002 21-Jun 64908 35033 30246 7583 3072 7435 481 11582 12803 15891 21-Jul 59959 45297 36468 6126 3559 13456 751 12719 17335 17923 21-Aug 56397 42125 37108 6301 4496 9979 1562 12692 17611 21569 21-Sep 59985 27078 24288 10814 4812 7298 2248 10953 7353 37172 21-Oct 66049 21861 19374 13416 5896 9255 3015 9801 748 15422 21-Nov 63846 20105 20469 20388 6605 13627 3368 9664 556 16217 21-Dec 51475 18141 21009 24801 7986 15297 4094 8874 673 26903 22-Jan 60341 12011 13856 22779 9721 11564 3911 5810 602 14279 22-Feb 71850 14075 18215 3073 16557 13296 9608 7146 683 11507 22-Mar 88132 16213 21392 4053 32153 16017 15373 8403 877 19961 22-Apr 82568 15734 19910 4107 34839 12565 13128 8355 1636 42943 22-May 77453 19730 21468 5088 25643 19034 19320 8980 3046 41374 22-Jun 66730 24177 24648 13199 16172 11200 12597 9123 3231 26757 22-Jul 55692 20340 20212 17647 20098 12073 13454 7952 2948 29746 22-Aug 60772 16219 15681 25361 19060 11749 13497 6675 3681 31392 22-Sep 63431 14417 15331 33804 26178 18199 13807 6247 5379 30754 22-Oct 66277 14100 14843 22060 28851 20923 17362 6069 7030 34014 22-Nov 59348 13143 14510 8013 34710 34249 15846 5532 11999 37823 22-Dec 48390 13276 14885 8187 42654 35381 17731 4860 16206 50745 23-Jan 62265 11030 11970 9102 6462 3382 9471 3779 9416 30481 23-Feb 65271 10935 14220 5565 753 636 12851 4719 7372 34308 23-Mar 81307 13355 15293 8320 1316 482 17055 5765 7143 43213 23-Apr 67091 13218 14584 34633 1608 506 17843 4677 6396 51436 23-May 55405 21035 14817 32733 2804 718 18130 5349 6474 49225 23-Jun 49262 15093 10362 20453 2681 417 4705 3182 5105 33296 23-Jul 53928 26023 22127 18958 3668 445 5951 3953 9912 38514 23-Aug 55493 35168 37937 31463 6179 736 8948 6080 13631 37328 23-Sep 53296 27310 34537 66584 10666 1621 13643 7550 15545 38983 23-Oct 63003 21819 23845 40863 12495 3306 13773 7250 12154 42480

Data table

New CBP data for the U.S.-Mexico border is out through October. Combining migrants who came to ports of entry with migrants whom Border Patrol apprehended between the ports of entry, migration fell from 269,735 people in September to 240,988 in October (-11 percent).

Nearly all of the net reduction is citizens of Venezuela, whose numbers fell -39 percent (66,584 in September to 40,863 in October). The Biden administration’s October 5 announcement of resumed deportation flights to Venezuela probably explains the reduction. News of the resumption may have led some would-be migrants to pause their plans.

This drop will probably be short-lived, unless the Biden administration pursues a massive, costly, cruel, and politically absurd blitz of frequent aerial deportation flights to Caracas. (We see no signs of that happening yet.) As I wrote a couple of days ago, it is reasonable to expect Venezuelan migration to recover, as conditions in the country remain dire and as Venezuelans considering migration realize that the probability of aerial deportation is slim.

See also:

November 13, 2023 — 0

E-mail Update Is Out

Here’s a new “weekly” e-mail about stuff I’ve been working on, for those who’ve signed up to receive them.

This one is full of stuff. A link to the Border Update, and to a photo collection. Updates about what’s happening in Congress. Some new infographics about migration. An event video. Links to recommended reading and to upcoming events.

If you visit this site a lot, you probably don’t need an e-mail, too. But if you’d like to get more-or-less regular e-mail updates, scroll to the bottom of this page or click here.

