Adam Isacson

Defense, security, borders, migration, and human rights in Latin America and the United States. May not reflect my employer’s consensus view.

Charts

November 20, 2023 — 0

Border and Migration Infographics: Update and Upgrade

At WOLA’s Border Oversight site, I’ve updated all of our giant collection of charts and graphics about border security and migration at the U.S.-Mexico border, and along the U.S.-bound migration route.

There’s about 90 charts there. That’s hard to navigate. In order to fix that, I’ve added a table of contents to the archive.

Here, through the magic of copy-and-pasting, is that table of contents:

Visualizations of data related to U.S. border governance and migration

At the U.S.-Mexico border

Migrant Deaths

Countries Along the U.S.-Bound Migration Route

Border Patrol Staffing

U.S. Immigration Courts

Drug Seizures

 

At the U.S.-Mexico Border

Yearly Apprehensions or Encounters

  • Border Patrol apprehensions of all migrants, by year and by country, since 2007 (View) (Data table)
  • Border Patrol apprehensions of all migrants, by year since 1960, and by year and by country (Mexico and non-Mexico) since 2000 (View) (Data table)
  • Border Patrol apprehensions of all migrants, by year since 1960, and by year and by demographic category since 2012 (View) (Data table)
  • Border Patrol apprehensions of all migrants, by year and by demographic category since 2012, showing the proportion of children and families (View) (Data table)
  • Border Patrol + CBP encounters with all migrants, last three full years by country, three-column presentation (View) (Data table)

Monthly Apprehensions or Encounters

  • Border Patrol apprehensions of all migrants, by month and by country, since October 2020 (View) (Data table)
  • Border Patrol + CBP encounters with all migrants, by month and by country, since October 2020 (View) (Data table)
  • Border Patrol + CBP encounters with single adult migrants, by month and by country, since October 2020 (View) (Data table)
  • Border Patrol + CBP encounters with family-unit and accompanied child migrants, by month and by country, since October 2020 (View) (Data table)
  • Border Patrol + CBP encounters with unaccompanied child migrants, by month and by country, since October 2020 (View) (Data table)
  • Border Patrol + CBP encounters with all migrants, last three months by country, three-column presentation (View) (Data table)
  • Border Patrol apprehensions of all migrants, last three months by country, three-column presentation (View) (Data table)
  • CBP port-of-entry encounters with all migrants, last three months by country, three-column presentation (View) (Data table)
  • Percentage of all migrants encountered by CBP at ports of entry, last three months by country, three-column presentation (View) (Data table for port of entry encounters – all migrant encounters)
  • Border Patrol apprehensions of all migrants, by month and by border sector, since October 1999 (View) (Data table)
  • Border Patrol apprehensions of all migrants, by month and by demographic, since October 2011 (View) (Data table)
  • Border Patrol apprehensions of family unit members and unaccompanied children, by month and by demographic, since October 2011 (View) (Data table)
  • Border Patrol apprehensions of single adults, by month, since October 2011 (View) (Data table)

Border Sectors

  • Border Patrol apprehensions of all migrants, by month and by border sector, since October 2020 (View) (Data table)
  • Border Patrol apprehensions of all migrants, by month and by country, in the San Diego Sector, since October 2019 (View) (Data table)
  • Border Patrol apprehensions of all migrants, by month and by country, in the El Centro Sector, since October 2019 (View) (Data table)
  • Border Patrol apprehensions of all migrants, by month and by country, in the Yuma Sector, since October 2019 (View) (Data table)
  • Border Patrol apprehensions of all migrants, by month and by country, in the Tucson Sector, since October 2019 (View) (Data table)
  • Border Patrol apprehensions of all migrants, by month and by country, in the El Paso Sector, since October 2019 (View) (Data table)
  • Border Patrol apprehensions of all migrants, by month and by country, in the Big Bend Sector, since October 2019 (View) (Data table)
  • Border Patrol apprehensions of all migrants, by month and by country, in the Del Rio Sector, since October 2019 (View) (Data table)
  • Border Patrol apprehensions of all migrants, by month and by country, in the Laredo Sector, since October 2019 (View) (Data table)
  • Border Patrol apprehensions of all migrants, by month and by country, in the Rio Grande Valley Sector, since October 2019 (View) (Data table)
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November 18, 2023 — 0

Annual CBP Migrant Encounters at the U.S.-Mexico Border, by Nationality

The U.S. government’s 2023 fiscal year ended on September 30. Here’s a comparison of migration at the U.S.-Mexico border, by migrants’ nationalities, over the past three fiscal years.

