Adam Isacson

Still trying to understand Latin America, my own country, and why so few consequences are intended. These views are not necessarily my employer’s.

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Less migration? Or stranded migrants?

This talking point about a “95% drop in border migrant encounters from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela” is problematic.

Why? Let’s examine encounters along the migration route, from north to south.

Here’s where the 95% comes from.

Chart: Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela Migrants Encountered Between U.S. Ports of Entry

	Jan-22	Feb-22	Mar-22	Apr-22	May-22	Jun-22	Jul-22	Aug-22	Sep-22	Oct-22	Nov-22	Dec-22	Jan-23	Feb-23	Mar-23
Between Ports of Entry (Border Patrol)	47270	34596	54042	55910	57280	40470	50069	56209	78256	71656	75658	84192	11909	2052	3811

US Border Patrol’s apprehensions of these 4 countries’ migrants really did drop steeply from December—after Mexico agreed to accept Title 42 expulsions of these nationalities, and once a “humanitarian parole” option opened up for some of them.

But there’s no 95% drop anywhere else along the migration route, where people fleeing those countries have become stranded.

Since December, Mexico’s encounters with these 4 countries’ migrants are only down 42%.

Chart: Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela Migrants Encountered in Mexico

	Jan-22	Feb-22	Mar-22	Apr-22	May-22	Jun-22	Jul-22	Aug-22	Sep-22	Oct-22	Nov-22	Dec-22	Jan-23	Feb-23	Mar-23
Total	7549	6601	10448	11221	8551	8071	11308	21545	22910	31047	23450	21124	12480	9859	12327

Since December, Honduras’s encounters with Cuban, Haitian, and Venezuelan migrants are up 10%.

(Nicaraguan citizens don’t need passports to be in Honduras, and thus don’t end up in Honduras’s count of “irregular” or “undocumented” migrants.)

Chart: Cuba, Haiti, and Venezuela Migrants Encountered in Honduras

	Jan-22	Feb-22	Mar-22	Apr-22	May-22	Jun-22	Jul-22	Aug-22	Sep-22	Oct-22	Nov-22	Dec-22	Jan-23	Feb-23	Mar-23
Total	1589	2253	7571	10703	10757	12726	10297	18504	17332	21173	15833	11666	9310	9183	12879

Since December, in Panama’s Darién Gap, migration from Cuba, Haiti, and Venezuela is up 250% (though down 57% from a high in October, before Mexico started accepting expulsions of Venezuelan migrants).

Chart: Cuba, Haiti, and Venezuela Migrants Encountered in Panama’s Darién Gap

	Jan-22	Feb-22	Mar-22	Apr-22	May-22	Jun-22	Jul-22	Aug-22	Sep-22	Oct-22	Nov-22	Dec-22	Jan-23	Feb-23	Mar-23
Total	2595	2534	2723	4113	11408	12800	18885	26142	41531	45781	6723	8340	14542	14946	29186

The upshot: migration from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, Venezuela may be down sharply at the US-Mexico border, due to aggressive Title 42 expulsions.

But the expulsions have absolutely not deterred these nations’ citizens from migrating. They’re still fleeing—but they’re stranded.

The cost of “success”

Chart: Migrants from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela Encountered At and Between Ports of Entry

	Oct-19	Nov-19	Dec-19	Jan-20	Feb-20	Mar-20	Apr-20	May-20	Jun-20	Jul-20	Aug-20	Sep-20	Oct-20	Nov-20	Dec-20	Jan-21	Feb-21	Mar-21	Apr-21	May-21	Jun-21	Jul-21	Aug-21	Sep-21	Oct-21	Nov-21	Dec-21	Jan-22	Feb-22	Mar-22	Apr-22	May-22	Jun-22	Jul-22	Aug-22	Sep-22	Oct-22	Nov-22	Dec-22	Jan-23	Feb-23	Mar-23
At Ports of Entry (CBP Office of Field Operations)	2098	1404	771	402	352	262	6	20	31	39	35	36	31	25	45	36	69	264	258	291	475	777	1083	98	44	124	116	166	207	352	1340	2999	4170	5129	6512	5088	6867	6729	7154	10173	12328	10698
Between Ports of Entry (Border Patrol)	1051	1138	1832	1204	1498	1137	276	603	1180	1829	2376	3443	2640	2233	3105	4410	6225	13016	13402	17103	23519	27885	27262	40464	29431	41518	55112	47270	34596	54042	55910	57280	40470	50069	56209	78256	71656	75658	84192	11909	2052	3811

Biden administration officials might view this chart as evidence of “policy success.”

