Adam Isacson

Defense, security, borders, migration, and human rights in Latin America and the United States. May not reflect my employer’s consensus view.

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The Helpers Need Help

If the fascism playbook calls for scapegoating a vulnerable minority, it also means heaping scorn and derision—or worse—on people who serve and defend that vulnerable minority.

I’ve had lots of conversations this week, both one on one and in coalition, with people assisting the migrant population that Donald Trump calls “animals” who are “poisoning the blood of our country.” I’ll have more conversations today.

They’re not doing well, and they’re preparing for retrenchment.

Shelter operators, pro bono attorneys, and rights defenders, at the U.S.-Mexico border and elsewhere, are bracing for the scale of suffering they’re about to see, and desolate about their limited power to do anything about it.

They’re also worried about themselves: Will they be able to operate? Will they be fending off legal challenges? Will their communications and relationships be subject to surveillance? Is their personal safety at stake, threatened by both aggressive security personnel and self-styled vigilantes?

They also feel alone and undefended. And that’s with good reason.

Will anyone in the political establishment defend them? An important sector of the Democratic Party absolutely will defend them, and defend the rights of immigrants in general. But will a majority of the Democratic Party step up? The Party that just spent an election season triangulating itself away from the migrant rights’ defense community and tacking rightward (with absolutely nothing to show for it)?

Will traditional legacy media step up, after hedging their endorsements and issuing incessant “Trump Pursues Ambitious Immigration Agenda” headlines?

It’s really not clear.

Helpers don’t deserve to be made to feel like this. If you know someone who does this work, please send them a message today and let them know you appreciate them and that you’ll stick up for them. They need it now, and they’re really going to need it soon.

Daily Border Links: November 8, 2024

This is the final Daily Border Links post. Thank you for reading and sharing these as our year-long “rapid response” effort shifts down. The archive will remain online.

WOLA will continue to produce Weekly Border Updates, as we have for over four years, and we will continue to send them to the mailing list that you can join here.

For daily updates about migration, see the National Immigration Forum’s Forum Daily newsletter, and Mary Turck’s Immigration News site.

Developments

On November 6, a Donald Trump spokesperson told Fox News that the president-elect has a mandate to fulfill his campaign promises, including “on day one, launching the largest mass deportation operation of illegal immigrants.” The next day, Trump told NBC News, “It’s not a question of a price tag. It’s not–really, we have no choice” but to massively deport people.

A Reuters/Ipsos online poll taken after Trump’s election victory found that during Trump’s first 100 days in office, “25% of respondents said he should prioritize immigration, a much larger share than any other issue.”

Quiet preparations to implement “mass deportation” are now “ramping up” to full-scale planning, CNN reported. Advisers are discussing priority targeting of undocumented migrants with criminal records while they debate the next steps for “dreamers,” undocumented people who were brought to the United States as children. Slate pointed out that the deportation plan may count on the participation of local police departments nationwide.

Private security contractors that run prisons and detention centers are ramping up their own planning, CNN added. The stock prices of private detention companies like CoreCivic and Geo Group soared following Trump’s election. GEO Group’s board chair said his company was “well-positioned” to go from its present allotment of 13,500 Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) detention beds to “over 31,000 beds.” But the incoming administration won’t immediately have the money to pay them unless it resorts to emergency authorities.

Unnamed Border Patrol agents shared their ecstatic response to Trump’s election with the Washington Examiner’s Anna Giaritelli.

A federal district court judge has struck down the Biden administration’s “Keeping Families Together” program, which sought to use humanitarian parole authority to allow hundreds of thousands of undocumented spouses of U.S. citizens to remain in the United States. Judge J. Campbell Barker, a Trump appointee, determined that the presidential parole authority for migrants, which dates back to 1952, does not empower a president to parole people already inside the United States. The administration is unlikely to appeal, since the incoming Trump administration opposes the program and will not defend it.

Analyses and Feature Stories

If Donald Trump acts after taking office to cut off legal migration pathways like asylum and the CBP One appointments program, migrants are certain to turn to smugglers and seek to enter the United States through other, more dangerous, means, experts and advocates told Associated Press reporters in Mexico. Shelter directors in Mexico, meanwhile, say that they have heard of no Mexican government plans to receive a large number of U.S. deportees.

On a visit to the capital of Mexico’s Chiapas state last week, Gretchen Kuhner of the Mexico-based Institute for Women in Migration saw migrants “getting their cellphones charged every day at some makeshift place on the street so they can check their CBP One appointments… while they’re breastfeeding and sleeping in a tent without any water.”

In a Mother Jones listing of likely Trump policies, Isabela Dias warned of “indiscriminate workplace raids, massive detention camps, and around-the-clock deportation flights.”

Dias and NPR’s Sergio Martínez-Beltrán spoke to immigrant rights defenders who plan to use litigation and other tools to seek to block or at least slow Trump’s planned closures of legal immigration pathways.

Gustavo Torres of CASA told NPR that his organization’s corps of activists “are expressing disappointment in the Democratic Party’s strategy and policy on immigration and that the Harris campaign failed to articulate or promote clear immigration or border policies such as pathways to citizenship. When the issue came up during the race, Harris would criticize Trump for scuttling a bipartisan border bill.”

At the Intercept, Aída Chávez pointed out that Vice President Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party have “nothing to show” for their rightward shift on border and immigration policy during the 2024 campaign and the latter part of the Biden presidency.

Several analyses examined the impact that a second Trump administration may have along different parts of the border.

La Verdad de Juárez reported that Mexican border cities like Ciudad Juárez should prepare for a “boom” of migrants trying to reach U.S. soil before Inauguration Day, January 20. That city’s “Somos Uno Por Juarez” shelter network is currently at 45 percent capacity, but that could increase. Analysts foresee more migrants turning to smugglers, taking dangerous routes to avoid detection.

Migrants awaiting CBP One appointments in Ciudad Juárez told Border Report of their fear that the CBP One program will soon disappear, and the odds of winning cases will plummet for those who manage to apply for asylum.

In Mexico’s southern state of Veracruz, through which many migrants pass while traveling between the Mexico-Guatemala border and Mexico City, state officials expect an increase in the number of people passing through between now and Inauguration Day, Milenio reported.

Officials in Baja California, Mexico, told Border Report that they, too, expect an increase in migration ahead of Inauguration Day. Shelters are currently at 60 percent capacity in Tijuana and 70 percent in Mexicali.

In California, the state with the largest undocumented migrant population, Wendy Fry reported at CalMatters, non-profits are bracing for the humanitarian impact of Trump’s policies and preparing to oppose them using tools like litigation.

Searchlight New Mexico voiced concerns that the coming crackdown is likely to increase fear in immigrant communities, deterring crime reporting, healthcare access, and social service use, while raids may increase the separation of children from undocumented parents. The publication foresees a further increase in migrants dying in New Mexico’s deserts as they seek to avoid apprehension. The article further notes notoriously grim conditions at the state’s ICE detention centers, like Otero and Torrance.

In Texas, migrant rights defenders are bracing themselves, the Texas Observer reported. “Texas is definitely going to be on the front lines of a mass deportation operation,” said Daniel Hatoum of the Texas Civil Rights Project.

Donald Trump’s election victory in south Texas’s majority Mexican-American border counties–a solidly Democratic stronghold as recently as 2016–is “the starkest example of what has been a broad national embrace of the Republican candidate among Hispanic and working-class voters,” according to a New York Times analysis. Voters were concerned about inflation and what they perceived as uncontrolled immigration. The Associated Press reported on the same phenomenon from Starr, one of the south Texas counties that ended a long streak of voting for Democratic presidential candidates.

The Economist recalled Trump’s threats to slap tariffs on Mexican goods if, in his view, the Mexican government is not doing enough to block U.S.-bound migration and accept U.S. deportees–including an agreement to be a “safe third country” for other nations’ asylum seekers, a status that Mexico has resisted.

Daily Border Links: November 7, 2024

Daily Border Links posts will end tomorrow, on November 8; we lack resources to maintain this tempo indefinitely. We have been producing these since last November; the archive will remain online.

WOLA will continue to produce Weekly Border Updates, as we have for over four years, and we will continue to send them to the mailing list that you can join here.

For continued daily updates about migration, see the National Immigration Forum’s Forum Daily newsletter, and Mary Turck’s Immigration News site.

Developments

Even as the Republican Party and Donald Trump made sharp Election Day gains in border counties, especially in Texas, incumbents won all races in House of Representatives districts along the border. Among the narrowest victories are those of Reps. Vicente González (D) in Texas’s Rio Grande Valley, Gabe Vásquez (D) in New Mexico, and Juan Ciscomani (R) in southeast Arizona. Ciscomani won by about 1,600 votes over Democratic challenger Kirsten Engel; a Green Party candidate won 6,600.

In Arizona, 63 percent of voters approved a ballot initiative making it a state crime to cross the border without authorization. The measure resembles Texas’s S.B. 4, which passed in late 2023 but faces court challenges, including by the Biden Justice Department. The Arizona Daily Star’s Howard Fischer noted that it passed “without organized campaign support. But the measure, put on the ballot by Republican state lawmakers, could have benefited from years of headlines and videos about people entering the country illegally.”

In Chiapas, Mexico, participants in a migrant “caravan” exiting the city of Tapachula voiced concern to Reuters that Donald Trump’s election ends their hopes of seeking asylum or protection in the United States. A few turned back to Tapachula.

Milenio reported that some migrants may be trying to pick up their pace to reach the U.S. border before Trump takes office.

NBC News reported that the Biden administration’s Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is making contingency plans ahead of a possible increase in migration as people attempt to reach U.S. soil before Inauguration Day. “A common theme emerged among multiple users: The time to come to the U.S. is now,” NBC said of WhatsApp groups used by migrants.

Asylum seekers awaiting CBP One appointments in Tijuana voiced a well-founded fear that this opportunity will disappear on Inauguration Day. Casa del Migrante shelter director Pat Murphy told Milenio that dangerous irregular migration will increase if the CBP One pathway disappears: “People are going to keep trying to cross and there will be more deaths at the border.”

Analyses and Feature Stories

Donald Trump’s election “sets the stage for a sharp turn in immigration and border policy that could upend millions of lives and recast the U.S. economy and labor force,” wrote longtime Washington Post border and immigration reporters Maria Sacchetti and Nick Miroff.

Chad Wolf, who headed the Department of Homeland Security during the last Trump administration, told the Post that U.S. public opinion is more favorable now for Trump’s hardline policies: “You’ll see a different mindset, and over time it’ll be possible to remove large numbers of people.” Lee Gelernt of the ACLU said, “We anticipate it will be much worse this time and are particularly concerned about the use of the military to round up immigrants.”

Melissa López, director of Estrella del Paso (formerly known as Diocesan Migrant and Refugee Services), told Border Report that her organization is urging migrants “to be getting legal advice as soon as possible so they can find out where they stand” before Trump is inaugurated.

Mexico’s government is bracing for threats, including Trump’s campaign promise to impose tariffs, if it fails to meet the president-elect’s demands to block migrants, accept deportees, and curb drug transshipment, the Los Angeles Times reported.

“There’s no reason to be worried,” Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum told a morning press conference yesterday. “There’s going to be dialogue.” Trade between Mexico and the United States exceeded $800 billion in 2023.

“Mexico gave in to the pressures back then [during Trump’s last term], and the question is whether Mexico will give in again,” Tonatiuh Guillén, a migration scholar who headed Mexico’s migration agency at the beginning of Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s term in 2018-19, told the New York Times. “I think the likelihood it will is high.”