Data table

From 2021 to 2023,

  • The three nationalities that saw the largest aggregate increases in migration:
    • Venezuela +217,393
    • “Other Countries” not specifically named in CBP’s data releases +155,007
    • Colombia +153,334
  • The three nationalities that saw the largest percentage increases in migration:
    • China +5,303%
    • Colombia +2,472%
    • Peru +2,268%
  • The three nationalities that saw the largest aggregate decreases in migration:
    • Honduras -105,638
    • Guatemala -62,950
    • El Salvador -37,175
  • The three nationalities that saw the largest percentage decreases in migration:
    • Ukraine -64%
    • Brazil -51%
    • Romania -49%

See also:

November 14, 2023 — 0

Migration at the U.S.-Mexico Border Dropped 11 Percent from September to October

All CBP (Border Patrol Plus Port of Entry) Migrant Encounters by Country at the U.S.-Mexico Border October 2023: Mexico 26%, Venezuela 17%, Guatemala 10%, Honduras 9%, Colombia 6%, Cuba 5.2%, Ecuador 5.0%, El Salvador 3%, All Others <2% Since October 2020: Mexico 33%, Honduras 11.2%, Guatemala 11.1%, Venezuela 8%, Cuba 6%, Nicaragua 5%, Colombia 4.5%, All Others <4% Mexico Honduras Guatemala Venezuela Cuba Nicaragua Colombia El Salvador Ecuador Other Countries 20-Oct 46786 7370 9292 143 1679 256 26 3014 2220 1143 20-Nov 44164 8199 10323 184 1590 387 69 3650 2765 782 20-Dec 39370 10358 12454 206 2067 640 73 3921 3676 1229 21-Jan 40793 11232 13137 295 1899 534 69 3580 3598 3277 21-Feb 44257 20180 19154 913 3848 706 76 5599 3440 2926 21-Mar 62504 42116 34060 2566 5700 1930 179 9475 5579 9168 21-Apr 65597 38205 30053 6048 3288 3074 260 11043 8079 13148 21-May 70874 32131 26452 7499 2664 4414 408 10462 11691 14002 21-Jun 64908 35033 30246 7583 3072 7435 481 11582 12803 15891 21-Jul 59959 45297 36468 6126 3559 13456 751 12719 17335 17923 21-Aug 56397 42125 37108 6301 4496 9979 1562 12692 17611 21569 21-Sep 59985 27078 24288 10814 4812 7298 2248 10953 7353 37172 21-Oct 66049 21861 19374 13416 5896 9255 3015 9801 748 15422 21-Nov 63846 20105 20469 20388 6605 13627 3368 9664 556 16217 21-Dec 51475 18141 21009 24801 7986 15297 4094 8874 673 26903 22-Jan 60341 12011 13856 22779 9721 11564 3911 5810 602 14279 22-Feb 71850 14075 18215 3073 16557 13296 9608 7146 683 11507 22-Mar 88132 16213 21392 4053 32153 16017 15373 8403 877 19961 22-Apr 82568 15734 19910 4107 34839 12565 13128 8355 1636 42943 22-May 77453 19730 21468 5088 25643 19034 19320 8980 3046 41374 22-Jun 66730 24177 24648 13199 16172 11200 12597 9123 3231 26757 22-Jul 55692 20340 20212 17647 20098 12073 13454 7952 2948 29746 22-Aug 60772 16219 15681 25361 19060 11749 13497 6675 3681 31392 22-Sep 63431 14417 15331 33804 26178 18199 13807 6247 5379 30754 22-Oct 66277 14100 14843 22060 28851 20923 17362 6069 7030 34014 22-Nov 59348 13143 14510 8013 34710 34249 15846 5532 11999 37823 22-Dec 48390 13276 14885 8187 42654 35381 17731 4860 16206 50745 23-Jan 62265 11030 11970 9102 6462 3382 9471 3779 9416 30481 23-Feb 65271 10935 14220 5565 753 636 12851 4719 7372 34308 23-Mar 81307 13355 15293 8320 1316 482 17055 5765 7143 43213 23-Apr 67091 13218 14584 34633 1608 506 17843 4677 6396 51436 23-May 55405 21035 14817 32733 2804 718 18130 5349 6474 49225 23-Jun 49262 15093 10362 20453 2681 417 4705 3182 5105 33296 23-Jul 53928 26023 22127 18958 3668 445 5951 3953 9912 38514 23-Aug 55493 35168 37937 31463 6179 736 8948 6080 13631 37328 23-Sep 53296 27310 34537 66584 10666 1621 13643 7550 15545 38983 23-Oct 63003 21819 23845 40863 12495 3306 13773 7250 12154 42480

