Adam Isacson

Developments

“America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate,” said Donald Trump, as U.S. voters elected him to the presidency with a majority of the electoral and popular votes, while giving the Republican Party a majority of the U.S. Senate and the possibility of a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.

“We’re going to have to seal up those borders and we’re going to have to let people come into our country,” the president-elect said in his acceptance remarks’ only substantive reference to the U.S.-Mexico border. “We want people to come back in, but we have to, we have to let them come back in, but they have to come in legally.”

Based on statements of the president-elect and his surrogates, the list of policies, programs, and migration pathways that a second Trump administration would be likely to end, curtail, or sharply reduce include:

• Use of the CBP One smartphone app to schedule appointments at U.S.-Mexico border ports of entry.
• Nearly all access to asylum between ports of entry (which would largely continue a Biden administration policy dating back to early June 2024).
• The Biden administration’s humanitarian parole program for citizens of Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela.
• Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA), an Obama-era policy that protects from deportation hundreds of thousands of undocumented people who were brought to the United States as children. Challenges to DACA remain before a federal court.
• Continued Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for citizens of 16 countries, including El Salvador, Haiti, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Venezuela.
• Other pathways including family reunification programs and the Central American Minors Program.
• The “Safe Mobility Offices” program offering access to migration pathways for a limited number of some countries’ migrants in Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, and Guatemala.
• Assistance to UNHCR, IOM, and humanitarian non-profits helping to integrate migrants in other countries in the Americas, and to provide urgent assistance to those in transit.
• The FEMA Shelter and Services Program (SSP), which supports municipalities and non-profits, including shelters receiving released migrants.
• Justice Department challenges to Texas’s border and migration crackdowns, including the S.B. 4 law making unauthorized border crossings a state crime.

Initiatives that may be coming after Trump’s January 20 inauguration may include the following policies, or attempts to implement policies:

• A campaign of “mass deportation” that could eject millions from the United States via sweeps and raids, internment in staging camps, and large-scale removals, possibly employing military personnel.
• A renewed “Remain in Mexico” program, if the Mexican government is compelled to agree with it.
• A possible attempt to use a prevalent disease of non-pandemic proportions as a pretext to revive the “Title 42” policy of expelling asylum seekers. If it happens, it would come with a reversal of the Biden administration’s reluctance to expel unaccompanied minors.
• Expanded use of detention facilities managed by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), often through private contractors.
• A “lawfare” campaign, similar to what the Republican attorney-general of Texas has been carrying out, seeking to shut down, punish, and otherwise block the work of shelters, legal aid groups, and other service providers assisting migrants.
• Renewed border wall construction.
• More National Guard and perhaps regular military deployments to the U.S.-Mexico border.
• A more aggressive stance toward the Mexican government, especially on blocking migrants and stopping fentanyl. This may include threats of tariffs on Mexican goods if the Mexican government does not comply with hardline policies, like “Remain in Mexico,” that require its cooperation. Some close to Trump have proposed using drones or Special Forces teams to attack organized crime targets inside Mexico without the Mexican government’s consent.
• Weaker oversight of Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and Border Patrol in human rights abuse cases.
• Invoking the Constitution’s “invasion” clause to justify hardline policies, essentially classifying migrants and asylum seekers as the equivalent of an invading army.

• “Full text: Donald Trump’s acceptance speech” (The Spectator (UK), November 6, 2024).
• Ernesto Eslava, ““Vamos a Cerrar la Frontera”, Reitera Trump en su Discurso de Triunfo.” (Revista Zeta (Tijuana Mexico), November 6, 2024).

Exit polls from CNN and NBC News showed that immigration fell on voters’ list of priority issues, well behind the economy. “There has also been growing unease among voters about deporting those who have been in the country for several years,” noted a Newsweek analysis of poll data.

• Dan Gooding, “Cnn Exit Poll Results: Immigration Falls Down Us Voters’ List of Priorities” (Newsweek, November 5, 2024).

Arizona voters approved Proposition 314, a ballot measure that makes unauthorized border crossing a state crime. It appears to have won more than 60 percent of the vote. The measure is similar to Texas’s S.B. 4, a law passed in late 2023 that remains on hold pending legal challenges.

Opponents of these laws point to the chaos that could result if states adopt and carry out different immigration policies, and the likelihood that the law might empower local and state police to stop people who look like they are of Latino descent merely on suspicion of having crossed the border illegally.

• Fiona Harrigan, “Arizona Passes Immigration Crackdown Measure That Will Invite Unaccountable Policing” (Reason, November 6, 2024).
• Danyelle Khmara, “Arizona’s Border Security Prop Headed Toward Passing” (Arizona Public Media, November 5, 2024).
• Melvis Acosta, “Arizona Passes Measure to Arrest Immigrants Who Enter the Us Illegally” (Mother Jones, November 6, 2024).

The Republican Party made historic gains in south Texas’s Rio Grande Valley border region, until recently a solidly Democratic area. Rep. Mónica de la Cruz (R), the first Republican elected in the region in many years, won re-election. Rep. Henry Cuéllar (D), who is under indictment on bribery charges, won re-election by a narrower margin than ever. No call has been made in Rep. Vicente González’s (D) re-election bid.

• Nadia Lathan, “Republicans Again Make Gains on Texas-Mexico Border and Hang Onto a Us House Seat” (Associated Press, Associated Press, November 6, 2024).

New Mexico’s border House seat remains in the hands of Rep. Gabe Vásquez (D), by about a 4-point margin.

• Julian Resendiz, “New Mexico Congressional Race Remains Too Close to Call” (Border Report, November 6, 2024).

Fearing an end to CBP One, asylum access, and other migration pathways after Trump’s January 20 inauguration, approximately 2,500 to 3,000 people formed a “caravan” in Mexico’s southern border zone city of Tapachula yesterday. We can expect an increase in migration over the next few months as people seek to get to U.S. soil before the new administration starts closing down existing pathways.

• “Migrant Caravan of 3,000 Heads North in Mexico” (Reuters, Voice of America, November 5, 2024).
• Breidy Hernandez, “Cientos de Migrantes se Unen en Caravana Hacia Ee. Uu. Ante Temor de Nuevas Restricciones Migratorias” (Criterio (Honduras), November 5, 2024).
• Jennie Taer, Ronny Reyes, Toby James Canham, “Caravan of 3,000 Migrants Rushes for Us Border on Election Day: ‘One Last F–K You to America’” (The New York Post, November 5, 2024).

People at Tijuana migrant shelters shared with EFE their fear of being stranded by the electoral result after long journeys to the U.S.-Mexico border region.

• “Nervios en Albergues Migratorios de la Frontera Durante Elecciones Eu” (EFE, Milenio (Mexico), November 5, 2024).

InsightCrime reported on the U.S. Treasury Department’s recent sanctions against four people and two companies tied to the Ciudad Juárez-based “La Línea” criminal organization. Treasury holds them responsible for colluding with the Jalisco New Generation Cartel to smuggle fentanyl, a drug that U.S. authorities have overwhelmingly seized at California and Arizona border crossings, not the Ciudad Juárez-El Paso area.

• Victoria Dittmar, “United States Targets Mexico’s the Linea Gang Over Fentanyl” (InsightCrime, November 5, 2024).

Analyses and Feature Stories

Border Report’s Julián Resendiz talked to political and economic leaders in Ciudad Juárez, including Mayor Cruz Pérez Cuellar, before the U.S. voting began. They worry about Donald Trump’s tariff threats, Mexico’s ability to absorb millions of forcibly deported people, threats to “close” the border, and rhetoric bullying Mexico. A finance sector leader doubted Mexico’s ability to meet Trump’s demands to secure its northern border, since the country has been unable to get a handle on its own public security challenges. Mayor Pérez Cuéllar concluded, however, that “the level of interdependence between the two countries is so large that it is practically impossible” to break.

• Julian Resendiz, “Trump Still Brings Jitters to Leaders South of Border” (Border Report, November 6, 2024).

“It’s not going to happen. It’s just not. It’s going to be an empty campaign promise, to be honest with you,” Thaddeus Cleveland, the sheriff of Terrell County, Texas (Fort Worth), a Trump supporter, told Nexstar about the Trump administration’s plans for a “mass deportation” campaign.

• Ryan Chandler, “Texas Senators, Law Enforcement Downplay Trump’s Promise of ‘Mass Deportation’” (Nexstar, Border Report, November 5, 2024).

At the Border Chronicle, Melissa del Bosque interviewed Nicole Ramos of the Tijuana and San Diego-based assistance and advocacy group Al Otro Lado. The organization is named in a lawsuit that brought an end to CBP’s policy of “metering” asylum seekers (blocking all but a few from approaching ports of entry). Still, Ramos observed, “Anytime an organization like Al Otro Lado, ACLU, or Raices gets a win on asylum access, the U.S. government creates another policy to evade their obligations under that decision.”

• Melissa del Bosque, “On Building Human Rights in the Borderlands: A Q&A With Nicole Ramos” (The Border Chronicle, November 5, 2024).

In New York, Documented spoke to Venezuelan asylum seekers who fear that Donald Trump’s administration will force them to leave the United States without a hearing.

• Lam Thuy Vo, Lucia Cholakian Herrera, “‘We Hear They Are Going to Deport Us Immediately’: Venezuelan Migrants Fear the Worst if Donald Trump Wins the Election” (Documented, November 5, 2024).

At The Conversation, Ragini Shah gave a brief overview of the history of the U.S. Border Patrol, concluding that the agency’s culture continues to be “rough” and soft on human rights abusers within the ranks. “Giving the Border Patrol ever more money, agents and higher-tech equipment only spurs more violence and lawlessness,” Shah concluded.

• Ragini Shah, “Beefing Up Border Patrol Is a Bipartisan Goal, but the Agency Has a Troubled History of Violence and Impunity” (Suffolk University, The Conversation, November 5, 2024).

Although the number of people migrating through the Darién Gap region has declined in 2024, the number of minors migrating unaccompanied has increased, according to a Panama-based UNICEF official. Last year, about 3,300 children walked through the Darién jungles unaccompanied. During the first nine months of 2024, 3,800 children have done so. Most are Venezuelan.

• Luna Perdomo, “Los Ninos Venezolanos No Acompanados Son los Que Mas Migran por el Darien” (Tal Cual (Venezuela), November 6, 2024).

Speaking to advocates and experts from Mexico’s northern and southern borders, an Al Jazeera video program looked at the Mexican government’s undeclared but vigorous 2024 policy of blocking migrants and busing them to the country’s south.

• Sandra Gathmann, “Mexico’s Migrant Crackdown” (Start Here, Al Jazeera, November 5, 2024).

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Developments

For the second time since October 1, Mexican soldiers have shot and killed migrants. Members of Mexico’s recently created National Guard, much of whose personnel were transferred from the Army, opened fire on a vehicle near Tecate, Baja California, along the border east of Tijuana. Two Colombian migrants were killed in the November 2 incident, and four others were wounded.

Mexico’s Defense Secretariat (SEDENA, the Army and Air Force) contended that the soldiers fired their weapons in self-defense after alleged smugglers fired on them. Witnesses dispute that: “We had no weapons, we are not criminals, they were never shot at,” a survivor told the Tijuana-based investigative publication Zeta. Witnesses say that, before aiding the wounded, the guard members spent a few minutes cleaning up their spent ammunition cartridges, which, if true, would constitute altering a crime scene.

