» 2019 » January

January 31, 2019 — 0

Some articles I found interesting this morning

January 31, 2019

Western Hemisphere Regional

Nancy A. Youssef, “Pentagon Sending More Than 3,500 Additional Troops to Mexico Border” (The Wall Street Journal, January 31, 2019).

More than 3,500 active-duty troops will be sent to the border, according to a letter written by Rep. Adam Smith (D., Wash.), chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, in which he slammed Department of Defense officials for not disclosing the figure during a hearing

Rep. Adam Smith (D-Washington), “Smith Letter to Shanahan Regarding Transparency With Congress” (U.S. House of Representatives, January 31, 2019).

The Members of the Committee would have been extremely interested in discussing what the 3,500 troops going to the border in response to DHS’s latest request will be doing there. This is a violation of the executive branch’s obligation to be transparent with Congress

“Detailed Summary of House Democrats’ Opening Offer in Conference Negotiations” (The Washington Post, January 31, 2019).

PDF document

Garance Burke, Martha Mendoza, “Ice Force-Feeding Detainees on Hunger Strike” (Associated Press, Associated Press, January 31, 2019).

The men with nasal tubes are having persistent nose bleeds, and are vomiting several times a day

Colombia

“El General Leonardo Barrero Ya No Es el Director del Plan para Proteger a Lideres Sociales” (El Espectador (Colombia), January 31, 2019).

El gobierno defendió al oficial y lo mantuvo como un enlace de dicho plan con la fuerza pública

“Gobierno No Negociara Liberaciones de Secuestrados: Comisionado de Paz al Eln” (El Espectador (Colombia), January 31, 2019).

El comisionado de Paz, Miguel Ceballos, quien en este diálogo con El Espectador reafirma la posición del Estado colombiano; entrega detalles sobre hasta qué punto llegaron sus contactos con Pablo Beltrán, dice que las llaves para una nueva negociación no se han tirado al mar

““Son Estructuras de la Ultraderecha”: Congresistas y Aspirantes Amenazados por las Aguilas Negras” (Semana (Colombia), January 31, 2019).

“Ni el gobierno ni la Fiscalía nos ha explicado en qué consiste, no sabemos quiénes son los comandantes, cuál es su estructura (de las Águilas Negras), en donde operan. No sabemos si en realidad es una organización”

Colombia, Venezuela

“Embajador en Washington Dice Que Estados Unidos Va por Maduro” (El Tiempo (Colombia), January 31, 2019).

Santos, quien se encuentra en Bogotá, le dijo a La W Radio que Estados Unidos podría realizar una acción parecida a la que ejecutó en diciembre de 1989 para deponer al dictador Panameño Manuel Antonio Noriega

Colombia

“Duque se Reunio Con Matthew Whitaker, Fiscal (e) de Estados Unidos” (El Tiempo (Colombia), January 31, 2019).

El fortalecimiento de la cooperación judicial y la lucha para que Venezuela vuelva a la democracia fueron los temas principales de la reunión entre el presidente Iván Duque y Matthew Whitaker

Colombia, Cuba

Julia Symmes Cobb, “Colombia’s Eln Rebel Leaders Say They Will Not Leave Cuba” (Reuters, Reuters, January 31, 2019).

“(The government) has declined to participate in the creation of a return plan for the ELN delegation and because of that it will not be possible to return within the expected time,” a statement from the 10 negotiators said

El Salvador

“A Charismatic Populist Aims for el Salvador’s Presidency” (The Economist (Uk), January 31, 2019).

The rise of Mr Bukele has been unorthodox. Rallies and interviews are rare but tweets are plentiful from the 37-year-old former businessman, in a campaign relying heavily on social media

Guatemala

Jo-Marie Burt, “¿Quienes se Benefician Con la Amnistia?” (Plaza Publica (Guatemala), January 31, 2019).

Según las modificaciones de la propuesta de ley, todos los exoficiales, comisionados, patrulleros e incluso guerrilleros serían liberados dentro de las 24 horas de su promulgación

Guatemala, Mexico

Cole Kazdin, “Guatemala’s ‘Slow-Motion Coup’ Is Causing Migrants to Flee to the Us” (VICE, January 31, 2019).

The underlying problem of migrants fleeing instability and violence in countries like Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador—some of which has been stoked by US foreign policy—isn’t going away

Mexico

Elvia Diaz, “Historic Fentanyl Bust Undermines Trump’s Border Wall” (The Arizona Republic, January 31, 2019).

Guess where federal officials carried out this huge fentanyl bust? At the Nogales border-crossing in Arizona. Yes, a port of entry, not somewhere over a border fence in the barren desert

Adam Taylor, “Trump’s Tweets on Mexico’s Rising Murder Rate Conflict With His New Asylum Policy” (The Washington Post, January 31, 2019).

In McAllen, the Texas city that lies just across the border crossing from Reynosa, there were no homicides in 2018, and crime is at its lowest rate in 34 years

“Report on U.S. Cbp’s Use of Chemical Agents on Migrants at the Us-Mexico Border January 2019” (American Friends Service Committee, January 31, 2019).

This report provides an account from the perspective of migrants that were present and affected by the events that unfolded on the evening of December 31, 2018 and the early morning hours of January 1, 2019 at the Tijuana-San Diego border, near Playas de Tijuana, where Border Patrol Agents fired chemical agents at migrants

Marcela Turati, “Laboratorio Contra el Olvido” (Proceso (Mexico), January 31, 2019).

Cada dos días en el país se localiza en promedio una fosa clandestina con restos humanos. Aunque lenta por su complejidad, esta labor va dando resultados que brinda algo de alivio a los familiares de personas desaparecidas

Andrea Guerrero, “Asylum Seekers Are Being Set Up to Fail — and the Consequences Could Be Deadly” (Alliance San Diego, January 31, 2019).

Under the protocol, asylum seekers have to meet this burden alone, upon entry, without the benefit of legal counsel, and without the due process protections that come with court proceedings

Kate Linthicum, “Meth and Murder: A New Kind of Drug War Has Made Tijuana One of the Deadliest Cities on Earth” (The Los Angeles Times, January 31, 2019).

In the past, the body count was driven by powerful drug cartels battling over lucrative trafficking routes to the United States. Now the main cause is competition in a growing local drug trade, with low-level dealers sometimes dying over the right to sell drugs on a single street corner

Venezuela

“Venezuela’s Failed Revolution May Itself Be Overthrown” (The Economist (Uk), January 31, 2019).

As Venezuelans turned against him, his power came to depend on a patronage network of enchufados, or “plugged-in people”, especially in the security forces. He has appointed over 2,000 officers to the rank of general or equivalent

Amanda Taub, Max Fisher, “Venezuela’s ‘Legitimacy’ Dispute Hides a Deeper Conflict” (The New York Times, January 31, 2019).

The protesters who filled the streets of Caracas last week, and Mr. Guaidó, are portraying Mr. Maduro as illegitimate. But for now, Mr. Guaidó has not convinced enough of the power brokers that he is a credible alternative

“Ue Anuncia un Grupo de Contacto Con America Latina para la Crisis Venezuela” (EFE, El Nuevo Herald, January 31, 2019).

“El grupo ayudará a construir confianza y crear las condiciones necesarias para un proceso creíble en línea de la Constitución de Venezuela, con el objetivo de que los venezolanos determinen su propio futuro con nuevas elecciones, con todas las garantías”

January 31, 2019 — 0

Here’s a Better Way to Spend $5.7 Billion at the Border

I wrote this yesterday while watching the House-Senate Conference Committee meet to discuss a border spending package that might keep the government open after February 15 (and avoid a disastrous presidential “national emergency” declaration to build a border wall).

The gist: border security isn’t “solved,” but what’s needed now is adjustments, not a sweeping, pharaonic project like a border wall. If Congress is going to send a bill to the president with $5.7 billion in new border-security spending, there are so many things that the money could be better spent on. I list some in this commentary that WOLA posted today.

And what about a wall? I think this is one of the clearest ways I’ve put it so far:

Trump is pushing for a “border wall,” or at least steel fencing—354 miles of which already exists along the border. Fences have a purpose: they slow down border-crossers for a few minutes. That doesn’t matter if the border-crosser is an asylum seeker who simply wants to climb over and get apprehended by U.S. authorities (perhaps after being turned away from an overwhelmed port of entry). It also doesn’t matter in rural areas, where a few-minute head start makes little difference since populated areas and main roads are hours’ walk away. Meanwhile, most densely populated areas along the border now have high pedestrian fencing.

In a normal presidential administration, we’d have a rational conversation about areas along the border where law enforcement professionals might say “some more barrier there would make my job easier.” Then, there would be orderly discussions with border communities, in which all stakeholders (property owners, Native American communities, local government, businesses, environmental organizations, migrant rights advocates) work out the design and placement.

But we’re not in a normal administration. Instead, this president’s rhetoric has made “the wall,” in the words of New York Times columnist Jamelle Bouie, “a lasting reminder of the white racial hostility surging through this moment in American history.” We cannot support building even a mile of new barrier under these circumstances—denying a voice to border communities and characterizing the “wall” as a means to keep out “rapists” and “animals” from Latin America.

Read the whole thing here.

January 31, 2019 — 0

The day ahead: January 31, 2019

I’m most reachable in late morning and early afternoon. (How to contact me)

I’ve got a Skype conversation with an NGO in the region in the mid-morning, and an NGO meeting with a UN agency in the mid-afternoon. Otherwise I’ll be prepping for some upcoming congressional meetings, putting together my next trip to the U.S.-Mexico border (week of February 11), putting out a new commentary on the border funding debate, and updating my research databases with lots of new information.

Also, staying indoors as much as possible because it’s less than 10 degrees Fahrenheit here in Washington this morning.

January 30, 2019 — 0

Some articles I found interesting this morning

Meridith Kohut photo at *The New York Times.* Caption: “The Special Actions Force, or FAES, is being sent to work as President Nicolás Maduro’s enforcer against dissent, rights groups in Venezuela say.”

(Even more here)

January 30, 2019

Western Hemisphere Regional

Molly o’toole, “Lawmakers Are Uneasy About Using Military Money and Active-Duty Troops at Border” (The Los Angeles Times, January 30, 2019).

The Defense Department officials said they were engaged in planning around the possibility of Trump’s declaring a national emergency and tapping into either military construction or Army Corps of Engineers funds

Dan Lamothe, “Pentagon to Send Thousands More Troops to Southern Border, Mostly for Surveillance” (The Washington Post, January 30, 2019).

It will mark the latest shift in how active-duty troops are used on the border, and nudge the number from about 2,300 active-duty service members closer to a high-water mark of about 5,900 that were involved in November

Cardinal Joseph W. Tobin, “The ‘Ethics’ of Trump’s Border Wall” (The New York Times, January 30, 2019).