Data table

New CBP data for the U.S.-Mexico border is out through October. Combining migrants who came to ports of entry with migrants whom Border Patrol apprehended between the ports of entry, migration fell from 269,735 people in September to 240,988 in October (-11 percent).

Nearly all of the net reduction is citizens of Venezuela, whose numbers fell -39 percent (66,584 in September to 40,863 in October). The Biden administration’s October 5 announcement of resumed deportation flights to Venezuela probably explains the reduction. News of the resumption may have led some would-be migrants to pause their plans.

This drop will probably be short-lived, unless the Biden administration pursues a massive, costly, cruel, and politically absurd blitz of frequent aerial deportation flights to Caracas. (We see no signs of that happening yet.) As I wrote a couple of days ago, it is reasonable to expect Venezuelan migration to recover, as conditions in the country remain dire and as Venezuelans considering migration realize that the probability of aerial deportation is slim.

See also:

November 12, 2023 — 0

Annual Border Patrol Migrant Encounters by Country at the U.S.-Mexico Border

I made this chart, and underlying data table, by combining CBP’s migrant encounter data from 2020-2023 with data scraped from this big ugly CBP PDF covering 2007-2020.

Annual Border Patrol Migrant Encounters by Country at the U.S.-Mexico Border 2023: Mexico 31%, Guatemala 11.2%, Venezuela 10.6%, Mexico 20%, Honduras 10%, Colombia 8%, Cuba 6.1%, Ecuador 6.0%, All Others <6% Since 2007: Mexico 51%, Guatemala 13%, Honduras 11%, El Salvador 6%, Venezuela 4%, Cuba 3.2%, All Others <3% Mexico Guatemala Honduras El Salvador Venezuela Cuba Nicaragua Colombia Ecuador Other Countries 2007 800634 16307 21703 13602 60 131 1484 302 769 3647 2008 653035 15143 18110 12133 48 132 1327 215 1384 3478 2009 495582 14125 13344 11181 32 105 841 233 1169 4253 2010 396819 16831 12231 13123 35 84 760 307 1571 5970 2011 280580 17582 11270 10368 28 66 520 217 1064 5882 2012 262341 34453 30349 21903 28 40 876 185 2226 4472 2013 265409 54143 46448 36957 34 73 1389 365 3958 5621 2014 226771 80473 90968 66419 15 98 1809 233 4748 7837 2015 186017 56691 33445 43392 23 106 1015 282 2556 7806 2016 190760 74601 52952 71848 40 78 1298 302 2713 14278 2017 127938 65871 47260 49760 73 147 1057 196 1429 10185 2018 152257 115722 76513 31369 62 74 3282 192 1495 15613 2019 166458 264168 253795 89811 2202 11645 13309 401 13131 36588 2020 253118 47243 40091 16484 1227 9822 2123 295 11861 18387 2021 608037 279033 308931 95930 47752 38139 49841 5838 95692 114247 2022 738780 228220 199186 93196 187286 220321 163552 124540 23944 177672 2023 579146 213266 180659 53348 200668 116498 97757 154077 113813 188135

Data table

Looking at this, three things jump out at you:

  1. Until about 10 years ago, the migrant population at the U.S.-Mexico border was almost completely Mexican citizens (blue). More than 90 percent Mexican until 2009. More than 80 percent Mexican until 2012. Just 31 percent Mexican in 2023.
  2. Until the pandemic hit, the migrant population was almost completely Mexican, Salvadoran, Guatemalan, or Honduran (blue, darker green, brown, yellow). More than 90 percent came from those four countries until 2019; their share dropped to 89 percent in 2020. But just 54 percent came from those four countries in 2023.
  3. Since the pandemic, the diversity of nationalities apprehended at the U.S.-Mexico border has multiplied. The arrival of more migrants from Cuba, Haiti, and South America reflects increasing insecurity and economic desperation, but also the emergence of new routes further south, like the “opening” of the Darién Gap and aerial arrivals in Nicaragua.