The Times analysis noted that massively deporting people back to Mexico would severely damage the country’s economy by increasing the unemployed population and slashing remittances. “We’re going to see deportees who are harder to reintegrate,” said Eunice Rendón of the advocacy coalition Migrant Agenda.

The Associated Press noted that Trump’s plans to massively deport as many as 11 million undocumented immigrants lack any detail. However, Trump and advisors have referred to using the National Guard or the military and invoking the 1798 Alien Enemies Act. “We all have to have our eyes wide open to the fact that this isn’t 2016,” Heidi Altman of the National Immigration Law Center’s Immigrant Justice Fund told the AP. “Trump and Stephen Miller learned a lot from their first administration. The courts look very different than they did four years ago.”

The Dallas Morning News recalled that Trump advisor Stephen Miller said last year that mass deportation could involve detention camps built “on open land in Texas near the border.”

Officials from the last Trump administration singled out the State Department as a potential obstacle to the president-elect’s proposed mass deportation program. “Nobody” in the diplomatic corps “really thought that was their problem,” Reuters reported that Trump’s ambassador to Mexico, Christopher Landau, said in an October panel discussion.

“The president has a lot of discretion when it comes to the refugee program,” said Mark Hetfield, the CEO of HIAS, one of several advocates and service providers interviewed by Voice of America. “And for asylum, [he’s] going to make it impossible to apply at the border as he did with Title 42 and his Remain in Mexico policies.”

Art Del Cueto, vice president of the National Border Patrol Council, the union representing a large majority of Border Patrol agents, told Newsweek, “We consider today’s victory for President Trump not just a victory for himself, but a victory for the entire country.” The union endorsed Trump in every election since the 2016 primaries.

The New York Times talked to Democratic-leaning voters who chose Donald Trump on Tuesday because they disapproved of the Biden administration’s handling of the border and migration. “There is no constituency left in this country that favors large-scale immigration,” Muzaffar Chishti of the Migration Policy Institute told the Times’s Miriam Jordan.

Guatemalan analysts and former officials interviewed by Prensa Libre expect a big increase in U.S. pressure to halt migration and accept more deportees after Donald Trump moves into the White House. The same newspaper noted that hopes for Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Guatemalan citizens in the United States have evaporated.

At Palabra, Dianne Solís reflected on the United States’ history of migrant deportations, which Donald Trump proposes to step up massively. For asylum seekers, “Their deportation could be a death sentence,” Jenifer Williams of Dallas-based Migrant Emotional Health told Solís. “They live with a lot of anxiety, usually in the form of PTSD.”

A Colombian government report counted “261,975 detections of migrants in irregular transit to the north of the continent” leaving the country in the first 7 months of 2024. That is a slower pace than in 2023 when Colombia counted 539,959 people over the entire year. Of January-July “detections,” 70.8 percent were citizens of Venezuela.

Bracing Yourself

Here’s some unsolicited advice for how to go about daily life between now and January 20. You may have drawn up a list of your own today. If not, you may feel better after taking a moment to do so.

I’m absolutely not doing all of these things, though I’d like to start many of them.

  • Resist the urge to post “outrage” takes on social media. Daniel Hunter calls that “public angsting,” adding, “It’s demoralizing us. It’s hurting our capacity for action.” Maybe read more instead. Or better yet, spend the time writing or creating something more thoughtful, something that adds value and context, requiring more “emotional labor” than a hot take. At the very least, say, a blog post at a space you own. Then, when that’s done, go to social media and link to it.
  • Get off of Elon Musk’s Twitter. And look at Meta’s properties with skepticism, too. The ideal would be Mastodon—decentralized and immune from corporate takeovers, you can even own your own virtual managed server for not too much money, which I do. But very few people are there. More are on BlueSky, which is also run by a corporation that could change its behavior anytime, but at least for now it feels like “old Twitter.” The fact is, if you do communications, you still need a Twitter and Meta presence because so many audiences are still there: even though those audiences probably hate it, “network lock-in” is real. I’m limiting my own Twitter presence to posting links to items hosted elsewhere, and the very occasional quote-tweet. No original content.
  • Learn best practices for interacting with aggressive security personnel. Know your rights regarding what you are and are absolutely not required to say and what you are not required to allow to be searched. Also, learn best practices for dealing with violent people and people who threaten others. Learn at least some basics of de-escalation and self-defense.
  • Make more time for neighbors and co-workers as well as for family and friends. When you do, listen more than you talk.
  • Turn up your computer’s security settings, even if they’re less convenient. Ditch spying browsers like Chrome. Change passwords. Use a password manager if you don’t already. Cancel accounts for digital services you don’t use. Delete little-used apps that may be leaking location and other data. Consider using a VPN. Encrypt all of your drives and devices. Add more digits to the PIN you use to unlock your phone. Look at more secure communications services like Signal and ProtonMail. Read more tips from the EFF. If your security needs are extreme, use a locked-down Linux distribution like Debian with privacy enhancements, Fedora with security modules, or even Qubes OS.
  • Be gentler on yourself. Sleep 8 hours. Get exercise, but don’t overtrain; in fact, don’t even “train,” just take it slow, but get outside and see the sky. Cut back on—but don’t necessarily cut out completely—items that dull your alertness or weaken your body’s ability to deal with stress, such as booze, caffeine, drugs, refined sugars and carbohydrates, processed foods, and animal products.
  • Be kind. Even to people who don’t seem to deserve it. Just err on the side of kindness. Lots of folks aren’t doing well right now.

Daily Border Links: November 6, 2024

Daily Border Links posts will end this week, on November 8, the Friday after the U.S. elections; we lack resources to maintain this tempo indefinitely. We have been producing these since last November; the archive will remain online.

WOLA will continue to produce Weekly Border Updates, as we have for over four years, and we will continue to send them to the mailing list that you can join here.

Developments

“America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate,” said Donald Trump, as U.S. voters elected him to the presidency with a majority of the electoral and popular votes, while giving the Republican Party a majority of the U.S. Senate and the possibility of a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.

“We’re going to have to seal up those borders and we’re going to have to let people come into our country,” the president-elect said in his acceptance remarks’ only substantive reference to the U.S.-Mexico border. “We want people to come back in, but we have to, we have to let them come back in, but they have to come in legally.”

Based on statements of the president-elect and his surrogates, the list of policies, programs, and migration pathways that a second Trump administration would be likely to end, curtail, or sharply reduce include:

  • Use of the CBP One smartphone app to schedule appointments at U.S.-Mexico border ports of entry.
  • Nearly all access to asylum between ports of entry (which would largely continue a Biden administration policy dating back to early June 2024).
  • The Biden administration’s humanitarian parole program for citizens of Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela.
  • Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA), an Obama-era policy that protects from deportation hundreds of thousands of undocumented people who were brought to the United States as children. Challenges to DACA remain before a federal court.
  • Continued Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for citizens of 16 countries, including El Salvador, Haiti, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Venezuela.
  • Other pathways including family reunification programs and the Central American Minors Program.
  • The “Safe Mobility Offices” program offering access to migration pathways for a limited number of some countries’ migrants in Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, and Guatemala.
  • Assistance to UNHCR, IOM, and humanitarian non-profits helping to integrate migrants in other countries in the Americas, and to provide urgent assistance to those in transit.
  • The FEMA Shelter and Services Program (SSP), which supports municipalities and non-profits, including shelters receiving released migrants.
  • Justice Department challenges to Texas’s border and migration crackdowns, including the S.B. 4 law making unauthorized border crossings a state crime.

Initiatives that may be coming after Trump’s January 20 inauguration may include the following policies, or attempts to implement policies:

  • A campaign of “mass deportation” that could eject millions from the United States via sweeps and raids, internment in staging camps, and large-scale removals, possibly employing military personnel.
  • A renewed “Remain in Mexico” program, if the Mexican government is compelled to agree with it.
  • A possible attempt to use a prevalent disease of non-pandemic proportions as a pretext to revive the “Title 42” policy of expelling asylum seekers. If it happens, it would come with a reversal of the Biden administration’s reluctance to expel unaccompanied minors.
  • Expanded use of detention facilities managed by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), often through private contractors.
  • A “lawfare” campaign, similar to what the Republican attorney-general of Texas has been carrying out, seeking to shut down, punish, and otherwise block the work of shelters, legal aid groups, and other service providers assisting migrants.
  • Renewed border wall construction.
  • More National Guard and perhaps regular military deployments to the U.S.-Mexico border.
  • A more aggressive stance toward the Mexican government, especially on blocking migrants and stopping fentanyl. This may include threats of tariffs on Mexican goods if the Mexican government does not comply with hardline policies, like “Remain in Mexico,” that require its cooperation. Some close to Trump have proposed using drones or Special Forces teams to attack organized crime targets inside Mexico without the Mexican government’s consent.
  • Weaker oversight of Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and Border Patrol in human rights abuse cases.
  • Invoking the Constitution’s “invasion” clause to justify hardline policies, essentially classifying migrants and asylum seekers as the equivalent of an invading army.

Exit polls from CNN and NBC News showed that immigration fell on voters’ list of priority issues, well behind the economy. “There has also been growing unease among voters about deporting those who have been in the country for several years,” noted a Newsweek analysis of poll data.

Arizona voters approved Proposition 314, a ballot measure that makes unauthorized border crossing a state crime. It appears to have won more than 60 percent of the vote. The measure is similar to Texas’s S.B. 4, a law passed in late 2023 that remains on hold pending legal challenges.

Opponents of these laws point to the chaos that could result if states adopt and carry out different immigration policies, and the likelihood that the law might empower local and state police to stop people who look like they are of Latino descent merely on suspicion of having crossed the border illegally.

The Republican Party made historic gains in south Texas’s Rio Grande Valley border region, until recently a solidly Democratic area. Rep. Mónica de la Cruz (R), the first Republican elected in the region in many years, won re-election. Rep. Henry Cuéllar (D), who is under indictment on bribery charges, won re-election by a narrower margin than ever. No call has been made in Rep. Vicente González’s (D) re-election bid.

New Mexico’s border House seat remains in the hands of Rep. Gabe Vásquez (D), by about a 4-point margin.

Fearing an end to CBP One, asylum access, and other migration pathways after Trump’s January 20 inauguration, approximately 2,500 to 3,000 people formed a “caravan” in Mexico’s southern border zone city of Tapachula yesterday. We can expect an increase in migration over the next few months as people seek to get to U.S. soil before the new administration starts closing down existing pathways.

People at Tijuana migrant shelters shared with EFE their fear of being stranded by the electoral result after long journeys to the U.S.-Mexico border region.

InsightCrime reported on the U.S. Treasury Department’s recent sanctions against four people and two companies tied to the Ciudad Juárez-based “La Línea” criminal organization. Treasury holds them responsible for colluding with the Jalisco New Generation Cartel to smuggle fentanyl, a drug that U.S. authorities have overwhelmingly seized at California and Arizona border crossings, not the Ciudad Juárez-El Paso area.

Analyses and Feature Stories

Border Report’s Julián Resendiz talked to political and economic leaders in Ciudad Juárez, including Mayor Cruz Pérez Cuellar, before the U.S. voting began. They worry about Donald Trump’s tariff threats, Mexico’s ability to absorb millions of forcibly deported people, threats to “close” the border, and rhetoric bullying Mexico. A finance sector leader doubted Mexico’s ability to meet Trump’s demands to secure its northern border, since the country has been unable to get a handle on its own public security challenges. Mayor Pérez Cuéllar concluded, however, that “the level of interdependence between the two countries is so large that it is practically impossible” to break.

