Adam Isacson

Defense, security, borders, migration, and human rights in Latin America and the United States. May not reflect my employer’s consensus view.

Archives

July 2017

Some articles I found interesting this morning

Federico Parra/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images photo at The Wall Street Journal. Caption: “People queue at polling stations Sunday at Carabobo Square in Caracas during an opposition-organized referendum on President Nicolás Maduro’s plan to rewrite the constitution.”

(Even more here)

July 17, 2017

Argentina

El jueves, ante Aguad, Macri admitió que Defensa está “en etapa de vacas flacas”

Brazil, Colombia, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Venezuela, Western Hemisphere Regional

A strong chain of justice, which would include specialized police officers and sufficient independent judges to deal with the volume of cases, would be the first steps

Colombia

Los cultivos de coca en Colombia sufrieron un fuerte incremento al pasar de 96.000 ha en 2015 a 146.000 ha en 2016. Esto representa un incremento del 52%

“Se podría analizar el impacto del glifosato en el pasado. ¿Realmente sirvió de algo y dio los resultados deseados? Yo creo que no. A mediano plazo siempre hubo resiembra en estas zonas”

El acuerdo de paz no es garantía de una reducción de la violencia y la criminalidad en el país. Sin embargo, las primeras evidencias demuestran que ha sido una estrategia efectiva para salvar vidas

Para el embajador Whitaker, el logro de la paz es algo que todo el mundo debe celebrar, comenzando por los propios colombianos

El director de la Agencia Central de Inteligencia de Estados Unidos, CIA, estuvo en Urabá conociendo detalles de la operación Agamenón 2, que busca desarticular la banda “Clan del Golfo”

Mexico

De acuerdo con los castrenses “esto”, la violencia, la gente descuartizada, los pueblos abandonados… se genera por la forma de actuar de los defensores de los derechos humanos, y de los funcionarios públicos

En Veracruz hay una deuda de verdad y justicia que reclaman miles de familiares de desaparecidos

The extradition of Joaquín ‘El Chapo’ Guzmán, Mexico’s long-dominant drug lord, has led to an explosion of violence in his home state of Sinaloa, the birthplace of the country’s narcotics industry

People who are trying to enter the U.S. illegally across the Mexican border often hide in the cane. It’s not a hospitable environment—the cane scratches and is difficult to walk through—but it is effective cover

The American perambulators enjoying their walk beside the wall would need only peek through it to see drug dealers loading up a medieval siege weapon, allowing them to hastily run for cover

El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico

Harsh migration enforcement tactics continue to violate the rights of not only migrants but also of Mexican border communities

Venezuela

As Venezuela falls further into turmoil, more of its citizens are leaving a country that once served as a haven

Between January and March, 8,301 Venezuelans requested asylum in the United States, nearly double the number in the same period of 2016

Opposition tactics may include lengthy road blockades and sit-ins, a national strike, or possibly even a march on the Miraflores presidential palace, similar to events before a short-lived coup against Maduro’s predecessor Hugo Chavez

Of the nearly 6.5 million who voted inside of Venezuela on Sunday, 98% rejected the government’s proposal

Whatever the actual numbers say, the optics of a large turnout, especially in longtime Chavista areas in the Western part of Caracas will perhaps be more important

Western Hemisphere Regional

My research on police reform in Latin America shows that such reforms are highly vulnerable to political reversals

The day ahead: July 17, 2017

I should be reachable during the afternoon hours. (How to contact me)

I’m back from vacation and jumping back in to work. Over the next few weeks, my daughter will be at a day camp farther from here. The longer commute has changed my schedule around a bit. I won’t post news clips to this site until later in the day. Instead, I’m devoting the early morning hours to writing.

As a result, earlier today I wrote most of an upcoming analysis of the Trump administration’s $100m request to hire more Border Patrol agents. Now I’m in the office, where I’ve got a staff meeting and a pile of administrative things to attend to. During the afternoon I’ll post a news update and add a bunch of clips to my defense oversight database.

The week ahead

I’m back from vacation. The transition has been smooth so far, in part because I paid too much attention to work while I was out.