See also:

November 11, 2023 — 0

Haiti Led Nationalities of In-Transit Migration Through Honduras in October

Honduras’s “Irregular” Migrant Encounters (Since August 2022) October 2023: Haiti 35%, Venezuela 34%, Cuba 17%, Ecuador 4%, Guinea 2.3%, Colombia 2.0%, All Others <2% Since August 2022: Venezuela 41%, Cuba 17%, Haiti 15%, Ecuador 11%, Colombia 2.1%, All Others <2% Venezuela Cuba Haiti Ecuador Colombia China Senegal Guinea Mauritania Other Countries 22-Aug 10769 6899 836 1583 314 42 118 19 18 2278 22-Sep 11325 5144 863 1685 379 45 135 23 14 2220 22-Oct 14027 5290 1856 5793 723 99 185 30 18 3037 22-Nov 3756 9219 2858 5130 400 186 158 34 38 3857 22-Dec 1923 7225 2518 6557 231 405 87 22 63 4034 23-Jan 1866 2079 5365 4562 296 415 202 72 31 4054 23-Feb 4462 629 4092 5010 449 688 159 97 71 4449 23-Mar 9112 776 2991 2493 624 719 191 90 88 4576 23-Apr 10883 1301 2392 1692 682 985 472 87 87 4350 23-May 11809 2397 1629 2147 654 801 831 277 427 4398 23-Jun 12698 3254 1305 2817 488 1045 390 118 1801 2870 23-Jul 25050 6721 1558 6116 954 980 1398 389 2036 3769 23-Aug 35669 11343 4051 5789 1330 654 1629 1005 1036 3020 23-Sep 42550 19288 14898 4830 2174 570 1066 1762 48 3453 23-Oct 34547 17513 35529 3581 2021 1006 1235 2304 75 4198

Data table

We’ve grown accustomed to Venezuela (blue in this chart) being the number-one nationality of migrants transiting Central America and Mexico to come to the United States. Venezuela has been the number-one country of citizenship of people transiting Honduras during every month since March, and U.S. authorities encountered more migrants from Venezuela than from any other country—including Mexico—at the U.S.-Mexico border in September.

Data from Honduras in October, however, show at least a temporary pause in that trend. Last month, Honduras registered more migrants from Haiti transiting its territory (brown in this chart) than from Venezuela. (A new “Mixed Movements Protection Monitoring” report from UNCHR also notes this trend.)

It was a record month for Honduras’s registries of in-transit migrants from around the world: 102,009 people with “irregular” migratory status registered with the government, a necessary step for a short-term legal status making it possible to board buses to get across the country. Of that number, 35,529 were Haitian and 34,547 were Venezuelan. (271 were recorded as Brazilian and 489 as Chilean; many—probably most—of them were children born to Haitian citizen parents who had been living in those countries.)

Transit of Venezuelan migrants through Honduras fell 19 percent from September to October, from 42,550 to 34,547 people.

A possible reason could be a reaction to the Biden administration’s early October agreement with Venezuela to resume deportation flights to Caracas, news of which may have led some would-be migrants to pause their plans. Aerial deportations are expensive, however, and a charter flight to Venezuela only holds about 100-150 people. It is reasonable to expect Venezuelan migration to recover, as conditions in the country remain dire and as Venezuelans considering migration realize that the probability of aerial deportation is slim.

The sharp increase in Haitian migration appears to owe to a new air route from Haiti to Nicaragua, which does not require that visiting citizens of Haiti obtain a visa in advance (though it charges them a steep fee upon arrival). For more on that, see this good November 6 analysis from the Honduras-based journalism website ContraCorriente.

See also:

October 22, 2023 — 0

Venezuela Was the Number-One Nationality of Migrants at the U.S.-Mexico Border in September

For the first month since August 2019, Mexico is not the number-one nationality of migrants encountered at the U.S.-Mexico border. Venezuela, for the first time, was number one.

Chart: All CBP (Border Patrol Plus Port of Entry) Migrant Encounters by Country at the U.S.-Mexico Border September 2023: Venezuela 25%, Mexico 20%, Guatemala 13%, Honduras 10%, Ecuador 6%, Colombia 5%, Cuba 4%, El Salvador 3%, All Others <3% Since October 2020: Mexico 33%, Honduras 11.3%, Guatemala 11.1%, Venezuela 8%, Cuba 6%, Nicaragua 5%, Colombia 4.4%, All Others <4%

Data table

Just-released data show that Border Patrol apprehended 54,833 citizens of Venezuela in the areas between the U.S.-Mexico border’s ports of entry in September, a record for countries other than Mexico, and far more than its apprehensions of 39,773 Mexican citizens in September.