November 13, 2023 — 0

Video: “Migrant Justice in Times of Militarized Borders”

This was a great panel on November 7, with speakers in four countries (the United States, Mexico, Guatemala, and Colombia). We talked about challenges for dignified migration at a time of hardening borders and more military and police involvement in migration control throughout the region.

Many thanks to Hispanics in Philanthropy and Open Society Foundations for organizing it and inviting me to participate.

November 12, 2023 — 0

Latin America-Related Events in Washington and Online This Week

(Events that I know of, anyway. All times are U.S. Eastern.)

Monday, November 13

  • 10:00-11:30 at the Wilson Center and online: US–EU Cooperation: Strengthening Democracy in Latin America (RSVP required).

Tuesday, November 14

Wednesday, November 15

  • 8:00-10:00 at atlanticcouncil.org: The Caribbean gender empowerment forum (RSVP required).
  • 9:00-12:00 at homeland.house.gov: Hearing of the House Homeland Security Committee on Worldwide Threats to the Homeland.
  • 11:00-12:30 at Georgetown University: CLAS Ambassador Series: A Conversation with H.E. Catalina Crespo Sancho of Costa Rica (RSVP required).
  • 2:00-3:00 at wilsoncenter.org: Examining the Impact of Elections in Argentina with Former President Macri (RSVP required).
  • 6:00-8:00 at WOLA and at wola.org: Racism in the Americas: A Path Forward (RSVP required).
November 12, 2023 — 0

Annual Border Patrol Migrant Encounters by Country at the U.S.-Mexico Border

I made this chart, and underlying data table, by combining CBP’s migrant encounter data from 2020-2023 with data scraped from this big ugly CBP PDF covering 2007-2020.

Annual Border Patrol Migrant Encounters by Country at the U.S.-Mexico Border 2023: Mexico 31%, Guatemala 11.2%, Venezuela 10.6%, Mexico 20%, Honduras 10%, Colombia 8%, Cuba 6.1%, Ecuador 6.0%, All Others <6% Since 2007: Mexico 51%, Guatemala 13%, Honduras 11%, El Salvador 6%, Venezuela 4%, Cuba 3.2%, All Others <3% Mexico Guatemala Honduras El Salvador Venezuela Cuba Nicaragua Colombia Ecuador Other Countries 2007 800634 16307 21703 13602 60 131 1484 302 769 3647 2008 653035 15143 18110 12133 48 132 1327 215 1384 3478 2009 495582 14125 13344 11181 32 105 841 233 1169 4253 2010 396819 16831 12231 13123 35 84 760 307 1571 5970 2011 280580 17582 11270 10368 28 66 520 217 1064 5882 2012 262341 34453 30349 21903 28 40 876 185 2226 4472 2013 265409 54143 46448 36957 34 73 1389 365 3958 5621 2014 226771 80473 90968 66419 15 98 1809 233 4748 7837 2015 186017 56691 33445 43392 23 106 1015 282 2556 7806 2016 190760 74601 52952 71848 40 78 1298 302 2713 14278 2017 127938 65871 47260 49760 73 147 1057 196 1429 10185 2018 152257 115722 76513 31369 62 74 3282 192 1495 15613 2019 166458 264168 253795 89811 2202 11645 13309 401 13131 36588 2020 253118 47243 40091 16484 1227 9822 2123 295 11861 18387 2021 608037 279033 308931 95930 47752 38139 49841 5838 95692 114247 2022 738780 228220 199186 93196 187286 220321 163552 124540 23944 177672 2023 579146 213266 180659 53348 200668 116498 97757 154077 113813 188135

Data table

Looking at this, three things jump out at you:

  1. Until about 10 years ago, the migrant population at the U.S.-Mexico border was almost completely Mexican citizens (blue). More than 90 percent Mexican until 2009. More than 80 percent Mexican until 2012. Just 31 percent Mexican in 2023.
  2. Until the pandemic hit, the migrant population was almost completely Mexican, Salvadoran, Guatemalan, or Honduran (blue, darker green, brown, yellow). More than 90 percent came from those four countries until 2019; their share dropped to 89 percent in 2020. But just 54 percent came from those four countries in 2023.
  3. Since the pandemic, the diversity of nationalities apprehended at the U.S.-Mexico border has multiplied. The arrival of more migrants from Cuba, Haiti, and South America reflects increasing insecurity and economic desperation, but also the emergence of new routes further south, like the “opening” of the Darién Gap and aerial arrivals in Nicaragua.