“It’s not going to happen. It’s just not. It’s going to be an empty campaign promise, to be honest with you,” Thaddeus Cleveland, the sheriff of Terrell County, Texas (Fort Worth), a Trump supporter, told Nexstar about the Trump administration’s plans for a “mass deportation” campaign.

At the Border Chronicle, Melissa del Bosque interviewed Nicole Ramos of the Tijuana and San Diego-based assistance and advocacy group Al Otro Lado. The organization is named in a lawsuit that brought an end to CBP’s policy of “metering” asylum seekers (blocking all but a few from approaching ports of entry). Still, Ramos observed, “Anytime an organization like Al Otro Lado, ACLU, or Raices gets a win on asylum access, the U.S. government creates another policy to evade their obligations under that decision.”

In New York, Documented spoke to Venezuelan asylum seekers who fear that Donald Trump’s administration will force them to leave the United States without a hearing.

At The Conversation, Ragini Shah gave a brief overview of the history of the U.S. Border Patrol, concluding that the agency’s culture continues to be “rough” and soft on human rights abusers within the ranks. “Giving the Border Patrol ever more money, agents and higher-tech equipment only spurs more violence and lawlessness,” Shah concluded.

Although the number of people migrating through the Darién Gap region has declined in 2024, the number of minors migrating unaccompanied has increased, according to a Panama-based UNICEF official. Last year, about 3,300 children walked through the Darién jungles unaccompanied. During the first nine months of 2024, 3,800 children have done so. Most are Venezuelan.

Speaking to advocates and experts from Mexico’s northern and southern borders, an Al Jazeera video program looked at the Mexican government’s undeclared but vigorous 2024 policy of blocking migrants and busing them to the country’s south.

Daily Border Links: November 5, 2024

Daily Border Links posts will end this week, on November 8, the Friday after the U.S. elections; we lack resources to maintain this tempo indefinitely. We have been producing these since last November; the archive will remain online.

WOLA will continue to produce Weekly Border Updates, as we have for over four years, and we will continue to send them to the mailing list that you can join here.

Get daily links in your email

Developments

For the second time since October 1, Mexican soldiers have shot and killed migrants. Members of Mexico’s recently created National Guard, much of whose personnel were transferred from the Army, opened fire on a vehicle near Tecate, Baja California, along the border east of Tijuana. Two Colombian migrants were killed in the November 2 incident, and four others were wounded.

Mexico’s Defense Secretariat (SEDENA, the Army and Air Force) contended that the soldiers fired their weapons in self-defense after alleged smugglers fired on them. Witnesses dispute that: “We had no weapons, we are not criminals, they were never shot at,” a survivor told the Tijuana-based investigative publication Zeta. Witnesses say that, before aiding the wounded, the guard members spent a few minutes cleaning up their spent ammunition cartridges, which, if true, would constitute altering a crime scene.

Three guard members who opened fire have been taken off duty while investigations proceed.

On October 1, soldiers opened fire on a vehicle carrying migrants, killing six. In that case, too, SEDENA claimed that the soldiers responded after hearing “detonations,” though witnesses disputed that.

On Monday, the final day before Election Day, Republican candidate Donald Trump vowed, if elected, to impose a 25 percent tariff on Mexican goods, escalating to 100 percent, if Mexico’s government does not act to stop migrants and fentanyl from crossing its northern border. He said that if he wins today’s elections, his first call will be to Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum to convey this threat.

On the eve of the U.S. election, CBS News spoke with migrants awaiting CBP One appointments in shelters in Nogales, Sonora. They fear a Donald Trump victory today would end the CBP One program. “They’re very scared. They think that the asylum system is going to close,” said immigration attorney Alba Jaramillo.

Reporting from just north of Mexico City, the Los Angeles Times Patrick McDonnell spoke with migrants determined to come to the United States regardless of who is elected. “If you’re a migrant, you’re going to suffer whoever is president,” a Honduran man said.

A measure on the ballot in Arizona would make it a state crime to cross the international border without authorization, the Associated Press reported. Proposition 314 resembles S.B. 4, the Texas law–currently on hold facing legal challenges–that could empower law enforcement to enforce a separate state-level immigration policy, and to stop anyone on suspicion of having crossed the border illegally.

Speaking with Cronkite News, border-area political and law-enforcement leaders voiced reluctance to finding themselves having to use scarce resources to enforce immigration laws, a mission for which they are not trained, if Proposition 314 passes.

At one of the busiest official border crossings between Colombia and Venezuela, authorities are measuring an increase in the number of Venezuelan citizens departing the country. “What is undeniable is that the exodus is still latent along this border and has increased after the electoral process of July 28,” reported the Venezuelan daily La Nación. The paper referred to presidential elections almost certainly won by the political opposition, followed by a wave of repression carried out by the current regime, which denies that result.

Analyses and Feature Stories

Thomas Cartwright at Witness at the Border published his latest monthly report on Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) deportation flights. The agency removed migrants on an average of 5.3 flights per weekday in October, up slightly from September but down from over 6.0 per weekday during the summer. Fewer migrant apprehensions at the border are the likeliest reason for the drop. The top removal destination countries were Guatemala (37 flights in October), Honduras (20), Mexico (20), El Salvador (11), Colombia (9), and Ecuador (9).

The report noted that Panama operated 25 deportation flights between August 1 and November 2, with 989 people—about 1.5 percent of Darién Gap migration—taken to Colombia (19), Ecuador (5), and India (1).

At InsightCrime, Steven Dudley and Parker Asmann highlighted the sharp contrasts between two Arizona border-zone sheriffs. Mark Dannels of Cochise County is an outspoken border and migration hardliner who often appears on Fox News and as a Republican congressional hearing witness. David Hathaway, from neighboring Santa Cruz County (which includes Nogales), favors a more humanitarian approach that prevents harm to migrants.

On the Right

Daily Border Links: November 4, 2024

Daily Border Links posts will end this week, on November 8, the Friday after the U.S. elections; we lack resources to maintain this tempo indefinitely. We have been producing these since last November; the archive will remain online.

WOLA will continue to produce Weekly Border Updates, as we have for over four years, and we will continue to send them to the mailing list that you can join here.

Get daily links in your email

Developments

About 200 families participated in the annual “Hugs Not Walls” event organized by the Border Network for Human Rights in El Paso. For a few minutes, people living in El Paso shared a moment in person with loved ones living on the Ciudad Juárez side of the border.

Reporting from coastal Ecuador, Elliot Spagat of the Associated Press documented the spike in organized crime-violence that has made many communities unlivable and populations desperate, spurring an increase in migration that made Ecuador the number-seven nationality of migrants encountered at the U.S.-Mexico border in 2024.

Mexican migration officials “discreetly” dismantled a 500-person migrant “caravan” a few days after its members entered the southern state of Oaxaca from Chiapas. The officials reportedly told people they would be transported further into Oaxaca; while some boarded buses, migrants quoted by Milenio voiced fear that they would instead be sent back to Mexico’s southern border.

Three unnamed U.S. officials told CBS News that migration to the U.S.-Mexico border could “spike” if Donald Trump wins tomorrow’s presidential election, as migrants race to get to U.S. soil before Inauguration Day.

The Gulf Clan, the organized crime group that dominates Colombia’s entrance to the Darién Gap migration route, called on the U.S. and Colombian governments to “join a constructive dialogue” about migration, drugs, and deforestation. The group charges roughly $50 to $80 or more per person to allow migrants to enter the Darién and manages “guides” and other services on the Colombian side of the trail. Colombian President Gustavo Petro’s government is conducting informal talks with the Gulf Clan about its potential demobilization.

Two Colombian migrants were killed, and another five reportedly wounded, in an apparent crossfire involving organized crime in Tecate, along Mexico’s northern border east of San Diego and Tijuana.

Along the border wall in Tijuana, the Casa del Migrante migrant shelter and the coalition Pro Defensa de los Migrantes installed an altar to commemorate migrants who have died trying to reach the United States. “In the last six years, at least 225 people have lost their lives at the border [in the area], either because of extreme weather conditions or because of the violence that stalks them,” said Father Pat Murphy of the Casa del Migrante.

Analyses and Feature Stories

A New York Times analysis concluded that the Biden administration failed to leave behind any lasting solution to the U.S. government’s “fundamentally broken” immigration system. Biden’s reform goals, the Times noted, “were stymied by the need to confront a worldwide surge of displaced people fleeing their homes and a determined Republican opposition.”

The Washington Post noted several Democratic candidates’ rightward drift on border and migration policies in closely fought legislative races.

NPR, too, noted the Biden administration’s turn away from reform and toward “enforcement, restrictions, and punishments – a strategy at times indistinguishable from the Trump administration.”

At its Immigration Impact site, the American Immigration Council explained key aspects of the “Border Act of 2024,” the oft-cited bill that failed to pass the Senate in February 2024 following months of negotiations between a group of Democratic and Republican senators. While the bill would open up some immigration pathways and preserve presidential humanitarian parole authority, it also would codify bans on asylum during busy periods, raise standards some asylum seekers would have to meet, and add funding for barrier construction and migrant detention.

At ProPublica, Emily Green reported on rampant kidnappings of migrants near Ciudad Hidalgo, Chiapas, on Mexico’s southern border en route to Tapachula. With only modest pressure from authorities, criminals are holding hundreds of migrants in livestock pens until they pay a ransom of about $75 per person. “The kidnapping is so widespread and open that migrants walk around Tapachula with stamps of a bird on their forearms as a sign that they paid the ransom.”

Green noted that the situation is worsened by Mexico’s vigorous busing of migrants to Tapachula and other southern Mexican destinations after apprehending them elsewhere in the country. Last week, the Associated Press, too, reported on this suddenly worsening kidnapping wave at Mexico’s southern border.

In an article for the Times of London, Thomas Graham illustrated Mexico’s busing policy, which has helped to reduce the number of migrants entering U.S. custody at the northern border while stranding tens of thousands in Mexico.

The Washington Post’s Arelis Hernández followed the journey of the Orasma family from Azure, Venezuela, to the United States, illustrating the political and logistical obstacles thrown in asylum seekers’ way. The family, once solidly middle class, underwent a harrowing trip through the Darién Gap and atop Mexico’s “La Bestia” cargo train, forced by Mexico’s crackdown to turn to exploitative smugglers. They documented the trip with photos and videos. The Orasmas are now in New York, struggling amid delays in obtaining a work permit.

ProPublica and the Texas Tribune profiled Joe Frank Martinez, a Democrat who is the first Latino sheriff of Val Verde County, which includes the border town of Del Rio. Martínez has come under political fire for perceived leniency toward migrants, as local political opinion has grown more hostile to them, even though border management is not part of the sheriff’s job.

In Laredo, Texas, a border city whose voters have opposed having a border wall built along its riverfront, local leaders worry about such construction happening if Donald Trump wins the election, the Laredo Morning Times reported.

At Mother Jones, Tim Murphy explained that a legal crusade against Texas border-area organizations assisting migrants, led by the state’s hardline attorney general Ken Paxton (R), stems from a conspiracy theory about undocumented migrants being registered to vote in elections.

A Politico article by Myah Ward told the story of Angelina and her father Teodoro, a Guatemalan migrant family separated for seven months by the Trump administration’s family separation policy in 2017, when Angelina was eight. Both continue to suffer trauma symptoms.