A wall would prevent asylum seekers from asking for protection at any point along our border — their right under the law — and would leave many of them at the mercy of drug cartels and other criminal groups in northern Mexico

Victoria Law, “End Forced Labor in Immigrant Detention” (The New York Times, January 30, 2019).

Detainees say that the Voluntary Work Program is not really voluntary. If they attempt to take a day off or refuse to work, staff members punish them by withholding essential items, threatening to move them to more dangerous housing units or locking them in their cells

Colombia, Venezuela

Juan Camilo Montoya E., “Asombro por Movimiento de Tanquetas en Frontera Con Venezuela” (El Colombiano (Medellin Colombia), January 30, 2019).

Habitantes de la ciudad fronteriza de Cúcuta, grabaron y publicaron en redes sociales el paso de un convoy del Ejército Nacional dirigiéndose a un sector cercano al puente Simón Bolívar, en al noche del martes

Colombia

Edinson Arley Bolanos, “Los Cuestionamientos al General Barrero, el Designado para Proteger a Lideres Sociales” (El Espectador (Colombia), January 30, 2019).

El general Leonardo Barrero fue designado por gobierno nacional como director del plan de protección para líderes sociales y periodistas, a pesar de las acusaciones que pesan sobre él por intentar obstruir investigaciones sobre falsos positivos

John Otis, Tim Padgett, “Colombia Still Has an Active – and Deadly – Guerrilla Army. Should It Negotiate Peace?” (WLRN, January 30, 2019).

Renewing military attacks is a problem because so many of their fighters can just skip across the border into Venezuela. You almost have to use police intelligence more than guns and bombs if you want to go after them

Colombia, Venezuela

Dylan Baddour, “Colombia’s Radical Plan to Welcome Millions of Venezuelan Migrants” (https://cdn.theatlantic.com/assets/media/img/posts/2019/01/RTX6F57G/baa89f4f2.jpg, The Atlantic, January 30, 2019).

Without ample foreign aid, Colombia is near the point where it will not be able to cope

Colombia

“Colombia: Five Armed Conflicts – What’s Happening?” (International Committee of the Red Cross, January 30, 2019).

Deadly force might be used against persons who were not taking part in an armed conflict, which could be contrary to international law

El Salvador

Emilie Sweigart, “El Salvador: Meet the Candidates in Latin America’s First Election of 2019” (Americas Quarterly, January 30, 2019).

Bukele is leading in the polls, followed by Carlos Calleja (ARENA) and Hugo Martínez (FMLN), who hail from traditional political parties

Guatemala

“Editorial: Fighting Central American Corruption Will Help Prevent Migration More Than Any Border Wall” (The Los Angeles Times, January 30, 2019).

By failing to make a forceful defense of CICIG, which receives about 40% of its funding from the United States, the Trump administration is sending a tacit signal to Morales that he can continue to undermine anti-corruption efforts and fair elections

Mexico

“Amlo Anuncio Que Mexico Termino Con su ‘Guerra’ al Narcotrafico” (Agence France Presse, El Universo (Ecuador), January 30, 2019).

El presidente Andrés Manuel López Obrador anunció ayer que terminó la lucha militar antidrogas y que perseguir capos no es prioridad para su gobierno, aunque promueve la creación de una polémica guardia nacional

Alan Feuer, “El Chapo’s Defense? It Lasted Just 30 Minutes” (The New York Times, January 30, 2019).

Prosecutors filed a motion to Judge Cogan asking him to preclude the defense from arguing, as it did in opening statements, that Mr. Zambada, known as Mayo, had quietly conspired with Mexican and American officials to target Mr. Guzmán

Kirk Semple, Paulina Villegas, “Trump Administration’s Asylum-Seeker Policy Takes Effect” (The New York Times, January 30, 2019).

The migrant, a 55-year-old man from Honduras, had applied for asylum in the United States after crossing the border from Mexico. Under the new policy, he will live in Mexico temporarily

Kevin Sieff, Maya Averbuch, “Asylum Seeker Is Sent Back to Mexico as Trump Administration Rolls Out New Policy” (The Washington Post, January 30, 2019).

The return of the Honduran asylum seeker Tuesday appeared to be ad hoc; he was rushed to a van by a Mexican immigration agent with no formal announcement of when others would follow

“Migrant Protection Protocols” (U.S. Customs and Border Protection, January 30, 2019).

Migrant Protection Protocols for U. S. Customs and Border Protection officers and agents

Peru

“Ejercito Reporta Que 92% de Sus 24 Helicopteros Mi-171sh-P se Encuentran Operativos a Pesar de Ataques Terroristas” (La Republica (Peru), January 30, 2019).

Desde que fueron adquiridos mediante un contrato de gobierno a gobierno entre Perú y la Federación Rusa, en 2013, de los 24 helicópteros Mi-171Sh-P asignados a la lucha contra el terrorismo en el valle de los ríos Apurímac, Ene y Mantaro (Vraem), 8 resultaron impactados por disparos

Venezuela

Macarena Vidal Liy, “China y Venezuela: Una Relacion Basada en la Deuda” (El Pais (Cali Colombia), January 30, 2019).

Pekín ha prestado a Caracas en la última década unos 54.000 millones de euros, de los que el Gobierno latinoamericano aún le debe un tercio. La relación entre ambos no pasa por su mejor momento

Joe Parkin Daniels, “What Next for Venezuela? The Four Most Likely Outcomes” (The Guardian (Uk), January 30, 2019).

Will Maduro hang on to power? Will the standoff end in war? The embattled nation stands at a crossroads

Ana Vanessa Herrero, Clifford Krauss, “Opposition Leader, and Oil, Become Focus of Venezuela-U.S. Struggle” (The New York Times, January 30, 2019).

Even as economists made sense of the fine print of the American sanctions — it is still unclear how much money is at stake and how it might be made available to Mr. Guaidó — some expressed fear that the nation could be plunged into anarchy

“U.S. Oil Sanctions Risk Deepening Human Suffering in Venezuela and Could Weaken Mobilization for Democracy” (Washington Office on Latin America, January 30, 2019).

The imposition of these sanctions seemed to be premised on the assumption that they will help usher in a quick return to democracy. The history of broad economic sanctions complicates this idea

David Luhnow, Juan Forero, “Venezuelans Fear New U.S. Oil Sanctions Will Hit Them Hardest” (The Wall Street Journal, January 30, 2019).

The country’s refineries are already operating at a fraction of their capacity, crippled by a lack of spare parts and crude. Venezuela only produced a third of the 190,000 barrels of gasoline it consumed a day as of November

Ana Vanessa Herrero, Nicholas Casey, “Facing an Uncertain Future, Maduro Turns to Special Police Force to Crush Dissent” (The New York Times, January 30, 2019).

Known as the Special Actions Force, or FAES, it is being sent to work as Mr. Maduro’s enforcer in the poor neighborhoods that once supported him but have turned against him

Juan Guaido, “Venezuelans, Strength Is in Unity” (The New York Times, January 30, 2019).

The transition will require support from key military contingents. We have had clandestine meetings with members of the armed forces and the security forces

James Stavridis, “I Commanded the U.S. Military in South America. Deploying Soldiers to Venezuela Would Only Make Things Worse” (Time, January 30, 2019).

Everywhere I went as a four-star Admiral in the region while commanding U.S. Southern Command, I would be reminded of America’s history of intervention

Ben Rhodes, Chris Murphy, “Democrats Should Stand for Democracy in Venezuela — and Democratic Values in America” (The Washington Post, January 30, 2019).

Chest-thumping declarations that melt away over time weaken American power and credibility. In Venezuela, if the armed forces continue to back Maduro, then last week’s move may come to look feckless, while offering Maduro the opportunity to rally his domestic and foreign backers

January 30, 2019 — 0

Elements of the House Democrats’ border security proposal

In advance of the February 15 shutdown deadline, as an alternative to Trump’s border wall, here’s what the House Democrats are proposing. This is as summarized by Rep. Lucille Roybal-Allard (D-California) in today’s House-Senate conference committee meeting:

Ports of entry: 1,000 additional CBP officers; imaging technology; southbound scans
Border Patrol stations infrastructure repair / improvement backlog
Border security technology between ports of entry
Mail processing facilities
Aircraft and vessels for CBP and Coast Guard
Humanitarian aid and improved facilities
Alternatives to detention
New HSI agents
Fewer detention beds
Detention facility inspections and healthcare
TSA and FEMA support

January 30, 2019 — 0

The day ahead: January 30, 2019

I’ll be reachable in the morning. (How to contact me)

This afternoon I’ve got meetings with colleagues from arms-control and border/migration groups, plus an informational interview. Otherwise I’ll be in the office, trying to write a memo about “what should go into a border budget deal” as quickly as possible, and setting up my next trip to the border (week of February 11).

January 29, 2019 — 0

House Armed Services Committee

My view of today’s hearing on the use of the U.S. military at the border.

January 29, 2019 — 0

Some articles I found interesting this morning

Photo from *Vox*. Caption: “This group of children and families turned themselves in at Antelope Wells during the shutdown — where they were apprehended by unpaid Border Patrol agents.”

(Even more here)

January 29, 2019

Western Hemisphere Regional

Alicia A. Caldwell, “Illegal Migrant Crossings Surge in Remote New Mexico Desert” (The Wall Street Journal, January 29, 2019).

Official statistics aren’t available for this barely populated area of New Mexico, but agents say groups of 100 or more migrants have crossed the border there at least 25 times since October

Caitlin Dickerson, Simon Romero, “The Trek Across the Border Veers Into More and More Remote Terrain” (The New York Times, January 29, 2019).

At least 413 migrants were found dead along the border in 2018, according to a preliminary count by the International Organization for Migration, up from 412 in 2017 and 399 in 2016

Brazil

, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Florida), “Rubio: Us Should Go Big on Brazil” (CNN, January 29, 2019).

President Bolsonaro’s new administration offers a fresh opportunity to build a stronger US-Brazilian partnership to ensure continued peace and expanded prosperity and stability for the Western Hemisphere

Chile, Western Hemisphere Regional

Colum Lynch, “The U.S. Sought to Derail Michelle Bachelet’s Bid for Top u.n. Human Rights Job” (Foreign Policy, January 29, 2019).

Claiming her political views on Israel were troubling and citing photographs in which she appeared alongside “Latin American dictators.”

Colombia, Mexico

“‘Narcos’ Mexicanos en Colombia: Lo Que se Especula y Lo Que se Sabe” (Verdad Abierta (Colombia), January 29, 2019).

El mercado interno del narcotráfico se está revitalizando por cuenta de los capitales económicos que están poniendo sobre la mesa los emisarios provenientes de ese país

Colombia

Edinson Arley Bolanos, “Entrevista. “Ni el ‘Paisa’ Ni Nadie se Ha Salido del Proceso de Paz”: Ivan Marquez” (El Espectador (Colombia), January 29, 2019).

