Adam Isacson

Defense, security, borders, migration, and human rights in Latin America and the United States. May not reflect my employer’s consensus view.

Archives

November 2018

Some articles I found interesting this morning

(Even more here)

November 30, 2018

Western Hemisphere Regional

Argentina

  • Andres Schipani, g20 and the Painful Price of Argentina’s Tumultuous Past (The Financial Times (UK), November 30, 2018).

    We may be a G20 economy, but with interest rates at more than 60 per cent, the adage that there are four kinds of economies — developed, under-developed, Japan and Argentina — still applies

Brazil

Colombia

  • Francisco De Roux, El Desafio de la Verdad (Revista Arcadia (Colombia), November 30, 2018).

    Hay miedo. Miedo a las preguntas y miedo a las respuestas que reclaman millones de adoloridos. Miedo a las sorpresas que puedan aparecer en la búsqueda. Susto de lo que ha estado oculto

  • Juan Camilo Pedraza, Estremecedores Testimonios en Arranque de la Comision de la Verdad (El Tiempo (Colombia), November 30, 2018).

    Intervinieron distintos sectores y protagonistas del conflicto, víctimas y victimarios, quienes depositaron sus esperanzas de esclarecimiento de lo sucedido en la guerra en los 11 comisionados que componen la Comisión

Cuba

El Salvador

Brazil, Haiti

Honduras

Mexico

  • Jonathan Blitzer, Tijuana’s Migrants Are Running Their Own Asylum Process (The New Yorker, November 30, 2018).

    The men managing the ledger weren’t government officials, or even immigration lawyers. They were fellow asylum seekers who had come with their own documents several weeks before

  • Sandra Dibble, Hundreds of Central American Caravan Members Seek Work in Mexico (The San Diego Union-Tribune, November 30, 2018).

    The job fair opened Nov. 19 in response to the arrival of caravan members. Staffers said interest has spiked following last Sunday’s march to the border by some members of the caravan who rushed the border

  • Duncan Wood, What We Learned From the Amlo Transition (Wilson Center, Americas Quarterly, November 30, 2018).

    AMLO’s control of the apparatus of the federal and state levels of government give him the coercive power he craves, but he has demonstrated his desire to rule with at least the appearance of consent from the Mexican people

Links from the Past Month about “Soldiers as Police” in Latin America

El Salvador

Guatemala

Mexico

  • Claudio Lomnitz, ¿el Ejercito Es Pueblo en Armas? (La Jornada (Mexico), November 21, 2018).

    Andrés Manuel López Obrador ha dicho que como el Ejército es pueblo armado, nunca tirará contra del pueblo. Cabe preguntar entonces: ¿contra quién disparará?

  • Alejandro Hope, No Maten a la Policia Federal (El Universal (Mexico), November 19, 2018).

    Hay tareas que hoy realiza la PF que sería demencial trasladar a un cuerpo militar. Por ejemplo, retirar bloqueos en carreteras. ¿Quiere el gobierno de AMLO enviar a soldados y marinos contra manifestantes?

  • Ricardo Ravelo, ¿y las Finanzas del Crimen? (SinEmbargo (Mexico), November 16, 2018).

    En realidad las policías, en su mayoría, están “cartelizadas”, es decir, al servicio de los grupos criminales

  • Alejandro Hope, Un Plan Sin Razones para la Tranquilidad y el Optimismo (El Universal (Mexico), November 15, 2018).

    El plan apuesta por una salida abiertamente militar a los dilemas de seguridad pública. Se plantea la creación de un cuerpo militar (la Guardia Nacional), ubicado administrativamente en la SEDENA, para atender de manera permanente asuntos de policía

U.S.-Mexico Border

Some articles I found interesting this morning

Paul Ratje/AFP/Getty Images photo at Vox. Caption: “Some bridges, like this one in El Paso, have turned into temporary encampments for waiting asylum seekers.”

(Even more here)

November 29, 2018

Argentina

Brazil

  • Ernesto Londono, Lisa Friedman, Brazil Backs Out of Hosting 2019 Climate Change Meeting (The New York Times, November 29, 2018).