I’m here in Washington all week, and I expect to focus mainly, but not exclusively, on border security work. The Homeland Security appropriations bill is in committee in the House tomorrow. While we’ve done all we can to influence the outcome, the Republican majority that drafts the bill is going to accede to the White House’s wishes. This is an opportunity to make noise and strategize for next steps. Expect a written analysis this week.

The House will also mark up the foreign aid bill on Wednesday, so we’ll probably have some analysis of that done as well. The bill will not cut foreign aid as drastically as the Trump administration wants, but the House bill still calls for some painful steps that we can hopefully avoid later in the legislative process.

I also hope to finish a memo on U.S.-Colombia relations following the theme of the podcast I recorded last week. And to do a lot of research. It’s nice to be back on the job.

Latin America-related events in Washington this week

Monday, July 17

Tuesday, July 18

Wednesday, July 19

Thursday, July 20

  • 8:30–10:30 at the Inter-American Dialogue: US-Mexico Relations in Flux (RSVP required).
  • 10:30–12:00 at CSIS: The Dangers of the Looming Constituent Assembly in Venezuela: Why the International Community Must Act (RSVP required).

Friday, July 21

  • 8:30 at the Atlantic Council: Venezuela on the Edge: The Time for New International Action (RSVP required).

5 tweets that made me laugh this week

Five links from the past week

The police in Río de Janeiro have already killed almost 500 people in the first five months of 2017. They’re also dying at a stunning rate. A security situation that had made promising improvements is now in free-fall, and the cops aren’t up to it. See also the Igarapé Foundation’s anguished analysis, also in Spanish, of the spike in violence.

Most valuable here are the many quotes from current and former DEA personnel. “‘All the cables out of headquarters, all the intelligence reports, were focused on Chapo,’ the former field agent says. ‘The bosses in D.C. were like, ‘We’ve never heard of [CJNG].’ They didn’t think they were important.’” For a more positive look at security in Mexico, Patrick McDonnell in the Los Angeles Times profiles the successful and disciplined self-defense organizations of Cherán, Michoacán.

  • Catalina Lobo-Guerrero, La Transicion (La Silla Vacia (Colombia), July 10, 2017).

A thoughtful profile of FARC members in a Cauca disarmament zone. It carefully looks at the tension between ex-fighters’ desire to keep following the organization’s orders, and their desire to pursue their own ambitions.

Video interviews, graphics, and well-researched narrative in this view of the current situation in northern Antioquia’s coca-rich Bajo Cauca region. The Urabeños organized crime group is dominant here.

The Venezuelan pro-opposition analyst and civil-military relations expert is pessimistic. She sees Nicolás Maduro as a “transitional figure.” Real power is accruing in the armed forces. The result is a 70% probability of “perpetual government” under the current regime. If that happens, San Miguel sees the military dominating Chavismo’s civilian remnants.

Some articles I found interesting this morning

Leonardo Benassatto / Reuters photo at The Wall Street Journal. Caption: “Supporters of former Brazilian President President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva protested in Sao Paulo on Thursday against his conviction on corruption charges.”

(Even more here)

July 14, 2017

Brazil

The Workers’ Party and Lula have a lot to answer to those they claim to represent. But Lula’s ruin is not, as some couch revelers suggest, an invitation to an out-of-season carnival

The theme of unfair judicial interference has given staunch political rivals common ground

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva lived up to an old Brazilian saying, “rouba mas faz”—“he steals, but he gets things done”

Colombia

Frente al asesinato de Amaya, Mauricio Jaramillo, uno de los jefes de las Farc, insistió en que se trata de una “arremetida paramilitar”

InSide Colombia’s BACRIM features video interviews with five current or former members of the Bajo Cauca BACRIM

La cifra fue entregada por el defensor del Pueblo, Carlos Alfonso Negret, quien señaló, que la cifra de muertos, desde enero de 2016, asciende a 186

Los municipios mencionados en el panfleto son Dabeiba, Buriticá, Anzá y Armenia Mantequilla, a quienes les ordenan cesar sus actividades económicas, laborales y académicas