El exjefe negociador de las Farc, Luciano Marín, habla desde la clandestinidad sobre el futuro del proceso de paz, su compromiso con la JEP y si es posible que vuelva a rearmarse ante lo que llama “traición al Acuerdo de Paz”

“Sin Pruebas de Estados Unidos, Jep Decidira Extradicion de “Jesus Santrich”” (El Espectador (Colombia), January 29, 2019).

Santrich, su defensa y la Procuraduría tienen cinco días hábiles para presentar sus alegatos. Se prevé que la decisión final se conozca a mediados de febrero

Nicolas Sanchez A., “La Lucha de Temistocles Machado: Mas Viva Que Nunca” (El Espectador (Colombia), January 29, 2019).

Tras un año de su asesinato, en Buenaventura sigue la batalla por el territorio, que era la razón de vivir de don Temis. Por ese crimen, perpetrado el 27 de enero del 2018, hay tres capturados y siete órdenes de captura. Las autoridades no han determinado quién ordenó el homicidio

Colombia, Venezuela

“El Pentagono Guarda Silencio Sobre Despliegue de Tropas en Colombia” (Agence France Presse, El Colombiano (Medellin Colombia), January 29, 2019).

“No he discutido eso con el secretario Bolton”, dijo Shanahan al ser preguntado sobre si había un plan para enviar miles de tropas a Colombia

Mexico

Ed Vulliamy, “Migrants Flee Violence Only to Find More in Tijuana – Mexico’s Murder Capital” (The Guardian (Uk), January 29, 2019).

Three murders on New Year’s Eve took the total to 2,502 – a rate of 126 per 100,000 inhabitants, returning the city to levels of hyper-violence it last saw a decade ago

“Mexico Won’t Accept Minors Awaiting U.S. Asylum Claims” (Associated Press, NBC News, January 29, 2019).

National Immigration Institute Commissioner Tonatiuh Guillen also said Mexico won’t extend the policy beyond a single border crossing, the El Chaparral crossing in Tijuana

Tom Hays, “El Chapo’s Defense Team Rests Its Case After Just 30 Minutes” (Associated Press, Time, January 29, 2019).

Guzman’s fleeting defense was striking because it followed a sweeping one by the government that featured 56 witnesses

Nicaragua

Jose De Cordoba, “Nicaraguan Journalist Challenges Regime, and His Own Family’s History” (The Wall Street Journal, January 29, 2019).

Now, Mr. Chamorro’s son also finds himself in exile, fighting an increasingly repressive regime. This time around, the regime is led by the man who in 1979 helped topple Anastasio Somoza

Venezuela

Ian Talley, Kejal Vyas, Michael C. Bender, “U.S. Imposes Sanctions on Venezuela’s Oil Industry” (The Wall Street Journal, January 29, 2019).

If the standoff endures, the U.S. move could prove devastating for Venezuela’s economy

“Treasury Sanctions Venezuela’s State-Owned Oil Company Petroleos de Venezuela, s.A.” (U.S. Department of the Treasury, January 29, 2019).

As a result of today’s action, all property and interests in property of PdVSA subject to U.S. jurisdiction are blocked, and U.S. persons are generally prohibited from engaging in transactions with them

Edward Wong, Nicholas Casey, “U.S. Targets Venezuela With Tough Oil Sanctions During Crisis of Power” (The New York Times, January 29, 2019).

Sanctions on Pdvsa potentially put at risk as much as a half-million barrels of oil that the United States imports from Venezuela, representing roughly 3 percent of American demand

“Rusia Dice Que “Defendera Sus Intereses” en Venezuela” (EFE, El Colombiano (Medellin Colombia), January 29, 2019).

“Es probable que haya algunos problemas”, dijo Storchak a la prensa en alusión al pago del 100 millones de dólares que debe abonar Caracas en marzo próximo

Kejal Vyas, “Venezuelan Crackdown Takes Deadly Toll” (The Wall Street Journal, January 29, 2019).

Special-police units—carrying shotguns and wearing ski masks—and soldiers have been deployed to clear the crowds. All but one of the victims tallied so far were killed by gunfire

Anatoly Kurmanaev, Thomas Grove, “Russia’s Backing of Venezuela’s Maduro Has Its Limits” (The Wall Street Journal, January 29, 2019).

Russia’s stagnating economy has limited funds available for international campaigns amid growing social discontent at home

David Smilde, Geoff Ramsey, “Faq: Venezuela’s Crisis Explained” (Washington Office on Latin America, January 29, 2019).

Anonymous U.S. intelligence sources have told reporters that Padrino threatened to resign if Maduro didn’t step down. Thus one can imagine, under the right circumstances, military officials telling Maduro it is time for new elections

David A. Graham, “How Seriously Should the World Take Trump’s Venezuela Threat?” (The Atlantic, January 29, 2019).

The question is whether Venezuela will be different, and whether the presence of veteran regime-change advocates such as Bolton and Elliott Abrams will make the difference

Peter Van Buren, “Nervous Times for the U.S. Embassy in Caracas” (The American Conservative, January 29, 2019).

If Maduro does one thing, what will we do as a result? And at what point will we evacuate personnel?

January 29, 2019 — 0

Latin America-related events in Washington this week

Tuesday, January 29, 2019

10:00 in Room 2118, Rayburn House Office Building: Hearing of the House Armed Services Committee on “Department of Defense’s Support to the Southern Border.”
12:30–2:00 at CSIS: A Conversation with Venezuela’s New Special Representative to the OAS, Gustavo Tarre (RSVP required).

Wednesday, January 30, 2019

9:00–10:30 at the Atlantic Council: Guaidó Takes the Helm: Supporting the New Venezuelan Interim Government (RSVP required).
10:00–11:30 at 2200 Rayburn House Office Building: Future of the Rule of Law, CICIG, and Justice Reform in Guatemala (RSVP required).
12:30–1:30 at WOLA: Improving Colombia and Trinidad and Tobago’s Responses to Venezuela’s Migration Crisis (RSVP required).
4:00–5:15 at the Migration Policy Institute: Creative Policy Responses in Latin America to the Venezuelan Migration Crisis (RSVP required).

Thursday, January 31, 2019

12:30–2:00 at Georgetown University ICC: Mexican Migration to the United States 1980–2017 (RSVP required).

Friday, February 1, 2019

9:30–11:30 at the Inter-American Dialogue: Puerto Rico 2019: What Lies Ahead? (RSVP required).

January 29, 2019 — 0

The day ahead: January 29, 2019

I should be reachable much of the day. (How to contact me)

A forecast of light snow this afternoon won’t affect those of us who live near work, but it has postponed some meetings on my calendar. I’ll be writing and setting up an upcoming visit to the U.S.-Mexico border, and keeping an eye on a House Armed Services Committee hearing about the military at the border.

January 28, 2019 — 0

Some articles I found interesting this morning

AFP photo at *El Universo* (Ecuador). Caption: “El presidente de Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, participó en las prácticas de los ejercicios militares que se realizarán en febrero.”

(Even more here)

January 28, 2019

Western Hemisphere Regional

Felicia Sonmez, Robert Costa, “Trump Will Secure Border ‘With or Without Congress,’ Mulvaney Says” (The Washington Post, January 28, 2019).

President Trump is again considering invoking emergency powers to build his proposed wall on the U.S.-Mexico border without congressional approval

“Editorial: Convicted for Leaving Water for Migrants in the Desert: This Is Trump’s Justice” (The Washington Post, January 28, 2019).

That is a snapshot of twisted frontier justice in the age of Trump. Save a migrant’s life, and you risk becoming a political prisoner. Kill a Mexican teenager, and you walk free

Molly o’toole, “Trump Ordered 15,000 New Border and Immigration Officers — but Got Thousands of Vacancies Instead” (The Los Angeles Times, January 28, 2019).

The Border Patrol gained a total of 120 agents in 2018, the first net gain in five years

Shaw Drake, Stephanie Leutert, “‘We Are Full’: What Asylum Seekers Are Told” (The New York Times, January 28, 2019).

United States government officials have told migrants to go to ports of entry rather than crossing the border without authorization. However, simultaneously, they have imposed other policies that reject asylum seekers trying to do just that

Brazil

Benjamin Lessing, “Brazil’s Prison Gangs Are Launching Massive Terrorism Attacks. This Explains Why” (The Washington Post, January 28, 2019).

The factions are engaged in what I call violent lobbying: pressuring leaders over policy issues, using violence

Colombia

Luis Eduardo Celis, “Analisis: Claves para Pensar un Acuerdo de Paz Con el Eln” (El Espectador (Colombia), January 28, 2019).

En el gobierno del presidente Duque, no habrá una mesa de paz, el gobierno Duque es más un gobierno de defensa del orden que de ampliación de democracia, hay que preparar una negociación viable para luego del 2022

Kyle Johnson, “¿Que Pasara Con el Eln?” (International Crisis Group, Razon Publica (Colombia), January 28, 2019).

El ELN debería reconocer los derechos de dichas comunidades y adherirse al derecho internacional humanitario del que tanto habla

Colombia, Cuba

“Cuba Pidio Aplicar Protocolos y Gobierno Insiste en No Reconocerlos” (El Tiempo (Colombia), January 28, 2019).

Este es el primer llamado oficial del gobierno de La Habana para que el Gobierno del presidente Iván Duque acate las reglas de juego convenidas y se ponga de acuerdo con la guerrilla para la salida de los guerrilleros negociadores

Colombia, Venezuela

Deirdre Shesgreen, “John Bolton’s Notes on ‘5,000 Troops to Colombia’ Spark Speculation About Military Intervention in Venezuela” (USA Today, January 28, 2019).

Asked if Bolton’s note meant the U.S. was planning to send troops to Venezuela’s neighbor, a White House spokesman simply reiterated Trump’s “all options are on the table” declaration

Cuba, Venezuela

Nora Gamez Torres, “U.S. Considers Putting Cuba on Terror List Over Island’s Support of Venezuela’s Maduro” (The Miami Herald, January 28, 2019).

”What Cubans are doing in Venezuela is unacceptable,” a senior administration official said. “And the United States is evaluating options to address that behavior”

Ecuador

“Cambios Geopoliticos Marcan Actualizacion de la Politica de Defensa de Ecuador” (El Universo (Ecuador), January 28, 2019).

La firma de la paz entre el Gobierno colombiano y las Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) en el 2016 y la reconstitución de la cooperación internacional en materia de defensa con Estados Unidos desde el 2017 son algunos hechos que el nuevo Libro Blanco toma en cuenta

Guatemala

Jo-Marie Burt, Paulo Estrada, “Who Benefits if the Guatemalan Congress Passes a Blanket Amnesty?” (Open Society Foundations, January 28, 2019).

The coming days will reveal whether the military old guard has its way

Honduras

“Fuerzas Armadas Prueban Drones Comprados a Israel” (El Heraldo (Honduras), January 28, 2019).