See also:

November 11, 2023 — 0

Haiti Led Nationalities of In-Transit Migration Through Honduras in October

Honduras’s “Irregular” Migrant Encounters (Since August 2022) October 2023: Haiti 35%, Venezuela 34%, Cuba 17%, Ecuador 4%, Guinea 2.3%, Colombia 2.0%, All Others <2% Since August 2022: Venezuela 41%, Cuba 17%, Haiti 15%, Ecuador 11%, Colombia 2.1%, All Others <2% Venezuela Cuba Haiti Ecuador Colombia China Senegal Guinea Mauritania Other Countries 22-Aug 10769 6899 836 1583 314 42 118 19 18 2278 22-Sep 11325 5144 863 1685 379 45 135 23 14 2220 22-Oct 14027 5290 1856 5793 723 99 185 30 18 3037 22-Nov 3756 9219 2858 5130 400 186 158 34 38 3857 22-Dec 1923 7225 2518 6557 231 405 87 22 63 4034 23-Jan 1866 2079 5365 4562 296 415 202 72 31 4054 23-Feb 4462 629 4092 5010 449 688 159 97 71 4449 23-Mar 9112 776 2991 2493 624 719 191 90 88 4576 23-Apr 10883 1301 2392 1692 682 985 472 87 87 4350 23-May 11809 2397 1629 2147 654 801 831 277 427 4398 23-Jun 12698 3254 1305 2817 488 1045 390 118 1801 2870 23-Jul 25050 6721 1558 6116 954 980 1398 389 2036 3769 23-Aug 35669 11343 4051 5789 1330 654 1629 1005 1036 3020 23-Sep 42550 19288 14898 4830 2174 570 1066 1762 48 3453 23-Oct 34547 17513 35529 3581 2021 1006 1235 2304 75 4198

Data table

We’ve grown accustomed to Venezuela (blue in this chart) being the number-one nationality of migrants transiting Central America and Mexico to come to the United States. Venezuela has been the number-one country of citizenship of people transiting Honduras during every month since March, and U.S. authorities encountered more migrants from Venezuela than from any other country—including Mexico—at the U.S.-Mexico border in September.

Data from Honduras in October, however, show at least a temporary pause in that trend. Last month, Honduras registered more migrants from Haiti transiting its territory (brown in this chart) than from Venezuela. (A new “Mixed Movements Protection Monitoring” report from UNCHR also notes this trend.)

It was a record month for Honduras’s registries of in-transit migrants from around the world: 102,009 people with “irregular” migratory status registered with the government, a necessary step for a short-term legal status making it possible to board buses to get across the country. Of that number, 35,529 were Haitian and 34,547 were Venezuelan. (271 were recorded as Brazilian and 489 as Chilean; many—probably most—of them were children born to Haitian citizen parents who had been living in those countries.)

Transit of Venezuelan migrants through Honduras fell 19 percent from September to October, from 42,550 to 34,547 people.

A possible reason could be a reaction to the Biden administration’s early October agreement with Venezuela to resume deportation flights to Caracas, news of which may have led some would-be migrants to pause their plans. Aerial deportations are expensive, however, and a charter flight to Venezuela only holds about 100-150 people. It is reasonable to expect Venezuelan migration to recover, as conditions in the country remain dire and as Venezuelans considering migration realize that the probability of aerial deportation is slim.

The sharp increase in Haitian migration appears to owe to a new air route from Haiti to Nicaragua, which does not require that visiting citizens of Haiti obtain a visa in advance (though it charges them a steep fee upon arrival). For more on that, see this good November 6 analysis from the Honduras-based journalism website ContraCorriente.