Three guard members who opened fire have been taken off duty while investigations proceed.

On October 1, soldiers opened fire on a vehicle carrying migrants, killing six. In that case, too, SEDENA claimed that the soldiers responded after hearing “detonations,” though witnesses disputed that.

• “Guardia Nacional Acribilla a Migrantes Colombianos en Tecate.“ (Revista Zeta (Tijuana Mexico), November 4, 2024).
• Mara Yanez, ““Repelieron Agresion Armada”: Sedena Ante Asesinato de Migrantes por Gn en la Rumorosa“ (Revista Zeta (Tijuana Mexico), November 4, 2024).
• “Mueren Dos Migrantes Colombianos en Supuesto Enfrentamiento Entre Guardia Nacional y Civiles Armados en Tecate, Baja California“ (Animal Politico (Mexico), November 4, 2024).
• Natalie Venegas, “Mexico’s National Guard Kills 2 Colombians, Wounds 4 Others Near Us Border“ (Newsweek, November 4, 2024).
• Alejandro Santos Cid, “El Ejercito Argumenta Que Mato a Dos Migrantes Colombianos en Defensa Propia en Baja California“ (El Pais (Spain), November 4, 2024).

On Monday, the final day before Election Day, Republican candidate Donald Trump vowed, if elected, to impose a 25 percent tariff on Mexican goods, escalating to 100 percent, if Mexico’s government does not act to stop migrants and fentanyl from crossing its northern border. He said that if he wins today’s elections, his first call will be to Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum to convey this threat.

• Jeff Stein, “Trump Threatens Up to 100 Percent Tariffs on Mexico Over Immigration“ (The Washington Post, November 4, 2024).
• Jesus Mesa, “Trump Reveals Who His First Call Would Be as President“ (Newsweek, November 4, 2024).
• “Trump Warns, if Elected, He’ll Impose Tariffs on Mexico, China Over Fentanyl“ (Reuters, U.S. News and World Report, November 4, 2024).
• Brett Samuels, “Trump Vows 25 Percent Tariff on Mexico Unless It Cracks Down on Border Crossings“ (The Hill, November 4, 2024).
• “Trump Amenaza Con Imponer 25% de Aranceles a Mexico Si No Frena el Paso De “Criminales y Drogas”; Se Queja por “Invasion” de Migrantes“ (El Universal (Mexico), November 4, 2024).

On the eve of the U.S. election, CBS News spoke with migrants awaiting CBP One appointments in shelters in Nogales, Sonora. They fear a Donald Trump victory today would end the CBP One program. “They’re very scared. They think that the asylum system is going to close,” said immigration attorney Alba Jaramillo.

• Camilo Montoya-Galvez, Suvro Banerji, ““They’re Very Scared”: Migrants Anxiously Monitor U.S. Election, Fearing Trump Win“ (CBS News, November 5, 2024).

Reporting from just north of Mexico City, the Los Angeles Times Patrick McDonnell spoke with migrants determined to come to the United States regardless of who is elected. “If you’re a migrant, you’re going to suffer whoever is president,” a Honduran man said.

• Patrick J. Mcdonnell, “U.S.-Bound Migrants Say the Election Doesn’t Matter: ‘You’re Going to Suffer Whoever Is President’“ (The Los Angeles Times, November 4, 2024).

A measure on the ballot in Arizona would make it a state crime to cross the international border without authorization, the Associated Press reported. Proposition 314 resembles S.B. 4, the Texas law–currently on hold facing legal challenges–that could empower law enforcement to enforce a separate state-level immigration policy, and to stop anyone on suspicion of having crossed the border illegally.

• Gabriel Sandoval, “Voters in Battleground Arizona to Decide if Local Agencies Can Police Illegal Immigration“ (Associated Press, Associated Press, November 5, 2024).

Speaking with Cronkite News, border-area political and law-enforcement leaders voiced reluctance to finding themselves having to use scarce resources to enforce immigration laws, a mission for which they are not trained, if Proposition 314 passes.

• Gabriel Garza, “Arizona Proposition 314: Border Officials Weigh in on Immigration Enforcement“ (Cronkite News, November 4, 2024).

At one of the busiest official border crossings between Colombia and Venezuela, authorities are measuring an increase in the number of Venezuelan citizens departing the country. “What is undeniable is that the exodus is still latent along this border and has increased after the electoral process of July 28,” reported the Venezuelan daily La Nación. The paper referred to presidential elections almost certainly won by the political opposition, followed by a wave of repression carried out by the current regime, which denies that result.

• Jonathan Maldonado, “Aumentan Viajeros Que Sellan Sus Pasaportes en San Antonio“ (La Nación (Venezuela), November 4, 2024).

Analyses and Feature Stories

Thomas Cartwright at Witness at the Border published his latest monthly report on Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) deportation flights. The agency removed migrants on an average of 5.3 flights per weekday in October, up slightly from September but down from over 6.0 per weekday during the summer. Fewer migrant apprehensions at the border are the likeliest reason for the drop. The top removal destination countries were Guatemala (37 flights in October), Honduras (20), Mexico (20), El Salvador (11), Colombia (9), and Ecuador (9).

The report noted that Panama operated 25 deportation flights between August 1 and November 2, with 989 people—about 1.5 percent of Darién Gap migration—taken to Colombia (19), Ecuador (5), and India (1).

• Thomas H. Cartwright, “Ice Air Report October 2024 and Last 12 Months“ (Witness at the Border, November 4, 2024).

At InsightCrime, Steven Dudley and Parker Asmann highlighted the sharp contrasts between two Arizona border-zone sheriffs. Mark Dannels of Cochise County is an outspoken border and migration hardliner who often appears on Fox News and as a Republican congressional hearing witness. David Hathaway, from neighboring Santa Cruz County (which includes Nogales), favors a more humanitarian approach that prevents harm to migrants.

• Parker Asmann, Steven Dudley, “Two Us-Mexico Border Sheriffs, Two Visions on Immigration and Security“ (InsightCrime, November 4, 2024).

On the Right

• Adam Shaw, “Harris-Trump Showdown: Where They Stand on This Top Issue for Voters“ (Fox News, November 4, 2024).

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Developments

Citing “preliminary figures,” Reuters reported that Border Patrol apprehended about 54,000 migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border in October. That is almost identical to September’s apprehension number (53,858) and very similar to July’s (56,400) and August’s (58,009).

Dual crackdowns—Mexico’s stepped-up blocking and southward busing of migrants, and the Biden administration’s June asylum restrictions—continue to keep apprehensions at their lowest level since September 2020. However, the number stopped declining months ago.

• Ted Hesson, “Us Border Arrests Remained Lower in October Amid Biden Asylum Restrictions, Source Says” (Reuters, msn.com, November 1, 2024).

On October 31, Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino said that the number of migrants transiting the treacherous Darién Gap would likely be “a little more than 21,542.” That would be a modest drop in Darién Gap migration from 25,111 in September. Citizens of Venezuela remain by far the number-one nationality.

Mulino said that, mainly with U.S. support, Panama has run 23 deportation flights since early August, sending about 800 people primarily to Colombia and Ecuador but some to China and India. The president, who took office in July, reiterated the terms of an October 25 decree instituting steep fines for people, like Darién border-crossers, who enter the country without authorization.

• “Panama: Mas de 196 Mil Migrantes Venezolanos Cruzaron el Darien en Lo Que Va de Ano” (Tal Cual (Venezuela), November 1, 2024).
• “Gobierno de Panama Sancionara Con Millonarias Multas a Migrantes Que Crucen el Darien Desde Colombia” (NTN24, October 31, 2024).

The U.S. government sent a deportation flight to Haiti on October 31 with 77 people aboard, even as a gang offensive is intensifying, the Miami Herald reported. On October 26, a gang coalition called Viv Ansanm looted and burned a Missionaries of Charity convent and hospital in Port-au-Prince, which Mother Teresa had inaugurated in 1979.

• Jacqueline Charles, Syra Ortiz Blanes, “U.S. Deportation Flight Lands in Haiti Amid Spreading Violence, Attack on Catholic Nuns” (The Miami Herald, October 31, 2024).

In Mexico’s southern border-zone city of Tapachula, Chiapas, hundreds of people with confirmed appointments at U.S. border ports of entry, made using the CBP One app, are “saturating” the local offices of Mexico’s migration agency (National Migration Institute, INM), La Jornada reported. They are demanding that the agency issue permits allowing them to transit Mexican territory to attend their appointments. It is unclear whether the backlog owes to any changes at INM, which has offered to coordinate protected travel from Chiapas for at least some of those with appointments.

• Edgar H. Clemente, “Saturan Migrantes Oficina del Inm en Chiapas” (La Jornada (Mexico), October 31, 2024).

Analyses and Feature Stories

As migrant smuggling organizations have become wealthier and more sophisticated, U.S. law enforcement agencies are struggling to catch up, facing resource, judicial, and intelligence gaps, concluded a Washington Post investigation, focusing on a case in Guatemala, by Mexico-Central America correspondent Mary Beth Sheridan. U.S. agencies are also hampered by decades of focus specifically on drug trafficking instead of human smuggling, and by partner nations’ official corruption.

• Mary Beth Sheridan, “As Smuggling Rings Made Billions From Migrants, the U.S. Was Sidelined” (The Washington Post, November 1, 2024).

Five organizations, including border-area service providers, released a report about climate-related migration, finding that the expected increase in people fleeing climate change is now happening. The report provides data on responses from over 3,600 migrants whom Al Otro Lado, Haitian Bridge Alliance, International Refugee Assistance Project, and Las Americas Immigrant Advocacy Center have served, including over 3,000 from the Americas. Of those from the Americas, 43 percent “reported experiencing environmental disasters such as hurricanes, droughts, extreme heat, and floods in their home countries.” The report recommends expanding legal immigration pathways for climate refugees and victims.

• “Groundbreaking Data Report Documents the Impact of Climate Change Disasters on People Seeking Immigration Relief in the United States” (Al Otro Lado, Haitian Bridge Alliance, International Refugee Assistance Project, Las Americas Immigrant Advocacy Center, International Refugee Assistance Project, October 31, 2024).

The International Refugee Assistance Project issued a “practice advisory” clarifying that Cuban, Haitian, Nicaraguan, and Venezuelan recipients of two years’ humanitarian parole, under a Biden administration initiative that has helped reduce border apprehensions from those nationalities, still have the right to apply for a renewal of their parole status. Many descriptions of an early October Biden administration policy change have erroneously interpreted it as refusing parole renewals; the change, in fact, specifies that while there is no “re-parole process,” it remains true that “any individual parolee may apply to renew their parole.”

• “Practice Advisory: Chnv Parolees May Apply to Renew Parole Even Without a Parole Renewal Process” (International Refugee Assistance Project, October 31, 2024).

In a report from San Diego and Tijuana at KQED News, Tyche Hendricks explained the recent decline in the number of migrants arriving at the border, the crackdowns and legal pathways that enabled it, human rights concerns, and the likelihood that lower numbers might persist.

• Tyche Hendricks, “Despite Election Rhetoric, Illegal Border Crossings Sit at 4-Year Low” (KQED News, November 1, 2024).

The San Diego-based iNewSource reported from Tijuana where large numbers of migrants, including Mexican citizens fleeing violence in their own country, are enduring long waits for appointments at U.S. ports of entry using the CBP One app. While they wait, migrant children are showing signs of regression and trauma, while parents struggle with emotional distress. One family interviewed by reporter Sofía Mejías-Pascoe has waited over a year for a CBP One appointment. “Asylum isn’t something you can schedule,” said Christina Asencio of Human Rights First.