Mexico

De acuerdo con el juez, el soldado tenía derecho a disparar, pues se encontraba emocionalmente alterado y en un “escenario de guerra”, además de que, señaló, los policías son “incapaces y corruptos”

“You have mountains. You have some rivers that are violent and vicious. You have some areas that are so far away that you don’t really have people crossing. So you don’t need that”

Venezuela

Opposition leaders are betting that a mass repudiation of Mr. Maduro’s plan will undermine its legitimacy

Some articles I found interesting this morning

(Even more here)

July 13, 2017

Brazil

The former president of Brazil, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, was found guilty of corruption and money laundering on Wednesday and sentenced to nearly 10 years in prison

Former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the front-runner for next year’s presidential election, was sentenced to almost a decade in prison for corruption, dealing a heavy blow to his leftist Workers’ Party

Public opinion remains firmly behind Lava Jato. That is why efforts to scotch it are unlikely to succeed

It’s hard not to see in Moro’s words at least a trace of the deference to power, and instinctive preference for compromise, that has long characterized Brazilian political culture – and may ultimately be Lula’s salvation

Colombia

La Misión de la ONU en Colombia ha logrado recopilar información sobre los sectores de ubicación de 660 caletas, y se completó el planeamiento de 456 para su extracción

Diferentes organizaciones sociales no están de acuerdo con las metodologías y los alcances de las investigaciones

Cuba, Venezuela

Venezuela’s crude and fuel deliveries to Cuba have slid almost 13 percent in the first half this year, according to documents from state-run oil company PDVSA viewed by Reuters, threatening to worsen gasoline and power shortages in the communist-run island

Guatemala

There are currently at least 307 active mining licences in Guatemala, mainly in rural indigenous regions, according to Ministry of Energy and Mines (MEM) figures. Almost 600 more are under consideration

Honduras

We are particularly alarmed that the OIGs found that DEA and INL officials repeatedly and knowingly misled Members of Congress and congressional staff. We request that you provide us with a detailed written account of the steps that you intend to take

Mexico

The contractor says he has never seen a bidding process so chaotic and rudderless as this one

$1.6 billion for physical barrier construction along the Southern border – including bollards and levee improvements – meeting the full White House request

Venezuela

Transferring Lopez to house arrest was not, as the government has insisted, merely a procedural matter that illustrates the health of checks and balances in Venezuela

Western Hemisphere Regional

In some cases, the complaint alleges, CBP officials have told people that “Donald Trump just signed new laws saying there is no asylum for anyone.”

Lawyers and charity groups working on the border documented an uptick in turn-backs and other irregularities with this process beginning in the summer of 2016, and it appeared to worsen after the election

The past week in U.S. border security

Nick Oza photo at The Arizona Republic. Caption: “Hundreds of people came to attend the Mass held on Oct. 8, 2016, by Bishop José Leopoldo González González, during an anniversary vigil for José Antonio Elena Rodríguez, who was shot and killed by the Border Patrol on Internacional Street in Nogales, Sonora, in 2012.”

  • The House Appropriations Subcommittee on Homeland Security has drafted its piece of the 2018 budget. The subcommittee’s draft version grants the Trump administration’s full $1.6 billion request (PDF) to build or replace 74 miles of border wall. It also grants the White House request of $100 million to hire new agents.
  • House Republican hard-liners are already threatening to vote against any budget that doesn’t include the border wall money. Democrats have vowed to oppose it. This could set the stage for a government shutdown after the fiscal year ends on September 30. More likely, though, would be a “continuing resolution” keeping the budget at 2017 levels (with no wall funding) through 2018, Bloomberg speculates.
  • Mexico has received 5,464 asylum applications between January and May, outpacing the record 8,794 applications filed in 2016. Nearly all applicants are people fleeing violence in El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras. “Belize, Costa Rica and Panama also saw a rise to more than 4,300 refugee applications last year,” the AP reports.
  • The Kino Border Initiative (KBI), based in Nogales, Arizona and Nogales, Mexico, is a Jesuit-run organization that advocates for migrants’ rights. It files complaints with U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) on behalf of migrants who say they were mistreated or denied rights while in the agency’s custody. The CBP complaints system is badly broken, KBI documents in a new report. Of 49 complaints filed over an 18-month period, only 13 have resulted in a “finding.”
  • The murder trial of Border Patrol agent Lonnie Swartz continues. Prosecutors accuse Swartz of firing 16 shots through the Nogales border fence into Mexico, killing 16-year-old Jose Antonio Elena Rodriguez. They are conceding that Elena Rodriguez was probably throwing rocks at the agents before the shooting. (At the site, which I have visited, Elena would have been throwing the rocks over an 18-foot fence that sits atop a ridge at least 10 feet high.) Video shows Swartz firing 13 of the 16 shots after Elena was already on the ground.
  • A new Texas law requires police to inquire about the immigration status of everyone they arrest, and to report undocumented people to federal authorities. The law may harm relations with Mexico, a Washington Post story reports.