Chart: Border Patrol Apprehensions by Country at the U.S.-Mexico Border September 2023: Venezuela 25%, Mexico 18%, Guatemala 15%, Honduras 11%, Ecuador 7%, Colombia 6%, El Salvador 3%, All Others <2% Since October 2020: Mexico 33%, Guatemala 12.2%, Honduras 11.7%, Venezuela 7%, Cuba 6%, Nicaragua 5.3%, Colombia 4.8%, El Salvador 4.1%, All Others <4%

Data table

At the ports of entry (official border crossings), Customs and Border Protection (CBP) encountered 11,751 more Venezuelan citizens, most of them asylum seekers who had made appointments using the CBP One smartphone app. (In September, of 50,972 people who made it onto U.S. soil at ports of entry, CBP reports that about 43,000—84 percent—had CBP One appointments.) Mexico, with 13,523 citizens encountered, was still the number-one nationality at the ports of entry.

Chart: CBP Port of Entry Migrant Encounters by Country at the U.S.-Mexico Border September 2023: Mexico 27%, Venezuela 23%, Cuba 19%, Haiti 9%, Honduras 7%, Russia 3%, Colombia 2%, All Others <2% Since October 2020: Mexico 38%, Haiti 15%, Venezuela 10%, Honduras 8.4%, Russia 8.3%, Cuba 4%, All Others <4%

Data Table

Add together the ports of entry and the areas between them, and Venezuela was the number-one nationality in September with 66,584 migrant encounters. Mexico was the number-two nationality, with 53,296. No other nationality came close; Guatemala was in third place with 34,537.

September marked the end of the U.S. government’s 2023 fiscal year. For decades, CBP has reported its migrant encounters by fiscal year, so we now have a “year-end” comparison, at least for Border Patrol apprehensions between the ports of entry. Using this metric—which may include some double-counting, with the same migrant being apprehended two or more times—we find that 2023 was the number-two year ever for Border Patrol migrant encounters at the U.S.-Mexico border. Only 2022 was higher.

Data table

Only 28 percent of migrants apprehended at the Mexico border in fiscal 2023 were citizens of Mexico. Since 2000, 67 percent of migrants apprehended at the border have been Mexican citizens.

(Note: at GitHub, I’ve updated the tool I use to make these and many other migration charts, with data going back to October 2019. I use it all the time, feel free to run a version of your own. It does require you to know how to run a free web server on your computer; I don’t make it public because generating a table with 48 months and 20 countries makes a web server work very hard.)

See also:

October 11, 2023 — 0

Darién Gap Migration Through September

September was the 2nd busiest month ever (after August) for migration through the Darién Gap jungle region straddling Colombia and Panama, according to data just published by Panama’s government.

Blue is Venezuela, green is Haiti, brown is Ecuador.

Data table

Here is the same information, except zoomed out annually since 2010.

Data table

See also:

October 10, 2023 — 0

90,639 People Migrated in Transit Across Honduras in September

Data table listing more than 140 nationalities that have transited Honduras since August 2022

Just over five months ago, we visited what is by far the most-used border crossing from Nicaragua (Trojes-Danlí) and were amazed by the number of people we saw on the move. Now, it’s more than three times as many people.

The source is the Honduran government’s National Migration Institute. Since August 2022, Honduras has waived fees charged to migrants entering its territory, instead requiring all to register and have their information entered in a database. That allows migrants to get a form required to board buses through the country. As a result, Honduras’s numbers do record most people coming through.

October 4, 2023 — 0

Charts: Drug Seizures at the U.S.-Mexico Border

We now have 11 months of data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) about how much illicit drugs the agency seized at the U.S.-Mexico border during the 2023 fiscal year so far (from October 2022 to August 2023). That’s enough to compare this year’s drug seizures with previous years’.

With one exception—fentanyl—the data show a drop or stagnation in the amount of drugs being detected crossing the border.