A story at the independent Nicaraguan website Confidencial made clear that after emerging from the Darién Gap jungles, migrants’ road through Central America is little, if at all, easier. What is loosely called a “humanitarian corridor” through Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and Honduras is more of an effort “to ‘pass the buck’ and get rid of them as soon as possible.” Among those countries, Nicaragua is a “black hole” without a transportation policy, where officials often demand bribes to allow migrants to pass through.

“As of June 2024, around 86% of asylum-seekers, refugees, and stateless people in the Americas lived in countries highly vulnerable to climate disruptions, where limited capacity hinders effective responses and mitigation efforts,” read a UNHCR fact sheet on “Americas Climate Action.”

On the Right

Weekly Migration in the Three “Busiest” U.S.-Mexico Border Sectors

	San Diego (California) Sector
Feb 28 - Mar 5	8168
March 6-12	8389
March 13-19	6985
March 20-26	7353
Mar 27 - April 7	6698
April 3-9	6997
April 10-16	8959
April 17-23	9513
April 24-30	10023
May 1-7	8303
May 8-14	8016
May 15-21	6157
May 22-28	6777
May 29-Jun 4	8488
June 5-11	7693
June 12-18	
June 19-22	
June 23-29	3696
Jun 30 - Jul 6	3958
July 7-13	
July 14-20	3552
July 21-27	3089
Jul 28 - Aug 3	3174
August 4-10	3389
August 11-17	3237
August 18-24	3063
August 25-31	3557
Sep 1-7	4000
September 8-14	3169
September 15-21	3292
September 22-28	2294
Sep 29 - Oct 5	2803
October 6-12	3016
October 13-19	3710
October 20-26	3228

	Tucson (Arizona) Sector
March 1-7	12200
March 8-14	10500
March 15-21	9000
March 22-28	7200
Mar 29 - Apr 4	6600
April 5-11	6700
April 12-18	7500
April 17-23	7600
Apr 26 - May 2	7900
May 3-9	7300
May 10-16	6700
May 18-24	7400
May 25-31	7800
June 1-6	7500
June 7-13	6900
June 14-20	4900
June 21-27	3700
Jun 28 - Jul 4	2900
July 5-11	2700
July 12-18	2600
July 19-25	2400
Jul 26 - Aug 1	2800
August 2-8	2400
August 9-15	2600
August 16-22	2500
August 23-29	2900
Aug 30 - Sep 5	2700
Sep 6-12	2500
September 13-19	2500
September 20-26	2400
Sep 27-Oct 3	2800
October 4-10	2400
October 11-17	2400
October 18-24	2600
October 25-31	2600

	El Paso
Week 10	7791
Week 11	5656
Week 12	5761
Week 13	7756
Week 14	7112
Week 15	6678
Week 16	8463
Week 17	7028
Week 18	5397
Week 19	5586
Week 20	5397
Week 21	4704
Week 22	5082
Week 23	4417
Week 24	3164
Week 25	3234
Week 26	2702
Week 27	2807
Week 28	2597
Week 29	2296
Week 30	2597
Week 31	2800
Week 32	3010
Week 33	2975
Week 34	2968
Week 35	3171
Week 36	2940
Week 37	2716
Week 38	2968
Week 39	2968
Week 40	2653
Week 41	2380
Week 42	2471
Week 43	2380
Week 44	2394

This chart shows the number of migrants apprehended by Border Patrol each week in the three geographic sectors at the U.S.-Mexico border where the agency apprehends the most people right now. (Border Patrol has nine U.S.-Mexico border sectors.)

Numbers have been remarkably flat since late June, following the Biden administration’s June 4 declaration of a near-total ban on asylum access for migrants arriving at the border between ports of entry. I don’t have a big archive of weekly apprehensions data, but looking at months, it is unusual to see migration remain at a low level following a decline for more than six months or so. We’re at four months now.

The source for the San Diego (California) and Tucson (Arizona) sectors is weekly tweets from the sectors’ chiefs. The source for the El Paso (far west Texas plus New Mexico) sector is the city of El Paso.

Latin America-Related Events in Washington and Online This Week

(Events that I know of, anyway. All times are U.S. Eastern.)

Wednesday, November 6

Thursday, November 7

  • 10:00-11:00 at USIP: First in War, First in Peace: Building Post-Conflict Stability and Democracy (RSVP required).

Friday, November 8

I Don’t Deal Well With Uncertainty

Ahead of Tuesday’s election, most states have early voting. A few states report the party registrations of those who vote early.

Even though this is almost certainly not a useful indicator of the final result, I have a spreadsheet of those states. (If you click on that link, choose “USE TEMPLATE” at the top, which makes your own copy so you can change the orange numbers yourself, which are my assumptions about how each party’s voters might actually vote).

OK, let’s assume that 96 percent of Democratic-registered early voters chose Harris, and 2 percent of all voters chose third parties. What would Harris need in these states to get over 50% of the early vote so far?

(As of 3:20 PM Eastern on November 1)

Alaska: 8,962 more Republicans than Democrats have voted (15%). To get over 50%, Harris would need:

  • 25% of Rs plus 50% of independents, or
  • 18% of Rs plus 55% of independents, or
  • 8% of Rs plus 62% of independents, or
  • 4% of Rs plus 65% of independents.
  • Seems barely attainable, probably out of reach, for Harris.

Arizona: 175,951 more Republicans than Democrats have voted (8.1%). To get over 50%, Harris would need:

Florida: 777,760 more Republicans than Democrats have voted (11.6%). To get over 50%, Harris would need:

  • 16% of Rs plus 50% of independents, or
  • 10% of Rs plus 62% of independents, or
  • 8% of Rs plus 66% of independents, or
  • 4% of Rs plus 74% of independents.
  • Seems out of reach for Harris.

Iowa: 2,099 more Democrats than Republicans have voted (0.4%).

  • Already over 50%.
  • Vote by mail only
  • Hard to tell anything because Iowa is just by mail—which Democrats seem to prefer—and has no real in-person early voting.

Maine’s 2nd Congressional District: 4,725 more Democrats than Republicans have voted (4.7%).

  • Already over 50%.
  • However, expected to go Republican as it did in 2016 and 2020.

Nevada: 47,285 more Republicans than Democrats have voted (3.5%). To get over 50%, Harris would need:

  • 11% of Rs plus 50% of independents, or
  • 8% of Rs plus 53% of independents, or
  • 6% of Rs plus 56% of independents, or
  • 4% of Rs plus 59% of independents.
  • Seems attainable for Harris, but not easy.

New Mexico: 58,326 more Democrats than Republicans have voted (10.4%).

  • Already over 50%.
  • Seems attainable for Harris.

North Carolina: 50,569 more Republicans than Democrats have voted (1.3%). To get over 50%, Harris would need:

  • 6% of Rs plus 50% of independents, or
  • 5% of Rs plus 51% of independents, or
  • 4% of Rs plus 52% of independents, or
  • 3% of Rs plus 53% of independents, or
  • 2% of Rs plus 54% of independents, or
  • 1% of Rs plus 55% of independents.
  • This says early voters polled have chosen Harris by a 2-6 point margin.
  • Seems more attainable than Nevada and Arizona, but it could be tough.

Pennsylvania: 393,147 more Democrats than Republicans have voted (23.5%).

And that’s it. You deal with election anxiety your way, and I’ll deal with it my way. My spreadsheet is here.

Daily Border Links: November 1, 2024

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Developments

Citing “preliminary figures,” Reuters reported that Border Patrol apprehended about 54,000 migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border in October. That is almost identical to September’s apprehension number (53,858) and very similar to July’s (56,400) and August’s (58,009).

Dual crackdowns—Mexico’s stepped-up blocking and southward busing of migrants, and the Biden administration’s June asylum restrictions—continue to keep apprehensions at their lowest level since September 2020. However, the number stopped declining months ago.

On October 31, Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino said that the number of migrants transiting the treacherous Darién Gap would likely be “a little more than 21,542.” That would be a modest drop in Darién Gap migration from 25,111 in September. Citizens of Venezuela remain by far the number-one nationality.

Mulino said that, mainly with U.S. support, Panama has run 23 deportation flights since early August, sending about 800 people primarily to Colombia and Ecuador but some to China and India. The president, who took office in July, reiterated the terms of an October 25 decree instituting steep fines for people, like Darién border-crossers, who enter the country without authorization.

The U.S. government sent a deportation flight to Haiti on October 31 with 77 people aboard, even as a gang offensive is intensifying, the Miami Herald reported. On October 26, a gang coalition called Viv Ansanm looted and burned a Missionaries of Charity convent and hospital in Port-au-Prince, which Mother Teresa had inaugurated in 1979.

In Mexico’s southern border-zone city of Tapachula, Chiapas, hundreds of people with confirmed appointments at U.S. border ports of entry, made using the CBP One app, are “saturating” the local offices of Mexico’s migration agency (National Migration Institute, INM), La Jornada reported. They are demanding that the agency issue permits allowing them to transit Mexican territory to attend their appointments. It is unclear whether the backlog owes to any changes at INM, which has offered to coordinate protected travel from Chiapas for at least some of those with appointments.

Analyses and Feature Stories

As migrant smuggling organizations have become wealthier and more sophisticated, U.S. law enforcement agencies are struggling to catch up, facing resource, judicial, and intelligence gaps, concluded a Washington Post investigation, focusing on a case in Guatemala, by Mexico-Central America correspondent Mary Beth Sheridan. U.S. agencies are also hampered by decades of focus specifically on drug trafficking instead of human smuggling, and by partner nations’ official corruption.

Five organizations, including border-area service providers, released a report about climate-related migration, finding that the expected increase in people fleeing climate change is now happening. The report provides data on responses from over 3,600 migrants whom Al Otro Lado, Haitian Bridge Alliance, International Refugee Assistance Project, and Las Americas Immigrant Advocacy Center have served, including over 3,000 from the Americas. Of those from the Americas, 43 percent “reported experiencing environmental disasters such as hurricanes, droughts, extreme heat, and floods in their home countries.” The report recommends expanding legal immigration pathways for climate refugees and victims.

The International Refugee Assistance Project issued a “practice advisory” clarifying that Cuban, Haitian, Nicaraguan, and Venezuelan recipients of two years’ humanitarian parole, under a Biden administration initiative that has helped reduce border apprehensions from those nationalities, still have the right to apply for a renewal of their parole status. Many descriptions of an early October Biden administration policy change have erroneously interpreted it as refusing parole renewals; the change, in fact, specifies that while there is no “re-parole process,” it remains true that “any individual parolee may apply to renew their parole.”

In a report from San Diego and Tijuana at KQED News, Tyche Hendricks explained the recent decline in the number of migrants arriving at the border, the crackdowns and legal pathways that enabled it, human rights concerns, and the likelihood that lower numbers might persist.

The San Diego-based iNewSource reported from Tijuana where large numbers of migrants, including Mexican citizens fleeing violence in their own country, are enduring long waits for appointments at U.S. ports of entry using the CBP One app. While they wait, migrant children are showing signs of regression and trauma, while parents struggle with emotional distress. One family interviewed by reporter Sofía Mejías-Pascoe has waited over a year for a CBP One appointment. “Asylum isn’t something you can schedule,” said Christina Asencio of Human Rights First.

At the Border Chronicle, Todd Miller reflected on the prominent role that the border and its barrier continue to play in a third consecutive U.S. election campaign. “Contemplating Trump’s rhetoric decrying U.S. ‘open borders’ while in the shadow of the wall is absurd,” Miller concluded.