Some articles I found interesting this morning

Mario Tama/Getty Images photo at The New York Times. Caption: “La Policía Militar entra a una favela luego de un prolongado tiroteo en el barrio Copacabana, en Río de Janeiro, el 12 de junio de 2017. Un joven de 19 años murió y una mujer resultó herida por el fuego cruzado entre los agentes y los pandilleros.”

(Even more here)

July 12, 2017

Brazil

I found another job that is even more heartbreaking: the United Nations special rapporteur

Sus agentes son los que más matan en Brasil (casi 500 casos en los primeros cinco meses de este año) pero también son los que sufren más bajas en ese país

Colombia

Son contados los profesionales que se dedican a estudiarla en el escritorio y en el terreno. Uno de ellos es Daniel Mauricio Rico Valencia

En dos históricas sentencias, este alto tribunal condena al Ministerio de Defensa por casos de ejecuciones extrajudiciales y lo exhorta a que no malinterprete más este marco jurídico internacional

El ministro del Interior, Guillermo Rivera, reportó esta disminución, según la cual en junio pasado fueron asesinados dos líderes, mientras que en abril habían muerto de manera violenta cinco y en mayo, tres

Según el informe de Medicina Legal, los homicidios por todo tipo de causas en Colombia también siguen una tendencia a la baja y mientras que en 2015 ocurrieron 11.585 asesinatos, en 2016 se registraron 11.532 (0,4% menos)

Haiti

For much of Haiti’s history, the army has been used to crack down on political dissent by a series of authoritarian presidents

Mexico

Such blatant abuse of dangerous technology warrants another international investigation. Mr. Peña Nieto has said he would welcome outside help; this time he should mean it

En promedio ganan 31.3 pesos la hora y trabajan 65.4 horas a la semana, lo que da un total de 2,047 pesos semanales

With El Chapo behind bars, an even more dangerous drug lord has emerged. On the hunt for Mexico’s next-generation narco

With Republican leaders wary of a shutdown, the clash over the border wall is more likely to lead to a stopgap spending bill in September that may end up putting the government on autopilot for a year

Democrats have already signaled they would oppose any funding bill that includes money for the wall

$1.6 billion for physical barrier construction along the Southern border – including bollards and levee improvements – meeting the full White House request

Here, AQ looks at the extent of Mexico and the United States’ economic and demographic connections

Despite some progress in improving the complaint process, KBI found that most complaints were only investigated by management at the local level and not by the independent oversight bodies tasked with accountability

Paraguay

“El EPP se presenta como proveedora de servicios públicos, reemplazando al Estado. Va captando a la gente con solidaridad; crea afinidad y relaciones estrechas”

Peru

La Fiscalía de Perú pidió este martes la prisión preventiva del expresidente Ollanta Humala y su esposa Nadine Heredia, por los presuntos delitos de lavado de activos y asociación ilícita vinculados al caso Odebrecht

Venezuela

Cabrera denounced government corruption in Venezuela and the death threats on his family that prompted him to pay bribes, and he expressed support for the protesters

Advirtió que se mantendrá en el cargo aun si la máxima corte la destituye como parte de un juicio planteado por el oficialismo

The secret effort by Mr. Zapatero and others had been going on for months

The past week in U.S. policy toward Latin America

Carlos Barria photo at Reuters. Caption: “U.S. President Donald Trump meets Mexico’s President Enrique Pena Nieto during the their bilateral meeting at the G20 summit in Hamburg, Germany July 7, 2017.”