Drugs manufactured from plants are turning up less often. A few years ago, Americans addicted to prescription opioids were turning to heroin made in Mexico (from the poppy plant), and heroin seizures were way up. That is no longer true: fentanyl competes with heroin, and it’s cheaper and easier to make. Heroin seizures have fallen sharply.

Data table

As is the case with all drugs except marijuana, 90 percent of this year’s border heroin seizures have taken place at ports of entry (official border crossings), where CBP’s Office of Field Operations operates—not the areas in between the ports where Border Patrol operates. 60 percent of all border-wide heroin seizures happened at California ports of entry (CBP’s San Diego Field Office).

Cocaine seizures are flat, despite evidence of increased production in the Andes (from the coca plant). 81 percent has been seized at ports of entry this year. 47 percent of all border-wide heroin seizures happened at California ports of entry (CBP’s San Diego Field Office), and another 23 percent at south Texas ports of entry (Laredo Field Office).

Data table

Marijuana seizures have been declining for a while. With so many U.S. states now allowing some form of legal, regulated sale of cannabis, there’s far less reason to take the risk of importing it from Mexico.

Data table

Marijuana is the only drug that mostly gets seized between the ports of entry. Only 25 percent was seized at ports of entry in fiscal 2023. Most marijuana gets seized in Texas (in 2023 so far, Border Patrol’s Rio Grande Valley Sector 31 percent, Border Patrol’s Big Bend Sector 22 percent, CBP’s Laredo Field Office 19 percent, and Border Patrol’s Laredo Sector 12 percent).

I haven’t done the research to understand why, but seizures of a major synthetic (not plant-based) drug, methamphetamine, have also fallen. 88 percent of meth got seized at ports of entry this year. Of all border-wide 2023 seizures, 63 percent happened at California ports of entry (CBP’s San Diego Field Office).

Data table

The one drug that’s being seized in far greater amounts is fentanyl. CBP seized 106 percent more of the highly potent, highly compact synthetic opioid in the first 11 months of fiscal 2023 than it did in the same period of fiscal 2022. (That’s measured in the weight of pills or other form of seized doses, not the weight of pure fentanyl.)

Data table

89 percent of fentanyl seizures took place at ports of entry during the first 11 months of fiscal 2023. The ports in California (San Diego, blue) and Arizona (Tucson, green) have accounted for 87 percent of all 2023 fentanyl seizures border-wide.

Data table

October 4, 2023 — 0

Asylum Requests in Mexico by Nationality

Using data released today from the Mexican government’s Refugee Aid Commission (COMAR), here is the breakdown of asylum requests before Mexico’s system during what is certain to be a record-breaking year. Asylum requests in Mexico are on track to exceed 150,000 in 2023.

Chart: Asylum Requests in Mexico by Nationality 2023: Haiti 33%, Honduras 27%, Cuba 11%, El Salvador 4.5%, Venezuela 4.2%, Guatemala 4.1%, All others <4% Since 2013: Honduras 32%, Haiti 22%, Cuba 10%, El Salvador 8.95%, Venezuela 8.93%, All others <5% Honduras Haiti Cuba El Salvador Venezuela Guatemala Nicaragua Brazil** Chile** Other Countries 2013 530 14 98 309 1 47 20 277 2014 1035 25 96 626 56 108 28 163 2015 1560 16 37 1476 57 102 28 2 145 2016 4129 47 43 3494 361 437 70 2 213 2017 4274 436 796 3708 4038 676 62 4 1 624 2018 13679 76 214 6193 6331 1347 1271 524 2019 30082 5530 8679 9039 7621 3772 2233 554 2841 2020 15364 5909 5712 4011 3241 3002 803 368 806 1698 2021 36079 50944 8249 5945 6125 4118 2894 3795 6891 4740 2022 31005 17074 18076 7782 14886 5259 8975 2569 12596 2023 31055 37736 12777 5033 4784 4646 3531 3183 10215

Data table

Last month, Mexico received 11,984 asylum requests, the second-lowest monthly total all year. 33 percent came from citizens of Haiti, plus another 6 percent from Brazil and Chile who are almost entirely the children born in those countries to Haitian migrants there. Honduras followed with 27 percent of September’s total, then Cuba (11 percent).

October 4, 2023 — 0

Venezuelan Citizens Set Record for Non-Mexican Migration at the U.S.-Mexico border

CBS News reported new information about Venezuelan migration at the U.S.-Mexico border in September, from preliminary U.S. government data:

Approximately 50,000 migrants from crisis-stricken Venezuela crossed the U.S.-Mexico border unlawfully last month, a record and once-unthinkable number, according to preliminary Department of Homeland Security statistics obtained by CBS News.