Combining Title 42 expulsions, “CBP One” appointments, and humanitarian parole brought a 95% decrease in Border Patrol’s encounters with Cuban, Haitian, Nicaraguan, and Venezuelan migrants since December, and a 50% increase in the much smaller number of those able to come to ports of entry.

But a lot of the people who were in those tall green columns—many of whom may have valid asylum claims—remain in Mexican border cities. Stranded. More are coming, but since they’re not crossing the border from Mexico, this chart doesn’t show them.

Forty of these stranded people died in a fire a month ago in Ciudad Juárez. Now, in the past couple of days, 2,000 living in miserable tents in Matamoros have come under attack. The Associated Press reports:

About two dozen makeshift tents were set ablaze and destroyed at a migrant camp across the border from Texas this week, witnesses said Friday, a sign of the extreme risk that comes with being stuck in Mexico as the Biden administration increasingly relies on that country to host people fleeing poverty and violence. 

The fires were set Wednesday and Thursday at the sprawling camp of about 2,000 people, most of them from Venezuela, Haiti and Mexico, in Matamoros, a city near Brownsville, Texas. An advocate for migrants said they had been doused with gasoline.

The entire Western Hemisphere is in a moment of mass migration, as the Migration Policy Institute reminded us in a feature published last week. “The number of migrants living in the region nearly doubled from 8.3 million in 2010 to 16.3 million in 2022… Notably, much of the migration has been between countries within the region,” not to the United States.

A region-wide crisis demands that the Biden administration further expand its ability to process and fairly adjudicate this increased number of protection claims. At a time of historically low unemployment, it also requires creating more legal pathways to migration.

Right now, that can mean adjusting policies that are already in place.

  • The number of “CBP One” appointments for asylum applicants at U.S.-Mexico border ports of entry, which reached 764 per day in March, needs to increase substantially to keep up with the demand in Mexican border cities, where each day’s allotment of appointments runs out in minutes.
  • The administration’s “humanitarian parole” program must loosen its passport and U.S.-based sponsor requirements, which exclude people lacking connections, who are often the most vulnerable.

Without changes like these, Mexican border cities are going to continue filling up. We’ll see more tragedies, more attacks, more bridge closures as large groups of people gather after being misled by misinformation.

The people in this chart’s tall green columns aren’t going anywhere. Most have nowhere else to go. The pressure is going to keep building.

March migration at the U.S.-Mexico border

U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) released data this evening about its “encounters” (regular apprehensions and Title 42 expulsions) with undocumented migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border during March. Here are a few graphics illustrating key trends.

CBP and Border Patrol encountered migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border 23% more often in March than in February. Much of the variation was seasonal: March is usually busier due to milder weather.

The nationalities that increased by more than 2,500 migrant encounters from February to March were Mexico, Colombia, India, Venezuela, and Peru.

U.S. border authorities used the zombie Title 42 authority 87,661 times in March to expel migrants from the U.S.-Mexico border. That’s the most expulsions in a single month since last June.

Here’s the nationalities of migrants taken into CBP and Border Patrol custody at the US-Mexico border in each of the past 3 months.

Notable:

– Colombia is now the number 2 nationality (which may loom a bit over President Gustavo Petro’s visit to Washington this week).
– Peru is now 5th.
– March saw by far the largest number of migrants from India in a single month.
– Just because Title 42 gets applied to a nationality doesn’t mean it drops in the ranking.

These tables show which countries’ migrants most often come to the U.S.-Mexico border’s ports of entry (official border crossings).