• Sofia Mejias-Pascoe, “Asylum Seekers in Mexico Wait Months on End to Enter U.S.” (inewsource, November 1, 2024).

At the Border Chronicle, Todd Miller reflected on the prominent role that the border and its barrier continue to play in a third consecutive U.S. election campaign. “Contemplating Trump’s rhetoric decrying U.S. ‘open borders’ while in the shadow of the wall is absurd,” Miller concluded.

• Todd Miller, “The Election and the Future of the Wall” (The Border Chronicle, October 31, 2024).

At the Progressive, Jeff Abbott examined the harm that a “mass deportation” campaign, which U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump is promising, would do to economic and political stability in Central America. Sending millions of Central American migrants back to impoverished countries, thus halting remittance flows, “would be the worst catastrophe that could possibly occur. It would be worse than a major earthquake,” said a former president of El Salvador’s central bank.

• Jeff Abbott, “What Trump’s Plan to Deport Millions of Immigrants Will Mean for Central America” (The Progressive, October 31, 2024).

At USA Today, Nick Penzenstadler and Lauren Villagrán examined how much the federal government might have to pay to carry out Trump’s plan, and how handsomely its private contractors would profit.

• Lauren Villagran, Nick Penzenstadler, “Trump’s Deportation Plan: A Cost to Taxpayers, Billions for Big Business” (USA Today, October 31, 2024).

The Associated Press profiled Sam Schultz, a 69-year-old volunteer who shuns politics and doggedly provides daily assistance to migrants waiting to be processed for asylum in the cold, rugged hills near the border around Jacumba Springs, California.

• Gregory Bull, “A Quaker Who Helps Migrants Says Us Presidential Election Will Make No Difference at the Border” (Associated Press, Associated Press, October 31, 2024).

On the Right

• Tara Mergener, “Biden’s Border Policies Under Fire as App Paroles 800,000 Migrants Into the Us” (CBN News, October 31, 2024).

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Developments

Smugglers abandoned four unaccompanied migrant children on an inflatable raft in the Rio Grande near Brownsville, Texas, Border Patrol reported.

• Billal Rahman, “Border Agents Rescue Four Migrant Children From Raft on Rio Grande“ (Newsweek, October 30, 2024).

CBP reported that a man whom officers shot and wounded at Nogales, Arizona’s DeConcini port of entry on October 16 had 3,140 rounds of AK-47-style rifle ammunition stashed in his vehicle’s spare tire.

• Paul Ingram, “Man Shot at Nogales Border Crossing Had 3k Rounds of Ammo Stashed in Spare Tire“ (The Tucson Sentinel (Tucson Arizona), October 30, 2024).

Fox News covered the Trump campaign’s pledge to take down billboards in Texas, posted by the Department of Homeland Security’s Office of the Immigration Detention Ombudsman (OIDO), reminding people with relatives in immigration custody that those relatives have recourse if they are being abused. Republican legislators have sought to defund and shut down OIDO, which was created in response to 2019 Democratic-led legislation.

• Adam Shaw, Bill Melugin, “‘Coming Down’: Trump Vows to Dismantle Billboards Pushing Rights for Illegal Immigrants if He Wins“ (Fox News, October 30, 2024).

Texas’s state government has named the Tren de Aragua, a Venezuelan criminal organization, a “tier 1” gang threat, alongside “notorious prison gangs the Texas Syndicate and the Mexican Mafia, as well as the Aryan Brotherhood of Texas, the Crips, the Bloods, and the Latin Kings,” according to the Dallas Morning News.

• Zacharia Washington, “What We Know About the Rise of Venezuelan Gang Activity in Texas“ (The Dallas Morning News, October 30, 2024).

Analyses and Feature Stories

Yesterday’s WOLA-organized discussion of state forces’ human rights abuse at the Texas-Mexico border, with experts and advocates from Human Rights Watch, Hope Border Institute, Eagle Pass Border Coalition, and Alliance San Diego, is viewable on YouTube. Border Report published highlights of the event.

• “Texas’s Operation Lone Star: Excessive Use of Force on the Borderline” (YouTube, October 30, 2024).
• Julian Resendiz, “Texas’ Border Takeover a Factor in Migrant, Us Citizen Deaths, Activists Say“ (Border Report, October 30, 2024).

Writing for Puente News Collaborative and the Arizona Center for Investigative Reporting, Alfredo Corchado profiled Arvin West, the sheriff of Hudspeth County, Texas, just east of El Paso. A prominent border hardliner, West has become disillusioned with the politicization of the national debate on border security and migration and now supports more pragmatic, local approaches.

• Alfredo Corchado, “A Lawman’s Change of Heart“ (Puente News Collaborative, Arizona Center for Investigative Reporting, October 30, 2024).

A detailed analysis by Lillian Perlmutter at Rolling Stone discussed the harder-line turn in the Biden administration’s border policies, including strict limits on asylum access. “In their attempt to find a message that resonates with the American public,” Perlmutter wrote, “Democrats have forced hundreds of thousands of migrants into potentially deadly situations.”

• Lillian Perlmutter, “Democrats Are, in Fact, Cracking Down at the Border“ (Rolling Stone, October 30, 2024).

At America: The Jesuit Review, David Agren covered the Mexican government’s undeclared but vigorous effort, launched at the beginning of the year, to block migrants attempting to transit Mexico’s territory and reroute many of them to the country’s south. Agren added that many people migrating in Mexico feel an urgency to obtain CBP One appointments before Donald Trump, if he wins the November 5 elections, terminates the program. Brian Strassburger, a Jesuit priest working in south Texas and Tamaulipas, Mexico, said that the wait for CBP One appointments is now often seven months for non-Mexican migrants and ten months for Mexicans.

• David Agren, “The Other Border Crisis: How Mexico Is Enforcing Migration Policies Ahead of the U.S. Election“ (America The Jesuit Review, October 31, 2024).

Reporting from El Paso and Ciudad Juárez, Agénce France Presse noted how the Biden administration’s restrictions on asylum between ports of entry have reduced unauthorized border crossings and channeled migrants into long waits for CBP One appointments.

• Herika Martinez, Sofia Miselem, “As Us Election Rhetoric Heats Up, Illegal Border Crossings Fall“ (Agence France Presse, Barron’s, October 31, 2024).

Reflecting on a recent visit to the Darién Gap in the Los Angeles Times, Human Rights Watch director Tirana Hassan called for more robust U.S. measures against Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro and his inner circle, and to do much more to “uphold the rights of migrants and asylum seekers fleeing the crisis in Venezuela.” Hassan laments that instead, the Biden administration “has put Venezuelans in further danger and undercut their access to asylum.”

• Tirana Hassan, “What Venezuela’s Turn Away From Democracy Means for U.S. Migration“ (Human Rights Watch, The Los Angeles Times, October 31, 2024).

Data that the Cato Institute obtained via the Freedom of Information Act reveals that the Trump administration “released nearly 58,184 noncitizens with criminal records, including 8,620 violent criminals and 306 murderers,” often to clear detention space for asylum seekers arriving at the border. Cato’s David Bier noted that the Title 42 pandemic expulsions policy, which the Trump administration launched in March 2020, “removed consequences for convicted criminals who crossed the border illegally, enabling them to try again and again.”

• David J. Bier, “New Data on Trump’s Border Security Record: Releasing Criminals to Jail Asylum Seekers“ (The Cato Institute, October 30, 2024).

Writing for Mother Jones, Isabela Dias covered immigrant rights defense groups’ scenario planning and preparations for responding to a possible Donald Trump victory in Tuesday’s elections. “Strategic litigation is only part of their calculus. Another huge component is community education and readiness.”

• Isabela Dias, “Immigrant Rights Advocates Are Preparing For “The Worst” Under Trump. Will It Be Enough?“ (Mother Jones, October 30, 2024).

At Washington Monthly, Bill Scher looked at the data and concluded that the Trump administration was more effective at curbing legal migration than reducing unauthorized migration to the United States.

• Bill Scher, “Trump Won’t Tell You How He Takes Aim at Legal Immigration“ (Washington Monthly, October 31, 2024).

Reporting from North Carolina, the Australian network ABC concluded that Republican political candidates are having some success spreading the inaccurate belief that migrants bring fentanyl across the U.S.-Mexico border. (More than 90 percent is seized from vehicles, and more than 80 percent of those arrested at ports of entry are U.S. citizens.)

• Adam Harvey, Rahni Sadler, “‘Fentanyl Does Not Discriminate’ Who It Kills but Trump Is Conflating It With Migration to Win Votes“ (ABC (Australia), October 31, 2024).

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Developments

Associated Press reporter María Verza reported from Mexico’s southern border with Guatemala, where she found “migrants continue pouring into Mexico” but organized crime—which has vastly ramped up ransom kidnappings in the area—is doing more to “manage the flow” of migrants than Mexican authorities. Released kidnap victims say that criminals are holding about 500 people at a time at a ranch near the border town of Ciudad Hidalgo; they stamp the skin of those who pay for their release, while those who cannot pay are often sexually assaulted.

• Maria Verza, “How Mexican Cartels Manage the Flow of Migrants on Their Way to the Us Border” (Associated Press, Associated Press, October 30, 2024).

At Mexico’s northern border, the Ciudad Juárez newspaper El Norte reported on a proliferation of “safe houses” where smugglers or kidnappers hold migrants, “packing them in like sardines.” In recent years, the report found, these houses have become more common in more central urban neighborhoods, not just on the city’s outskirts.

• Teofilo Alvarado, “Las Casas del Horror en Juarez” (Norte (Ciudad Juarez Mexico), October 29, 2024).

Texas’s state government has made a second large land purchase along the border so that it might build border barriers on the properties. Following news yesterday of the purchase of a 1,400-acre ranch along the border in Starr County, in the southern part of the state, the Texas General Land Office revealed that it has bought the 353,785-acre Brewster Ranch, bordering Big Bend National Park. “The ranch had been listed for $245,678,330,” according to the Land Report.

• Eric o’keefe, “Texas General Land Office Buys 353,785-Acre Brewster Ranch” (The Land Report, October 29, 2024).
• Sandra Sanchez, “State Buys South Texas Ranch to Build Its Own Border Wall” (Border Report, October 29, 2024).

Cochise County, a border county in southeast Arizona, held a dedication ceremony for a new multi-million-dollar “Border Operations Center” to support local, state, and federal law enforcement agencies. At the ceremony, Gov. Katie Hobbs, a Democrat, criticized “the federal government’s failure to address” border issues.

• Cameron Arcand, “Cochise County Gets New Border Operations Center” (The Center Square, October 29, 2024).

Analyses and Feature Stories

WOLA, together with Alliance San Diego, the Eagle Pass Border Coalition, Hope Border Institute, and Human Rights Watch, is hosting a webinar about human rights and state border security forces’ use of force along the borderline in Texas. It starts at 5:00 Eastern today, and registration is open.

• “Texas’s Operation Lone Star: Abuse on the Borderline” (WOLA, October 30, 2024).

Young people unable to find decent employment, many of them well educated, are heavily represented in the population of Colombian citizens emigrating, according to a report from Colombia’s La Silla Vacía. Colombia was the number-six nationality of migrants encountered at the U.S.-Mexico border in fiscal 2024. The article also cites a recent worsening of citizen security as a reason for Colombians choosing to leave.