    It comes about a month before the inauguration of president-elect Jair Bolsonaro, who has vowed to empower commercial ventures in the Amazon and other Brazilian biomes while weakening enforcement

Brazil, Western Hemisphere Regional

Central America Regional, Mexico

  • Christopher Sherman, E. Eduardo Castillo, Mexico Accepts Housing Migrants, Seeks Us Development Aid (Associated Press, The Washington Post, November 29, 2018).

    President-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s government signaled Tuesday that it would be willing to house the migrants on Mexican soil while they apply for asylum

Colombia

Mexico

Venezuela

  • Scott Smith, Venezuela’s Next Generation of Opposition Plays a Long Game (Associated Press **, November 29, 2018).

    Many of the beleaguered opposition figures remaining in the country see their best hopes in capitalizing on widespread discontent with Maduro’s rule playing out in rough neighborhoods long considered his strongholds

Western Hemisphere Regional

The week ahead: In Bogotá, briefly

I flew down to Bogotá yesterday, arriving quite late last night. I’m here for a closed-door conference on post-conflict “stabilization” hosted by the UN Resident Coordinator’s office. I’m flying back overnight Tuesday, after some meetings with government officials.

Of course, I haven’t finished preparing my presentation yet—but I’ve got most of today free, so that shouldn’t be a problem. With sufficient time, I’d like to post a few things here too, and simply catch up on what’s happening in the region: I sort of lost the thread over the Thanksgiving holiday.

I’ll be back in Washington Wednesday afternoon. Then, the following Tuesday, I’ll be flying back to Bogotá for another conference, at the Universidad del Rosario, about Colombia’s security sector. It’s sort of like commuting.

The day ahead: November 21, 2018

I should be reachable much of the day. (How to contact me)

It’s the day before Thanksgiving, one of the principal holidays of the year in the United States. We’re celebrating with family here in the Washington area, so I’m not going anywhere today, the busiest travel day of the year.

I’ll be in the office much of the day, working on updates about Colombia peace implementation and about the upcoming border wall debate. I may take off early to buy some ingredients for tomorrow’s feast, and then work at home.

Some articles I found interesting this morning

(Even more here)

November 20, 2018

Western Hemisphere Regional

  • Robert Burns, Pentagon: Troops at U.S. Border to Cost About $210 Million (Associated Press, Time, November 20, 2018).

    The total includes $72 million for approximately 5,900 active-duty troops providing support to Customs and Border Protection, plus $138 million so far for 2,100 National Guard troops who have been performing a separate border mission since April

  • Dara Lind, Judge Stops Trump From Enforcing Asylum Ban (Vox, November 20, 2018).

    The most surprising thing about Judge Tigar’s ruling is that it took more than a week after the asylum ban went into effect for him to issue it

Brazil

Central America Regional, Mexico

  • Julia Ainsley, Feds Have Paid Undercover Informants in Migrant Caravan (NBC News, November 20, 2018).

    The Department of Homeland Security is gathering intelligence from paid undercover informants inside the migrant caravan that is now reaching the California-Mexico border as well as monitoring the text messages of migrants

Colombia, Cuba

Colombia, Venezuela

Colombia, Western Hemisphere Regional

Cuba

Mexico

Venezuela

The day ahead: November 20, 2018

I’ll be most reachable in the afternoon. (How to contact me)

I’m meeting some grad students with a research project this morning, and having lunch with a professor at a local university whom I haven’t seen in a while. Otherwise, will be in the office, writing a Colombia update and an update about where things stand with the border wall and a possible government shutdown. As the Thanksgiving holiday approaches, things are getting quieter around here almost by the hour.

Some articles I found interesting this morning

Ezequiel Flores photo at Proceso (Mexico). Caption: “Militares tratan de repeler la agresión registrada contra el retorno de desplazados en la sierra.”

(Even more here)

November 19, 2018

Western Hemisphere Regional

  • Wesley Morgan, Troops at U.S.-Mexican Border to Start Coming Home (Animal Politico (Mexico), November 19, 2018).

    Democrats and Republicans have criticized the deployment as a ploy by the president to use active-duty military forces as a prop to try to stem Republican losses in this month’s midterm elections

Brazil

Brazil, Venezuela, Western Hemisphere Regional

  • Brasil Organiza Ejercicio Militar Aereo y Venezuela Participa Como Observador (EFE, El Estimulo (Venezuela), November 19, 2018).