Su estructura es de unos 4.7 metros, pesan alrededor de 40 kilogramos y su capacidad de vuelo es de unas cinco horas continuas a 100 kilómetros de distancia

“Policia Reprime Manifestaciones Con Gas y Bala Viva” (Criterio (Honduras), January 28, 2019).

Las manifestaciones convocadas por el Partido Libertad y Refundación (Libre), continúan en muchos sectores de la capital de Honduras y del país, y de igual manera la represión por parte de la Policía Nacional y de la Policía Militar del Orden Público

Mexico

Catherine E. Shoichet, Geneva Sands, “Border Patrol Union Chief: New Trump Administration Policy Is ‘Incentivizing Illegal Immigration’” (CNN, January 28, 2019).

“I’m raising these concerns because in essence what we are doing is punishing people who are trying to follow the laws and rewarding people who cross illegally.”

Alan Bersin, Nate Bruggeman, “Amlo’s National Guard: Mexico Still Needs Its Military to Restore Public Safety” (Lawfare, January 28, 2019).

Integrated with law enforcement and subject to civilian control, the national guard is an innovation that can foster the conditions necessary for civilian institutions to develop and mature

Arturo Angel, “Los Decomisos de Drogas a Cargo del Ejercito Cayeron en el Primer Mes Con Amlo” (Animal Politico (Mexico), January 28, 2019).

Del 1 al 31 de diciembre de 2018 los militares decomisaron aproximadamente un kilogramo de cocaína, cifra que contrasta totalmente con los 210 kilogramos de este enervante que se habían decomisado mensualmente en promedio durante el año

Adam Isacson, Adeline Hite, Maureen Meyer, “The Many Problems With Making Some Asylum Seekers Wait in Mexico” (Washington Office on Latin America, January 28, 2019).

As an organization that works on U.S. migration and border security policy and the situation of migrants in transit in Mexico, we outline below our main concerns about this program

Noah Lanard, “Trump’s Plan to Make Asylum-Seekers Wait in Dangerous Mexican Border Cities Is Probably Illegal” (Mother Jones, January 28, 2019).

The policy will require people fleeing persecution to wait in violent border cities for months and potentially years

Roberto Velasco Alvarez, “Mexico Stands With Migrants. The New U.S. Asylum Policy Must Respect Their Rights.” (Secretariat of Foreign Affairs (Mexico), The Washington Post, January 28, 2019).

In accordance with this international agreement adopted by more than 160 countries, Mexico’s position will no longer be one of migration deterrence and blockage

Cuba, Venezuela

Kirk Semple, “With Spies and Other Operatives, a Nation Looms Over Venezuela’s Crisis: Cuba” (The New York Times, January 28, 2019).

While former military officials who have fled Venezuela have reported the involvement of Cubans within the security and intelligence forces, experts say the extent of that involvement remains shrouded in mystery

Venezuela

Kejal Vyas, Ryan Dube, “Maduro Demands Military’s Loyalty After Attache Defects” (The Wall Street Journal, January 28, 2019).

The impact of Col. Silva’s defection is difficult to gauge. A former Venezuelan general who broke with Mr. Maduro, Clíver Alcalá, said in an interview that it would likely be small

Joe Parkin Daniels, Patricia Torres, “Venezuelan Security Forces Offered Amnesty if They Defect to Opposition” (The Guardian (Uk), January 28, 2019).

Members of Venezuela’s opposition canvassed military bases across the embattled nation on Sunday, offering amnesty to troops and police officers who defect

Andreina Aponte, Anthony Faiola, Rachelle Krygier, “Venezuela’s Opposition in Talks With Military and Civilian Officials to Force Out Maduro, Juan Guaido Says in Interview” (The Washington Post, January 28, 2019).

“We have been in talks with government officials, civilian and military men,” Guaidó said. “This is a very delicate subject involving personal security. We are meeting with them, but discreetly”

Anthony Faiola, Mariana Zuniga, Rachelle Krygier, “Fight in Venezuela Is Against More Than a Strongman — It’s Against What Some Call a Criminal Empire” (The Washington Post, January 28, 2019).

Maduro is not a one-man cult or clan leader. Rather, he rules as the public face of an omnipotent political class accused of immense corruption and narco-trafficking

Michael R. Pompeo, “Remarks at a United Nations Security Council Meeting on Venezuela” (U.S. Department of State, January 28, 2019).

We’re here to urge all nations to support the democratic aspirations of the Venezuelan people as they try to free themselves from former President Maduro’s illegitimate mafia state

Ethan Bronner, Patricia Laya, Tim Ross, “Maduro Stymied in Bid to Pull $1.2 Billion of Gold From u.k.” (Bloomberg, Bloomberg, January 28, 2019).

The $1.2 billion of gold is a big chunk of the $8 billion in foreign reserves held by the Venezuelan central bank. The whereabouts of the rest of them is largely unknown

“Meet Faes: The Bolivarian Police Death Squads Leading Repression Against Protesters” (Caracas Chronicles, January 28, 2019).

Silent and deadly, the FAES —the Spanish acronym for the Bolivarian National Police’s Special Action Forces— are police Death Squads in all but name

Lilian Tintori, “How We Save Venezuela” (The Washington Post, January 28, 2019).

We need the international community to fully support Guaidó and our democratic cause. Most importantly, our allies need to recognize that our plan is the only viable one

Ariya Hagh, Daniel Bennett, Daniel Krcmaric, Zacc Ritter, “Four Reasons It’ll Be Hard to Offer Maduro a Golden Parachute (and One Reason to Try Anyway)” (The Washington Post, January 28, 2019).

Citizens may feel cheated if Maduro skirts justice and accountability. Yet coaxing Maduro out of office would certainly be less costly than a military intervention

Joshua Goodman, Luis Alonso Lugo, Rob Gillies, “Anti-Maduro Coalition Grew From Secret Talks” (Associated Press, Associated Press, January 28, 2019).

In mid-December, Guaido quietly traveled to Washington, Colombia and Brazil to brief officials on the opposition’s strategy of mass demonstrations to coincide with Maduro’s expected swearing-in

Scott Smith, “Venezuela Official: Us in Talks to Improve Frosty Relations” (Associated Press, The Washington Post, January 28, 2019).

In an appearance on state TV, Foreign Minister Jorge Arreaza held up photos showing U.S. Charge d’Affaires James Story and a top Venezuelan government official as proof of the meetings

Edward Wong, Peter Baker, “On Venezuela, Rubio Assumes U.S. Role of Ouster in Chief” (The New York Times, January 28, 2019).

The real worry in Washington is if the situation in Caracas takes a violent turn. Mr. Rubio has talked with administration officials about options if it does — and speaks with authority as if he were the decider

January 28, 2019 — 0

The day ahead: January 28, 2019

I’ll be around in the afternoon. (How to contact me)

After our weekly staff meeting and a meeting to plan our border work, I’ll be at my desk all afternoon. I plan to be setting up my schedule during the week of February 11, when I’ll be in San Diego and Tijuana. I’ll also be going through a big pile of unread documents about the border, Colombia, and defense assistance, and doing a little writing. Since I’ll be picking up my daughter at a late sports practice, I’ll be in the office until well into the evening.

January 28, 2019 — 0

The week ahead

I’m in Washington all week, and have a lighter meeting schedule. That’s good because I’m headed back to San Diego and Tijuana the week of February 11th, and would like to do a lot of writing, research, and congressional visits before then.

January 27, 2019 — 0

Some articles I found interesting January 24

So much news, I can’t even keep up. Here’s Thursday.

(Even more here)

January 24, 2019

Western Hemisphere Regional

Scott R. Anderson, “The Constitutional Quandary Already at the Border” (Lawfare, January 24, 2019).

The president’s Nov. 20 memorandum does not fit with what is known about the existing law and policies surrounding the posse comitatus restriction

Jose A. Del Real, “‘It’s Not a Wall,’ but Steel Slats and Barbed Wire Roil a Border Town” (The New York Times, January 24, 2019).

Lost amid the battle over credit and semantics was how Calexico residents themselves felt about becoming characters in Trump-era political theater

Colombia

“Swift Action Needed Against Lingering Violence, Terrorism in Colombia to Bolster Support for Peace Accord, Incoming Special Representative Tells Security Council” (Security Council, United Nations, January 24, 2019).

Several delegates, hailing the early work of the various bodies mandated by Colombia’s peace agreement, emphasized the need to ensure that they stay independent from the Government and retain their full credibility

Colombia, Cuba

Luis Jaime Acosta, “Colombia Bombing, Extradition Request Roil Already Stagnant Peace Talks” (Reuters, Reuters, January 24, 2019).

Guarantors Cuba and Norway do not support extradition, while Chile said on Tuesday it does. Venezuela and Brazil have not yet commented

“Respetar o No los Protocolos: El Tema Que Desinflo el Apoyo de los Partidos al Gobierno” (Semana (Colombia), January 24, 2019).

Se puede decir que hubo más resistencia que apoyo al gobierno en su decisión de desconocer el protocolo con el ELN. De los partidos de gobierno solo dos lo apoyaron al 100%

Colombia

Kyle Johnson, “Bogota Bomb Shatters Peace Talks With Colombia’s Last Guerrillas” (International Crisis Group, January 24, 2019).

To maintain its cohesion, its collective leadership organ – the Central Command (COCE) – tends to both initiate peaceful gestures and allow more radical units to carry out sustained military activity

“Confrontacion Con el Eln, Grave Amenaza para las Regiones” (Verdad Abierta (Colombia), January 24, 2019).

Presentamos un panorama sobre la situación de las regiones más vulnerables ante el eventual recrudecimiento del conflicto armado y la percepción de líderes sociales y autoridades locales

Erika Rebolledo, “Condenados Militares (R) por Plan para Asesinar a Lideres de dd.hh. Y Politicos en Valle” (La W Radio (Colombia), January 24, 2019).

La denominada “Operación Dragón” se adelantó en el año 2004 y según el senador Alexander López fue contratada por la entonces superintendente de servicios públicos y hoy funcionaria del gobierno Duque

Guatemala

Javier Estrada Tobar, “Fiscal del Mp: “el Ejercito Nos Niega Informacion para Enjuiciar a Guerrilleros”” (Nomada (Guatemala), January 24, 2019).

Hay una reforma de ley que ronda en el Congreso que permitiría que al menos 41 criminales de guerra guatemaltecos abandonen la prisión y gocen de libertad

MartÍn RodrÍguez Pellecer, “El Dilema de la Magistrada Gloria Porras: Frenar el Golpe o Entregarselo a su Cuestionable Suplente” (Nomada (Guatemala), January 24, 2019).