• Michael Rendon Vera, “Violencia, Incertidumbre y Mas Ingresos Impulsan un Creciente Exodo de Colombianos” (La Silla Vacia (Colombia), October 30, 2024).

Border Report contrasted the views of conservatives who want the State Department to push countries along the migration route to do more to block people from coming to the United States, with the views of rights advocates who contend that the solution lies in expanding legal pathways for safer migration, including through reform of U.S. immigration laws.

• Julian Resendiz, “State Department Urged to Step Up Role in Stopping Illegal Migration” (Border Report, October 29, 2024).

On the Right

• Tara Mergener, “Cbn Exclusive: Border Agent Speaks Out on Ongoing Southern Border Crisis” (CBN News, October 29, 2024).

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Developments

Mexico’s army reported seizing over 900 kilograms (1,984 pounds) of cocaine in San Luis Rio Colorado, Sonora, a border town near Yuma, Arizona. This one seizure is equivalent to one-fifteenth of all cocaine that Customs and Border Protection (CBP) reported seizing at the border throughout fiscal 2024 (30,383 pounds, or 13,781 kilograms).

• Juan Carlos Cartas, “¡Fuerte Golpe al Narco! Aseguran Mas de 900 Kg de Cocaina en San Luis Rio Colorado, Sonora“ (Proyecto Puente (Mexico), October 28, 2024).

On Friday, hospitals in Texas must begin collecting information about their patients’ citizenship status, under an executive order from Gov. Greg Abbott (R).

• Ryan Chandler, “Texas Hospitals to Start Checking Citizenship Status This Week“ (Border Report, October 28, 2024).

Abbott’s state government has purchased a 1,400-acre ranch along the border in Starr County, in the southern part of Texas, where it plans to build a new length of border wall, Fox News reported.

• Adam Shaw, “‘Shut It Down’: Red State Makes Massive Land Buy to Ramp Up Border Wall Efforts Amid Migrant Surge“ (Fox News, October 28, 2024).

Analyses and Feature Stories

Reuters reported on Mexico’s policy, begun in January, of blocking in-transit migrants and systematically transporting many to the country’s south. The undeclared but vigorous effort is a central reason why the number of migrants arriving at the U.S.-Mexico border is down during the 2024 U.S. election campaign. Reuters revealed that Mexico’s migration authority has paid over $65 million to one charter bus company since last year.

• Diego Ore, Jose Luis Gonzalez, Laura Gottesdiener, Ted Hesson, “How Mexico’s Migrant Crackdown Influences the U.S. Election“ (Reuters, Reuters, October 28, 2024).

A New York Times analysis concluded that regardless of who wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election, curbs on the right to access asylum at the U.S.-Mexico border are likely to remain in place or become even stiffer. As a result, many asylum seekers in North America and Europe “are finding themselves increasingly stranded in desperate, unsafe conditions like camps or crowded boats.”

• Hamed Aleaziz, Jazmine Ulloa, “Under Trump or Harris, U.S. Asylum Curbs Are Likely to Endure“ (The New York Times, October 28, 2024).

At Vox, Nicole Narea evaluated Donald Trump’s oft-repeated campaign promise by examining past attempts at “mass deportation” and past challenges to the overuse of wartime powers.

• Nicole Narea, “Trump’s Mass Deportation Plan: Would It Actually Work?“ (Vox, October 29, 2024).

“Fearmongering over the threat that illegal immigration poses to native-born white women is misleading at best,” David Kirkpatrick wrote at the New Yorker. Still, Republican candidates and Fox News are winning over some voters in close states by amplifying cases like the murder of Georgia nursing student Laken Riley, allegedly by a man who recently migrated from Venezuela.

• David D. Kirkpatrick, “Will Laken Riley’s Murder Tip Georgia?“ (The New Yorker, October 29, 2024).

Anti-immigrant attitudes could also affect the election outcome in Wisconsin, a swing state where many migrants have settled in response to unmet labor needs, Alfredo Corchado and Dudley Althaus wrote at the San Antonio Express-News. However, they find that the state’s small Latino vote could counteract those attitudes.

• Alfredo Corchado, Dudley Althaus, “Immigration Could Shift Presidential Vote in Wisconsin, 1,000 Miles From Border“ (The San Antonio Express-News, October 28, 2024).

Similarly, the New York Times looked at how candidates in New York state have sought to gain an electoral advantage from a large increase in migrant arrivals to New York City during the Biden administration.

• Luis Ferre-Sadurni, “How New York City’s Migrant Crisis Became a Potent Campaign Issue“ (The New York Times, October 28, 2024).

At Caracas Chronicles, Carlos Rodríguez López wrote about how “unsustained allegations about an exponential rise of violent crime brought by Venezuelan gangs” have made Venezuelan migrants a “political football” in the 2024 election campaign. Only 35 percent of people of Venezuelan origin in the United States have U.S. citizenship, Rodríguez López points out: many are recent arrivals, and most cannot vote.

• Carlos Rodriguez Lopez, “Venezuelans: The Political Football of the U.S. Election“ (Caracas Chronicles, October 28, 2024).
• Tom Leonard, “How ‘la Barbie’ and Her Venezuelan Thugs Could Swing the Us Election“ (The Daily Mail (UK), October 28, 2024).

The New York Times’s Miriam Jordan told the story of José, a sixth-grader living with his parents in Houston, whom Border Patrol agents had separated from his family in May 2018, at the height of the Trump administration’s family separation policy. “I don’t trust anybody,” the boy said. “I just trust my mom and dad.”

• Miriam Jordan, “He Was 5 When a Trump Immigration Policy Separated His Family. He Hasn’t Forgotten.“ (The New York Times, October 28, 2024).

On the Right

• Elizabeth Elkind, Matteo Cina, “Scalise Details Trump’s Vision on Securing Border in First 100 Days“ (Fox News, October 28, 2024).
• Chris Nesi, Jennie Taer, “Kamala Harris’ Grim Border Czar Legacy: 2,700 Migrants Who Died Crossing Into Us“ (The New York Post, October 28, 2024).
• Benedict Smith, Ben Butcher, “The True Scale of Migrant Crossings Under Kamala Harris Revealed“ (The Telegraph (UK), October 28, 2024).
• Brandon Judd, “Congress Must Act: America’s Safety Hinges on Border Security, Not Presidential Promises“ (Newsweek, October 28, 2024).

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Developments

Panama’s president issued a decree establishing fines of $300 to as much as $5,000 for people who enter the country irregularly through the border with Colombia: the Darién Gap jungle route that nearly 800,000 migrants have traversed since 2023. The fine may be adjusted according to migrants’ state of “vulnerability.” Those who do not pay may be prohibited from moving on to Costa Rica and subject to deportation.

EFE reported that “as of October 13, 274,444 irregular travelers have arrived in Panama through the jungle.” That means 11,148 people migrated through the Darién during those 13 days, or 858 per day. That is a very slight increase over the 837 per day reported in September.

• Henry Cardenas P., “Panama Anuncia Multas a Migrantes Que Ingresen de Forma Irregular al Pais“ (La Prensa (Panama), October 26, 2024).
• “Panama Multara a Extranjeros Que Entren Irregularmente al Pais por la Frontera Con Colombia“ (EFE, Infobae, October 26, 2024).

The human rights ombudsmen’s offices of Colombia and Panama signed a “letter of binational understanding” pledging increased cooperation on humanitarian and human rights monitoring in the Darién Gap region, where large but untold numbers of migrants perish or are assaulted, robbed, and raped by criminal groups.

• “Firma de Carta de Entendimiento Binacional Entre las Defensorias del Pueblo de Colombia y Panama Sobre Migracion y Derechos Humanos“ (Defensoria del Pueblo (Government of Colombia), October 25, 2024).

A Border Patrol vehicle pursuit southeast of San Diego ended with a crash, killing two citizens of Mexico aboard, on October 22.

• “Migrants Killed After Being Ejected From Smuggling Vehicle“ (U.S. Customs and Border Protection, October 25, 2024).
• Jayne Yutig, “Cbp: 2 Suspects Killed in Pursuit Crash on Sr-905 Involving Border Patrol Agents“ (KFMB San Diego, msn.com, October 25, 2024).

The population of Venezuelan migrants in Mexico City—many awaiting CBP One appointments at the U.S.-Mexico border—may have increased 13-fold from 2021 to 2023, judging from a municipal welfare agency’s count of the number of people served, Milenio reported. Many are in the central district of Cuauhtémoc, finding work paying about $60-120 per week.

• Claudia Solera, “Aumentan Numero Venezolanos Migrantes en Cdmx; Se Concentran en Cdmx“ (Milenio (Mexico), October 27, 2024).

In Mexico’s border state of Chihuahua, the state government’s security department established a police task force to track the activities of Tren de Aragua, the Venezuelan organized crime group. At the federal level, the Secretary of Security and Citizen Protection, Omar García Harfuch, said on October 25 that while security forces have arrested some Tren de Aragua members, “we do not have this group registered as the main generator of violence.”

• Blanca Elizabeth Carmona, “Crea Grupo Especial para Vigilar ‘Tren de Aragua’ en Chihuahua“ (Milenio (Mexico), October 28, 2024).
• “Mexico Nego Que el Tren de Aragua Sea un Importante Generador de Violencia en Ese Pais“ (Tal Cual (Venezuela), October 25, 2024).

Leonard Darnell George, a CBP officer found guilty of taking bribes to allow drugs to cross the border through California ports of entry, was sentenced to 23 years in prison. “Prosecutors allege George was so entrenched with the drug traffickers that one trafficking associate took a selfie photograph of himself wearing George’s CBP uniform jacket,” reported San Diego’s NBC affiliate.

• “Ex-Cbp Officer Sentenced for Taking Bribes to Let Drugs Across Us-Mexico Border“ (City News Service, NBC San Diego, October 25, 2024).

Analyses and Feature Stories

CBS News’s 60 Minutes program aired a segment about Republican candidate Donald Trump’s’ plan to carry out a mass deportation campaign if elected. Tom Homan, who was the acting director of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) during Trump’s presidency, said that separating migrant families “needs to be considered, absolutely.”

CBS looked at the last time the U.S. government carried out mass sweeps to deport people–during the Eisenhower administration, an example that Trump cites often–and found that “this short-term show-of-force did not stop the problem.”

• Cecilia Vega, “Trump’s Mass Deportation Plan for Undocumented Immigrants Could Cost Billions a Year“ (CBS News, October 27, 2024).
• Brit Mccandless Farmer, “The Blueprint of Trump’s Deportation Plan: A Questionable Approach by Eisenhower“ (CBS News, October 27, 2024).

The Associated Press reported that some children separated from their parents by the Trump administration are telling their painful stories in social media videos and pro-Kamala Harris campaign events. ACLU attorney Lee Gelernt recalled that as many as 1,000 families remain separated over six years later.

• Rebecca Santana, “Migrant Families Separated Under Trump Still Feel the Fallout and They Fear His Return to Office“ (Associated Press, Associated Press, October 26, 2024).

At the New York Review of Books, John Washington profiled a woman who fled Guatemala but is stranded in the border city of Nogales, Mexico, after being refused an opportunity to seek asylum in the United States due to Biden administration restrictions. She and her son have been kidnapped twice by criminal groups in Mexico.