This may give a sense of which nationalities’ migrants are having at least some success with the “CBP One” app’s asylum appointments feature. It’s surprisingly consistent.

One more: March saw CBP grant the largest number yet of appointments for migrants to seek asylum at U.S.-Mexico border ports of entry (official border crossings).

It averaged 764 appointments per day, virtually all of them made via the “CBP One” smartphone app.

Judging from widespread reports of frustration with the app in Mexican border cities, 764 spots a day is still just a fraction of protection needs. (These stats are from a court filing from yesterday, not CBP’s March data release.)

Big jump in (mostly Venezuelan) Darién Gap migration in March

In March, 55% of migrants toiling through Panama’s Darién Gap—671 people per day—were citizens of Venezuela.

This is so, even though since October, the Biden administration has used Title 42 to expel Venezuelans back to Mexico.

Top 10 nationalities in the Darién Gap in March:

  1. Venezuela 20,816
  2. Haiti (plus Brazil and Chile, mostly children of Haitians) 8,335
  3. Ecuador 2,772
  4. China 1,657
  5. Colombia 1,260
  6. India 1,109
  7. Afghanistan 359
  8. Peru 261
  9. Cameroon 174
  10. Somalia 160

Top 10 nationalities in the Darién Gap since January 2022:

  1. Venezuela 180,577
  2. Haiti (plus Brazil and Chile) 55,498
  3. Ecuador 43,683
  4. Colombia 7,294
  5. India 6,637
  6. Cuba 6,174
  7. China 5,860
  8. Afghanistan 3,146
  9. Dominican Republic 2,729
  10. Bangladesh 2,230

The source for this is the Panamanian government’s “Tránsito Irregular por Darién” tables.

Migration data from Mexico

Here’s more than 16 years of Mexico’s monthly apprehensions of migrants.

January 2007-January 2023

	07-Jan						07-Jul						08-Jan						08-Jul						09-Jan						09-Jul						10-Jan						10-Jul						11-Jan						11-Jul						12-Jan						12-Jul						13-Jan						13-Jul						14-Jan						14-Jul						15-Jan						15-Jul						16-Jan						16-Jul						17-Jan						17-Jul						18-Jan						18-Jul						19-Jan						19-Jul						20-Jan						20-Jul						21-Jan						21-Jul						22-Jan						22-Jul						23-Jan
Apprehensions	11215	11910	12473	11796	12004	11095	10846	12520	9047	7292	6431	3826	8970	10787	9305	11031	9747	8394	7585	6705	6521	6894	5506	3278	5943	6246	6884	6742	5701	6872	5718	5789	6039	5450	4388	3261	4759	5796	7336	6695	7075	6378	6760	6755	5098	4714	5077	3659	4430	5087	6695	6471	7852	5717	5215	5299	5586	5453	5267	3511	6343	7442	9291	8732	8874	8082	6860	6496	8746	7879	6364	3397	6699	7407	8290	7951	7718	7370	7471	7443	6657	7549	7300	4443	6295	8317	10502	8621	10132	12515	11005	11618	11111	13700	13671	9662	18299	14885	16569	17085	19402	17152	17195	17088	15450	18232	14755	12029	11218	11420	14253	16700	16454	14850	13604	16502	19811	20494	17579	13331	10553	7275	5905	5243	7071	7471	7863	9171	7757	9678	9227	6632	9248	11549	11779	11486	10350	9577	8965	13560	13903	18895	12663	6637	8521	10194	13508	21197	23241	31396	19822	16066	13517	12256	9727	7305	14119	8377	8421	2628	2251	2304	4737	7445	8831	12253	9557	6337	9564	12893	18548	22968	20091	19249	25830	43031	46370	41580	29264	18291	23382	24304	30753	31206	33290	30423	33902	42719	43792	52201	49485	48982	36147

Data table is here.