    Un centenar de aeronaves de siete países, entre los cuales Chile, Perú, Uruguay, EE.UU. y Francia, dieron inicio el 18 de noviembre en la ciudad brasileña de Natal al Ejercicio Cruzeiro do Sul (Cruzex 2018), el mayor ejercicio militar aéreo ya organizado por Brasil

Central America Regional, Mexico

Chile

Colombia

  • Laura Soto, Viaje a las Entranas de la Coca en el Cauca (La Silla Vacia (Colombia), November 19, 2018).

    Desde que se fueron las Farc los que quedaron controlando el negocio son los campesinos que tienen una suerte de Estado paralelo

  • Juan Manuel Florez Arias, Comfort, el Colosal Que Sano el Uraba Antioqueno (El Colombiano (Medellin Colombia), November 19, 2018).

    En Urabá el barco Usn Comfort brinda atención médica a los habitantes de esta región antioqueña. El gigante, pintado de blanco y con cruces rojas, arribará a Riohacha a prestar sus servicios

El Salvador

Guatemala, Nicaragua

  • Elsa Cabria, Huida Silenciosa al Barrio Nica de Guatemala (Plaza Publica (Guatemala), November 19, 2018).

    La represión en el país que preside Daniel Ortega reconfigura un área roja del centro de Ciudad de Guatemala con negocios del país vecino

Mexico

  • Falko Ernst, The Life and Death of a Mexican Hitman (International Crisis Group, November 19, 2018).

    Child soldiers like him are recruited into a system whose roots are sunk deep in Mexico’s inequalities. Then they are often trained to become ruthless killers, going from victims to victimisers

  • Alejandro Hope, No Maten a la Policia Federal (El Universal (Mexico), November 19, 2018).

    Hay tareas que hoy realiza la PF que sería demencial trasladar a un cuerpo militar. Por ejemplo, retirar bloqueos en carreteras. ¿Quiere el gobierno de AMLO enviar a soldados y marinos contra manifestantes?

Peru

Peru, Uruguay

  • Franklin Briceno, Peru Says Ex-President Has Sought Asylum in Uruguay (Associated Press **, November 19, 2018).

    Late Saturday, a judge in Lima granted prosecutors’ request that Garcia be banned from leaving Peru for 18 months as investigators probe allegations he received illegal payment from Brazilian construction giant Odebrecht

Venezuela

The day ahead: November 19, 2018

I’ll be reachable in the afternoon. (How to contact me)

It’s the beginning of a week that will be truncated by the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday and Friday. On Saturday, I fly down to Bogotá for a conference.

Today, I’ve got the weekly staff meeting in the morning. After that I hope to record a podcast with other staff who are in town. Then I’m having lunch with the interns. In the afternoon I want to do a basic overview of what’s in border-security budget legislation, especially money for Trump’s wall, as we head for a possible government shutdown showdown on December 7. I’ll be in the office extra-late today due to an evening childcare pickup.

Corruption in Latin America: Links from the past month

Brazil

Central America Regional

  • Victoria Sanford, ‘Criminals?’ Hardly. That’s Who the Caravan Flees. (The New York Times, November 9, 2018).

    Cruelty won’t solve the current refugee crisis. Neither will buddying up with authoritarian leaders in Central America. Instead, those two strategies only deepen the crisis

Colombia

  • Cecilia Orozco Tascón, El “Testamento” del Testigo Pizano en Caso Odebrecht (El Espectador (Colombia), November 14, 2018).

    Hoy creo que es mi deber ético transcribir —aunque parcialmente— las reflexiones que, a modo de testamento, Jorge Enrique Pizano dejó en mi teléfono, probablemente sabiendo que yo las publicaría. Estas son algunas

  • Joshua Goodman, New Allegations That Colombia Prosecutor Covered Up Bribes (Associated Press, The Washington Post, November 14, 2018).

    U.S. Ambassador Kevin Whitaker in September called Colombia’s handling of the Odebrecht case “the best in the world, by far” and attributed its success to the dedication of Martinez’s office

  • Los Secretos del Escandalo de las Chuzadas (Semana (Colombia), November 6, 2018).