• John Washington, “‘We Got Kidnapped Again’“ (The New York Review of Books, October 25, 2024).

At Foreign Affairs, veteran journalist Julia Preston found that, despite the Democratic candidate’s rightward turn on border security and immigration policy, Kamala Harris and the much harder-line Donald Trump offer policy choices that differ in “stark and consequential” ways.

• Julia Preston, “The Real Choice on Immigration“ (Foreign Affairs, October 25, 2024).

Eurasia Review spoke to Yale University sociologist Ángel Escamilla García, whose interviews with unaccompanied Central American minor children migrating through Mexico showed a significant level of knowledge of U.S. immigration law. A 17-year-old girl from Honduras said she decided not to reveal being raped during the journey “after learning that rape and other physical violence migrants suffer en route to the United States is irrelevant to their asylum applications.”

• “Risky Choices: How Us Laws Affect Migrant Children’s Journeys to Border“ (Eurasia Review, October 28, 2024).

On the Right

• Michael Lee, “Caravan Descending on Border Could Preview Migrant Rush to Sneak Into Us if Trump Wins Election“ (Fox News, October 25, 2024).
• Anna Giaritelli, “Border Patrol Union: Harris in Texas to ‘Party Like a Fool’ Instead of Apologizing for Migrant Crime“ (The Washington Examiner, October 25, 2024).

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Developments

At an Arizona rally, Republican candidate Donald Trump said that policies admitting migrants have made the United States “a garbage can for the world.”

• Marisa Iati, Meryl Kornfield, “Trump Compares Undocumented Migrants to Trash at Insult-Fueled Rallies“ (The Washington Post, October 25, 2024).

Panama’s president, José Raúl Mulino, said that he hopes to identify a third country or countries that would be willing to accept Venezuelan citizens whom Panama would deport after they cross the treacherous Darién Gap migration route. The Homeland Security attaché in the U.S. embassy to Panama told EFE that with U.S. support, air deportations of Venezuelans from the Darién may begin “in the next days, weeks at the latest.” Neither official named any possible third countries.

• “Panama Espera Que un Tercer Pais Pueda Acoger a los Migrantes Venezolanos Deportados“ (EFE, Tal Cual (Venezuela), October 24, 2024).

Panama has run nearly 20 deportation flights since early August, most of them to Colombia and Ecuador. EFE cited a U.S. embassy statement noting that the number of Colombians and Ecuadorians transiting the Darién Gap has fallen by 65 percent and 92 percent, respectively, since the flights began. (Migration from Venezuela, where the government has refused to recognize an apparent opposition victory in July 28 elections, rose 69 percent in the Darién from August to September.)

• Moncho Torres, “Eeuu: “En los Proximos Dias, Semanas”, Panama Podria Deportar Venezolanos a un Tercer Pais“ (EFE, Swissinfo.ch, October 24, 2024).

The South China Morning Post noted a 40 percent drop in border encounters with migrants from China from June to September, according to data reported by Customs and Border Protection (CBP). Beyond the Biden administration’s June asylum restrictions, the article noted that “in July, Ecuador suspended its visa-free program for Chinese travelers.” Ecuador had been the principal point of arrival on the Latin American mainland for Chinese citizens arriving by air, most of whom then traversed the Darién Gap.

• Bochen Han, “Number of Chinese Migrants at Us-Mexico Border Drops to Lowest Count of Year“ (South China Morning Post (Hong Kong), October 25, 2024).

The Honduran Congress is considering legislation that would permanently repeal a $240 fine charged to undocumented migrants seeking to transit Honduras, in exchange for permission to remain briefly in the country. Since 2022, Honduras has waived this fee to encourage migrants to register with the government, which allows them to board public buses instead of turning to smugglers. The Congress must renew the waiver periodically; it next expires on December 31.

• Breidy Hernandez, “Urgente Revision de la Ley de Migracion en Honduras: ¿se Acabara la Amnistia Migratoria?“ (Criterio (Honduras), October 24, 2024).

Analyses and Feature Stories

ProPublica published a deeply reported account from Whitewater, Wisconsin, a town that became a political flashpoint after several hundred Nicaraguan immigrants began to settle there, drawn by nearby food processing facilities in need of low-wage labor.

• Maryam Jameel, Melissa Sanchez, “What Happened in Whitewater“ (ProPublica, October 24, 2024).

“By mid-2024, more than 20.3 million forcibly displaced and stateless people were hosted in the Americas,” reads a new “Americas Factsheet” from UNHCR, “including 5.8 million refugees and asylum-seekers, 8.1 million internally displaced persons, and 5.8 million other people in need of international protection.”

• “Americas Factsheet | October 2024“ (UN Refugee Agency, October 24, 2024).

By allowing states to carry out their own independent immigration policies, Texas’s SB4 law criminalizing border crossings could “upend immigration enforcement nationwide” if courts uphold the Texan state government’s argument that migrants constitute an “invasion,” Alejandro Serrano wrote at the Texas Tribune.

• Alejandro Serrano, “If It Survives in Court, Texas’ Immigration Law Could Upend Immigration Enforcement Nationwide“ (The Texas Tribune, October 24, 2024).

At Vox, Christian Paz pushed back on poll data showing over half of U.S. respondents favor a “mass deportation” campaign, like Donald Trump has been proposing. Paz pointed out that pollsters’ questions fail to capture the complexity or the real-life consequences of such a campaign.

• Christian Paz, “Polls Say Voters Back “Mass Deportation.” That’s Misleading.“ (Vox, October 25, 2024).

“Keeping migrants stuck in southern Mexico–and points further south–has been a perpetual U.S. objective,” write three reporters for the Daily Signal covering Mexico’s stepped-up 2024 policy of doing precisely that by busing several thousand migrants per month from the country’s north to southern cities like Villahermosa, Tabasco.

• David Agren, Kellen Mcgovern Jones, Virginia Allen, “With Its Control of Migrant Flow, Mexico Seeks to Play Key Role in Us Election“ (The Daily Signal, October 25, 2024).

Jenn Budd, whose book Against the Wall recounts a traumatic experience as a former Border Patrol agent, has compiled a database of agents who have been arrested. “This data is an undercount,” Budd wrote at her site.

• Jenn Budd, “Border Patrol Agents Committing Crimes.“ (Jenn Budd, October 24, 2024).

Border Report published an overview of electoral matchups in House of Representatives districts along the U.S.-Mexico border. Two—one in New Mexico and one in Arizona—are rated as “toss-ups” by the Cook Political Report.

• Fernie Ortiz, “Border Report Live: Border Races Key to Taking House“ (Border Report, October 25, 2024).

At Inside Climate News, Martha Pskowski covered the dwindling Rio Grande, the river that serves as the border between Texas and Mexico. The river’s bed is completely dry along about 200 miles of west Texas.

• Martha Pskowski, “Holding Out Hope on the Drying Rio Grande“ (Inside Climate News, October 24, 2024).

On the Right

• “Quiet Amnesty: How the Biden-Harris Administration Uses the Nation’s Immigration Courts to Advance an Open-Borders Agenda“ (U.S. House of Representatives Committee on the Judiciary, October 24, 2024).

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Developments

The federal judiciary’s Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals has upheld a district court’s earlier ruling that Customs and Border Protection’s (CBP) practice of “metering” asylum seekers at official border crossings is illegal. The term refers to stationing officers at the crossings’ borderline to turn back people without U.S. documentation, preventing them from setting foot on U.S. soil and asking for protection, while allowing only a small number of asylum seekers to access ports of entry each day.

The appeals court judges’ 2-1 decision determined, in the written opinion of Judge Michelle Friedland, that “a noncitizen who presents herself to a border official at a port of entry has arrived in the United States… whether she is standing just at the edge of the port of entry or somewhere within it.”

U.S. law states that a person physically present in the United States has the right to ask for asylum if they fear their life or freedom would be in danger upon return to their country. “You are not breaking the law by seeking asylum at a port of entry,” the Trump administration’s Homeland Security secretary, Kirstjen Nielsen, tweeted in June 2018, at the height of that year’s family separations crisis. “Metering,” however, has strictly limited asylum seekers’ ability to access ports of entry.

The decision striking down “metering” caps a seven-year legal battle led by the San Diego and Tijuana-based Al Otro Lado, along with the Center for Gender and Refugee Studies, the American Immigration Council, the Center for Constitutional Rights, and Democracy Forward, along with the law firms Mayer Brown and Vinson and Elkins.

CBP officially rescinded the metering policy in 2021. The Ninth Circuit’s October 23 decision does not appear to affect the Biden administration’s current policy of turning away nearly all asylum seekers who show up to ports of entry without having secured one of 1,450 daily appointments made using the CBP One smartphone app. A May 2024 Human Rights Watch report called this “digital metering.” Organizations involved in the “metering” case have filed a new lawsuit challenging turnbacks of asylum seekers without CBP One appointments.

• “Ninth Circuit Upholds Rights of Asylum Seekers, Rules “Metering” Turnbacks Unlawful“ (Center for Constitutional Rights, October 23, 2024).
• Edvard Pettersson, “‘Metering’ of Asylum-Seekers at Border Ruled Illegal by Ninth Circuit“ (Courthouse News, October 23, 2024).
• Daniel Wiessner, “Us Court Says ‘Metering’ Policy Limiting Asylum Applications Is Illegal“ (Reuters, Reuters, October 23, 2024).
• “Al Otro Lado @alotrolado_org on Twitter“ (Twitter, October 23, 2024).

Border Report and the Arizona Daily Star covered the fiscal year 2024 migration and border enforcement statistics that CBP published on October 22. Border Report noted that the past few months’ drop in Border Patrol migrant apprehensions could see some reversals amid rising migration in Panama’s Darién Gap region and reports of migrant “caravans” forming in Chiapas, Mexico’s southernmost state. The Daily Star noted that Border Patrol’s Tucson, Arizona sector saw the most migration for much of the year, though numbers have dropped sharply along with the Biden administration’s June asylum restrictions, and that fentanyl seizures declined in fiscal 2024 for the first time since the drug began appearing in the mid-2010s.

• Julian Resendiz, “El Paso, Tucson, San Diego Lead Nation in Migrant Encounters“ (Border Report, October 23, 2024).
• Emily Bregel, “Migrant Arrests Outside Ports Dropped 25% on U.S.-Mexico Border This Year“ (The Arizona Daily Star, October 23, 2024).

A “caravan” numbering perhaps 700 migrants, which departed Mexico’s far south at the beginning of the month, is walking in the southern state of Oaxaca, adjacent to the country’s southern border state of Chiapas. A Venezuelan man told the daily Milenio he worries that the possibility of securing CBP One appointments will end if Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump wins the November 5 U.S. election.

• Ramon Bragana, “Caravana Migrante “Rey de Reyes” Avanza Hacia Veracruz Desde Oaxaca“ (Milenio (Mexico), October 23, 2024).

Mexican authorities reported rescuing nine migrants from India, Nepal, and Bangladesh whom a criminal group had kidnapped for ransom in the southern border zone city of Tapachula, Chiapas. They reported no arrests of kidnappers.

• Jhonatan Gonzalez, “Tras Operativo, Liberan a Migrantes Retenidos en Tapachula, Chiapas“ (Milenio (Mexico), October 23, 2024).