  • U.S. Southern Command’s Special Forces component will be holding its annual “Fuerzas Comando” military exercise next week. This year’s exercise will take place in Paraguay. It is a contest: teams of elite troops from several countries compete in a series of events. Colombia usually wins.
  • Mexico’s Army and Marines hosted U.S. Homeland Security Secretary John Kelly on a visit to the embattled state of Guerrero. In the state’s impoverished highlands, they demonstrated eradication of poppy, the plant used to make heroin. They used manual eradication and aerial spraying. (Mexico is the only country in Latin America that uses aircraft to spray herbicides on drug crops. Colombia stopped the practice in 2015. The annual amount of spraying is much smaller than Colombia’s was.)
  • The next day in Hamburg, Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto and U.S. President Donald Trump met on the sidelines of the G–20 meeting. Reuters reports: “In response to a shouted question from a reporter about whether he still wants Mexico to pay for the border wall, which aims to keep out illegal immigrants, Trump said, ‘Absolutely.’”
  • The governor of Florida, Rick Scott (R), wants to pass a law prohibiting the state government, including its retirement fund, from doing business with any organization that does business with Venezuela’s regime. “The proposal could force the state to stop doing business with Goldman Sachs,” notes the Tampa Bay Times.

The past week in Colombia’s peace process

Photo from La Silla Vacía (Colombia). Caption: “Los guerrilleros construyen un puesto de salud para la comunidad del resguardo de Pueblo Nuevo, en el sitio que era la “recepción” de la zona veredal.”

  • The UN Security council unanimously authorized (PDF) a new political mission to Colombia. It will oversee reintegration of ex-FARC members, as well as security of ex-combatants and conflict-affected communities. It will start work on September 26, and will have a renewable one-year mandate. A good El Espectador analysis summarizes some of the main challenges the mission will face, and some of the main concerns about its role.
  • 7,400 former FARC members have now been amnestied of political crimes (sedition, disturbance, carrying illegal weapons, etc.). About 2,700 more still await political amnesty.
  • Colombia’s Constitutional Court has begun reviewing the constitutional amendment setting up the transitional justice system that will judge serious war crimes. The amendment was mandated by the FARC peace accords and passed by Colombia’s Congress earlier this year. The Court may alter or strike down elements of what Congress passed. A decision may take weeks or even months. Human Rights Watch has published suggested changes.
  • A National University of Colombia survey of 10,015 demobilizing FARC members reveals a wealth of data, much of it surprising. Twenty-three percent are women, sixty-six percent are from rural areas, and fifty-four percent have at least one child. See an overview (PDF) of the study, an infographic from Semana magazine, and an overview in El Tiempo.
  • Colombia’s government continues signing agreements with coca-growing families. These promise support in exchange for voluntary eradication of their illicit crops. Twenty-nine collective, regional accords are being translated into specific accords with individual communities. A report from the Ideas for Peace Foundation think-tank raises 10 issues that implementation of the plan so far has raised. (La Silla Vacía summarizes the report and includes responses from the Colombian government’s “crop substitution” coordinator.) La Silla Vacía also takes a look at the Catatumbo coca-growing region. It finds that farmers’ organizations are becoming divided over how to respond to the government’s offer.
  • An Oxfam study of land census data finds that 0.1 percent of farms now control 60 percent of land in Colombia.
  • FARC leader Rodrigo Londoño alias “Timochenko” is in Cuba recovering from a stroke.
  • A dissident FARC group in the southern department of Guaviare released Herley López, an official of the UN Office on Drugs and Crime. The group had kidnapped López in early May.

Podcast: “U.S.-Colombia Relations ‘in a Challenged Place'”

It’s nice to put one of these out again, for the first time in 2 1/2 months.