At the Progressive, Jeff Abbott examined the harm that a “mass deportation” campaign, which U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump is promising, would do to economic and political stability in Central America. Sending millions of Central American migrants back to impoverished countries, thus halting remittance flows, “would be the worst catastrophe that could possibly occur. It would be worse than a major earthquake,” said a former president of El Salvador’s central bank.

At USA Today, Nick Penzenstadler and Lauren Villagrán examined how much the federal government might have to pay to carry out Trump’s plan, and how handsomely its private contractors would profit.

The Associated Press profiled Sam Schultz, a 69-year-old volunteer who shuns politics and doggedly provides daily assistance to migrants waiting to be processed for asylum in the cold, rugged hills near the border around Jacumba Springs, California.

On the Right

Weekly U.S.-Mexico Border Update: November 1, 2024

With this series of weekly updates, WOLA seeks to cover the most important developments at the U.S.-Mexico border. See past weekly updates here.

Support ad-free, paywall-free Weekly Border Updates. Your donation to WOLA is crucial to sustain this effort. Please contribute now and support our work.

THIS WEEK IN BRIEF:

While border security and migration have been top issues in the too-close-to-call  U.S. presidential campaign, its last full week was not dominated by a single theme, narrative, or developing story. This section presents a series of links to coverage of incremental developments and links to substantial analyses of both candidates’ positions, likely outcomes if each is elected, views from swing states and border states, and how policy debates have shifted in 2024.

Along with the Biden administration’s June restrictions on asylum, a key reason why migration has declined during the 2024 election year is an unstated but vigorous Mexican government strategy of stepped-up interceptions of migrants, many of whom Mexican authorities then transfer to the country’s far south. This section presents links to several accounts of the impact this policy is having on people along the route through Mexico.

Panama’s recently inaugurated president issued a decree requiring migrants to pay fines for unlawful entry after they emerge from the treacherous Darién Gap jungle route. These fines may be waived or adjusted according to migrants’ “vulnerability.” President Raúl Mulino said he hopes to expand an ongoing program of deportation flights to include citizens of Venezuela. After rising sharply from August to September, the number of migrants transiting the Darién appears to have leveled off or increased slightly during the first half of October.

THE FULL UPDATE:

Read More

Season 1 of WOLA’s “Border Update” Videos

Every week between August 7 and October 30—that is, 12 times—I threw together a script and some visuals on Tuesday afternoon, and then on Wednesday morning WOLA’s terrific communications team would set me up with a camera and a microphone to record, then edit and distribute, a 2-minute video about the U.S.-Mexico border and migration.

It was a good experience as we “learned by doing.” While they never went viral, we got much more sophisticated over those three months in communicating the message. They still look thrown together quickly, but the more recent ones look far less like “hostage proof-of-life” videos than the earlier ones.

Here is the entire YouTube playlist, and a page that WOLA has created to host some of the videos.

And below, after the jump, is each video embedded individually, in reverse chronological order.

Read More

Mexican Authorities’ Migrant Encounters Now Rival CBP’s

In July, absolutely for the first time ever, Mexico reported “encountering” (apprehending, blocking, turning back, detaining) more migrants in its territory than U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP, which includes Border Patrol) reported encountering at the U.S.-Mexico border.

Citing a “restructuring process,” Mexico’s authorities say their reporting of September data will be delayed, but at least through August, the two countries’ migrant encounters remain nearly equal for the first time in history. And, of course, the U.S. figure includes Mexican citizens, and Mexico’s does not.

Much has been written about Mexico’s undeclared but vigorous policy of redirecting other nations’ migrants to the country’s south and cutting way back on humanitarian visas, even as detention and deportation have grown less frequent. It’s been called the “chutes and ladders” or “merry-go-round” policy, shipping people south when they try to come north.

A few sources:

Daily Border Links: October 31, 2024

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Developments

Smugglers abandoned four unaccompanied migrant children on an inflatable raft in the Rio Grande near Brownsville, Texas, Border Patrol reported.

CBP reported that a man whom officers shot and wounded at Nogales, Arizona’s DeConcini port of entry on October 16 had 3,140 rounds of AK-47-style rifle ammunition stashed in his vehicle’s spare tire.

Fox News covered the Trump campaign’s pledge to take down billboards in Texas, posted by the Department of Homeland Security’s Office of the Immigration Detention Ombudsman (OIDO), reminding people with relatives in immigration custody that those relatives have recourse if they are being abused. Republican legislators have sought to defund and shut down OIDO, which was created in response to 2019 Democratic-led legislation.

Texas’s state government has named the Tren de Aragua, a Venezuelan criminal organization, a “tier 1” gang threat, alongside “notorious prison gangs the Texas Syndicate and the Mexican Mafia, as well as the Aryan Brotherhood of Texas, the Crips, the Bloods, and the Latin Kings,” according to the Dallas Morning News.

Analyses and Feature Stories

Yesterday’s WOLA-organized discussion of state forces’ human rights abuse at the Texas-Mexico border, with experts and advocates from Human Rights Watch, Hope Border Institute, Eagle Pass Border Coalition, and Alliance San Diego, is viewable on YouTube. Border Report published highlights of the event.

Writing for Puente News Collaborative and the Arizona Center for Investigative Reporting, Alfredo Corchado profiled Arvin West, the sheriff of Hudspeth County, Texas, just east of El Paso. A prominent border hardliner, West has become disillusioned with the politicization of the national debate on border security and migration and now supports more pragmatic, local approaches.

  • Alfredo Corchado, A Lawman’s Change of Heart (Puente News Collaborative, Arizona Center for Investigative Reporting, October 30, 2024).

A detailed analysis by Lillian Perlmutter at Rolling Stone discussed the harder-line turn in the Biden administration’s border policies, including strict limits on asylum access. “In their attempt to find a message that resonates with the American public,” Perlmutter wrote, “Democrats have forced hundreds of thousands of migrants into potentially deadly situations.”

At America: The Jesuit Review, David Agren covered the Mexican government’s undeclared but vigorous effort, launched at the beginning of the year, to block migrants attempting to transit Mexico’s territory and reroute many of them to the country’s south. Agren added that many people migrating in Mexico feel an urgency to obtain CBP One appointments before Donald Trump, if he wins the November 5 elections, terminates the program. Brian Strassburger, a Jesuit priest working in south Texas and Tamaulipas, Mexico, said that the wait for CBP One appointments is now often seven months for non-Mexican migrants and ten months for Mexicans.

Reporting from El Paso and Ciudad Juárez, Agénce France Presse noted how the Biden administration’s restrictions on asylum between ports of entry have reduced unauthorized border crossings and channeled migrants into long waits for CBP One appointments.

Reflecting on a recent visit to the Darién Gap in the Los Angeles Times, Human Rights Watch director Tirana Hassan called for more robust U.S. measures against Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro and his inner circle, and to do much more to “uphold the rights of migrants and asylum seekers fleeing the crisis in Venezuela.” Hassan laments that instead, the Biden administration “has put Venezuelans in further danger and undercut their access to asylum.”

Data that the Cato Institute obtained via the Freedom of Information Act reveals that the Trump administration “released nearly 58,184 noncitizens with criminal records, including 8,620 violent criminals and 306 murderers,” often to clear detention space for asylum seekers arriving at the border. Cato’s David Bier noted that the Title 42 pandemic expulsions policy, which the Trump administration launched in March 2020, “removed consequences for convicted criminals who crossed the border illegally, enabling them to try again and again.”

Writing for Mother Jones, Isabela Dias covered immigrant rights defense groups’ scenario planning and preparations for responding to a possible Donald Trump victory in Tuesday’s elections. “Strategic litigation is only part of their calculus. Another huge component is community education and readiness.”

At Washington Monthly, Bill Scher looked at the data and concluded that the Trump administration was more effective at curbing legal migration than reducing unauthorized migration to the United States.

Reporting from North Carolina, the Australian network ABC concluded that Republican political candidates are having some success spreading the inaccurate belief that migrants bring fentanyl across the U.S.-Mexico border. (More than 90 percent is seized from vehicles, and more than 80 percent of those arrested at ports of entry are U.S. citizens.)

Daily Border Links: October 30, 2024

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Developments

Associated Press reporter María Verza reported from Mexico’s southern border with Guatemala, where she found “migrants continue pouring into Mexico” but organized crime—which has vastly ramped up ransom kidnappings in the area—is doing more to “manage the flow” of migrants than Mexican authorities. Released kidnap victims say that criminals are holding about 500 people at a time at a ranch near the border town of Ciudad Hidalgo; they stamp the skin of those who pay for their release, while those who cannot pay are often sexually assaulted.

At Mexico’s northern border, the Ciudad Juárez newspaper El Norte reported on a proliferation of “safe houses” where smugglers or kidnappers hold migrants, “packing them in like sardines.” In recent years, the report found, these houses have become more common in more central urban neighborhoods, not just on the city’s outskirts.

Texas’s state government has made a second large land purchase along the border so that it might build border barriers on the properties. Following news yesterday of the purchase of a 1,400-acre ranch along the border in Starr County, in the southern part of the state, the Texas General Land Office revealed that it has bought the 353,785-acre Brewster Ranch, bordering Big Bend National Park. “The ranch had been listed for $245,678,330,” according to the Land Report.

Cochise County, a border county in southeast Arizona, held a dedication ceremony for a new multi-million-dollar “Border Operations Center” to support local, state, and federal law enforcement agencies. At the ceremony, Gov. Katie Hobbs, a Democrat, criticized “the federal government’s failure to address” border issues.

Analyses and Feature Stories

WOLA, together with Alliance San Diego, the Eagle Pass Border Coalition, Hope Border Institute, and Human Rights Watch, is hosting a webinar about human rights and state border security forces’ use of force along the borderline in Texas. It starts at 5:00 Eastern today, and registration is open.

Young people unable to find decent employment, many of them well educated, are heavily represented in the population of Colombian citizens emigrating, according to a report from Colombia’s La Silla Vacía. Colombia was the number-six nationality of migrants encountered at the U.S.-Mexico border in fiscal 2024. The article also cites a recent worsening of citizen security as a reason for Colombians choosing to leave.

Border Report contrasted the views of conservatives who want the State Department to push countries along the migration route to do more to block people from coming to the United States, with the views of rights advocates who contend that the solution lies in expanding legal pathways for safer migration, including through reform of U.S. immigration laws.

On the Right

Daily Border Links: October 29, 2024

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Developments

Mexico’s army reported seizing over 900 kilograms (1,984 pounds) of cocaine in San Luis Rio Colorado, Sonora, a border town near Yuma, Arizona. This one seizure is equivalent to one-fifteenth of all cocaine that Customs and Border Protection (CBP) reported seizing at the border throughout fiscal 2024 (30,383 pounds, or 13,781 kilograms).

On Friday, hospitals in Texas must begin collecting information about their patients’ citizenship status, under an executive order from Gov. Greg Abbott (R).

Abbott’s state government has purchased a 1,400-acre ranch along the border in Starr County, in the southern part of Texas, where it plans to build a new length of border wall, Fox News reported.

Analyses and Feature Stories

Reuters reported on Mexico’s policy, begun in January, of blocking in-transit migrants and systematically transporting many to the country’s south. The undeclared but vigorous effort is a central reason why the number of migrants arriving at the U.S.-Mexico border is down during the 2024 U.S. election campaign. Reuters revealed that Mexico’s migration authority has paid over $65 million to one charter bus company since last year.

A New York Times analysis concluded that regardless of who wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election, curbs on the right to access asylum at the U.S.-Mexico border are likely to remain in place or become even stiffer. As a result, many asylum seekers in North America and Europe “are finding themselves increasingly stranded in desperate, unsafe conditions like camps or crowded boats.”