Zooming in on Mexico’s apprehensions of migrants, by nationality, since January 2022:

Chart: Mexico’s Migrant Apprehensions (Since 2022)

January 2023: Ecuador 16%, Venezuela 15%, Guatemala 11.1%, Honduras 10.6%, All Others <8%
Since January 2022: Venezuela 21%, Honduras 16%, Guatemala 15%, Cuba 9.2%, Nicaragua 8.9%, All Others <7%

	22-Jan	22-Feb	22-Mar	22-Apr	22-May	22-Jun	22-Jul	22-Aug	22-Sep	22-Oct	22-Nov	22-Dec	23-Jan
Venezuela	2733	1120	1209	1960	1640	3919	6431	16885	15381	21781	12298	11721	5314
Honduras	5841	5929	6390	6457	7544	6507	7461	5741	5309	5475	5895	4379	3847
Guatemala	6304	5191	6075	6920	7222	7010	6578	4927	4932	4632	5380	4344	4017
Cuba	2214	3384	6333	6103	3191	2481	2550	2159	3244	3247	3318	3251	2815
Nicaragua	2234	1843	2701	2854	3474	1561	2182	2327	4062	5711	7329	4547	2151
Colombia	503	2986	3375	1746	3031	2840	2169	2479	2704	2179	2225	2041	912
El Salvador	1565	1721	2338	2579	3307	1990	2936	2544	2471	2144	2379	1271	1212
Ecuador	246	202	276	513	780	668	719	1185	1528	3266	4459	8314	5808
Other countries	1742	1928	2056	2074	3101	3447	2876	4472	4161	3766	6202	9114	10071

New Invamer poll in Colombia

Chart of Invamer's time series of presidential approval/disapproval ratings, going back to 1994. Shows Petro now at 40% approval and 51% disapproval.

It’s been rare over the past 10 years for Colombia’s Invamer poll to show a president with a higher approval than disapproval rating. One such moment, the first months of Gustavo Petro’s presidency, has ended for now.

Colombia’s Blu Radio has the entire 112-page PDF of the poll’s results, with long time series. Also interesting:

Colombia’s National Police remain underwater.

Time series shows Colombia's police first being more unfavorable than favorable circa 2016, then decidedly so after mid-2020. Latest is 42% favorable, 50% unfavorable.

The Prosecutor-General’s office continues to enjoy little trust under Francisco Barbosa’s leadership.

Fiscalía General:

Current approval: 26&
Current disapproval: 61%

Support for granting TPS to Venezuelan refugees remains low, but is higher than ever.

Support: 41%, Oppose: 56%

A 19-point margin of support for the ELN peace talks—but it was a 41-point margin in August.

February: 56% agree with the government having restarted ELN talks, 37% disagree. In August it was 69-28.

Asylum requests in Mexico through January

Mexico’s refugee agency (COMAR) received nearly 13,000 requests for asylum in January, a pace that, if sustained for the entire year, would bring a record 154,000 asylum applications in Mexico’s system in 2023.

The number-one nationality of asylum applicants in January was Haiti, the nation that was also number one in 2021. Honduras was COMAR’s number-one asylum-seeking nationality in 2022 and prior years.

Here’s the table with this chart’s underlying data. Note that Afghanistan, for the first time, made the “top ten” in January with 430 asylum requests. Afghanistan was the number-nine nationality of migrants passing through Panama’s Darién Gap region in January (291 migrants reported by Panamanian authorities).

CBP Migrant Encounters at the U.S.-Mexico Border, by Country of Origin, October-December

In December, Cuba nearly surpassed Mexico as the number-one country of origin of migrants encountered at the US-Mexico border.

The largest increases in encountered migrants from October-December:

  • Ecuador 130%
  • China 120%
  • Russia (now 9th) 104%
  • “Other” 102%
  • Nicaragua 69%

The largest decreases:

  • Venezuela -63%
  • Mexico -27%
  • Haiti -24%

Here is the underlying data table going back to October 2019, using CBP’s dataset.

Migration Through Panama’s Darién Gap

248,284 people migrated through Panama’s once-impenetrable Darién Gap jungle region in 2022.

Here’s 2022 by month, showing a steep drop in Venezuelan migration (blue) after the Biden administration, in October, started using Title 42 to expel Venezuelan asylum seekers into Mexico.

Ecuador (green) has since been 1st among the ~40 nationalities migrating through Darién.