Los golpes de Estado en esta década ya no son con tanques militares, son con laberintos legales y judiciales para que los ciudadanos crean que siguen viviendo en democracia hasta que es demasiado tarde. Y me parece que una jueza valiente puede ponerle freno al Golpe que está ocurriendo en cámara lenta en Guatemala

Mexico

Ashley Westerman, David Greene, “Native American Leader: ‘A Wall Is Not the Answer’” (Morning Edition, National Public Radio, January 24, 2019).

Verlon Jose, vice chairman of the Tohono O’odham Nation, says President Trump’s proposed wall would devastate his community

Jesusa Cervantes, “Guardia Nacional Es una “Apuesta Riesgosa”: Ombudsman Ante Legisladores” (Proceso (Mexico), January 24, 2019).

l defensor de los derechos humanos alertó sobre la Guardia Nacional y sostuvo que aún con mando civil “sigue siendo una respuesta parcial, incompleta y sesgada”

Amy Stillman, Nacha Cattan, “Inside the Deadly Business of Stealing Fuel in Mexico” (Bloomberg, Bloomberg, January 24, 2019).

The black market is ubiquitous in Mexico, where almost 60 percent of the workforce is outside the formal economy, and gasoline has long been one of the mainstays

Mary Beth Sheridan, Sarah Kinosian, “More Than 10,000 Migrants Request Visas as Caravan Hits Mexico More Than 10,000 Migrants Request Visas as Caravan Hits Mexico” (The Washington Post, January 24, 2019).

If the migrants travel together, the convoy could exceed the size of the last such caravan

Central America Regional, Mexico

Juan Montes, “Migrant Tally Surges at Guatemala-Mexico Border” (The Wall Street Journal, January 24, 2019).

That number, provided Wednesday by Mexico’s National Migration Institute, is almost twice the estimate given by Mexican officials a day earlier, reflecting what migrants said was burgeoning awareness of the new policy among would-be travelers

Panama, Western Hemisphere Regional

Nicole Winfield, “Pope Francis Says the Fear of Migration Is ‘Making Us Crazy’ During His Trip to Central America” (Associated Press, Time, January 24, 2019).

Francis famously has called for “bridges, not walls.” After celebrating Mass in 2016 on the Mexican side of the U.S. border, he denounced anyone who wants to build a wall to keep out migrants as “not Christian”

Venezuela

Francisco Toro, “Juan Guaido Claims the Presidency: How Will This Play Out?” (Caracas Chronicles, January 24, 2019).

Right now, there are enormous pressures on the military. It’s possible the institution will fracture into two relatively evenly-matched halves. Who then proceed to shoot it out. It’s also possible it will fragment into eight or ten grouplets

Michael Shifter, “Can Venezuela Have a Peaceful Transition?” (Inter-American Dialogue, The New York Times, January 24, 2019).

For many, an amnesty for the military will be a bitter pill to swallow. The crimes committed have been monumental and there is understandably a demand for full accountability. This delicate question risks dividing the opposition

Daniel Cancel, Fabiola Zerpa, “As U.S. Digs in at Embassy, Venezuela Military Supports Maduro” (Bloomberg, Bloomberg, January 24, 2019).

The deadline Maduro gave for the U.S. to remove its staff would expire in the afternoon on Saturday, Jan. 26. A refusal to evacuate would test Maduro’s reaction and whether he’d be willing to use force

Alex Daugherty, “What Would It Mean to Put Venezuela on the U.S. List of Nations That Sponsor Terrorism?” (The Miami Herald, January 24, 2019).

A potential ban on Venezuelan oil imports could be part of a sanctions package, though oil sanctions can be separate from sanctions imposed as part of designating a country a state sponsor of terror

Deirdre Shesgreen, “Putin Warns Against ‘Destructive Interference’ in Venezuela After Trump Recognizes Juan Guaido” (USA Today, January 24, 2019).

In his phone call with Maduro, Putin "stressed that destructive outside interference grossly violated the fundamental norms of international law,"

Juan Forero, Kejal Vyas, Maolis Castro, “U.S. Recognizes Venezuelan Opposition Leader as Interim President” (The Wall Street Journal, January 24, 2019).

A senior U.S. administration official said the Trump administration would act if Mr. Maduro’s government uses violence against Mr. Guaidó or other assembly members. He said “everything is on the table, all options,” including the use of force

, Ana Vanessa Herrero, “After U.S. Backs Juan Guaido as Venezuela’s Leader, Maduro Cuts Ties” (The New York Times, January 24, 2019).

Mr. Rubio said that designating Mr. Guaidó as president would allow millions of dollars of Venezuelan government assets frozen in the United States to be at the disposal of opposition lawmakers

Michael R. Pompeo, “Continuing U.S. Diplomatic Presence in Venezuela” (U.S. Department of State, January 24, 2019).

The United States will take appropriate actions to hold accountable anyone who endangers the safety and security of our mission and its personnel

Anne Gearan, Karen Deyoung, “With Risks Ahead, Trump Administration Pins Hopes on Venezuela’s Opposition” (The Washington Post, January 24, 2019).

Asked why the response to Maduro is different from that toward many other authoritarian leaders, Bolton rejected the premise. “The fact is, Venezuela is in our hemisphere,”

January 27, 2019 — 0

Some articles I found interesting January 25

So much news, I can’t even keep up. Here’s Friday.

(Even more here)

January 25, 2019

Western Hemisphere Regional

Katie Mettler, “Trump Again Mentioned Taped-Up Women at the Border. Experts Don’t Know What He Is Talking About.” (The Washington Post, January 25, 2019).

On at least eight occasions in 12 days, Trump has mentioned women with "tape put across their mouths." Human-trafficking experts are perplexed

Rafael Carranza, “Border Officials Claim ‘Medical Crisis’ Over Arrival of Migrant Families at the Border” (The Arizona Republic, January 25, 2019).

With larger groups arriving more often, an increasing number of the people agents encountered have also needed to be hospitalized, the agency said

Brazil

Shasta Darlington, “‘I Have to Stay Alive’: Gay Brazilian Lawmaker Gives Up Seat Amid Threats” (The New York Times, January 25, 2019).

Mr. Wyllys has been the target of death threats for years, but he said those threats had become more severe after Marielle Franco, a human rights advocate who was his friend and political ally, was assassinated

“Jair Bolsonaro Wants Brazilians to Have More Guns” (The Economist (Uk), January 25, 2019).

Some of Mr Bolsonaro’s supporters are worried. Violence is “going to explode”, warns Plauto de Lima, a former director of state prisons in Ceará

Colombia, Venezuela

“¿el Eln Estaria Dispuesto a Defender a Maduro en una Eventual Guerra?” (Semana (Colombia), January 25, 2019).

Informes de inteligencia y otras investigaciones dan cuenta de su presencia en medio país y sus relaciones con elementos del Estado. ¿Cómo se comportarían en caso de una intervención extranjera?

Colombia

“El Atentado en Bogota Es una “Accion Irrepetible”: Pablo Beltran” (Semana (Colombia), January 25, 2019).

En entrevista con ‘Caracol Radio’ el jefe guerrillero aseguró que volverán al monte, que descartan pedir asilo político

“¿Como Actua el Eln? – Fundacion Paz y Reconciliacion” (Fundación Paz y Reconciliación (Colombia), January 25, 2019).

Identificar la presencia y golpear al ELN le llevará tiempo al Gobierno. Lo que está claro es que no se requiere mayor producción de violencia para diezmarlo. La época de los bombardeos quedó atrás y en cambio se requiere una estrategia basada en la inteligencia militar y capturas

Cuba

Tony Perrottet, “When Americans Loved Fidel Castro” (The New York Times, January 25, 2019).

The historical ties between the United States and Cuba have been far more complex over the past 120 years than hard-line Republicans care to recall — and that American responsibility for Cuba’s current state also runs deep

Guatemala

Gladys Olmstead, “Ivan Velasquez se Resigna a No Regresar, y Asegura Que la Cicig Continua” (Nomada (Guatemala), January 25, 2019).

Para Iván Velásquez que él no regrese o que se acabe con la CICIG permite que grupos de pro-impunidad no tengan consecuencias por los delitos que cometan

Javier Estrada Tobar, “La Ley Que Dejaria Libres a Criminales de Guerra, Explicada en Cinco Minutos” (Nomada (Guatemala), January 25, 2019).

La nueva ley de reconciliación impulsada por Linares Beltranena ya se aprobó en primera lectura. En dos sesiones más el Congreso la puede aprobar

Mexico

Gloria Leticia DÍaz, “Militares Le Disparan a una Joven y la Presionan para Que Les de su “Perdon”” (Proceso (Mexico), January 25, 2019).

Durante su convalecencia comenzaron las presiones: bajo amenazas de encarcelarla, enviados del Ejército le arrancaron una firma que quedó plantada en un documento donde ella otorgaba el perdón a los agresores

“Maya Averbuch” (The Daily Beast, January 25, 2019).

Immigration authorities were unclear last week about whether the visa offer was temporary, but while it lasts migrants from Central America are continuing to arrive at the border with backpacks on their shoulders

Central America Regional, Mexico

Jeff Ernst, Kirk Semple, “Mexico Moves to Encourage Caravan Migrants to Stay and Work” (The New York Times, January 25, 2019).

The Mexican government initially said it was speeding up the application process for humanitarian visas as an “exception” for the current migrant caravan only. But on Thursday, a spokeswoman with Mexico’s national migration agency said the expedited process would be permanent

Mexico

Andrew Degrandpre, David Nakamura, Kevin Sieff, Maria Sacchetti, “Trump Administration to Start Sending Asylum Seekers to Wait in Mexico” (The Washington Post, January 25, 2019).

Tonatiuh Guillén, who heads Mexico’s immigration agency, said he had not received any communication from the United States about when implementation of the measures would begin

Sarah Kinosian, “As United States’ ‘Remain in Mexico’ Plan Begins, Mexico Plans to Shut Its ‘Too Successful’ Humanitarian Visa Program” (GlobalPost, Public Radio International, January 25, 2019).

Most of the migrants intend to head for the US, a fact Mexican officials have acknowledged. The "remain" policy could force asylum-seekers to wait in dangerous, cartel-controlled Mexican border towns, notorious for high homicide rates, for up to a year

Dara Lind, “The Us Is Sending Some Legal Asylum Seekers Back to Mexico” (Vox, January 25, 2019).

The provision is ambiguously worded enough that it’s not an open-and-shut case

Venezuela

Nicholas Casey, “Within Venezuelan Military Ranks, a Struggle Over What Leader to Back” (The New York Times, January 25, 2019).

The opposition has been targeting the middle ranks, holding meetings with midlevel officers to explain a recent amnesty law passed by the opposition-led National Assembly for people who defect

“Borges: Hay Descontento en la Fanb Pese a las Declaraciones de Lealtad” (El Estimulo (Venezuela), January 25, 2019).