Relations between the United States and close ally Colombia have hit their roughest patch in years. The situation is aggravated by the Trump administration’s much darker view of the FARC peace accord, and open disagreement about how to deal with coca eradication. Messages from Washington, meanwhile, have been confusingly mixed. A better-briefed Secretary of State could deal with this more effectively, but that doesn’t seem to be Rex Tillerson’s style.

Some articles I found interesting this morning

(Even more here)

July 11, 2017

Brazil

According to the Pastoral Land Commission, a not-for-profit group, 45 people have been murdered this year in land conflicts, compared to 61 in the whole of 2016

Después de una exitosa reducción en la tasa de homicidios de más del 40% entre 2008 y 2015, hoy el panorama en Río es muy deprimente y no se ve una solución rápida con el horizonte político tan convulsionado

Colombia

El censo socioeconómico que la Universidad Nacional realizó a 10.015 excombatientes revela el enorme desafío que plantea la reincorporación de una guerrilla profundamente campesina, de baja escolaridad, de bajo arraigo familiar y con secuelas de conflicto, pero con grandes esperanzas de futuro

A British-drafted resolution establishes the United Nations Verification Mission in Colombia for an initial period of one year starting on Sept. 17

Los anuncios de la plata que llegaría por la sustitución de la coca y la inversión en infraestructura a la vez que llenó de esperanza a muchos, provocó toda una pugna de poder entre líderes campesinos

Esta nueva misión se centrará en el acompañamiento a la integración en la sociedad de los exguerrilleros, incluyendo los temas de seguridad

La operación, que se centrará en el acompañamiento a la integración en la sociedad de los exguerrilleros, arranca oficialmente el próximo 26 de septiembre

Mexico

Without any major crime in Cheran, local officials handle minor offenses such as theft, drunk-driving and disorderly conduct, typically imposing sentences of community service

Meadows—the chairman of the most influential group of House conservatives in Congress, the House Freedom Caucus—said that there are enough members in Congress to hold the line against any funding bill that does not explicitly provide for the beginning of construction

The fact that Elena Rodriguez was throwing rocks complicates the case for prosecutors because they must prove that the rocks thrown by the teenager were not a deadly threat

Honduras, Mexico

Edwin Rivera Paz was shot to death Sunday in the town of Acayucan

Venezuela

The Left outside Venezuela can help rebuild the movement by participating in an honest accounting of what went wrong

Bringing Leopoldo López home shows something that has been entirely absent from talks until now: a real willingness to make significant concessions

El oficial fue acusado por la oposición de permitir el ingreso de colectivos chavistas al Palacio Legislativo

The move facilitates the government’s ability to remove Luisa Ortega Díaz from the Attorney General’s office

Luisa Ortega, Venezuela’s lead prosecutor and main challenger to Maduro from within the ruling socialist movement, has said she is expecting to be fired after alleging human rights abuses and erosion of democracy

Links From the Last Month About: Civil-Military Relations in Latin America

Marco Bello photo for Reuters. Caption: “Soldiers march during a military parade to celebrate the 206th anniversary of Venezuela’s independence in Caracas, Venezuela, July 5, 2017.”

Argentina

  • Outgoing Defense Minister Julio Martínez alleged that the previous governments of Néstor Kirchner and Cristina Fernández so neglected the country’s air force that “over a hundred [aircraft] went out of service or were decommissioned.”

Brazil

  • Brazilian Army soldiers, long tasked with guarding the country’s 10,400-mile land border, are increasingly being used as police. “During the past year, soldiers have spent nearly 100 days patrolling city streets—double the number from the previous nine years combined,” according to an Economist report with an interesting map.

Colombia

  • The chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court in The Hague has notified Colombia that she has her eye on 23 active and retired generals, and 6 colonels, who may bear responsibility for extrajudicial executions. The list, based on cases in five regions, includes the current chief of the armed forces, Gen. Juan Pablo Rodríguez.
  • The mayor of Antioquia, Colombia—the department (province) whose capital is Medellín—is moving forward with a proposal to install retired army colonels as “vice-mayors” of historically conflictive towns. Local human rights groups are opposing the idea.