Tapachula now leads all Mexican cities in perceptions of citizen insecurity, according to a survey from the Mexican government’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI). Ninety-two percent of Tapachula residents told surveyors that they fear crime. Chiapas, a border state through which large numbers of drugs and people are smuggled and trafficked, has experienced a sharp rise in organized crime violence over the past year.

The city’s mayor told EFE that Tapachula “concentrates 60 percent of the migrants in Mexico”; this estimate may be high, but the number of migrants lacking Mexican documentation and forced to wait there is very large.

• “Tapachula Es el Municipio Con Mayor Percepcion de Inseguridad de Mexico“ (EFE, Prensa Libre (Guatemala), October 23, 2024).

A CBP officer faces aggravated assault charges after he fired his weapon 11 times while off duty in an apparent road rage incident on a highway on-ramp in El Paso, Border Report reported.

• Melissa Luna, “Documents: Cbp Officer Fires Weapon 11 Times During Road Rage Incident on Border Highway“ (Border Report, October 23, 2024).

Bloomberg Law reported on Donald Trump’s intent to revoke Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for many migrants in the United States whom the program currently protects from deportation.

• Andrew Kreighbaum, “Trump Threatens Temporary Immigration Shield Soaring Under Biden“ (Bloomberg Law, October 23, 2024).

Peru’s government has added new restrictions on the approximately 1.54 million Venezuelan citizens residing in the country. These include new documentation requirements for employment and controls on financial remittances. The measures could reduce the number of Venezuelans who consider themselves “firmly settled” in the South American nation, potentially leading some to migrate elsewhere, including to the United States.

• “Mas Restricciones para los Migrantes Venezolanos en Peru“ (Efecto Cocuyo (Venezuela), October 23, 2024).

Analyses and Feature Stories

At his Substack newsletter, the Cato Institute’s Alex Nowrasteh published a detailed rebuttal of claims that migrants in the United States are committing crimes at a greater rate than native-born U.S. citizens. Arrest and conviction data indicate otherwise.

• Alex Nowrasteh, “Yes, You’re Still Imagining a Migrant Crime Spree“ (Alex Nowrasteh’s Deep Dives, October 23, 2024).

The UN Refugee Agency published its annual report for Mexico operations in 2023. Among findings are that nearly 400 mostly charity-run migrant shelters operate in the country, and that over 600 companies have committed to employing refugees inside Mexico.

• “UNHCR Mexico Annual Report 2023“ (UN Refugee Agency, October 23, 2024).

Iowa Public Radio, reporting from Iowa; Gothamist, reporting from Long Island, New York; and Politico, reporting from Rocky Mount, North Carolina, illustrated how the border security and migration debate is affecting congressional campaigns, particularly in swing districts, far from the U.S.-Mexico border.

• Katarina Sostaric, “How Iowans Running for Congress Are Talking About Immigration and the Border“ (Iowa Public Radio, October 23, 2024).
• Jon Campbell, “Outside the City, Democrats and Republicans Run on Outcry Over Migrants in Nyc“ (Gothamist, October 23, 2024).
• “This Race Will Test Dems’ Message on Immigration — Even Though It’s Nowhere Near the Border“ (Politico, October 23, 2024).

Reporting from the border town of Douglas, Arizona, Agénce France Presse echoed residents’ exasperation with politicians from elsewhere falsely portraying border communities as dangerous places in crisis.

• Romain Fonsegrives, “At Us Border, Frustration Over Immigration as Political Football“ (Agence France Presse, Barron’s, October 23, 2024).

On the Right

• David Agren, Kellen Mcgovern Jones, Virginia Allen, “Lost in the Move: When Children Cross Border, Some Disappear Into Darkness“ (The Daily Signal, October 24, 2024).
• Todd Bensman, “Hundreds of Thousands of Migrants Are Being Held in Southern Mexico Until Us Election Day — and Are Eager to Rush Border“ (Center for Immigration Studies, The New York Post, October 23, 2024).
• Jennie Taer, “Border Agents Caught 300 Migrants With Terror Ties, Including Isis — and It’s Still ‘Incredibly Easy’ for Them to Enter Us: Sources“ (The New York Post, October 23, 2024).

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Developments

Customs and Border Protection (CBP) released data about migration and enforcement at the U.S.-Mexico border during September, which was also the final month of the U.S. government’s 2024 fiscal year. Among key findings:

• Border Patrol apprehensions of migrants between ports of entry dropped 25 percent from 2023 to 2024 (from 2,045,838 to 1,530,523).
• Migrants who entered CBP custody at ports of entry, most with CBP One appointments, increased 41 percent from 2023 to 2024 (429,831 to 604,482). CBP had increased appointments to their current level of 1,450 per day in June 2023, near the end of the 2023 fiscal year.
• Combining Border Patrol and port-of-entry encounters, the nationalities most frequently encountered at the border in 2024 were Mexico (-9% from 2023), Venezuela (-2%), Guatemala (-7%), Cuba (+6%), Honduras (-34%), Colombia (-20%), Ecuador (+5%), Haiti (+16%), El Salvador (-12%), and China (+57%)
• 38 percent of migrants encountered in 2024 were members of family units, and another 5 percent were unaccompanied children. This is similar to 2023 (33 percent and 6 percent, respectively).
• In September, Border Patrol apprehended 53,858 people between ports of entry. That is similar to July and August, slightly less than September 2020 when Donald Trump was president during the pandemic, and 78 percent less than the record-setting month of December 2023. The Biden administration’s June asylum restrictions and a crackdown in Mexico continue to suppress migration levels.
• “Overall, southwest border deaths were down 30% comparing the fourth quarter of last fiscal year to this fiscal year,” CBP reported, without offering aggregate numbers.
• Seizures of fentanyl fell for the first time since the drug began appearing. CBP seized 21,148 pounds of the potent opioid in 2024, down from 26,718 pounds in 2023 (-26%). Similar to past years, 86 percent of fentanyl seizures occurred at border ports of entry. Of the remaining 14 percent seized by Border Patrol, 4 percent was seized from vehicles at the agency’s interior checkpoints.
• Seizures of cocaine increased 10 percent and methamphetamine increased 30 percent. Heroin fell 21 percent and marijuana 8 percent.
  
• “Cbp Releases September 2024 Monthly Update“ (U.S. Customs and Border Protection, October 22, 2024).
• Rafael Bernal, “September Border Patrol Encounters Lowest Since the Pandemic“ (The Hill, October 22, 2024).
• Dan Gooding, “Illegal Border Crossings Keep Falling as Election Day Grows Closer“ (Newsweek, October 22, 2024).
• Elliot Spagat, “Border Arrests Fall in September in Last Monthly Gauge Before Us Elections“ (Associated Press, Associated Press, October 22, 2024).

“We’ve reached almost 20 flights in 3 months, trying to discourage people from” migration through the Darién Gap region, Panama’s president, José Raúl Mulino, told reporters during a visit to France. Mulino was referring to stepped-up deportation flights being carried out with U.S. support. As a result, the Panamanian president added, migration through the Darién “has gone down (by around 20% so far this year compared to 2023), but my concern is the worsening of the crisis in Venezuela,” EFE reported.

• “Mulino: La Crisis Migratoria del Darien Es “Un Problema de Estados Unidos”“ (EFE, Swissinfo.ch, October 22, 2024).

NBC News obtained Department of Homeland Security (DHS) data indicating that the Department has identified about 600 people in the United States with possible ties to the Tren de Aragua, a Venezuelan criminal organization. Of those, about 100 are considered “confirmed members of the gang.” As about 600,000 citizens of Venezuela have been released into the United States in the 2020s, the DHS list covers perhaps 0.1 percent of that population.

• Julia Ainsley, “Dhs Has Identified More Than 600 Migrants With Possible Ties to Venezuelan Gang“ (NBC News, October 22, 2024).
• David Von Drehle, “Venezuelan Gangs Terrorizing My Hometown? This I Had to See.“ (The Washington Post, October 22, 2024).

Analyses and Feature Stories

A week from today (Wednesday, October 30, 5:00 Eastern), join WOLA, Alliance San Diego, the Eagle Pass Border Coalition, Hope Border Institute, and Human Rights Watch for an online discussion of excessive use of force by Texas state National Guard and police personnel on the borderline.

• “Texas’s Operation Lone Star: Abuse on the Borderline“ (WOLA, October 30, 2024).

The Migration Policy Institute published a study of migration trends at the border, coinciding with CBP’s release of September and fiscal 2024 data. The analysis finds that the drop in migration results from the Biden administration’s combination of asylum curbs, encouragement of other countries’ enforcement, and expansion of lawful migration pathways. It concludes that the migration reduction’s long-term persistence is impossible to predict given several factors, many beyond the Biden administration’s control.

• Ariel G. Ruiz Soto, Colleen Putzel-Kavanaugh, “With New Strategies at and Beyond the U.S. Border, Migrant Encounters Plunge“ (Migration Policy Institute, October 22, 2024).

A group of investigative journalism outlets published a report about “Border 911,” a non-profit led by Tom Homan, who served as acting Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) Director during the Trump administration. The report alleges that Homan’s group, linked to “dark money” efforts and border security contracting, uses disinformation about immigration, particularly the notion that migrants and asylum seekers constitute an “invasion,” to build political support for far-right policies and to undermine electoral processes.

• Francesca D’Annunzio, Jack Sapoch, Maria Polletta, Melissa del Bosque, Monica Camacho, “Border 911: The Misinformation Network Profiting Off the ‘Invasion’ Narrative“ (Arizona Center for Investigative Reporting, Lighthouse Reports, Palabra, Puente News Collaborative, Texas Observer, The Texas Observer, October 22, 2024).

If Donald Trump is elected, his promised “mass deportation” campaign would face fewer obstacles than during his first term, argued a USA Today analysis. It reported a poll finding 45 percent of respondents supporting mass deportation, 49 percent against.

• Aysha Bagchi, Bart Jansen, Lauren Villagran, “Donald Trump Has Promised a ‘Mass Deportation.’ It Would Cost Billions.“ (USA Today, October 22, 2024).

The Washington Examiner noted that Trump’s deportation plan, which the campaign has not described in detail, would face obstacles including its scale, ICE capacity, legal challenges, political backlash, and economic impacts.

• Anna Giaritelli, “Five Challenges to Trump Executing His Mass Deportation Plan“ (The Washington Examiner, October 22, 2024).

Among trends in the Mixed Migration Center’s latest quarterly report on Latin America highlights reduced migrant encounters at the U.S.-Mexico border, reduced Darién Gap migration, and a drop in asylum cases in Mexico. (Last week, Panama released data showing a September increase in Darién Gap migration, led by Venezuelan citizens, though migration remains below levels measured during the first half of 2024.)

• “Quarterly Mixed Migration Update Latin America and the Caribbean, Quarter 3, 2024“ (Mixed Migration Centre, October 22, 2024).

On the Right

• Adam Shaw, “Biden Admin Faces Scrutiny Over Response to ‘Significant Rise’ of Assaults on Border Patrol Agents“ (Fox News, October 22, 2024).
• Elizabeth Elkind, “‘It’s a Mess’: Vulnerable House Dem Shreds Biden on Border Crisis in ‘Closing Message’ of Campaign“ (Fox News, October 22, 2024).

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Developments

In a U.S.-assisted operation, Colombian police and judicial authorities arrested another 17 people, one of them Nicaraguan, for charging migrants $200 to $450 each to travel from Colombia’s Caribbean island department of San Andrés to Nicaragua by boat.