El diputado de la Asamblea Nacional (AN), Julio Borges, afirmó que varios de los oficiales de la Fuerza Armada Nacional Bolivariana (FANB), se han puesto en contacto con la oposición venezolana pese a las recientes declaraciones de los generales chavistas

“Leading Human Rights Organizations Support a Democratic, Non-Violent Solution to Venezuela’s Crisis” (Conectas Human Rights (Brazil), Dejusticia (Colombia), Washington Office on Latin America, Washington Office on Latin America, January 25, 2019).

The international community must advance a democratic, non-violent solution to Venezuela’s crisis that leads to free and fair elections

Kirk Semple, “Echoes of the Past in Venezuela Crisis, but Heard More Lightly” (The New York Times, January 25, 2019).

Where in the past the United States might have felt isolated in Latin America, this time it has company

Alexandra Olson, Cathy Bussewitz, Matt Ott, “Ap Explains: What a Venezuelan Oil Embargo Could Mean for Us” (Associated Press, The Washington Post, January 25, 2019).

Venezuela has consistently been the third- or fourth-largest supplier of crude oil to the United States, and any disruption of imports would be costly

Claudia Smolansky, “16 Muertos y 175 Detenidos Deja Represion de Maduro en 72 Horas de Protestas” (Cronica Uno (Venezuela), January 25, 2019).

Provea aseguró que el asesinato de las 16 personas durante las manifestaciones de 2019 eleva a 231 el total de fallecidos en acciones de calle durante la “era Maduro”

Anton Zverev, Maria Tsvetkova, “Kremlin-Linked Contractors Help Guard Venezuela’s Maduro – Sources” (Reuters, Reuters, January 25, 2019).

Yevgeny Shabayev, leader of a local chapter of a paramilitary group of Cossacks with ties to Russian military contractors, said he had heard the number of Russian contractors in Venezuela may be about 400

Michael R. Pompeo, “Remarks on Venezuela” (U.S. Department of State, January 25, 2019).

Elliott Abrams is coming aboard to lead our efforts on Venezuela

Dan Lamothe, Missy Ryan, “For Now, Pentagon on Margins of American Response to Venezuela Crisis” (The Washington Post, January 25, 2019).

The reluctance of defense officials to discuss even the position of U.S. military assets underscored the Pentagon’s desire to avoid escalating a potentially explosive situation in a region where the United States has limited military weight

January 26, 2019 — 0

This just screams “phone wallpaper”

“A promotional map of the Pan-American Highway produced by Standard Oil,” from “The Collection of Eric Rutkow” in the New York Times’ review of Rutkow’s new history of the Pan-American Highway.

January 25, 2019 — 0

The day ahead: January 25, 2019

I’ll be hard to reach today. (How to contact me)

I’ll be in meetings again today, for about 5 hours. A sit-down between a few NGOs and a State Department official, and a visit to the University of Maryland to check in with a group of students whom I’ve been advising on a project researching civil-military relations in Latin America. I plan to work at home during the last few hours of the afternoon.

January 24, 2019 — 0

The day ahead: January 24, 2019

I’ll be most reachable in the late afternoon. (How to contact me)

I don’t work much on Venezuela, so while I’m watching what happens there, it’s probably not going to dominate my day. I’m taking my daughter for a doctor’s appointment, have a meeting with folks from another NGO, and am meeting this afternoon with colleagues at Congressional Research Service. I should be in the office doing border and Colombia research during the last few hours of the day.

January 23, 2019 — 0

The best song I washed dishes to tonight

“Seventeen” by Sharon Van Etten (2019).

January 23, 2019 — 0

Some articles I found interesting this morning

Even more here)

January 23, 2019

Western Hemisphere Regional

Julie Hirschfeld Davis, Sheryl Gay Stolberg, **“Senate Leaders Plan Competing Bills to End Shutdown”** (*The New York Times*, January 23, 2019).

If both measures fall short, the votes could add new energy to efforts to negotiate a bipartisan compromise

Kristine Phillips, **“They Left Food and Water for Migrants in the Desert. Now They Might Go to Prison.”** (*The Washington Post*, January 23, 2019).

The four women, all volunteers for the Arizona-based aid group No More Deaths, were convicted after a three-day bench trial at a federal court in Tucson. They could face up to six months in federal prison

Robert Barnes, **“Daca Program That Protects Young Undocumented Immigrants Not Likely to Get Supreme Court Review This Term”** (*The Washington Post*, January 23, 2019).

The Supreme Court is not likely to review during its current term the program that shields young undocumented immigrants brought to the United States as children, leaving in place the Obama-era initiative

Ted Hesson, **“Republicans Load Spending Bill With Hard-Line Measures Targeting Asylum”** (*Politico*, January 23, 2019).

The bill doesn’t appear likely to end a partial shutdown of the federal government that stretched into its 32nd day Tuesday

Camilo Carranza, Chris Dalby, **“Insight Crime’s 2018 Homicide Round-Up”** (*InsightCrime*, January 23, 2019).

2018 was a year of turmoil across Latin America and the Caribbean. Homicide levels have reflected this uncertainty, rising sharply in parts, continuing to drop in others

Brazil

Ishaan Tharoor, **“Brazil’s New President Fizzles in His Overseas Debut”** (*The Washington Post*, January 23, 2019).

Bolsonaro spoke for barely more than 10 minutes, delivering an address observers characterized as “lifeless” and “wooden”

Colombia, Cuba

Matthew Bristow, Oscar Medina, **“Crisis Brews as Colombia Asks Cuba to Extradite Rebels”** (Bloomberg, *Time*, January 23, 2019).

Duque will find it hard to back down from his current position, while Cuba has no obvious place to send the ten ELN negotiators, who are now in limbo

**“Editorial: El Terror No Es Excusa para Dejar de Hacer Lo Correcto”** (*El Espectador (Colombia)*, January 23, 2019).

La insistencia, tanto de la Cancillería como del alto comisionado para la Paz, de ignorar los protocolos pactados con el Eln es un golpe a la credibilidad del Estado, que sabotea cualquier intento futuro de entablar procesos de paz

Colombia

Juan Esteban Lewin, Laura Sofia Matiz, **“Detector a los Argumentos de Ceballos para No Acatar el Protocolo Con el Eln”** (*La Silla Vacia (Colombia)*, January 23, 2019).

El Comisionado de Paz, Miguel Ceballos, ha argumentado que Cuba debe extraditar a los elenos que están en ese país como negociadores con el Gobierno. Eso a pesar de que ayer se filtró el protocolo

Colombia, Cuba

**“Cancilleria de Noruega Pidio al Gobierno Colombiano Respetar Protocolo Con Eln”** (*El Espectador (Colombia)*, January 23, 2019).

El Gobierno noruego respalda la decisión de Cuba de acogerse a lo pactado

Colombia

Ricardo Monsalve Gaviria, **“¿Estan Fragmentadas las Estructuras del Eln?”** (*El Colombiano (Medellin Colombia)*, January 23, 2019).

“Las acciones militares son compartimentadas. Es un principio de la guerra y el Eln la aplica. Solamente las saben quienes están involucrados en ellas”

El Salvador

Hannah Dreier, **“Former Ms-13 Member Who Secretly Helped Police Is Deported”** (*ProPublica*, January 23, 2019).

The teenager told police all about his gang, MS-13. In return, he was slated for deportation and marked for death

Guatemala

Maria Martin, **“Killings of Guatemala’s Indigenous Activists Raise Specter of Human Rights Crisis”** (*National Public Radio*, January 23, 2019).

“It literally feels like it’s on the edge of the precipice and just over that precipice, you’re staring back at [in] the 1970s … and you’re staring at [a] massive violation of human rights”

Jo-Marie Burt, Paulo Estrada, **“Guatemala Poised to Adopt Blanket Amnesty for Grave Crimes Cases”** (*Open Society Foundations*, January 23, 2019).

The law would establish the total extinction of criminal responsibility in cases related to the internal armed conflict, as well as the application of the principle of non-retroactivity of the law in any of these cases

Honduras

**“Jefe de Comando Sur: Solucion a Inseguridad de la Region Debe Ir Mas Alla Que la Militar”** (*El Heraldo (Honduras)*, January 23, 2019).

Destacó que Honduras, El Salvador y Guatemala son los primeros países que visita desde que asumió debido “a los desafíos de seguridad” que esta región ha enfrentado en los últimos años

Mexico

Alan Feuer, **“El Chapo Trial Suggests Trump’s Wall Would Do Little to Stop Drug Smuggling”** (*The New York Times*, January 23, 2019).

The 10 weeks of testimony at the trial of Joaquín Guzmán Loera, the drug lord known as El Chapo, have revealed that his innovative smuggling network typically went through legal checkpoints

**“Derechos Humanos Denuncia al Ejercito por la Tragedia de Hidalgo”** (*Noreste (Mexico)*, January 23, 2019).

Tras el incidente, la Administración de López Obrador reconoció que a Tlahuelilpan solo llegaron 25 soldados y que la Secretaría de la Defensa tuvo conocimiento de la fuga del hidrocarburo cuatro horas antes del incendio

**“Morena Rechaza Extender Discusion Sobre Guardia Nacional; Citan a Secretarios de Defensa, Marina y Seguridad”** (*Animal Politico (Mexico)*, January 23, 2019).

Por votación de 7 votos contra 6, la Comisión de Puntos Constitucionales del Senado (con mayoría de Morena) rechazó la propuesta de legisladores de oposición, de extender la discusión sobre la Guardia Nacional, invitando a especialistas y organizaciones

Juan Montes, **“New Caravan Grows as Mexico Eases Passage”** (*The Wall Street Journal*, January 23, 2019).

Around 5,600 Central Americans are awaiting visas at Tecún Umán, on Guatemala’s border with Mexico, Mexican officials said Tuesday. The visas would allow them to continue their journey north without the risk of deportation from Mexico

Venezuela

Andrew Rosati, Fabiola Zerpa, **“Mutiny Attempt Tests Maduro’s Tenuous Grip on Power in Venezuela”** (*Bloomberg*, January 23, 2019).

“What happened in Cotiza shows that working-class sectors, and those loyal to Chavismo, are willing to take to the streets — and even back those who take up arms”

, Jim Wyss, **“Venezuela Braces for Anti-Government March Amid Tension, Unrest”** (*The Miami Herald*, January 23, 2019).

“I think we will be turning a page on Wednesday,” he said. “But it’s not the end of the chapter and much less the end of the book”

Ana Vanessa Herrero, Nicholas Casey, **“As Venezuela Crumbles, Opposition Led by Juan Guaido Sees an Opportunity”** (*The New York Times*, January 23, 2019).

Mr. Guaidó’s ascendance as the face of the opposition could herald a new, more confrontational stance with the government, where the military will be actively courted as allies, said Ms. Tintori

Joe Parkin Daniels, Mariana Zuniga, **“Venezuela Street Clashes and Military Unrest Pile Pressure on Maduro”** (*The Guardian (Uk)*, January 23, 2019).