Cuba

  • American University’s William Leogrande takes down the claim—repeated by proponents of the Trump administration’s tightening of commerce with Cuba—that the Cuban military controls 60 percent of the country’s economy. “Sectors in which the military has little or no participation easily comprise more than half of GDP, and in the other sectors, there are civilian as well as military-controlled firms.”

Ecuador

  • 3,000 members of Ecuador’s armed forces have been deployed to play an anti-crime role in the western provinces of Guayas, Manabí, and Los Ríos. They are mostly searching vehicles at road checkpoints, looking for weapons or other signs of organized crime activity.

Guatemala

  • At NACLA, David Unger summarizes a surprising book by an active-duty Guatemalan colonel. Col. Edgar Rubio Castañeda’s “Desde el Cuartel” (From the Barracks) is a blistering critique of the country’s inequality, the oligarchy that benefits from it, and the military’s role in propping it up.

Mexico

  • Top brass in Mexico’s armed forces have been issuing pointed messages about ethics in politics. Defense Minister Gen. Salvador Cienfuegos called for more effort against corruption and impunity, which he said have “damaged our society.” Navy Minister Adm. Vidal Soberón said that human rights violations are “contrary to every definition of our reason for being” and “will never be tolerated.” However, the investigative website Animal Político reported that prosecutors failed to act on at least five anonymous tips that a local Army captain was tied to the drug-trafficking group (Guerreros Unidos) that massacred 43 students in Iguala, Mexico in September 2014.

Venezuela

  • At least 123 members of all branches of Venezuela’s armed forces have been detained since daily anti-government protests began in April. According to Reuters, “nearly 30 members of the military have been detained for deserting or abandoning their post and almost 40 for rebellion, treason, or insubordination.” The majority are being held in the Ramo Verde military prison where opposition leader Leopoldo López was interned until this past weekend.
  • From his cell, López recorded a video urging military personnel to “rebel” against orders to repress protesters. Opposition leader and former presidential candidate Henrique Capriles said that “an air of change” can be felt within Venezuela’s armed forces, but not the National Guard. “A very important decision is coming from the components of our armed forces,” Capriles added.

Some articles I found interesting this morning

(Even more here)

July 10, 2017

Brazil, Western Hemisphere Regional

Latin America may not offer a model of sustainable development, but compared with Asia it is relatively unscarred in terms of overpopulation and pollution, and compared with the US and Europe

Colombia

  • Catalina Lobo-Guerrero, La Transicion (La Silla Vacia (Colombia), July 10, 2017).

Ciertas costumbres son difíciles de cambiar y ese domingo, a la madrugada, los guerrilleros forman filas en dos hileras. Ya no tienen armas

Son 29 altos oficiales, entre ellos el actual comandante de las FF. MM. y tres excomandantes del Ejército

The latest census data show that 0.1 percent of farms are now over 2,000 hectares in size and control 60 percent of land, while 81 percent of farms have an average of only 2 hectares and occupy less than 5 percent of land

La primera duda es si tres años serán suficientes para verificar garantías de seguridad tan complejas como la lucha contra el crimen organizado

Colombia, Venezuela

With or without a warm welcome, the Venezuelans keep coming. With Colombian authorities estimating 100,000 have settled in Colombia so far this year

Mexico

The main contact person for the group of investigators received text messages laced with spyware known as Pegasus

Los detenidos fueron recluidos en el Centro de Ejecución de Sanciones de Nuevo Laredo, donde Los Zetas mandan y los guardias están a su servicio

A massive gunbattle this week is part of an outbreak in drug violence in Chihuahua, including a spike in killings in Juárez

El Gobierno del priista Quirino Ordaz Coppel lleva seis meses en el poder y la cifra de homicidios en Sinaloa ya rebasó la de todo 2016

Venezuela

Of all the demands that the opposition and the international community have placed on Maduro, releasing López was perhaps the easiest

Diría que hay un movimiento estratégico del gobierno para bajar la presión, quizás como consecuencia de los eventos absolutamente violentos y primitivos que sucedieron

Latin America-related events in Washington this week

Tuesday, July 11

  • 10:00–11:30 at the Brookings Institution: A blueprint for maximizing the impact of U.S. foreign aid (RSVP required).