According to my records (U.S. Customs and Border Protection’s public monthly reporting by citizenship is spotty before the mid-2010s), 50,000 Venezuelan citizens is the greatest-ever number of migrants in a single month at the U.S.-Mexico border from any country other than Mexico. For non-Mexican migrants, the closest numbers I see in the past are 45,201 citizens of Guatemala in May 2019, and 45,297 citizens of Honduras in July 2021.

Charted out, that September number would look like this. The blue part, which more than doubled from August to September, is Venezuelan migrants who crossed the border between ports of entry, ending up in Border Patrol custody. We still don’t know the additional green part for September, which shows migrants who came to ports of entry, usually with “CBP One” appointments (9,373 Venezuelan citizens in August).

Chart: Citizens of Venezuela: CBP Encounters At and Between Ports of Entry Using numbers in the linked data table, shows monthly Venezuelan migrants since October 2019 as columns. Venezuelan migrants are a few hundred per month at most until February and March 2021, then rise above 30,000 in 3 months between September 2022 and May 2023. They rise above 30,000 in August, then reach the estimated 50,000 in September—without including those who come to ports of entry, which hasn't been reported yet.

Data table without the September estimate added

Heavy U.S.-bound movement of Venezuelan citizens continues through the Darién Gap, Central America, and Mexico. If arrivals continue at this pace, calls to “do something” about the situation causing so many Venezuelans to migrate will proliferate. Within a few months, Venezuela could be right up there—after perhaps Ukraine and the South China Sea—among the Biden administration’s top foreign policy priorities going into an election year.

October 3, 2023 — 0

From CRS: U.S. Assistance to Latin America and the Caribbean FY1946-FY2021

Chart entitled "U.S. Assistance to Latin America and the Caribbean: FY1946-FY2021." Includes aid obligations from all U.S. government agencies, adjusted for inflation. Comprehensive data for FY2022 and FY2023 are not yet available. Shows peaks in the 1960s (Alliance for Progress, the largest peak), the Reagan 1980s, Plan Colombia 2000, the Mérida Initiative and Haiti earthquake 2010, and launch of the Central America engagement strategy 2015-16. The current moment is about average, perhaps below average, a bit over $3 billion adjusted for inflation. The 1960s peak is about $7.5 billion.

This chart comes from a September 27 Congressional Research Service report, by Peter Meyer, about U.S. aid to Latin America and the Caribbean, going through the 2024 appropriations request (which Congress hasn’t funded yet).

When you adjust for inflation, nothing comes close to the amount of U.S. assistance the region received in the 1960s, during the Alliance for Progress, an aid program the Kennedy Administration launched in large part to prevent other countries from turning to Communist revolution like Cuba did.

The next biggest peaks are the 2010 response to Haiti’s earthquake just as the Mérida Initiative aid package was getting underway in Mexico; the Reagan administration’s Cold-War funding of civil wars in Central America; the Plan Colombia years of the 2000s; the Central America strategy that the Obama administration started (and Trump did not continue) after a 2014 wave of child and family migration; and the onset of the Drug War in the late 1980s.

My own career started during that deep trough of assistance during the post-Cold War Clinton 1990s. (I graduated college in 1992 and grad school in 1994.) Ironically, it was right at the absolute nadir that I co-founded a project to monitor U.S. security assistance in the Americas. (The data from that project, going back to 1996, is still part of the Center for International Policy’s Security Assistance Monitor.)

October 2, 2023 — 0

Mexico’s Asylum Applications Are on a Record-Breaking Pace

The director of the Mexican government’s Refugee Aid Commission (COMAR) just shared on ex-Twitter that 112,960 people sought asylum in Mexico’s protection system during the first 9 months of 2023.

The tweet reads, “At the end of September, COMAR had registered 112,960 applicants for refugee status in Mexico. This figure exceeds by 26.39% the historical mark for the same period established in 2021. With this trend, the number of applicants will exceed 150,000 by the end of the year.”

Here’s how Mexico’s asylum applications during the first nine months of 2023 compare with the first nine months of the previous five years. It’s not even close.