This week’s developments have surprised analysts, who had thought the opposition to be too fractured – and Venezuela too divided on class lines – to bring about change

Mike Pence, **“Venezuela, America Stands With You”** (*The Wall Street Journal*, January 23, 2019).

As I told Mr. Guaidó last week, President Trump and the U.S. stand resolutely with the Venezuelan people as they seek to regain their liberty from dictator Nicolás Maduro

January 23, 2019 — 0

The day ahead: January 23, 2019

I’ll be pretty hard to reach until the end of the day. (How to contact me)

I’ve got an internal beginning-of-year planning meeting, a sit-down with a foundation program officer, and a call with a journalist on my calendar today. Near the end of the day I should be reachable, and working on border research.

January 22, 2019 — 0

The best song I washed dishes to tonight

“Stoned, Alone” by Teenage Wrist (2018).

January 22, 2019 — 0

Latin America-related events in Washington this week

Tuesday, January 22, 2019

4:00-5:30 at American University: Cuba in 2019 (RSVP required).

Wednesday, January 23, 2019

9:00-10:00 at the Atlantic Council: Brazil’s Bolsonaro in 2019: What to Expect from LatAm’s Newest Leader (RSVP required).

January 22, 2019 — 0

Some articles I found interesting this morning

(Even more here)

January 22, 2019

Argentina

Juan Gabriel Tokatlian, “La Estrategia de ee.uu. Hacia la Argentina” (Universidad Di Tella (Argentina), El Cohete a la Luna (Argentina), January 22, 2019).

La Integrated Country Strategy sobre la Argentina merece una lectura y un seguimiento. Ahí están los trazados principales de la política exterior de Washington hacia Buenos Aires

Colombia

“Miembros del Secretariado de las Farc, a Responder por Secuestro Ante la Jep” (Semana (Colombia), January 22, 2019).

Según la Fiscalía, las Farc realizó 6.162 plagios entre 1993 y 2012

Colombia, Cuba

“‘No Pueden Pedir Que Nos Amarremos los Brazos Si Nos Atacan’: Beltran” (Agence France Presse, El Tiempo (Colombia), January 22, 2019).

El protocolo dice que hay 15 días para el retorno de la delegación (vence el 2 de febrero) y vamos a actuar dentro de ese protocolo

“‘Cuba Esta en la Obligacion de Capturar a Jefes del Eln’: Canciller” (El Tiempo (Colombia), January 22, 2019).

Holmes Trujillo explicó que dichos protocolos no aplican en esta situación, pues se está hablando de un “atentado terrorista”

Rodrigo Uprimny, “¿Es Valida la Exigencia a Cuba de Que Entregue a los Negociadores del Eln?” (La Silla Vacia (Colombia), January 22, 2019).

El punto central es que Cuba no está albergando a los negociadores del ELN con el fin de dar apoyo a esa organización en su lucha armada (caso en el cual podría acusársela de violar la resolución 1373 del Consejo de Seguridad) sino que lo ha hecho por solicitud del gobierno colombiano

Colombia

Víctor De Currea-lugo, “Y el Eln Hizo Trizas la Paz.” (victordecurrealugo.com (Colombia), January 22, 2019).

El ELN tiene una responsabilidad mayúscula en darle un nuevo aire a la extrema derecha. El ELN contribuyó a aumentar la polarización del país

Adelaida Avila Cabrera, “El Eln se para de la Mesa Con Mas Fuerza, Pero Mas Enemigos” (La Silla Vacia (Colombia), January 22, 2019).

Este es el mapa militar con el que el ELN sale de la mesa diálogos y, según lo que se vislumbra por ahora, empleará en enfrentar al Estado

Ecuador, Venezuela

Joe Parkin Daniels, “Ecuador Targets Venezuelan Migrants After Woman’s Death” (The Guardian (Uk), January 22, 2019).

Videos circulating on social media show mobs of Ecuadorians harassing Venezuelans, breaking into their homes and burning their possessions

Mexico

Teresa Mioli, “First Journalist Killed in Mexico in 2019 Reported Threats to His Life and Was Under Federal Protection” (Knight Center University of Texas, January 22, 2019).

The body of Rafael Murúa Manríquez, general director of community radio Radiokashana in the municipality of Mulegé, was found in Santa Rosalía on the coast of the Gulf of California

Jeff Abbott, Sandra Cuffe, “‘I Do Not Want to Die’: Central American Exodus Grows” (Al Jazeera, January 22, 2019).

As of Sunday night, 4,912 adults and 1,007 children had requested visas, which the Mexican government was processing over several days

Adriana Diaz, “New Migrant Caravan Waits to Cross Into Mexico With Hopes of Reaching U.S.” (CBS News, January 22, 2019).

CBS News asked officials in Mexico if they are incentivizing migrants to come north. They said the migrants will come no matter what and legal migration provides rights and protections

Kirk Semple, “Mexico Pipeline Explosion Tests New President” (The New York Times, January 22, 2019).

The widespread supply problems have left some observers with the sense the López Obrador administration had launched the crackdown without adequate planning

Delphine Schrank, “Murders in Mexico Rise by a Third in 2018 to New Record” (Reuters, Reuters, January 22, 2019).

Mexico’s national statistics office (INEGI) also calculated a record number of homicides in 2017, at 31,174 murders, or 25 per 100,000, using other methodologies

Nicaragua

Carlos F. Chamorro, “Independent Journalism From Exile” (Confidencial (Nicaragua), January 22, 2019).

Faced with these extreme threats, I have been forced into the painful decision to go into exile to protect my physical integrity and my freedom, and above all to be able to continue to exercise independent journalism from Costa Rica

Venezuela

Ana Vanessa Herrero, “Venezuela Detains National Guard Members Accused of Turning on Maduro” (The New York Times, January 22, 2019).

The opposition leaders have called for nationwide demonstrations on Wednesday, which they hope will show that their bid to replace Mr. Maduro has widespread support

Fabiola Sanchez , “Venezuela Quells Soldiers’ Revolt, Top Court Blasts Congress” (Associated Press, Associated Press, January 22, 2019).

Hours later, the government-stacked Supreme Court said it was throwing out recent measures by the National Assembly that declared Maduro’s presidency illegitimate, deepening a standoff with the opposition-controlled legislature

“Opositores Marcharan Desde Barriada Donde se Sublevaron Militares” (EFE, La Republica (Peru), January 22, 2019).

El presidente del Parlamento, Juan Guaidó, ha pedido apoyo civil, militar y extranjero para asumir el mando del Gobierno y convocó “a todo el pueblo a la calle” a participar el 23 de enero

Juliana Gil Gutierrez, “¿‘Madura’ una Rebelion Militar?” (El Colombiano (Medellin Colombia), January 22, 2019).

Dentro de la Fuerza Armada Nacional Bolivariana (FANB) han crecido brotes disidentes en contra del régimen

Trinidad and Tobago, Venezuela

Venezuela Investigative Unit, “Pirates Control Ocean Between Venezuela, Trinidad and Tobago” (InsightCrime, January 22, 2019).

“They steal the engines so fishermen cannot continue sailing in the area where they could witness drug trafficking operations, which now take place in complete impunity”

January 22, 2019 — 0

The day ahead: January 22, 2019

I’ll be in and out of meetings all day. (How to contact me)

It was nice to have a long weekend at home, I did a lot of reading and research. But that’s over now. I have 2 internal meetings, calls with an author and a reporter, and a likely meeting with a Capitol Hill colleague. Except for a brief window mid-day, I’ll be hard to pin down today.

January 21, 2019 — 0

Some articles I found interesting this morning

Photo from *Plaza Pública* (Guatemala). Caption: “Agentes de la Policía Nacional Civil detienen el paso de Omar Castro, 23, y de su hija, Mélody, en el tramo fronterizo entre las aduanas hondureña y guatemalteca.”

(Even more here)

January 21, 2019

Western Hemisphere Regional

Dara Lind, Li Zhou, “Here’s Trump’s Latest Offer to End the Shutdown — and Why Democrats Aren’t Interested” (Vox, January 21, 2019).

President Donald Trump just blinked on the government shutdown. But his standoff with congressional Democrats doesn’t appear to be headed to a resolution anytime soon

Andy Kroll, “Republican Congressman: Trump’s Border Crisis Is a ‘Myth’” (Rolling Stone, January 21, 2019).

When is this wall fever going to break? Honestly, if I knew the answer — I wish I knew the answer. I don’t.

Colombia, Cuba

Helen Murphy, Sarah Marsh, “Cuba, Colombia Face Standoff Over Extradition Request for Eln Rebels” (Reuters, Reuters, January 21, 2019).

The protocols provide minimum security guarantees for guerrilla leaders to return to mountainous or jungle areas of Colombia with the help of the International Committee of the Red Cross, providing security from military attack for an agreed period

Colombia

Sergio Saavedra, “Duque Rompe Negociaciones Con el Eln” (Fundación Paz y Reconciliación (Colombia), January 21, 2019).

El ELN hay una gran desconfianza del camino de la negociación, así como en el gobierno. A su vez, sostiene que parte de la alianza uribista no tiene interés en superar la violencia

Colombia, Cuba

Gloria Castrillon, “Este Es el Protocolo Que Firmaron Colombia, Eln y los Paises Garantes en Caso de la Ruptura de los Dialogos” (El Espectador (Colombia), January 21, 2019).

El documento de una página, firmado por delegados de Cuba, Venezuela, Chile, Noruega y Ecuador, prevé que, en caso de ruptura de los diálogos, las partes se tomarán 15 días para planear y concretar el retorno a Colombia de la delegación de este grupo insurgente

Colombia

Yamid Amat, “‘Felipe Torres’ Pide al Eln Que Declare el Cese Unilateral” (El Tiempo (Colombia), January 21, 2019).

Velandia calificó el acto terrorista de irracional. Le pidió a su antigua agrupación que libere a todos los secuestrados y declare un cese unilateral de acciones ofensivas. Si no lo hacen, están condenados a ser aniquilados

“El Camino Es la Solucion Politica del Conflicto” (Ejercito de Liberacion Nacional (Colombia), January 21, 2019).

Es entonces muy desproporcionado que mientras el Gobierno nos ataca, plantee que nosotros no podamos responder en legítima defensa

Christine Armario, “Hope Dashed for Families of Colombia Cadets Killed in Attack” (Associated Press, The Washington Post, January 21, 2019).

The young cadets inside were busy pushing forward dreams of serving their country and helping lift their families out of poverty

Colombia, Mexico

Andres Cajiao, Juan Carlos Garzón, “Narcotraficantes Mexicanos en Colombia” (Fundación Ideas para la Paz (Colombia), Razon Publica (Colombia), January 21, 2019).