    SEMANA tuvo acceso a más de 200 folios con las declaraciones de dos de los principales protagonistas del tema. Su contenido revela la impresionante dimensión de esta red de espionaje ilegal

  • Adriana Puentes, Julian Amorocho Becerra, 2.488 Policias Investigados en el Pais ¿Que Delitos Cometen? (El Colombiano (Medellin Colombia), November 6, 2018).

    En los últimos dos años, de agosto de 2016 a la fecha, la Fiscalía General de la Nación involucró a 2.488 miembros de la Policía en investigaciones criminales

Ecuador

  • Ministerio de Defensa Intenta Depuracion en Fuerzas Armadas a Traves de Leyes (El Universo (Ecuador), November 14, 2018).

    El ministro de Defensa Oswaldo Jarrín anunció el envío de nuevas leyes a la Asamblea Nacional para volver más estrictos los requisitos de ingreso a las Fuerzas Armadas, dados los últimos acontecimientos de militares vinculados a narcotráfico y tráfico de municiones

Guatemala

  • La Crisis Politica y el Retroceso Democratico (Plaza Publica (Guatemala), November 9, 2018).

    El análisis persigue identificar algunas relaciones causales de la crisis democrática que tiene lugar en Guatemala y sus implicaciones en las aspiraciones de bienestar humano

Honduras

Mexico

  • Ricardo Ravelo, ¿y las Finanzas del Crimen? (SinEmbargo (Mexico), November 16, 2018).

    En realidad las policías, en su mayoría, están “cartelizadas”, es decir, al servicio de los grupos criminales

Peru

Five links from the past week

El Salvador

There are an estimated 60,000 gang members in El Salvador. Benjamin knew many who wanted to leave, but they were afraid. He wanted to show them they could

Brazil

The Times traveled hundreds of miles into the Brazilian Amazon, staying with a tribe in the Munduruku Indigenous Territory as it struggled with the shrinking rain forest

Cuba

After the State Department’s presence was diminished, what remained of the C.I.A. station was closed down, on Pompeo’s orders

Mexico

  • Alejandra Guillen, Mago Torres, Marcela Turati, El Pais de las 2 Mil Fosas (A Donde Van los Desaparecidos (Mexico), November 12, 2018).

En México 37 mil 485 personas están reportadas como desaparecidas entre diciembre de 2006 y octubre pasado, según los registros oficiales. Se desconoce cuántas de ellas están en fosas

Nicaragua

Many of those arrested will be tried as terrorists, thanks to a law passed by the Ortega-controlled Congress in July that expanded the definition of terrorism to include a broad range of crimes

Some articles I found interesting this morning

(Even more here)

November 16, 2018

Central America Regional, Mexico

– Karla Zabludovsky, Mexicans Are Joining WhatsApp And Facebook Groups To Talk About How Much They Hate The Caravan (BuzzFeed, November 16, 2018).

Anti-immigrant sentiment is spreading through social media and spilling onto the streets of Tijuana as the caravan makes its final approach to the border

– Alberto Pradilla, El Ultimo Aventon Hasta Tijuana (Plaza Publica (Guatemala), November 16, 2018).

Los estados de Jalisco, Nayarit, Sinaloa y Sonora establecen un puente de autobuses hasta Tijuana. La gran paradoja es que los que menos quieren a la caravana de los hambrientos son los que más han facilitado su avance

Colombia

– Cartagena del Chaira: Del Flagelo de la Coca a la Deforestacion (El Tiempo (Colombia), November 16, 2018).

“Tras dejar los cultivos ilícitos, de forma voluntaria, la ganadería se nos convirtió en la forma más rápida para conseguir recursos porque nos estábamos muriendo de hambre”

– Juanita Velez, Duque Mantiene la Paz Pero Le Quita Lo Transformadora (La Silla Vacia (Colombia), November 16, 2018).

La no es la hoja de ruta del futuro del país sino una política más para garantizar que los desmovilizados no retomen las armas. Es decir, una paz chiquita

– Tensiones en el Catatumbo Tras Ingreso de la Fuerza de Despliegue Rapido (Verdad Abierta (Colombia), November 16, 2018).

Esa unidad militar, activada el pasado 28 de octubre en Ocaña por el presidente de la República, Iván Duque, está conformada por cuatro batallones: tres de despliegue rápido y uno de acción directa y reconocimiento

El Salvador

– Danielle Mackey, What Happens When a Barrio 18 Soldier Tries to Leave the Gang (The Intercept, November 16, 2018).