Wednesday, July 12

5 tweets that made me laugh this week

Mid-vacation readings

The first half of 2017 has been “productive.” I’ve been to Colombia once and Mexico twice (and Guatemala for a couple of hours). I’ve made two big reports with colleagues, about 20 shorter commentaries, 10 podcasts, and lots of posts on this site. I’ve had over 30 meetings with congressional staff, and spoken to several audiences here in Washington. And of course there’ve been hundreds of tweets, for what they’re worth.

But how strategic has it all been? The past six months have been the most alarming time, politically, in my life. As the “day ahead” posts on this site often show, my days are often booked up completely. At this tumultuous time, am I filling my hours with the “right” things, toward the right objectives?

We all have to ask questions like these. I find I’m doing a lot of that here at the midpoint of my two-week vacation.

In the process, I’ve enjoyed reading (or re-reading) these online articles, which all try to get at the question of “am I using my time right.” They’re all well-written and inspiring. I hope you enjoy them too.

“I think the way to ‘solve’ the problem of procrastination is to let delight pull you instead of making a to-do list push you. Work on an ambitious project you really enjoy, and sail as close to the wind as you can, and you’ll leave the right things undone.” See also the excellent essay “Maker’s Schedule, Manager’s Schedule.”

“[M]akers should aim to have at least six chunks of three-plus hours of uninterrupted work time on their calendar every week. This averages out to one three-hour block every day (either an entire morning or afternoon), plus a no-meeting day with two such blocks.”

“I argue that we need to spend more time engaged in deep work — cognitively demanding activities that leverage our training to generate rare and valuable results, and that push our abilities to continually improve.”

“Now, because it takes some time for your mind to quiet down it’s absolutely no use arranging a ‘space/time oasis’ lasting 30 minutes, because just as you’re getting quieter and getting into the open mode you have to stop and that is very deeply frustrating. So you must allow yourself a good chunk of time. I’d suggest about an hour and a half. Then after you’ve gotten to the open mode, you’ll have about an hour left for something to happen, if you’re lucky.”

“When I sit down at my desk in the morning, it’s time to write. There is hot coffee to the left of my keyboard. My keyboard, well, it’s about as clicky and awesome as they come. I put in my earbuds, hit play on the soundtrack, and set a 30 minute timer. My phone is in Do Not Disturb mode. So is my computer. The outside world can wait. For the next half hour I’m pushing the cursor.”

“Four quiet hours is a resource that I can put to good use. Two slabs of time, each two hours long, might add up to the same four hours, but are not nearly as productive as an unbroken four. If I know that I am going to be interrupted, I can’t concentrate, and if I suspect that I might be interrupted, I can’t do anything at all.”

“Distraction and displacement seem innocent on the surface. How can we be harming ourselves by having fun, or seeking romance, or enjoying the fruits of this big, beautiful world? But lives go down the tubes one repetition at a time, one deflection at a time, one hundred and forty characters at a time.”

“[T]here’s a difference between amateurs who are muddling their way through, doing what they feel like, looking for inspiration, and maybe doing good work. And professionals who show up and do the work. A pro golfer practices even if it’s cold and rainy. A pro psychologist is able to empathize with a patient even when they don’t feel like it. A pro trainer or coach is able to do the work and have the difficult conversation because it’s their job.”

“Yes, online and automated life is more efficient, it makes more economic sense, it ends monotony and ‘wasted’ time in the achievement of practical goals. But it denies us the deep satisfaction and pride of workmanship that comes with accomplishing daily tasks well, a denial perhaps felt most acutely by those for whom such tasks are also a livelihood—and an identity.”

  • Better” by Merlin Mann.

“I want to become an evangelist for hard work and editing, and I want to get to a place where it shows in everything that I do, make, and share. Yes, even if it makes me sound like a fancy guy who just doesn’t get it. Fuck it. So, yes. I am cutting way back on trips to the steam table of half-finished, half-useful, half-ideas that I both make and consume.”

And here’s my one public foray into this sort of wooly “how to do your work better” writing: a Medium piece I wrote after having lunch with WOLA’s interns in 2013.

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