At Vox, Nicole Narea evaluated Donald Trump’s oft-repeated campaign promise by examining past attempts at “mass deportation” and past challenges to the overuse of wartime powers.

“Fearmongering over the threat that illegal immigration poses to native-born white women is misleading at best,” David Kirkpatrick wrote at the New Yorker. Still, Republican candidates and Fox News are winning over some voters in close states by amplifying cases like the murder of Georgia nursing student Laken Riley, allegedly by a man who recently migrated from Venezuela.

Anti-immigrant attitudes could also affect the election outcome in Wisconsin, a swing state where many migrants have settled in response to unmet labor needs, Alfredo Corchado and Dudley Althaus wrote at the San Antonio Express-News. However, they find that the state’s small Latino vote could counteract those attitudes.

Similarly, the New York Times looked at how candidates in New York state have sought to gain an electoral advantage from a large increase in migrant arrivals to New York City during the Biden administration.

At Caracas Chronicles, Carlos Rodríguez López wrote about how “unsustained allegations about an exponential rise of violent crime brought by Venezuelan gangs” have made Venezuelan migrants a “political football” in the 2024 election campaign. Only 35 percent of people of Venezuelan origin in the United States have U.S. citizenship, Rodríguez López points out: many are recent arrivals, and most cannot vote.

The New York Times’s Miriam Jordan told the story of José, a sixth-grader living with his parents in Houston, whom Border Patrol agents had separated from his family in May 2018, at the height of the Trump administration’s family separation policy. “I don’t trust anybody,” the boy said. “I just trust my mom and dad.”

On the Right

Daily Border Links: October 28, 2024

Daily Border Links posts will end at the end of next week, on November 8, the Friday after the U.S. elections; we lack resources to maintain this tempo indefinitely. This page will remain online as an archive of the past year’s developments.

WOLA will continue to produce Weekly Border Updates, as we have for over four years, and we will continue to send them to the mailing list that you can join here.

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Developments

Panama’s president issued a decree establishing fines of $300 to as much as $5,000 for people who enter the country irregularly through the border with Colombia: the Darién Gap jungle route that nearly 800,000 migrants have traversed since 2023. The fine may be adjusted according to migrants’ state of “vulnerability.” Those who do not pay may be prohibited from moving on to Costa Rica and subject to deportation.

EFE reported that “as of October 13, 274,444 irregular travelers have arrived in Panama through the jungle.” That means 11,148 people migrated through the Darién during those 13 days, or 858 per day. That is a very slight increase over the 837 per day reported in September.

The human rights ombudsmen’s offices of Colombia and Panama signed a “letter of binational understanding” pledging increased cooperation on humanitarian and human rights monitoring in the Darién Gap region, where large but untold numbers of migrants perish or are assaulted, robbed, and raped by criminal groups.

A Border Patrol vehicle pursuit southeast of San Diego ended with a crash, killing two citizens of Mexico aboard, on October 22.

The population of Venezuelan migrants in Mexico City—many awaiting CBP One appointments at the U.S.-Mexico border—may have increased 13-fold from 2021 to 2023, judging from a municipal welfare agency’s count of the number of people served, Milenio reported. Many are in the central district of Cuauhtémoc, finding work paying about $60-120 per week.

In Mexico’s border state of Chihuahua, the state government’s security department established a police task force to track the activities of Tren de Aragua, the Venezuelan organized crime group. At the federal level, the Secretary of Security and Citizen Protection, Omar García Harfuch, said on October 25 that while security forces have arrested some Tren de Aragua members, “we do not have this group registered as the main generator of violence.”

Leonard Darnell George, a CBP officer found guilty of taking bribes to allow drugs to cross the border through California ports of entry, was sentenced to 23 years in prison. “Prosecutors allege George was so entrenched with the drug traffickers that one trafficking associate took a selfie photograph of himself wearing George’s CBP uniform jacket,” reported San Diego’s NBC affiliate.

Analyses and Feature Stories

CBS News’s 60 Minutes program aired a segment about Republican candidate Donald Trump’s’ plan to carry out a mass deportation campaign if elected. Tom Homan, who was the acting director of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) during Trump’s presidency, said that separating migrant families “needs to be considered, absolutely.”

CBS looked at the last time the U.S. government carried out mass sweeps to deport people–during the Eisenhower administration, an example that Trump cites often–and found that “this short-term show-of-force did not stop the problem.”

The Associated Press reported that some children separated from their parents by the Trump administration are telling their painful stories in social media videos and pro-Kamala Harris campaign events. ACLU attorney Lee Gelernt recalled that as many as 1,000 families remain separated over six years later.

At the New York Review of Books, John Washington profiled a woman who fled Guatemala but is stranded in the border city of Nogales, Mexico, after being refused an opportunity to seek asylum in the United States due to Biden administration restrictions. She and her son have been kidnapped twice by criminal groups in Mexico.

At Foreign Affairs, veteran journalist Julia Preston found that, despite the Democratic candidate’s rightward turn on border security and immigration policy, Kamala Harris and the much harder-line Donald Trump offer policy choices that differ in “stark and consequential” ways.

Eurasia Review spoke to Yale University sociologist Ángel Escamilla García, whose interviews with unaccompanied Central American minor children migrating through Mexico showed a significant level of knowledge of U.S. immigration law. A 17-year-old girl from Honduras said she decided not to reveal being raped during the journey “after learning that rape and other physical violence migrants suffer en route to the United States is irrelevant to their asylum applications.”

On the Right

Latin America-Related Events in Washington and Online This Week

(Events that I know of, anyway. All times are U.S. Eastern.)

Monday, October 28

Tuesday, October 29

Wednesday, October 30

  • 9:30-11:00 at stimson.org: Assessing Global Arms Trade Transparency (RSVP required).
  • 11:00-12:00 at thedialogue.org: A Conversation with Paul Simons on the US Election and the Future of Energy and Climate in Latin America (RSVP required).
  • 11:00-12:30 at wilsoncenter.org: Nuclear Strain: Looking Back at Brazil-US Nuclear Diplomatic Relations (RSVP required).
  • 5:00-6:30 at wola.org: Texas’s Operation Lone Star: Abuse on the Borderline (RSVP required). (Hey, I’m organizing this one. Don’t miss it.)

Thursday, October 31

  • 10:00 at migrationpolicy.org: Charting a Smart Agenda for Managing Climate Migration (RSVP required).
  • 10:00-11:30 at the Inter-American Dialogue and online: Social Media and Elections: Navigating Disinformation and Free Speech (RSVP required).
  • 11:00-12:15 at wilsoncenter.org: Mexico’s Constitutional Changes: Energy Outlook and Implications (RSVP required).
  • 2:00-3:00 at George Washington University: Crime and Policing in Brazil (RSVP required).

A Useless Sheet that Extrapolates 2024 Early Vote Data

One way to work through electoral anxiety is by doing useless math.

Here’s a sheet generating predictions from the latest early vote numbers from some key states that report party affiliation.

This is meaningless—early vote may not reflect anything—and is based on gut assumptions (the orange numbers). But maybe it can distract you for a while? And either way, it shows how critical it will be to keep knocking doors and getting voters off of their sofas over the next nine days.

Here’s the Google sheet: click on “USE TEMPLATE” at the top, and change the orange numbers yourself.

Weekly U.S.-Mexico Border Update: October 25, 2024

With this series of weekly updates, WOLA seeks to cover the most important developments at the U.S.-Mexico border. See past weekly updates here.

Support ad-free, paywall-free Weekly Border Updates. Your donation to WOLA is crucial to sustain this effort. Please contribute now and support our work.

THIS WEEK IN BRIEF:

Customs and Border Protection (CBP) released information about migration in September, the final month of the U.S. federal government’s fiscal year. It showed a 25 percent year-on-year drop in Border Patrol’s migrant apprehensions, with most of the reduction happening since January and more sharply since June. That is the result of a Mexican government crackdown on migration transiting the country, along with the Biden administration’s new restrictions on asylum access. Data also show a 26 percent drop in seizures of the drug fentanyl, the first decline since fentanyl began appearing in the mid-2010s.

The federal judiciary’s Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals upheld an earlier district court verdict finding that the practice of “metering”–posting CBP officers on the borderline to turn asylum seekers back from border ports of entry—is illegal. The decision caps seven years of litigation from migrant rights advocates. It does not directly affect the Biden administration’s current policy of turning back asylum seekers who have not made appointments at ports of entry using the CBP One app; legal challenges continue in that case.

“Caravans” of migrants, some saying they fear losing access to asylum and CBP One pathways after the U.S. election, have been forming in Mexico’s far south. Darién Gap migration appears to be leveling off in October after a sharp increase in September. Insecurity is worsening in Mexico’s southern state of Chiapas, where many migrants are blocked or awaiting CBP One appointments.

THE FULL UPDATE:

Read More

Daily Border Links: October 25, 2024

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Developments

At an Arizona rally, Republican candidate Donald Trump said that policies admitting migrants have made the United States “a garbage can for the world.”

Panama’s president, José Raúl Mulino, said that he hopes to identify a third country or countries that would be willing to accept Venezuelan citizens whom Panama would deport after they cross the treacherous Darién Gap migration route. The Homeland Security attaché in the U.S. embassy to Panama told EFE that with U.S. support, air deportations of Venezuelans from the Darién may begin “in the next days, weeks at the latest.” Neither official named any possible third countries.

Panama has run nearly 20 deportation flights since early August, most of them to Colombia and Ecuador. EFE cited a U.S. embassy statement noting that the number of Colombians and Ecuadorians transiting the Darién Gap has fallen by 65 percent and 92 percent, respectively, since the flights began. (Migration from Venezuela, where the government has refused to recognize an apparent opposition victory in July 28 elections, rose 69 percent in the Darién from August to September.)

The South China Morning Post noted a 40 percent drop in border encounters with migrants from China from June to September, according to data reported by Customs and Border Protection (CBP). Beyond the Biden administration’s June asylum restrictions, the article noted that “in July, Ecuador suspended its visa-free program for Chinese travelers.” Ecuador had been the principal point of arrival on the Latin American mainland for Chinese citizens arriving by air, most of whom then traversed the Darién Gap.

The Honduran Congress is considering legislation that would permanently repeal a $240 fine charged to undocumented migrants seeking to transit Honduras, in exchange for permission to remain briefly in the country. Since 2022, Honduras has waived this fee to encourage migrants to register with the government, which allows them to board public buses instead of turning to smugglers. The Congress must renew the waiver periodically; it next expires on December 31.

Analyses and Feature Stories

ProPublica published a deeply reported account from Whitewater, Wisconsin, a town that became a political flashpoint after several hundred Nicaraguan immigrants began to settle there, drawn by nearby food processing facilities in need of low-wage labor.

“By mid-2024, more than 20.3 million forcibly displaced and stateless people were hosted in the Americas,” reads a new “Americas Factsheet” from UNHCR, “including 5.8 million refugees and asylum-seekers, 8.1 million internally displaced persons, and 5.8 million other people in need of international protection.”

By allowing states to carry out their own independent immigration policies, Texas’s SB4 law criminalizing border crossings could “upend immigration enforcement nationwide” if courts uphold the Texan state government’s argument that migrants constitute an “invasion,” Alejandro Serrano wrote at the Texas Tribune.

At Vox, Christian Paz pushed back on poll data showing over half of U.S. respondents favor a “mass deportation” campaign, like Donald Trump has been proposing. Paz pointed out that pollsters’ questions fail to capture the complexity or the real-life consequences of such a campaign.