There are an estimated 60,000 gang members in El Salvador. Benjamin knew many who wanted to leave, but they were afraid. He wanted to show them they could

Mexico

– Luis Gomez, Migrants Are Scaling U.S.-Mexico Fence. Will They Be Arrested? (The San Diego Union-Tribune, November 16, 2018).

Francisco told The San Diego Union-Tribune that agents plan to make arrests of anyone crossing illegally only when they’ve reached far enough into the U.S. side of the border

– Ricardo Ravelo, ¿y las Finanzas del Crimen? (SinEmbargo (Mexico), November 16, 2018).

En realidad las policías, en su mayoría, están “cartelizadas”, es decir, al servicio de los grupos criminales

– Jenaro Villamil, Por Unanimidad, el Senado Ratifica los Ascensos de 187 Militares, Incluido el General del Caso Tlatlaya (Proceso (Mexico), November 16, 2018).

Por unanimidad de todas las bancadas, con 108 votos a favor, el Senado de la República ratificó hoy el ascenso de 187 militares propuestos por el Ejecutivo federal, incluido al general José Luis Sánchez León

– Malcolm Beith, ‘el Chapo’ Could Be the Key to Dismantling Drug Financial Networks (The Washington Post, November 16, 2018).

López Obrador should work to beef up the asset forfeiture process and share financial information with the Treasury Department and U.S. investigators

– Joshua Partlow, Sarah Kinosian, At the U.S. Border, Migrant Caravan Will Slow to a Crawl (The Washington Post, November 16, 2018).

U.S. border guards can process 100 migrants per day, meaning months of waiting in MexicoWhat had been a plodding slog through southern Mexico rapidly accelerated in the past week, as many migrants rode in buses , provided by local governments

Nicaragua

– Jacobo Garcia, Javier Lafuente, Ortega Cancela su Participacion en la Cumbre Iberoamericana de Guatemala (El Pais (Spain), November 16, 2018).

Ortega, que tampoco asistió a la Asamblea General de la ONU, profundiza el aislamiento de Nicaragua tras la represión emprendida por su Gobierno después de las protestas de mayo

Western Hemisphere Regional

– Robert Burns, Pentagon: Troop Contingent on Border ‘Pretty Much Peaked’ (Associated Press **, November 16, 2018).

Mattis said that within a week to 10 days, the troops currently deployed along the border in Texas, Arizona and California will have accomplished all the tasks initially requested by Customs and Border Protection, although he said additional requests were expected

– Damian Paletta, Erica Werner, Gop Leaders Aim to Avert Shutdown Over Wall Funding, but Trump Makes No Promises (The Washington Post, November 16, 2018).

Durbin, a longtime champion of permanent protections for immigrants brought illegally to the country as children, said he was not aware of talks to make a deal on those “dreamers” in exchange for money for Trump’s wall

Video and Audio of “Uncertain Times: What Lies Ahead for Colombia?”

Last week I sat down with my WOLA colleague Gimena Sánchez and with Lisa Haugaard, director of the Latin America Working Group, to talk about the state of Colombia’s peace accord implementation. All three of us had done recent fieldwork there.

WOLA has posted the video to YouTube, here and embedded below.

If you prefer things offline, you can download the video from my Vimeo page, or grab just the audio as an mp3 file.

(I had an earlier speaking engagement across town, and come into this more than half an hour after it begins. I’m seeing that bit for the first time now, too.)

Downloadable video and audio of our October 16 conference

Last week, WOLA posted to YouTube the five-plus-hour video of our October 16 conference, “Staying on Course: Security, Coca, Justice, and Accord Implementation in Colombia.” There, you can see the entirety of the outstanding panels in which visiting experts from Colombia talked about transitional justice, coca, and the security situation. Note that it’s in both English and Spanish—we didn’t have the capability to record and dub in the interpreter’s feed.

If you prefer offline viewing, as I often do (those long airplane trips), I’ve also posted the video to Vimeo with a download link. Or you can hear just the audio as a monster (250-plus-megabyte) mp3 file here.

But again, you need to be comfortable in both English and Spanish. Sorry about that.

Here’s the YouTube stream:

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