September 30, 2023 — 0

Humanitarian Parole Recipients By Nationality

Data table

While not 100 percent exact—the Department of Homeland Security isn’t sharing exact numbers—this chart gives a pretty accurate sense of which nationalities’ citizens have benefited from the two-year Humanitarian Parole program that the Biden administration has set up for citizens of Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela. To qualify for the paroled status in the United States, citizens of those countries must apply online from outside U.S. territory, have a passport, have a U.S.-based sponsor, and undergo a background check.

Haitians have taken fullest advantage of the program since the Biden administration created it for Venezuelan citizens in October 2022, and expanded it to the other three countries in January 2023. U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) reported on September 22:

Through the end of August 2023, over 211,000 Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, and Venezuelans had arrived lawfully under the parole processes. This number includes more than 45,000 Cubans, more than 71,000 Haitians, more than 32,000 Nicaraguans, and more than 61,000 Venezuelans who have arrived in the U.S. More than 47,000 Cubans, more than 84,000 Haitians, more than 39,000 Nicaraguans, and more than 68,000 Venezuelans have been vetted and authorized for travel.

September 26, 2023 — 0

1 in 300 Hondurans, in a Month

For about every 300 Honduran citizens living in Honduras, 1 was apprehended at the U.S.-Mexico border in August 2023 alone. That’s 35,173 people out of a population of 10.6 million.

Chart: Citizens of Honduras: CBP Encounters At and Between Ports of Entry Between the Ports of Entry (Border Patrol) At the Ports of Entry (CBP Office of Field Operations) 19-Oct 5449 270 19-Nov 4479 295 19-Dec 4202 180 20-Jan 2567 211 20-Feb 2802 175 20-Mar 3226 124 20-Apr 1872 19 20-May 1712 34 20-Jun 2101 46 20-Jul 2880 25 20-Aug 3983 45 20-Sep 4818 28 20-Oct 7330 40 20-Nov 8146 53 20-Dec 10296 62 21-Jan 11162 70 21-Feb 20102 78 21-Mar 41989 127 21-Apr 37738 467 21-May 30624 1507 21-Jun 32620 2413 21-Jul 42594 2703 21-Aug 39532 2593 21-Sep 26798 280 21-Oct 21779 82 21-Nov 19917 188 21-Dec 17856 285 22-Jan 11726 285 22-Feb 13689 386 22-Mar 15709 504 22-Apr 14261 1473 22-May 17999 1731 22-Jun 22712 1465 22-Jul 18123 2217 22-Aug 13218 3001 22-Sep 12197 2220 22-Oct 10658 3445 22-Nov 10160 2990 22-Dec 10329 2947 23-Jan 8982 2048 23-Feb 10098 837 23-Mar 11524 1831 23-Apr 12112 1106 23-May 17813 3226 23-Jun 10660 4434 23-Jul 23091 2934 23-Aug 31747 3426

Data table

Even more citizens from Guatemala arrived at the border in August (37,937), but Guatemala’s population is larger (18.1 million). That is 1 of every 477 Guatemalan citizens living in Guatemala.

Citizens of Guatemala: CBP Encounters At and Between Ports of Entry Between the Ports of Entry (Border Patrol) At the Ports of Entry (CBP Office of Field Operations) 19-Oct 5788 121 19-Nov 6129 111 19-Dec 6396 94 20-Jan 4487 93 20-Feb 4802 83 20-Mar 4269 60 20-Apr 1340 17 20-May 702 22 20-Jun 997 67 20-Jul 2349 69 20-Aug 4106 40 20-Sep 5878 34 20-Oct 9225 67 20-Nov 10279 44 20-Dec 12394 60 21-Jan 13082 55 21-Feb 19029 125 21-Mar 33921 139 21-Apr 29782 271 21-May 25846 606 21-Jun 29423 823 21-Jul 35674 794 21-Aug 36216 892 21-Sep 24162 126 21-Oct 19301 73 21-Nov 20379 90 21-Dec 20908 101 22-Jan 13746 110 22-Feb 18081 134 22-Mar 21245 147 22-Apr 19453 457 22-May 21076 392 22-Jun 24219 429 22-Jul 19810 402 22-Aug 15092 589 22-Sep 14910 421 22-Oct 14254 593 22-Nov 13970 545 22-Dec 14247 639 23-Jan 11531 439 23-Feb 14016 204 23-Mar 14884 409 23-Apr 14310 273 23-May 14152 667 23-Jun 9548 814 23-Jul 21491 637 23-Aug 37204 733

Data table

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