Four of the seventeen—including two local government officials from San Andrés—stand accused of charging migrants from Asia, particularly Vietnam, $2,000 to $2,500 each to fly from Colombia’s border with Ecuador to Nicaragua via San Andrés.

The San Andrés to Nicaragua route allows migrants to avoid the Darién Gap.

• “Funcionarios de Gobernacion de San Andres Traficarian Migrantes: Policia” (El Espectador (Colombia), October 21, 2024).
• “Nicaraguense Capturado en Colombia por Trafico de Migrantes Desde Medellin a Eeuu” (Nicaragua Investiga, October 21, 2024).

Border Report reported on an October 20 shootout between members of Mexico’s National Guard and members of a criminal group on a highway that follows Mexico’s side of the border between El Paso and Tornillo, Texas. The road has recently been upgraded, noted Border Report’s Julián Resendiz, but “some truckers have expressed misgivings about using the highway due to well-documented drug cartel activity in the area known as El Valle de Juarez (Valley of Juarez).”

• Julian Resendiz, “National Guard, Armed Civilians Clash on Border Highway” (Border Report, October 21, 2024).

A Breitbart report noted increased arrivals of asylum seekers turning themselves in to Border Patrol in mid-Texas’s Del Rio Sector. A Customs and Border Protection (CBP) source told Breitbart‘s Randy Clark, a former Border Patrol agent, that “nearly 160” unaccompanied children from Central and South American nations crossed into Eagle Pass within the past week.

• Bob Price, “Reports: 2,500 Migrants Depart Southern Mexico in Caravan Bound for U.S. Border” (Breitbart, October 21, 2024).

Analyses and Feature Stories

In the first article of a pre-election series, ProPublica published a detailed overview of how migration at the U.S.-Mexico border has shifted during the past few years, noting changes in nationalities and demographics and effects on the immigration court system, receiving communities, the U.S. labor market, and electoral politics. The investigation found that the newly arrived migrants have been “concentrated in relatively few places around the country.”

• Jeff Ernsthausen, Mica Rosenberg, “What the Data Reveals About U.S. Immigration Ahead of the 2024 Election” (ProPublica, October 21, 2024).

In response to NBC News revelation that 30 percent of Border Patrol’s Remote Video Surveillance System (RVSS) cameras are broken, Dave Maass of the Electronic Frontier Foundation argued that border surveillance technology is “political theater” and “a wasteful endeavor that is ill-equipped to respond to an ill-defined problem.”

• Dave Maass, “U.S. Border Surveillance Towers Have Always Been Broken” (Electronic Frontier Foundation, October 21, 2024).

NPR’s Adrian Florido reported from Florida about how some members of the state’s Venezuelan-American community are agreeing with Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump’s evidence-free demonization of recent Venezuelan migrants as “criminals” and voicing support for their deportation. Some of this attitude appears related to class differences between earlier migrants and newer arrivals, who tend to be poorer and often darker-skinned.

• Adrian Florido, “Trump Calls Venezuelan Migrants Criminals. Some Venezuelans Agree, Others Fight Back” (National Public Radio, October 21, 2024).

A column at Jacobin criticized NBC’s decision to delay screening Separated, the new Errol Morris documentary about the Trump administration’s family separation policy, until after the U.S. election.

• Eileen Jones, “Errol Morris’s Reminder of Trump’s Sadistic Border Policy” (Jacobin, October 21, 2024).

“As the Trump campaign’s rhetorical demonization of immigrants escalates, it is reasonable to wonder why Democrats and liberals around the world have decided to effectively abandon the issue to their adversaries,” reads a column at Newsweek from David Faris of Roosevelt University.

• David Faris, “Why Liberals Around the World Lost Support for Their Border Policies” (Roosevelt University, Newsweek, October 21, 2024).

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Developments

Two San Diego hospitals, Scripps Mercy Hospital and UC San Diego Medical Center, report 993 “severe falls” from the border wall so far this year (Scripps through August, UCSD through September). That is up 58 percent over falls recorded in all of 2023, the San Diego Union-Tribune reported. Pedro Rios of the American Friends Service Committee hypothesized that Mexico’s placement of troops in an area east of the city with little or no fencing might be leading more migrants, including those seeking to turn themselves in to authorities, to attempt to scale the wall.

• Paul Sisson, “Hospitals Report 58 Percent Increase in Border Wall Trauma Falls” (The San Diego Union-Tribune, October 20, 2024).

A Mother Jones investigation of the U.S. government’s search-and-rescue system for preventing the deaths of migrants in distress found “a scattershot emergency response system with little accountability, in which responsibility for saving migrants’ lives is divided among Border Patrol agents whose primary duty is law enforcement, not search and rescue; overtaxed county search and rescue teams; and unpaid volunteers from humanitarian groups.”

• Sarah Tory, How a Compromised Search and Rescue System in the Borderlands Leaves Migrants in Peril (Mother Jones, Thursday, October 17, 2024).

Another in a series of “caravans,” combining migrants from many nationalities, departed Mexico’s southern border-zone city of Tapachula, Chiapas on Sunday. Some participants in the large group said that they felt a need to get to U.S. soil before a transfer of power in the United States, as Republican candidate Donald Trump, who is tied in polls, has pledged to eliminate the use of the CBP One smartphone app and other legal migration pathways.

Mexico’s migration agency (National Migration Institute, INM) sought to discourage the movement by offering bus rides from Tapachula to Chiapas’s capital, Tuxtla Gutiérrez, about 150 miles away. “They told us that they are going to give us a 10-day permit there so that we can wait for a CBP One appointment and they will take us to Tuxtla Gutiérrez,” a Honduran man told EFE.

• “A Group of 2,000 Migrants in Southern Mexico Depart for the Us Weeks Before Election” (Associated Press, Associated Press, October 20, 2024).
• “Miles de Migrantes Venezolanos Arman una Caravana Hacia ee.uu.” (EFE, October 20, 2024).

El Paso, Texas municipal officials told Border Report that they are monitoring the caravans moving through Mexico’s far south, although “we don’t know what part of the border they’re going.”

• Julian Resendiz, “El Paso Prepares for Possible Arrival of Migrant Caravans” (Border Report, October 18, 2024).

The Mexican government’s secretaries of interior, foreign affairs, army, and navy met on October 18 “to review the current situation of irregular migration crossing the country, and the repatriation of Mexicans,” Milenio reported.

• Pedro Dominguez, “Reunion Entre Fuerzas Armadas, Sre y Segob” (Milenio (Mexico), October 18, 2024).

Mexican civil society organizations making up the “Central Border Monitoring Group” denounced that Mexico City authorities have been arranging to bus migrants to states further north, like Zacatecas and San Luis Potosí, “without clear information or the delivery of regular transit documents.”

• Jared Laureles, Jessica Xantomila, “Retiran a Migrantes de Cdmx y los Abandonan en Otras Urbes, Acusan” (La Jornada (Mexico), October 20, 2024).

NPR reported on a ballot measure in Arizona, Proposition 314, that—like the highly controversial SB4 in Texas—would make it a violation of state law to cross the U.S.-Mexico border without authorization. Advocates worry that, if the measure passes, local police may profile people they suspect of having crossed illegally, demanding that they “show their papers” anywhere in the state.

• Ximena Bustillo, “Arizona Voters Will Soon Decide if Illegal Border Crossings Should Be a State Crime” (National Public Radio, October 18, 2024).

Home building firms told NBC News that presidential candidate Donald Trump’s plans for a “mass deportation” campaign would decimate their labor force and cripple their industry. “You’d lose so many people that you couldn’t put a crew together to frame a house,” said the CEO of a Texas-based subcontracting firm.

• Jing Feng, Nicole Acevedo, “Trump Vows to Deport Millions. Builders Say It Would Drain Their Crews and Drive Up Home Costs.” (NBC News, October 19, 2024).

Municipal police in Tijuana are offering to have agents inspect northbound vehicles in order to shorten border crossing times at the busy San Ysidro port of entry, Border Report reported.

• Salvador Rivera, “Tijuana Police Offer to Inspect Vehicles at Border to Expedite Crossing Times” (Border Report, October 18, 2024).

Analyses and Feature Stories

A New York Times analysis contended that Donald Trump is “doubling down” on the border and immigration as the issue that can win the election for him, despite poll data showing voters more concerned about economic issues.

• Jonathan Swan, Maggie Haberman, Ruth Igielnik, “Trump Thinks the Border Got Him Elected in 2016. He’s Convinced It Will Do So Again.” (The New York Times, October 19, 2024).

Amid Democrats’ rightward pivot on border and immigration issues during the 2024 election cycle, Vox reporter Nicole Narea wrote that if elected, Kamala Harris would probably adopt a “two-pronged” approach, keeping current curbs on asylum and boosting border security while also maintaining alternative legal pathways for migrants.

• Nicole Narea, “How Tough Would a President Kamala Harris Be on Immigrants?” (Vox, October 18, 2024).

“The Mexican government reported 200,289 Venezuelans ‘in an irregular migratory situation’ in the first half of 2024,” EFE reported. That is 215 percent more than during the first half of 2023. According to this estimate, Venezuela is the number-one nationality of undocumented migrants in Mexico, making up over a quarter of the total.

• “Migrantes de Nicaragua, Cuba y Venezuela Quedan en el Limbo en Mexico por Medidas de Ee. Uu.” (EFE, Confidencial (Nicaragua), October 20, 2024).

“Half of the fentanyl coming into the U.S. is seized at the Mariposa Port of Entry” in Nogales, Arizona, CBP’s top official, Troy Miller, told the Arizona Republic. The port, west of downtown with much cargo traffic, is now able to scan about 50 percent of cargo, Miller added.

• Raphael Romero Ruiz, “Cbp Reports Declining Border Crossings and Record Fentanyl Busts in 2024” (The Arizona Republic, October 19, 2024).

Increasing organized crime violence in Mexico’s southern state of Tabasco may be related to the Mexican government’s mass busing of migrants to the state’s capital, Villahermosa, mainly from the U.S. border region, according to an InSight Crime analysis. An already existing conflict between organized crime factions in the state is being exacerbated by “large sums” that can be gained “from extorting vulnerable migrants” being bused there at a rate of about 10,000 people per month.

• Peter Appleby, “Is Mexico Fueling a Gang War by Sending Migrants to Tabasco?” (InsightCrime, October 18, 2024).

On the Right

• Josh Christenson, “Biden Refused to Reinstate Trump-Era Border Policies Because ‘Mexico Doesn’t Want That,’ Speaker Mike Johnson Says” (The New York Post, October 18, 2024).
• Selene Rodriguez, “Fixing the Border Starts With Calling Mexican Cartels Terrorists” (Texas Public Policy Foundation, The Federalist, October 18, 2024).

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Developments

On a visit to San Diego, the senior official performing the duties of Customs and Border Protection’s (CBP) commissioner, Troy Miller, highlighted “Operation Apollo,” which the local NBC affiliate described as “a relatively new strategy to decrease the amount of apprehensions made by agents through increased enforcement, harsher penalties for offenders and heightened collaboration with relevant agencies.”

Soon, perhaps today, CBP will publish information about migration and drug seizures through September 30, the final day of the U.S. federal government’s 2024 fiscal year.

• Dana Williams, “During San Diego Visit, Acting Border Patrol Boss Says Enforcement Has Been Enhanced” (NBC San Diego, October 17, 2024).