“Keeping migrants stuck in southern Mexico–and points further south–has been a perpetual U.S. objective,” write three reporters for the Daily Signal covering Mexico’s stepped-up 2024 policy of doing precisely that by busing several thousand migrants per month from the country’s north to southern cities like Villahermosa, Tabasco.

Jenn Budd, whose book Against the Wall recounts a traumatic experience as a former Border Patrol agent, has compiled a database of agents who have been arrested. “This data is an undercount,” Budd wrote at her site.

Border Report published an overview of electoral matchups in House of Representatives districts along the U.S.-Mexico border. Two—one in New Mexico and one in Arizona—are rated as “toss-ups” by the Cook Political Report.

At Inside Climate News, Martha Pskowski covered the dwindling Rio Grande, the river that serves as the border between Texas and Mexico. The river’s bed is completely dry along about 200 miles of west Texas.

On the Right

Daily Border Links: October 24, 2024

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Developments

The federal judiciary’s Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals has upheld a district court’s earlier ruling that Customs and Border Protection’s (CBP) practice of “metering” asylum seekers at official border crossings is illegal. The term refers to stationing officers at the crossings’ borderline to turn back people without U.S. documentation, preventing them from setting foot on U.S. soil and asking for protection, while allowing only a small number of asylum seekers to access ports of entry each day.

The appeals court judges’ 2-1 decision determined, in the written opinion of Judge Michelle Friedland, that “a noncitizen who presents herself to a border official at a port of entry has arrived in the United States… whether she is standing just at the edge of the port of entry or somewhere within it.”

U.S. law states that a person physically present in the United States has the right to ask for asylum if they fear their life or freedom would be in danger upon return to their country. “You are not breaking the law by seeking asylum at a port of entry,” the Trump administration’s Homeland Security secretary, Kirstjen Nielsen, tweeted in June 2018, at the height of that year’s family separations crisis. “Metering,” however, has strictly limited asylum seekers’ ability to access ports of entry.

The decision striking down “metering” caps a seven-year legal battle led by the San Diego and Tijuana-based Al Otro Lado, along with the Center for Gender and Refugee Studies, the American Immigration Council, the Center for Constitutional Rights, and Democracy Forward, along with the law firms Mayer Brown and Vinson and Elkins.

CBP officially rescinded the metering policy in 2021. The Ninth Circuit’s October 23 decision does not appear to affect the Biden administration’s current policy of turning away nearly all asylum seekers who show up to ports of entry without having secured one of 1,450 daily appointments made using the CBP One smartphone app. A May 2024 Human Rights Watch report called this “digital metering.” Organizations involved in the “metering” case have filed a new lawsuit challenging turnbacks of asylum seekers without CBP One appointments.

Border Report and the Arizona Daily Star covered the fiscal year 2024 migration and border enforcement statistics that CBP published on October 22. Border Report noted that the past few months’ drop in Border Patrol migrant apprehensions could see some reversals amid rising migration in Panama’s Darién Gap region and reports of migrant “caravans” forming in Chiapas, Mexico’s southernmost state. The Daily Star noted that Border Patrol’s Tucson, Arizona sector saw the most migration for much of the year, though numbers have dropped sharply along with the Biden administration’s June asylum restrictions, and that fentanyl seizures declined in fiscal 2024 for the first time since the drug began appearing in the mid-2010s.

A “caravan” numbering perhaps 700 migrants, which departed Mexico’s far south at the beginning of the month, is walking in the southern state of Oaxaca, adjacent to the country’s southern border state of Chiapas. A Venezuelan man told the daily Milenio he worries that the possibility of securing CBP One appointments will end if Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump wins the November 5 U.S. election.

Mexican authorities reported rescuing nine migrants from India, Nepal, and Bangladesh whom a criminal group had kidnapped for ransom in the southern border zone city of Tapachula, Chiapas. They reported no arrests of kidnappers.

Tapachula now leads all Mexican cities in perceptions of citizen insecurity, according to a survey from the Mexican government’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI). Ninety-two percent of Tapachula residents told surveyors that they fear crime. Chiapas, a border state through which large numbers of drugs and people are smuggled and trafficked, has experienced a sharp rise in organized crime violence over the past year.

The city’s mayor told EFE that Tapachula “concentrates 60 percent of the migrants in Mexico”; this estimate may be high, but the number of migrants lacking Mexican documentation and forced to wait there is very large.

A CBP officer faces aggravated assault charges after he fired his weapon 11 times while off duty in an apparent road rage incident on a highway on-ramp in El Paso, Border Report reported.

Bloomberg Law reported on Donald Trump’s intent to revoke Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for many migrants in the United States whom the program currently protects from deportation.

Peru’s government has added new restrictions on the approximately 1.54 million Venezuelan citizens residing in the country. These include new documentation requirements for employment and controls on financial remittances. The measures could reduce the number of Venezuelans who consider themselves “firmly settled” in the South American nation, potentially leading some to migrate elsewhere, including to the United States.

Analyses and Feature Stories

At his Substack newsletter, the Cato Institute’s Alex Nowrasteh published a detailed rebuttal of claims that migrants in the United States are committing crimes at a greater rate than native-born U.S. citizens. Arrest and conviction data indicate otherwise.

The UN Refugee Agency published its annual report for Mexico operations in 2023. Among findings are that nearly 400 mostly charity-run migrant shelters operate in the country, and that over 600 companies have committed to employing refugees inside Mexico.

Iowa Public Radio, reporting from Iowa; Gothamist, reporting from Long Island, New York; and Politico, reporting from Rocky Mount, North Carolina, illustrated how the border security and migration debate is affecting congressional campaigns, particularly in swing districts, far from the U.S.-Mexico border.

Reporting from the border town of Douglas, Arizona, Agénce France Presse echoed residents’ exasperation with politicians from elsewhere falsely portraying border communities as dangerous places in crisis.

On the Right

October 23 WOLA Border Update Video

This one is about a certain presidential candidate’s proposal for “Mass Deportation.”

That would require a domestic use of the US military that obliterates historic democratic norms. If a Latin American nation were to do similar, we’d call it a danger to civil-military relations and evidence of democratic backsliding.

Daily Border Links: October 23, 2024

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Developments

Customs and Border Protection (CBP) released data about migration and enforcement at the U.S.-Mexico border during September, which was also the final month of the U.S. government’s 2024 fiscal year. Among key findings:

  • Border Patrol apprehensions of migrants between ports of entry dropped 25 percent from 2023 to 2024 (from 2,045,838 to 1,530,523).
  • Migrants who entered CBP custody at ports of entry, most with CBP One appointments, increased 41 percent from 2023 to 2024 (429,831 to 604,482). CBP had increased appointments to their current level of 1,450 per day in June 2023, near the end of the 2023 fiscal year.
  • Combining Border Patrol and port-of-entry encounters, the nationalities most frequently encountered at the border in 2024 were Mexico (-9% from 2023), Venezuela (-2%), Guatemala (-7%), Cuba (+6%), Honduras (-34%), Colombia (-20%), Ecuador (+5%), Haiti (+16%), El Salvador (-12%), and China (+57%)
  • 38 percent of migrants encountered in 2024 were members of family units, and another 5 percent were unaccompanied children. This is similar to 2023 (33 percent and 6 percent, respectively).
  • In September, Border Patrol apprehended 53,858 people between ports of entry. That is similar to July and August, slightly less than September 2020 when Donald Trump was president during the pandemic, and 78 percent less than the record-setting month of December 2023. The Biden administration’s June asylum restrictions and a crackdown in Mexico continue to suppress migration levels.
  • “Overall, southwest border deaths were down 30% comparing the fourth quarter of last fiscal year to this fiscal year,” CBP reported, without offering aggregate numbers.
  • Seizures of fentanyl fell for the first time since the drug began appearing. CBP seized 21,148 pounds of the potent opioid in 2024, down from 26,718 pounds in 2023 (-26%). Similar to past years, 86 percent of fentanyl seizures occurred at border ports of entry. Of the remaining 14 percent seized by Border Patrol, 4 percent was seized from vehicles at the agency’s interior checkpoints.
  • Seizures of cocaine increased 10 percent and methamphetamine increased 30 percent. Heroin fell 21 percent and marijuana 8 percent.
  • Cbp Releases September 2024 Monthly Update (U.S. Customs and Border Protection, October 22, 2024).
  • Rafael Bernal, September Border Patrol Encounters Lowest Since the Pandemic (The Hill, October 22, 2024).
  • Dan Gooding, Illegal Border Crossings Keep Falling as Election Day Grows Closer (Newsweek, October 22, 2024).
  • Elliot Spagat, Border Arrests Fall in September in Last Monthly Gauge Before Us Elections (Associated Press, Associated Press, October 22, 2024).

“We’ve reached almost 20 flights in 3 months, trying to discourage people from” migration through the Darién Gap region, Panama’s president, José Raúl Mulino, told reporters during a visit to France. Mulino was referring to stepped-up deportation flights being carried out with U.S. support. As a result, the Panamanian president added, migration through the Darién “has gone down (by around 20% so far this year compared to 2023), but my concern is the worsening of the crisis in Venezuela,” EFE reported.

NBC News obtained Department of Homeland Security (DHS) data indicating that the Department has identified about 600 people in the United States with possible ties to the Tren de Aragua, a Venezuelan criminal organization. Of those, about 100 are considered “confirmed members of the gang.” As about 600,000 citizens of Venezuela have been released into the United States in the 2020s, the DHS list covers perhaps 0.1 percent of that population.

Analyses and Feature Stories

A week from today (Wednesday, October 30, 5:00 Eastern), join WOLA, Alliance San Diego, the Eagle Pass Border Coalition, Hope Border Institute, and Human Rights Watch for an online discussion of excessive use of force by Texas state National Guard and police personnel on the borderline.

The Migration Policy Institute published a study of migration trends at the border, coinciding with CBP’s release of September and fiscal 2024 data. The analysis finds that the drop in migration results from the Biden administration’s combination of asylum curbs, encouragement of other countries’ enforcement, and expansion of lawful migration pathways. It concludes that the migration reduction’s long-term persistence is impossible to predict given several factors, many beyond the Biden administration’s control.

A group of investigative journalism outlets published a report about “Border 911,” a non-profit led by Tom Homan, who served as acting Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) Director during the Trump administration. The report alleges that Homan’s group, linked to “dark money” efforts and border security contracting, uses disinformation about immigration, particularly the notion that migrants and asylum seekers constitute an “invasion,” to build political support for far-right policies and to undermine electoral processes.

If Donald Trump is elected, his promised “mass deportation” campaign would face fewer obstacles than during his first term, argued a USA Today analysis. It reported a poll finding 45 percent of respondents supporting mass deportation, 49 percent against.

The Washington Examiner noted that Trump’s deportation plan, which the campaign has not described in detail, would face obstacles including its scale, ICE capacity, legal challenges, political backlash, and economic impacts.

Among trends in the Mixed Migration Center’s latest quarterly report on Latin America highlights reduced migrant encounters at the U.S.-Mexico border, reduced Darién Gap migration, and a drop in asylum cases in Mexico. (Last week, Panama released data showing a September increase in Darién Gap migration, led by Venezuelan citizens, though migration remains below levels measured during the first half of 2024.)

On the Right

Daily Border Links: October 22, 2024

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Developments

In a U.S.-assisted operation, Colombian police and judicial authorities arrested another 17 people, one of them Nicaraguan, for charging migrants $200 to $450 each to travel from Colombia’s Caribbean island department of San Andrés to Nicaragua by boat.