These are visualizations of data from Panama’s migration agency (click on the links with “Irregulares en Tránsito Frontera Panamá – Colombia”).

Migrant Encounters in Border Patrol’s El Paso Sector

For a second straight month, El Paso is the number-one sector for migrant encounters, among Border Patrol’s nine U.S.-Mexico border sectors. In March, El Paso was number five.

Nicaragua (dark gray, 15,305 migrants) was the number-one nationality in November. In October, number one was Venezuela (dark red, 17,807 migrants

Nationalities of migrants at the US-Mexico border, September to November

(For all countries whose citizens were encountered at least 1,000 times in a month):

  • Largest increases:
    • Ecuador +120%
    • Russia +110% (a record, Russia is now in the top 10)
    • Nicaragua +88% (a record)
    • Cuba +32% (second most in a month)
  • Largest decreases:
    • Venezuela -77% (a result of Title 42 being applied, as of mid-October, to expel Venezuelans into Mexico)
    • Brazil -59%
    • El Salvador -12%
    • Honduras -10%
  • Colombia is now #4.

Title 42 didn’t deter migration

It’s so perplexing that people are convinced that Title 42 slowed migration, and that its lifting will be a major change.

Here’s what happened to single-adult migrant encounters at the US-Mexico border after Title 42 went into effect. Not a deterrent, to say the least.

Title 42 did not similarly increase child and family migration over what came before. But it didn’t reduce it, either.

The 4 countries whose citizens could be expelled across the land border into Mexico? Title 42 slowed growth in their migration, though it remained high. But citizens of all other countries surpassed them since last summer.

Title 42 did NOT reduce US-bound migration of non-Mexicans through Mexico, which has hit all-time record levels.

Northbound migration through Panama’s treacherous Darién Gap was rare before Title 42, which did nothing to deter it.

By increasing incentives not to turn themselves in to US authorities, Title 42 probably contributed to today’s horrific amount of migrant deaths on US soil along the border.

Title 42 had no impact on drugs crossing the border. Fentanyl, for instance, is almost entirely seized at ports of entry (blue) and checkpoints (brown), it appears in most cases by US citizens.

If Title 42 ends, a short-term increase is likely. Asylum seekers from 5 countries subject to land-border expulsions into Mexico will finally have a chance to seek protection, after being bottled up for 33 months.

But don’t believe for a moment that Title 42 ever reduced migration.

(P.S.: These and other charts are at WOLA’s Border Oversight page.)

Denying the right to asylum led to fewer asylum seekers transiting Panama’s Darién Gap

Panama just posted November records of migration through the dangerous Darién Gap jungles that straddle its border with Colombia. The result is unsurprising. They show that denying protection to people, even as it violates international human rights standards, will keep them from trying to come, at least in the short term.

Migration through the Darién plummeted 72 percent from October to November. This was led by a 98 percent drop in migration from Venezuela.

That fewer people risked crossing through the Darién Gap should be good news: hundreds each year die, are attacked, and suffer sexual violence along this ungoverned 60-mile walk. But the reason for the decline is not a happy one.

On October 12, the U.S. and Mexican governments announced that any Venezuelan citizens encountered at the U.S.-Mexico border would be swiftly expelled back into Mexico, without even affording them the chance to seek asylum. That denial of asylum is usually illegal, but the U.S. government invoked the Title 42 pandemic authority, in place since March 2020. On November 15, a U.S. federal judge struck down Title 42, so the expulsions should stop by December 21.

For now, though, the Title 42 expansion forced a pause in U.S.-bound migration through the Darién Gap. For unclear reasons, November also saw declines in migration of citizens from Peru (-92%), Colombia (-87%), Cameroon (-44%), Afghanistan (-31%), the Dominican Republic (-30%), and Ecuador (-25%). Other countries increased, though: Nigeria (+56%), China (+38%), Haiti (+24%), India (+20), and Bangladesh (+18%).

Despite the November decline, 2022 is already the busiest year for migration in the history of the Darién Gap, which until recently was viewed as nearly impenetrable.

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