Las organizaciones del narcotráfico mexicanas se adaptan al inestable contexto colombiano con el objetivo de garantizar las condiciones para sus negocios, y no para fortalecer a los grupos armados colombianos

Mexico

Yuriria Avila, “El Sabueso: Morena Dice Que Fuerzas Armadas Violan Menos Derechos Que la Policia Federal, ¿Es Cierto?” (Animal Politico (Mexico), January 21, 2019).

Si la comparación se hiciera basada en las violaciones reportadas divididas entre las detenciones realizadas por cada corporación, entonces la conclusión sería que las Fuerzas Armadas son las que cometieron más violaciones de derechos humanos

Anthony Esposito, Daina Beth Solomon, “Missteps in Mexican Pipeline Blast Trigger New Scrutiny of Fuel Plan” (Reuters, Reuters, January 21, 2019).

Relatives of some of the victims said fuel shortages stemming from President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s plan attracted people to the leak

Kirk Semple, Paulina Villegas, “Death Toll in Mexico Blast Rises to 79; Leader Vows to Intensify Crackdown on Fuel Theft” (The New York Times, January 21, 2019).

That section of pipeline had been among the parts of the fuel transportation network that had been temporarily shut as part of the government’s strategy to curb theft. But the flow through the tube resumed on Friday, just hours before thieves punctured it

“Como Ocurrio la Explosion, Antecedentes de Ordena y la Actuacion del Ejercito: Lo Que se Sabe de la Tragedia en Tlahuelilpan” (Animal Politico (Mexico), January 21, 2019).

El presidente de México, tras la tragedia en Tlahuelilpan, dijo que su gobierno seguirá combatiendo el robo de hidrocarburos, aunque en los casos de perforaciones a ductos y habitantes que acudan a tratar de llevarse el combustible, no se buscará una confrontación

Emilio Gutierrez Soto, “I’m Safe, but Not Yet Free” (Politico, January 21, 2019).

My long escape to freedom began several years before that desperate ride across the desert when I reported for my local newspaper, El Diario, that soldiers had taken over a hotel and were robbing migrants

“Actualizacion Sobre la Caravana Exodo Migrante en la Frontera Sur. 19 de Enero 2019” (Voces Mesoamericanas (Mexico), January 21, 2019).

El INM inicia tímidamente la entrega de tarjetas con permiso de estancia por razones humanitarias, y anuncia que entregará miles a partir de la semana que viene. Sin embargo, la COMAR progresa lentamente

Alberto Pradilla, “Nueva Caravana Migrante: Todo Cambia Salvo las Razones para Huir” (Plaza Publica (Guatemala), January 21, 2019).

México ofrece tarjetas humanitarias a los integrantes de la primera caravana migrante del año. Más de dos mil centroamericanos no han esperado a cumplir con el trámite y caminan por Chiapas. Otros cientos aguardan en Tecún Umán, confiando en las promesas de las autoridades

Ezequiel Flores Contreras, “Los 12 Anos de la Guerra Contra el Narcotrafico Dejaron 21 Mil 352 Asesinatos en Guerrero” (Proceso (Mexico), January 21, 2019).

Fue en enero de 2007 cuando el entonces presidente Felipe Calderón Hinojosa desplegó al Ejército en el estado con el Operativo Conjunto Guerrero

Venezuela

“Grupo de Militares Venezolanos Llama a Desconocer a Nicolas Maduro” (EFE, La Prensa (Nicaragua), January 21, 2019).

Los insurrectos conformaban un grupo “reducido” de militares de la Guardia Nacional Bolivariana (GNB, policía militarizada) y les acusa de haber robado un lote de armas de guerra en horas de la madrugada

January 21, 2019 — 0

The day ahead: January 21, 2019

I’m intermittently reachable on this holiday. (How to contact me)

It’s Martin Luther King Jr. Day, and WOLA’s office building is closed. I’m home for the day. It’s extremely cold outside, and we’ll probably spend nearly all day in the house. I’ll spend some of the day in my home office, and some with the family.

January 18, 2019 — 0

The asylum process can be manageable—and Mexico is giving it a try

Left: last October in Chiapas. Right: this week in Chiapas.

Incredibly, about 60 percent of migrants being apprehended, or showing up without documents, at the U.S.-Mexico border are now children and families. Most are asking for asylum in the United States. (Mexico, too, has seen a fourteen-fold increase in asylum-seekers since 2014.) That has never happened before.

Take away that population, and the number of undocumented migrants to the United States is as small as it has ever been in my lifetime. (I’m 48.)

So how can we alleviate and manage our hemispheric asylum crisis? Here’s a non-comprehensive list of things that the U.S., Mexican, and Central American governments could do.

☐ Reduce the number of Central Americans who want to flee by investing in public security, judicial reform, anti-corruption measures, education, and job creation in El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras. Meanwhile, lean hard on governments and security forces that are tolerating corruption, colluding with criminals, and generally moving away from these goals.

✔︎ Give a legal migratory status in Mexico to people who are threatened in their home countries, and who don’t feel safe in Mexico, so that they may transit to the U.S. border without having to pay smugglers, ride atop cargo trains, or be preyed upon by criminals and corrupt security-force agents.

☐ Once at the border, ensure that ports of entry have enough holding space and trained CBP officers to handle an elevated number of asylum claims, USCIS has the resources to carry out credible fear interviews rapidly, and ICE can process asylum-seekers efficiently.

☐ While they await decisions on their asylum claims, monitor those who pass credible-fear interviews through “alternatives to detention” programs with very high compliance rates, at a tiny fraction of the cost of detention.

☐ Make it possible for most asylum-seekers to get a final decision from a judge in a matter of months—not years—because the U.S. government has hired enough judges to keep up with demand and reduce backlogs. Ensure that asylum-seekers have clear due-process guarantees, including time to prepare their cases and expanded access to counsel, whom more will be able to retain because they don’t have to spend money on smugglers. With this in place, those who do not qualify for asylum would not remain in the United States for years, and because of the quick turnaround, others with weak claims wouldn’t even attempt the journey. Integrate those who do qualify into U.S. communities.

That’s a nice vision, isn’t it? No walls, greatly reduced human suffering, a perceived “threat” reduced to an administrative issue. Realizing this vision would require some big new investments, but they’d almost definitely be smaller than the cost of the Trump administration’s proposals for wall construction, Border Patrol and ICE hiring, expanded detention, military deployments, and long-term stays in Mexico.

I only check the “box” for Mexico above because of the new Mexican government’s handling of the migrant caravan now arriving in the country. The National Migration Institute is channeling arriving Central Americans into a legal process: though it takes a few days, all will be registered and issued humanitarian visas upon entry, allowing them to live and work in Mexico for a year.

That one-year visa doesn’t prevent anyone from buying a bus ticket from Chiapas to the border and seeking asylum in the United States. It is then up to the U.S. government to get better at channeling them to the ports of entry and checking all of the above boxes so that the asylum system can handle the flow quickly and efficiently. (Needless to say, the Trump administration is not aiming to get better at this.)

The new Mexican government has taken an interesting and promising step here. If migrants have a legal document to remain temporarily in Mexico, they can travel safely and move through checkpoints in an orderly way, instead of paying more than US$6,000 to a smuggler.

This isn’t without risk for Mexico. It could end up incentivizing larger numbers of migrants to arrive, obtain a humanitarian status, and use it as a “transit visa” to the United States. (Again, this means the U.S. government will need more resources in place to process these applicants more quickly, which would dissuade people with weak asylum claims from coming.) Mexico is indicating that the new system is just for caravan participants—not, for instance, people from Asia or Africa who might otherwise converge on Mexican soil. But even that standard might create an incentive to organize more caravans.

Dealing with these outcomes, should they materialize, is the next step. But for now, by giving migrants a short-term legal status, the new system that Mexico is rolling out deals a severe blow to the coyotes and criminals who prey on people fleeing Central America.

January 18, 2019 — 0

The day ahead: January 18, 2019

I should be reachable much of the day. (How to contact me)

My hands barely touched a keyboard the past few days, due to an average of over eight hours per day of meetings and phone calls. I haven’t even posted news links here since Tuesday. My calendar is much clearer today, though, and I hope to do a lot of catching up.

January 17, 2019 — 0

Congress Page Revived

I’ve just updated a resource that I created two years ago and—I hate to admit—failed to update much over the past year. But it works again now, so give it a spin sometime, it’s pretty cool.

It’s a database-driven little web app called “Narrow Down Congress” (narrowdown.org). It does one thing: classify members of the U.S. Congress according to groups that you create, and then show you which legislators belong to more than one group.

Why is that useful? Say you’re interested in human rights in Mexico. You have a list of House Foreign Affairs Committee members, a list of legislators who signed a recent letter on worldwide human rights, and a list of legislators who’ve said something about Mexico in the Congressional Record. Wouldn’t it be interesting to know which legislators are on all three lists? Or even just on two of the three? And then export their contact information?

Well, I think it would be interesting. That’s why I made this page, using my advanced beginner-level PHP, MYSQL, and Javascript skills.

And now the site has the entire 116th Congress’s current contact information in it. However, as of now a lot of the existing categories are out of date: committee memberships, for instance, have changed a lot since the last Congress, and many new changes are coming every day right now. But we’ll be updating them constantly, and you’re welcome to make your own.

Check it out. It makes you create a username and password, but that’s just so that the lists you create will still be there the next time you visit. And if it’s still confusing, just click “tutorial” in the upper right-hand corner.

January 2019

January 31, 2019

Western Hemisphere Regional

Colombia

Colombia, Venezuela

Colombia

Colombia, Cuba

El Salvador

Guatemala

Guatemala, Mexico

Mexico

Venezuela

January 30, 2019

Western Hemisphere Regional

Colombia, Venezuela

Colombia

Colombia, Venezuela

Colombia

El Salvador

Guatemala

Mexico

Peru

Venezuela

January 29, 2019

Western Hemisphere Regional

Brazil

Chile, Western Hemisphere Regional

Colombia, Mexico

Colombia

Colombia, Venezuela

Mexico

Nicaragua

Venezuela

Tuesday, January 29, 2019

Wednesday, January 30, 2019

Thursday, January 31, 2019

Friday, February 1, 2019

January 28, 2019

Western Hemisphere Regional

Brazil

Colombia

Colombia, Cuba

Colombia, Venezuela

Cuba, Venezuela

Ecuador

Guatemala

Honduras

Mexico

Cuba, Venezuela

Venezuela

January 24, 2019

Western Hemisphere Regional

Colombia

Colombia, Cuba

Colombia

Guatemala

Mexico

Central America Regional, Mexico

Panama, Western Hemisphere Regional

Venezuela

January 25, 2019

Western Hemisphere Regional

Brazil

Colombia, Venezuela

Colombia

Cuba

Guatemala

Mexico

Central America Regional, Mexico

Mexico

Venezuela

January 23, 2019

Western Hemisphere Regional

Brazil

Colombia, Cuba

Colombia

Colombia, Cuba

Colombia

El Salvador

Guatemala