Four of the seventeen—including two local government officials from San Andrés—stand accused of charging migrants from Asia, particularly Vietnam, $2,000 to $2,500 each to fly from Colombia’s border with Ecuador to Nicaragua via San Andrés.

The San Andrés to Nicaragua route allows migrants to avoid the Darién Gap.

Border Report reported on an October 20 shootout between members of Mexico’s National Guard and members of a criminal group on a highway that follows Mexico’s side of the border between El Paso and Tornillo, Texas. The road has recently been upgraded, noted Border Report’s Julián Resendiz, but “some truckers have expressed misgivings about using the highway due to well-documented drug cartel activity in the area known as El Valle de Juarez (Valley of Juarez).”

A Breitbart report noted increased arrivals of asylum seekers turning themselves in to Border Patrol in mid-Texas’s Del Rio Sector. A Customs and Border Protection (CBP) source told Breitbart‘s Randy Clark, a former Border Patrol agent, that “nearly 160” unaccompanied children from Central and South American nations crossed into Eagle Pass within the past week.

Analyses and Feature Stories

In the first article of a pre-election series, ProPublica published a detailed overview of how migration at the U.S.-Mexico border has shifted during the past few years, noting changes in nationalities and demographics and effects on the immigration court system, receiving communities, the U.S. labor market, and electoral politics. The investigation found that the newly arrived migrants have been “concentrated in relatively few places around the country.”

In response to NBC News revelation that 30 percent of Border Patrol’s Remote Video Surveillance System (RVSS) cameras are broken, Dave Maass of the Electronic Frontier Foundation argued that border surveillance technology is “political theater” and “a wasteful endeavor that is ill-equipped to respond to an ill-defined problem.”

NPR’s Adrian Florido reported from Florida about how some members of the state’s Venezuelan-American community are agreeing with Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump’s evidence-free demonization of recent Venezuelan migrants as “criminals” and voicing support for their deportation. Some of this attitude appears related to class differences between earlier migrants and newer arrivals, who tend to be poorer and often darker-skinned.

A column at Jacobin criticized NBC’s decision to delay screening Separated, the new Errol Morris documentary about the Trump administration’s family separation policy, until after the U.S. election.

“As the Trump campaign’s rhetorical demonization of immigrants escalates, it is reasonable to wonder why Democrats and liberals around the world have decided to effectively abandon the issue to their adversaries,” reads a column at Newsweek from David Faris of Roosevelt University.

WOLA Podcast: Mexico’s Constitutional Reforms: a Setback for Checks and Balances

Mexico has changed its constitution to allow direct election of judges, placement of a militarized National Guard under direct Army control, and other changes. Stephanie Brewer of WOLA and Lisa Sánchez of México Unido contra la Delincuencia explain what this means, in a new WOLA podcast episode.

Here’s the text from WOLA’s podcast landing page:

In September 2024, Mexico’s legislature quickly approved a series of constitutional reforms at the behest of outgoing president Andrés Manuel López Obrador. The revisions, among other things, fundamentally change the nature of the country’s judiciary and fundamentally and permanently change the role of the armed forces in public security.

Under the overhaul of Mexico’s judiciary, citizens will now directly elect all judges, increasing the likelihood of eroding the judicial branch’s independence. That, in turn, could complicate accountability for organized crime activity, corruption, and human rights abuses.

Another reform places the National Guard, a recently created internal security force whose members are mostly former soldiers, directly within the Defense Ministry. This further cements significant increases in military participation in internal security, immigration control, public works, and the economy during the López Obrador administration.

These changes pose likely setbacks to the struggle to hold people and institutions accountable for human rights abuse and corruption, and they threaten to weaken the quality of Mexico’s democracy.

In this episode, WOLA’s director for Mexico, Stephanie Brewer, and Lisa Sanchez, the director of México Unido Contra la Delincuencia (MUCD), explain the constitutional reforms and their likely consequences.

“This particular constitutional reform fully militarized public security at the federal level by turning the National Guard into a fourth armed force,” said Sánchez. “What we did was to fully and permanently militarize public security at the federal level in Mexico for good.”

While these reforms are not a “fatal blow” for Mexico’s democracy, Brewer pointed out, they create even more adverse conditions for “victims, survivors, family members, civil society, NGOs, and others” working for rights and justice in the country. “They really need our attention, and our support from the international community. We need to be listening to their voices.”

Download this podcast episode’s .mp3 file here. Listen to WOLA’s Latin America Today podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, iHeartRadio, or wherever you subscribe to podcasts. The main feed is here.

Daily Border Links: October 21, 2024

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Developments

Two San Diego hospitals, Scripps Mercy Hospital and UC San Diego Medical Center, report 993 “severe falls” from the border wall so far this year (Scripps through August, UCSD through September). That is up 58 percent over falls recorded in all of 2023, the San Diego Union-Tribune reported. Pedro Rios of the American Friends Service Committee hypothesized that Mexico’s placement of troops in an area east of the city with little or no fencing might be leading more migrants, including those seeking to turn themselves in to authorities, to attempt to scale the wall.

A Mother Jones investigation of the U.S. government’s search-and-rescue system for preventing the deaths of migrants in distress found “a scattershot emergency response system with little accountability, in which responsibility for saving migrants’ lives is divided among Border Patrol agents whose primary duty is law enforcement, not search and rescue; overtaxed county search and rescue teams; and unpaid volunteers from humanitarian groups.”

Another in a series of “caravans,” combining migrants from many nationalities, departed Mexico’s southern border-zone city of Tapachula, Chiapas on Sunday. Some participants in the large group said that they felt a need to get to U.S. soil before a transfer of power in the United States, as Republican candidate Donald Trump, who is tied in polls, has pledged to eliminate the use of the CBP One smartphone app and other legal migration pathways.

Mexico’s migration agency (National Migration Institute, INM) sought to discourage the movement by offering bus rides from Tapachula to Chiapas’s capital, Tuxtla Gutiérrez, about 150 miles away. “They told us that they are going to give us a 10-day permit there so that we can wait for a CBP One appointment and they will take us to Tuxtla Gutiérrez,” a Honduran man told EFE.

El Paso, Texas municipal officials told Border Report that they are monitoring the caravans moving through Mexico’s far south, although “we don’t know what part of the border they’re going.”

The Mexican government’s secretaries of interior, foreign affairs, army, and navy met on October 18 “to review the current situation of irregular migration crossing the country, and the repatriation of Mexicans,” Milenio reported.

Mexican civil society organizations making up the “Central Border Monitoring Group” denounced that Mexico City authorities have been arranging to bus migrants to states further north, like Zacatecas and San Luis Potosí, “without clear information or the delivery of regular transit documents.”

NPR reported on a ballot measure in Arizona, Proposition 314, that—like the highly controversial SB4 in Texas—would make it a violation of state law to cross the U.S.-Mexico border without authorization. Advocates worry that, if the measure passes, local police may profile people they suspect of having crossed illegally, demanding that they “show their papers” anywhere in the state.

Home building firms told NBC News that presidential candidate Donald Trump’s plans for a “mass deportation” campaign would decimate their labor force and cripple their industry. “You’d lose so many people that you couldn’t put a crew together to frame a house,” said the CEO of a Texas-based subcontracting firm.

Municipal police in Tijuana are offering to have agents inspect northbound vehicles in order to shorten border crossing times at the busy San Ysidro port of entry, Border Report reported.

Analyses and Feature Stories

A New York Times analysis contended that Donald Trump is “doubling down” on the border and immigration as the issue that can win the election for him, despite poll data showing voters more concerned about economic issues.

Amid Democrats’ rightward pivot on border and immigration issues during the 2024 election cycle, Vox reporter Nicole Narea wrote that if elected, Kamala Harris would probably adopt a “two-pronged” approach, keeping current curbs on asylum and boosting border security while also maintaining alternative legal pathways for migrants.

“The Mexican government reported 200,289 Venezuelans ‘in an irregular migratory situation’ in the first half of 2024,” EFE reported. That is 215 percent more than during the first half of 2023. According to this estimate, Venezuela is the number-one nationality of undocumented migrants in Mexico, making up over a quarter of the total.

“Half of the fentanyl coming into the U.S. is seized at the Mariposa Port of Entry” in Nogales, Arizona, CBP’s top official, Troy Miller, told the Arizona Republic. The port, west of downtown with much cargo traffic, is now able to scan about 50 percent of cargo, Miller added.

Increasing organized crime violence in Mexico’s southern state of Tabasco may be related to the Mexican government’s mass busing of migrants to the state’s capital, Villahermosa, mainly from the U.S. border region, according to an InSight Crime analysis. An already existing conflict between organized crime factions in the state is being exacerbated by “large sums” that can be gained “from extorting vulnerable migrants” being bused there at a rate of about 10,000 people per month.

On the Right

Weekly Migrant Apprehensions Remain Flat

Border Patrol Weekly Migrant Apprehensions

	San Diego (California) Sector
April 24-30	10023
May 1-7	8303
May 8-14	8016
May 15-21	6157
May 22-28	6777
May 29-Jun 4	8488
June 5-11	7693
June 12-18	
June 19-22	
June 23-29	3696
Jun 30 - Jul 6	3958
July 7-13	
July 14-20	3552
July 21-27	3089
Jul 28 - Aug 3	3174
August 4-10	3389
August 11-17	3237
August 18-24	3063
August 25-31	3557
Sep 1-7	4000
September 8-14	3169
September 15-21	3292
September 22-28	2294
Sep 29 - Oct 5	2803
October 6-12	3016

	Tucson (Arizona) Sector
April 5-11	6700
April 12-18	7500
April 17-23	7600
Apr 26 - May 2	7900
May 3-9	7300
May 10-16	6700
May 18-24	7400
May 25-31	7800
June 1-6	7500
June 7-13	6900
June 14-20	4900
June 21-27	3700
Jun 28 - Jul 4	2900
July 5-11	2700
July 12-18	2600
July 19-25	2400
Jul 26 - Aug 1	2800
August 2-8	2400
August 9-15	2600
August 16-22	2500
August 23-29	2900
Aug 30 - Sep 5	2700
Sep 6-12	2500
September 13-19	2500
September 20-26	2400
Sep 27-Oct 3	2800
October 4-10	2400
October 11-17	2400

Of the 9 U.S.-Mexico Border Patrol sectors, the chiefs of 2 of the 3 busiest, San Diego and Tucson, post weekly updates to Twitter showing apprehensions of migrants.

In both, there has been little up-or-down change since late June, after the Biden administration’s asylum restrictions began.

Latin America-Related Events in Washington and Online This Week

(Events that I know of, anyway. All times are U.S. Eastern.)

Monday, October 21

  • 3:30-5:00 at the U.S. Institute of Peace: Searching for Colombia’s Missing Persons (RSVP required).
  • 4:00-5:30 at wilsoncenter.org: The Sandinista Revolution: A Global Latin American History (RSVP required).

Tuesday, October 22

Wednesday, October 23

  • 11:00-12:00 at csis.org: Assessing the Impact of Mano Dura Policies on Democracy in Latin America (RSVP required).

Thursday, October 24

  • 2:00-3:30 at thedialogue.org: The Power of Technology and Support and Care Systems as a Basis for Inclusive Education (RSVP required).

Friday, October 25

  • 1:00-2:00 at University of Oklahoma Zoom: Central American Perspectives and Implications of the U.S. Elections (RSVP required).
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