See also:

November 10, 2023 — 0

Weekly U.S.-Mexico Border Update: November 10, 2023

With this series of weekly updates, WOLA seeks to cover the most important developments at the U.S.-Mexico border. See past weekly updates here.

THIS WEEK IN BRIEF:

The U.S. Congress is considering the 2024 federal budget and a supplemental budget request for Ukraine, Israel, Gaza, and the U.S.-Mexico border. In exchange for approval—especially for the supplemental request—Republican legislators are demanding changes to border and migration policy, including a series of measures that would severely curtail the right to seek asylum in the United States. Democrats are opposed, but signal that they are willing to discuss some concessions on asylum, possibly including a higher standard that asylum seekers must meet in initial “credible fear” interviews.

The International Crisis Group and Human Rights Watch issued in-depth research reports about migration in the treacherous Darién Gap jungle region straddling Colombia and Panama, through which about half a million people have migrated so far this year. Both find stark gaps in government presence and a powerful role for organized crime, along with frequent and severe abuses of migrants passing through the zone. Recommendations recognize the complexity of the situation, and focus largely on efforts in source and transit countries to address the causes of migration, improved integration of migrants especially from Venezuela and Haiti, and better cooperation and coordination between states.

Brief updates look at Costa Rica’s and Panama’s policy of busing northbound migrants through their territory; at Nicaragua’s increasing use as an initial arrival point for migrants from Cuba, Haiti, and elsewhere; and at the situation of thousands of migrants stranded in Chiapas and Oaxaca in southern Mexico.

THE FULL UPDATE:

Read More
November 10, 2023 — 0

One Out of Four Is a Lot

This can’t be the point Sen. Graham wanted to make, but:

Immigration judges, after rigorous procedures, are finding that 1 out of 4 people coming to the U.S.-Mexico border would be likely to die or be imprisoned if deported.

That’s a high likelihood of sending people back to severe harm if we deny them due process. It’s a strong argument for giving asylum seekers in the United States a fair hearing and to invest heavily in our asylum system.

Hearing of the Senate Appropriations Committee, November 8, 2023 (https://bit.ly/3FTZvC8) Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-South Carolina): You're the head of DHS and you can't tell me how many asylum claims are approved versus denied. Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas: Generally, generally speaking across the board on a macro basis, it's approximately 75% [denied asylum]. Graham: Okay.

See also:

November 8, 2023 — 0

On the Table Now: a Fatal Blow to the Right to Seek Protection in the United States

A Senate Republican “working group” has outlined a border and migration proposal as a likely condition of keeping the U.S. government open past the next “shutdown” date (November 17).

I’m still struggling to express graphically how severe this proposal’s consequences would be for tens of thousands of people facing real danger. Here is another attempt.

Infographic: Imagine that Senate Republicans' November 2023 border and migration proposal became law. Now imagine that you have fled to the U.S. border to seek asylum. A series of arrows pointing downward, getting ever narrower as they reach the bottom. Did you seek asylum, and get turned down, in every single country you passed through, no matter how impoverished, dangerous, and unable to protect you those countries are? Did CBP officers doing “metering” at the borderline permit you to approach an official land border crossing (port of entry) to ask for asylum? Was DHS somehow unable to ship you off to a (likely impoverished or dangerous) third country to go seek asylum there? In your rapid screening interview, did you meet a new, very high “credible fear” standard? Was DHS somehow unable to make you “Remain in Mexico”while you await your immigration court hearings? Was ICE somehow unable to hold you (and your kids) in detention? Did you make it this far? Almost certainly not. But if you did, then the United States might consider protecting you from likely harm, without jailing you in a detention center. This is a remarkably cruel proposal, undoing generations of basic protections. It must not become law. View the actual proposal at https://bit.ly/2311_senate_gop

See also:

November 7, 2023 — 0

This Border Proposal Could Send Us Back to the 1930s—and Some of it Might Pass

As the U.S. government scrambles to agree on a 2024 budget to avoid another “shutdown” on November 17, Republican leaders of the U.S. Senate have laid down a set of border and migration demands as their top condition for agreeing to any new spending deal. If the Biden administration wants aid to Ukraine, for example, these are the GOP demands. Republicans in the House have similar—or perhaps harsher—demands.