Two Venezuelan men were shot, one fatally, in an incident at a market near downtown Ciudad Juárez on October 16.

• Julian Resendiz, “Two Venezuelan Men Shot in Head in Juarez” (Border Report, October 17, 2024).

Analyses and Feature Stories

A team of Washington Post reporters published a dispatch from south Texas about the impacts of border wall construction in the Rio Grande Valley region. The border river’s unstable course requires segments of barrier to be built as much as two miles inland, “leaving thousands of acres in the liminal space between the border and the barrier.” That leaves plenty of U.S. soil upon which people have the right to request asylum.

• Frank Hulley-Jones, Kirsten Luce, Laris Karklis, Nick Miroff, “Between the Border and the Wall” (The Washington Post, October 18, 2024).

An explainer from Ariel Ruiz Soto of the Migration Policy Institute pointed out that, according to “a growing volume of research,” immigrants not only commit fewer crimes in the United States, but they may even “lower criminal activity, especially violent crime, in places with inclusive policies and social environments where immigrant populations are well established.”

• Ariel G. Ruiz Soto, “Explainer: Immigrants and Crime in the United States” (Migration Policy Institute, October 17, 2024).

“I have organized around immigration for over two decades, during which Democrats repeatedly succumbed to their opponents’ playbook and positioned the issue as a national security and public safety issue,” Silky Shah of Detention Watch wrote at Inquest. “Yet even in this climate, there is no escaping how surreal this moment is” amid a nationwide rightward shift. Shah concludes, “In many ways, the current conditions require us to return to the basics of organizing and movement building.”

• Silky Shah, “Preparing for the Worst” (Detention Watch, Inquest, October 17, 2024).

At Redacción Regional, Bryan Avelar reported from Mexico’s southern border-zone city of Tapachula, where tens of thousands of migrants, most seeking to make it to the United States, are stranded by Mexico’s efforts to block them and long waits for CBP One appointments. The city “is a kind of paradise for the trafficking of migrant women,” Avelar wrote.

• Bryan Avelar, “Diarios Desde Babel: La Trampa-Chula” (Redacción Regional (Central America), October 17, 2024).

San Antonio’s ABC affiliate featured the work of Operation Identification, a nonprofit at Texas State University that is helping to identify the remains of migrants found in the Texas borderlands and provide closure to their loved ones.

• Zaria Oates, “Nonprofit at Texas State University Works to Identify Unknown Remains Along Texas-Mexico Border” (KSAT (San Antonio), October 17, 2024).

Fernando Castro, a former Guatemalan consular official, wrote a column in Guatemala’s Prensa Libre noting recent government efforts to link up with U.S. medical examiners—especially in Pima County, Arizona—to help relatives of missing migrants contribute DNA samples that could match them to migrant remains recovered near the U.S.-Mexico border.

• Fernando Castro, “Se Incrementan Desaparecimientos y Muertes de Migrantes en Frontera Sur de Ee. Uu.” (La Hora (Guatemala), October 17, 2024).

A report from the U.S. Committee for Refugees and Immigrants, supported by the International Institute of New England, highlighted the severe humanitarian consequences of recent U.S. policies restricting the right to seek asylum at the U.S.-Mexico border. Asylum seekers, the report finds, face worsened risks of kidnapping, extortion, and abuse while waiting in Mexico; Black and LGBTQIA+ migrants face particular discrimination and targeting.

• “Mariposas de la Frontera” (International Institute of New England (IINE), U.S. Committee for Refugees and Immigrants (USCRI), U.S. Committee for Refugees and Immigrants (USCRI), October 17, 2024).
• Sarah Betancourt, “Report Says Migration Down at the Border, at the Cost of Humanitarian Law” (Boston Public Radio, October 17, 2024).

On the Right

• Byron York, “Finally Faced With Hard Questions on Border, Harris Has No Answers” (The Washington Examiner, October 17, 2024).

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Developments

Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate for president, spent nearly half of a contentious interview with FOX News host Bret Baier discussing the border and migration.

The New York Times noted that Baier, the FOX host, “repeatedly interrupted the vice president and tried to talk over her.” When able to talk, Harris often returned to her central border talking point: Donald Trump’s opposition to a bill, which failed in the Senate in February following negotiations between Democratic and Republican senators, that would have hired more border officers and agents, increased migrant detention, and tightened asylum availability.

Asked, “Do you regret the decision to terminate Remain in Mexico at the beginning of your administration?” Harris did not address the controversial program but pointed out that, in its early days, the administration backed a comprehensive immigration reform bill (which failed to move through Congress in 2021).

• Bret Baier, “Full Interview: Vice President Kamala Harris Sits Down With Bret Baier in ‘Special Report’ Exclusive“ (Fox News, October 16, 2024).
• Katie Rogers, Nicholas Nehamas, “6 Takeaways From Harris’s Contentious Interview on Fox News“ (The New York Times, October 16, 2024).

At Vox, Christian Paz viewed Harris’s responses to Baier as ceding political ground to immigration hardliners: “The Vice President had a chance to defend immigrants on Fox News. She passed.”

• Christian Paz, “Kamala Harris and the Problem With Ceding the Argument“ (Vox, October 16, 2024).

In a debate between Pennsylvania Senate candidates, incumbent Democrat Bob Casey attacked his Republican challenger, Dave McCormick, for joining Donald Trump in opposing the February compromise Senate bill. “I don’t know why he wouldn’t support that,” Casey said. “It doesn’t make any sense when he knows that we could advance the ball based upon the expertise of the Border Patrol.”

• Christen Smith, “Casey, Mccormick Challenge Border Security Policies“ (The Center Square, October 16, 2024).

The DeConcini border port of entry in Nogales, Arizona was closed for a few hours yesterday afternoon after a Customs and Border Protection (CBP) officer shot and wounded a man who attempted to drive through a vehicle lane at the crossing.

• Paul Ingram, “Border Officer Shoots, Wounds Man Attempting to Drive Through Deconcini Crossing in Nogales“ (The Tucson Sentinel (Tucson Arizona), October 16, 2024).

Texas police reported apprehending a group of 204 migrants, including 47 unaccompanied children, near the border city of Eagle Pass. This is part of Border Patrol’s Del Rio Sector, which has experienced an increase in arrivals of large groups of migrants seeking to turn themselves in to authorities over the past few weeks.

• Billal Rahman, “200 Illegal Immigrants Apprehended in Texas“ (Newsweek, October 17, 2024).

New U.S. asylum restrictions and Mexico’s policy of transporting migrants to the country’s south are increasing pressure in Chiapas, Mexico’s southernmost state, where large groups have formed this month into so-called “caravans.” The groups walking through Chiapas, Oaxaca, and Tlaxcala states, numbering as many as 1,000 each, intend to reach Mexico City, either to petition Mexican authorities for faster asylum processes or other documentation, or to disperse and seek to reach the U.S. border from there.

• Julian Resendiz, “4,000 Migrants Headed for Us, Trying to Beat Trump to the Punch“ (Border Report, October 16, 2024).
• Billal Rahman, “New Migrant Caravan Approaching Us-Mexico Border“ (Newsweek, October 17, 2024).

Mexican soldiers who fired on a vehicle carrying migrants in Chiapas on October 1, killing six of them, “will be tried under military laws, a key issue for human rights activists who say the process lacks transparency,” Reuters reported. A Mexican military press release stated that two soldiers began shooting after hearing “detonations.” Reporter Lizbeth Díaz spoke to three residents of the area where the incident occurred, who “said they heard no explosions.”

• Lizbeth Diaz, “Mexico Military’s Role in Migrant Massacre Comes Under Sharp Scrutiny“ (Reuters, Reuters, October 16, 2024).

Ecuador’s El Universo told the story of Melissa Barzola, a Guayaquil resident who migrated to Mexico via the Darién Gap and secured a CBP One appointment in Ciudad Juárez, only to be kidnapped from the bus in which she was traveling in mid-September, likely in Durango or Chihuahua, Mexico. The kidnappers demanded $5,000 from her family in Ecuador; they mortgaged their house to pay the ransom, but Barzola has not been released.

• “‘Carteles Nos Pedian $ 5.000 de Rescate o No la Soltaban, Pusimos en Hipoteca la Casita de Mi Madre para Pagar’, Denuncia Familia de Guayaquilena Secuestrada en Mexico“ (El Universo (Guayaquil Ecuador), October 16, 2024).

Analyses and Feature Stories

At Foreign Affairs, Andrea Flores of FWD.us, a former Biden administration official, pointed out the failure of repeated crackdowns to control migration or bring security to the border. While fixing the U.S. asylum system would help greatly, she argued, it is no substitute for fundamentally updating U.S. immigration laws that mostly date back to 1990. “The overwhelmed asylum system is not the cause of the border crisis but rather a consequence of the United States’ failure to develop a coherent response to global shifts in irregular migration,” Flores wrote.

• Andrea Flores, “Why Washington Has Failed to Solve the Border Crisis“ (fwd.us, Foreign Affairs, October 17, 2024).

The American Immigration Council’s Aaron Reichlin-Melnick published an overview of “the current state of the border” at the organization’s Immigration Impact blog. It notes that crackdowns in Mexico and in U.S. asylum access have brought Border Patrol apprehensions to relatively low levels, a “fragile equilibrium” threatened by “signs that the slow-down in migration is ending” in the Darién Gap and through Central America.

• Aaron Reichlin-Melnick, “The Current State of the Border: Crossings Remain Low While Pressure Builds in Southern Mexico“ (American Immigration Council, October 16, 2024).

The Dallas Morning News published a status report about the ongoing campaign of Texas’s state attorney general, Ken Paxton (R), against nonprofits assisting migrants in the state. Paxton accuses groups like El Paso’s respected Annunciation House shelter network of encouraging unauthorized migration by providing shelter and aid.

• Aaron Torres, “Intent on Slowing Illegal Immigration, Texas Is Fighting Charities That Help Migrants“ (The Dallas Morning News, October 16, 2024).

On a drive along Arizona’s border, Los Angeles Times reporter Jeffrey Fleishman talked to migrants, volunteers, ranchers, and other community members about the region’s humanitarian, political, and security complexities. Fleischmann heard calls for greater border security from some, and for immigration reform from others, in a region where the number of migrants dying in the desert remains very high.

• Jeffrey Fleishman, “Heat, Thirst and Rosaries: A Drive Along Arizona’s Border With Mexico“ (The Los Angeles Times, October 17, 2024).

The independent Cuba-focused media outlet El Toque pointed out that CBP One appointments at the U.S.-Mexico border now rival the Biden administration’s humanitarian parole program as the best option available for people fleeing the island.

• Ernesto Eimil, “¿Cbp One Facilita Mas la Entrada de Migrantes Cubanos Que el Parole Humanitario?“ (El Toque (Cuba), October 16, 2024).

FOX News reported on alleged U.S. activities of Tren de Aragua, the Venezuelan criminal organization that some U.S. politicians are using to portray all Venezuelan migrants as threatening due to its small presence among those fleeing the economically depressed South American dictatorship.

• Adam Shaw, Bonny Chu, Chris Pandolfo, “Who Is Tren de Aragua? Vicious Venezuelan Gang ‘Following in the Path of Ms-13’ in America“ (Fox News, October 16, 2024).

On the Right

• Byron York, “What Bill Clinton’s Gaffe Says About Harris and the Border“ (The Washington Examiner, October 16, 2024).