Using the one-pager that Senate Republicans shared yesterday, here’s a graphic that shows how thoroughly their proposal would obliterate threatened people’s right to seek asylum in the United States.

This is a right that most of the world adopted after World War II. The congressional Republican proposal would send us back to the 1930s. And the Biden administration is already indicating to Democratic allies that they might have to adopt some of it.

If this ever became law, someone fleeing likely death or imprisonment would only be able to access the U.S. asylum system if:

  • They tried, and failed, to seek asylum in every country through which they passed on the way—no matter how impoverished, dangerous, or ill-governed the country.
  • They came to a port of entry (official border crossing), even though Customs and Border Protection, through a practice called “metering,” allows only a bare trickle of asylum seekers to access these facilities.
  • They could not be shipped off to a third country to seek asylum there (the Trump administration made agreements with Guatemala and Honduras to be “third countries” for asylum seekers).
  • They were able to meet a higher standard of “credible fear of persecution” in screening interviews performed shortly after arrival at the U.S. border.
  • They awaited their U.S. immigration court hearing dates while “remaining” in northern Mexico, or while sitting in ICE detention centers—even if they are families with children.

See also:

November 6, 2023 — 0

Thursday at 5:00 Eastern: Crowd-Control Weapons in the Americas: Evidence From the Ground and How to Stop Their Harm

A big group of non-governmental human rights organizations, from around Latin America, has a hearing on Thursday at the OAS Inter-American Human Rights Commission to discuss how security forces are misusing supposedly “non-lethal” crowd-control weapons to maim or kill participants in political protests. The United States, through arms sales, is a top source of those weapons.

Join me later on Thursday, at 5:00—at WOLA or online—when I have the honor of moderating a discussion with some of them.

Here’s the explanatory text from WOLA’s website:

The Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA), the Centro de Estudios Legales y Sociales (CELS), the International Network of Civil Liberties Organizations (INCLO) and Physicians for Human Rights (PHR) warmly invite you to the hybrid event “Crowd-control weapons in the Americas: Evidence from the ground and how to stop their harm”. The event will be held in-person and on Zoom on Thursday 9 November from 5:00-6:30 PM EST.

The right to protest in the Americas is regularly undermined when crowd-control weapons (misleadingly called non-lethal or less-lethal) are used and misused in ways that are disproportionate, indiscriminate and illegal. They inflict life-changing injuries, long-term psychological harm and even death. Despite growing recognition of their dangers, the manufacture, marketing, trade and use of law enforcement equipment including less lethal weapons continues to rise.

Join us for a civil society discussion on how to tackle the negative impacts of crowd-control weapons used by law enforcement in protests across the Americas with experts from the US, Argentina, Colombia and Ecuador. 

The discussion will include a presentation of Lethal in Disguise 2: How Crowd-Control Weapons Impact Health and Human Rights, reflections on an IACHR hearing on the subject to be held earlier that day and growing call at the UN for a binding global Torture-Free Trade Treaty.

Speakers:

  • Adam Isaacson, Director for Defense Oversight at WOLA (moderator)
  • Erika Dailey, Director of Advocacy and Policy of PHR
  • Alicia Ruth Tapuy Santi, INREDH / Widow of Byron Guatatuca
  • Camilo Mendoza Zamudio, Researcher for the police violence observatory and platform GRITA of Temblores NGO
  • Juliana Miranda, Researcher for Citizen Security and Police Violence teams of CELS
  • Michael Perloff, staff attorney at ACLU

The event will be in Spanish and English with simultaneous interpretation available virtually. For those joining us in person and need interpretation, we ask that you bring a device and headphones to connect to the virtual meeting and access the simultaneous interpretation. Wifi will be available.

There will be ample time for Q&A, as well as a short reception following the discussion with beverages and snacks.

** Registration is required both for in person and virtual participation. Please RSVP through this link. 

The event will be livestreamed and accessible afterwards on WOLA’s Youtube Channel.

Newer Posts
Older Posts
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.